证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 5 月 26 日 守正出奇，构建有概率优势的均衡组合 东方红周云投资风格分析 周云，投资框架以内在价值为基础，结合标的在产业周期和市场周期中所处的 位置并综合考量人性的变与不变，构建有概率优势的均衡组合。权益仓位中枢 稳定，仓位择时效果较好。板块配置均衡，行业相对分散，在消费、医药、 TMT 板块上择时收益能力较强。坚守价值，偏好大中盘股票，长期保持均衡 成长风格。个股投资方面，适度分散，多板块贡献选股收益。选股数量多且不 追逐热点，整体换手率偏低。 *风险提示：本报告仅作为投资参考，基金产品过往业绩并不预示其未来表 现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 季燕妮 S1090525040002 jiyanni@cmschina.com.cn 专题报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ 基金经理：基金经理周云，清华大学生物学博士，现任东证资管权益投资决 策委员会委员、公募权益投资一部总经理、基金经理。曾任东证资管业务总 部研究员，东证资管行业研究员、投资主办人。截至 2025Q1 ...

根据招商基础化工数据库统计的 256 个产品价格，周涨幅排名前 5 的产品分 别为：丙烯酸（+10.79%），DEG（+4.56%），活性染料（+4.55%），丁 腈橡胶（+3.99%），对硝基氯化苯（+3.92%）。周跌幅排名前 5 的产品分 别为：液氯（-16.67%），甲酸（-8%），四氯乙烯（-7.22%），新戊二醇 （-7%），三氯甲烷（-6.81%）。 根据招商基础化工数据库统计的 75 个产品价差，周涨幅排名前 5 的产品价 差分别为：PX（石脑油制）价差（+234.31%），丙烯（甲醇制）价差 （+89.21%），乙烯价差（+55.08%），丙烯酸价差（+29.9%），PTA 价差 （+27.07%），周跌幅排名前 5 的产品分别为：三聚磷酸钠价差（- 19.68%），PA6 价差（-18%），丁二烯（碳四制）价差（-13.11%），甲 醇价差（-11.58%），聚羧酸减水剂单体价差（-8.2%）。 证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 26 日 丙烯酸、活性染料价格涨幅居前，建议关注化工新材料 招商化工行业周报 2025 年 5 月第 4 周 周期/化工 本报告阐述了基础化 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment recommendation for the instant retail industry, highlighting its high growth potential and market opportunities [1][3]. Core Insights - The instant retail industry is projected to exceed 1.7 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 20% over the next five years, driven by consumer demand for convenience and the rapid transformation of offline retail to online platforms [1][11][53]. - The platform model in instant retail demonstrates superior traffic advantages and profitability compared to the self-operated model, with major players like Meituan Flash Purchase, JD Instant Delivery, and Ele.me & Taobao Flash Purchase competing effectively [1][8][56]. - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to meet immediate consumer needs, with delivery times typically ranging from 30 minutes to one hour, contrasting with traditional e-commerce which often takes one to three days [30][34]. Summary by Sections Instant Retail Industry Overview - Instant retail is a high-speed online retail format centered around local supply and immediate delivery, with a market size of 650 billion in 2023, reflecting a year-on-year growth rate of 29% [11][14]. - The industry is expected to grow significantly as consumer habits shift towards online shopping and immediate delivery, with 72% of surveyed consumers increasing their use of instant retail services [14][20]. Comparison with Traditional E-commerce - Instant retail excels in speed but is relatively weaker in variety and cost-effectiveness compared to traditional e-commerce, creating a differentiated value proposition [30][52]. - Instant retail's SKU offerings are limited compared to traditional e-commerce platforms, which can offer a vast array of products due to their extensive inventory capabilities [38][39]. Market Size Projections - The report estimates that the instant retail market will reach approximately 6.3 trillion in 2024, with a significant portion attributed to the platform model [53][54]. - By 2030, the market size is expected to exceed 1.7 trillion, driven by increased penetration rates across various product categories [53][54]. Model Comparison - The platform model accounts for about 70% of the market share, benefiting from a light-asset operation that allows for rapid scaling and higher profitability [56][57]. - The self-operated model, while strong in supply chain and quality control, faces limitations in traffic and scale, making it less competitive in terms of growth potential [56][65]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the instant retail space include Meituan Flash Purchase, JD Instant Delivery, and Taobao Flash Purchase, each with distinct competitive advantages [1][8][56]. - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding the competitive dynamics among these platforms, particularly in terms of consumer traffic and delivery efficiency [1][8][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of the primary and secondary market conditions of local government bonds in the week ending May 26, 2025, including net financing, issuance terms, issuance spreads, and trading volume [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market Issuance Situation - **Net Financing**: The issuance volume of local government bonds increased this week, but the net financing decreased. The total issuance volume was 248.5 billion yuan, with a repayment volume of 105.9 billion yuan, resulting in a net financing of 142.6 billion yuan [1][9]. - **Issuance Terms**: The proportion of long - term bond issuance decreased. The 10 - year bonds had the highest issuance proportion (33%), and bonds with a term of 10 years and above accounted for 75%, a decrease from last week [1][12]. - **Debt - Resolution - Related Local Bonds**: Special refinancing bonds worth 25.1 billion yuan were issued this week. As of now, 33 regions have disclosed plans to issue special bonds for replacing hidden debts, totaling 1.6291 trillion yuan [2][15]. - **Issuance Spreads**: The weighted average issuance spread of local government bonds narrowed compared to last week, reaching 11bp. The 30 - year bonds had the highest spread at 18.4bp. Except for the 1 - year bonds, the spreads of other terms narrowed [1][25]. - **Fund - Raising Allocations**: The funds raised from new special bonds in 2025 have mainly been allocated to cold - chain logistics, municipal and industrial park infrastructure (33%), transportation infrastructure (21%), affordable housing projects (12%), and social undertakings (12%). The proportion of land reserve allocations increased by 7.6% compared to 2024 [2][28]. - **Issuance Plan**: As of the end of this week, 34 regions have disclosed their local government bond issuance plans for the second quarter of 2025. Considering the actual issuance volume in April, the total planned issuance volume for the second quarter is expected to reach 2.2 trillion yuan, with 672.7 billion yuan and 855.1 billion yuan planned for May and June respectively [3][30]. 3.2 Secondary Market Situation - **Secondary Spreads**: The 30 - year and 15 - year local government bonds had favorable secondary spreads. The 30 - year and 15 - year bonds had relatively high spreads of 20.1bp and 18.9bp respectively. The 30 - year bond's secondary spread was at a high historical percentile of 89% over the past three years [4][35]. - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume and turnover rate of local government bonds decreased this week. Anhui, Sichuan, and Zhejiang had relatively high turnover rates. The total trading volume was 436 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.86%. Sichuan, Zhejiang, and Anhui had large trading volumes of 42.6 billion yuan, 40.4 billion yuan, and 35.6 billion yuan respectively, and their turnover rates were all above 1.6% [5][40].

证券研究报告 | 策略报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 6 月行业配置关注：产能出清拐点和新消费的崛起 ——行业比较与配置系列（2025 年 6 月） 过去一个月市场在中美经贸摩擦缓和以及降准降息、公募基金改革等政策影响 下，震荡上行，先进制造与内需消费相关行业表现较好。展望 6 月份，外部关税 仍面临不确定性，对国内经济增长带来压力；有待更多政策端的支持实现内部的 稳健增长。行业配置预计主要围绕国内自身发展阶段展开，重点关注产能出清拐 点和新消费的崛起。结合中观景气、盈利能力、筹码分布、估值、交易、周期阶 段和赛道价值等多个维度，本期推荐关注汽车、有色金属（小金属、贵金属）、 国防军工、商贸零售、美容护理、化学制药等。 【本期关注】产能出清拐点和新消费的崛起 风险提示：产业扶持度不及预期，宏观经济波动。 定期报告 相关报告 《5 月行业配置关注：关税冲击 修复与景气改善线索》 《4 月行业配置关注：一季报前 瞻与政策催化》 《3 月行业配置关注：春季行情 的演绎与景气修复的线索》 《2 月行业配置关注：业绩预告 落地后，政策与产业趋势催化下 的行业选择》 《A 股盈利有望止跌回升，配置 聚焦三条线索— ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 1.8% from May 18 to May 24, with notable performances from companies like BYD, which surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales in Europe for the first time, achieving 7,231 units sold in April, a 169% year-on-year increase [1][25]. - The report highlights the launch of Xiaomi's YU7 SUV, equipped with advanced driving assistance features, expected to be officially released in July [1][22]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the automotive sector, particularly in commercial and passenger vehicle segments, with significant weekly gains of 6.5% and 4.3% respectively [10]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance is contrasted with the broader market, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.6% and the Shenzhen Composite Index by 0.7% during the same period [2][8]. - The report notes that the automotive industry has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors, including commercial vehicles and passenger cars, experiencing substantial weekly increases [10]. Individual Stock Performance - The report identifies key individual stocks within the automotive sector, with notable gains for companies such as Wan'an Technology (+19.7%), Demais (+16.8%), and Tianqimo (+16.5%) [3][13]. - Conversely, stocks like Huami New Materials (-17.3%) and Zhaofeng Co. (-15.1%) faced significant declines [3][13]. Recent Industry Developments - The report discusses several recent developments, including Leap Motor's Q1 financial results showing a 187.1% year-on-year revenue increase, and a partnership between Foton Motor and Huawei to accelerate the electrification of heavy-duty trucks [21][24]. - It also mentions the upcoming launch of the Jianghuai Automobile's Zun Jie S800, positioned as a luxury vehicle, set to debut on May 30 [22][25].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for gold and suggests focusing on the rare earth magnetic materials sector [1][6]. Core Views - The metal market is shifting towards a neutral stance due to the arrival of the off-season and declining exports, with macroeconomic issues dominating the recent trends [1]. - There is a strong recommendation for investment in gold and related sectors, including autonomous control technologies and materials for robotics and nuclear fusion [1]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 235 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 4,031.9 billion and a circulating market value of 3,749.0 billion [2]. - The non-ferrous metal index increased by 1.26% this week, ranking third among sectors, with precious metals showing the highest growth at 5.58% [6]. Price Movements - The report notes a 4.78% increase in molybdenum prices due to tight supply and strong demand from steel companies [6]. - Conversely, silicon metal prices fell by 3.16% due to increased supply and weak demand from downstream industries [6]. Key Metal Insights - Copper inventory increased by 0.79 thousand tons to 139.9 thousand tons, indicating a dual weakness in supply and demand [6]. - Aluminum inventory decreased by 24 thousand tons, with ongoing concerns about the impact of Guinea's mining rights revocation on alumina prices [7]. Precious Metals - Gold prices rose to 3,343 USD/ounce, up 5.0%, driven by concerns over U.S. government debt sustainability and geopolitical tensions [7]. - Silver prices also increased by 3.0% to 33.10 USD/ounce [7]. New Materials and Technologies - The report highlights ongoing developments in controlled nuclear fusion, with significant projects underway globally, suggesting investment opportunities in related companies [7]. - The demand for neodymium-iron-boron magnets is expected to rise due to geopolitical tensions and the strategic value of these metals [7].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 总量研究/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 5 月 22 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 5 月 22 日） | 新房（5 | 月 | 1 日-5 月 | 22 日） | 二手房（5 | 月 | 1 日-5 月 | 22 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 4 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 4 月 | | 样本城市 | -10% | -收窄 | 9 PCT | 样本城市 | -8% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | 5% | 转正 | 17 PCT | 一线城市 | 16% | +收窄 | -10 PCT | | （4 城） | | | | （2 城） | | | | | 二线城市 | -19 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company [2][6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 24%, and an adjusted net profit of 360 million yuan, marking a turnaround from a net loss of 460 million yuan in the same period last year [1][5] - The gross profit reached 2.539 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 36.3%, an increase of 8 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a significant improvement in profitability [5][6] - The company’s operational cash flow was 1.302 billion yuan, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [5] Revenue Breakdown - Value-added services revenue was 2.807 billion yuan, up 11% year-on-year, driven by growth in live streaming and membership services [5] - Advertising revenue reached 1.998 billion yuan, a 20% increase, primarily due to growth in performance-based advertising [5] - Mobile gaming revenue surged to 1.731 billion yuan, a remarkable 76% increase, attributed to the strong performance of the exclusive SLG game "Three Kingdoms: Strategize the World" [5] - Revenue from IP derivatives and other businesses was 467 million yuan, down 4% year-on-year [5] User Engagement and Content Strategy - The company reported daily active users of 107 million and monthly active users of 368 million, with an average daily usage time of 108 minutes [5] - The company successfully positioned itself as the exclusive bullet screen video partner for the Spring Festival Gala, attracting over 100 million viewers on New Year's Eve [5] - The company continues to focus on high-quality original content, with notable successes in various series and animations [5] Financial Projections - The company expects revenues to reach 30.856 billion yuan, 34.559 billion yuan, and 37.324 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding adjusted net profits of 1.965 billion yuan, 2.856 billion yuan, and 3.696 billion yuan [7][9] - The projected PE ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 28.9, 19.9, and 15.4, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [7][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robotics industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals and expected performance exceeding the benchmark index [5]. Core Insights - The humanoid robotics industry is actively pushing towards commercialization, with significant developments such as the launch of the Lingxi X2 humanoid robot by Zhiyuan Robotics and various startups securing funding for their projects [9]. - The industry is transitioning from experimental phases to mass production, although full commercialization will require advancements in intelligence and cost reduction [9]. - Investment opportunities are highlighted in supply chain enhancements and companies focusing on embodied intelligence technologies [10][11]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Commercialization Progress - Zhiyuan Robotics announced the commercial launch of the Lingxi X2 humanoid robot, targeting a B to B to C model for product delivery, with expectations of significant shipments by late 2026 [1]. - Persona AI secured $27 million in Pre-seed funding to develop humanoid robots for the shipbuilding industry, marking a strategic partnership with Hyundai Heavy Industries [2]. Section 2: Industry Events - The CMG World Robot Competition will take place in Hangzhou, featuring humanoid robots in combat events, showcasing their capabilities in traditional sports [3]. Section 3: Financing Activities - Matrix Industrial completed a multi-million A round financing aimed at advancing flexible tactile sensors and "electronic skin" products [4]. - A comprehensive list of financing events in the humanoid robotics sector for 2025 indicates a robust investment landscape, with various companies raising significant capital for development [14][15][16]. Section 4: Market Performance - The humanoid robotics sector has shown positive market performance, with notable stock price increases for key players in the industry [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring supply chain investment opportunities as the industry evolves [9].