Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures are recommended to buy on dips, and treasury bonds are expected to move sideways [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Steel rebar is advised to wait and see, iron ore and coking coal & coke are expected to move sideways [1][8][9] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is for range trading or waiting and seeing, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips after a pullback, nickel is for waiting and seeing or shorting on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][11][16][18] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to move sideways, polyolefins are for wide - range sideways movement, and soda ash is for shorting the 09 contract and going long on the 05 contract [1][20][23][26] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are for sideways adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][37][38] - **Agricultural and Livestock**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is for wide - range sideways movement, soybean meal is for limited upside, and oils are expected to move sideways with an upward bias [1][40][43][45] Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as economic data, policies, and international events. For example, the expectation of interest rate cuts in September has a positive impact on the index, and the supply - demand relationship and cost factors in each industry determine the price trends of different commodities [6][21][41] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Due to factors like the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the expectation of a September interest rate cut, and positive policies in China, the index is expected to be strong in the medium - term. Although it may oscillate in the short - term, it is still a good opportunity to go long on pullbacks [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market has shown some characteristics of weak assets being hard to rise and easy to fall. Although the current yield has attracted some attention, the market adjustment may not be fully cleared, and attention should be paid to the market disturbance caused by the unstable liabilities of trading institutions [6] Black Building Materials - **Steel Rebar**: The futures price oscillated upward on Tuesday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the short - term, and the price is expected to move sideways. Attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption of coking coal production [8] - **Iron Ore**: The futures price was strong on Tuesday. Although there is an expectation of a decline in hot metal demand, considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the iron ore futures are expected to move sideways with an upward bias and can be used as a long leg when shorting other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal market is short - term sideways with an upward bias but the marginal support is weakening. The coke market is stable with an upward bias, but the short - term fluctuation risk is increasing. Attention should be paid to relevant policies and inventory changes [9] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to positive economic data in China, the expectation of interest rate cuts, and low inventory, copper prices are supported at high levels. However, it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak, so it is expected to move sideways in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11] - **Aluminum**: Affected by factors such as the decrease in bauxite supply and the increase in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the market is expected to move sideways in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [13] - **Nickel**: In the medium - to - long - term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. The mine support is weakening, and the price is expected to move sideways. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [16] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [17] - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by factors such as the new US tariff, employment data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts, precious metal prices are expected to have support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE silver 10 contract being 8700 - 9500 and the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [18] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support may weaken. It is expected to move sideways in the range of 4900 - 5100 for the 09 contract [20][21] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate is slowing down. The 09 contract is expected to move sideways in the range of 2400 - 2550, and it is recommended to go long on dips for the peak - season contracts [23] - **Styrene**: The cost - profit situation, supply, and demand are all facing challenges. The macro - environment is relatively warm, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 7100 - 7400 [26] - **Rubber**: Due to the strengthening of raw material price expectations and cost support, and the continuous decline in inventory, the rubber price is expected to be strong in the short - term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the demand for compound fertilizers is increasing. The price is expected to be supported at the bottom and restricted at the top, and it is recommended to conduct range trading [31] - **Methanol**: The supply is increasing slightly, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is stable, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term affected by the overall industrial product price fluctuations [32] - **Polyolefins**: In the traditional off - season, the supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to move sideways in the short - term, with the L2509 contract in the range of 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract in the range of 6900 - 7200 [33][34] - **Soda Ash**: The spot market is weak, the supply is increasing, and it is recommended to short the 09 contract and go long on the 05 contract [36] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply and demand are expected to increase in the new season. The downstream consumption is light, but the spot is tight. The price is expected to move sideways [37] - **Apples**: Based on low inventory and growth factors, apples are expected to maintain a high - level sideways movement. Attention should be paid to the quality and price trends of early - maturing apples [38] - **Jujubes**: With the improvement of the trading atmosphere in the sales area and the increase in good - quality prices, jujubes are expected to rise in the short - term [38] Agricultural and Livestock - **Pigs**: In the short - term, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to bottom out and oscillate. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trading strategies [40][41] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has a rebound expectation, but the 09 contract basis is at a low level, and the rebound space is limited. Different contracts in the fourth quarter have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to the elimination situation [42] - **Corn**: The short - term supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price is expected to move sideways in the range of 2250 - 2300. Attention should be paid to policies and substitute products [43][44] - **Soybean Meal**: In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long - term, due to cost increases and phased supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to go long on dips for relevant contracts [45][47] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy, the price is expected to move sideways with an upward bias. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing the rise and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of rapeseed oil [48][54]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6] - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar - temporary observation; Iron ore - fluctuate; Coking coal and coke - fluctuate [1][6] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper - range trading or observation; Aluminum - buy on dips after a pullback; Nickel - observe or short on rallies; Tin - range trading; Gold - range trading; Silver - range trading [1][6] - **Energy Chemicals**: PVC - fluctuate; Soda ash - short 09 and long 05 arbitrage; Caustic soda - fluctuate; Styrene - fluctuate; Rubber - fluctuate; Urea - fluctuate; Methanol - fluctuate; Polyolefins - wide - range fluctuation [1][22] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn - fluctuate and adjust; Apples - fluctuate strongly; Jujubes - fluctuate strongly [1][39] - **Agricultural Livestock**: Hogs - short on rallies; Eggs - short on rallies; Corn - wide - range fluctuation; Soybean meal - range fluctuation; Oils - fluctuate strongly [1][42] Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by multiple factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events. Index futures have a mid - term upward trend despite short - term fluctuations. Treasury bonds are affected by risk asset prices. Various commodities in different sectors show different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals and macro - environment [6][8][10] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: The strengthening of the index is due to positive policies, capital inflows, and event catalysts. Short - term may fluctuate at high points, but the mid - term trend is upward. Buying on dips is recommended [6] - **Treasury Bonds**: The downward space of bond yields is limited. Attention should be paid to the movement of risk asset prices, as a sharp rise in risk assets may lead to a break - out of the current yield range [6] Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The price fluctuated upward on Monday. The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season. The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and static valuation is neutral. Observation or short - term trading is recommended [8] - **Iron Ore**: The price was strong on Monday. Considering the possible macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter and the expected decline in iron - water demand, the iron ore market is expected to fluctuate strongly. It can be used as a long - leg in the short - position allocation of other black varieties [8] - **Coking Coal**: The market may face a game of weak supply and demand in the short term. Attention should be paid to coal mine复产 progress, steel - coke price increase, and import coal customs clearance [10] - **Coke**: The supply is tight, and the demand from steel mills is strong. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Key factors include raw material price fluctuations, price increase implementation, and steel mill inventory replenishment [10] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price is supported at a high level due to positive domestic economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory. However, it is in the off - season, and the short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [13] - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season, and the demand is in the off - season. Buying on dips in August is recommended [15] - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the consumption growth is limited. It is recommended to short moderately on rallies, with the main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 yuan/ton [18] - **Tin**: The supply - demand gap of tin ore is improving. It is recommended to conduct range trading, with the reference range of the SHFE tin 09 contract being 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19] - **Silver and Gold**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and employment data, the prices are expected to fluctuate. Buying on dips is recommended for gold, with the reference range of the SHFE gold 10 contract being 770 - 820 [20][21] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 09 contract focusing on the range of 4900 - 5100 [23] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply is abundant, and the demand has rigid support but the growth rate slows down. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550, and going long on dips for the peak - season contract is recommended [25] - **Styrene**: The fundamental benefits are limited, and the macro - environment is warm. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [28] - **Rubber**: The cost support is strengthening, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to run strongly in the short term, with the reference range of 15200 - 15600 [30] - **Urea**: The supply is decreasing, the demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, and other industrial demands are stable. Range operation is recommended, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1800 - 1830 [33] - **Methanol**: The supply increases slightly, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is stable, and the traditional demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to fluctuate affected by the overall industrial product prices [34] - **Polyolefins**: In the off - season, the supply increases, the demand is weak, and the inventory accumulates. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L2509 contract focusing on 7200 - 7500 and the PP2509 contract on 6900 - 7200 [35] - **Soda Ash**: The supply increases, the inventory accumulates, and the spot price may decline slightly. It is recommended to short 09 and long 05 for arbitrage [38] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton production and consumption are expected to increase in the 2025/26 season, and the inventory will also increase. The downstream consumption is light, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [39] - **Apples**: The early - maturing fruit price is weak, and the inventory fruit price is stable. Based on low inventory and growth factors, the price is expected to maintain a high - level fluctuation [40] - **Jujubes**: The market trading atmosphere is improving, and the price of high - quality products is strong. The price is expected to rise in the short term [40] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: The short - term supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium term, there may be a phased rebound, but the long - term supply pressure remains. Different contracts have different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [43] - **Eggs**: The current spot price has stopped rising and started to decline. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and attention should be paid to factors such as hen culling and cold - storage egg release [44] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the 09 contract basis is low. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral long - positions, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [46] - **Soybean Meal**: The short - term price increase is limited. Different contracts have different trading strategies, and spot enterprises are recommended to build long - positions [48] - **Oils**: Affected by factors such as the MPOB report and production - export data, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly. Caution is recommended when chasing the rise, and attention can be paid to the rapeseed oil 11 - 01 reverse - arbitrage strategy [50][54]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - The pig market faces significant supply pressure, with high piglet production and large - scale enterprise plans to increase supply. In the short - term, the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand, and prices are expected to continue to bottom out. In the medium - term, there may be a phased rebound, but the increase is limited. In the long - term, prices will be under pressure until April next year [4][54]. - The egg market has sufficient supply, which suppresses price increases. Although there is an expected increase in demand in the short - term, the abundant supply will limit price increases. In the long - term, the high supply situation may be difficult to reverse, but if the Mid - Autumn Festival performance is poor, it may increase elimination and relieve future supply pressure [6][87]. - The corn market is in a state of intensified supply - demand game, with short - term supply and demand relatively balanced and prices having limited upward and downward space. In the long - term, new - season corn listing and cost reduction may lead to a downward shift in the price center, but attention should be paid to weather conditions in production areas [7][108]. Summary by Variety Pig 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the national spot price was 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.61 yuan/kg from last week; the Henan pig price was 13.63 yuan/kg, down 0.58 yuan/kg; the 2511 contract closed at 14,180 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton; the 11 - contract basis was - 550 yuan/ton, down 910 yuan/ton [4][54]. 2. Supply - The inventory of breeding sows increased from May to November 2024, decreased slightly from December 2024, and increased again from May to June 2025, remaining at the upper limit of the equilibrium range. With improved production performance, the pressure of pig slaughter before April next year is still high. Supply will increase in the third and fourth quarters, with a limited increase in August and a significant increase after September [4][54]. 3. Demand - Weekly slaughter rates and volumes increased slightly, but seasonal consumption was weak. Fresh - sales rates decreased slightly, and frozen - product inventory increased slightly. Overall consumption was poor, but there was potential consumption elasticity due to low frozen - product inventory [4][54]. 4. Cost - Weekly piglet and binary breeding sow prices decreased, self - breeding and self - raising profits declined, and purchased - piglet profits had a larger loss. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly. The national pig - grain ratio was 6.05:1 as of August 1, approaching the 6:1 warning level [4][54]. 5. Strategy - The 09 contract is restricted by weak reality and delivery pressure, with a resistance level of 14,000 - 14,200. Contracts 11 and 01 are stronger but still face supply pressure, with resistance levels of 14,200 - 14,500 and 14,500 - 14,700 respectively. Consider shorting on rebounds and focus on the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [4][54]. Egg 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan/jin, down 0.24 yuan/jin; the average price in the main selling areas was 2.94 yuan/jin, down 0.25 yuan/jin. The 2509 contract closed at 3,391 yuan/500 kg, down 93 yuan/500 kg, and the basis was - 771 yuan/500 kg, down 287 yuan/500 kg [6][87]. 2. Supply - Newly - laid hens in August correspond to high - volume replenishment in April 2025. Although some old hens were culled due to price drops, the supply is still abundant due to cold - storage eggs. In the long - term, high replenishment from May to July 2025 means high supply from September to November 2025 [6][87]. 3. Demand - Current low prices stimulate downstream procurement. With Mid - Autumn Festival and school - opening preparations in mid - to - late August, demand is expected to increase seasonally [6][87]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract has limited upside potential due to a low - level basis. Contracts 10 and 11 in the fourth quarter should be shorted on rebounds. If the elimination process accelerates, there may be long opportunities for contracts 12 and 01 [6][87]. Corn 1. Week - on - Week Data - As of August 8, the FOB price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the 2509 contract closed at 2,255 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the basis was 45 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton [7][108]. 2. Supply - Low prices increased traders' willingness to sell, and reserve rotations added to the market supply. Northeast grain supplemented the North China market, and a small amount of spring corn was listed in the South. Corn imports decreased in June, and overall market supply was sufficient [7][108]. 3. Demand - Increased livestock and poultry inventories drove feed demand, but the high price difference between corn and wheat led to more wheat purchases, squeezing corn demand. Deep - processing enterprises were in the red, with low operating rates and limited incremental demand [7][108]. 4. Strategy - The 09 contract will oscillate in the range of 2,250 - 2,300 yuan/ton. Consider the 11 - 1 reverse arbitrage [7][108].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economic data is positive, and there are hopes of a Fed rate cut, leading to a generally strong and volatile trend in non - ferrous metals [1][2] - Different non - ferrous metals have different market performances. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, aluminum is in an upward trend with short - term volatility, and zinc has limited upward momentum [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Main Variety Views Copper - China's positive economic data, Fed rate - cut expectations, and low inventory provide high - level support for copper prices, but it is in the off - season, and short - term upward driving force is insufficient. It is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the range of 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Suggested operations are range trading or waiting and seeing [2] Aluminum - The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, supporting ore prices. Alumina production capacity and inventory are both increasing. Aluminum prices are in an upward trend but with short - term volatility. It is recommended to go long on dips in August [2] Zinc - Zinc concentrate supply is loose, and domestic demand is weak in the off - season. Zinc prices are expected to have limited upward momentum, with the main contract operating in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. Suggested operation is range trading [2] Lead - LME and Comex lead inventories have decreased, and domestic supply and demand are basically balanced. Lead prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and it is recommended to go long on dips in the range of 16,500 - 17,200 yuan/ton [2] Nickel - In the medium and long term, the nickel industry has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to hold short positions moderately on rallies, with the main contract operating in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton. Stainless steel is recommended for range trading in the range of 12,600 - 13,100 yuan/ton [3] Tin - In the off - season, demand is weak, and prices are volatile. Tin ore supply improvement is limited, and it is recommended for range trading, with the reference range for the Shanghai Tin 09 contract being 255,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton [3] Industrial Silicon - Production and inventory data show mixed trends. It is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see. Polysilicon has high risks, and it is also recommended to wait and see [3] Carbonate Lithium - Due to mine - end production disruptions, prices are strong. It is expected that short - term prices will be supported, and it is recommended for cautious trading [3] Non - ferrous Metal Inventory - Different non - ferrous metals have different inventory trends. For example, copper's global inventory has increased week - on - week, while tin's global inventory has decreased week - on - week [7] Macro - economic Data - China's July service industry PMI continued to expand, and exports increased year - on - year. The US service industry PMI was close to stagnation in July [9][11][14] Market Trends and Key Data Tracking - Each non - ferrous metal has corresponding price trend charts and key data tracking, such as copper's LME copper (spot/three - month) premium and discount, Shanghai copper's inter - period spread curve, etc. [30][31]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the black industry is to maintain a volatile pattern, with trading mainly within a range [1]. - For rebar, the investment strategy is short - term trading [4][6]. - For coking coal and coke (double - coking), the strategy is neutral and wait - and - see [28]. - For iron ore, the investment strategy is to expect a volatile and upward - trending market [70]. Core Viewpoints - The rebar market is expected to maintain a short - term volatile pattern. Although the raw material prices of coking coal and coke have risen, they have not driven up steel prices. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated. The static valuation of rebar futures is neutral, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and industrial - end implementation [6]. - The coking coal market has supply - side disturbances and cautious demand - side sentiment, and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited [31]. - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and upward - trending. Although there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand, considering potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for iron ore [71]. Summary by Directory Rebar Main Points - **Market Situation**: Last week, the prices of coking coal futures rose significantly, but rebar prices fluctuated narrowly. The latest rebar apparent demand increased by 7.38 tons week - on - week, production increased by 10.12 tons, and inventory increased by 10.39 tons. The supply - demand contradiction in the off - season is not obvious, and the supply - demand relationship remains relatively balanced, but the inventory accumulation speed has slightly accelerated [6]. - **Valuation**: As of last Friday's close, the rebar futures price was lower than the EAF flat - rate electricity cost and higher than the EAF off - peak electricity cost, with a neutral static valuation [24]. - **Driving Factors**: On the macro - level, the overly optimistic expectations have cooled down, and attention should be paid to the changes in Sino - US tariff policies. On the industrial - level, the actual supply - demand is balanced, and attention should be paid to the implementation of crude steel production restrictions and the resumption progress of coking coal mines [6]. Trading Strategy - Short - term trading, with RB2510 focusing on the range of [3100 - 3300] [7]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Domestic main production areas are affected by frequent accidents, underground production disturbances, and the implementation of the "276 - working - day" policy, resulting in continuous supply - side disturbances and a tight overall supply pattern. The customs clearance volume at Mongolian ports is gradually recovering, but the downstream's receiving sentiment is cautious [31]. - **Demand**: The strengthening of the futures price has slightly boosted the sentiment in the spot market, but the operations of downstream coking and steel enterprises and intermediate trading links are still cautious. The online auctions of coal mines show differentiation, with both rises and falls. Most coal mines have no obvious inventory pressure, and the pit - mouth quotations remain stable overall [31]. - **Outlook**: The coking coal market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the "276" policy in domestic coal mines, the continuity of Mongolian coal customs clearance, and the changes in the replenishment rhythm of coking and steel enterprises [31]. Coke - **Supply**: After five rounds of price increases for coke, the profitability of mainstream coking enterprises has marginally improved, driving a slight increase in the start - up rhythm. However, due to the continuous rise in raw material coal prices, the cost pressure of some coking enterprises has not been fully alleviated, and there is a slight production - restriction phenomenon. The overall start - up remains stable [31]. - **Demand**: With the marginal improvement in coke arrivals, the inventory pressure of steel mills has slightly eased, and the replenishment is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The molten iron production remains high and volatile, providing rigid support for coke, but some steel mills may plan maintenance due to profit considerations, and the procurement rhythm is cautious [31]. - **Cost**: The price of coking coal remains high and volatile, with the increase of some coal types narrowing and the trading enthusiasm cooling down, but the overall cost center is still at a relatively high level, providing certain support for the coke price [31]. - **Outlook**: The coke market has a game between steel and coking enterprises, with multiple long and short factors intertwined, and the marginal improvement space is limited. Attention should be paid to the price trend of coking coal, the profit changes of steel mills, and policy dynamics [31]. Trading Strategy - Neutral and wait - and - see [31]. Iron Ore Main Points - **Market Review**: Last week, the iron ore futures market first rose and then fell, with the weekly line closing in the red and overall small fluctuations. After the macro - sentiment at the beginning of the month subsided, commodities generally showed a correction, but the correction range of the black series was small due to factors such as military - parade production restrictions and coking coal disturbances [71]. - **Supply**: Global iron ore shipments are gradually recovering after the end - of - fiscal - year rush of overseas mines, but the current shipment volume has slightly declined. The arrivals continue to increase due to the previous shipment rush, and the port inventory has further decreased. Domestic northern mines have seen a slight decline in production due to rainfall [71]. - **Demand**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to rise to a new high this year. Large blast furnaces are under maintenance, and the molten iron production has slightly decreased. Steel mills have replenished their inventories, but the inventory level is still lower than the same - period level [71]. - **Outlook**: The market is starting to price in events such as military - parade production restrictions, crude steel production restrictions, and blast furnace maintenance, which means there are expectations of a decline in molten iron demand. However, considering the many potential macro - positive factors in the fourth quarter, the decline in molten iron will not be significant, which is beneficial for the iron ore market. It is expected that the iron ore futures market will be volatile and upward - trending [71]. Trading Strategy - Consider using iron ore as the long - leg when shorting other black - series varieties, and focus on the 770 support level for the 09 contract [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Plastic: There is an expectation of a rebound in downstream开工, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Polyethylene downstream is still in the traditional off - season, with no obvious boost in terminal demand. Although the overall downstream开工 rate has increased, the continuous restocking strength is insufficient. The market's expectation of anti - involution policies will still support the market. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 7200 - 7500 [5][6]. - PP: The pressure on the disk trend is relatively large, and it will fluctuate in the short term. During the off - season of demand, the downstream开工 rate remains stable. The upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" and the recent takeaway market competition will support downstream demand to some extent. However, there are many new production capacities on the supply side, and the disk pressure is still expected to be large. It is recommended to short on rallies, with the 2509 contract expected to fluctuate in the range of 6900 - 7200 [7][8]. Summary by Directory Plastic Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 7290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 27 yuan/ton from last week. The average price of LDPE was 9533.33 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.18%. The average price of HDPE was 7987.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7483.53 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. The LLDPE South China basis was 185.29 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.11%. The 6 - 9 month spread was 70 yuan/ton (+25), with the basis narrowing and the month spread widening [6]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PE was - 352 yuan/ton, an increase of 138 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PE was 989 yuan/ton, a decrease of 206 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of polyethylene production in China this week was 84.08%, an increase of 2.99 percentage points from last week. The weekly polyethylene output was 66.02 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. The maintenance loss this week was 7.87 tons, a decrease of 1.28 tons from last week [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of agricultural film was 13.07%, an increase of 0.44% from last week. The operating rate of PE packaging film was 49.30%, an increase of 0.60% from last week. The operating rate of PE pipes was 29.00%, an increase of 0.33% from last week [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 57.57 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 2.09% [6]. PP Market Changes - On August 8, the closing price of the polypropylene 2509 contract was 7062 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton from last week. The spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 7246.67 yuan/ton (-8.33), a month - on - month decrease of 0.11%. The PP basis was 185 yuan/ton (-36), with the basis narrowing. The 5 - 9 month spread was 24 yuan/ton (-2), with the month spread narrowing [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Cost and Profit**: WTI crude oil closed at 63.35 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.91 US dollars/barrel from last week. Brent crude oil closed at 66.32 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 3.20 US dollars/barrel from last week. The price of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1060 yuan/ton (+10). The profit of oil - based PP was - 343.52 yuan/ton, an increase of 129.54 yuan/ton from last week. The profit of coal - based PP was 519.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 165.41 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Supply**: The operating rate of PP petrochemical enterprises in China this week was 77.31%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from last week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 77.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%. The weekly output of PP powder reached 6.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.91% [8]. - **Demand**: The average downstream operating rate this week was 48.90% (+0.50%). The operating rate of plastic weaving was 41.10% (-0%), the operating rate of BOPP was 60.80% (+0%), the operating rate of injection molding was 56.73% (+0%), and the operating rate of pipes was 36.23% (+0.06%) [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 58.71 tons (+3.95%); the inventory of the two major oil companies increased by 5.18% month - on - month; the inventory of traders increased by 8.08% month - on - month; the port inventory decreased by 2.08% month - on - month [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The price of bauxite is supported by the rainy season in Guinea and the uncertainty of a large mine's复产. The operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, while the downstream demand of aluminum is affected by the off - season and the decline of PV installation rush. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but still faces inventory accumulation pressure, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint - **Fundamental Analysis**: The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea affects bauxite mining and transportation, and the resumption of a large mine encounters variables. The operating capacity of alumina increases by 700,000 tons to 95.35 million tons, and the national alumina inventory increases by 42,000 tons to 3.285 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases by 30,000 tons to 44.259 million tons. The domestic downstream processing enterprise's operating rate rises by 0.1% to 58.7%, but shows a weakening trend due to the off - season and PV factors. The aluminum ingot inventory accumulates, and the aluminum rod inventory decreases. The market for recycled cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. The aluminum price rebounds at the support level but is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [3]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see; for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum alloy, they are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips in August [4]. 2. Macro - economic Indicators No text summary information provided, only some charts about US Treasury yields, US dollar index, and RMB exchange rate are presented [6][7]. 3. Bauxite - The supply of domestic bauxite is tightening, and the prices in Shanxi and Henan remain stable due to strengthened safety supervision and environmental inspections, as well as frequent rainfall. The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk bauxite remains stable at $74 per dry ton, and the bauxite shipping volume shows a downward trend due to the rainy season and the uncertainty of a large mine's resumption [10]. 4. Alumina - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of alumina is 113.02 million tons, with a weekly increase of 100,000 tons; the operating capacity is 95.35 million tons, with a weekly increase of 700,000 tons, and the operating rate is 84.4%. The domestic spot weighted price is 3,289.3 yuan per ton, with a weekly increase of 10.6 yuan per ton. The national alumina inventory is 3.285 million tons, with a weekly increase of 42,000 tons. Newly invested capacities in Shandong, Guangxi, and the north are gradually contributing to production. Some alumina enterprises are under maintenance [14]. 5. Alumina Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about alumina basis, inventory, north - south price difference, and shipping volume are presented [16][17][18][19]. 6. Electrolytic Aluminum - As of last Friday, the built - in capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 45.232 million tons, remaining unchanged weekly; the operating capacity is 44.259 million tons, with a weekly increase of 30,000 tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increases steadily, with the remaining small - scale capacity in Guizhou Anshun resuming production, the replacement capacity of Yunnan Aluminum Yixin being put into production, and the technical transformation project of Baise Yinhai gradually resuming power - on production [23]. 7. Electrolytic Aluminum Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod processing fees, Shanghai aluminum forward curve,动力煤 prices, and aluminum import profit are presented [25]. 8. Inventory No text summary information provided, only some charts about aluminum rod, aluminum ingot, SHFE aluminum futures, and LME aluminum inventories are presented [27][28][29][30]. 9. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum alloy enterprises remains stable at 53.1% weekly. The market is in the off - season, and downstream enterprises in the southwest and south China are on high - temperature holidays. Although the orders of large sample factories are relatively stable, the overall operating rate continues to decline [33]. 10. Cast Aluminum Alloy Important High - frequency Data No text summary information provided, only some charts about cast aluminum alloy prices, forward curve, price difference, and import profit are presented [35][37][38][39]. 11. Downstream开工 - **Aluminum Profiles**: The operating rate of leading aluminum profile enterprises decreases by 0.5% to 49.5% weekly. Industrial profiles, especially automotive and PV profiles, show a weakening trend, and construction profiles have low order volumes due to weak terminal demand [43]. - **Aluminum Plates and Strips**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises increases by 0.8% to 64% weekly. Some downstream industries such as automotive, electronics 3C, and construction start to stock up for the peak season, but the industry has insufficient expectations for the peak - season stocking to boost consumption in August [43]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of domestic leading cable enterprises remains stable at 61.8% weekly. Some grid orders need to be delivered, but some aluminum alloy cable orders are still average. There are significant differences in the shipment expectations of enterprises in August, and the traditional peak - season characteristics have not fully emerged [46]. - **Primary Aluminum Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises increases by 1% to 55.6% weekly. In the context of a significant decline in the output of primary aluminum processing sectors such as aluminum rods and aluminum poles, the primary aluminum alloy sector undertakes the task of aluminum - water alloying to some extent. The industry is in a weak and stable pattern due to weak demand in the off - season and the impact of high - temperature holidays [46].

Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the glass industry. Core Viewpoints - The glass market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the medium to long term, so it is considered bearish. However, considering the possible improvement in sales in Hebei and the relatively strong macro - expectations, short - term long positions can be tried for the 01 contract [3]. - The 09 contract has limited upside and downside space, and it is recommended that short positions stop profit and exit [3]. Summary by Directory 01 Investment Strategy - The investment strategy is to try short - term long positions. The 01 contract should pay attention to the support level of 1160 - 1170 and try short - term long positions for one week [2][3]. 02 & 03 Market Review - **Price Changes**: As of August 8, the 5mm float glass market price in North China was 1,180 yuan/ton (-60), in Central China was 1,190 yuan/ton (-30), and in East China was 1,270 yuan/ton (-40). The glass 09 contract closed at 1063 yuan/ton last Friday, down 39 for the week [10]. - **Spread Changes**: As of August 8, the difference between soda ash and glass futures prices was 269 yuan/ton (+115). The basis of the glass 09 contract last Friday was 77 yuan/ton (-21), and the 09 - 01 spread was - 133 yuan/ton (-11) [12][15]. 04 Profit - **Natural Gas Process**: The cost was 1,592 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was - 322 yuan/ton (-37). - **Coal - Gas Process**: The cost was 1,180 yuan/ton (+9), and the gross profit was 0 yuan/ton (-69). - **Petroleum Coke Process**: The cost was 1,106 yuan/ton (-3), and the gross profit was 84 yuan/ton (-27) [16][20]. 05 Supply - The daily melting volume of glass last Friday was 158,355 tons/day (+600), with 223 production lines in operation. The No. 1 float line of Zhejiang Futele restarted with a daily melting volume of 600T/D [22]. 06 Inventory - As of August 8, the national inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers was 6,184.7 million weight boxes (+234.8). Inventories in North China, Central China, East China, South China, and Southwest China all increased, and the inventories in Shahe and Hubei factories also rose [26][32]. 07 Deep - processing - On August 4, the comprehensive sales - to - production ratio of float glass was 87% (+7%). On August 7, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 47.1% (+2.2%). At the beginning of August, the order days of glass deep - processing were 9.55 days (+0.25) [33]. 08 & 09 Demand - **Automobile**: In June, China's automobile production was 2.794 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 145,000 and year - on - year increase of 287,000), and sales were 2.904 million vehicles (month - on - month increase of 218,000 and year - on - year increase of 352,000). In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles was 987,000, with a penetration rate of 54% [45]. - **Real Estate**: In June, China's real estate completion area was 41.8147 million square meters (-2% year - on - year), new construction area was 71.8071 million square meters (-9%), construction area was 83.0189 million square meters (+5%), and commercial housing sales area was 105.354 million square meters (-7%). The real estate development investment in June was 1.042416 trillion yuan (-12% year - on - year) [53]. 10 Soda Ash Market - **Price**: As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1,400 yuan/ton (0), in East China was 1,350 yuan/ton (-25), in Central China was 1,325 yuan/ton (-50), and in South China was 1,500 yuan/ton (0). The soda ash 2509 contract closed at 1,332 yuan/ton last Friday (+76) [55][57]. - **Basis**: The basis of the soda ash Central China 09 contract last Friday was 76 yuan/ton (-43) [59]. 11 & 12 & 13 Cost - end Soda Ash - **Profit**: As of last Friday, the cost of the ammonia - alkali method was 1,305 yuan/ton (+5), with a gross profit of 56 yuan/ton (-1); the cost of the joint - alkali method was 1,790 yuan/ton (-5), with a gross profit of 69 yuan/ton (-38) [63][65]. - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the domestic soda ash production was 744,600 tons (week - on - week increase of 44,800), including 423,400 tons of heavy soda ash (week - on - week increase of 24,700) and 321,200 tons of light soda ash (week - on - week increase of 20,100). The inventory was 1.8651 million tons (week - on - week increase of 69,300). The exchange soda ash warehouse receipts last weekend were 7,715 (+4,925) [72][78]. - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly apparent demand for heavy soda ash was 378,700 tons (week - on - week decrease of 39,600). The sales - to - production ratio of soda ash last week was 90.69% (week - on - week decrease of 19.14%). The soda ash inventory days of sample float glass factories in July were 25.8 days [86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Index futures and government bonds are expected to fluctuate [1][6]. - **Black Building Materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation, iron ore and coking coal are expected to fluctuate [1][8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is suitable for range trading or observation, aluminum is recommended to buy on dips, nickel is suggested to observe or short on rallies, tin, gold, and silver are suitable for range trading [1][11]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range fluctuations; soda ash is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage [1][21]. - **Cotton Spinning Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment, apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][36]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Pigs and eggs are recommended to short on rallies, corn is expected to have range fluctuations, soybean meal is expected to have limited increases, and oils are at a high - level with an increasing risk of correction [1][40]. Core Viewpoints - The market is affected by various factors such as macro - policies, supply - demand relationships, and international events, resulting in different trends for different varieties. For example, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, China's economic data, and trade policies all have an impact on the market [6][11]. - Most varieties are in a state of fluctuating operation, and investors should choose appropriate investment strategies according to the characteristics of each variety, such as range trading, short - long arbitrage, and buying on dips [1]. Summaries by Catalog Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Affected by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and China's economic data, the stock market turnover and index continue to recover, and the index futures are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **Government Bonds**: In the short term, the market lacks a clear trend, and the yield is at a neutral level, so it is expected to fluctuate [6]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: The supply - demand is relatively balanced in the off - season, and the short - term is expected to remain volatile. Investors can observe or conduct short - term trading [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the supply is increasing, considering the possible macro - benefits in the fourth quarter, the iron ore is expected to fluctuate strongly and can be used as a long - leg in the short - other - black - varieties strategy [8][9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal supply is tight, and the coke market has mixed factors. Both are expected to fluctuate in the short term [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Supported by factors such as China's economic improvement and low inventory, but facing the pressure of inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan/ton [11]. - **Aluminum**: The bauxite supply is decreasing, but the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price falls [12][14]. - **Nickel**: With an oversupply pattern in the medium - long term, it is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the demand is in the off - season. It is suitable for range trading in the range of 25.5 - 27.5 million yuan/ton [19]. - **Gold and Silver**: Affected by the Fed's policies and trade policies, they are expected to fluctuate and are suitable for range trading [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: With high supply and uncertain export sustainability, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4900 - 5100 [21][23]. - **Caustic Soda**: With high supply and stable demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2400 - 2550 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: With limited fundamental benefits and a warm macro - environment, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7100 - 7400 [25][26]. - **Rubber**: With limited cost and supply support and weak downstream demand, it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15200 - 15600 [27][28]. - **Urea**: With supply and demand in a balanced state, it is suitable for range operation in the range of 1700 - 1830 [30]. - **Methanol**: With supply and demand stabilizing, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31][32]. - **Polyolefins**: With high supply pressure and low - season demand, they are expected to fluctuate in the range of L2509: 7200 - 7500 and PP2509: 6900 - 7200 [32][33]. - **Soda Ash**: It is recommended for a short - 09 and long - 05 arbitrage due to the weak spot market and expected inventory accumulation [33][35]. Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Affected by global supply - demand and domestic production expectations, they are expected to have a fluctuating adjustment [36][37]. - **Apples and Jujubes**: With slow sales and normal new - fruit growth, they are expected to fluctuate weakly [37][39]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply exceeds demand, and the price is under pressure. Different contracts have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [40][42]. - **Eggs**: With high supply and uncertain demand, it is recommended to short on rallies [42][44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2250 - 2350 [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: In the short term, the supply is abundant, and the price increase is limited. In the long term, there are supply gaps, and different contracts have different investment strategies [46][47]. - **Oils**: With expected negative reports and high inventory, there is an increasing risk of correction, but there are also some supporting factors. Different varieties have different trends, and investors can consider arbitrage strategies [48][55].