机构行为带给债市的潜在阻力。即便 10 月 13 日以来债市连续修复，但 从第三方净申购数据来看，仅公募 FOF 和理财子是中长期纯债基金的主要申 购力量，银行自营依旧倾向于大额赎回债基，或反映四季度部分配置盘对锁 定收益率的诉求很强，这类行为可能继续成为抑制利率下行的阻力。 [Table_Title] 还是震荡 [Table_Summary] ►10 月以来，债市定价的主线主要有三条 首先在中美关系维度，近期关税 2.0 发展一波三折，美方态度在"强硬" 与"示弱"之间反复横跳。从美财长贝森特 15 日的发言来看，当前美方或更 倾向于将关税暂缓期延长，月末的中美高层谈判结果或依旧偏中性。 其次则是债基赎回费的问题，近期市场关于公募费率新规的讨论声重新 放大。从月中市场交易内容来看，部分投资者倾向于定价新规正式稿或较征 求意见稿出现一定程度的调整。不过尚未得到官方验证，因此市场也并没有 大面积地定价这一预期。 最后则是央行 10 月是否重启买债的问题，从当前的资金状态来看，如 果资金面持续维持宽松，央行可能暂不会通过买债操作注入额外流动性。此 外，从 9 月下旬以来的大行行为来看，9 月在二级市场净买入 7- ...

证券研究报告|固收点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 19 日 [Table_Title] 科创债 ETF 最新规模 2469 亿，增持新券 第二批科创债 ETF 上市以来，近三周规模均在 2500 亿元上下震荡，10 月 17 日最新规模为 2469 亿元。两 批 24 只科创债 ETF 中，百亿 ETF 已达到 15 只。 科创债周度发行升温，不过成交热度依然偏低。科创债净发行在 7 月第一周达到年内高点，随后震荡下滑， 10 月 13-17 日（以下简称"本周"）净发行 459 亿元，较节前一周增长 328 亿元，主要是央企集中发债，例如 国电电力、大唐集团、华润医药、中国电力建设发行规模均超 30 亿元，期限 3 年为主。成交方面，热度同样在 7 月达到高点，随后降温。本周热度相对偏低，不过仍高于科创债 ETF 上市前。科创债 ETF 上市首周（7 月14- 18 日），成交热度达到年内高点，科创债成交笔数、科创债 ETF 成分券成交笔数占信用债的 18%、14%，最近 三周在 10%、5%上下震荡，有所降温。 本周科创债 ETF 增持延续节前一周规律，依然主要是 25 年 9 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The secondary - market of REITs was weak this week, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index down 1.44% weekly, showing a four - week consecutive decline. However, the primary - market issuance was hot, with high subscription multiples for newly issued REITs. Attention should be paid to the investment opportunities of rental housing and projects with income distribution adjustment mechanisms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market 3.1.1 Price - Except for data centers, other seven types of REIT assets declined this week. Rental housing had the largest decline of 2.19%, and only 7 REITs rose while 68 fell. The significant correction of the rental housing sector increased its cost - effectiveness, with the current distribution rate rising to 3.23%. After the bond market stabilizes, especially the expansion - concept rental housing projects are worth attention [1][14]. - The industrial park sector fell 1.47% this week. Only 3 REITs had positive cumulative returns in the second half of 2025. Projects with income distribution adjustment mechanisms are recommended [2][20]. - In the consumer facilities sector, only the newly - listed Cade Commercial REIT rose slightly, while the rest declined. Some projects showed cost - effectiveness and their adjustment plans are worth following [2][24]. 3.1.2 Liquidity - The trading activity of REITs marginally recovered this week but remained low overall. The average daily trading volume, turnover, and turnover rate were 414 million yuan, 93 million shares, and 0.39% respectively, with环比 changes of - 6.92%, + 5.67%, and + 0.02pct [2][29]. - By sector, the top - ranked sectors in terms of average daily turnover rate were new - type facilities, rental housing, and municipal environmental protection. The turnover rate of rental housing increased the most, with a net inflow rate of 1.53%. The warehousing and logistics sector had a low turnover rate and negative net inflow rate [32]. 3.1.3 Valuation - In terms of China Bond valuation yield, warehousing and logistics, transportation facilities, and industrial parks ranked high. From the perspective of cash distribution rate, industrial parks, consumer facilities, and warehousing and logistics had relatively high distribution rates among equity - type projects. In a weak market, projects in economically developed regions with "performance guarantee clauses" should be preferred [40]. 3.2 Primary Market 3.2.1 Initial Offering - The primary - market issuance was hot. On October 13, the offline subscription multiple of China Overseas Commercial REIT reached 320.47 times, setting a new record in the whole market. On the same day, the offline and public subscription multiples of Shenyang International Software Park REIT were 83.3 and 247.5 times respectively [1]. - On October 17, E Fund Guangxi Beibu Gulf Expressway REIT was submitted to the Shanghai Stock Exchange, being the first project in Guangxi to be submitted to the exchange [2]. 3.2.2 Expansion - The expansion of China Resources Commercial REIT has been accepted, and the expansion of China Resources Youchao REIT has received feedback. The performance of Bosera Shekou Industrial Park REIT after the equal - amount replacement of external borrowings is also worthy of attention [2]. 3.2.3 Other Key News This Week - The expressway sector disclosed its September operating data. Nanjing Transportation Expressway REIT and Shenzhen Expressway REIT's revenue completion met the forecast values [19].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of information communication as a critical infrastructure for the new round of technological upgrades, focusing on three major infrastructure networks: AI computing power infrastructure, integrated space-ground communication networks, and high-speed data circulation infrastructure [1][34] - The report highlights the rapid development of satellite internet and low-altitude economy, with a focus on the integration of satellite communication networks and the establishment of low-altitude economic networks [3][19] - The data element construction is crucial for building high-speed interconnected data circulation infrastructure, with significant growth expected in the data industry [24][27] - AI empowerment is seen as a key driver for industrial upgrades, with applications in various sectors including advanced manufacturing and smart manufacturing [29][30] Summary by Sections 1. Investment in Computing Power Infrastructure - Significant capital expenditure growth in computing power infrastructure, with major telecom operators increasing their investments [12][14] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in AI chips, optical communication, and data center services [2][14][15] 2. Satellite and Low-Altitude Communication Infrastructure - The rapid deployment of satellite internet and the establishment of low-altitude economic networks are highlighted, with various companies benefiting from this trend [16][19][21] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in satellite communication and low-altitude network equipment [6][23] 3. Data Element Construction - The data industry is projected to grow significantly, with a focus on building a robust data infrastructure to support data circulation [24][25][26] - Key beneficiaries include telecom operators and companies providing data platforms and security solutions [27][28] 4. AI Empowerment for Industrial Upgrades - AI is driving the transformation of traditional manufacturing into smart manufacturing, with a focus on enhancing productivity and efficiency [29][30][31] - Key beneficiaries include companies involved in AI applications across various sectors [35][36]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that Xiaogoods City achieved significant growth in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 5.348 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 39.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders reaching 1.766 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 100.52% [1][28]. - The strong performance is attributed to the successful leasing of commercial spaces in the Global Digital Trade Center and the growth in fulfillment service profits [1][28]. - The Global Digital Trade Center officially opened on October 14, 2025, which is expected to continue benefiting the company as it ramps up operations [1][28]. - The report also notes that the cross-border payment business of Yipay surpassed 27 billion yuan, growing over 35% year-on-year, indicating robust growth potential [1][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The consumer services index outperformed the CSI 300 index by 1.00 percentage points, while the retail index outperformed by 2.14 percentage points during the specified period [8]. 2. Industry & Company Dynamics 2.1 Industry News - Sam's Club is expanding into lower-tier markets, with a new store opening in Zhangjiagang on October 20, 2025 [17]. - The 2025 China Urban Convenience Store Development Index was released, showing steady growth in convenience store development across major cities [18][19]. - The Global Digital Trade Center in Yiwu opened on October 14, 2025, marking a significant upgrade in the market's trading capabilities [21]. 2.2 Industry Financing Situation - Notable financing events include Xiuhou Technology completing a 50 million yuan Series A round and Haichuang Biotechnology securing several million yuan in Series A funding [22][23][25]. 2.3 Key Company Announcements - Xiaogoods City reported a total revenue of 13.061 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 23.07%, and a net profit of 3.457 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.45% [28][30]. 3. Macro & Industry Data 3.1 Retail Sales - In August, total retail sales reached 3.97 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.4% [33][38]. - Online retail sales of physical goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year from January to August [34]. 3.2 Gold and Jewelry - National gold consumption in Q2 2025 was 214.71 tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.06% year-on-year [50].

Local Government Bonds - The new transfer limit of 500 billion yuan for local government bonds has two main features: expanded funding usage and a total transfer amount that remains the same as last year at 500 billion yuan[1][12]. - In Q3 2025, local government bond issuance reached a peak of 30,430 billion yuan, but net financing decreased to 17,385 billion yuan due to a significant increase in maturing bonds[2][21]. - Despite the new 500 billion yuan transfer limit, the net financing pressure for local government bonds in Q4 is manageable, estimated at around 1.3 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 4,385 billion yuan from the previous quarter[2][25]. National Bonds - In Q3 2025, national bonds saw a record net issuance of 20,192 billion yuan, an increase of 1,766 billion yuan year-on-year, and 1,071 billion yuan from the previous quarter[3][32]. - The remaining net financing for national bonds in Q4 is projected at 12,600 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of about 1,712 billion yuan but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of approximately 7,592 billion yuan[3][38]. Policy Financial Bonds - The net issuance of policy financial bonds in Q3 2025 was 7,602 billion yuan, showing significant growth compared to previous years, particularly in August when it reached 3,924 billion yuan[4][43]. - For Q4, the net financing scale of policy financial bonds may exceed seasonal norms, potentially reaching 6,800 billion yuan, which is an increase of about 1,704 billion yuan compared to the average from 2020 to 2024[6][48].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate production and commercialization due to breakthroughs in AI technology and strong domestic demand for core components [1][14] - The electric vehicle charging infrastructure is projected to grow significantly, with a target of 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, which will support over 80 million electric vehicles [18][19] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a price recovery, with leading integrated component companies likely to benefit from improved profitability [30][31] Humanoid Robots - The launch of the ZhiYuan Robot's G2 model marks a significant step in the commercialization of humanoid robots, with strong domestic demand for core components driving market growth [1][14] - The industry is seeing increased participation from major tech companies, which is expected to enhance the overall market dynamics and opportunities for component suppliers [15][17] New Energy Vehicles - The "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan" aims to significantly enhance the electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with an expected annual increase of over 5 million new charging facilities [18][19] - The public DC charging pile market is anticipated to double within three years, driven by both new installations and the renovation of existing facilities [18][19] New Energy - The photovoltaic component prices are on the rise, indicating a potential upward cycle in the industry, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved pricing and profitability [30][31] - The market is witnessing a significant increase in demand for high-efficiency products, particularly in the context of BC battery technology [30][31] Power Equipment & AIDC - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment is expected to remain strong due to ongoing renewable energy projects, providing robust support for core suppliers in this segment [8] - The release of NVIDIA's 800VDC power supply architecture white paper highlights advancements in power electronics, which are likely to benefit companies actively engaged in AIDC technologies [9]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [6] Core Insights - The non-bank financial sector index decreased by 1.34%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.88 percentage points, ranking 9th among all primary industries [2][13] - The average daily trading volume of A-shares was 19,515 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.0% month-on-month but an increase of 10.2% year-on-year [17] - The IPO market remains active, with 81 companies listed in 2025, raising a total of 784.6 billion yuan [19] Summary by Sections 1. Non-Bank Financial Weekly Insights - The securities sector fell by 3.13%, while the insurance sector rose by 3.65% [2][13] - Notable gainers included China Life Insurance (+7.32%) and New China Life Insurance (+6.79%), while Sichuan Shuangma (-11.80%) and Hainan Huatie (-9.57%) were among the biggest losers [2][13] 2. Market Indicators - The average daily trading volume for the fourth quarter of 2025 is projected at 23,100 billion yuan, a 25.3% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 [17] - Margin trading balance reached 24,571.84 billion yuan, up 0.48% from the previous month and 56.80% from the average level in 2024 [19] 3. Industry News - Dongwu Securities reported a projected net profit of 27.48 billion to 30.23 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50%-65% [3][14] - New China Life Insurance expects a net profit of 299.86 billion to 341.22 billion yuan for the same period, with a year-on-year increase of 45%-65% [8][16] - China Pacific Insurance anticipates a net profit growth of 40%-60% for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by improved operational management and strategic focus [8][16]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The report emphasizes the expected increase in domestic demand driven by the 14th Five-Year Plan and renewed tariff conflicts, suggesting a focus on sectors with strong price-driving capabilities and industry self-discipline [6] - Cement prices have shown a slight decline, while float glass prices continue to rise, indicating mixed market conditions [2] - The report highlights the resilience of companies like Sanke Tree and the potential for growth in new business areas such as fire safety technology and specialty electronic fabrics [6][7] Summary by Sections Cement Market - The national average cement price is 347 RMB/ton, down 0.7% from the previous week, with price increases observed in Hunan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi [2][24] - The report notes that the average shipment rate for key cement enterprises is 45.2%, indicating a slight increase [24] Float Glass and Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of float glass is 1300.97 RMB/ton, up 0.87% from the previous week, while photovoltaic glass prices remain stable [2] - The report mentions that the price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is around 13 RMB/sqm, unchanged from the previous week [2] Real Estate Transactions - In the 42nd week, new home transaction area in 30 major cities was 211.75 million sqm, down 20% year-on-year but up 107.52% month-on-month [3][19] - The report indicates that second-hand home transactions in 15 monitored cities also improved month-on-month, with a 14% year-on-year increase in cumulative transaction area [3][19] Recommended Companies - Companies recommended include Huaxin Cement and Conch Cement, benefiting from cost and scale advantages [6] - The report also highlights the strong performance of Sanke Tree, which achieved a revenue of 9.39 billion RMB, up 2.7% year-on-year, and a net profit increase of 81.2% [6][7] - Fire safety leader Qingniao Fire is recommended due to its upcoming commercialization of fire robots and compliance with new national standards [6][7] - The report suggests investment in China Jushi and China National Materials Technology, which are expected to benefit from high demand for specialty electronic fabrics [6][7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The leisure off-road vehicle sector has shown strong performance in Q3, with companies like Taotao and Longxin exceeding market expectations. Taotao's growth is primarily driven by the rapid increase in golf cart sales, and the company has established a strategic partnership with the top electric golf cart dealer in the U.S. [1][12] - Longxin General is expected to maintain high growth rates, with a projected net profit of 15.2 to 16.2 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 60% to 80% [3][14] - Spring Wind Power reported a net profit margin of 8.8% in Q3, a slight decline due to a 5% drop in gross margin, primarily affected by U.S. tariffs on all-terrain vehicles. However, the negative impact of tariffs is expected to diminish with the implementation of the USMCA agreement [15] Summary by Sections Section 1: Weekly Special Report on Leisure Off-Road Vehicle Sector - Taotao's Q3 net profit is estimated to be between 2.38 and 2.78 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 100% to 133.61%. The company anticipates a continued increase in sales from its second brand, TEKO [2][13] - The large-displacement motorcycle segment has seen significant growth, with production and sales of over 84,300 units in August, marking a year-on-year increase of 18.3% and 23.6% [14] Section 2: Key Company Announcements - EGO Europe has reached an agreement to fully acquire Stierman De Leeuw, enhancing its presence in the European market [16] Section 3: Data Tracking - Raw material prices have shown slight fluctuations, with copper prices decreasing by 1.9% and aluminum prices by 0.4% as of October 17, 2025 [19][20] - Shipping rates have also declined, with the CCFI composite index down by 4.11% compared to the previous week [21][22] - Real estate data indicates a decline in sales area and construction area for the first eight months of 2025, with year-on-year decreases of 4.7% and 17% respectively [25][26]