Investment Rating - The investment rating for Sands China Ltd. is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 21.20 [1][10]. Core Views - Sands China's gross gaming revenue (GGR) recovery is lagging behind the industry average, with the company relying heavily on hotel hardware attractiveness, which has impacted performance. The management acknowledges insufficient customer incentives [6][7]. - The renovation of The Londoner is expected to enhance customer attraction and improve business performance in the second half of 2025 [8][9]. - The company is anticipated to resume dividends, with a total payout expected to reach HKD 0.50 in 2025, following a HKD 0.25 dividend in 2024 [6][10]. Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the projected revenue is HKD 55,224 million, with a year-on-year growth of 19.33%. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be HKD 8,340 million, reflecting a significant increase of 43.87% [5]. - The adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 is reported at USD 566 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 6% [8]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at HKD 0.90, with a return on equity (ROE) of 59.35% [5]. Market and Competitive Position - Sands China's GGR for Q2 2025 was USD 1.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.3%, but below the industry average of 83% recovery to pre-pandemic levels [6][7]. - The company’s VIP revenue recovery is at 28% compared to 2019, significantly lower than the industry average of 47% [7]. - The company is positioned as a leading player in the Macau gaming sector, with expectations of valuation premium due to its market leadership [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue decline of 40.95% year-on-year for 1H25, with revenue of 1.683 billion RMB, primarily due to a substantial decrease in domestic income. The net profit also fell by 32.20% year-on-year to 161 million RMB, largely impacted by foreign exchange losses [1][6] - Despite the revenue decline, the company is expected to benefit from the domestic semiconductor industry's growth and increased investments in Southeast Asia, with new orders progressing better than anticipated. Major projects are expected to commence in the third quarter [1][6] - The gross margin improved year-on-year by 5.89 percentage points to 16.89% in 1H25, with the second quarter showing a gross margin of 20.37%, up 10.33 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H25, the company achieved a net profit margin of 9.56%, an increase of 1.23 percentage points year-on-year. The second quarter net profit margin was 9.30%, up 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company reported a net cash flow from operating activities of 877 million RMB in 1H25, a decrease of 24.3% year-on-year, attributed to new orders still being in the preparation phase [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 546 million RMB, 742 million RMB, and 780 million RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.56%. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.56 RMB, 3.48 RMB, and 3.66 RMB for the same period [5][6] - The target price has been raised to 45.24 RMB, reflecting a 17.8% increase from the previous target of 38.40 RMB, based on a 13x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026 [5][6]

Group 1: Fixed Income Market Insights - The fixed income market is experiencing increased redemption pressure, particularly in the third quarter, with long-term bonds showing greater adjustments than short-term ones [2] - The 10-year and 30-year government bonds rose by 2.9 and 3.2 basis points to 1.73% and 1.95%, respectively, while AAA credit bonds saw increases across various maturities [2] - The dominant redemption pressure is coming from wealth management products, followed by brokerages and trusts, with recent declines in credit bonds and technology innovation bonds ETFs [2] Group 2: "Anti-Overcapacity" Policy Developments - The "anti-overcapacity" policy is gaining traction, supported by projects like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station and coal industry production restrictions [3] - The policy shift indicates a deeper understanding of market dynamics, with expectations for more core industry policies to emerge, enhancing visibility for credit and inventory cycle turning points [3] - Investment strategies should focus on undervalued, high-dividend sectors such as building materials, coal, and chemicals, as well as industries showing signs of natural capacity clearance [3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Opportunities - The U.S. nuclear industry is seeing renewed interest following presidential initiatives aimed at revitalizing the sector, with significant developments in the PJM electricity market [5] - The focus on nuclear energy is expected to grow, driven by infrastructure investments and emerging energy technologies, presenting global investment opportunities in the nuclear energy supply chain [5] Group 4: Engineering Tire Market Potential - The Yarlung Tsangpo River project is anticipated to drive a new wave of supply chain autonomy, benefiting domestic engineering tire manufacturers [6] - The engineering tire market is currently dominated by international giants, but local companies may find opportunities to penetrate this high-profit sector as domestic production capabilities improve [6] Group 5: Soft Drink Industry Transformation - The Chinese soft drink industry is at a critical juncture, transitioning from growth driven by volume to structural upgrades, with emerging health and functional trends creating new market opportunities [7] - The industry is expected to maintain cost advantages in the short term, while long-term growth will depend on product innovation and channel optimization [7] Group 6: Semiconductor and AI Integration - ASMPT reported a revenue increase of 1.8% year-on-year, with a significant rise in order amounts, indicating a recovery in the semiconductor sector driven by AI and supply chain diversification [11] - The company is advancing its packaging technology and benefiting from increased demand for AI-related products, leading to an upward revision of its target price [11] Group 7: Financial Performance of Selected Companies - Ningbo Bank reported a revenue and net profit growth of 7.9% and 8.2% year-on-year, respectively, attributed to strong credit issuance and improved funding costs [15] - Google exceeded revenue expectations with a 14% year-on-year increase, driven by strong advertising and cloud business performance, prompting an upward revision of its capital expenditure guidance [16] - Zhou Dafu's retail sales showed a narrowing decline, supported by improved consumer sentiment and operational efficiency, leading to a positive outlook for the company's fundamentals [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the nuclear energy sector in the U.S. and a "Buy" rating for specific companies such as KAP and CGN Mining [1][5][12] Core Insights - The expectation of electricity shortages in the U.S. is strengthening, with the PJM electricity market's recent capacity auction clearing at the maximum level, highlighting concerns over electricity supply and the need for base-load power sources [1][2] - The U.S. government, under the "AI National Policy," emphasizes the importance of energy infrastructure development, including nuclear fission and fusion technologies, positioning nuclear energy as a critical driver for economic growth and AI development [2][3] - Various stakeholders in the U.S. are increasingly supportive of new nuclear power projects, with significant announcements from energy developers and state officials indicating a shift from strong expectations to tangible developments in nuclear capacity [3] Summary by Sections Electricity Supply and Demand - The U.S. Department of Energy's report indicates an expected addition of 101 GW of electricity load by 2030, while only 22 GW of base-load capacity is planned, revealing a significant gap in electricity supply [1] - The PJM market's capacity auction results show a price of $329.17/MW-day for 134.3 GW of base-load power, a 22% increase from the previous year, reflecting heightened electricity shortage expectations [1] Nuclear Energy Development - The U.S. nuclear energy sector is poised for revival, with new projects and expansions being planned, including applications for new AP1000 reactors and commitments from major operators to advance nuclear projects [3][5] - The report highlights the strategic importance of nuclear energy in the context of U.S. economic and technological advancements, particularly in relation to AI [2] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include CGN Mining and KAP, with additional mentions of companies across the nuclear energy supply chain, such as Cameco, Doosan Energy, and GE Vernova [5][8] - The report projects significant profit growth for KAP, with expected net profits of 649, 874, and 1,151 million for 2025-2027, respectively, and a target price of $58.91 per share [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry [3]. Core Insights - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from a growth phase characterized by new product launches to a more competitive environment focused on existing products, making it challenging to cultivate new billion-dollar brands [16][39]. - The report highlights the emergence of health and functional trends in consumer preferences, which are expected to create new market opportunities for innovative products [5][17]. - The industry is witnessing a shift in growth logic from volume-driven to structural upgrades, emphasizing the need for companies to enhance product innovation and channel management capabilities to succeed [18][19]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The soft drink sector in China has a vast potential for nurturing billion-dollar products, with notable examples including Red Bull (23.4 billion), Dongpeng Special Drink (17.6 billion), and Wanglaoji (13.8 billion) [4][20]. - The market size for the soft drink industry reached 691.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.0% from 2014 to 2024 [21]. Market Trends - The report identifies a significant trend towards health and functionality in beverages, with a growing demand for low-sugar and functional drinks [5][17]. - The Japanese soft drink market's history of sugar reduction and functionalization serves as a reference for potential developments in China [17]. Competitive Landscape - The competitive dynamics have intensified, with a notable increase in product and channel homogeneity, making it harder to develop new billion-dollar products [41]. - Major players like Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Master Kong are recommended for their strong market positions and innovative capabilities [8]. Future Outlook - Short-term projections indicate that the cost advantages in the industry will continue, benefiting leading companies [18]. - Long-term success will depend on companies' abilities to innovate products and refine channel strategies to capture emerging consumer demands [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage sector [7] Core Insights - The Chinese soft drink industry is transitioning from a growth phase characterized by new product launches to a more competitive landscape focused on existing products, with significant challenges in cultivating new billion-dollar products [14][15] - Emerging trends in health and functionality are reshaping consumer preferences, creating opportunities for new product categories such as sugar-free beverages and functional drinks [3][16] - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and channel development as key factors for companies to succeed in the evolving market [17][18] Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The food and beverage sector is rated as "Overweight" [7] Industry Overview - The soft drink market in China reached a scale of 6,914 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 4.0% from 2014 to 2024 [20] - Major billion-dollar products include Red Bull (23.4 billion), Dongpeng Special Drink (17.6 billion), and Wanglaoji (13.8 billion) [15][32] Market Trends - The report identifies a shift towards health and functionality in consumer preferences, with sugar-free and functional beverages gaining traction [3][16] - The health trend began with the introduction of sugar-free drinks in China in 1997, with significant growth noted since 2018 [3][16] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights that the competition in the soft drink industry has intensified, with a focus on product differentiation beyond taste to include packaging, marketing, and functional attributes [18][37] - The market is characterized by a high degree of product and channel homogeneity, making it challenging for new billion-dollar products to emerge [15][37] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies with strong comprehensive capabilities, such as Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Master Kong [5][9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 16.00 [6][5]. Core Insights - The company's retail sales for FY26Q1 showed a year-on-year decline of 1.9%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 9.7 percentage points, indicating a recovery in consumer sentiment and improved sales performance in certain product categories [1][2]. - The same-store sales decline in mainland China narrowed to -3.3%, supported by the growth of priced products and a low base effect from the previous year [2][3]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its product mix and closing underperforming stores, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and support a positive outlook for the company's fundamentals [1][4]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - For FY26Q1, the company's retail sales in mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau showed a year-on-year decline of 3.3% and an increase of 7.8%, respectively [1][2]. - The same-store sales growth (SSSG) for mainland China was -3.3% year-on-year but improved by 2.2% quarter-on-quarter, while Hong Kong saw a growth of 0.2% year-on-year and 9.5% in Macau [2]. Product Mix and Margins - The proportion of fixed-price products is steadily increasing, which supports the resilience of the gross margin [3]. - Retail sales of high-margin priced gold products in mainland China increased by 20.8% year-on-year, contributing to the overall profitability of the company [3]. Store Optimization - The company continues to implement its channel optimization strategy, closing 347 stores while opening 40, resulting in a net reduction of 307 stores [4]. - The remaining stores are expected to effectively capture customers from closed locations, positively impacting profitability [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for FY26, FY27, and FY28 to be HKD 76.3 billion, HKD 83.6 billion, and HKD 92.3 billion, respectively [5][10]. - The target price of HKD 16 corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 21 times for FY26, reflecting the company's position as an industry leader with improving same-store sales and profitability [5][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ASMPT with a target price of 77.2 HKD, up from the previous 69 HKD [4][6]. Core Insights - ASMPT's 2Q25 revenue reached 34.0 billion HKD, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.9%, closely aligning with Bloomberg consensus expectations [1][6]. - The order amount was 37.5 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.2% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 11.9%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 16% [1][2]. - The gross margin was reported at 39.7%, a slight decline of 33 basis points year-on-year and 119 basis points quarter-on-quarter, which is in line with expectations [1][2]. - Net profit for the quarter was 1.343 billion HKD, down 1.7% year-on-year but up 62.6% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of Bloomberg consensus expectations [1][2]. Revenue and Orders - The SEMI business revenue increased by 21.4% year-on-year and 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, driven by strong AI-related power management demand and improved OSAT capacity utilization in the Chinese market [2]. - SMT business revenue saw a year-on-year decline of 16.7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.6%, with orders increasing by 51.6% year-on-year and 29.3% quarter-on-quarter, driven by significant orders from smartphone clients and new AI server-related orders [2]. Advanced Packaging - Orders for TCB in the advanced packaging segment increased by 50% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with successful installations for leading HBM3E 12H customers [3]. - The company is progressing towards mass production of AOR TCB for C2W applications, with competitive advantages in alignment and bonding accuracy for the second-generation HB tools expected to be delivered in Q3 [3]. Financial Projections - The report projects net profit increases of 3% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 7% for 2027, resulting in net profits of 6.23 billion HKD, 10.35 billion HKD, and 16.27 billion HKD respectively [4][10]. - Corresponding EPS estimates are 1.50 HKD for 2025, 2.49 HKD for 2026, and 3.91 HKD for 2027 [4][10]. Valuation Metrics - The target price adjustment to 77.2 HKD is based on a 31x PE for 2026, compared to a comparable company average of 25.2x [4][32]. - The current market capitalization is approximately 26.32 billion HKD, with a closing price of 63.20 HKD as of July 23 [7].

Group 1: Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" theme is gradually forming, supported by policies such as the commencement of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and restrictions on overproduction in the coal industry [2][3] - The report suggests focusing on three investment strategies: 1) low-value, low-chips, high-dividend sectors like building materials and chemicals; 2) sectors with natural capacity clearance signs such as wind power and agricultural chemicals; 3) sectors like photovoltaics that have already priced in pessimistic expectations [2][3] Group 2: Industry Analysis - The engineering tire industry is expected to benefit from the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project, which will promote a new wave of supply chain autonomy, allowing domestic companies to penetrate a high-profit market worth billions [3] - The report highlights the potential for new billion-dollar products in the soft drink industry, driven by changing consumer preferences towards health and functionality, indicating a shift from volume-driven growth to structural upgrades [9] Group 3: Company Performance - ASMPT reported a revenue of HKD 3.4 billion for Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with orders amounting to HKD 3.75 billion, reflecting a 20.2% year-on-year growth [11] - Bilibili is expected to achieve a revenue of CNY 7.35 billion in Q2 2025, representing a 20% year-on-year increase, with a focus on new game releases and advertising growth [12] - QuanFeng Holdings anticipates a net profit of USD 90 million to 100 million for H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 46% to 62%, driven by the growth of its EGO brand and strategic asset divestitures [17] Group 4: Market Trends - The report indicates that the Hong Kong asset revaluation is entering a new phase, with external disturbances diminishing and relative expectations improving, suggesting a potential early start for the third round of the Hong Kong stock market rally [7] - The report emphasizes that the overall market is expected to reach new heights in the second half of the year, supported by favorable domestic policies and easing pressures [7]

证券研究报告 策略 "反内卷"主线或逐渐形成 2025 年 7 月 24 日│中国内地 动态点评 华泰研究 何康，PhD 研究员 hekang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2202 王伟光 研究员 SAC No. S0570523040001 wangweiguang@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 方正韬 研究员 SAC No. S0570524060001 fangzhengtao@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 孙瀚文 研究员 SAC No. S0570524040002 SFC No. BVB302 sunhanwen@htsc.com +(86) 21 2897 2228 核心观点 近日，雅鲁藏布江下游水电站项目（以下简称"雅下项目"）开工和煤炭行 业限制超产等政策助力下"反内卷"主线逐渐形成，背后是政策力度和市场 认知的进一步深化：其一，此前部分投资者担忧本轮"反内卷"缺乏需求侧 政策配合，雅下项目落地提供了积极信号，下半年信用和库存周期拐点渐次 出现、ROE 企稳回升的能见度进一步上升；其二，本轮"反内卷"政策已 完成政策定调和顶 ...