Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also above expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% to CNY 64.325 billion, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus by 1.49%. Operating profit increased by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, exceeding expectations by 10.21% [6]. - New business revenue rose by 19.2% to CNY 22.232 billion, also above consensus by 1.54%, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses increased by 11.96% to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses rose by 15.44% to CNY 5.772 billion, reflecting increased investment in AI, while the R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with significant investments planned for the next three years, totaling over CNY 100 billion to support various merchants [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with a significant increase in order volume during key promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of a membership program aimed at increasing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" (maintained) [2][7]. Core Views - Meituan, as a leader in local lifestyle services, is expected to maintain its core competitive advantages despite short-term competition in the food delivery sector. The company is projected to achieve revenues of CNY 390.41 billion, CNY 445.04 billion, and CNY 507.46 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15.65%, 13.99%, and 14.03% [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, Meituan's revenue increased by 18.1% year-on-year to CNY 86.557 billion, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates by 1.3%. Non-IFRS net profit rose by 46.2% to CNY 10.948 billion, also surpassing expectations by 12.56% [6]. - The core local business revenue grew by 17.8% year-on-year to CNY 64.325 billion, with operating profit increasing by 39.1% to CNY 13.491 billion, both exceeding consensus estimates [6]. - New business revenue increased by 19.2% year-on-year to CNY 22.232 billion, with operating losses reduced by 17.54% to CNY -2.273 billion, outperforming expectations [6]. Expense Management - Sales expenses rose by 11.96% year-on-year to CNY 15.55 billion, primarily due to increased promotional and advertising costs. The sales expense ratio decreased by 1 percentage point to 18% due to improved operational efficiency [6]. - R&D expenses increased by 15.44% year-on-year to CNY 5.772 billion, driven by increased investments in AI. The R&D expense ratio slightly decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 6.67% [6]. Business Segments - The food delivery segment is expected to see healthy growth with a focus on refined operations, supported by a planned investment of CNY 100 billion over the next three years [6]. - The flash purchase segment continues to show strong growth, particularly in low-tier markets, with significant increases in order volume during promotional periods [6]. - The in-store travel segment is experiencing robust growth in lower-tier markets, with the launch of the "Meituan Membership" program aimed at enhancing transaction frequency and cross-selling efficiency [6]. Future Outlook - For Q2 2025, the company is expected to maintain its core advantages and solidify its platform ecosystem, despite potential short-term profit fluctuations due to intensified competition in the food delivery sector [6].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.4%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.4%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.5%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.9%, the ChiNext Index increased by 1.1%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.6% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on Wednesday were Beauty Care (+2.6%), Comprehensive (+2.5%), Textile and Apparel (+2.4%), Communication (+1.8%), and Light Industry Manufacturing (+1.6%). The worst-performing sectors were Transportation (-0.6%), National Defense and Military Industry (-0.2%), Public Utilities (-0.1%), Banking (+0.0%), and Oil and Petrochemicals (+0.4%) [3][4] - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,153 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.52 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Company Insights Zhongli Co., Ltd. (603194) - The company is planning to build a factory in Thailand to enhance its global production capacity and has formed a strategic partnership with Jungheinrich to promote the electrification of the global material handling industry [5][6] - The introduction of intelligent handling robots is expected to create new opportunities for growth [6] Energy Metals Industry - The lithium price has dropped to a new low, entering a bottom range, indicating that the lithium industry has entered a "bottom" phase after over three years of adjustment, with price-to-book (PB) ratios at their lowest levels in recent years, highlighting investment value [6][7] - The overall lithium industry is still in a state of oversupply in 2025, but the surplus is expected to narrow to 52,000 tons in 2026. The current low lithium prices may lead to some projects being suspended and new projects being delayed, which could significantly improve the supply-demand balance in 2026 [7]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to generate asset allocation signals, providing directional views on various asset classes such as equities, bonds, and commodities [13][15] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model aggregates multiple macroeconomic factors, including domestic and global indicators such as inflation, monetary policy, credit conditions, and economic sentiment - Each factor is scored, and the scores are combined to derive an overall macro score for each asset class - The scoring results are used to determine the directional view (e.g., bullish, neutral) for each asset class [13][15] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic and data-driven approach to assess macroeconomic conditions and their implications for asset allocation [13] 2. Model Name: US Equity Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model aims to predict the medium-term performance of US equities by analyzing three dimensions: economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress [16] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model assigns equal weights to three sub-indicators: economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress - The latest readings of these indicators are aggregated to calculate a composite timing score - For example, the latest composite score is 52.5, reflecting a moderately positive outlook for US equities [16] - **Model Evaluation**: While the model maintains a bullish view, its effectiveness may be reduced due to data lag, particularly in the context of external shocks like tariff uncertainties [16] 3. Model Name: Gold Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model identifies the timing for gold investments based on macroeconomic risks, such as tariff disputes and rising US debt levels [19] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a timing indicator that oscillates around a zero axis - The indicator reflects the balance of macroeconomic risks and their potential impact on gold prices - Currently, the indicator has fallen near the zero axis due to a temporary reduction in US deficits, but the long-term trend remains upward due to expected fiscal pressures [19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights gold as a strong hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly in high-risk environments [19] 4. Model Name: Crude Oil Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the outlook for crude oil prices based on global economic conditions and supply-demand dynamics [21] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model constructs an oil sentiment index, which currently stands at 0.3 - The index reflects factors such as stable global economic data and a weakening US dollar, balanced against risks from tariff policies and OPEC's production cycle [21] - **Model Evaluation**: The model suggests that crude oil prices are likely to remain range-bound due to mixed macroeconomic signals [21] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Macro Scoring Model - **May Return**: 0.1% - **1-Year Return**: 8.0% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 3.3% [23] 2. US Equity Timing Model - **Latest Composite Score**: 52.5 [16] 3. Gold Timing Model - **Latest Indicator Value**: Near 0 axis [19] 4. Crude Oil Timing Model - **Latest Sentiment Index**: 0.3 [21]

Group 1 - The report highlights the significant impact of tariff policies on global asset pricing, particularly emphasizing the introduction of reciprocal tariffs by the Trump administration, which has exceeded market expectations [13][17][21] - The report discusses the underlying reasons for the aggressive tariff measures, linking them to the U.S. fiscal deficit pressures and the need for revenue generation through tariffs [21][24] - The analysis indicates that the U.S. economy is facing rising recession risks, with inflation expectations increasing sharply, leading to concerns about stagflation [28][29] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent U.S.-China trade negotiations have yielded results that surpass market expectations, with significant tariff reductions agreed upon [39][40] - It emphasizes that China has gained a strategic advantage in the negotiations, reflecting the differing macroeconomic conditions faced by both countries [42] - The report warns of the uncertainties surrounding future tariff policies, suggesting that the recent agreements may be temporary and subject to change based on political dynamics [43] Group 3 - The report outlines the monetary policy measures introduced by the Chinese central bank to support the economy amid external pressures, including a series of interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions [52][56] - It highlights the expected economic recovery in China, driven by these monetary policies and the easing of trade tensions with the U.S. [56][57] - The report suggests that the long-term outlook for the Chinese economy remains positive, with a focus on high-quality development despite short-term uncertainties [49][57]

Market Overview - On June 3, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.43%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.31%, the STAR 50 gained 0.48%, the CSI 1000 was up by 0.72%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.48%, and the Hang Seng Index increased by 1.53% [4] - The best-performing sectors on June 3 were Beauty Care (+3.86%), Textile and Apparel (+2.53%), Comprehensive (+2.02%), Banking (+1.98%), and Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.8%). The worst-performing sectors were Home Appliances (-2.1%), Steel (-1.37%), Coal (-0.84%), Building Materials (-0.52%), and Environmental Protection (-0.4%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on June 3 was 11,638.3 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 3.905 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Important Recommendations Company: Nanjing Bank (601009) - The recommendation logic for Nanjing Bank is based on improved operational momentum, high cost-effectiveness in dividend valuation, and the potential for convertible bonds to enhance growth, with expectations for valuation to return to the top tier of city commercial banks [5] - The bank's performance is expected to show a positive U-shaped trend in 2025, driven by optimized management and improved profitability in both corporate and retail sectors [5] - The target price is set at 15.70 yuan per share, corresponding to a 2025 PB of 1.00 times, indicating a potential upside of 37% [6] Company: Rijing Electronics (603286) - Rijing Electronics has transitioned from motorcycle wiring harnesses to intelligent automotive components, leveraging nearly 30 years of experience [7] - The company is expected to continue upgrading its products, moving from resistive to magnetoelectric solutions, and is building a multi-modal electronic skin product matrix [8] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1,199.28 million yuan, 1,496.20 million yuan, and 1,881.04 million yuan, with growth rates of 23.55%, 24.76%, and 25.72% respectively [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the economic fundamentals in May show signs of recovery, with export-driven improvements potentially leading to synchronized supply and demand, although price levels have not yet rebounded, suggesting a continued divergence in volume and price [2] - The market anticipates an increase in fiscal policy measures [2] - The report highlights that the official PMI data released by the National Bureau of Statistics serves as a driving factor for the current economic outlook [2] Group 2 - The report maintains a neutral stance on the outlook, indicating no significant changes in perspective [2] - It emphasizes the need to observe the volatility of economic fundamentals, particularly the slope and sustainability of foreign trade recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1][24]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1]. - It highlights the recent trends in steel prices and inventory levels, indicating a potential for recovery [3][5]. Price Trends - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3]. - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,130 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3]. - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly drop of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.6% [3]. Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.31 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.9% and a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5]. - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, with a weekly decline of 10.1% and a year-to-date increase of 23.7% [5]. - Iron ore port inventory stands at 13.86 million tons, unchanged week-on-week but up 6.7% year-to-date [5]. Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be stable, with daily average pig iron production expected to maintain current levels [9][12]. - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with apparent demand figures showing resilience [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of bottom positioning during the off-season for the steel industry [1] - The report provides weekly data on steel prices, indicating fluctuations in various steel products and raw materials [3][5] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is reported at 9.31 million tons, with a year-to-date increase of 22.8% [5] - The report highlights the current state of iron ore port inventory at 138.64 million tons, showing a decrease of 6.7% year-to-date [5] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,124, with a weekly decline of 0.7% and a year-to-date increase of 1.0% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) is priced at 3,130 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 0.9% and a year-to-date decline of 8.2% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,160 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.5% and a year-to-date decline of 7.6% [3] - Cold-rolled steel is priced at 3,520 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 3.3% and a year-to-date decline of 14.4% [3] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of five major steel products in social storage is 9.31 million tons, with a weekly increase of 2.9% [5] - The total inventory at steel mills is 4.33 million tons, reflecting a weekly decrease of 10.1% [5] - Iron ore port inventory stands at 138.64 million tons, with a weekly decrease of 0.9% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - The report indicates the weekly production of five major steel products, with a focus on the average daily molten iron output [8] - The report provides insights into the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across China, indicating trends in production capacity utilization [11][13]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets were relatively insufficient, with various broad-based and convertible bond indices showing different trends. Short-term performance may be pressured by tariff disturbances. Since May, the equity market's rise has been characterized by a rebound from oversold conditions. Investors entered the market actively based on odds considerations, and with institutional support, the market continued to rise. However, after the Shanghai Composite Index reached a high on May 14, the logic of the rebound has changed, and market divergence has increased. Considering the uncertainty of future tariff policies, style rotation may accelerate. The dumbbell allocation strategy may continue to be advantageous [1][2][7] - In the short term, the winning probabilities of the equity and convertible bond markets are relatively insufficient and may be pressured by tariff disturbances. The risk of a significant short-term decline is limited, and the market will likely remain volatile. The dividend style benefits from policy support, and the technology growth style has re-entered the institutional view after a valuation correction [2][7] - It is recommended that investors focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. The market style will still tend to be stable. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1 Market Observation - From May 26 to May 30, various broad-based and convertible bond indices showed different trends, with some convertible bond indices leading the gains. Balanced and equity-based valuations were compressed [7] - The market was volatile this week, with insufficient winning probabilities for major indices and significant sector differentiation. Environmental protection, medicine, and military industries led the gains. The small-cap style was dominant. The bond market had low volatility and weak trading sentiment due to the lack of a macro trading theme and limited odds space [2][7] - The equity market may be pressured by tariffs in the short term. The risk of a significant decline is limited, and the market will remain volatile. After the high on May 14, market divergence increased, and trading volume decreased. Style rotation may accelerate, with the dividend style benefiting from policies and the technology growth style re-entering institutional consideration after a valuation correction [2][7] - In the short term, investors are advised to focus on high-grade, fundamentally stable convertible bonds. Strategies should balance defense and theme flexibility. Suggested areas to focus on include the dividend, technology growth, and large consumption sectors [8] 2 Convertible Bond Market Tracking 2.1 Convertible Bond Market Trends - Not provided in the given content 2.2 Individual Convertible Bonds - Not provided in the given content 2.3 Convertible Bond Valuations - Not provided in the given content 2.4 Convertible Bond Prices - Not provided in the given content