Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the automotive industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The automotive industry experienced an overall decline of 0.6% from July 6 to July 12, 2025, with a notable increase in the dealer inventory warning index to 56.6%, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 5.7 percentage points and a month-on-month increase of 3.9 percentage points [1][2]. - New vehicle launches include the Li Auto i8, set to debut on July 29 with a starting price of 350,000 yuan, and the Leap Motor B01, which will be launched in late July with a price range of 105,800 to 135,800 yuan [1][32]. Market Performance Overview - The automotive sector's performance was negative, with the CS Automotive index down by 0.6%, while the Shanghai A index rose by 1.1% and the Shenzhen A index increased by 2.0% during the same period [2][8]. - Among the automotive sub-sectors, the automotive services sector saw a weekly increase of 3.1%, while both passenger and commercial vehicle segments experienced declines of 1.4% and 1.0%, respectively [10][2]. Individual Stock Performance - Notable stock performances included Changchun Yitong (+17.4%), Jiuling Technology (+14.5%), and Fosa Technology (+13.7%), while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Quan Feng Automotive (-9.0%), and Ningbo Fangzheng (-8.0%) faced significant declines [14][18]. - Among covered stocks, Yunyi Electric (+6.6%), Huawei Technology (+6.1%), and Zhongrong Electric (+5.8%) showed positive movements, while Qin'an Co. (-10.0%), Xinquan Co. (-6.7%), and Rongtai Co. (-5.6%) experienced losses [18][14]. Recent Industry Developments - BYD has achieved L4-level smart parking capabilities, promising full liability coverage for accidents caused by its smart parking system [25]. - Chery Automobile plans to launch two new SUV models in the UK market, enhancing its competitive presence in Europe [24]. - The report highlights strategic partnerships, including a collaboration between CATL and Geely to deepen cooperation in battery technology and supply chain management [29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong buy recommendation for key companies in the industry, including Jingyuan International, Shenzhou International, and Huali Group, based on their growth potential and market positioning [4][34]. Core Insights - The industry is experiencing a marginal improvement in revenue growth for leading manufacturers, with a positive outlook for NIKE as inventory and channel conditions improve, suggesting a potential for sequential sales growth [1][3]. - The U.S. retail market has shown signs of recovery, with a positive growth trend in terminal retail sales and stable inventory levels, while Southeast Asian textile exports remain robust [2][11]. - New product launches from major international brands in sports fashion and outdoor segments are expected to increase, with a focus on market feedback for these new offerings [15][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Prosperity Analysis - Demand Side: U.S. terminal retail sales have shown recovery in Q2 2025, with healthy inventory levels. Vietnam's textile exports increased by 16% year-on-year in June 2025, while footwear exports decreased by 3% [2][13]. - Industry Trends: Major international brands are gradually launching new products in July, with an emphasis on monitoring market responses [15]. Supply Chain Tracking - Brand Side: NIKE's revenue for FY25Q4 was $11.1 billion, down 12% year-on-year, but inventory clearance and channel expansion are progressing well, with expectations for sequential improvement in sales [3][17]. - Manufacturing Side: Revenue growth for leading manufacturers showed marginal improvement in June, with specific companies reporting varied performance, such as Yuyuan's manufacturing business up by 9.4% and Yuchi's outdoor footwear revenue up by 23% [24][29]. Investment Recommendations - Jingyuan International is recommended for its diverse product range and operational efficiency, with a current market valuation corresponding to a PE of 8.5X for 2025 [4][34]. - Shenzhou International is highlighted for its recovery in capacity utilization and production efficiency, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 12X for 2025 [4][34]. - Huali Group is noted for its optimized customer structure and ongoing capacity expansion, with a market valuation corresponding to a PE of 15X for 2025 [4][34].

Domestic Economic Insights - The economic growth rate in the first half of the year significantly exceeded the annual target, providing a window for structural adjustments in policies[1] - Recent policies such as the suspension of "national subsidies" and the halt of "high-interest high-return" policies have notably impacted the automotive supply chain, with both supply and demand showing clear signs of decline[1] - As of July 13, the operating rate of semi-steel tires is significantly lower than the same period last year, and the growth rate of automobile sales continues to decline[1] Export and Trade Dynamics - High-frequency data indicates that June exports may still be relatively strong, with container throughput rebounding since late June, likely related to the upcoming suspension of tariffs on August 10[1] - The potential for short-term exemptions or reductions in tariffs on fentanyl between China and Mexico has emerged, indicating a trend towards cooperation[1] Global Market Trends - The current "strong US stock market + weak dollar" scenario is expected to boost risk appetite and liquidity in non-US equities, with the dollar remaining weak as long as it stays within the 95-100 range[2] - Global equity markets have shown a rotation pattern this year, with indices like Germany's DAX and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Technology leading the way, suggesting a potential upward breakout for the Hang Seng Technology index in the coming weeks[2] Key Upcoming Events - Important dates to watch include the release of the US June CPI data on July 15, Q2 earnings reports for US stocks from mid-July to early August, and changes in US tariffs on August 1 and 10[1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant year-on-year decline in both new and second-hand housing transaction areas, with the decline rate expanding [2][10] - The report indicates that the overall demand for new and second-hand homes may stabilize due to potential decreases in mortgage rates, which could narrow the gap between net rental returns and mortgage rates [6] - The report emphasizes the importance of urban renewal and the optimization of existing policies to stabilize the real estate market [6] Summary by Sections New Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in new housing transaction areas has expanded, with a reported decrease of 24% for sample cities [4] - The decline in new housing transactions is more pronounced in first-tier cities, with a 21% decrease [4][10] Second-Hand Housing Transactions - The year-on-year decline in second-hand housing transaction areas has also expanded, with a reported decrease of 10% for sample cities [4] - First-tier cities have seen a shift to negative growth in second-hand housing transactions, with a 10% decline [4] Market Trends and Indicators - The average number of viewings for second-hand homes in 12 sample cities has decreased by 8.3% month-on-month [5][45] - The liquidity outlook indicates an expansion in macro-level liquidity as of July 2025 [5][49] Land Acquisition - The cumulative land transaction area from January to June 2025 has seen a year-on-year decline of 5%, while the average transaction price has increased by 33% [24] - The report notes a decrease in the proportion of listings with price increases, indicating a potential cooling in market expectations [50] Inventory and Unsold Properties - The report indicates a marginal increase in the unsold inventory cycle for newly acquired and unsold properties compared to April [34] - The unsold inventory cycle for newly constructed properties in first-tier cities has decreased, while it has increased in second and third-tier cities [36]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Recommended" based on positive fundamental outlook and expected outperformance of the industry index compared to the benchmark index [3][8]. Core Insights - The report highlights an increase in the dry bulk market's performance, a focus on the valuation of Hong Kong infrastructure assets, an upward trend in the aviation industry's fundamentals for 2025-2026, and potential price competition and valuation recovery in the express delivery sector for 2025 [1][7][18][20]. Shipping - The container shipping market shows signs of recovery with slight price increases on the US routes, while the dry bulk market, particularly for Panamax vessels, has seen a notable rise in rates due to increased demand from coal and grain shipments [7][11][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade agreements between the US and other countries, which could impact shipping volumes [12][16]. Infrastructure - The report indicates that Hong Kong infrastructure assets still have room for valuation improvement, with stable earnings and dividend expectations from leading highway assets [18]. - The yield on 10Y and 30Y government bonds has slightly increased, suggesting continued investment interest in dividend-paying infrastructure assets [18]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a growth rate exceeding 20% in 2024, with a continued double-digit growth forecast for 2025 [20]. - The report notes a recent recovery in express delivery prices following a period of intense price competition, supported by regulatory measures against "involution" in the industry [20]. Aviation - Key performance indicators in the aviation sector are on the rise, with passenger volumes increasing and a low growth rate in supply, indicating a potential stabilization in revenue levels [21][74]. - The report recommends several airlines based on their performance metrics, including China Southern Airlines and Air China [21]. Logistics - The logistics sector shows a slight increase in cross-border transport volumes, with stable short-haul freight rates [22][87]. - The report highlights the potential for significant non-operating income for China National Foreign Trade Transportation Group in 2025, which could positively impact dividends [22].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: Short-term Quantitative Timing Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation metrics, sentiment indicators, and liquidity metrics to generate short-term timing signals for A-share market trends [17][18]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Manufacturing PMI: Latest value is 49.70, corresponding to the 44.92% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal. - RMB medium-to-long-term loan growth rate: Latest value is 6.78%, corresponding to the 0.00% percentile over the past 5 years. Cautious signal. - M1 growth rate (HP filter detrended): Latest value is 0.00%, corresponding to the 77.97% percentile over the past 5 years. Optimistic signal [17]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Median: Latest value is 41.03, corresponding to the 94.79% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal. - PB Median: Latest value is 2.73, corresponding to the 76.34% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal [17]. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Beta Dispersion: Latest value is -0.59%, corresponding to the 40.68% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal. - Volume Sentiment Score: Latest value is 0.59, corresponding to the 90.82% percentile over the past 5 years. Optimistic signal. - Volatility: Latest value is 10.41% (annualized), corresponding to the 4.55% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal [18]. 4. **Liquidity Metrics**: - Monetary Rate Indicator: Latest value is -0.10, corresponding to the 33.90% percentile over the past 5 years. Optimistic signal. - Exchange Rate Expectation Indicator: Latest value is -0.09%, corresponding to the 40.68% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal. - 5-day average net financing: Latest value is 25.53 billion RMB, corresponding to the 84.20% percentile over the past 5 years. Neutral signal [18]. **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures short-term market trends and provides actionable signals for timing decisions [17][18]. - **Model Name**: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses a quantitative economic mid-cycle analysis framework to determine the relative attractiveness of growth versus value styles based on profitability, interest rate, and credit cycles [28][29]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profitability Cycle Slope: Current level is high, favoring growth. - Interest Rate Cycle Level: Current level is high, favoring value. - Credit Cycle Trend: Current trend is weakening, favoring value [28]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Spread Percentile: Current value is 14.87%, indicating mean reversion upward, favoring growth. - PB Spread Percentile: Current value is 34.18%, indicating mean reversion upward, favoring growth [28]. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread Percentile: Current value is 21.09%, indicating low turnover spread, favoring value. - Volatility Spread Percentile: Current value is 22.55%, indicating low volatility spread, favoring balanced allocation [29]. **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to style rotation, enhancing returns compared to equal-weighted style allocation [28][29]. - **Model Name**: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates the relative attractiveness of small-cap versus large-cap styles based on profitability, interest rate, and credit cycles, as well as valuation and sentiment metrics [33][34]. **Model Construction Process**: 1. **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profitability Cycle Slope: Current level is high, favoring small-cap. - Interest Rate Cycle Level: Current level is high, favoring large-cap. - Credit Cycle Trend: Current trend is weakening, favoring large-cap [33]. 2. **Valuation Metrics**: - PE Spread Percentile: Current value is 80.35%, indicating mean reversion downward, favoring large-cap. - PB Spread Percentile: Current value is 96.77%, indicating mean reversion downward, favoring large-cap [34]. 3. **Sentiment Indicators**: - Turnover Spread Percentile: Current value is 64.93%, indicating high turnover spread, favoring small-cap. - Volatility Spread Percentile: Current value is 65.44%, indicating mean reversion downward, favoring large-cap [34]. **Model Evaluation**: The model balances small-cap and large-cap allocations effectively, providing consistent returns over time [33][34]. - **Model Name**: Four-Style Rotation Model **Model Construction Idea**: The model combines insights from growth-value and small-cap-large-cap rotation models to allocate across four styles: small-cap growth, small-cap value, large-cap growth, and large-cap value [36][37]. **Model Construction Process**: - Allocation Recommendation: Small-cap growth 12.5%, small-cap value 37.5%, large-cap growth 12.5%, large-cap value 37.5% [36]. **Model Evaluation**: The model achieves superior returns compared to equal-weighted allocation across four styles, with consistent performance over time [36][37]. Model Backtesting Results - **Short-term Quantitative Timing Model**: - Annualized Return: 16.71% - Annualized Volatility: 14.56% - Maximum Drawdown: 27.70% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.9969 - Monthly Win Rate: 69.74% - Quarterly Win Rate: 69.23% [19][22][25] - **Growth-Value Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 11.73% - Annualized Volatility: 20.82% - Maximum Drawdown: 43.07% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5416 - Monthly Win Rate: 58.28% - Quarterly Win Rate: 60.78% [29][32] - **Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 12.21% - Annualized Volatility: 22.73% - Maximum Drawdown: 50.65% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5336 - Monthly Win Rate: 60.93% - Quarterly Win Rate: 58.82% [34][35] - **Four-Style Rotation Model**: - Annualized Return: 13.25% - Annualized Volatility: 21.56% - Maximum Drawdown: 47.91% - Sharpe Ratio: 0.5931 - Monthly Win Rate: 59.60% - Quarterly Win Rate: 62.75% [36][37]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's fundamentals [15]. Core Insights - The global demand gap for corn and wheat continues to expand, while soybean supply remains ample [1]. - The USDA report indicates a downward revision in U.S. corn production expectations, but global production is still expected to be high, leading to an increased production gap for the 2025/26 season [2][3]. - For wheat, global production is projected to increase, but the demand gap is also expected to widen, with a notable increase in total consumption [8]. - The soybean market shows a slight increase in global production expectations, but supply remains relatively loose, with domestic demand in the U.S. improving [10][11]. Summary by Sections Corn - The USDA report revised the 2025/26 global corn production down by approximately 2.32 million tons to 1.264 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2]. - The U.S. corn production is expected to decrease by 1.15 million bushels, with total demand projected to reach a record 1.276 billion tons, resulting in a production gap of 12.1 million tons [3][6]. - The global corn ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to decline to 21.3%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2][6]. Wheat - The global wheat production forecast for 2025/26 has been slightly revised down by 40,000 tons to 808 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.1% [8][9]. - Total global wheat consumption is expected to rise by 800,000 tons to 811 million tons, leading to an expanded production gap of 2.07 million tons [8]. - The global wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected to be 32.3%, down from the previous year [8][9]. Soybeans - The USDA report raised the global soybean production forecast by 860,000 tons to 428 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [10][12]. - U.S. soybean production is expected to decrease by 140,000 tons to 11.8 million tons, while domestic demand is projected to increase due to higher biodiesel usage [11][13]. - The global soybean ending stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 29.7%, down from the previous year [10][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a favorable outlook for international corn and wheat prices, driven by expanding demand gaps and supply dynamics [15]. - The focus on food security is emphasized, with recommendations for companies involved in seed production and agricultural technology, particularly those benefiting from the commercialization of genetically modified corn [15].

Macro Insights - The macro policy for the second half of the year may involve non-traditional measures, with a focus on price stability and the marginal improvement of asset prices, particularly in equity products [2][32] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to drive companies to reduce capital expenditures and clear excess capacity, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [3][44] Strategy Insights - The "anti-involution" trend is identified as a key driver for a bullish market, with high-quality stocks likely to play a crucial role in pushing indices higher [3][44] - AI is recognized as a core driver of the current technological revolution, creating investment opportunities across multiple industries in the A-share market [3][44] - Key sectors to watch in July include solid-state batteries, domestic computing power, non-bank financials, defense and military, and innovative pharmaceuticals, all showing signs of marginal improvement [3][44] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3510.18, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.09% [5][7] - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10696.10, with a weekly increase of 1.78% [8] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.7% in June, indicating a slight recovery, while the construction PMI significantly improved to 52.8% due to accelerated infrastructure projects [12][13] - Consumer spending showed mixed results, with significant growth in automobile and home appliance sales driven by government subsidies, while other sectors like clothing and cosmetics remained weak [13][14] Industry Trends - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with declining sales and investment, leading to a negative outlook for related sectors [13][14] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to address price competition and improve product quality, particularly in the durable consumer goods sector [30][44]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 07 月 11 日 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 30 8 14 相对表现 26 0 -3 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jul/24 Nov/24 Feb/25 Jun/25 (%) 沪电股份 沪深300 相关报告 沪电股份（002463.SZ） Q2 业绩超预期，拟加码黄石基地扩产，看好中长线 AI 订单承接能力 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件：1）公司发布 2025 年业绩预告。2）公司近期公告同意出于黄石沪士未 来经营发展的需求，2025 年 7 月至 2031 年 6 月期间，在不超过人民币 36 亿 元的总投资额度范围内，授权管理层可就潜在项目投资与黄石经济技术开发区 管理委员会进行磋商。我们点评如下： 强烈推荐（维持） 当前股价：47.25 元 基础数据 | 总股本（百万股） | 1923 | | --- | --- | | 已上市流通股（百万股） | 1922 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 90.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 90.8 | | 每股净资产（MRQ） | 6.6 | | ROE（TTM） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for JD Group [2][5]. Core Views - JD Group is expected to achieve a total revenue growth of 15.5% year-on-year in Q2 2025, with Non-GAAP net profit estimated at approximately 4.5 billion yuan [1][5]. - The retail revenue is projected to grow by 15% year-on-year, with GMV and revenue maintaining double-digit growth rates [5]. - The company is increasing investments in its new takeaway business, which is expected to impact short-term profits but will enhance long-term growth and synergy with its core business [1][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - For the fiscal year 2023, the main revenue is projected at 1,084,662 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4% [2]. - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 35,200 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a 25% year-on-year increase [2]. - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is 8.34 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 [2][9]. - The target valuation for the stock is set between 133 and 167 HKD, with the current stock price at 125.3 HKD [2][5]. Business Performance - The report anticipates that the retail operating profit margin will remain stable year-on-year, despite increased investment in the takeaway business [5]. - The takeaway business has shown rapid growth, with peak order volumes exceeding 25 million and significant market share in quality takeaway services [5]. - The company is focusing on enhancing the synergy between its takeaway and e-commerce operations, with cross-selling trends improving in recent months [5]. Key Financial Ratios - The return on equity (ROE) is reported at 17.7% [3]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 54.5% [3]. - The projected net profit margin for 2023 is 2.2% [8].