Group 1: Key Recommendations - The report highlights Huachen Equipment (300809) as a leading domestic roll grinding machine manufacturer, with a strategic focus on humanoid robot grinding machines to tap into a blue ocean market [5] - The recommendation logic is based on the company's superior product performance, which has reached international leading levels, and confirmed orders from top humanoid robot manufacturers [5] - The steel industry is expected to recover, which will positively impact the company's short-term performance, as its main revenue comes from CNC roll grinding machines [5] Group 2: Important Insights - The medical device sector is anticipated to see a performance recovery in H2 2025, driven by ongoing bidding recovery and inventory adjustments in high-value consumables [7][8] - The report notes that the market remains cautious about the sustainability of bidding recovery and the impact of high-value consumables procurement on company performance [7] - The long-term growth potential of chain pharmacies is highlighted, with expectations for revenue and profit growth driven by improved management and diversification efforts [8] Group 3: Financial Projections - For Huachen Equipment, projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 558.70 million, 700.90 million, and 914.30 million yuan, with growth rates of 25% for the first two years and 30% for 2027 [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 109.70 million, 153.50 million, and 200.50 million yuan, with growth rates of 59%, 40%, and 31% respectively [6] - Earnings per share are expected to be 0.40, 0.60, and 0.80 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 82.50, 58.90, and 45.10 [6] Group 4: Market Strategy - The report suggests maintaining a diversified investment strategy, focusing on banks as a stable foundation while also investing in low-positioned securities and technology growth sectors [9] - It emphasizes the importance of individual stock selection over index performance, especially in the technology sector, given the current market conditions [9] - The outlook indicates limited downside potential in the market, with opportunities for individual stocks to perform well despite potential index corrections [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall investment rating for the bond market. However, it gives rating criteria for different types of bonds: - **Interest - rate bonds**: Based on the net price change of interest - rate bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [34]. - **Credit bonds**: Based on the net price change of credit bonds within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [35]. - **Convertible bonds**: Based on the price change of convertible bonds relative to the CSI Convertible Bond Index within 3 months after the report date. Ratings include "Add", "Neutral", and "Reduce" [36]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The convertible bond index has reached a new high, and its future trend depends on the performance of the equity market. The market scale is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is significant. Investors are advised to focus on individual bonds rather than the index, increase tolerance for the price range of convertible bonds, and consider balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term in line with policy directions [1][2][9]. - The median price of convertible bonds is 125.68 yuan, the median parity is 99.42 yuan, and the median conversion premium rate is 26%. The valuations of all types of convertible bonds have increased in the past two weeks. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined marginally in cross - asset comparisons, but due to the "asset shortage" in the market, institutional attention to convertible bonds remains high [2][7]. - The supply of convertible bonds accelerated in the second quarter, with 10 issues listed, totaling about 13.76 billion yuan. Six convertible bonds have been listed in July, with a scale of about 4.35 billion yuan, a faster pace than in 2024. From April to July, 7 convertible bonds matured and 25 were forcibly redeemed, with a total exit scale of over 40 billion yuan. Another 50 billion yuan of convertible bonds will mature from August to December. The short - term supply supplement is still limited [2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 1. Convertible Bond Weekly Thinking - The equity market reached 3500 last week, driving the convertible bond index to a new high. The median price of convertible bonds has reached 125 yuan, an all - time high. The willingness to force redemption increased in July, capping the theoretical price of convertible bonds [7]. - The price and valuation of convertible bonds are both high, and their future trend depends on the equity market. If the equity market rises, convertible bonds may follow but with limited space; if it moves sideways, funds may realize profits; if it declines, convertible bonds may be relatively resistant to decline [2][7]. - The market scale of convertible bonds is shrinking rapidly, and the supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Although the number of new issuance plans has increased and the approval process seems to be accelerating, the current stock of planned convertible bonds is still limited, and the issuance of mainstream varieties such as bank convertible bonds is restricted by new refinancing regulations [2][8]. - Given the high median price of convertible bonds, investors are advised to focus on individual bonds. Balanced convertible bonds with strong underlying stocks and partial - equity convertible bonds that will not be redeemed in the short term can provide trading opportunities. If opportunities are limited, investors can consider adjusting their positions from high - priced to low - priced bonds [2][9]. 3.2 2. Convertible Bond Market Tracking 3.2.1 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Conditions The report provides the performance data of various convertible bond indices in different time periods (near - week, near - two - week, since March, near - one - month, near - two - month, near - half - year, near - one - year), such as the Wind Convertible Bond Energy Index, Wind Convertible Bond Material Index, etc. [14]. 3.2.2 2.2 Convertible Bond Individual Bonds The document does not provide specific content in the text, but there are charts showing the top ten and bottom ten individual bond price changes (excluding new listings) in the past week [16]. 3.2.3 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the valuation trends of bond - type, balanced, and equity - type convertible bonds, as well as the conversion premium rate valuation trends of convertible bonds in different parity ranges [25][28]. 3.2.4 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices The document does not provide specific written analysis, but there are charts showing the proportion trend of high - priced bonds and the median price trend of convertible bonds [30].

Economic Indicators - The GDP weekly high-frequency prosperity index as of July 12 is 5.8%, remaining stable compared to the previous week's revised value of 5.8%[1] - The industrial weekly prosperity index slightly decreased to 8.3% from 8.4%[10] - The service industry weekly prosperity index also slightly decreased to 4.0% from 4.1%[10] Production and Demand - Production indicators show mixed results, with service and industrial sectors experiencing fluctuations compared to last week[13] - Consumer demand is declining, with the consumption high-frequency index dropping to 4.6% from 5.0%[10] - Infrastructure investment shows a slight decline, with rebar apparent demand at 221.5 million tons, down from 224.9 million tons[10] Real Estate Market - The real estate market is experiencing a significant downturn, with 30 major cities' property sales dropping to 125.9 million square meters, a 44% decrease week-on-week and a 26% decrease year-on-year[52] - The cumulative transaction area for real estate in 2025 is 49.57 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 2.37%[52] Export Performance - Container throughput remains high, with 653,000 TEUs reported, slightly down from 667,000 TEUs last week, but showing a year-to-date increase of 3.6%[61] - U.S. imports from China are improving, with 21.8 million TEUs arriving, reflecting a 21.7% increase week-on-week[61] Price Trends - Marginal recovery in prices is noted, with the agricultural wholesale price index rising by 0.45% week-on-week[63] - The average price of pork increased by 1.12% week-on-week, indicating a stabilization after previous declines[66]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report It is expected that with the combined cooperation of the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase and outright reverse repurchase, the funds' volatility during the tax period may be small. The past week saw a slight tightening of funds, and in the coming week, attention should be paid to the disturbances of government bond net payments and tax period outflows. The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased. In the future, the disturbances from funds and the equity market to the bond market will increase, and recently, the market may return to active bond trading to avoid liquidity risks during adjustments [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Liquidity Tracking 3.1.1 Central Bank Operations - In the past week (7/7 - 7/11), the central bank's open - market operations led to a net liquidity withdrawal of 2265 billion yuan. As of 7/11, the central bank's reverse repurchase balance was 4257 billion yuan, significantly lower than that on 6/30 but still higher than the seasonal level in previous years. In the next week (7/14 - 7/18), the central bank's reverse repurchase will mature 4257 billion yuan, with a relatively small maturity scale evenly distributed daily. In July, the central bank has 1.5 trillion yuan of MLF and outright reverse repurchase maturing, including 3000 billion yuan of MLF, 7000 billion yuan of 3 - month outright reverse repurchase, and 5000 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase [9][10]. 3.1.2 Government Bond Issuance - In the past week, the government bond net payment was 2961 billion yuan, with 1849 billion yuan for national bonds and 1112 billion yuan for local bonds. In the next week, the expected government bond net payment is 3985 billion yuan, with 2761 billion yuan for national bonds and 1224 billion yuan for local bonds. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday and Tuesday. As of 7/11, the net financing progress of national bonds is 56.7%, and the remaining net financing space in 2025 is about 2.89 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of new local bonds is 51.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2.51 trillion yuan; the issuance progress of refinancing special bonds is 89.8%, with a remaining issuance space of 2041 billion yuan. The supply of government bonds accelerated in the second week of July, and the issuance pressure is relatively large in August and September of the third quarter [17][18][20]. 3.1.3 Bill Market - In the past week, bill interest rates showed a divergent trend, with the 3 - month bill interest rate rising and the 6 - month bill interest rate falling. Seasonally, the current bill interest rate trend is still significantly weaker than the seasonal level, indicating that the recovery of credit demand remains slow [25]. 3.1.4 Funds Review - Funds tightened slightly, showing a trend of first loosening, then slightly tightening, and finally relaxing. The funds were the loosest at the opening on 7/7 and the tightest at the opening on 7/10. Most fund interest rates increased, and the term and market stratifications mostly converged [27][30][31]. 3.1.5 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - In the past week (7/7 - 7/13), the total issuance of certificates of deposit was 4271 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 833.9 billion yuan. The issuance scale increased compared with the previous week, but the net financing scale declined. As of 7/13, the cumulative net financing of certificates of deposit for the whole year was 1.73 trillion yuan. The issuance weighted term decreased. In the next week, the maturity scale is 8028 billion yuan, and the maturity pressure is relatively large from Tuesday to Friday [50][55]. 3.2 Institutional Behavior Tracking 3.2.1 Secondary Market Transactions - The trading demand from trading desks has weakened, and the net buying of general credit bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds by major non - bank buyers has decreased. Different types of bonds have different buying and selling situations among various institutions. For example, large banks' purchases of short - term national bonds have increased, and the net buying of credit bonds by major non - bank buyers has significantly decreased [61]. 3.2.2 Institutional Duration - The median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds has oscillated upwards. The 10 - day moving average of the median duration of medium - and long - term bond funds on 7/11 was 4.04 years, up from 3.96 years on 7/4. The secondary market trading duration of credit bonds showed mixed trends, with the 5 - day moving average of urban investment bond trading duration rising and that of Tier 2 capital bond trading duration falling [59][64]. 3.2.3 Institutional Leverage - The calculated bond market leverage ratio in the past week was 107.65%, a significant decrease compared with the previous week (107.96%) [66].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that signals of "anti-involution" will drive the industry out of its bottom phase [1] - The report highlights that the SW Steel Index has increased by 4.4% week-to-date and 10.2% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend in the steel sector [3] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.13 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2% week-to-date but a significant increase of 20.4% year-to-date [5] - The report notes that the iron ore port inventory stands at 13,769 million tons, with a week-to-date increase of 0.8% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.3% [5] Price Data Summary - The report provides various price data for steel products, including: - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) at 3,240 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 5.0% [3] - Hot-rolled coil at 3,310 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 3.2% [3] - Cold-rolled steel at 3,640 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The weekly production of five major steel products is reported, with a notable increase in daily molten iron output [9] - The report indicates that the operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 companies is being monitored, reflecting the industry's production capacity utilization [12][14]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - Social inventory has decreased for the first time, and summer demand is expected to remain strong. Domestic power plants are increasing daily coal consumption, leading to rising coal prices. Policies to control production and improve quality are being emphasized, supporting the fundamentals of both coking coal and thermal coal [6][29] - The report highlights that the overall level of social inventory is stable, with a significant increase in daily consumption expected due to hot weather and ongoing replenishment needs at power plants. The coking coal sector may see marginal improvements in performance due to potential declines in capacity utilization driven by environmental factors [6][29] Summary by Sections Coal Sector Performance - The coal sector saw a weekly increase of 0.71%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 0.82%. A total of 34 stocks in the sector increased in price, while 3 declined. Meijin Energy had the highest weekly increase at 10.8% [2] - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 7.21 million tons from July 4 to July 10, 2025, a week-on-week increase of 3.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.8% [2] Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, the price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 662 CNY/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 0.3%. The price index for imported thermal coal rose by 1.21% to 750 CNY/ton [3] - The price of coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1310 CNY/ton, up 4.8% week-on-week, while the price of metallurgical coke remained stable at 1320 CNY/ton [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The cumulative coal sales volume for key monitored enterprises was 131.73 million tons as of July 10, 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%. The demand from the power and chemical industries showed a year-on-year decrease of 3% and an increase of 16.6%, respectively [2][28] - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption in the power sector is expected to rise significantly, with the total social inventory of coal at 32.86 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.6% [2][28] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies that may experience a turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Meijin Energy among others [6][29]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The comprehensive improvement in Hong Kong's economy, population, policies, and financial environment provides a solid foundation for the recovery of the property market [4] - Policy relaxation has led to a surge in new home transactions, while the second-hand housing market shows significant differentiation [5] - The recovery of Hong Kong's property market is driven by the synergy of policies, population, and finance [6] Summary by Sections 01 Changes in Hong Kong's Fundamentals - Hong Kong is positioned as a global financial center with significant roles in international shipping, offshore RMB, and wealth management, contributing nearly 25% to GDP from financial services [6][14] - The population rebounded to 7.5 million in 2023, driven by talent introduction policies and international dynamics, enhancing purchasing power and market signals [18][34] - The median monthly household income reached 30,000 HKD by March 2025, supporting a recovery in housing demand as rental yields improved [34] - The "withdrawal of spicy policies" in February 2024, including the cancellation of stamp duties, stimulated demand and significantly increased new home transactions [6][47] 02 Analysis of Hong Kong's Property Market - New home transactions surged to 16,800 units in 2024, a 59% increase year-on-year, with significant growth in Hong Kong Island [57] - The second-hand housing market saw 31,200 transactions in 2024, a 13% increase, with a notable rise in transactions below 4 million HKD [66] - The competitive landscape is concentrated, with the top five developers holding nearly 50% market share, showcasing a mix of local giants and mainland firms [87] 03 Overview of Hong Kong Property Companies - The competitive structure of the Hong Kong property market consists of local giants, mainland developers, and medium-sized firms, with the top five developers being Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land, Cheung Kong, Wheelock, and Kerry Properties [87][88] - Each type of developer has distinct characteristics, with local giants focusing on high-end residential and integrated developments, while mainland firms target specific areas and market segments [88]

Group 1: Medical Devices - The medical device sector is expected to see a recovery in performance in H2 2025, driven by the resumption of hospital tenders and inventory clearance [5][34]. - High-value consumables are anticipated to benefit from significant domestic substitution opportunities and the completion of centralized procurement, leading to improved performance elasticity for companies [5][24]. - The home medical sector is projected to recover growth due to an improved consumer environment and ongoing new product investments [5][35]. - The IVD (in vitro diagnostics) sector is expected to enter a structural recovery phase, with head companies and differentiated competitors seeking innovation and overseas expansion [5][28]. Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies in the medical device sector include Xinhua Medical, Kaili Medical, Mindray Medical, and Union Medical, with a focus on those benefiting from tender recovery and overseas expansion [5][36]. - For high-value consumables, companies like Microelectrophysiology and Microinvasive Medical are highlighted, particularly those in electrophysiology, orthopedics, and coronary intervention [5][36]. - IVD companies with high technical barriers and continuous new product launches, such as Aide Biological, are also recommended [5][36]. Group 3: Chain Pharmacies - The chain pharmacy sector is experiencing a recovery in performance expectations and valuation due to diversified product expansion [41]. - The industry is witnessing an acceleration in store closures and a slowdown in new openings, with leading companies expected to increase their market share [42][60]. - Recommended leading pharmacy companies include Dazhenlin, Yifeng Pharmacy, and Laobaixing, with a focus on those with superior management capabilities [43][87]. Group 4: Valuation and Market Dynamics - The valuation of chain pharmacies has seen recovery due to improved profit growth expectations and diversified strategies [47]. - The supply side is facing stricter drug price controls, but leading pharmacies are expected to maintain better pricing power due to their market position [56]. - The industry is undergoing adjustments, with leading companies likely to recover profit growth in 2025 as they adapt to market changes [74][79].

Market Overview - On July 10, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.5%, the STAR 50 fell by 0.3%, the CSI 1000 rose by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.2%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% [5][7] - The best-performing sectors on July 10 were real estate (+3.2%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.5%), steel (+1.4%), non-bank financials (+1.4%), and coal (+1.1%). The worst-performing sectors were automobiles (-0.6%), media (-0.5%), defense and military industry (-0.4%), electronics (-0.3%), and utilities (-0.3%) [5][7] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,494.1 billion yuan, with a net inflow of southbound funds amounting to 2.902 billion HKD [2][7] Important Recommendations - The report recommends the company "Sanqi Interactive Entertainment" (002555) based on the potential for valuation recovery driven by major games like "Douluo Dalu: Hunting Soul World" [3][8] - The expected revenue for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be 19,140 million yuan, 21,949 million yuan, and 25,260 million yuan, with growth rates of 9.74%, 14.68%, and 15.08% respectively. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 2,758 million yuan, 3,276 million yuan, and 3,788 million yuan, with growth rates of 3.17%, 18.80%, and 15.62% respectively [8] Key Insights - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate was 0.1%, better than the previous value of -0.1%, primarily influenced by the rise in industrial consumer goods prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth rate recorded -3.6%, lower than market expectations [9][11] - The carbon market trading price in the first half of 2025 fell nearly 30%, from 97 yuan/ton to below 68 yuan/ton, mainly due to energy price fluctuations and policy easing. However, the price began to recover in June, exceeding 75 yuan/ton, driven by rising crude oil prices and seasonal demand [11][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].