1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The recent rise in US Treasury yields is driven by concerns about US fiscal sustainability, inflation expectations pushed up by US tariff policies, and a weakening demand for US Treasuries. Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has caused short - term upward pressure on yields, and the US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May. The demand for US Treasuries has weakened, especially in the long - term bond primary market, leading to a steeper yield curve [2][10][15]. - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. The domestic bond market is mainly driven by domestic demand and is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose [3][24]. - In the bond market trading strategy, the approach of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops is recommended. Attention can be paid to the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds. Currently, the new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective, and the new - old bond spread of the 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 is expected to widen further [4][27][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 1. Reasons, Outlook, and Impact of the Rise in US Treasury Yields - **Reasons for the Rise in US Treasury Yields** - Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating has increased market concerns about US debt risks, causing short - term upward pressure on yields [2][10]. - The US tariff policy has increased short - term inflation risks. The uncertainty of the policy has pushed up the inflation expectations of the US household sector, with the 1 - year inflation expectation reaching 7.3% in May, making it difficult for long - term Treasury yields to decline [2][10]. - The demand for US Treasuries has weakened. The primary market subscription enthusiasm has declined, especially for long - term bonds. As of May 9, the subscription multiple of long - term Treasury bonds in May dropped to 1.97 times from 2.33 times in April, and the weaker long - end subscription sentiment has steepened the yield curve [15]. - **Outlook for US Treasury Yields** - In the short term, US Treasury yields are expected to oscillate at a high level. The high uncertainty of the US tariff policy, persistent inflation expectations, concerns about US fiscal sustainability, and weakening demand for US Treasuries make it difficult for yields to decline. However, the pressure for a significant further increase in yields is controllable due to the possibility of Fed rate cuts and a weakening US economy [24]. - **Impact on the Domestic Bond Market** - The impact of rising US Treasury yields on the domestic bond market is limited. Domestic institutions are the main players in the domestic bond market, and the monetary policy is domestically focused and expected to remain loose. The domestic bond market is expected to be moderately strong with an oscillatory trend [3][24]. 2. Bond Market Trading Strategies - Adopt the strategy of taking profits on price increases and adding positions on price drops [4][27]. - Focus on the allocation value of 6 - 7 - year China Development Bank bonds [4][27]. - The new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and new 30 - year Treasury bonds are more cost - effective. The 30 - year Treasury bond 2500002 has become an active bond after its listing, and its new - old bond spread is expected to widen further as there are still 3 additional issuances planned [4][27][28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the outdoor apparel industry [5] Core Insights - The outdoor apparel market in China is experiencing high demand and growth potential, with a significant gap in penetration compared to mature markets [1][2] - The market is expected to expand rapidly as international brands enter China, enhancing consumer awareness and driving industry growth [4][67] Industry Overview - The outdoor apparel market in China is projected to grow from CNY 539 billion in 2019 to CNY 1,027 billion by 2024, with a CAGR of 14% [15][19] - The CAGR for outdoor apparel is expected to increase to 15% from 2025 to 2029 [2][15] - Outdoor clothing accounts for approximately 70% of the outdoor apparel market, with a CAGR of 13.7% from 2019 to 2024 [2][19] - The core product category is jackets and pants, which have a CAGR of 18% from 2019 to 2024 [2][21] Market Structure - The top ten brands in the outdoor apparel market hold a combined market share of 27% as of 2024, indicating a fragmented market with significant growth opportunities for leading brands [3][45] - The competition in outdoor footwear is less intense, dominated by a few key players such as Salomon, HOKA, and ON [3][46] - High-end brands are underrepresented in the Chinese market, with few influential players [3][49] Development Direction - The demand for outdoor apparel is primarily driven by the 25-34 age group, which constitutes over 40% of consumers [4][67] - New international brands are entering the market, including Haglöfs, Norrøna, and Marmot, which are expected to enhance consumer recognition and accelerate market penetration [4][75] - The product focus is shifting towards functional and stylish outdoor apparel, with an increasing emphasis on outdoor+ lifestyle products [4][78] - Online sales channels are experiencing rapid growth, with a CAGR of 20% from 2019 to 2024, significantly outpacing offline sales [2][26] Key Company Changes - Anta Sports has announced plans to acquire Wolf Claw to enhance its outdoor brand portfolio [4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 美国加密市场新政下的历史突破 ——加密资产系列报告之二 5 月，比特币价格突破 11 万美元/枚，创新历史高点，投资者对加密资产行业 信心提升。比特币曾经被认为是"数字黄金" ，但是历史上其与黄金走势并 不一致，甚至出现此消彼长的价格走势，说明比特币并非是对黄金的简单替 代，而是自有其运行逻辑。近期，随着 SEC（美国证券交易委员会）新主席 的上任，美国将迎来加密资产宽松监管时期，该市场即将迎来重大政策调整。 本文将从比特币与黄金的关系与美国 SEC 工作动态两个维度来分析加密资产 市场。 核心观点： 结论与启示： 比特币的避险属性尚未像黄金一样得到大范围认可，主要原因包括市场规模 小、缺乏机构投资者和央行持仓、价格高波动性与情绪驱动以及监管与安全性 不确定，价值贮藏属性尚处于被验证阶段，但比特币去中心化和抗审查特性正 构建另类避险逻辑。 历史上，比特币与黄金价格走势也不尽相同，相关性呈现阶段性变化，两种资 产在功能定位、市场结构和投资者心态层面存在较大差异。2025 年黄金延续传 统避险角色，比特币更多反映监管政策预期与对美宏观经济情绪，二者 ...

国内方面，1）从近期外贸高频数据来看，所谓关税降温后的"抢出口"看似 仍不成立，更接近关税大幅降温后的"出口修复"或此前因高关税导致的挤压 商品的"补出口"；2）5 月 25 日当周上中游开工率整体转弱，看似是提前进 入弱季节性；3）公积金利率下调后一线城市商品房销售走强，成为近期经济 的一大亮点，但二手房交易仍然偏弱；4）资产端：市场或进入平淡期，相对 而言继续看好哑铃型策略和新消费。 海外方面，1）美国 OBBB 法案众议院版本落地，后续仍有较大不确定性。当 下美国财政宽松力度预计将向参议院为代表的宽松派的目标靠拢，但下一届政 府是否能如特朗普所愿选择财政紧缩高度存疑，目前我们看到的数字可能仍然 是被低估的。2）市场会如何定价减税对经济的提振和财政可持续性的担忧？ 若 6 月起美国与部分非美经济体达成贸易共识甚至找到美债"买盘"，美债迎 来配置价值，美股性价比提升。3）日债被抛售是否危机前兆？疫后全球因供 应链冲击通胀抬头，央行 QE 推升资产价格循环被打破，短期风险仍可控、但 康波萧条期最终需要出清破局。 2）市场会如何定价减税对经济的提振和财政可持续性的担忧？始于 4 月 9 日美国对非美关税暂缓带动 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious outlook with potential for gradual recovery in the market [3]. Core Insights - The real estate market continues to experience low-level fluctuations, with construction completions showing a year-on-year decline, indicating a challenging environment for developers [1][42]. - New construction starts are expected to gradually decrease in their rate of decline throughout the first half of 2025, driven by stabilizing housing demand and strategic adjustments by developers [2][43]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal and optimizing existing property acquisition strategies [40][41]. Summary by Sections Sales and Market Performance - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of sales area adjusted for the base period was -2.1%, reflecting ongoing low market activity and suppressed buyer sentiment [7][13]. - The total sales area for January to April was 28.26 million square meters, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.8% [9][14]. - The sales amount for April was 270.35 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% [9][14]. Construction and Investment - The new construction area in April saw a year-on-year decline of 22.1%, with expectations for a gradual narrowing of this decline in the coming months [2][43]. - The total investment in real estate development for April was 277.30 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [9][12]. - The completion area in April decreased by 27.9% year-on-year, indicating a faster-than-expected decline in construction completions [42][46]. Financial Indicators - The funding index for the real estate sector showed a downward trend, currently at a historically low level, suggesting potential improvements in cash flow for some companies [2][9]. - The funding sources for real estate development in April totaled 325.96 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 4.1% [12][41]. Price Trends - The new home prices in 70 cities fell by 0.12% month-on-month in April, with an increasing number of cities experiencing price declines [10][11]. - The average price of new homes was 9,566 yuan per square meter, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.4% [12][14].

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 从 300 质量成长走强看 A 股核心资产崛起 ——A 股投资策略周报（0525） 5 月以来，A 股出现了不一样的变化，300 质量成长等质量类指数开始走强，以长 期内在回报为基础进行投资，买入高自由现金流收益率，高 SIRR 的股票的投资理 念逐渐被市场接受。随着经济稳定，龙头上市公司经营趋于稳定，现金流量净额开 始稳定增长，资本开支稳定下降，自由现金流收益率持续攀升，未来两年 A 股权重 指数有望迎来重估。当前小盘因子交易集中度达到极限，量化新规即将实施，监管 加大对操纵市场的处罚宣导，公募长期战胜基准也需要靠买入公司的内在价值的积 累，以上均有助于市场回归大盘、质量。当前弱美元趋势已成，人民币持续走强， 以 300 质量成长为代表的核心资产和质量因子有望再度崛起。 定期报告 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 3、《PC 其他报告 31 重新提 相关报告 《首批浮动费率基金申报，4 月金 融数据有何影响——A 股投资策 略周报（0517）》 《〈推动公募基金高质量发展行 动方案〉对 A 股可能的影响——A 股投资策略周报（0510）》 《四月政治局 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 05 月 25 日 谷歌 I/O 大会跟踪，重点关注大模型多模态能力提升 计算机周观察 20250525 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 5 月 21 日，谷歌发布以人工智能为核心的一系列重大更新，其中 AI 搜索引擎 和多模态大模型亮眼，国内昆仑万维于 5 月 22 日发布天工超级智能体，聚焦于 生产力场景。大模型多模态能力持续提升，建议关注。 ❑ 风险提示：贸易摩擦持续升级；供应链风险；行业竞争加剧风险。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 284 | 5.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3281.4 | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2864.2 | 3.7 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -1.0 -3.7 34.5 相对表现 -3.5 -4.1 27.9 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 May/24 Sep/24 Jan/25 Apr/25 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《从科技龙头厂商财报看 AI 产业 ...

证券研究报告 | 金融工程 2025 年 5 月 25 日 市场震荡回调，继续维持观望 ——A 股趋势与风格定量观察 20250525 1. 当前市场观察 ❑ 本周市场整体震荡下行，大盘价值风格占优。具体来看，万得全 A 指数下跌 约 0.63%，上证 50、沪深 300、中证 1000 分别下跌约 0.12%、0.12%、 1.22%，国证成长指数下跌约 0.70%，国证价值指数上涨约 0.13%。 ❑ 短期我们认为仍需保持观望，除了交易情绪并未明显修复、基本面指标仍有 待观察外，周内关税风险再度上升压制市场表现。 1）交易情绪仍待改善。本周交易量能指标分位数从上周的 28.62%进一步下 降至 23.41%，当前仍处于偏弱区间。此外，前两周市场连续周内高开但后续 走势偏弱，历史相同情况发生后，万得全 A 指数 20 日平均收益率为-1.31% 且胜率仅为 39.13%。二者都表明当前市场的交易情绪或仍待改善。 3）关税风险仍有反复。本周下半周全球关税风险再度上升，考虑到美方的 善变和不确定性，当前市场更倾向于交易波动而非趋势。在内外部环境未有 明确的变化方向之前，市场或仍将维持震荡行情。 2. 市场最新观 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall increase of 1.8% from May 18 to May 24, with notable performances from companies like BYD, which surpassed Tesla in electric vehicle sales in Europe for the first time, achieving 7,231 units sold in April, a 169% year-on-year increase [1][25]. - The report highlights the launch of Xiaomi's YU7 SUV, equipped with advanced driving assistance features, expected to be officially released in July [1][22]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the automotive sector, particularly in commercial and passenger vehicle segments, with significant weekly gains of 6.5% and 4.3% respectively [10]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance is contrasted with the broader market, where the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.6% and the Shenzhen Composite Index by 0.7% during the same period [2][8]. - The report notes that the automotive industry has shown resilience, with various sub-sectors, including commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles, experiencing notable weekly increases [10]. Individual Stock Performance - The report identifies several individual stocks with significant movements, including Wan'an Technology (+19.7%), Demais (+16.8%), and Tianqimo (+16.5%) [3][13]. - Conversely, stocks such as Huami New Materials (-17.3%), Zhaofeng Co. (-15.1%), and Riying Electronics (-12.8%) faced declines [3][13]. Recent Industry Developments - The report discusses the collaboration between Foton Motor and Huawei Digital Energy to accelerate the electrification of heavy-duty trucks, aiming to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs in the logistics sector [21]. - It also mentions the upcoming launch of the Zun Jie S800, a luxury vehicle developed in partnership with Huawei, set to debut on May 30 [25][22]. - The report highlights the introduction of new standards for solid-state batteries, which could significantly impact the automotive industry's future direction [24].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: This model uses kernel regression algorithms to identify support and resistance levels in interest rate trends. It integrates signals from long, medium, and short investment cycles to form a composite timing strategy[10][23]. - **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Signal Identification**: - Use kernel regression to capture the shape of interest rate trends and identify support and resistance levels[10]. - Classify signals into long-cycle (monthly frequency), medium-cycle (bi-weekly frequency), and short-cycle (weekly frequency)[10]. 2. **Signal Aggregation**: - Count the number of upward and downward breakthroughs across the three cycles. - If at least two cycles show the same directional breakthrough, the composite signal is determined based on the majority[10]. 3. **Portfolio Construction**: - Allocate assets based on the composite signal: - Full allocation to long-duration bonds if at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs and the trend is not upward. - Equal allocation to medium- and long-duration bonds if at least two cycles show downward breakthroughs but the trend is upward. - Full allocation to short-duration bonds if at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs and the trend is not downward. - Equal allocation to medium- and short-duration bonds if at least two cycles show upward breakthroughs but the trend is downward. - Equal allocation across short-, medium-, and long-duration bonds in other cases[23]. 4. **Stop-Loss Mechanism**: - Adjust holdings to equal allocation if the daily excess return of the portfolio falls below -0.5%[23]. 5. **Benchmark**: - The benchmark is an equal-duration strategy with one-third allocation to short-, medium-, and long-duration bonds[23]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures multi-cycle resonance in interest rate trends and provides a systematic approach to timing strategies[23]. --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Price-Volume Multi-Cycle Timing Strategy - **Long-Term Performance (2007.12.31 to Latest Report Date)**: - Annualized Return: 6.19% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.53% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2.26 - Excess Annualized Return: 1.67% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 1.18[23][24] - **Short-Term Performance (Since 2023 Year-End)**: - Annualized Return: 7.5% - Maximum Drawdown: 1.61% - Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 6.43 - Excess Annualized Return: 2.35% - Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio: 2.47[23][24] - **Historical Success Rates (18 Years)**: - Absolute Return > 0: 100% - Excess Return > 0: 100%[24] - **Year-by-Year Performance**: - 2008: Absolute Return 17.08%, Excess Return 4.41% - 2009: Absolute Return 1.03%, Excess Return 1.20% - 2010: Absolute Return 4.59%, Excess Return 2.49% - 2011: Absolute Return 7.25%, Excess Return 2.10% - 2012: Absolute Return 4.33%, Excess Return 0.68% - 2013: Absolute Return 0.91%, Excess Return 1.67% - 2014: Absolute Return 13.47%, Excess Return 2.67% - 2015: Absolute Return 11.14%, Excess Return 2.31% - 2016: Absolute Return 3.20%, Excess Return 1.76% - 2017: Absolute Return 1.11%, Excess Return 1.38% - 2018: Absolute Return 11.16%, Excess Return 2.36% - 2019: Absolute Return 6.24%, Excess Return 1.44% - 2020: Absolute Return 3.46%, Excess Return 0.47% - 2021: Absolute Return 5.40%, Excess Return 0.33% - 2022: Absolute Return 3.62%, Excess Return 0.47% - 2023: Absolute Return 4.81%, Excess Return 0.46% - 2024: Absolute Return 9.35%, Excess Return 2.52% - 2025: Absolute Return 1.14%, Excess Return 0.75%[24][27] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structural Indicators (Level, Term, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: These factors decompose the yield-to-maturity (YTM) data of government bonds into three structural dimensions: level, term, and convexity. The factors are analyzed from a mean-reversion perspective[7][9]. - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. **Data Transformation**: - Convert the YTM data of 1- to 10-year government bonds into three structural indicators: - **Level**: Average YTM across all maturities - **Term**: Difference between long-term and short-term YTM - **Convexity**: Curvature of the yield curve[7]. 2. **Historical Percentile Analysis**: - Calculate the rolling 3-, 5-, and 10-year percentiles for each structural indicator to assess their relative positions[8][9]. - **Factor Evaluation**: These factors provide insights into the current state of the interest rate market and its deviation from historical norms[7][9]. --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Structural Indicators - **Level**: - Current Value: 1.58% - Weekly Change: -0.24BP - Historical Percentiles: 10% (3-Year), 6% (5-Year), 3% (10-Year)[9] - **Term**: - Current Value: 0.27% - Weekly Change: +4.42BP - Historical Percentiles: 7% (3-Year), 4% (5-Year), 8% (10-Year)[9] - **Convexity**: - Current Value: -0.04% - Weekly Change: -6.28BP - Historical Percentiles: 8% (3-Year), 5% (5-Year), 5% (10-Year)[9]