[Table_Title] 防守反击 [Table_Title2] 类权益月报 [Table_Summary] ►行情回顾：充满惊喜的 7 月 7 月，利好纷至沓来，行情持续走强。7 月 1 日，中央财经委 会议召开，反内卷成为继科技、消费后又一政策主线。7 月 19 日，雅江水电站宣布开工，助推强势行情进一步突破。在基建 行情发生波动后，科技接力上涨。时至 7 月底，市场自发修正 非理性政策预期，行情显著回落。 ►权益行情或将定价不确定性 在 7 月的上涨过程中，市场由"暂无明确利好"，逐渐过渡到 "充分交易利好及预期利好"。同时，资金在 FOMO（怕踏空） 心理下，暂不定价外部不确定性、基本面数据等压力因素。 然而，这些压力因素已不可忽视。一方面，中美"蜜月期" 或渐近尾声。第三轮中美贸易谈判结果不及预期，同时中美 贸易关系的不稳定性已逐渐显性化，体现在美国对中国购买 俄油持反对态度、中国调查英伟达H20芯片安全问题等。另一 方面，7 月 PMI 回落，基本面因素可能决定资金是否追涨。 ►固收+火热，130 元或不是转债价格的归宿 固收+方面，随着转债市场价格逼近 130 元，诸多绝对收益机 构在转债潜在 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, global gold demand increased by 102 tons to 1079 tons, with gold ETF demand rising by 178 tons to 171 tons [1][2] - Total gold supply in Q2 2025 grew by 3% year-on-year, reaching 1249 tons, primarily due to record-high mining output of 909 tons [1][15] - Investment demand for gold surged by 78% year-on-year to 477.2 tons, driven largely by significant inflows into gold ETFs [4][38] Supply Summary - Q2 2025 gold supply reached 1249 tons, a 3% increase year-on-year, with mining output at a record 909 tons [1][15] - Gold recycling in Q2 2025 rose by 4% to 347 tons, maintaining a steady supply despite fluctuations in gold prices [23][25] Demand Summary - Total gold demand in Q2 2025 was 1079 tons, a 10% increase year-on-year but a 17% decrease quarter-on-quarter [2][29] - Jewelry demand fell by 14% year-on-year to 341 tons, marking the lowest level since Q3 2020 [3][31] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins grew by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, indicating strong investor interest [7][42] - Central bank demand for gold remained robust at 166.5 tons, despite a 21% year-on-year decline [8][50] Jewelry Demand Insights - Q2 2025 saw a 20% year-on-year decline in gold jewelry demand in China, totaling 69 tons, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [3][33] - In India, gold jewelry consumption decreased by 17% to 89 tons, with the first half of 2025 showing the second-lowest demand since 2000 [3][34] Investment Demand Insights - Gold ETF holdings increased by 170 tons in Q2 2025, contrasting with a decrease of 7 tons in the same period last year [4][41] - North American gold ETFs saw a significant increase of 73 tons, while Asian ETFs also reported strong demand [4][41] Central Bank Demand Insights - Central banks collectively purchased 166.5 tons of gold in Q2 2025, a decrease from previous quarters but still above historical averages [8][50] - Poland emerged as the largest buyer, adding 19 tons to its reserves, despite a reduction from earlier purchases [52][51] Industrial Demand Insights - Industrial gold demand slightly decreased by 2% year-on-year to 79 tons, influenced by ongoing trade uncertainties and rising gold prices [9][56] - Demand for gold in electronics fell by 2% to 66 tons, with challenges stemming from tariffs and export restrictions [9][57]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, the bond market may reach its peak moment, becoming a decisive factor in the performance competition in the second half of the year. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August may be greater, while the situation in the last ten - days needs further observation. With five major positive factors supporting, there is a 10 - 12bp downward space for the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, and the potential returns are considerable when considering the duration [2][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. July Bond Market: "Unjust Disaster" - The bond market in July went against market expectations. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds started at 1.64% and 1.85% respectively and rose to 1.75% and 2.00% by the end of the month, with an increase of 11bp and 15bp. The main reasons for the divergence between expectations and reality were the over - fermented risk appetite in the stock and commodity markets and the unexpected tightening of the capital market around the tax period [1][10]. - The bond market in July can be divided into three stages: a calm first ten - days, a turbulent middle ten - days, and a late ten - days when negative factors were released. In the late ten - days, affected by factors such as the start of a large - scale infrastructure project and the "anti - involution" trading, the bond market entered an irrational decline [11][12]. - In terms of various bond types, short - term bonds performed better than long - term bonds, and credit bonds outperformed interest - rate bonds. The yields of various bonds generally increased, and the 30 - year treasury bond had a single - month decline of 2.30%, making July the second - worst month for the bond market this year [15][16][18]. 2. Five Reasons to Be Bullish on the Bond Market in August 2.1. Do Not Underestimate the Change in the US Attitude on Tariff Issues - The result of the Sino - US tariff negotiation may become the main variable for asset pricing again. The US may use tariffs to seek benefits in investment or exports, which could damage global trade relations and create a negative atmosphere for Sino - US negotiations [2][21]. - In the new round of tariff negotiations, the US generally obtained favorable trade terms. This may make the US more aggressive in future Sino - US negotiations. If Sino - US relations deteriorate, it could suppress global and domestic risk preferences, which is beneficial to the bond market [22][24]. 2.2. The Fundamental Situation Weakens Marginally, but the Expectation of Policy Stimulus Retreats - The July PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, lower than the expected 49.7%. The new orders and production in the manufacturing industry declined, indicating weak demand. The large - scale net purchase of bills by major banks in July and the decline of bill interest rates to near zero may also suggest weak loan demand [25][26]. - The Politburo meeting at the end of July gave an optimistic assessment of the first - half economy, which may make it difficult to introduce short - term "stable growth" policies. If the economic data in the third quarter fluctuates, there may be a time lag before stimulus policies are introduced, which could lead to a decline in risk preferences and be beneficial to the bond market [29]. 2.3. The Suppression of Risk Appetite Caused by "Anti - Involution" Trading Weakens - From July 1st to 25th, affected by "anti - involution" trading, the futures prices of key commodities such as coking coal, coke, and polysilicon increased significantly, and the extreme risk preferences in the market were rapidly boosted, which was the main reason for the sharp adjustment of the bond market [30]. - To suppress speculation, commodity exchanges issued relevant policies at the end of July. The first stage of the general rise in the commodity market may have passed, and the over - risen commodities have entered the price correction stage. The market risk preference has returned to rationality, reducing the resistance to the rise of the bond market [31][32]. 2.4. In Terms of Liquidity, August May Be the Low Point of the Annual Capital Interest Rate - Generally, the capital interest rate in August does not increase significantly compared with July. The natural capital gap in August is not large. Although the net issuance of government bonds may increase, it is offset by the lower tax payment. The MLF maturity scale in August is 3000 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure of repurchase agreements has eased, which is conducive to maintaining a neutral and loose capital interest rate [34][35]. - Historically, the R001 and R007 in August can generally remain stable, and the increase in the capital interest rate usually occurs before the end of the month. After August, the capital interest rate may fluctuate due to factors such as the quarter - end pressure in September and uncertainties in the fourth quarter. Therefore, August may be the low point of the annual capital interest rate [36][37]. 2.5. Pay Attention to the Return of Redeemed Funds and the New Premiums of Insurance "Cost - Reduction" - In July, the continuous redemption of public bond funds by institutions amplified the adjustment of the bond market. However, the redemption pressure may only be within the "institution - fund" circle and has not spread outward. The liability of wealth management products and banks remained stable. For example, wealth management products continued to increase their holdings of certificates of deposit in July [46][49][50]. - If the redeemed funds of funds remain in the inter - bank market, they may flow back to the trading market as the bond market recovers in August, which could push the interest rate down. In addition, due to the adjustment of the insurance product interest rate, the yields of ultra - long - term local bonds and ultra - long - term treasury bonds have risen to around or above the "new cost line" of life insurance, and the ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds may experience an excessive decline in August [50][55][57]. 3. The Bond Market in August May Reach Its Peak Moment: Grasping the Rhythm Is Key - With five major positive factors, the bond market in August may reach its peak moment. The opportunities in the first and middle ten - days of August are greater, while the situation in the late ten - days needs further observation. From the end of July to the beginning of August, although the bond market entered the recovery stage, institutions were still cautious about the duration [5][59]. - It is recommended to extend the duration as much as possible with active individual bonds within the acceptable risk range. The bond interest tax - payment new rule announced by the Ministry of Finance on August 1st may affect the pricing of treasury bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds in three stages, but it is not a negative factor for the bond market [59][63].

Market Performance - Domestic commodity market stabilized after a significant correction, with some products like coking coal and iron ore showing slight increases of 2.3% and 0.8% respectively[1] - Industrial silicon experienced a notable decline of 3.5%, while other products like glass and polysilicon saw reduced declines, generally under 2%[1] Price Trends - Following the "倒 V" market trend since July 18, the price resilience among various commodities has become evident, with some products like live pigs and industrial silicon completely offsetting previous gains[2] - Coking coal, polysilicon, and coking coal showed relatively smaller pullbacks of 26%, 44%, and 52% respectively, indicating stronger market consensus[2] Futures Structure - The long-term contracts for most commodities outperformed short-term contracts, reflecting market expectations for long-term improvements, with coking coal's long-term contract priced 3.46% higher than the short-term[2] - Cumulative excess gains since July for coking coal, glass, and soda ash relative to short-term contracts reached 9.43%, 6.38%, and 6.15% respectively[2] Inventory Insights - Steel inventory increased by 1.60% this week, while coking coal inventory decreased by 2.07%, indicating a significant reduction despite high absolute levels[3] - Float glass inventory fell by 3.9%, suggesting a healthy production and sales situation, while caustic soda inventory rose by 3.1%, indicating weaker fundamentals[3] Market Outlook - The commodity market has entered a new phase of differentiation among products, with short-term pressures but strong expectations for long-term improvements[3] - Continued monitoring of supply and demand dynamics across industries is essential for future assessments[3]

Market Overview - The equity market experienced a volume contraction rebound on August 4, with trading volume decreasing from 2 trillion to 1.5 trillion yuan. The morning session saw strong performance from bank stocks, while small-cap stocks gained strength in the afternoon as market risk appetite improved [1] - Major indices rebounded, with the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 rising by 0.66% and 0.39% respectively. The STAR Market and ChiNext indices saw increases of 1.22% and 0.50%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 1.55% [1] - The bond market showed a divergence between short and long ends, with 10-year and 30-year government bonds rising by 1.30 basis points and 1.55 basis points to 1.71% and 1.92% respectively [1] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank maintained a net injection of liquidity at the beginning of the month, with a large reverse repo of 544.8 billion yuan announced to alleviate month-end cash withdrawal pressure, resulting in a net injection of 49 billion yuan [2] - The overnight interbank rates opened at 1.43%-1.47% and later fell to 1.40%-1.43%, stabilizing around 1.35% in recent days. The 7-day funding rate decreased by 1 basis point to 1.48% [2] - Short-term interest rates declined, with 1-year and 3-year government bond yields falling by 0.37 and 0.59 basis points to 1.37% and 1.44% respectively [2] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market exhibited a "see-saw" dynamic influenced by stock market movements, with yields initially declining before reversing as equity markets rebounded. The 10-year government bond yield rose to 1.71% after a brief dip to 1.68% [3] - Market sentiment weakened as expectations for new government bonds emerged, leading to significant selling by funds and brokerages. However, as rumors were dispelled, bond yields gradually decreased [3] Future Outlook - The bond market may see downward opportunities in August due to expected stable liquidity conditions and a "wide monetary" policy stance from the central bank. Historically, August experiences limited fluctuations in funding rates [4] - The equity market is anticipated to continue its rebound, with the total trading volume at 1.52 trillion yuan, down 101.7 billion yuan from the previous week. This pattern resembles previous market behavior following significant corrections [4] - Market risk appetite shows signs of decline, with a decrease in financing balances and net outflows from equity ETFs, indicating potential concerns regarding U.S.-China relations and slower-than-expected economic recovery [5] Sector Performance - The banking sector performed well in the morning, with the SW Bank Index rising by 1.45%, driven by risk-averse sentiment. In the afternoon, small-cap stocks surged, with the CSI 2000 index increasing by 1.56% to a historical high [5] - Notable sectors included defense and robotics, with respective index increases of 3.06% and 3.42%, likely influenced by upcoming events such as the September 3 military parade and the World Robotics Conference [5] - Precious metals also saw gains, with the SW Precious Metals Index rising by 4.80%, possibly in response to global risk appetite shifts following non-farm payroll data releases [6]

Investment Rating - The report provides a recommendation for the industry [5]. Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the production of finished nickel and cobalt by the company reached 3,431 tons and 389 tons respectively, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and 14% [2]. - The net direct cash cost of nickel decreased by 8% year-on-year to $5.27 per pound [2]. - The Moa JV's mixed sulfide production decreased by 21% year-on-year to 3,238 tons due to planned acid plant shutdowns and challenging economic conditions in Cuba [2][3]. - The company anticipates a recovery plan to increase production in the second half of the year [2]. Production and Operational Performance - The Q2 2025 nickel production was impacted by a reduction in raw material supply, with third-party supplies unable to compensate for the loss [2]. - The company expects annual maintenance shutdowns to occur in September 2025 [2]. - Fertilizer production increased by 8% year-on-year to 65,207 tons due to improved equipment availability [3]. Financial Performance - The revenue from the metal business in Q2 2025 was CAD 124.7 million, down from CAD 150.6 million in Q2 2024 [8]. - Nickel revenue decreased to CAD 68.6 million, while cobalt revenue increased to CAD 15.2 million due to higher average realized prices [8]. - The overall company revenue for Q2 2025 was CAD 136 million, a 17% decrease year-on-year [12]. Expansion Plans and Strategic Development - The Moa joint venture expansion project is ongoing, with completion expected in mid-August 2025, aiming to enhance production capacity [13]. - The company is advancing its nickel-cobalt processing project, which has received funding support from Alberta's Emissions Reduction Alberta [14].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The RKEF project produced 30,463 tons of nickel pig iron (NPI) in Q2 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to adjustments made to the ONI furnace [1][2] - The unit cash cost for NPI increased by 4% year-on-year to $10,348 per ton, driven by maintenance costs and rising electricity expenses [2] - The sales revenue for NPI in Q2 2025 was $346 million, reflecting a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] RKEF Project Summary - NPI production in Q2 2025 was 30,463 tons, with a contract price of $11,449 per ton, showing a 1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2] - The adjusted EBITDA for NPI was $33.7 million, down 24% from the previous quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA per ton of $1,107, a decrease of 20% [2][12] HPAL Project Summary - The Huayue nickel-cobalt project produced 20,750 tons of nickel and 1,877 tons of cobalt in Q2 2025, exceeding the rated capacity by 38% [3] - The unit EBITDA for HNC was $4,819 per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, supported by rising MHP prices [5] Mining Operations Summary - The Hengjaya mine produced 5.92 million wet tons of nickel ore in Q2 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the Hengjaya mine was $41.4 million, a 33% increase from the previous quarter, driven by rising nickel ore prices [7] Financial Overview - Nickel Industries received $34.4 million in shareholder loan repayments in Q2 2025 [10] - The company also received $8.1 million in dividends from the Oracle Nickel project and $8 million from the Hengjaya mine [10][11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core of research is to find causal relationships to predict the future, and in capital market research, it focuses on finding factors affecting asset prices and predicting price trends [2][14]. - The key to capital market research is to simplify complexity and capture market participants' expectations, and historical research is crucial for quick mastery [3][4]. - Total research is more complex due to the constantly changing macro - environment, and one needs to keep learning and updating analysis frameworks [5]. - Research and investment are both related and different. Research is about discovering rules, while investment is about breaking them, and they have different stances [8][25]. - To do well in capital market research, one needs to have passion and dedication, and quickly respond to events [30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 What is Research and What Does Capital Market Research Focus on? - The core of research is to find causal relationships and make future predictions. The difficulties lie in clearly identifying causal relationships and finding the core reasons at different stages [2][14]. - In capital market research, the change in asset prices is the result, and it aims to find influencing factors and predict price trends. A good capital market research should have clear conclusions, logical arguments, and detailed data [15]. 3.2 The Key to Capital Market Research: Simplify Complexity and Capture Expectations - First, understand the impact direction and amplitude of each factor on asset pricing. When new events occur, quickly predict price changes based on accumulated causal relationships [16]. - Second, simplify complexity by accurately grasping the main - line logic and finding important variables. For example, the bond market has "three aspects" and the stock market has three pricing factors [18]. - Third, capture market participants' consistent expectations. Asset pricing involves both actual impacts and expected changes, and only the part beyond expectations can bring excess returns [19]. 3.3 How to Quickly Go from Novice to Expert? History is the Best Teacher - By studying history, one can understand the relationship between events and asset performance, build a research analysis library, and quickly make predictions when similar events occur [20]. - The more one knows about the history of an asset, the more likely they are to gain returns, and the 10,000 - hour rule applies to investment research [22]. 3.4 Total Research is More Complex Because the World is Always Changing - Macro - research is complex as the macro - environment is constantly changing, and changes in factors or variables may invalidate the analysis framework and lead to inaccurate future judgments [5][23]. - One needs to maintain the ability to learn quickly, review the impact of events and policies, and update the analysis framework [7][24]. 3.5 Research and Investment: Interrelated but Different - Research discovers rules, while investment breaks them. Investment needs to confront market sentiment, buy when the market is ignored, and sell when it is popular [8][25]. - Research should be on the left - hand side and adhere to judgments, while investment may be on the right - hand side and make compromises when necessary to control retracements [28][29]. 3.6 How to Do Well in Capital Market Research? - To do well in capital market research, one needs passion and dedication, and quickly respond to events without over - complicating analysis [30]. - One should invest a lot of time and energy, distinguish logic and priorities from daily changes, and focus on the main contradictions [30].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The integration of "Artificial Intelligence+" is deepening, with AI maintaining high performance in overseas computing power chains, despite short-term volatility pressures. Recommended companies include Unisplendour, ZTE, StarNet, Guanghui New Network, Aofei Data, Data Port, Invec, New Ray Energy, and Wangsu Technology, with related beneficiaries such as Runze Technology and Baoxin Software [1][6][11] - In the long term, the computing power industry chain is still in its early growth stage, driven by reasoning power and model iteration upgrades. Beneficiaries include NewEase, Zhongji Xuchuang, and Tianfu Communication, with CPO-related beneficiaries like Taicheng Light and Yuanjie Technology, and PCB-related beneficiaries such as Shenghong Technology and Hude Electronics [1][7] - The demand for domestic computing power, private cloud, and integrated government and enterprise cloud deployment is expected to accelerate, with beneficiaries including Cambricon, Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology, Tuwei Information, and Weishi Jiajie [1][7][11] Summary by Sections Section 1: AI and Computing Power - AI is becoming a new engine for economic growth, with significant integration into various industries. The government is promoting the commercialization of AI applications [6] - The recent discussions around the H20 computing chip vulnerabilities are expected to accelerate the domestic production chain, with beneficiaries including SMIC, Cambricon, StarNet, and others [2][10] Section 2: Recommendations in the Communication Sector - Recommended companies in the computing and communication infrastructure include China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, along with equipment manufacturers like ZTE and Unisplendour [11][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of third-party computing power leasing companies such as Guanghui New Network and Aofei Data, with additional beneficiaries like Runze Technology and Baoxin Software [11][13] Section 3: Optical Network and Edge Computing - Beneficiaries in the optical network upgrade include Guangxun Technology, Huagong Technology, and Tianfu Communication [14] - In edge computing, recommended companies include Wangsu Technology, Youkede, and Qianlong Technology, focusing on high-performance SoC chips [15]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The pork market is experiencing an oversupply, leading to a continued decline in pork prices. The average price of external three yuan pigs is 14.13 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week decrease of 1.09% [2][12] - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs emphasizes the need for quality improvement and efficiency enhancement in the pig industry, suggesting that outdated production capacity will gradually be eliminated [2][13] - The report highlights the potential benefits of genetically modified crops in increasing yield and self-sufficiency rates for key varieties, with specific companies recommended for investment [12] Summary by Sections Planting Industry - A meeting was held to discuss increasing crop yields in Northeast China, which is crucial for national food security. The region has seen improvements in planting density and technology, contributing to stable yield increases [1] - Companies such as Beidahuang and Suqian Agricultural Development are expected to benefit from these developments, along with seed companies like Dabeinong and Longping High-Tech [1][12] Pig Farming - The average price of pigs has shown a downward trend, with the average weight of slaughtered pigs decreasing for eight consecutive weeks. The number of breeding sows has also decreased slightly [2][12] - The report suggests focusing on companies with significant cost improvements and high future output elasticity, including DeKang Agriculture and Mu Yuan Co., Ltd. [13] Key Agricultural Product Data Tracking - Corn: The average price is 2406.65 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.09% [27] - Wheat: The average price is 2440.86 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 0.08% [30] - Rice: The average price of japonica rice is 2912.00 yuan/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.14% [35] - Soybeans: The average price is 3926.32 yuan/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [40] - Cotton: The average price is 15410.00 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 0.02% [47] Feed and Vitamin Prices - The average price of pig feed is 2.73 yuan/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.37% [53] - The average price of vitamin E is 68.00 yuan/kg, remaining stable week-on-week [62]