证券研究报告|港股公司点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] Q4 流水承压，关注新店型和新产品发展 [Table_Title2] 李宁(2331.HK) | [Table_DataInfo] 评级： | 买入 | 股票代码： | 2331 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上次评级： | 买入 | 52 周最高价/最低价(港元)： | 20.28/14.52 | | 目标价格(港元)： | | 总市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | 最新收盘价(港元)： | 19.55 | 自由流通市值(亿港元) | 505.33 | | | | 自由流通股数(百万) | 2,584.81 | [Table_Summary] 事件概述 李宁发布最新运营状况，25Q4 李宁（不包括李宁 YOUNG）流水同比实现低单位数下降，其中线下/电商分 别为中单位数下降/持平，零售/批发分别为低单位数下降/中单位数下降。 大股东持续增持，李宁/李麒麟先生持股比例由年初的 10.7%/10.6%提升至 14.8%/14.4%，回购价格在 14.96-1 ...

[Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 15 日 [Table_Title] 保持慢牛上行的趋势不变 --简评沪深北交易所调整融资保证金比例 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 事件：1 月 14 日，经中国证监会批准，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入 证券时的融资保证金最低比例从 80%提高至 100%。此次调整仅限于新开融资合约，调整实施前已存续的 融资合约及其展期仍按照调整前的相关规定执行。 一、政策出台背景：近期 A 股融资交易热度快速攀升，市场成交极为活跃，需防范短期交易过热风险。 今年初以来，A 股市场加速上涨，场外资金入市意愿显著回升，1 月 14 日沪深京三市日成交额创下接近 4 万亿元的历史天量；在热点主题的带动下，A 股融资交易热度显著上行。截至 1 月 14 日，融资余额达 2.68 万亿元续创历史新高，融资成交额占比 11.3%，与 2025 年 8 月水平接近；此外，近期部分个股发布 公告，提示公司股价短期快速上涨脱离基本面，积累较大交易风险。 二、融资保证金比例调整属于监管层"逆周期调节"措施，此前有过两次调整。1）201 ...

Group 1: Government Bond Issuance in 2025 - In Q1 2025, the net issuance of government bonds reached 14,680 billion yuan, corresponding to an issuance progress of 22%, marking a historical peak for the same period[1] - The total net financing of government bonds for the year was 65,698 billion yuan, an increase of 20,855 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The net financing in Q2 and Q3 was 19,121 billion yuan and 20,192 billion yuan respectively, both setting historical highs for those quarters[1] Group 2: Local Government Bond Issuance - Local government bonds also saw a front-loaded issuance, with a total net financing of 72,757 billion yuan in 2025, up 4,804 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The issuance pattern showed peaks in Q1 (36%), followed by Q2 and Q3 (24% each), and a drop in Q4 (17%)[1] - In historically weaker months like April and July, local bonds maintained significant net financing of 5,281 billion yuan and 8,124 billion yuan respectively[1] Group 3: Policy Financial Bonds - The issuance of policy financial bonds was relatively stable, with a net issuance of 21,766 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 5,678 billion yuan year-on-year[1] - The issuance pace in August was notably high, likely due to the preparation for new policy financial tools[2] - The net financing scale in August was significantly above historical levels, indicating a proactive approach to funding[2] Group 4: Projections for 2026 - The issuance of government bonds in 2026 is expected to maintain a front-loaded trend, with a focus on Q1 and Q2 due to economic conditions[3] - The net financing for government bonds in Q1 2026 is projected to be between 13,400 and 13,600 billion yuan[3] - Local government bond issuance in Q1 2026 is anticipated to follow a "V" shape, with significant financing in January and March, and a dip in February[3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The company has signed an exclusive licensing agreement with AbbVie for its PD-1/VEGF bispecific antibody drug RC148, receiving an upfront payment of $650 million and potential milestone payments up to $4.95 billion, along with double-digit royalties on net sales outside Greater China [1][2] - The collaboration with AbbVie is expected to enhance the company's international clinical development and market expansion, leveraging AbbVie's existing oncology pipeline [2] - Initial clinical data for RC148 shows promising results, with an objective response rate (ORR) of 61.9% for monotherapy and 66.7% for combination therapy, indicating strong potential for further clinical advancement [3] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 2.75 billion, 3.38 billion, and 4.41 billion CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 60.95%, 22.97%, and 30.40% [7] - The projected net profit for 2026 is expected to be -315.8 million CNY, with a turnaround to a profit of 383.89 million CNY by 2027 [7] - The gross margin is anticipated to remain high, with estimates of 83.65% in 2025 and 82.27% in 2026 [8]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 14 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：回归理性 [Table_Title2] [Table_Summary] 1 月 14日， 股市经历显著的"倒 V型"反转行情，继昨日的调整行情过后，今日早盘机构与主力资金追高情 绪较强，上证指数午间收盘前上涨 1.20%至 4189 点，午间监管发文调整融资保证金比例，通过限制杠杆水平抑制 股市投机，午后市场自发矫正定价，各大股指普遍迎来回落。债市则继续"佛系定价"，长端品种收益率多随股 市风险摇摆窄幅震荡。 权益市场在上涨后回落。万得全 A上涨 0.31%，全天成交额 3.99 万亿元，较昨日（1 月 13 日）放量 2881 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 0.56%，恒生科技上涨 0.66%。南向资金净流入 28.65 亿港元，其中腾讯控股、 阿里健康、阿里巴巴分别净流入 20.09 亿港元、14.58 亿港元和 11.34 亿港元，中国移动则净流出 9.13亿港元。 市场情绪有望回归理性。1 月 14 日中午，沪深北交易所发布通知调整融资保证金比例，将投资者融资买入证 券时的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the scale of wealth management may grow steadily, but the proportion of credit bond allocation is likely to decline. The behavior of funds will be the core indicator of the credit bond market, and the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may boost the demand for credit bonds with specific maturities. The growth rate of credit bond ETFs may slow down [1][2][4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2026 Wealth Management Scale May Grow Steadily, Credit Bond Allocation Proportion Is Hard to Rise - **2026 wealth management scale growth may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan**: From 2024 - 2025, the scale of bank wealth management grew steadily, with annual increments exceeding 3 trillion yuan. The core driver was asset re - allocation during the downward cycle of deposit rates. It is estimated that the growth of wealth management scale in 2026 may be in the range of 2.7 - 3.4 trillion yuan [2][13][24] - **The proportion of credit bond allocation in wealth management shows a downward trend**: In 2025, due to the rectification of net - value smoothing methods, the proportion of bond allocation and credit bond allocation in wealth management decreased. In 2026, in the context of full net - value management and a low - spread environment, the proportion of credit bond allocation may be difficult to increase [26] - **Wealth management bond allocation shows seasonal characteristics and focuses on coupon cost - effectiveness**: In 2025, the willingness of wealth management to increase credit bond allocation decreased, mainly concentrating on bonds within 3 years. The bond allocation rhythm of wealth management is affected by scale changes and shows seasonal characteristics [30] - **The net purchase of inter - bank certificates of deposit by other asset management products exceeded that of credit bonds**: In 2025, the proportion of net purchases of credit bonds by other asset management products decreased significantly, while they increased the allocation of inter - bank certificates of deposit, which reflects the wealth management's large - scale increase in inter - bank certificates of deposit through entrusted asset management products for liquidity management [35][36] 3.2 In 2026, Fund Behavior Is the Core Indicator of the Credit Bond Market - **In 2026, the growth rate of bond fund scale may be under pressure**: The new regulations on fund sales fees in December 2025 may weaken the attractiveness of short - term bond funds, and if the pattern of a strong stock market and a weak bond market continues in 2026, it may suppress the growth of bond fund scale [4][43] - **The proportion of funds allocating credit bonds increased, and the duration operation is flexible**: In 2025, the willingness of funds to increase credit bond allocation increased, mainly due to the large expansion of credit bond ETFs and the relative advantage of credit bond coupon strategies in a volatile market. Funds mainly net - bought credit bonds within 5 years in 2025, with flexible duration operations [50][53] - **The concentrated opening of amortized bond funds may drive the demand for credit bond allocation with specific maturities**: In 2026, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan. If some products turn to a credit - style, it may boost the demand for credit bonds with corresponding maturities, especially medium - to high - grade 5 - year and 3 - year varieties [6][63] - **The growth rate of credit bond ETF scale may slow down**: In 2025, credit bond ETFs achieved leap - forward development, but in 2026, it may be difficult to reproduce the large - scale new issuance, and the scale growth may mainly rely on existing products to attract incremental funds. The scale change of credit bond ETFs is also greatly affected by interest rate trends [6][67][68]

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 12 日 [Table_Title] 资产配置日报：又见天量成交 | | | 1 月 12 日，权益市场放量上涨。万得全 A上涨 1.72%，全天成交额 3.64 万亿元，较上周五（1 月 9 日）放 量 4922 亿元。港股方面，恒生指数上涨 1.44%，恒生科技上涨 3.10%。南向资金净流入 73.06 亿港元，其中快 手、腾讯控股分别净流入 22.45 亿港元和 20.12 亿港元，而中国移动净流出 10.30 亿港元。 成交额创历史新高，市场情绪积极。A 股成交额以 3.64 万亿元创历史新高，突破了 924 行情创下的前高 3.48 万亿元。值得注意的是，隐含波动率大幅上涨。截至 1月 12 日，沪 300ETF IV 指数处于 924 行情以来的 80%分 位数，反映投机情绪迅速升温，驱动行情走强的同时，短期波动的概率放大。本轮隐含波动率的走势与 25 年 8 月 相似，在当时的上涨行情中，隐含波动率的分位数迅速上升至 80%之上后回落，沪深 300 下跌约 3%。 题材方面，AI应用和商业航天为今日主线。AI应用的上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a retail revenue growth of approximately 10% year-on-year for its main brand and children's clothing in Q4 2025, with e-commerce platform sales also showing high double-digit growth [2][3] - The company maintains a brand strategy focused on technology and quality, launching new products across various categories, including running, basketball, and outdoor gear [4] - The company has established strategic partnerships to enhance brand visibility and technological integration, including collaborations with the Asian Olympic Council and other institutions [5][6] - The expansion of the company's retail network includes the opening of 126 super stores in mainland China and the first overseas store in Cambodia, indicating a commitment to both domestic and international growth [7] Financial Summary - The company forecasts revenues of 11.62 billion, 13.35 billion, and 15.32 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 1.39 billion, 1.63 billion, and 1.87 billion yuan for the same years [9][11] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.67, 0.79, and 0.91 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 7.68, 6.57, and 5.72 [9][11]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Views - The sentiment in the pork market has significantly improved, with a notable reduction in losses for pig farming. The average price of live pigs is currently 12.55 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week. The number of breeding sows has decreased by 1.1% month-on-month and 2.1% year-on-year, indicating a steady adjustment in pig production capacity [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated a nationwide inspection of winter crop seeds to ensure safety for the upcoming spring and summer planting seasons. This includes a focus on key crops such as corn, rice, soybeans, cotton, and vegetables. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is expected to accelerate, enhancing self-sufficiency rates for critical varieties [1][11] Summary by Sections Planting Industry Chain - The Ministry of Agriculture is conducting inspections to ensure seed quality and compliance, which is crucial for agricultural production safety. The emphasis on genetically modified technology is expected to revolutionize yield improvements, with companies like Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development likely to benefit [1][11] Pig Farming - The average price of live pigs is 12.55 CNY/kg, with a slight increase in slaughter volume by 17.4% year-on-year. The market sentiment has improved significantly, with a reduction in losses for self-bred and purchased pig farming, indicating a potential for recovery in the sector. Recommended stocks include companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][12] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2353.51 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.21 USD/bushel, up 2.11% [26][27] - Wheat: The domestic average price is 2513.62 CNY/ton, down 0.09% week-on-week. The international price is 5.82 USD/bushel, down 0.13% [29][31] - Soybeans: The domestic average price is 4048.42 CNY/ton, up 0.63% week-on-week. The international price is 405.95 USD/ton, up 0.74% [39][43] - Cotton: The average price in Xinjiang is 15530.00 CNY/ton, up 0.84% week-on-week [45][49] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.64 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.76%. The prices for chicken feed and egg-laying hen feed remain stable [52][54]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first week of 2026 (January 5 - 9), the China Securities REITs Total Return Index closed at 1028.93 points, rising 1.89% weekly, with the market volume increasing and prices rising. The total market capitalization of 78 listed REITs reached 223.3 billion yuan, a 2.23% increase from the previous period, and the tradable market capitalization was 123 billion yuan [1][12]. - In the secondary market, various assets generally rose, and trading activity significantly increased. Except for the rental housing sector, the other sectors had a growth rate of 1.4 - 4.4%. The leading sectors in terms of growth were new - type facilities (+4.41%), consumer facilities (+3.15%), and industrial parks (+3.14%) [2][20]. - In the primary market, on January 9, 2026, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange officially accepted the application for the China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT [6][49]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Secondary Market: General Rise of Various Assets and Significant Increase in Trading Activity - **Overall Market Performance**: The China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose 1.89% weekly, and the average daily trading volume and turnover from Monday to Friday increased by 75.45% and 69.73% respectively compared to the previous period [1][12]. - **Sector - by - Sector Performance** - **Data Center (IDC) Sector**: Runze Technology Data Center and万国 Data Center rose 5.29% and 2.80% respectively. Runze Technology's average daily turnover rate increased by 0.38pct to 1%. The dynamic distribution rates of two IDC REITs dropped to 3.63% and 3.32% respectively, and attention could be paid to subsequent asset fluctuations [2][23]. - **Consumer Infrastructure Sector**: All individual bonds in this sector rose. With high occupancy rates and slightly rising rental prices, and approaching traditional consumer peak seasons like the Spring Festival, the fundamentals of consumer REITs are expected to perform well. However, it should be noted that 41.32% of the shares of E Fund Huawai Market REIT will be unlocked on January 24, 2026 [3][25]. - **Industrial Park Sector**: The sector rose 3.14% this week, with all individual bonds rising. Although some parks faced issues such as tenant exits or reduced rental areas, they stabilized occupancy rates through price - for - volume strategies. The average distribution rate of industrial parks is 4.60%, significantly higher than other rental - type REITs and the reference value of 3.30%. Attention could be paid to parks with stable fundamentals, income distribution adjustment mechanisms, and high distribution rates [3][28]. - **Rental Housing Sector**: The sector had mixed performance this week, with 5 rising and 3 falling. China Resources Youchao's expansion shares are about to be listed, and its current individual bond distribution rate of 3.35% is still among the top in the sector and can be continuously monitored [4][34]. - **Warehousing and Logistics Sector**: The sector rose 2.23% this week. There were significant differences in the performance of sub - markets. Some projects faced supply shocks, which might lead to a decline in rental income and dividend - paying ability [4][37]. 3.2 Primary Market: Shenzhen Stock Exchange Accepts China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT - On January 9, 2026, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange officially accepted the application for the China Aviation Beijing Changbao Rental Housing REIT. The project plans to hold assets in Yilan Xinchen, Guorui Xiyuan, and Future Rongshang Jiayuan in Changping District, Beijing. As of September 30, 2025, the occupancy rates of these projects were 96.24%, 96.20%, and 58.86% respectively, with an estimated total value of 847 million yuan [6][49][51]. - As of January 9, 2026, there was 1 project issued but not yet listed, 11 projects with feedback, and 4 projects accepted by the exchange [7][52].