Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The report analyzes the scale increment, yield performance, and credit - bond allocation changes of amortized bond funds in Q4 2025 and forecasts the 2026 opening scale [2][11] - In Q4 2025, the scale of amortized bond funds increased steadily, but they faced yield - decline pressure. The credit - bond allocation intensity slowed down [3][4] - In 2026, the opening scale of amortized bond funds is expected to reach nearly 650 billion yuan, and credit bonds remain an important allocation option [6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q4 Amortized Bond Fund Scale Growth - In Q4 2025, the scale of amortized bond funds increased by 37.4 billion yuan, reaching about 1.52 trillion yuan. The increment mainly came from the small - scale expansion of some products that did not reach the scale limit after opening for redemption [3][15] - Affected by the interest - rate decline, the amortized bond funds opened in 2025 faced yield - decline pressure. The median of the Q4 2025 fund net - value growth rate of products opened in the first three quarters showed a quarterly decreasing trend [3][19] 2. Q4 Open Amortized Bond Funds' Credit - Bond Allocation Intensity Slowed Down - In Q4 2025, open amortized bond funds continued to increase credit - bond allocation, with the credit - bond holding scale and proportion rising. The credit - bond holding value reached 446 billion yuan, an increase of 153.3 billion yuan from the end of Q3, and the proportion in the total bond holding value increased from 15% to 22.3% [3][22] - Compared with the first three quarters, the credit - bond allocation intensity of Q4 open products slowed down. For products opened for the first time in Q4, the credit - bond holding proportion dropped to 45%. The possible reasons are the reduced cost - effectiveness of credit bonds and their disadvantages in actual construction and pledge financing [4][27] - Among the 4 products opened for the second time in Q4, 3 had a small - scale increase. Although they still focused on credit - bond holdings, the credit - bond holding proportion decreased slightly, and the allocation focus shifted to inter - bank certificates of deposit and financial bonds [4][32] - One 24 - month - closed - period product restarted operation in Q4, but its Q4 holding data was not disclosed. Another 12 - month - closed - period product entered the suspension - operation state after opening for redemption in December 2025 [5][33] 3. 2026 Amortized Bond Fund Opening Scale Nearly 650 Billion Yuan - The top - five held credit bonds of Q4 open products preferred medium - to high - rated varieties. The proportion of implicit ratings of AA+ and above increased compared with products opened in the first three quarters [36] - In 2026, the opening scale of amortized bond funds is expected to be about 645.1 billion yuan. The opening scale and product closed - period vary significantly in different periods [6][40]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 29 日 [Table_Title] 美联储按下暂停，鲍威尔未"抗争" 1 月 29 日，美联储暂停降息，维持 3.5-3.75%。沃勒和米兰持异议，支持降息 25bp。资产表现方面，美 元、美债利率冲高回落，黄金先小幅回调再冲高，美股波动不大。 第一，美联储声明对经济和劳动力市场转向略偏乐观。1 月会议声明指出，经济活动"稳步"扩张 （solid），而 12 月会议声明的对应表述为"温和"（moderate）。声明指出"就业增长保持低位，失业率出现一 些企稳迹象"，而且删除了 12 月会议中关于就业下行风险的表述。表述略偏乐观，但未明显超出预期。北京时间 3：00 声明发布后，2 年期美债收益率小幅上行接近 1bp，美元指数上涨 0.18%，市场反应不大。 第二，鲍威尔讲话整体中性，并未进一步抗争。从市场反应来看，3：30 新闻发布会开始后，2 年和 10 年 美债利率一度下行 2bp 左右，美元指数下跌 0.3%，黄金冲高上涨接近 0.9%，标普涨约 0.2%。鲍威尔的讲话整 体偏中性，但打消了市场对于司法部调查引发鲍威尔更趋鹰 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates that the stock market is experiencing a differentiated trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly loosening its "4140 constraint," rising by 0.27% to 4151 points, while the ChiNext and small-cap stocks have seen a pullback after leading the market previously [1] - The overall market remains in a fluctuating framework, with short-term upward pressure on indices, while the mid-cap indices are more favorable for participation [2] - The non-ferrous metals sector has reached a historical high in terms of crowding, with significant increases in various metal indices, indicating strong performance driven by impressive earnings and rising commodity prices [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is expected to see a rotation, potentially moving towards upstream areas such as PCB materials and semiconductor equipment, following a strong performance in 2025 [3] - The report highlights a narrative around cloud service price increases, with major companies like Google and Amazon announcing significant price hikes, which could benefit cloud service providers and related sectors [3] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a continued trend of dividend recovery, with indices reflecting strong performance, particularly in technology and innovative pharmaceuticals [3] Group 3 - The central bank maintains a net injection of liquidity despite the pressure of large reverse repos maturing, indicating a supportive stance for the market [4] - The report discusses potential new monetary policy tools that may be introduced by the central bank, which could enhance liquidity management and support market expectations [5][6] - The bond market is expected to remain in a range-bound state, with short-term rates stable and long-term rates fluctuating within a defined range [6] Group 4 - The commodity market is seeing a resurgence in bullish sentiment, particularly in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, with significant inflows of capital into these areas [7] - Gold prices are reaching new highs driven by a combination of dollar credit reassessment and geopolitical risks, indicating strong demand for safe-haven assets [8] - The aluminum market is experiencing a rally as funds shift towards assets with financial attributes, reflecting a broader trend of capital moving away from overvalued sectors [9]

Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 1.09%, outperforming first-level bond funds (0.6%), second-level bond funds (0.44%), and mixed bond funds (0.31%) [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the median return for convertible bond funds was 22.43%, significantly higher than first-level bond funds (2.06%), second-level bond funds (4.66%), and mixed bond funds (5.49%) [1] Fund Scale and Demand - In Q4 2025, the scale of second-level bond funds increased by 2506 billion CNY to reach 15535 billion CNY, while first-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw decreases of 142.5 billion CNY and 7 billion CNY, respectively [1] - The net subscription for second-level bond funds in Q4 2025 was 2344 billion units, while first-level bond funds faced a net redemption of 186 billion units [19] Convertible Bond Holdings - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond holdings of first-level bond funds increased by 0.32 percentage points to 7.97%, while second-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw declines of 1.07 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively [33] - Public funds focused on increasing holdings in bank bonds, as well as in sectors like new energy, cyclical stocks, and military-related bonds [40] Investment Strategy Insights - The demand for fixed-income plus funds is robust, with second-level bond funds becoming the primary vehicle for this demand, while first-level bond and convertible bond fund scales have marginally declined [3] - Institutions with equity allocation permissions are shifting their demand from first-level bond funds to second-level bond and mixed bond products due to the high valuation of convertible bonds [3]

[Table_Title2] 妙可蓝多(600882) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600882 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价（元)： | 32.46/17.62 | | 目标价格（元）： | | 总市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | 最新收盘价（元）： | 22.78 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 510.05 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 12 月末至今，公司发布一系列公告：12 月 27 日关于参股并购基金进展及相关风险的提示性公 告，12 月 30 日关于控股股东增持公司股份及后续增持计划的公告，1 月 26 日关于副董事长、总经理、行政总 经理离任暨聘任总经理以及变更法定代表人的公告等。 证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 利空落地，专注经营进入新征程 分析判断: ► 参股并购基金相关风险影响确认 2025 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Insights - The company is positioned to benefit from the trend of returning to hometowns and diversification in public examination training, launching a new class type that breaks exam boundaries based on subject types. The company is expected to achieve significant growth in the number of training centers and profitability over the next three years [1][3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 3.31 billion, 3.94 billion, and 4.68 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 324 million, 400 million, and 596 million yuan, indicating substantial growth rates [1][5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in China's public examination training sector, with over 330,000 students trained and more than 1,000 learning centers as of December 31, 2024. The education business has been continuously injected into the company since 2023 [2][12] - The company has undergone significant changes in ownership and structure, with a complete injection of its education business expected in 2024 [12][36] Industry Analysis - The public examination training market is projected to reach approximately 500 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.54% from 2025 to 2027. The company is expected to capture a significant share of this market [3][44] - Despite a decline in recruitment numbers for national examinations in 2026, the overall trend in registration numbers remains stable, with a 12% increase in national examination registrations in 2026 [3][47] Competitive Landscape - The company possesses strong research and development capabilities, a high-quality teaching staff, and a solid reputation for high pass rates, which contribute to its competitive advantage in the market [4][44] - The company has successfully integrated AI technology into its teaching methods, enhancing the effectiveness of its instructors [4] Growth Drivers - The introduction of new class types and the expansion of training centers are expected to drive revenue growth and improve profit margins over the coming years [1][4] - The company anticipates reaching over 320 training centers by the first quarter of 2026, with projected profits of around 1 billion yuan [1] Financial Projections - The company forecasts significant revenue growth, with total revenues expected to increase from 3.31 billion yuan in 2025 to 4.68 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 17%, 19%, and 19% [1][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 1.65 yuan in 2025 to 3.03 yuan in 2027, indicating strong profitability potential [1][5]

证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 利空落地，专注经营进入新征程 [Table_Title2] 妙可蓝多(600882) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 600882 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价（元)： | 32.46/17.62 | | 目标价格（元）： | | 总市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | 最新收盘价（元）： | 22.78 | 自由流通市值(亿元) | 116.19 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 510.05 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 2025 年 12 月末至今，公司发布一系列公告：12 月 27 日关于参股并购基金进展及相关风险的提示性公 告，12 月 30 日关于控股股东增持公司股份及后续增持计划的公告，1 月 26 日关于副董事长、总经理、行政总 经理离任暨聘任总经理以及变更法定代表人的公告等。 分析判断: ► 参股并购基金相关风险影响确认 2025 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：科技归来 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 1 月 27 日， 股市低开高走，科技板块重新升温，上证指数几经周折，尾盘再度收于 4140 点，资金经历短期 纠结后，继续涌向双创领域，科创综指、创业板指单日上涨 1.72%、0.71%。"股债跷跷板"效应成为日内债市 定价主导变量，风险偏好小幅提振的背景下，债市收益率普遍上行。 权益市场缩量上涨。万得全 A上涨 0.14%，全天成交额 2.92 万亿元，较昨日（1 月 26 日）缩量 3592 亿 元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 1.35%，恒生科技上涨 0.50%。南向资金净流出 6.35 亿港元，其中中国移动和紫金 矿业分别净流出 11.47 亿港元和 8.43 亿港元，而腾讯控股净流入 10.24 亿港元。 指数呈现 V 型走势。早盘 4000+只股票下跌，万得全 A 跌幅一度达 1.40%。不过前期在窄幅震荡区间聚集的 筹码，支撑指数从负转正。正如我们在《暗流涌动》中提及，这部分筹码在牛市延续的共识下进 ...

证券研究报告|固收研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 27 日 [Table_Title] 2025 年四季报出炉，个券机会显现 [Table_Title2] 公募 REITs 业绩点评系列 [Table_Summary] 根据交易所相关规则指引，公募 REITs 基金管理人应当在每 季度结束之日起 15 个工作日内，编制和披露季度报告。2026年 1 月 22 日各 REITs 发布四季度报告，整体来看，不同资产类型 经营情况表现显著分化，经营情况良好的个券得到市场追捧。 在四季报披露窗口期带动下，REITs 市场迎来一波放量上涨 行情，四季报披露当周（2026 年 1 月 19-23 日）日均成交量、 日均成交额、日均换手率环比分别增长 44.51%、46.63%、 0.20pct，中证 REITs 全收益指数周度上涨 2.17%。 ►四季报后：继续关注消费板块，挖掘优质高分派率个券 四 季 报 披露当周各板块普涨，涨幅靠前的是新型设施 （+5.87%）和消费设施（+4.13%），涨幅靠后的是两类收费型 REITs，分别为能源设施（+0.88%）和交通设施（+1.69%）。 全市场 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [4]. Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the company achieved record production of 1.23 million pounds of U₃O₈, representing a 15% quarter-on-quarter increase and a 93% year-on-year increase. The sales volume reached 1.43 million pounds, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 168% and a year-on-year increase of 186% [1][2]. - The average realized price for U₃O₈ in Q4 2025 was $71.8 per pound, reflecting a 7% increase both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year [1]. - The unit production cost decreased to $39.7 per pound, down 5% from the previous quarter and 6% year-on-year [1]. Summary by Sections Production and Operations - The mining activities at LHM accelerated, with total mined volume reaching 5.53 million tons, leading to an increase in ore and low-grade ore stockpiles. The processing plant achieved an average ore feed grade of 524 ppm and a recovery rate of 91% [2][6]. - The company expects to complete its capacity enhancement plan by mid-2026, aiming for an annual production target of 4 to 4.4 million pounds of U₃O₈ [2]. Financial Performance - On October 16, 2025, the company successfully completed a share purchase plan (SPP) with overwhelming support, receiving subscription applications totaling over AUD 138 million. The company accepted AUD 100 million of these applications [3]. - A debt restructuring was completed with lenders, reducing the overall debt from $150 million to $110 million, enhancing liquidity following successful equity financing [5]. Financial Metrics - The average realized price for U₃O₈ was $71.8 per pound in Q4 2025, compared to $67.4 in Q3 2025 [6]. - The total capital expenditure for the quarter was $1.9 million, with exploration expenditure at $0.5 million [6].