长江期货尿素周报： 上下有限 区间震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 尿素：上下有限 区间震荡 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：价格：尿素周度价格先强后弱，8月8日尿素2509合约收盘价1728元/吨，较上周上调19元/吨，涨幅 1.11%。尿素现货河南市场日均价1771元/吨，较上周上调17元/吨，涨幅0.97%。基差：尿素主力基差震荡运行， 周度基差运行区间-8-45元/吨，8月8日河南市场主力基差43元/吨，较上周基本持平，期间8月5日收盘基差-8元/吨。 价差：尿素9-1价差走弱，表现为01合约升水，8月8日9-1价差-23元/吨，周度运行区间-23——-10元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端中国尿素开工负荷率82.72%，较上周降低2.21个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率75.47%， 较上周降低3.15个百分点，尿素日均产量18.98万吨。成本端无烟煤市场价格稳中偏强调整，下游用煤企业原料煤采 购仍以刚需为主，对高价煤接受度一般。截至8月7日，山西晋城S0.4-0.5无烟洗小块含税价820-890元 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6] - Black Building Materials: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [6][7][8] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [6][12][14] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuate [23][25][27] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [38] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pig - short on rallies; Egg - short on rallies; Corn - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - limited upside; Oils - limited rebound [41][44][45] Core Views - The global market shows mixed performance with different indexes having various trends. In the futures market, different products are affected by multiple factors such as macro - economic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes, resulting in different expected price movements [2][6] - In the macro - financial sector, the stock index may fluctuate due to the combination of Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market. The 10 - year treasury bond may fluctuate around 1.70% [6] - In the black building materials sector, the supply - demand of rebar is relatively balanced, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Iron ore may fluctuate strongly, and coking coal and coke may continue to fluctuate due to supply and demand factors [7][8][10] - In the non - ferrous metals sector, copper may fluctuate weakly at a high level. Aluminum may be bought on dips considering its supply - demand and inventory situation. Nickel may fluctuate, and tin and precious metals may fluctuate within a certain range [12][14][18] - In the energy and chemicals sector, products like PVC, caustic soda, and styrene may fluctuate due to cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors. Soda ash is recommended for a short 09 and long 05 arbitrage [23][25][27] - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn may fluctuate and adjust. Apple and jujube may fluctuate weakly due to supply - demand in the spot market [38] - In the agricultural and livestock sector, pigs and eggs may be shorted on rallies. Corn may fluctuate within a range, soybean meal may have limited upside, and oils may have a limited rebound [41][44][45] Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Index Futures: Fluctuate. Influenced by Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and domestic market resilience, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover [6] - Treasury Bonds: Fluctuate. The 10 - year treasury bond may use 1.70% as the central position of the operating range, considering the current market situation and upcoming events [6] Black Building Materials - Rebar: Fluctuate. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and it may enter a short - term fluctuating pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal [7][8] - Iron Ore: Fluctuate. The market starts to trade events such as military parade, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, it may fluctuate strongly [8] - Coking Coal and Coke: Fluctuate. For coking coal, the supply is disturbed, and the demand is cautious. For coke, the supply and demand are in a balanced state with multiple factors affecting the market [10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Fluctuate weakly at a high level. Affected by macro - data, supply - demand in the industry, and tariff policies, it may continue to fluctuate weakly [12][13] - Aluminum: Fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite and alumina, the production capacity of electrolytic aluminum, and the demand and inventory situation all affect the price. It is recommended to buy on dips [14][15][16] - Nickel: Fluctuate. The nickel market has an oversupply pattern, and the price may fluctuate within a certain range [18] - Tin: Fluctuate. The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, and it is recommended for range trading [20] - Gold and Silver: Fluctuate. Affected by US economic data, trade policies, and Fed's interest - rate policies, they are expected to fluctuate with support at the bottom [20][22] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Fluctuate. High supply, uncertain export sustainability, and macro - factors may lead to short - term fluctuations [23][24] - Soda Ash: Short 09 and long 05 arbitrage. The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing, so this arbitrage strategy is recommended [35][36][37] - Caustic Soda: Fluctuate. The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but a slowing growth rate. It may fluctuate within a certain range [25][26] - Styrene: Fluctuate. The cost, supply - demand, and macro - factors affect the price, and it may fluctuate within a certain range [27][29] - Rubber: Fluctuate. The cost and supply support are limited, and the demand is weak, so it may fluctuate slightly [30][31] - Urea: Fluctuate. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is increasing, so the price may fluctuate within a certain range [32][33] - Methanol: Fluctuate. The supply is increasing slightly, and the demand is relatively stable. It may fluctuate due to the overall industrial product price fluctuations [33] - Polyolefins: Fluctuate weakly. The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. It may fluctuate within a certain range [33][34] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Fluctuate and adjust. The global cotton supply and demand situation and the domestic market situation may lead to price fluctuations [38] - Apple: Fluctuate weakly. The slow sales of apples in the spot market and the normal growth of new fruits may lead to price pressure [38][39] - Jujube: Fluctuate weakly. The new - season situation in the production area and the supply - demand in the sales area may lead to price fluctuations [39] Agricultural and Livestock - Pig: Short on rallies. The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. Different contracts have different price trends and trading strategies [41][43] - Egg: Short on rallies. The current supply and demand situation and the long - term supply trend affect the price, and different contracts have different trading strategies [44][45] - Corn: Range fluctuate. The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the long - term cost is decreasing. It may fluctuate within a certain range [45][46] - Soybean Meal: Limited upside. The short - term supply is abundant, and the long - term supply may have a gap. Different contracts have different trading strategies [47][48] - Oils: Limited rebound. The supply - demand of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors, and the price may have a limited rebound [49][50][54]

Overall Investment Outlook - The stock index is expected to fluctuate, influenced by the Fed's rate - cut expectations and the resilience of the domestic market [1] - The 10 - year treasury bond is likely to fluctuate, with 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Stock Index Core View - Trump nominated Stephen Milan, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, as a Fed governor until the end of January next year. Fed Governor Waller is considered a top candidate for Fed Chair by the Trump team. The number of continued unemployment claims in the US last week rose to the highest since the end of 2021. China's exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year in US dollars, and imports increased by 4.1%. China's foreign exchange reserves in July decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. The stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the stock index may fluctuate [1] Strategy Recommendation - The stock index is expected to have a fluctuating trend [1] Market Review - The main contract futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 fell by 0.15%, 0.01%, 0.64%, and 0.30% respectively [5] Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [5] Treasury Bond Core View - The market on Thursday continued the recent favorable pattern, with the yield moving downward. Although the July import and export data announced on Thursday were much better than expected and the previous values, the market did not price them much. Other fundamental data may decline in the short term. Considering the approaching major event in September, production restrictions may increase, and the intensity of production activities will decline. The 10 - year treasury bond will likely have 1.70% as the central position of the operating range [2] Strategy Recommendation - The treasury bond market is expected to fluctuate [3] Market Review - The 10 - year, 5 - year, and 30 - year main contracts of treasury bonds rose by 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively, while the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [6] Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [7] Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,092.60 | - 0.15 | 54,603 | 149,221 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,797.80 | - 0.01 | 29,486 | 56,447 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,226.40 | - 0.64 | 48,504 | 106,065 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,750.00 | - 0.30 | 119,420 | 179,795 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 10 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.62 | 0.05 | 55,898 | 168,410 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 5 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.83 | 0.05 | 49,908 | 116,978 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 30 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.37 | 0.03 | 98,360 | 97,159 | | 2025 - 08 - 07 | 2 - year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.00 | 31,654 | 83,798 | [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - wait and see; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coke and coking coal - fluctuate [6][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or wait and see; Aluminum - buy on dips; Nickel - wait and see or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [11][14][16]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefin - wide - range fluctuate [21][23][25]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apple - fluctuate weakly; Jujube - fluctuate weakly [37][38][40]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuate; Soybean meal - range fluctuate; Oils - fluctuate strongly [41][43][47]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes various futures markets, including macro - financial, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy and chemicals, cotton textile, and agriculture and animal husbandry. It assesses the impact of events such as tariffs, policies, and supply - demand relationships on prices and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by events like Trump's tariff policies and Fed's stance, with the Fed's mixed signals on interest rates and corporate investment moves, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After a monthly - level adjustment, the bond market is expected to recover in the short - term due to factors like the macro data vacuum period, stable and loose capital, and institutional demand for position - filling. However, the previous adjustment was not deep, so the recovery will be limited [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price is affected by factors such as the new "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" and the supply - demand balance. The futures price is above the electric furnace valley - electricity cost, and it is expected to enter a fluctuating pattern. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Considering the decline in iron ore shipments and the expected decrease in iron - water demand, but with potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg in shorting other black varieties, with the 09 contract supported at 770 [8]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: For coking coal, the supply is limited, and the demand has returned to normal after restocking. The price is expected to fluctuate. For coke, after the fifth price increase, the supply has increased, and the demand is stable. It is expected to follow coking coal and fluctuate [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by factors such as the Fed's interest - rate stance, tariff policies, and supply - demand in the off - season, the copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. The technical support is at 77600 [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite shipment from Guinea is decreasing, and the alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing. With the decline in downstream demand and inventory accumulation, the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to build long positions at low levels [13]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an over - supply situation, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: The supply and demand gap is improving, and the downstream semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The price is expected to fluctuate, and range trading is recommended [17]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data, interest - rate expectations, and tariff policies, the precious metals' prices are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips [19]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain exports, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2530, with short - term long opportunities in the far - month contracts [25]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals are not favorable, and the macro is positive. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [27]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support, weak demand, and slow inventory reduction, the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [28]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is gradually picking up. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and pressured at the top, with range trading recommended [32]. - **Methanol**: The supply is slightly increasing, and the demand is stable. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate with the overall industrial product prices [33]. - **Polyolefin**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [34]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, and the supply is increasing. It is recommended to short the 09 contract and long the 05 contract for arbitrage [37]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are both increasing, and the inventory is rising. The Xinjiang production is expected to be good, and the downstream consumption is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [38]. - **Apple**: The spot market is weak, with slow inventory clearance and seasonal fruit competition. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [38]. - **Jujube**: The new - season production in the producing area is uncertain, and the sales area has limited arrivals. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [40]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The short - term supply is increasing, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the supply will increase significantly after September. In the long - term, the supply will continue to grow. It is recommended to short on rallies and consider the 05 - 03 arbitrage [42]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by the high - temperature season, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. However, the long - term supply is expected to increase due to high - level replenishment. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the elimination situation [43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are in a game, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350. It is recommended to be cautious about going long unilaterally and consider the 9 - 1 reverse - spread arbitrage [44]. - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term supply is abundant, and the demand is stable. The price is expected to have limited upside. In the long - term, there may be a supply gap. It is recommended to build long positions cautiously in the short - term and adjust positions in the long - term [46]. - **Oils**: Although there are positive factors such as the expected reduction in palm oil supply and the improvement of soybean oil inventory, the short - term supply - demand situation and high inventory may limit the upward rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up and consider arbitrage strategies [47].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - Trump plans to impose a 100% tariff on chip products, with companies like Apple building factories in the US being exempt; under tariff pressure, Apple invests an additional $100 billion in US manufacturing. Trump orders an extra 25% tariff on India, but Apple is unaffected. Indian media reports that Modi will visit China from August 31 to September 1 to attend the SCO Tianjin Summit. The Swiss leader's attempt to persuade Trump before the 39% tariff takes effect is allegedly unsuccessful. The US-Japan trade agreement dispute persists, and the US plans to impose an additional 15% tariff on the existing tariff basis. With the expectation of a Fed rate cut and the resilience of the domestic market, the stock market trading volume and index continue to recover, and index futures may fluctuate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Recently, as the macro narrative temporarily fades, a low-volatility state may return to the bond market. Coupled with the refined operation of the roll spread by trading desks, the narrowing of the recent fluctuation range may be inevitable. In the short term, the relatively favorable conditions for the bond market mainly come from: the window period of macro data and the expectation that data such as social financing may weaken, the continuous stable and loose capital situation, and the need for some institutions to replenish positions after portfolio adjustments. However, the previous bond market adjustment was not a deep one, so the recent recovery will also be relatively limited [2]. Strategy Recommendations Index Futures - Fluctuate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Fluctuate [2]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.37%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.19%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 rose 1.09%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 rose 1.34% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10-year main contract remained unchanged, the 5-year main contract rose 0.02%, the 30-year main contract fell 0.04%, and the 2-year main contract rose 0.02% [5]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The KDJ indicator shows that the market has a rebound trend [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Futures Data | Date | Futures Variety | Closing Price (yuan/piece) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (lots) | Open Interest (lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 300 Continuous | 4,097.00 | 0.37 | 42,038 | 144,956 | | 2025-08-06 | SSE 50 Continuous | 2,796.20 | 0.19 | 23,697 | 55,640 | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 500 Continuous | 6,263.20 | 1.09 | 37,260 | 103,512 | | 2025-08-06 | CSI 1000 Continuous | 6,762.60 | 1.34 | 106,338 | 178,409 | | 2025-08-06 | 10-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 108.56 | 0.00 | 64,393 | 170,929 | | 2025-08-06 | 5-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 105.78 | 0.02 | 47,098 | 121,825 | | 2025-08-06 | 30-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 119.33 | -0.04 | 78,797 | 100,822 | | 2025-08-06 | 2-Year Treasury Bond Continuous | 102.37 | 0.02 | 27,216 | 86,480 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Index Futures - Trump threatens to significantly increase tariffs on India over oil purchases from Russia; Switzerland plans to offer a more attractive trade proposal to the US to reduce tariffs; the President of the San Francisco Fed predicts more than two interest rate cuts this year; the former third - in - command of the Fed believes internal differences are exaggerated. A - share new account openings in July increased by 71%. With high margin trading in China, a decline in fund holding ratios, and the Politburo meeting not exceeding expectations, there may be minor fluctuations during the intensive semi - annual report disclosure period in late August, and index futures may oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on interest income from government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds on Friday, there was a wave of "scrambling for old bonds" in the bond market. On Monday, the yield of active bonds dropped by 1 - 1.5BP compared to Friday's last trading. Without major positive or negative factors, the market may return to low - volatility, and the 10 - year Treasury bond may oscillate within a narrow range around 1.70 [2]. Market Review Index Futures - The main contract futures of CSI 300 rose 0.52%, SSE 50 rose 0.54%, CSI 500 rose 0.97%, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The 10 - year main contract rose 0.02%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.01%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.08%, and the 2 - year main contract remained unchanged [5]. Technical Analysis Index Futures - The KDJ indicator shows a rebound trend for the broader market [4]. Treasury Bond Futures - The MACD indicator shows that the T main contract may rebound [6]. Strategy Suggestions Index Futures - Oscillate [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - Oscillate [2]. Futures Data (2025 - 08 - 04) | Futures Variety | Closing Price (Yuan/Contract) | Change (%) | Trading Volume (Lots) | Open Interest (Lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CSI 300 Main Continuous | 4,052.80 | 0.52 | 44,736 | 146,808 | | SSE 50 Main Continuous | 2,770.40 | 0.54 | 24,294 | 56,661 | | CSI 500 Main Continuous | 6,169.00 | 0.97 | 42,885 | 102,178 | | CSI 1000 Main Continuous | 6,642.60 | 1.42 | 119,420 | 177,500 | | 10 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 108.47 | 0.02 | 77,910 | 175,703 | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 105.72 | - 0.01 | 62,616 | 128,789 | | 30 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 119.19 | 0.08 | 122,755 | 105,770 | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Main Continuous | 102.35 | 0.00 | 36,387 | 90,529 | [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is advised to wait and see; iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing; aluminum is recommended to go long after a pullback; nickel is advised to wait and see or go short at high prices; tin and precious metals are for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most products are expected to fluctuate, with PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol in a fluctuating state; polyolefins in wide - range fluctuations; and the 09 contract of soda ash maintaining a short position [1][23]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and adjust; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to go short at high prices; corn is for range trading; soybean meal has limited upside; and oils are at high - level with increased risk of a callback [1][39]. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes various futures products in different industries. It considers multiple factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and international trade situations to predict the future price trends of each product and provides corresponding investment strategies [6][8][11]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Influenced by international trade issues, Fed policy expectations, and domestic market conditions, A - share new account openings increased in July, and the market may fluctuate slightly during the mid - report disclosure period in late August. Index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the announcement of the resumption of VAT on bond interest income, the short - term impact on the bond market is limited. With overseas data weakening and possible mediocre July social financing data, the bond market has some positive factors, but the basis for a sharp rise is lacking. 10 - year treasury bonds may fluctuate in a small range around 1.70 [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: After the Sino - US talks and the adjustment of relevant statements in the Politburo meeting, the market's over - optimistic expectations have cooled. The current supply - demand is relatively balanced, and the price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is oscillating strongly. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decrease in hot metal demand, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly. It can be considered as a long - leg configuration when shorting other black varieties [8]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal supply has regional differentiation, and demand is relatively stable. Coke supply is affected by cost and profit, and demand is affected by steel mills and traders. Both markets are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to relevant influencing factors [9]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by US economic data, Fed policy, and international trade policies, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Technically, there is support at the 77600 level [11]. - **Aluminum**: Due to the impact of the rainy season in Guinea on bauxite supply and the expected resumption of a large - scale mine, the upward space of ore prices is limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long after a pullback [13]. - **Nickel**: The nickel industry has an oversupply situation in the medium - to - long term, with limited consumption growth. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season of demand. It is recommended to conduct range trading, focusing on the supply resumption and downstream demand [20]. - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by US employment data, trade negotiations, and Fed policy, precious metals are expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price correction [20][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply, weak demand, and uncertain export sustainability, PVC is expected to fluctuate shortly, with the 09 contract focusing on the 4950 - 5150 range [23][24]. - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, the demand is showing a slowdown in growth, and the market lacks substantial positive factors. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2400 - 2600 range, and there may be opportunities to go long on the 10 - contract on dips [26]. - **Styrene**: The fundamental positives are limited, and the macro - environment is relatively warm. The price is expected to fluctuate, focusing on the 7200 - 7500 range [27][28]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support at 14000. Although there is a short - term rebound expectation, the overall situation is not optimistic [29][30]. - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand is increasing, and the overall supply - demand pattern is neutral. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1680 - 1820 range [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply is slightly increasing, the demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product price [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, but there is an expectation of increased PE demand. The price is expected to fluctuate, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [33][34]. - **Soda Ash**: In the initial stage of a negative feedback cycle, with large delivery pressure on the 09 contract, it is recommended to maintain a short position [35][36]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are increasing, and the Xinjiang output is expected to be good. The downstream consumption is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [36]. - **Apples**: The spot market is weak, the new fruit growth is normal, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - **Jujubes**: In the growth period of jujube trees, the futures price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to new developments in the production area [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: The short - term price is supported by farmers' resistance to price cuts and secondary fattening, but the long - term supply is increasing. Different contracts have different trends, and attention can be paid to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [39][41]. - **Eggs**: The short - term supply is affected by high - temperature weather, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally, but the supply pressure is large. The 09 contract is recommended to go short at high prices, and the 12 and 01 contracts can be considered to go long on dips [41][43]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to range between 2250 - 2350. Attention can be paid to the 9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [43][44]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there may be a supply gap, and it is recommended to go long on dips for some contracts [46]. - **Oils**: The short - term risk of a high - level callback is increasing, but the callback range is limited. It is recommended to take profits on existing long positions and pay attention to the soybean - palm oil 09 spread rebound strategy [47][51].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of urea is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties, urea prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [47] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Market Review - In July, the urea market was initially strong due to expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The futures price of urea fluctuated upward, reaching a maximum of 1828 yuan/ton. Then, market sentiment cooled, and the price dropped. On August 1st, the 09 - contract of urea closed at 1709 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton lower than at the beginning of the previous month. The spot price also rose first and then fell, with the Henan market price at 1760 yuan/ton, close to the level at the beginning of the previous month [6] - The basis of the main urea contract (Henan) fluctuated narrowly in July, weakened as the futures price soared, and then strengthened as the futures price declined at the end of the month, with an operating range of 3 - 76 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 price difference of urea showed a weakening trend, with the closing price difference on July 31st at - 22 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton smaller than at the beginning of the month [9][13] 2. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - In July, urea production device maintenance increased, and the operating rate first decreased and then increased. The natural - gas - based urea operating rate also showed the same trend. Some enterprises such as Xinjiang Xinji Energy have production capacity commissioning plans. The daily average output of urea in July was still higher than the historical value, and the monthly output was estimated to be 608.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.6 tons [16][20] 3. Urea Cost - Profit Analysis - In July, the market price of anthracite stopped falling and rose. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 8.94%, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 percentage points. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of gas - based urea was - 7.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98 percentage points [24] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - From January to June 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 3593 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 425 tons. In July, the production - sales ratio of urea was between 95.3% - 96.6%. The national grain sown area increased in 2024, and with the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for fertilizers for summer crops such as corn and rice was released [26][29] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In July, the operating rate of compound fertilizer increased continuously from the bottom, and the estimated monthly output was 328 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34 tons. The average operating rate of melamine enterprises in July was 61.37%, and it is expected to remain above 60% in August [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to June 2025, the total export of fertilizers in China was 1712.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 452 tons. The export volume of urea was 7.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons [39] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of July, the enterprise inventory of urea was 75.7 tons, a decrease of 11.6 tons from the beginning of the month. The port inventory was 52 tons, close to the export peak level in September 2023. The registered warehouse receipts were 3373, equivalent to 6.746 tons of urea [41][44] 8. Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Urea production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, and the supply is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, with the daily average output at 20 - 21 tons. Demand: Agricultural demand is scattered after the concentrated fertilization period; industrial demand from compound fertilizers is increasing, and other industrial demands fluctuate slightly; export demand is expected to be concentrated from July to August. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the current market, with the easing of overseas risk factors, the A - share market may continue to rise in the shock center in August. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the delay of the Fed's interest - rate cut and tariff negotiation disturbances. If external risks ease and the semi - annual report performance verification exceeds expectations, technology growth (AI, robots) and high - dividend (banks, power) sectors may become the main lines of capital switching. IH is for configuration, and IM is for offensive [2][3] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomics - **CPI**: In a certain month, due to the continuous effectiveness of policies to expand domestic demand and promote consumption, the year - on - year CPI turned from a decline to a 0.1% increase. The food item decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month. The non - food item increased by 0.1% year - on - year, showing a situation of "rising industrial products and stable service growth" [7] - **PPI**: The year - on - year decline of PPI widened to 3.6% in a certain month. Externally, the year - on - year price of exported goods increased by 0.5%, ending a two - year decline. Domestically, the year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment slowed down to - 11.2%, and the price of production materials was flat month - on - month. Necessities such as clothing and daily necessities showed signs of stabilization [11] - **Export**: In a certain month, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year (in US dollars), with the growth rate further increasing compared to the previous month. There were two trends in structural characteristics: the "rush to export" effect continued to strengthen, and the export to free - trade agreement partners mainly in ASEAN reached a growth rate of 16.92%; the Sino - US tariff agreement was implemented, and the export of some commodities continued to recover [16] - **Consumption and Real Estate**: In a certain month, the growth rate of social retail sales decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 4.8%, still showing robustness. The decline was mainly affected by the drop in catering revenue, the pre - placement of shopping festivals, and the post - holiday consumption decline. The real estate market remained sluggish, and key indicators such as investment and sales grew weakly [19] - **Manufacturing**: In a certain month, the manufacturing PMI rebounded by 0.2 percentage points to 49.7%, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. Sub - indicators showed structural differentiation: the production index returned to the expansion range, the new export orders increased slightly but were still below the boom - bust line; the raw material inventory index increased slightly for several consecutive months, indicating a marginal increase in enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory. In terms of prices, the gap between the purchase price index and the ex - factory price index remained the same, indicating that the cost pressure on mid - and downstream enterprises remained [22] - **Policy**: The central bank continued the "dual - track" regulatory thinking in a certain month, maintaining the historical low of the 1 - year LPR and guiding commercial banks to lower the upper limit of deposit interest rates. The fiscal policy continued the orientation of "increasing intensity and efficiency", with the tax revenue decline narrowing and the proportion of people's livelihood expenditure exceeding 70%. Multiple policies were introduced to stimulate domestic demand and deepen capital market reform [26] 3.2 Market Review - **Overall Market**: In a certain month, A - shares generally rose. At the end of the month, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at a certain point, up by a certain percentage compared to the end of the previous month. The ChiNext Index and the CSI 2000 Index had particularly prominent increases. The technology growth and cycle sectors continued to attract funds, and the large - consumption industry chain maintained a stable performance [31] - **Industry Performance**: As of a certain date in a certain month, among the Shenwan primary industries, most industries rose, with the steel industry leading with an 18.3% increase, followed by building materials and pharmaceutical biology. There were also several industries with an increase of more than 5%, showing the diversity of market hotspots [32] - **Market Style**: In a certain month, A - share market styles, scales, and performance sectors showed differential increases. In terms of style, except for the consumption style index, other styles rose, with the financial style index leading with an 8.92% increase. In terms of scale, large, medium, and small - cap indexes all rose, with the mid - cap index standing out. In terms of performance, loss - making stocks, micro - profit stocks, and high - performance stocks all rose, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [35] - **Liquidity**: From a certain period in a certain month, the average daily trading volume of the A - share market reached a certain amount, a certain percentage increase compared to the previous month. The newly established equity - biased fund shares decreased compared to the previous month but still remained at a high level, indicating strong support from incremental funds [42] - **Market Sentiment**: As of a certain date in a certain month, the average monthly turnover rate of major indexes continued to rise. The turnover rate of the STAR 50 Index increased by more than a certain percentage month - on - month, and the ChiNext Index increased by nearly a certain percentage. At the end of the month, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased compared to the previous month and the same period last year, and the margin trading buying amount also increased significantly [45][49] 3.3 Private - Fund Strategies - **Basis Analysis**: In a certain month, the basis of small - and medium - cap indexes showed significant phased characteristics. In the first half of the month, the basis fluctuated within a narrow range, and in the second half, as the market style switched to large - cap blue - chips, the basis widened rapidly. Near the end of the month, the basis narrowed slightly [53] - **Performance Review of Private - Fund Sub - Strategies**: In a certain month, among private - fund strategies, the macro strategy and the stock long - only strategy had single - month returns of a certain percentage and a certain percentage respectively. From the beginning of the year to the end of a certain month, the stock market neutral strategy led with a certain percentage of cumulative return, followed by the macro strategy [56] - **Index - Enhancement Strategy**: In a certain month, the excess returns of the CSI 300 index - enhancement, CSI 500 index - enhancement, and CSI 1000 index - enhancement showed a relatively differentiated structure. From the beginning of the year to June, the cumulative excess returns of the three reached a certain percentage, a certain percentage, and a certain percentage respectively, with the small - and medium - cap index - enhancement strategies leading [59] - **Neutral Strategy**: In the first half of the year, the market turnover rate and trading volume first increased and then decreased, remaining at a high level. Volatility increased briefly in a certain month due to tariff events but decreased compared to the second half of last year. The average annualized basis of IC and IM put pressure on the neutral strategy, but the strong performance of small - cap stocks still drove the strategy to achieve outstanding results [63] 3.4后市展望 - In a certain month, the A - share market is expected to maintain a dynamic balance between value and growth. High - dividend assets such as coal and banks still have defensive advantages, while the technology growth sector is waiting for two key catalysts: the Fed's interest - rate cut and the continuous easing of Sino - US tariffs. If these two variables are realized in the second half of the month, the market style may turn to growth; otherwise, the dumbbell strategy will continue [66]

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...