Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, copper production decreased by 36.4% quarter-on-quarter to 71,226 tons, and zinc production increased by 26.1% to 52,700 tons [1][3] - The Kamoa-Kakula project is expected to start mining in the high-grade area on the west side in mid-November, with a production guidance of 370,000 to 420,000 tons of copper concentrate for the year [1][2] - The Kipushi concentrator achieved a record zinc production of 52,700 tons in Q3 2025, benefiting from the completion of a bottleneck elimination plan and upgrades to the processing technology [3][6] Production and Operational Summary Copper Production - In Q3 2025, the Kamoa-Kakula project processed 3.46 million tons of ore, producing 71,226 tons of copper, with a year-to-date total of 316,393 tons [1] - The average copper grade for the third phase concentrator was 2.44%, with a recovery rate of 84.2% [2][13] - The mining team plans to increase the ore grade to between 3.5% and 4.5% as they advance into the central area of the Kamoa-Kakula project [2] Zinc Production - The Kipushi concentrator processed 168,862 tons of ore in Q3 2025, with a zinc recovery rate of 89.36% [3][15] - The production increase was attributed to the successful completion of the bottleneck elimination project, which raised the annual processing capacity from 800,000 tons to 960,000 tons [3][6] Project Developments Kamoa-Kakula - The second phase drainage project is progressing as planned, with over 20% completion expected by the end of November 2025 [7] - A direct copper smelting plant is set to begin preheating in early November 2025, with a capacity to produce up to 700,000 tons of high-concentration sulfuric acid annually [8][10] Kipushi - The installation of a 6 MW backup generator is underway to address ongoing power instability, which will enhance operational reliability [6] - The Kipushi project team has completed the capacity expansion plan ahead of schedule and under budget, maintaining a strong safety record throughout the process [6]

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more in the upcoming six months [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company processed 221,581 tonnes of ore, a 32% increase quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to the resumption of operations after temporary shutdowns in Q2 2025 [1][7]. - Tin production reached 5,190 tonnes in Q3 2025, marking a 26% increase from the previous quarter and a 6% increase year-on-year, aligning closely with the quarterly production target of 5,000 tonnes [1][7]. - The average tin price achieved in Q3 2025 was $33,877 per tonne, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 7% increase year-on-year [2][7]. Production and Financial Performance - The unit sustaining cost for Q3 2025 was $15,900 per tonne, down 3% from the previous quarter, as production rates returned to normal following prior disruptions [2][7]. - The expected EBITDA for Q3 2025 is $96 million, which is 28% higher than the actual value of $75 million in the previous quarter, driven by increased tin production and sales [3][7]. - As of September 30, 2025, the company had a cash balance of $57 million, down from $110 million on June 30, 2025, due to tax payments and dividend distributions [3]. Production Guidance - The company anticipates producing approximately 5,000 tonnes of tin in Q4 2025, raising the total tin production forecast for 2025 to between 18,000 and 18,500 tonnes, up from the previous estimate of 17,500 tonnes [4].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic copper-based materials enterprise accelerating its high-end transformation, with significant growth in carbon fiber and high-end equipment sectors benefiting from military and aerospace demand [2][4] - The company achieved revenue of 288.03 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.05%, and a net profit of 2.51 billion yuan, up 48.83% year-on-year [2][4] Summary by Sections Domestic Copper-Based Materials Leader - The company produces precision copper strips, copper conductor materials, copper alloy wires, precision special steel, carbon fiber composite materials, and high-end thermal equipment, with an annual production capacity of over 300,000 tons of precision copper strips, ranking first in China [2][11] - The company has undergone multiple acquisitions to enhance its high-end copper material capabilities and enter the military new materials sector [11][22] Tian Niao High-Tech as Core Supplier - Tian Niao High-Tech, a 90% subsidiary, is a key supplier of carbon fiber preforms for aerospace applications, with expected surges in demand due to military exercises and the expansion of the civil aviation market [27][31] - The company is responsible for supplying carbon fiber preforms for all domestic aircraft brake units and nearly all series of solid rocket engine throat liners [27][31] Ding Li Technology's Expansion - Ding Li Technology, holding 66.72% of the company, is a leading enterprise in special thermal equipment, planning to spin off and list separately while expanding into 3D printing parts [56][59] - The company focuses on advanced thermal processing equipment and has developed a production line for metal-based 3D printing materials [59][64] Xin Hai Gao Dao's Growth in Robotics - Xin Hai Gao Dao, an 82.06% subsidiary, leads in the copper conductor segment and is entering the robotics field, creating new growth points [3][4] - The company has successfully mass-produced ultra-fine copper conductors for robotics and electric vehicles, establishing strategic partnerships with well-known enterprises [3][4]

Market Overview - In September, the market experienced fluctuations but maintained a bullish trend, with the CSI All A Shares Index rising by 2.80% and the Convertible Bond Index increasing by 1.97% for the month[7][10]. - The market faced a significant adjustment from September 2-4, primarily due to weakened expectations for market stability and a breakdown in the tech sector's consensus, particularly in AI computing and semiconductors[7][10]. Investment Themes - The underlying logic supporting the bull market remains intact, driven by stability, technology, and anti-involution narratives, with a new factor emerging: the potential for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts[2][22]. - High elasticity themes with medium to long-term narratives, such as solid-state batteries, energy storage, and robotics, are favored by the market, while themes closely tied to domestic demand are less attractive[2][35][43]. Convertible Bonds - Despite a divergence in sentiment between on-market and off-market funds, convertible bonds still present upward opportunities, supported by ongoing stock performance and a persistent demand for yield[3][51]. - The valuation of convertible bonds has shown volatility, with a significant portion of trading days in September experiencing declines, indicating a challenging environment for investors[3][51]. Strategy Recommendations - The current market strategy should focus on thematic investments, particularly in high-growth technology sectors and those benefiting from potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, such as non-ferrous metals[3][49]. - For convertible bonds, maintaining a controlled position while actively participating in the rotation of high-equity varieties is recommended, especially in sectors like technology and those benefiting from anti-involution and rate cut narratives[3][66].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights a significant surge in global stock markets during the National Day holiday, particularly in technology stocks driven by the AI investment boom, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising by 4.16% [1] - Gold and Bitcoin reached new highs due to uncertainties from the U.S. government shutdown and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The report emphasizes the strong performance of semiconductor sectors in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea during the same period [1] Group 2: AI and Technology Developments - Major overseas tech companies are accelerating investments and collaborations in AI infrastructure, such as NVIDIA partnering with Fujitsu and OpenAI collaborating with Samsung and SK Hynix [2] - OpenAI launched a new video generation model, Sora 2, and an iPhone app that quickly topped the U.S. App Store's free app chart [2] - Domestic AI advancements include breakthroughs in large models and chip compatibility, with companies like DeepSeek and Zhipu releasing new models [2] Group 3: High-end Manufacturing and New Energy - China has made significant strides in high-end manufacturing and new energy technologies, including the construction of the BEST nuclear fusion device and the testing of the world's first "dual-tower one-machine" solar thermal energy storage power station [3] - The report notes the successful launch of China's first 10,000-ton pure electric intelligent sea vessel and advancements in solid-state lithium battery technology [3] Group 4: Domestic Economic Trends - The report indicates a weak recovery in the domestic economy, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.8%, reflecting a slight increase but remaining below the growth line [3] - Consumer behavior during the holiday showed strong travel intentions, but box office revenues fell short of expectations, and real estate sales were relatively flat [3] Group 5: Overseas Policy Events - The U.S. government shutdown has heightened risk aversion, leading to increased gold and Bitcoin prices, with market expectations for a 96% chance of a Fed rate cut in October [4] - The election of a new leader in Japan, who is expected to follow an expansionary fiscal policy, has driven a significant rise in the Japanese stock market [4] - Political instability in France has led to increased volatility in its financial markets, with the CAC40 index dropping by 1.36% [4] Group 6: Investment Strategy - The report suggests a continuation of a "slow bull" market, with a focus on technology investments and sectors benefiting from the AI revolution [5] - It highlights the importance of sectors such as AI computing, innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and high-end equipment manufacturing for future investments [5] - The report also advises monitoring non-tech sectors that show positive trends, such as non-ferrous metals [5]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Viewpoints - The overseas AI-related heat continues, with OpenAI partnering with AMD to deploy up to 6GW of AMD Instinct GPUs over the next few years, with the first batch of 1GW expected to be operational by 2026 [2][7] - The capital market shows strong enthusiasm for AI-related transactions, as evidenced by AMD's average increase of 30% [3][8] - Domestic AI applications are expected to accelerate breakthroughs, with a focus on the domestic computing power industry chain [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas AI Developments - OpenAI has launched the Sora 2 model, which features intelligent synchronization of audio and visuals, and has announced a significant increase in active users and API usage [2][8] - Samsung and SK Group have entered into a partnership with OpenAI to supply DRAM and HBM wafers for AI data centers [3][9] 2. Investment Recommendations - Focus on the domestic computing power industry chain, with notable growth from Alibaba Cloud and Huawei's super node cluster products [3][9] - Key beneficiaries include companies like Cambricon, Moore Threads, and SMIC, as well as those involved in advanced process manufacturing and chip architecture upgrades [3][9][11] - Recommendations extend to companies in the switch, optical device, PCB, and other related sectors, such as ZTE, Unisoc, and Longfly Fiber Optics [3][11] 3. Communication Sector Insights - Emphasis on two main areas: Beidou and satellite applications, and AI computing power [12] - Recommended companies include major telecom operators and equipment manufacturers, as well as third-party computing power leasing firms [12][14]

证券研究报告|宏观专题报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 08 日 [Table_Title] 金属股带动，喜迎"开门红" [Table_Title2] ——双节假期国内外重要信息分析 [Table_Summary] 投资要点: ► 复盘：大类资产表现 美股：美股市场在科技板块强劲表现推动下三大指数集体上涨。市场受 对美联储降息预期及企业盈利乐观情绪支撑，政府停摆的影响被淡化。 日股：市场预期日本新首相将重拾安倍经济政策（宽货币+宽财政），日 经股指显著上涨，日元大幅贬值，推升美元指数。 港股：国庆期间，港股整体缩量震荡，恒指、恒科收涨，指数在 10 月 2 日创四年新高。南向资金持续流入科技、创新药、有色板块，推动港股市 场整体估值修复。 商品：黄金方面，受美国政府停摆引发避险需求升温，进一步推升金价， 纽约金价突破 4000 美元/盎司大关；铜价方面，供应端的多重冲击，加剧 了全球铜供应紧张局势，推动铜价持续走高。 ► 假期出行消费平稳增长，美国政府再陷停摆困境 1）"双节"假期，出行人数和商贸零售数据小幅增长，热门城市及景点 人气较旺；观影人次及票房不及预期；商品房销售平淡。 2）美 ...

[Table_Title] 国庆假期不能错过的事 [Table_Summary] ►海外三大事件影响市场 二是出游消费"量胜于价"，电影票房同比降 20%。 2025 年国庆假期旅游市场延续复苏格局，全国大部分省市客 流热度普遍高于去年同期，其中中西部省份增长动能尤为强 劲。但从消费端看，人均消费水平的复苏幅度弱于客流增 长，体现出"价"相对滞后于"量"。与旅游市场的暖意不 同，2025 年国庆档电影票房表现较弱，核心原因或在于内容 供给不足。电影市场整体呈现"量价齐降"。从票仓结构来 证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 10 月 08 日 评级及分析师信息 国庆期间，海外大事不断，三个事件深刻影响市场走 向。一是美国政府关门，参议院两党未就临时拨款法案达成 共识，联邦政府从 10月 1日开始关门。本应于 10月 3日（周 五）发布的非农数据也因关门而推迟。 二是日本自民党总裁选举落地，10 月 4 日高市早苗击败 小泉进次郎，可能很快接任首相。高市早苗政策继承自安 倍，或倾向于推动积极财政、货币宽松。因而日本加息预期 推迟。 三是法国总理辞职，10 月 6日担任总理仅 27 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 9 月 30 日， 统计局发布 9 月 PMI。制造业 PMI 49.8%，预期 49.7%，前值 49.4%。非制造业 PMI 50.0%，前值 50.3%。关注以下几个方面： 第一，制造业反弹仍然是生产分项拉动。9 月制造业生产环比回升 1.1 个百分点至 51.9%，新订单上升 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%。对比往年同期，2016-2024 年间（剔除 2020/2022）生产和新订单的平均变动幅度分别为 +0.24、+0.41 个百分点。9 月作为秋季旺季，多会呈现出季节性规律之外的供需两旺。而今年 9 月生产相对更 强，新订单偏弱。两者分别拉动制造业 PMI 约 0.28、0.06 个百分点，是制造业 PMI反弹的主要拉动因素。 第二，价格连涨两个月之后回撤。制造业价格回落，出厂价回调 0.9 个百分点至 48.2%（7-8 月合计涨 2.9%），仍然处于收缩区间。这指向 9 月 PPI 环比可能仍为负。而原材料购进价格指数回调幅较小，仅调 0.1 个 百分点至 53.2%（7-8 月合计涨 4.9%），仍然处于扩张区间。非制造业价格方面，建筑业和服务业价格分别下滑 1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, predicting that the stock price will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 15% or more within the next six months [37]. Core Insights - The company, Youli Intelligent, is recognized as a "little giant" specializing in the photovoltaic bracket industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of core components [1][2]. - The domestic photovoltaic power station installation continues to expand, with the photovoltaic bracket market expected to exceed 25 billion yuan [2]. - The company's international layout has led to a steady increase in market share, becoming a major supplier for NEXTracker in non-US markets [2][30]. - The company has established a comprehensive competitive advantage through parallel design, research, and manufacturing systems, enhancing product precision and reliability [3][31]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The global photovoltaic market is rapidly expanding, with an expected increase in new installations to approximately 390 GW in 2023, a year-on-year growth of 69.56% [8][9]. - China's photovoltaic market has become the largest globally, with a projected market size of 210 billion yuan in 2023 and 253 billion yuan in 2024 [10][22]. - The global photovoltaic bracket market is anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the increasing demand for tracking brackets, which are expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 27.4% from 2023 to 2027 [17][21]. Company Overview - Youli Intelligent has achieved revenues of 433 million yuan, 658 million yuan, and 729 million yuan for the years 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 12.78%, 51.96%, and 10.84% [1][27]. - The company has a strong international presence, with overseas revenue accounting for 88.19%, 73.06%, and 78.72% from 2022 to 2024 [2][30]. - The company has developed a range of core components for photovoltaic brackets, including the Torque Tube (TTU), Bearing Assembly (BHA), and Installation Structure Components (URA) [24][25]. Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to grow from 42 million yuan in 2022 to 90 million yuan in 2024, with growth rates of 185.55%, 85.27%, and 15.19% respectively [1][27]. - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenues of 481 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29.47% [1][27]. Competitive Advantages - The company has established a robust research and development framework, with increasing R&D investment from 5.07 million yuan in 2022 to 12.13 million yuan in 2024, representing 1.66% of revenue [32]. - The company holds 11 invention patents and 50 utility model patents, demonstrating its commitment to innovation and quality [32].