证券研究报告|金融工程研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 3 日 [Table_Title] 7 月份超额收益继续加速——盈利预期期限结构选股月报 202508 [Table_Summary] ► 盈利预期期限结构因子 分析师在某一时点会对上市公司未来多年的盈利做出预 测，我们将预期盈利随未来年度变化的趋势称为盈利预期期 限结构。 我们选择盈利增速、盈利增速加速度综合排名提升最多 的股票，形成的股票组合走势表现优异。 与传统的分析师预期提升策略相比，本方法既体现了年 度间的盈利预期期限结构，又体现了历史业绩成长。 ► 选股组合表现 在沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 内分别选择 综合因子值排名前 50、50、100、100 名的股票，构成选股组 合。 2025 年 7 月，沪深 300 选股组合、中证 500 选股组合、 中证 800 选股组合、中证 1000 选股组合超额收益继续加速， 大幅跑赢基准，超额收益分别为 2.89%、3.23%、3.39%、 0.99%。 2025 年前 7 个月，沪深 300、中证 500、中证 800、中证 1000 选股组合涨幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - Figma's IPO on July 31, 2025, exceeded expectations, with a first-day stock price surge of 250%, reaching a market capitalization of $56.3 billion, setting a new record for tech IPOs [1][13][25] - The "AI+" policy aims to drive the large-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence, promoting deep integration of technology across various sectors, enhancing innovation and application cycles [2][14][32] - The report highlights key beneficiaries in the AI sector, including companies focused on computing power, AI healthcare, AI large models, and AI office applications [3][21] Summary by Sections Figma's IPO and Market Position - Figma's successful IPO marked its transition from a high-growth startup to a mature public company, with a user base exceeding 13 million monthly active users, two-thirds of whom are non-designers [13][19][29] - The company faces competition from Adobe and Canva, necessitating continuous innovation to maintain its market leadership [1][24][30] "AI+" Policy and Industry Integration - The "AI+" initiative emphasizes the integration of AI into manufacturing, healthcare, and finance, with local governments actively promoting policies to support this integration [2][14][34][39] - Shanghai and Beijing are leading efforts in AI applications, focusing on manufacturing and healthcare respectively, aiming to enhance efficiency and innovation in these sectors [34][42] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include companies in computing power such as Cambrian and Zhongheng Electric, AI healthcare firms like RunDa Medical and Weining Health, and AI large model companies like iFlytek and Kunlun Wanwei [3][21][18]

Liquidity Overview - The overnight interest rate has returned to 1.3% as of August 2, 2025, with a stable liquidity environment across the month-end period from July 28 to August 1[1] - The central bank's net short-term reverse repos amounted to 1.32 trillion yuan during the month-end, supporting liquidity needs[1] - The 7-day funding rate decreased to 1.40% in early August, indicating a loosening of liquidity conditions[2] Monetary Policy Insights - The Politburo meeting in July emphasized maintaining ample liquidity, with the central bank reaffirming a moderately loose monetary policy in its August 1 meeting[2] - The market is not expected to face similar tightening of funding rates as seen in January to March 2025[2] Market Trends - The bill market saw a significant drop in rates, with the 1-month bill rate falling to 0.20%, down 82 basis points from the previous week, indicating weak credit demand[4] - Major banks recorded a net purchase of 592.8 billion yuan in bills for July 2025, a historical monthly high compared to 124.1 billion yuan in July 2024[4] Government Debt Activity - Government debt net payments increased to 339 billion yuan from 287.6 billion yuan the previous week, driven by a substantial rise in national bond payments[5] - The planned issuance of government bonds for August 4-8 is set at 578.5 billion yuan, with national bonds accounting for 413 billion yuan[5] Interbank Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The weighted issuance rate for CDs was 1.63%, up 2 basis points week-on-week, but showed a decline to 1.69% post-month-end[6] - The upcoming week (August 4-8) will see 583.8 billion yuan in CDs maturing, indicating increased maturity pressure compared to the previous week[6] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected changes in liquidity and adjustments in monetary policy due to economic data exceeding expectations or shifts in overseas monetary policies[7]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in copper production for Q2 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 40.3% to 57,416 tonnes, primarily driven by increased output from Mantoverde and Mantos Blancos [1][2] - The C1 cash cost for copper in Q2 2025 was reported at $2.45 per pound, a decrease of 12.5% year-on-year, attributed to higher production volumes and lower production costs [2] - The average realized copper price in Q2 2025 was $4.39 per pound, reflecting a 3.1% decline year-on-year but a 0.7% increase quarter-on-quarter [2] Production and Operational Performance - Q2 2025 copper sales reached 53,977 tonnes, marking a 35.8% increase year-on-year, although it fell short of production by approximately 1,800 tonnes due to sales scheduling at Mantos Blancos [1] - The report indicates that the total sulphide production for Q2 2025 was 47,086 tonnes, compared to 30,374 tonnes in Q2 2024, showcasing a robust operational performance [10] - The report also details the production costs for various sites, with Mantoverde's C1 cash cost at $1.51 per pound and Mantos Blancos at $1.87 per pound [10] Financial Performance - The company reported revenues of $543.2 million for Q2 2025, a 38.2% increase year-on-year [3][13] - Net income attributable to shareholders for Q2 2025 was $30 million, a 9.1% increase compared to the previous year, recovering from a loss of $1.2 million in Q1 2025 [3][13] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $215.6 million, reflecting a 75.1% increase year-on-year, driven by higher sulphide production [3][13] Debt and Liquidity - As of March 31, 2025, net debt stood at $788.1 million, slightly up from $742 million at the end of 2024, primarily due to working capital changes [4][8] - By June 30, 2025, net debt decreased to $691.9 million, indicating improved liquidity and financial management [8] 2025 Guidance - The company reaffirmed its 2025 guidance for total copper production between 220,000 to 250,000 tonnes, with C1 cash costs projected between $2.20 to $2.50 per pound [9] - Capital expenditures are expected to be $315 million, with exploration spending set at $25 million [9]

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 8 月 2 日 [Table_Title] Eldorado Gold 2025Q2 黄金产/销量环比增加 15.4%/13.1%至 4.16/4.09 吨，调整后净利润环 比增长 59.8%至 9010 万美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 销售成本：2025Q2 销售成本为 1.622 亿美元，环比减少 22.0%，同比增长 26.9%。由于黄金销售量的增加以及特许权 使用费的增加，其中特许权使用费的增加约占生产成本增加的 三分之一。其余成本主要与土耳其（Turkiye）和 拉马克 （Lamaque）的劳动力成本上涨有关。土耳其（Turkiye）的成 本上涨持续超过当地货币的贬值速度。拉马克（Lamaque）的 劳动力成本也上涨。由于 Triangle 矿生产中心的深化，导致运 输距离、设备和人员需求增加，导致劳动力和承包商成本增 加。 净利润：2025Q2 净利润为 1.39 美元，环比增长 89.0%，同比 增长 146.5%。主要是由于营业收入的增加，这主要是由于平 ...

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the company's self-owned copper production decreased by 21.0% year-on-year to 176,000 tons, while cobalt production increased by 1.1% to 9,400 tons [1][3] - The company reported a significant increase in zinc production, which rose by 18.9% year-on-year to 251,600 tons, and a decrease in lead and nickel production [1][2] - The first half of 2025 saw a 26% decrease in copper production compared to the first half of 2024, attributed to mining sequencing and lower ore grades [3][7] Summary by Relevant Sections Q2 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 176,000 tons, down 21.0% year-on-year, up 4.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned cobalt production: 9,400 tons, up 1.1% year-on-year, down 1.1% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned zinc production: 251,600 tons, up 18.9% year-on-year, up 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned lead production: 41,000 tons, down 7.0% year-on-year, down 17.8% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned nickel production: 17,800 tons, down 12.7% year-on-year, down 5.3% quarter-on-quarter - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [1][2][3] H1 2025 Production Overview - Self-owned copper production: 343,900 tons, down 26% year-on-year - Self-owned cobalt production: 18,900 tons, up 19% year-on-year - Self-owned zinc production: 465,200 tons, up 12% year-on-year - Self-owned lead production: 90,900 tons, up 3% year-on-year - Self-owned nickel production: 36,600 tons, down 7% year-on-year - Self-owned gold production: 301,000 ounces (9.36 tons), down 18% year-on-year - Self-owned silver production: 9,097,000 ounces (282.95 tons), down 0.2% year-on-year [3][7][8] 2025 Production Guidance - Updated production guidance reflects a tightening of ranges, considering year-to-date performance and expected full-year results [11][13]

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, Kinross reported a gold production of 512,574 ounces (15.94 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.1% [2] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,285 per ounce, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 40.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 15.0% [2] - Net profit attributable to common shareholders reached $530.7 million in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 151.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 44.2% [4] Production and Sales Performance - Gold sales in Q2 2025 were 508,300 ounces (15.81 tons), a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.3% [2] - The unit sales profit for gold in Q2 2025 was $2,204 per ounce, a 68% increase compared to $1,313 per ounce in Q2 2024 [3] - The total cost per ounce sold in Q2 2025 was $1,936, which is a 9.1% increase year-on-year and a 15.4% increase quarter-on-quarter [3] Financial Performance - Sales revenue for Q2 2025 increased to $1.7285 billion, a year-on-year growth of 41.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 15.4% [4] - Operating profit for Q2 2025 was $774.8 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 159.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 35.8% [4] - The net cash flow from operating activities was $992.4 million in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 64.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.2% [6] Capital Expenditures and Cash Management - Capital expenditures in Q2 2025 were $306.1 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.6% [6] - As of June 30, 2025, Kinross had cash and cash equivalents of $1.1365 billion, up from $694.6 million on March 31, 2025 [6] - The company has an additional available credit line of $1.6 billion, with total liquidity of approximately $2.8 billion [6] Development Projects - Kinross is advancing the AEX project at the Great Bear mine, with construction expected to start in Q4 2024 [8] - The Redbird mine expansion project is progressing as planned, with ongoing studies and engineering work [9] - Baseline studies for the Lobo-Marte project are being conducted to support the environmental impact assessment [11]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q2 2025, the gold production increased by 9.8% quarter-on-quarter to 137,200 ounces (4.27 tons), while sales rose by 14.8% to 135,027 ounces (4.20 tons) [1][3] - The average realized gold price in Q2 2025 was $3,223 per ounce, reflecting a 15.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 38.0% increase year-on-year [1][3] - Adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was $144.1 million, a 141.0% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 48.7% increase year-on-year [3][5] Production and Financial Performance - Total cash costs in Q2 2025 were $1,075 per ounce, down 9.9% quarter-on-quarter but up 29.5% year-on-year [2][12] - All-in sustaining costs (AISC) for Q2 2025 were $1,475 per ounce, a decrease of 18.3% quarter-on-quarter and an increase of 34.6% year-on-year [2][12] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached $438.2 million, a 31.6% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 31.7% increase year-on-year [3][12] Growth Projects - The Island Gold mine's Phase III expansion is expected to significantly drive production growth and reduce costs by 2026, with an anticipated average annual production of 411,000 ounces in the first 12 years [7] - The Lynn Lake project has temporarily halted construction due to wildfires, with expectations to resume in Q3 2025 and complete by late 2028 [8] 2025 Guidance - For Q3 2025, production is expected to increase to between 145,000 and 155,000 ounces, with total cash costs projected to decrease by 5% [9][11] - The full-year guidance for total cash costs is revised to $975 to $1,025 per ounce, with AISC expected to be $1,400 to $1,450 per ounce [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In July, the year-on-year decline in property market transactions widened. Both second - hand and new home transactions showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different performance in different city - tiers [1][2]. 3. Summary based on Related Contents Second - hand Housing Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 1.96 million square meters, with a 3% week - on - week decline and a 4% year - on - year decline, and the decline has continued for eight weeks. The cumulative year - on - year decline in July was 4%, slightly higher than 3% in June [1]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The weekly transaction area was basically flat compared with last week. Beijing increased by 9%, Shanghai decreased by 1%, and Shenzhen decreased by 15%. Year - on - year, it has declined for eight weeks, with a 6% decline this week, and the decline has expanded by 3 percentage points compared with last week [1]. - **Second - tier Cities**: The weekly transaction area decreased by 7% week - on - week for two consecutive weeks. Cities like Suzhou and Chengdu had declines of 14% and 16% respectively, while Hangzhou, Xiamen and Qingdao had increases. Year - on - year, the decline was 8% [2]. - **Third - tier Cities**: The transaction area changed from an increase to a decrease, with a slight 1% decline. Dongguan and Yangzhou had declines, while Foshan and Jiangmen had increases. Year - on - year, there was a 19% increase [2]. New Home Transactions - **Overall Situation**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area of new homes in 38 cities was 2.44 million square meters, with a 25% week - on - week increase and an 18% year - on - year decline, and the decline has continued for eight weeks. The cumulative year - on - year decline in July was 17%, weaker than previous months [2]. - **By City - Tier**: - **First - tier Cities**: The week - on - week change turned from a decline to an increase, with a 31% increase this week. Shanghai, Beijing and Guangzhou had increases, while Shenzhen decreased by 13%. Year - on - year, it has declined for eight weeks, with a 24% decline this week, and the decline has expanded by 2 percentage points compared with last week [3]. - **Second - tier Cities**: The week - on - week increase continued for two weeks, with a 23% increase. Qingdao and Suzhou had relatively large increases, while some cities like Chengdu, Nanning and Jinan had declines. Year - on - year, the decline was 12% [3]. - **Third - tier Cities**: There was a 22% week - on - week increase. Cities like Jiangyin, Wenzhou and Ningbo had large increases. Year - on - year, the decline was 22% [3]. Key City Observations - **First - tier Cities**: - **Second - hand Housing**: In the week from July 25 - 31, the transaction area was basically flat compared with last week, with a 6% year - on - year decline. Shanghai and Beijing had year - on - year declines, while Shenzhen had a 10% increase [24]. - **New Homes**: The week - on - week increase was 31%, with a 24% year - on - year decline. Shenzhen had the largest decline at 60%, and other cities also had varying degrees of decline [25]. - **Hangzhou**: The second - hand and new home transaction areas increased by 8% and 27% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 54% and 16% of the 2024 high points [26]. - **Chengdu**: The second - hand and new home transaction areas decreased by 16% and 5% respectively compared with the previous week, equivalent to 53% and 35% of the 2024 high points [26]. Housing Price Observation From July 21 - 27, the weekly listing prices of second - hand housing in Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen decreased by 0.29%, 0.21% and 0.38% respectively week - on - week. Compared with the week before the "924" policy last year, they all decreased, with declines of 1.4%, 6.9% and 6.2% respectively [52].