证券研究报告 日本高速公路改革如何借鉴？ 行业评级：看好 2025年3月11日 分析师 李丹 分析师 李逸 邮箱 lidan02@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 liyi01@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230520040003 证书编号 S1230523070008 摘要 1、复盘：日本高速公路行业改革历程 2、日本高速公路公司经营对比 2 • 民营化改革：日本高速公路行业扩张高峰期过后，2005年民营化改革后实施产权、经营权分离模式。改革初始行政机构继承 约37万亿元债务，计划于2050年前还清。截至2023年末，管理机构债务余额约25万亿元（约合1.24万亿元人民币）。 95% • 费率先提再降：因建造成本高昂，日本收费标准为全球最高。财源紧张背景下，1972-1995年日本高速公路基础费率从8日 元/km提高到24.6日元/km，1995-2024年维持不变。民营化经营带来灵活的费率设定，2001年日本引入ETC收费折扣制度。 2008年起，为了应对经济低迷物价下跌、油价上涨，日本加大折扣优惠力度，实行更弹性灵活的费用制度，高速公路通行费 水平下调。 添加标题 • 延长收费年限：为了筹 ...

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 13 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 13 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商房地产 杨凡/吴贵伦】房地产 季度行业策略报告：估值筑底凸显配置价值——20250312 重要点评 ❑ 【浙商交运免税 李丹/李逸】铁路公路 行业深度：日本高速公路改革如何借鉴？——20250312 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 市场总览 1、大势 3 月 12 日上证指数下跌 0.23%，沪深 300 下跌 0.36%，科创 50 下跌 0.73%，中证 1000 上涨 0.23%，创 业板指下跌 0.58%，恒生指数下跌 0.76%。 2、行业 3 月 12 日表现最好的行业分别是传媒（+1.91%)、通信（+1.01%)、计算机（+0.8%)、建筑装饰 （+0.68%)、环保（+0.54%)，表现最差的行业分别是美容护理（-1.01%)、煤炭（-0.8%)、食品饮料（- ...

证券研究报告 ——2025年3月12日 行业评级：看好 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 日度金属价格变化 | | 最新金属价格 | | | 日度涨跌幅 | | | 今年至今涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 5 | 0 | . | 00% | - 0 | 20% . | | 氢氧化锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 0 | 0 | . | 00% | 0 . | 39% | | 铜 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | 9 | 1 | . | 36% | 6 . | 84% | | 黄金 | 元/克 | 679 . | 6 | 0 | . | 58% | 9 . | 97% | | 电解镍 | 万元/吨 | 13 . | 3 | 0 | . | 00% | 5 . | 74% | | 铝 | 万元/吨 | 2 . | 1 | 1 | . ...

锡：关注缅甸复产反转机会 ——锡行业2025Q1前瞻 行业评级：看好 2025年3月12日 分析师 沈皓俊 研究助理 沈家悦 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 shenjiayue@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230524080011 01 缅甸停产复盘：强预期与弱现实的冲突 证券研究报告 缅甸佤邦停矿时间节点：23年8月停矿至今未复产 根据国际锡协，根据2023年4月15日佤邦中央经济委员会发布的通知《佤经字2023—06号》和5月20日出台的《关于执行"暂停 一切矿产资源开采"的通知》，佤邦在2023年8月1日后矿山将停止一切勘探、开采、加工等作业。该项措施已落地，目前无相关 复工通知。我们认为，目前距离缅甸停矿时间已超一年，随着各项政策逐步落地，缅甸禁矿的时间点已渐近。 佤邦复产最新消息：已公布办理采矿证流程，今年大概率复产 根据SMM，佤邦工业矿产管理局发布的《办理开采、选厂、探矿许可证的流程》中明确了办理相关许可证的程序，缅甸复产已进 入正轨。因此我们认为，2025年缅甸复产是大概率事件。若一季度、二季度宣布复产，则年内会有来自缅甸的增量供给。 停产后锡价复 ...

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证券研究报告 | 公司深度 | 基础建设 新疆交建(002941) 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 05 日 立新疆大地，借基建春风 ——新疆交建深度报告 投资要点 ❑ 新疆地区最大的交通基建公司之一，超 80%业务分布于新疆省内 公司是新疆维吾尔自治区国资委直接管辖的路桥施工企业集团，主要业务涵盖公 路、桥梁等市政工程，是新疆维吾尔自治区最大的交通基础设施建设企业之一。 公司以工程施工业务为主营业务，在公路施工领域经验丰富，拥有地区领先的施 工资质，在特殊地质及气候等条件下具备丰富施工经验。截至 2024 年 6 月 30 日，公司 83%的业务分布在新疆省内，施工业占总收入比例超 95%。 ❑ 新疆独特区位优势带动基建需求旺盛 1）公路里程持续增长，年度投资规模保持高位。2023 年末全国公路总里程达 544 万公里，4 年 CAGR 为 2.1%；全国公路桥梁达 107.93 万座、9528.82 万延 米， 4 年 CAGR 分别为 5.3%、12%；全年完成公路固定资产投资 3.9 万亿元， 同比基本持平。2）新疆公路投资额持续增长。2019 年-2023 年，新疆公路交通 固定资产投资整体呈上升 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The group has seven subsidiaries that have simultaneously received recognition as national high-tech enterprises, affirming their technological innovation capabilities [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rapid development of humanoid robots, with a projected market demand of approximately 2.04 million units by 2030, translating to a market space of about 305 billion yuan, where the hollow cup motor could account for around 20.4 billion yuan [2][8] - The smart controller business is expected to benefit from the AI wave, with a national market size projected to reach trillions, and a CAGR of 13% over the past five years [2] - The company is undervalued as a pure smart controller manufacturer, as it is transitioning towards self-integrated systems based on its deep technological foundation in "four electrics and one network" [2] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 8,992 million yuan in 2023, with projections of 10,542 million yuan in 2024, 12,116 million yuan in 2025, and 14,273 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 1.3%, 17.2%, 14.9%, and 17.8% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 516 million yuan in 2023 to 670 million yuan in 2024, 887 million yuan in 2025, and 1,085 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -37.2%, 30.0%, 32.5%, and 22.2% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.4 yuan in 2023 to 0.5 yuan in 2024, 0.7 yuan in 2025, and 0.9 yuan in 2026 [2] Research and Development - The company's R&D investment accounted for 9.28% of its revenue in 2023, with a total investment of 834 million yuan and a workforce of 2,004 R&D personnel [10] - The cumulative number of patents reached 3,228, including 1,138 invention patents [10][14] Market Position and Valuation - The company is recognized as a leader in smart controllers and is expected to see significant growth in the humanoid robot sector [6] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 42.8 in 2023 to 20.3 in 2026, indicating a potential for value re-evaluation [2][17]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Zhilin Future Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., to incubate AI-powered products aimed at the children and new family sectors, driving industry transformation [1] - The company is enhancing its market share through the cash acquisition of the remaining 35% stake in Leyou International, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, further integrating the supply chain [3] - The company's three-expansion strategy focuses on diversifying its business model through large stores, small stores, franchises, warehouses, live streaming, and social commerce, with significant sales achieved through live streaming events [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.739 billion, 11.320 billion, and 12.689 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million, 334 million, and 395 million yuan, indicating strong growth potential [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the mother and baby retail sector, with over 1,000 digital direct-operated stores and more than 8,000 professional parenting consultants, leveraging extensive data resources for AI integration [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue for 2023 is expected to be 8.753 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.73%. Forecasted revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 9.739 billion, 11.320 billion, and 12.689 billion yuan, reflecting growth rates of 11.27%, 16.24%, and 12.09% respectively [6] - The company anticipates net profits of 105 million yuan for 2023, with significant increases projected for the following years, reaching 201 million, 334 million, and 395 million yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [6] Market Position - The company has a strong market presence, with over 75% penetration in cities with populations exceeding 500,000, and continues to expand its franchise model [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The company has received recognition for its technological innovation, with seven subsidiaries being certified as national high-tech enterprises, which will provide a 15% income tax rate benefit from 2024 to 2026, potentially enhancing profit margins [1][8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the growing humanoid robot industry, with an expected demand of approximately 2.04 million units by 2030 in China and the US, representing a market space of about 305 billion yuan, with the company's hollow cup motors expected to capture around 7% of this value [1] - The smart controller segment is anticipated to thrive due to the AI wave, with a national market projected to grow at a CAGR of 13% over the past five years [1] - The company is undervalued as it is primarily viewed as a smart controller manufacturer, while it is actually advancing towards becoming a comprehensive solution provider based on its deep technology foundation [1] Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 8,992 million yuan in 2023, with projections of 10,542 million yuan in 2024, 12,116 million yuan in 2025, and 14,273 million yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 1.3%, 17.2%, 14.9%, and 17.8% respectively [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 516 million yuan in 2023 to 670 million yuan in 2024, 887 million yuan in 2025, and 1,085 million yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -37.2%, 30.0%, 32.5%, and 22.2% respectively [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.4 yuan in 2023 to 0.5 yuan in 2024, 0.7 yuan in 2025, and 0.9 yuan in 2026 [2] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 42.8 in 2023 to 20.3 in 2026 [2] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 8.5% in 2023 to 12.7% in 2026 [2] Research and Development - The company maintains a long-term R&D investment ratio of 7-10% of revenue, with R&D spending reaching 834 million yuan in 2023, accounting for 9.28% of revenue [10] - The company has a total of 3,228 patents, including 1,138 invention patents, indicating a strong focus on innovation [10][14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Insights - The company has established a wholly-owned subsidiary, Nanjing Zhilin Future Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., to incubate AI-powered smart products aimed at the children and new family sectors, driving industry transformation [1] - The company is enhancing its market share through the cash acquisition of the remaining 35% stake in Leyou International, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, further integrating the supply chain [3] - The company's three-expansion strategy focuses on diversifying its business model through large stores, small stores, franchises, warehouses, live streaming, and social commerce, with significant sales achieved through live streaming events [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 9.739 billion, 11.320 billion, and 12.689 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 201 million, 334 million, and 395 million yuan [5] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading player in the mother and baby retail sector, with over 1,000 digital direct-operated stores and more than 8,000 professional parenting consultants, leveraging extensive data resources for AI integration [2] Financial Forecast - Revenue is expected to grow by 11%, 16%, and 12% in the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, while net profit is forecasted to increase significantly by 91%, 66%, and 18% during the same period [5][6] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 93, 56, and 48 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [5] Strategic Initiatives - The company is actively pursuing a three-expansion strategy that includes increasing product categories, market segments, and business formats, with a focus on accelerating franchise openings in lower-tier cities [4]