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公募REITs系列之三:顺丰深港双平台,优质仓储物流REITs的配置窗口期
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-22 05:05
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The logistics industry is showing positive trends, but the warehousing rental market is adopting a "price - for - volume" strategy due to supply shocks. The current high - rent period of Southern SF Logistics REIT is a window of opportunity for investment, and investors who meet the income conditions can consider allocating it at an appropriate time [1][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Logistics activities are improving, but warehousing facilities are rented at the expense of price for volume - **Logistics industry boom has significantly increased, and the proportion of logistics storage costs has been stable with a slight increase**: In April 2025, China's Logistics Prosperity Index was 51.1%, remaining in the expansion range. The warehousing logistics industry is cyclical, affected by e - commerce promotions and manufacturing business peaks. In 2024, the total social logistics cost was 19.0 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, and the storage cost was 6.4 trillion yuan, accounting for 34% of the total social logistics cost [11][15]. - **The domestic high - standard warehouse industry has a "one - super - many - strong" pattern, and the supply shock will continue**: The domestic high - standard warehouse industry is highly concentrated, with GLP having a leading market share. Different development entities have increased the supply of high - standard warehouses. Due to the slowdown of macro - economic recovery and continuous supply release, the market generally adopts a "price - for - volume" strategy, but still faces short - term challenges of falling rents and rising vacancy rates [20][24]. - **Domestic warehousing logistics REITs are also facing a "price - for - volume" situation, and rents have declined**: As of May 16, 2025, 9 warehousing logistics REITs have been listed in China, involving 31 underlying assets. In 2025, the operating occupancy rates and rent levels of these REITs are still under pressure, and many projects will adopt a more aggressive "price - for - volume" strategy [31][35]. 3.2 SF Hong Kong REIT performs well and is an effective reference for domestic REITs - **SF Holdings adopts a self - operated logistics model, providing stable demand for Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs**: SF Holdings is the largest comprehensive logistics service provider in China and Asia and the fourth - largest in the world. It has many key site resources such as logistics industrial parks, which can provide potential rental demand and expansion assets for its REITs [41][44]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has been in operation for many years, with a high proportion of related tenants but stable performance**: Since its listing in 2021, SF REIT has been operating stably. Its first - largest tenant is the SF Holdings Group, and the rental area of SF Group tenants in 2024 accounted for 80.3% of the rentable area. The overall occupancy rate of its 4 properties has remained above 98% in the past three years [51][66]. - **The valuation of SF Hong Kong REIT has been adjusted downward, and the downward pressure on warehousing logistics assets still exists**: Affected by the decrease in occupancy rate and rent, the valuation of SF REIT decreased by 8.9% in 2024. It will face the renewal test of related tenants in 2026, and the subsequent lease term, rent, and increase rate need to be evaluated [68][70]. - **SF Hong Kong REIT has experienced multiple market cycles, and the low stock price has led to a dividend yield of over 7%**: Since its listing, SF REIT has experienced multiple market cycles and has been in a discounted state for a long time. From 2021 - 2024, its annualized distribution yields were 7.9%, 9.5%, 10.7%, and 8.8% respectively [73][74]. 3.3 Southern SF Logistics REIT, cherish the window period of the current high - rent period - **The underlying assets of SF's domestic REIT are sorting centers, which are important sites for express delivery services**: The underlying assets of Southern SF Logistics REIT include three projects in Shenzhen, Wuhan, and Hefei, with a total asset valuation of about 3.041 billion yuan. The sorting center area accounts for about 55% of the total rentable area, and the income accounts for a relatively high proportion [79][82]. - **The asset competition between the Hong Kong and Shenzhen REITs has eased, and each has its own regional focus**: SF REIT has the pre - emptive right to purchase SF Group's assets. In the future, SF Holdings will fully negotiate when selling assets to the two REITs. SF REIT will focus on South China and Southwest China, while Southern SF Logistics REIT will focus on the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River [88][89]. - **It highly depends on SF Group tenants, and the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable**: As of September 30, 2024, the related - party rental area of Southern SF Logistics REIT accounted for 84.29% of the rented area, and the related - party contributed 88.45% of the monthly rent and management fee income. Although the high concentration of tenants has both advantages and disadvantages, the occupancy rate is expected to be generally stable [91]. - **The valuation has considered the risk of rent decline, and the current distribution rate is a good allocation period**: As of May 16, 2025, the market value of Southern SF Logistics REIT was 3.766 billion yuan, and the expected cash distribution rate in 2025 was 3.98%, ranking in the upper - middle level among the 9 listed warehousing logistics REITs. The current high - rent period before 2027 is a window of opportunity for investment [4].
顺丰深港双平台,优质仓储物流REITs的配置窗口期
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-22 04:48
Group 1: Market Overview - The logistics industry in China has shown significant improvement, with the logistics industry prosperity index at 51.1% in April 2025, indicating expansion[1] - The average effective rent in major city clusters has declined, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region down 3.7%, Yangtze River Delta down 6.1%, and the Pearl River Delta down 0.3%[2] - As of May 16, 2025, there are 9 listed logistics REITs in China, with 31 underlying assets, facing pressure on rental rates and occupancy[2] Group 2: REIT Performance - SF Hong Kong REIT, initiated by SF Holding, has been stable since its listing in May 2021, with a valuation drop to HKD 6.7 billion in 2024, down 8.9%[3] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT, listed in April 2025, focuses on high-quality assets in the South China and Southeast Asia regions, with a market value of CNY 3.766 billion and an expected cash distribution rate of 3.98% in 2025[4] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT's rental rates are currently above market averages, but there is a risk of downward adjustment upon lease renewals[4] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The high-standard warehouse sector in China is characterized by a "one strong, many strong" market structure, with Prologis leading in market share[2] - The logistics REITs are adopting a "price for volume" strategy to maintain occupancy amid supply shocks, leading to rental declines and rising vacancy rates[2] - The average vacancy rates in major city clusters are high, with the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region at 28.6% and the Yangtze River Delta at 25.4%[2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The logistics sector is expected to face continued pressure from rental declines and increased vacancy rates due to ongoing supply releases[2] - The Southern SF Logistics REIT is positioned to benefit from the current high rental period before potential adjustments in 2027[4] - Risks include unexpected policy changes regarding public REITs and operational risks associated with infrastructure projects[5]
吉宏股份:Q1电商业务回暖,深耕亚洲持续布局出海-20250522
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-22 04:25
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 was 5.529 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.41%, with a net profit of 182 million yuan, down 47.28%. However, in Q1 2025, revenue increased to 1.477 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 11.55%, and net profit rose to 59 million yuan, up 38.21% [2][3] - The cross-border e-commerce business generated 3.366 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, a decline of 20.93%, while the packaging business saw a slight increase of 0.14% to 2.099 billion yuan. The overall gross margin decreased from 46.66% to 43.93% [3] - The company is investing in AI technology to enhance its e-commerce capabilities, developing models such as ChatGiiKin-6B and GiiAI, which improve product selection and market responsiveness [4] - The company is expanding into the Middle East market and has initiated the process for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with plans to issue 67.91 million shares [5] - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted, with expected revenues of 6.265 billion yuan, 6.936 billion yuan, and 7.467 billion yuan, and net profits of 275 million yuan, 328 million yuan, and 386 million yuan respectively [6][8] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 5.529 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 17.4%. The net profit was 182 million yuan, down 47.3% [8][10] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.9%, with projections for 2025 at 45.6% and 2026 at 46.1% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 was 0.47 yuan, with forecasts of 0.71 yuan for 2025 and 0.85 yuan for 2026 [8][10]
捷成股份:Q1业绩稳定增长,探索AI+版权运营业务-20250522
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-22 00:30
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][6] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 2.866 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 47.04% to 238 million yuan. In Q1 2025, revenue grew by 5.13% to 711 million yuan, with a net profit increase of 11.80% to 131 million yuan [2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its leading position in the copyright market and actively promoting cultural exports, having been recognized as a key enterprise in cultural exports for five consecutive years [4] - The company is exploring new business models in AI and copyright operations, collaborating with Huawei and other firms to develop AI-driven content creation tools [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a total revenue of 2.866 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.4%. The net profit was 238 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 47.0%. The gross margin for 2024 was 18.8% [8][11] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 711 million yuan, a 5.13% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 131 million yuan, marking an 11.80% increase [2][11] R&D and Profitability - The company increased its R&D investment, particularly in the AIGC field, leading to a rise in the R&D expense ratio to 1.43% in 2024. The overall gross margin improved significantly to 30.13% in Q1 2025 from 8.65% in 2024 [3][11] - The gross margin for the film and television copyright business decreased by 10.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the audio-visual technology segment saw a gross margin increase of 48.70 percentage points [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a leading position in the domestic film and television copyright market, continuously expanding its content library and adopting a diversified approach to content procurement [4] - The company has established a self-operated team on overseas platforms and has significantly increased its subscriber base on YouTube, adding 19 million subscribers in the year [4] Future Outlook - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025-2027 to 3.210 billion yuan, 3.551 billion yuan, and 3.881 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 465 million yuan, 529 million yuan, and 584 million yuan [6][11] - The company is expected to maintain a reasonable valuation level due to its strong market position and ongoing exploration of new business models [6]
Finniss锂矿项目重启预计需要1.75亿至2亿澳元的预生产资金,预计单位运营成本将降至690-785澳元 吨
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-22 00:25
Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The Finniss lithium project requires pre-production funding of AUD 175 million to 200 million and is expected to reduce unit operating costs to AUD 690-785 per ton [1][6][11] - The resource update for the Finniss lithium project shows a 100% increase in the Grants mine's reserves, reaching 1.15 million tons with a Li2O grade of 1.29% [1][8] - The mining methodology has shifted from open-pit to underground, optimizing the mining plans for BP33 and Carlton mines, with BP33 expected to contribute 85% of the ore supply in the first ten years [2][10] Summary by Sections Project Restart and Research Findings - The Finniss project will transition to underground mining, with a new entrance planned near existing transport routes [2] - The BP33 deposit features a significant vertical pegmatite body, making it suitable for high-yield, low-cost mining methods [2] Processing and Cost Structure - The existing heavy medium separation plant will expand from 1 million tons per year to 1.2 million tons per year, with processing costs expected to decrease by 33% to AUD 40-46 per ton [3][6] - The average recovery rate is projected to improve to 78%, with a focus on enhancing concentrate quality and reducing processing costs [5][10] Capital Expenditure and Financing - Core Lithium is actively pursuing financing options to support the Finniss project restart, with a current cash balance of AUD 30 million sufficient for ongoing project activities [7] - The final investment decision (FID) will depend on board approval and securing attractive financing [7] Production and Inventory - Core Lithium holds approximately 5,000 tons of lithium concentrate and 75,000 tons of lithium powder, providing potential short-term options for market price improvements [8] - The total ore reserves for the Finniss project amount to 10.73 million tons with an average Li2O grade of 1.29% [8][10]
资产配置日报:内优,外患-20250521
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-21 15:22
证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报:内优,外患 | | | 复盘与思考: 5 月 21 日,海外波涛汹涌,国内风平浪静,多数股指维持小幅上涨趋势,债市则为短涨长跌。 复盘各类资产表现,股市,大盘板块一如既往地稳步上涨,上证指数、沪深 300、中证红利上涨 0.21%、 0.47%、0.76%;科技行情存在分化,国内科创 50 下跌 0.22%,港股恒生科技则上涨 0.51%;小微盘板块略微降 温,中证 2000、万得微盘股指下跌 0.80%、0.94%。债市,10 年、30 年国债活跃券收益率上行 0.8bp、1.3bp 至 1.67%、1.92%;10 年国债期货主力合约围绕前收价格震荡,30 年国债期货主力合约下跌 0.08%。 海外方面,穆迪下调美国主权信用评级持续发酵,"卖出美国"交易重新升温,美国市场经历"股债汇"三 杀;特朗普的减税法案即将通过,高昂的赤字预期推动美债进一步下挫;此外,日本国债投资者通过"罢工"行 为向其央行"缩减购债行为"发起挑战,超长日债收益率大幅上涨。英国方面,4 月通胀数据超预期增 ...
风语筑(603466):销售收现比提升,Q1业绩回暖
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-21 14:51
证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Title] 销售收现比提升,Q1 业绩回暖 [Table_Title2] 风语筑(603466) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级: | 买入 | 股票代码: | 603466 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级: | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价: | 13.28/6.49 | | 目标价格: | | 总市值(亿) | 60.85 | | 最新收盘价: | 10.28 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 60.85 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 594.79 | [Table_Summary] ►事件概述 根据风语筑发布的 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报,公司 2024 年全年实现营业收入 13.76 亿元,同比下降 41.44%,实现归母净利润为-1.35 亿元,拟每 10 股派发现金红利 2 元(含税)。公司 2025 年一季度实现营业收 入 3.82 亿元,同比增长 29.81%,归母净利润为 0.40 亿元,同比扭亏为盈。 ►盈利能力短期承压,销售收现比提升 2024 年,公司整体毛利率为 22.9 ...
Finniss锂矿项目重启预计需要1.75亿至2亿澳元的预生产资金,预计单位运营成本将降至690-785澳元/吨
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-21 14:50
[Table_Date] 2025 年 5 月 21 日 [Table_Title] Finniss 锂矿项目重启预计需要 1.75 亿至 2 亿澳元 的预生产资金,预计单位运营成本将降至 690-785 澳元/吨 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ► Finniss 锂矿项目资源量更新 Grants 矿的储量增加了 100%,达到 115 万吨,并转向地 下开采,以获取更多矿产资源并降低成本。 结合更新后的 BP33 矿石储量,Finniss 矿的总矿石储量 现已增加至 1073 万吨,Li2O 品位为 1.29%。 ►项目重启的研究成果 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 矿山研究计划将 Grants 矿的采矿方式从露天改为地下,并 优化了 BP33 和 Carlton 矿的地下开采计划,采矿将首先在 Grants 矿进行。BP33 地下开采的推进将与 BP33 矿石在第二 年进入矿山计划的同时进行。 将在 Grants 矿坑南端现有运输道路附近建造一个入口。地 下设计利用两个 25 米高采场的采矿区。作为矿山研究计划的 一部分,还计划从 Grant ...
名臣健康(002919):降本增效盘活资源,小程序游戏发展良好
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-21 14:15
证券研究报告|公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 05 月 21 日 [Table_Title] 降本增效盘活资源,小程序游戏发展良好 [Table_Title2] 名臣健康(002919) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级: | 增持 | 股票代码: | 002919 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级: | 增持 | 52 周最高价/最低价: | 20.65/10.17 | | 目标价格: | | 总市值(亿) | 42.48 | | 最新收盘价: | 15.83 | 自由流通市值(亿) | 42.14 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 264.39 | [Table_Summary] ►事件概述 根据名臣健康披露的年报及 2025 年一季报,公司 2024 年实现营收 13.80 亿元,同比下降 15.71%,实现归 母净利润 4671.96 万元,同比下降 33.60%,拟每 10 股派发现金红利 0.5 元(含税);2025 年第一季度实现营收 3.61 亿元,同比下降 0.10%,2025 年第一季度实现归母净利润 1271.3 ...
捷成股份(300182):Q1业绩稳定增长,探索AI+版权运营业务
HUAXI Securities· 2025-05-21 13:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][6] Core Views - The company reported stable revenue growth in Q1, with a revenue of 7.11 billion yuan, up 5.13% year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.31 billion yuan, up 11.80% year-on-year [2] - The company is actively exploring AI+ copyright operation business models, collaborating with Huawei and other firms to enhance its content creation capabilities [5] - The company maintains a leading position in the copyright market and is committed to promoting cultural exports [4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 28.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.36%, and a net profit of 2.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 47.04% [2] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 8.65%, down 63.76% from 2023, while Q1 2025 showed a significant recovery with a gross margin of 30.13% [3] Research and Development - The company increased its R&D investment, particularly in the AIGC field, leading to a rise in the R&D expense ratio to 1.43% in 2024 [3] Market Position and Strategy - The company has a strong inventory of copyrights and is expanding its domestic and international content offerings, including multiple films with box office potential [4] - The company has established a self-operated team on overseas platforms and has significantly increased its subscriber base on YouTube [4] Future Outlook - The revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 32.10 billion yuan, 35.51 billion yuan, and 38.81 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits adjusted to 4.65 billion yuan, 5.29 billion yuan, and 5.84 billion yuan [6][8]