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亚星锚链(601890):25Q1扣非归母净利润同比增长36%,周期与成长共振
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 07:35
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company is experiencing a growth phase driven by the shipbuilding and offshore oil service cycles, alongside expansion into floating wind power [3] - The company reported a 19% year-on-year increase in net profit for 2024, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25% for net profit from 2025 to 2027 [4] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 1.989 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.98%, and a net profit of 282 million, up 19.21% year-on-year [2][11] - For Q1 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 588 million, a year-on-year increase of 30.88%, while net profit decreased by 22.77% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for 2024 was approximately 31.41%, an increase of 0.82 percentage points year-on-year [2] Market and Industry Insights - The shipbuilding industry is entering a period of increased demand due to a replacement cycle and environmental regulations, which is expected to boost orders [3] - The offshore oil and gas sector is recovering, with increased capital expenditure anticipated, benefiting the company's mooring chain products [3] - The floating offshore wind power market is growing, and the company has secured multiple contracts in this area, positioning it well for future growth [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 318 million, 402 million, and 495 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 27%, and 23% [4][11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated to be 26, 20, and 17 times respectively [4][11]
天承科技:年报和一季报点评:PCB业务定成长基调,半导体业务拓进阶空间-20250430
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 07:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 102 million yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 26.77%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.97 million yuan, up 5.76% year-on-year [1] - The PCB materials business has optimized its structure, enhancing profitability and demonstrating clear growth attributes, with a gross margin of 42.19% in Q1 2025 [2] - The semiconductor business is poised for growth, having developed key electroplating products for advanced packaging, with recognition from leading packaging manufacturers [3] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 381 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.32%, and a net profit of 74.68 million yuan, up 27.50% [9] - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 484.4 million yuan, 675.28 million yuan, and 939.34 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 121.29 million yuan, 179.35 million yuan, and 275.46 million yuan [9] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to grow from 0.89 yuan in 2024 to 3.28 yuan in 2027 [9]
信用热点聚焦系列之十:中航产融相关影响预判
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 05:48
证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 30 日 中航产融相关影响预判 ——信用热点聚焦系列之十 核心观点 目前中航产融估值波动体现的是流动性风险而非信用风险,由于短期实质违约风险低, 可博弈高估值成交机会。本次阶段性冲击下的收益率接近见顶,对于负债端稳定的自 营账户和无过多限制的配置户而言具备配置价值。 ❑ 中航产融复牌前后债券成交情况 中航产融 4 月 23 日发布债券复牌公告,公司债券转场外兑付事宜未取得债券持 有人会议表决通过,相关债券于 2025 年 4 月 24 日复牌。 中航产融近一周债券成交情况:整体成交价格以折价成交为主,期限以 2 年以内 短端品种为主,长期限跌的稍多,一年以内债券相对波动较小。4 月 24 日复牌首 日偏离估值成交均值为 195bp;25 日偏离估值成交均值为 77bp,偏离估值成交幅 度收敛;28 日成交金额为上一交易日的 2.4 倍,偏离估值成交均值反弹,为 107bp。 中航产融估值波动情况:以 22 产融 02 为例,4 月 14 日至 4 月 23 日期间,债券 估值呈小幅上行趋势,4 月 24 日复 ...
片仔癀(600436):片仔(600436):产品销售强劲,毛利率短期承压
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 04:31
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 中药Ⅱ 产品销售强劲,毛利率短期承压 ——片仔癀 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 ❑ 风险提示:政策调整风险、成本波动风险。 | 财务摘要 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Forcast] (百万元) | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | 营业收入 | 10788 | 11855 | 13062 | 14270 | | (+/-) (%) | 7.25% | 9.89% | 10.18% | 9.25% | | 归母净利润 | 2977 | 3295 | 3779 | 4349 | | (+/-) (%) | 6.42% | 10.67% | 14.70% | 15.08% | | 每股收益(元) | 4.93 | 5.46 | 6.26 | 7.21 | | P/E | 41.50 | 37.50 | 32.70 | 28.41 | 资料来源:浙商证券研究所 片仔癀(600436) 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 30 日 投资评级: 买入(维持) 分析师:吴天昊 执业证 ...
爱玛科技(603529):2024年年报、2025年Q1业绩点评:盈利逆势显现真章,量价弹性蓄势待发
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 03:56
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company has demonstrated resilience in profitability despite industry pressures, with a notable increase in net profit per vehicle [5][6] - The company is expected to continue benefiting from policy incentives and a strong product lineup, leading to sustained growth in revenue and profit [6] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 21.606 billion yuan (up 2.71% year-on-year) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.988 billion yuan (up 5.68% year-on-year) [5] - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.232 billion yuan (up 25.82% year-on-year) and a net profit of 605 million yuan (up 25.12% year-on-year) [5] - The company sold 10.455 million vehicles in 2024 (down 2.66% year-on-year), with an average selling price (ASP) of 2,067 yuan (up 5.5% year-on-year) [5] Product and Market Dynamics - The electric two-wheeler segment generated revenue of 18.25 billion yuan (down 2.1% year-on-year), while the electric three-wheeler segment saw revenue growth of 36.1% to 1.95 billion yuan [5] - The company is focusing on product innovation with trendy models aimed at younger consumers, enhancing its market appeal [5][6] Industry Outlook - The demand side is supported by simplified replacement processes and increased subsidies, with over 4.2 million vehicles replaced since the beginning of 2025 [5] - The introduction of new national standards is expected to enhance industry concentration, benefiting leading companies like the report's subject [5][6] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.741 billion yuan, 33.569 billion yuan, and 39.293 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 33.0%, 16.8%, and 17.1% respectively [6] - The estimated net profit for the same period is 2.658 billion yuan, 3.196 billion yuan, and 3.828 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 33.7%, 20.3%, and 19.8% [6]
海澜之家(600398):基本盘逐渐企稳,新零售业态持续壮大
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 03:51
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 海澜之家(600398) 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 30 日 基本盘逐渐企稳,新零售业态持续壮大 ——海澜之家点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25Q1 盈利超预期,全年维持高分红率 2024 年实现收入 209.6 亿元(同比-2.7%),归母净利润 21.59 亿元(同比- 26.9%),扣非后归母净利润 20.15 亿元(同比-25.6%),净利率下降主要是由于 费用杠杆及新业务并表。 25Q1 实现收入 61.9 亿元(同比+0.2%),归母净利润 9.35 亿元(同比+5.5%), 扣非后归母净利润 9.26 亿元(同比+5.5%),高基数上业绩增速转正,表现超预 期。 24 年公司拟现金分红 19.69 亿元,分红率 91.22%,对应股息率 5.2%。 ❑ 主品牌:Q3 触底后降幅逐季收窄,直营占比提升 24 年主品牌收入 152.7 亿元(同比-7.2%),毛利率同比提升 1.3pp 至 46.5%,主 要来自直营及电商占比提升。逐季度趋势来看,24Q1 至 Q3 逐季度走弱,但 24Q4、25Q1 的同比降幅已逐渐收窄。 门店数量来看,24 年直营店净 ...
兴业银行:资产质量仍处改善通道-20250430
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 02:15
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's asset quality continues to improve, with a TTM real non-performing loan generation rate of 1.24%, a decrease of 16 basis points from the previous quarter, maintaining the improvement trend since Q3 2024 [1][5] - Revenue and net profit for Q1 2025 decreased by 3.6% and 2.2% year-on-year, respectively, primarily due to slowed growth in scale and increased non-interest burdens, although interest margin pressures improved [2][3] - The average daily interest margin for Q1 2025 was 1.80%, down 7 basis points year-on-year, but rebounded by 2 basis points compared to Q4 2024, benefiting from a significant decrease in the interest rate paid on deposits [3] - The bank's financial investment balance reached 3.55 trillion, demonstrating resilience amid challenges in the bond market, with minimal losses reported [4] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio increased slightly to 1.08% at the end of Q1 2025, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 55,683 million, a decrease of 3.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 23,796 million, down 2.2% year-on-year [12] - The return on equity (ROE) for Q1 2025 was 9.0%, reflecting a decline from previous quarters [12] Profitability and Valuation - The forecasted net profit growth rates for 2025-2027 are -1.16%, 0.41%, and 2.25%, respectively, with corresponding book values per share (BPS) of 39.20, 41.64, and 44.16 [6] - The target price is set at 25.82 CNY per share, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price [6] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio at the end of Q1 2025 was 1.08%, with a slight increase from the previous quarter, while the attention loan ratio remained stable at 1.71% [5] - The provision coverage ratio decreased to 233% [1][5]
浦发银行:经营拐点再印证-20250430
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 01:40
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ ❑ 浦发银行 25Q1 盈利动能、客群夯实、资产质量三大经营拐点再印证,基本面继 续向好,目标价 16.45 元/股,现价空间 52%。 ❑ 数据概览 浦发银行 25Q1 营收同比增长 1.3%,较 24A 由减转增;归母净利润同比增长 1.0%。25Q1 末不良率环比下降 3bp 至 1.33%;25Q1 末拨备覆盖率环比基本持平 于 187%。 ❑ 盈利动能拐点印证 经营拐点再印证 ——浦发银行 2025 年一季报点评 投资要点 浦发银行 25Q1 营收同比由负转正,尤其是核心营收全面向好,盈利动能拐点印 证。25Q1 营收同比增长 1.3%,较 24A由减转增。其中,25Q1 利息净收入同比增 长 0.5%,较 24A 的-3.1%改善;中收同比持平,较 24A 的-6.7%改善。 展望未来,得益于资产质量拐点向好,浦发银行信用成本压力有望继续消退,支 撑全年利润增速修复。 ❑ 客群夯实拐点印证 浦发银行 25Q1 负债成本显著优化,显示客群基础显著夯实,支撑息差环比企 稳。测算浦发银行 25Q1 单季息差环比基本持平于 1.33%,主要得益于单季付息 负债 ...
新凤鸣:2024年报及2025一季报点评:业绩稳中有增,涤丝龙头完善一体化产业链-20250430
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 01:30
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学纤维 业绩稳中有增,涤丝龙头完善一体化产业链 ——新凤鸣 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评 ❑ 4 月 25 日,公司发布 2024 年报:2024 年,公司实现营业收入 670.91 亿元,同比 +9.15%;实现归母净利润 11.00 亿元,同比+1.32%;加权平均净资产收益率为 6.46%,同比减少 0.22 个百分点。销售毛利率 5.63,同比减少 0.21 个百分点;销 售净利率 1.64%,同比减少 0.13 个百分点。 其中,2024Q4 实现营收 178.94 亿元,同比+3.62%,环比-0.17%;实现归母净利 润 3.55 亿元,同比+77.92%,环比+151.84%;平均净资产收益率为 2.08%,同比 增加 0.89 个百分点,环比增加 1.25 个百分点。销售毛利率 5.68%,同比增加 1.16 个百分点,环比增加 0.76 个百分点;销售净利率 1.98%,同比增加 0.82 个 百分点,环比增加 1.19 个百分点。 ❑ 同时,4 月 29 日,公司发布 2025 年一季报:2025Q1 实现营收 145.57 亿元,同 比+0. ...
中信银行:扩表提速,息差下行-20250430
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-04-30 01:30
证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 股份制银行Ⅱ 中信银行(601998) 报告日期:2025 年 04 月 30 日 扩表提速,息差下行 ——中信银行 2025 年一季报点评 25Q1 中信银行息差(期初期末口径,下同)环比 24Q4 下降 10bp 至 1.61%,资 产端下行幅度大于负债端下行幅度。①25Q1 资产收益率环比下降 25bp 至 3.31%,判断一方面受市场利率下行影响,一方面受资产结构变化影响。25Q1 债 券投资增速(同比 9.4%)显著高于贷款增速(同比 5.1%)。目前配置盘票息收 入有限,债券增配可能对息差产生负面影响。②25Q1 负债成本率环比下降 15bp 至 1.74%,判断主要得益于存款利率调整。展望未来,中信银行息差仍面临收窄 压力,主要考虑市场利率下行和债券票息利差收窄。 ❑ 资产质量波动 25Q1 末中信银行不良率环比持平于 1.16%,关注率较 24Q4 末上升 5bp 至 1.68%,风险指标小幅承压。动态指标来看,25Q1 中信银行真实不良 TTM 生成 率 1.28%,环比上升 2bp。 ❑ 盈利预测与估值 投资要点 ❑ 中信银行 2025Q1 资产扩表提速,息 ...