Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the industry, suggesting to focus on related companies in the AI industry chain due to the irreversible acceleration of the AI industry and the increasing importance of self-control amid ongoing trade frictions [1][3]. Core Insights - The AI industry is experiencing an irreversible acceleration, driven by the introduction of the Model Context Protocol (MCP), which simplifies AI integration and promotes tool equity [1][9]. - The ongoing trade friction between the US and China is leading to a significant shift towards domestic computing power, making self-control increasingly important [1][43]. - The report highlights the performance of various AI models and applications, indicating a rapid evolution in AI capabilities and market adoption [1][22][29]. Summary by Sections Section 1: MCP Protocol and AI Acceleration - The MCP protocol, likened to a "USB-C interface" for AI applications, is facilitating standardized communication between AI models and external data sources, significantly lowering development barriers [9][14]. - Major domestic and international companies are adopting the MCP protocol, enhancing the deployment of AI applications and agents [9][19]. Section 2: Trade Friction and Self-Control - The US government's indefinite export licensing requirements for advanced chips are creating uncertainty in importing overseas technology, pushing domestic companies to focus on self-sufficiency [43][44]. - Companies like Cambricon and Haiguang are showing strong commercial performance, indicating a shift towards domestic computing solutions [44][46]. Section 3: Market Performance Review - The computer sector experienced a slight decline of 0.84% in the third week of April 2025, with notable stock performances from companies like Chuangshi Technology and Meideng Technology [48]. - The report provides earnings forecasts for key companies, indicating potential growth in EPS for firms like Kingsoft Office and Yonyou Network [49].

Core Views - The current market is under the influence of "stabilizing" forces, with controllable downside risks and a high probability of upward breakout due to improving economic data and potential policy support [1][5][20] - The A-share market is expected to see stable demand and rising corporate profits, with a focus on sectors experiencing local economic recovery, high free cash flow, and high-growth areas with low penetration rates [1][5][20] Economic Data Highlights - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan, growing by 5.4% year-on-year, with exports contributing significantly to economic growth [3][21] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in March showed an increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.6%, indicating a recovery in consumption [3][22] - The broad fiscal expenditure growth rate reached 5.6% in Q1, which is expected to support economic stability and market recovery [21][22] Industry Insights - Key sectors showing improvement include consumer services (home appliances, furniture, communication equipment), high-tech manufacturing (new energy vehicles, power generation equipment, integrated circuits), and real estate sales [6][30][36] - The electronics sector continues to show signs of recovery, with smartphone production turning positive in March and retail sales of communication equipment increasing significantly [3][36][37] - The manufacturing sector, particularly in high-tech areas, is maintaining a high level of activity, with significant year-on-year increases in production for new energy vehicles and power generation equipment [30][36][39]

证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 04 月 20 日 中下旬鸡价回暖，关注海外引种短缺 禽养殖 2025 年 3 月跟踪报告 消费品/农林牧渔 3 月中下旬白羽鸡价回暖，养殖端盈利显著改善；当前头部企业黄鸡养殖成本 已回落至低位，旺季鸡价回暖后有望大幅释放盈利弹性。 ❑ 风险提示：鸡价波动超预期；上市公司销量及成本表现不及预期；突发大规 模不可控疫病；饲料原料价格波动超预期；重大食品安全事件。 重点公司主要财务指标 | 公司简称 | 公司代码 | 市值 | 23EPS | 24EPS | 24PE | PB | 投资评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 圣农发展 | 002299.SZ | 20.5 | 0.53 | 0.58 | 28.3 | 2.0 | 强烈推荐 | | 温氏股份 | 300498.SZ | 113.8 | -0.96 | 1.67 | 10.2 | 3.0 | 强烈推荐 | | 立华股份 | 300761.SZ | 16.7 | -0.53 | 1.84 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 强烈推荐 | 资 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the bond market, including various indicators such as sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, institutional allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation. It shows that last week the bond market witnessed a decline in some sentiment and trading - related indicators, while there were changes in institutional duration and allocation power. For example, the bond market sentiment index and turnover rates of multiple bonds decreased, and the duration of some institutional investors changed, with improved institutional allocation power for some institutions [1][2][3]. Summary by Category 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index last week was 114.0, down 0.9 from the previous value, and the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 41.9%, down 10.4 percentage points from the previous value [1] 2. Institutional Duration - The fund duration on the last Friday was 2.26 years, down 0.02 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.64 years, up 0.08 years; the insurance duration was 6.81 years, up 0.03 years [1] 3. Leverage Ratio - The balance of pledged - repo last week was 10.5 trillion yuan, down 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large banks was 2.8 trillion yuan, down 0.1 trillion yuan; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.4%, down 0.1 percentage point [1] 4. Secondary Trading - The turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds was 2.3%, down 0.4 percentage points; the 10Y Treasury bond turnover rate was 0.9%, down 1.1 percentage points; the 10Y China Development Bank bond turnover rate was 25.6%, down 3.3 percentage points; the ultra - long - term credit bond turnover rate was 0.39%, down 0.07 percentage points [1] 5. Institutional Allocation Power - The newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.3 billion yuan, up 9 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 1.72%, down 0.11 percentage points; the US dollar index was 99.6, down 2.4 [2] - The 6M bill rediscount rate minus 6M certificate of deposit was - 65.0bp, unchanged from the previous value; the rural commercial bank bond allocation index was 42.2%, up 95.3 percentage points; the insurance bond allocation index was 68.6%, up 21.3 percentage points; the money market fund bond allocation index was 37.4%, up 24.4 percentage points; the insurance second - tier perpetual bond allocation index was - 22.3%, up 0.9 percentage points [3] 6. Primary Subscription - The full - field multiple of Treasury bonds last week fell 0.8 times to 3.2 times, the full - field multiple of local bonds rose 4.7 times to 22.7 times, and the full - field multiple of China Development Bank bonds was 2.7 times, unchanged from the previous value [3] 7. Relative Valuation - The spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds narrowed 1.3bp to 3.4bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds widened 2.3bp to 22.5bp; the spread between 10 - year old and new China Development Bank bonds widened 2.3bp to 1.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local bonds and Treasury bonds widened 0.2bp to 26.6bp [3]

证券研究报告 | 基金研究（公募） 2025 年 4 月 19 日 港股通 50、恒生港股通 ETF 领涨 ETF 基金周度跟踪（0414-0418） 本报告重点聚焦 ETF 基金市场表现，总结过去一周 ETF 基金市场、不同热门 细分类型 ETF 基金、创新主题及细分行业 ETF 基金的业绩表现和资金流动， 供投资者参考。 ❑ 市场表现： 本周（4 月 14 日-4 月 18 日）主投 A 股的 ETF 涨跌不一。其中，金融地产 ETF 涨幅较大，规模以上基金平均上涨 1.84%；相反，国防军工 ETF 跌幅 最深，规模以上基金平均下跌 2.79%。此外，本周商品 ETF 涨幅最大，规 模以上基金平均上涨 3.44%。 ❑ 资金流动： 资金大幅流入大盘指数 ETF，全周资金净流入 267.82 亿元。相反，金融地 产、SmartBeta、全市场指数等 ETF 出现小幅资金流出。 ❑ 风险提示：图表中列示的数据结果仅为对市场及个基历史表现的客观描述， 并不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议。 徐燕红 S1090524120003 xuyanhong@cmschina.com.cn 应绍桦 S10 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression to identify the support and resistance lines of interest rate trends and provides timing signals based on the shape breakthroughs across different investment cycles (short, medium, and long)[10][22] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Signal Generation**: The strategy identifies interest rate shape breakthroughs across short, medium, and long cycles. A composite timing signal is generated when at least two cycles show consistent breakthroughs[10][22] - **Portfolio Construction**: - Full allocation to long duration when at least two cycles break below the support line and the trend is not upward - 50% allocation to medium duration and 50% to long duration when at least two cycles break below the support line but the trend is upward - Full allocation to short duration when at least two cycles break above the resistance line and the trend is not downward - 50% allocation to medium duration and 50% to short duration when at least two cycles break above the resistance line but the trend is downward - Equal allocation to short, medium, and long durations during other periods - **Performance Benchmark**: Equal-weighted duration strategy (1/3 short, 1/3 medium, 1/3 long durations)[22] - **Stop-Loss Mechanism**: Adjust holdings to equal-weighted allocation when daily excess return falls below -0.5%[22] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with high absolute and excess returns, low drawdowns, and consistent positive annual returns over 18 years[22][23] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Interest Rate Timing Strategy - **Short-Term Annualized Return**: 8.04% since the end of 2023[4][22] - **Short-Term Maximum Drawdown**: 1.63%[4][22] - **Short-Term Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 6.89[4][22] - **Short-Term Excess Return**: 2.72% relative to the benchmark[4][22] - **Short-Term Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 2.8[23] - **Long-Term Annualized Return**: 6.22% since 2007[22] - **Long-Term Maximum Drawdown**: 1.53%[22] - **Long-Term Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 2.27[22] - **Long-Term Excess Return**: 1.69% relative to the benchmark[22] - **Long-Term Excess Return-to-Drawdown Ratio**: 1.19[22] - **Annual Positive Absolute Return Rate**: 100% over 18 years[23] - **Annual Positive Excess Return Rate**: 100% over 18 years[23] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Interest Rate Structure Indicators (Level, Term, Convexity) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Transform yield-to-maturity (YTM) data of 1-10 year government bonds into structural indicators (level, term, convexity) to analyze the interest rate market from a mean-reversion perspective[7][9] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Level Structure**: Represents the average YTM across maturities - **Term Structure**: Calculated as the difference between long-term and short-term YTMs - **Convexity Structure**: Measures the curvature of the yield curve - **Historical Percentile Analysis**: Compare current readings to historical 3, 5, and 10-year percentiles to assess relative positioning[7][9] - **Factor Evaluation**: The current readings indicate low levels across all three structures, suggesting a mean-reversion opportunity[7][9] 2. Factor Name: Duration and Duration Dispersion of Public Bond Funds - **Factor Construction Idea**: Use an improved regression model to estimate the duration and dispersion of public bond funds, dynamically tracking weekly changes in fund duration views[13][14] - **Factor Construction Process**: - **Duration Metrics**: - Median duration (including leverage): 3.03 years - 4-week moving average: 3.06 years - Mean duration: 3.09 years - **Dispersion Metrics**: - Cross-sectional standard deviation of fund durations: 1.48 years - **Historical Percentile Analysis**: Compare current readings to historical 5-year percentiles to assess relative positioning[13][14] - **Factor Evaluation**: Current duration levels are relatively high, while dispersion is moderately high, indicating a neutral-to-high divergence in institutional views[13][14] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Interest Rate Structure Indicators - **Level Structure**: Current reading is 1.54%, positioned at the 7%, 4%, and 2% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively[9] - **Term Structure**: Current reading is 0.22%, positioned at the 1%, 0%, and 4% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively[9] - **Convexity Structure**: Current reading is -0.07%, positioned at the 4%, 2%, and 2% percentiles for 3, 5, and 10-year historical windows, respectively[9] 2. Duration and Duration Dispersion of Public Bond Funds - **Median Duration**: 3.03 years, positioned at the 82.63% percentile over the past 5 years[14] - **Dispersion (Standard Deviation)**: 1.48 years, positioned at the 54.44% percentile over the past 5 years[14] - **Yield-to-Maturity (YTM)**: - Median YTM: 1.86% - 4-week moving average: 1.95% - Mean YTM: 1.88% - Current YTM levels are relatively low compared to historical data[19]

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 04 月 19 日 江苏银行（600919.SH） 营收增速回暖，个贷不良双降 总量研究/银行 江苏银行披露 2024 年度报告，24A 营业收入、PPOP、归母利润同比增速分别 为 8.78%、7.60%、10.76%，增速分别较 24Q1~3 变动+2.60pct、+0.54pct、 +0.70pct，营收、PPOP、归母净利润增速保持回升。累计业绩驱动上，规模、 其他非息、有效税率下降为主要正贡献，净息差收窄、成本收入比上升为主要 负贡献；另外，单季度来看，24Q4 息差、中收对业绩边际贡献由负转正，带动 24Q4 单季度归母净利润实现 16.5%的增速。 核心观点： 亮点：（1）营收增速回暖。24 年全年公司实现营业收入增速 8.8%，归母净利 润增速 10.8%，环比 24Q1~3 分别回升 2.6pct、0.7pct。其中 Q4 单季度营收和 归母净利润增速分别为 18.5%、16.5%，环比大幅回升，主要是 23Q4 基数较低。 （2）规模保持较快增长。2024 年公司总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为 16.1%、 16.3%、12.8%。24Q4 单季 ...

本周估值风格显著，规模因子表现出色 ——因子周报 20250418 金融工程 1. 主要市场指数与风格表现回顾 本周主要宽基指数涨跌不一。北证 50 上涨 3.48%，上证指数上涨 1.19%，中证 2000 上涨 0.75%，沪深 300 上涨 0.59%，中证 800 上涨 0.34%；中证 500 下跌 0.37%，中证 1000 下跌 0.52%，深证成指下跌 0.54%，创业板指下跌 0.64%。 从行业来看，本周银行、房地产、煤炭、综合、石油石化等行业表现居 前；国防军工、农林牧渔、计算机、消费者服务、电子等行业表现居后。 从风格因子来看，最近一周估值因子、规模因子和非线性市值因子的表现 尤为突出，因子多空收益分别为 2.06%、-2.87%和-0.89%。 2. 选股因子表现跟踪 沪深 300 股票池中，本周 120 日成交比率、单季度 ROA 同比、BP 因子 表现较好。中证 500 股票池中，本周标准化预期外盈利、流动比率、单季度营 业收入同比增速因子表现较好。中证 800 股票池中，本周单季度 ROE 同比、 单季度净利润同比增速、单季度营业利润同比增速因子表现较好。中证 1000 股票池 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Strong Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is a leading global provider of digital content asset protection and transaction SaaS services, with a business model based on subscription services and a focus on maximizing IP value through various value-added services [1][6] - The company has experienced rapid revenue growth, with revenue increasing from HKD 120 million in 2018 to HKD 2.4 billion in 2024, representing a CAGR of 65% [6][11] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the rise of AIGC technology and increasing demand for content protection and identification [6][11] Company Overview - The company was founded in 2005 in Silicon Valley and went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January 2018 [11] - The company has a diversified business model that includes subscription services and various value-added services, focusing on long-term stable service to top content providers globally [14][15] - The major shareholder is Yangbin Bernard Wang, holding 18.30% of the shares [3][18] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of HKD 2.4 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by growth in both the US and China [24] - The company expects to achieve revenues of HKD 2.8 billion, HKD 3.5 billion, and HKD 4.5 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 186 million, HKD 251 million, and HKD 342 million [7][24] - The company has maintained a gross margin above 40% from 2022 to 2024, with a decrease in expense ratio to 25% in 2024 [32][34] Industry Situation - The rise of streaming platforms has significantly increased the demand for content protection, with subscription users growing rapidly in the US [36][39] - Domestic policies are increasingly encouraging cultural exports, enhancing awareness of copyright protection [45][48] - The company is positioned to leverage the growing need for copyright protection as the digital content landscape evolves [6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for China Unicom [4] Core Views - In Q1 2025, China Unicom achieved a revenue of 103.4 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year growth of 3.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.6 billion yuan, up 6.5% year-over-year [1][8] - The company continues to expand its computing power business, with a total intelligent computing scale exceeding 21 EFLOPS, meeting AI training and inference demands [8] - Strategic partnerships with major internet companies like Alibaba and Tencent are expected to enhance AI service capabilities and cloud business [8] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2023: 372.6 billion yuan, 2024: 389.6 billion yuan, 2025E: 403.7 billion yuan, 2026E: 415.7 billion yuan, 2027E: 426.3 billion yuan, with growth rates of 5%, 5%, 4%, 3%, and 3% respectively [3][21] - Net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.8 billion yuan, 10.5 billion yuan, and 11.2 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 17.4, 16.2, and 15.2 respectively [8][22] - The company reported a total market capitalization of 170.1 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 167.4 billion yuan [4] Operational Performance - As of Q1 2025, the company had 349 million mobile users and 124 million fixed broadband users, with a net increase of 4.78 million and 1.92 million users respectively [8] - The revenue from cloud and IDC services reached 19.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with IDC business revenue growing by 8.8% year-over-year [8] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2023 is projected at 104.3 billion yuan, with a net profit of 18.7 billion yuan [20]