证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 01 月 04 日 [Table_Title] 元旦出行稳健增长，离岛免税持续亮眼 投资建议 展望 26 年，我们建议关注高景气成长赛道以及政策、科技加 持下服务业景气拐点赛道，具体包括：（1）服务消费迎来政 策及行业新需求共振，有望驱动行业拐点，包括免税、银发 旅游、育儿消费等。受益标的包括中国中免、华住酒店、锦 江酒店、首旅酒店、三峡旅游、君亭酒店、孩子王、海底 捞、百胜中国、长白山等。（2）新消费拥有需求长逻辑，景 气度有望维持，当前行业龙头估值处于相对低位，26 年仍然 拥有足够弹性，包括潮玩、茶饮、时尚黄金珠宝、保健品 等。受益标的包括泡泡玛特、名创优品、潮宏基、老铺黄 金、若羽臣、古茗、蜜雪集团等。（3）零售业态创新+出海打 开新成长空间，受益标的包括小商品城、赛维时代等。（4） AI+应用 26 年有望迎来百花齐放，从主题到商业化变现加 速，受益标的包括焦点科技、豆神教育、青木科技、科锐国 际、米奥会展等。 风险提示 宏观经济下行，居民收入及消费意愿恢复不及预期，行业竞 争加剧。 [Table_Title2] 社服零售行业周报 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 4 日 [Table_Title] 2026 资金面， "低波"或是常态 [Table_Title2] 2026 年投资展望系列之十一 [Table_Summary] ► 2025 年，资金面"波"平浪静 2025 年，适度宽松的主基调下，资金面整体延续平稳，节奏上 呈现"先紧后松"的特征。整体可以分为两个阶段，阶段一：长端利率 快速下行，央行重提货币总闸门，通过暂停国债买卖操作，维持谨慎 投放，引导资金面整体维持紧平衡状态。阶段二：利率回归合理区 间，央行政策态度转为"适度宽松"。资金利率回归低位运行状态，绝 对水平逐步向政策利率（OMO）附近收敛，利率波幅也逐步收窄。 ► 资金低波的背后，货币框架之变革 资金波动整体收敛的背后，一方面是利率传导体系的转变。央行 通过调整利率走廊，引导短期利率运行区间逐步收窄。同时，将 OMO 利率确立为核心政策利率，强化其锚定作用。至此，我国利率 体系传导，逐渐从以MLF 为中枢的传导机制"MLF→LPR/DR→市场利 率"，转向"7 天逆回购利率→DR→市场利率"的新路径。 另一方面，是资金投放 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Views - Geopolitical conflicts are intensifying, leading to long-term uncertainty that supports gold prices. Recent military actions by the US against Venezuela have heightened risk aversion, impacting the precious metals market [1][50] - The macroeconomic environment remains accommodative with expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is likely to benefit gold and silver prices in the long run [3][22] - The supply-demand dynamics for silver are strong, with significant inflows into ETFs and tight global inventories, suggesting a bullish outlook for silver prices [6][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - COMEX gold fell 4.82% to $4,341.90 per ounce, while silver dropped 9.30% to $72.27 per ounce. SHFE gold decreased 3.81% to ¥977.56 per gram, and silver fell 6.80% to ¥17,074.00 per kilogram [1][34] - The gold-silver ratio increased by 4.93% to 60.08, indicating a shift in market dynamics [1][34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings decreased by 193,093.29 ounces, while SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 1,722,502.60 ounces, reflecting changing investor sentiment [1][34] Base Metals - In the LME market, copper rose 2.70% to $12,460.50 per ton, aluminum increased 2.18% to $3,021.00 per ton, and zinc went up 1.31% to $3,127.00 per ton. SHFE copper fell 0.49% to ¥98,240.00 per ton, while aluminum and zinc saw increases [7][12] - The macroeconomic sentiment is positive, with expectations of increased fiscal spending in China to stimulate consumption and stabilize employment, which supports copper prices [8][12] - Supply-side risks are evident, with major mining companies reducing copper production forecasts due to operational challenges, which may tighten supply further [9][12] Small Metals - Magnesium prices remain stable at ¥17,210 per ton, with demand primarily driven by essential purchases amid a seasonal slowdown [19] - Molybdenum prices have increased due to strong demand from the steel sector, while vanadium prices are under pressure despite some positive signals from the storage sector [20][24]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [3] Core Views - The report anticipates a strong fluctuation in lithium prices in the short term, supported by a backdrop of price reassessment across key metals [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel and coal production in 2026, which, combined with Vale's suspension of nickel mining, is expected to tighten supply and support nickel prices [1] - The cobalt market is expected to remain structurally tight, with prices likely to rise further due to ongoing supply constraints [2][5] - The antimony market is showing signs of recovery in exports, which may lead to domestic prices converging with higher international prices [6][18] - The lithium market is experiencing a continuous destocking trend, with prices expected to remain strong due to stable demand from the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [8][19] - The rare earth market is tightening due to new export restrictions from Vietnam, which may further support prices [20] - The tin market faces uncertainties in supply due to ongoing issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Update - Indonesia's government plans to cut nickel production by approximately 34% in 2026, reducing the target to 250 million tons from 379 million tons in 2025 [1] - Vale's Indonesian operations have halted nickel mining, contributing to supply tightness [1] - The cobalt market is expected to face structural supply constraints, with prices projected to rise due to a decrease in available export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [2][5] Antimony Industry Update - Domestic antimony prices are expected to rise as supply remains tight, particularly with winter mining activities slowing down [6][18] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls that may further tighten supply and support higher domestic prices [6][18] Lithium Industry Update - The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has increased to 118,600 CNY/ton, reflecting a 16.76% rise [8] - Continuous destocking in the lithium market is expected to support prices, with demand from the electric vehicle sector remaining robust [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Update - New export restrictions from Vietnam are expected to tighten global rare earth supply, supporting prices [20] - China continues to dominate the rare earth supply chain, with significant production capacity compared to other countries [20] Tin Industry Update - The tin market is facing uncertainties due to supply issues in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia's export controls [21] - Recent increases in tin imports from Myanmar may help alleviate some supply concerns, but overall uncertainty remains [21]

Market Review - The South Korean Composite Index, Hong Kong's Hang Seng Tech Index, and Taiwan Weighted Index led global gains, while US stock indices declined during the week of December 29, 2025, to January 2, 2026. In the A-share market, cyclical and growth sectors performed well, with oil, military, and media industries leading, while utilities faced the largest declines [1] - On January 2, the first trading day after New Year's, the Hong Kong stock market experienced a "good start," with the Hang Seng Tech Index surging 4% in a single day, particularly in semiconductor, AI computing, and internet giants, indicating a recovery in market risk appetite [1] Market Outlook - The year 2026 is anticipated to be a "big year" with multiple positive factors converging, maintaining a solid bull market foundation. The spring rally has started early due to several reasons: 1. Macro policy cycle indicates that 2026, as the first year of the 14th Five-Year Plan, will see multiple departments intensifying the rollout of supporting industrial policies and investment plans, creating a favorable liquidity environment through coordinated fiscal and monetary policies [2] 2. In December, institutional funds, represented by stock ETFs, showed significant inflows, with insurance funds expected to contribute to the market's upward trend due to favorable exchange rate movements [2] 3. With the narrowing decline in PPI, corporate earnings are expected to enter a mild recovery phase in 2026, making the bet on earnings inflection points a crucial support for the market [2] Key Focus Areas - The new chairperson of the Federal Reserve is a focal point this month, with the December meeting minutes indicating a majority support for further rate cuts, although there are significant policy path divergences among officials. The probability of a rate cut in January is currently low at 17% [2] - The manufacturing PMI for December 2025 returned to the expansion zone at 50.1%, with production and new orders indices at 51.7% and 50.8%, respectively, indicating improvements in both supply and demand [3] - The non-manufacturing PMI also rose to 50.2%, with the construction sector PMI at 52.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policy-driven financial tools [3] Policy Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission has issued a list of early construction projects and a central budget investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan for 2026 [4] - The "two new" policies for 2026 will continue and be optimized, with the first batch of 62.5 billion yuan in subsidy funds being released early [4] - New local government bond limits will also be issued ahead of schedule, alongside measures in the real estate sector to reduce transaction costs for residents [4] Institutional Investment Trends - Since December, there has been a significant net inflow of institutional funds, particularly into A500-related ETFs, indicating a proactive approach to the spring rally [5] - The beginning of the year typically sees aggressive credit issuance from banks, which is expected to improve the liquidity outlook for the real economy and enterprises [5] - Recommended sectors for investment include emerging growth themes supported by industrial policies, such as AI computing, robotics, and domestic substitution, as well as sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" and price increases, such as chemicals and new energy [5]

A-share Market Valuation - The current PE (TTM) for the A-share market is 16.59, with a median of 13.54 and a maximum of 30.60[12] - The PE (TTM) for the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.35, while the CSI 300 is at 13.48[9] - The PE (TTM) for the ChiNext Index is significantly higher at 40.77, with a maximum of 137.86[12] Hong Kong Market Valuation - The Hang Seng Index has a current PE (TTM) of 11.77, with a median of 10.32 and a maximum of 22.67[60] - The Hang Seng Technology Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 22.87, with a maximum of 65.18[62] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index has a current PE (TTM) of 10.44, with a maximum of 29.92[62] US Market Valuation - The S&P 500 Index has a current PE (TTM) of 29.18, with a median of 21.16 and a maximum of 41.99[84] - The NASDAQ Index shows a current PE (TTM) of 41.35, with a maximum of 75.53[92] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a current PE (TTM) of 30.64, with a maximum of 34.70[96] Sector Valuation Insights - Non-bank financials, food and beverage, and non-ferrous metals sectors have lower PE ratios, indicating historical undervaluation[22] - The technology sector, including computing and electronics, shows higher PE ratios, suggesting potential overvaluation[22] - The pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have lower PB ratios, indicating potential investment opportunities[22]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the core investment themes of "AI+" and commercial aerospace, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics and opportunities for growth in these sectors [1][4]. - The A-share market has experienced a technology bull market, with the Sci-Tech Innovation Board leading the gains, particularly in "hard technology" assets [11][12]. - Revenue and gross profit for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board have shown signs of recovery, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 8.13% in the first three quarters of 2025 [15][21]. Group 2 - The report highlights the ongoing AI revolution, with a focus on the evolution of large language models (LLMs) from scale to efficiency and reasoning capabilities, marking the onset of an application era [41][43]. - Gemini 3 Pro, a new large language model from Google, has demonstrated significant breakthroughs in multi-modal interaction and industry benchmark tests, showcasing its advanced capabilities [47][49]. - The domestic large model landscape is rapidly evolving, with Chinese models achieving competitive performance against international counterparts, emphasizing high performance and low cost as foundational for AI applications [49][51]. Group 3 - The report notes that AI has permeated various aspects of daily life, with significant user engagement in AI-native applications, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [55][57]. - AI agents are becoming crucial tools for enterprise process restructuring, with a notable increase in the adoption rate among companies, particularly in technology and finance sectors [65][67]. - The investment landscape in China's equity market has shown growth, with a 19.8% increase in investment cases and a 9.0% rise in investment amounts in 2025 compared to the previous year, particularly in the AI sector [40][41].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The pig farming industry is at the left - side layout stage, with the start of capacity reduction. There is pressure on pig prices in H1 2026, but a rebound is expected in H2. Recommended companies include Lihua Co., Ltd., Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd., and Shuanghui Development Co., Ltd. [27] - In the planting industry, the prices of grains such as corn, wheat, and soybeans are showing signs of recovery, and the industry's prosperity is expected to improve. [29] Summary by Directory 01 Pig Farming: Left - side Layout, Awaiting Reversal - **Weak Season in Peak Season, Lowest Pig Price in Q4 2025 in the Past 10 Years, Capacity Adjustment as the Main Theme**: In 2025, the national pig price decreased quarter - by - quarter. Q4 pig price was the lowest in the past 10 years. Due to factors like post - Spring Festival low demand and sufficient supply, and an increase in the number of breeding sows from September to November 2024, which led to more pig slaughter in Q3 2025. In May 2025, relevant departments guided pig enterprises, and in the second half of the year, capacity reduction was significant, with the number of breeding sows falling below 40 million in October. [10] - **Overall Loss in Purchased Piglet Farming, Promoting Capacity Reduction of Retailers**: With the continuous decline of pig prices, self - breeding and self - raising turned from profit to loss in September, and the loss expanded. Purchased piglet farming was even worse, with an average loss of over 100 yuan per head in 2025. Retailers faced longer - term and deeper losses. [14] - **Policy Guidance, Passive Capacity Reduction, and Future High - quality Development**: Since 2025, relevant departments have held multiple meetings to guide the high - quality development of the pig industry. The central government's No. 1 document proposed to monitor and regulate pig production capacity. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs put forward specific plans. In December, the Ministry of Commerce imposed anti - dumping duties on imported pork from the EU, which is expected to relieve domestic supply pressure. [16] - **Pressure on Pig Prices in H1 2026, Possible Rebound in H2**: In H1 2026, pig prices are under pressure because the number of new - born piglets 6 months ago is increasing, indicating sufficient supply. In H2 2026, pig prices are expected to rebound due to reduced supply corresponding to the decrease in the number of breeding sows in October 2025 and seasonal demand. [22] - **Focus on Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement, Significant Cost Differentiation**: Pig enterprises have been focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvement in 2024 and 2025, with significant cost reduction and obvious cost differentiation. Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd. has the lowest cost, followed by other companies with different cost ranges. [25] - **Left - side Layout, Awaiting Reversal**: Since October 2025, the average national pig price has been below 12 yuan per kilogram, and it is expected that there will be no widespread profitability in the industry in H1 2026, with continued capacity reduction. In H2 2026, pig prices may rebound. Recommended companies include Lihua Co., Ltd., Muyuan Foods Co., Ltd., and Shuanghui Development Co., Ltd. [27] 02 Planting: Grain Prices Gradually Recover, Prosperity Expected to Improve - **Corn: High Yield and Falling Planting Costs, Lowest Price in the Past 5 Years**: In 2023, the consumption of corn was mainly for feed and industry, accounting for over 90%. In 2025, the corn price was the lowest in the past 5 years, but it rebounded during the year. The low price was due to high yield and falling planting costs. Future price improvement depends on the recovery of feed demand. [34] - **Wheat: Increased Purchases by the State Grain Reserves and Rising Corn Prices, Rising Wheat Price Center**: In 2023, the consumption of wheat was mainly for food and feed, accounting for over 80%. In 2025, the wheat price center increased. The reasons for the price increase include increased purchases by the state grain reserves, post - festival replenishment demand of flour mills, rising corn prices, and farmers' reluctance to sell. [38] - **Soybeans: Affected by Import Quotes and Shipping Freight, Slight Price Increase**: In 2023, the consumption of soybeans was mainly for crushing, accounting for 84.69%. In 2025, the soybean price increased seasonally. The price decline in Q1 was due to the arrival of low - priced imported soybeans and soybean auctions. The price increase in Q3 was due to rising Brazilian soybean quotes and shipping freight. [42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [2] Core Insights - The report indicates that the premium income for life insurance and health insurance has shown a marginal improvement, with a year-on-year increase of 9.1% in original premium income for the first 11 months of 2025, totaling 414.72 billion yuan [1] - In November, the decline in premium income for personal insurance narrowed compared to October, with a monthly income of 154.8 billion yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.6% [1] - The report highlights a positive trend in property insurance, with total premium income for the first 11 months of 2025 reaching 161.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, and a monthly income of 124.8 billion yuan in November, up 2.3% year-on-year [2] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, reflecting a robust growth of 13.2% compared to the end of 2024, driven by premium income growth and appreciation of investment assets [3] - The report suggests that the demand for savings insurance remains strong due to higher preset interest rates compared to bank deposits, which may attract some deposits into the insurance sector [4] - The supply side is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms in the insurance marketing system and the removal of certain restrictions, leading to a concentration of market share among leading insurance companies [4] Summary by Sections Personal Insurance - Original premium income for personal insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 414.72 billion yuan, with life insurance, health insurance, and accident insurance contributing 338.74 billion, 72.52 billion, and 3.46 billion yuan respectively [1] - The monthly premium income for November was 154.8 billion yuan, with life insurance at 112.6 billion yuan, health insurance at 40.2 billion yuan, and accident insurance at 2 billion yuan [1] Property Insurance - Original premium income for property insurance companies from January to November 2025 was 161.57 billion yuan, with motor insurance and non-motor insurance at 84.32 billion and 77.25 billion yuan respectively [2] - The monthly premium income for November was 124.8 billion yuan, with motor insurance at 82 billion yuan and non-motor insurance at 42.8 billion yuan [2] Asset Growth - Total assets of the insurance industry reached 4.06463 trillion yuan by the end of November 2025, with life insurance companies holding 3.57526 trillion yuan and property insurance companies holding 314.81 billion yuan [3] - Net assets totaled 367.97 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [3]

Group 1: PMI Overview - Manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.1% in December, up 0.9 percentage points from 49.2%, marking the first expansion in eight months and exceeding Bloomberg's expectation of 49.2%[1] - Non-manufacturing PMI also increased to 50.2%, up from 49.5%[1] - The composite PMI for December rose by 1 percentage point to 50.7%, the highest in the second half of the year[5] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - Key drivers for the manufacturing PMI were production and new orders, with production increasing by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7% and new orders rising by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%[1] - New export orders improved by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, nearing the highest level of the year[2] - Manufacturing purchasing volume increased by 1.6 percentage points to 51.1%, while raw material purchase prices decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 53.1%[2] Group 3: Construction and Services Sector - The construction sector saw a significant rebound, with the business activity index rising by 3.2 percentage points to 52.8%, the highest in the second half of the year[3] - Service sector PMI increased slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining below the expansion threshold[3] - New orders in the service sector rose by 1.8 percentage points to 47.3%, indicating some improvement despite overall weakness in consumer-related services[3] Group 4: Price Trends and Economic Outlook - Price trends showed divergence, with manufacturing output prices rebounding by 0.7 percentage points to 48.9%, while service and construction prices fell[4] - The overall economic recovery in December is attributed to increased fiscal spending and positive expectations for the upcoming year, particularly with the 2026 Spring Festival being later in February[4] - The necessity for aggressive monetary policy easing appears to be decreasing, with potential delays in interest rate cuts anticipated[6]