期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-28 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The crude oil futures are expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being strong [1][5]. - Geopolitical risks are rising, which has led to a stable and rising trend in domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night, and it is predicted that domestic crude oil futures will maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Time - cycle Viewpoints - Short - term (within one week): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2603 is oscillatory [1]. - Intraday: The trend of crude oil 2603 is strong, and the reference view is a strong run [1][5]. Core Logic - Recently, US President Trump has frequently released geopolitical risk signals, and Greenland and Canada may become the next targets for the US to seize and attack [5]. - As the US military aircraft carrier has reached the Middle East battlefield in the short term and Iran has issued tough statements, a new round of military conflict between the US and Iran may break out, threatening the crude oil transportation in the Middle East, and geopolitical risks have increased again [5]. - The geopolitical risk sentiment has overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals of the oil market, boosting the stable and rising trend of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices on Tuesday night [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-28 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026-01-19 | 2025/12 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.5 | 4.8 | 5.4 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.1 | 49.8 | 50.1 | | 2025-12-31 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活动 | % | 50.2 | 50.0 | 52.2 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | 社会融资规模:当月值 | 亿元 | 22075 | 35299 | 28537 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M0:同比 | % | 10.2 | 11.5 | 13.0 | | 2026-01-15 | 2025/12 | M1:同比 | % | 3.8 | 7.2 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 28, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different sectors such as power coal, energy and chemical, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures. 3. Summary by Directory Power Coal - Basis data for power coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 shows that the basis on January 21 was - 115 yuan/ton, and from January 22 - 27 it was - 116 yuan/ton [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Energy Commodities**: Basis and price ratio data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and crude oil/asphalt from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of INE crude oil was - 11.28 yuan/ton [7]. - **Chemical Commodities**: - Basis data for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, V, and PP from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. For instance, on January 27, the basis of rubber was - 355 yuan/ton [9]. - Inter - period spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the 5 - 1 month spread of rubber was - 600 yuan/ton [10]. - Inter - variety spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from January 21 - 27, 2026 are shown. On January 27, the LLDPE - PVC spread was 1948 yuan/ton [10]. Black Metals - Basis data for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. For example, on January 27, the basis of rebar was 114.0 yuan/ton [20]. - Inter - period spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of rebar was - 740 yuan/ton [19]. - Inter - variety spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the rebar/iron ore ratio was 3.97 [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of copper was - 1180 yuan/ton [27]. - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on January 27, 2026 are given. For example, the LME spread of copper was (93.80) [31]. Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of soybeans No.1 was - 204 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - period spreads for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans No.1 was - 43 yuan/ton [35]. - Inter - variety spreads for soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from January 21 - 27, 2026 are presented. On January 27, the soybeans No.1/corn ratio was 1.90 [35]. Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 21 - 27, 2026 are provided. On January 27, the basis of CSI 300 was - 12.41 [47]. - Inter - period spreads for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 was - 44.6 [47].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货铁矿石早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铁矿 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡运行 | 产业矛盾累积，矿价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 严谨管 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Core Views - On Tuesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The price center of the contract during the session slightly moved down to around 16,200 yuan/ton, closing 0.31% lower at 16,205 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. Affected by the collective correction of the energy and chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price may maintain a fluctuating trend in the future [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 2,336 yuan/ton and a minimum of 2,285 yuan/ton, closing 1.07% lower at 2,304 yuan/ton, and the discount of the May - September spread widened to 25 yuan/ton. As the geopolitical risks weaken, the methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating consolidation trend [6]. - On Tuesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating and falling back, and slightly closing lower. The contract price reached a maximum of 454.2 yuan/barrel and a minimum of 442.4 yuan/barrel, closing 0.93% lower at 446.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weaken, the premium part of crude oil has been partially reversed, and the short - term oil price will maintain a fluctuating consolidation pattern [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%, and the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points. The inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.84%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.92 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 22.14 percentage points. During the week, the capacity utilization rates of sample enterprises showed mixed trends. Some semi - steel tire enterprises had support from foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, while most other enterprises maintained stable production schedules. The all - steel tire shipment pressure increased, and some enterprises had moderate production control, dragging the capacity utilization rate slightly lower. Currently, it is in the pre - "Spring Festival" stocking period, and most enterprises have no plans to significantly adjust production schedules to reserve inventory for post - festival supply [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the production and sales scale has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%, and the production and sales returned to above 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. In total, the total sales volume of China's heavy - truck market in 2025 reached a new high in the past four years at 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 85.68%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.12%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.23%. During the same period, the average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.009 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 47,000 tons, and a significant increase of 83,300 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 25.43%, a week - on - week significant decrease of 5.33%. In terms of dimethyl ether, the operating rate was maintained at 5.79%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.27%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 84.70%, a week - on - week increase of 2.58%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.15%, a week - on - week slight increase of 0.21%. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 78%, a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.59 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.32%. As of January 23, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week slight increase of 63 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant decrease of 147 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.0199 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 24,600 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 111,700 tons, and a significant increase of 255,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 22, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 438,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,200 tons, and a significant increase of 138,800 tons compared with 299,600 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 410, a week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.732 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 21,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 255,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 426 million barrels, a week - on - week significant increase of 3.602 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 14.386 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 25.063 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1.478 million barrels. The strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 414.5 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 806,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 93.3%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.0 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 20, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 78,792 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 20,664 contracts and a significant increase of 20,021 contracts or 34.07% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 20, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 205,771 contracts, a week - on - week significant increase of 12,405 contracts and a significant increase of 100,312 contracts or 95.12% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,950 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,205 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 255 yuan/ton | + 25 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,315 yuan/ton | - 20 yuan/ton | 2,304 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 11 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 429.7 yuan/barrel | + 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | - 10.6 yuan/barrel | - 17.0 yuan/barrel | - 10.7 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (such as rubber basis, May - September spread, warehouse inventory, and tire production rates), methanol (such as methanol basis, May - September spread, port and inland inventory, and production rates of related derivatives), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, inventory, and net position changes). The data sources for these charts are from Wind and the Baocheng Futures Financial Research Institute [15][28][40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The main contract price of rebar declined weakly with a daily decline of 0.79%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, rebar production has significantly increased, supply has grown, while demand is weak, leading to the accumulation of fundamental contradictions. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. The subsequent trend will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.60%, and both trading volume and open interest contracted. Currently, the supply of hot - rolled coil has declined, but inventory is high and the pressure remains. Demand resilience is weakening, and industrial contradictions are likely to accumulate, putting pressure on prices. The relatively positive factor is the decent speculative demand. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated weakly with a daily decline of 0.51%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. Currently, the reduction in iron ore supply is limited, demand is weak, and combined with high inventory pressure, the fundamentals are weak. Iron ore prices are under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment. It is expected that iron ore prices will maintain an oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to steel mills' restocking [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In 2025, the China Development Bank issued over 200 billion yuan in railway loans, a year - on - year increase of 27.8%, and the railway loan balance exceeded 1 trillion yuan for the first time. By the end of 2025, the total operating mileage of high - speed rail projects supported by the bank exceeded 42,500 kilometers, accounting for over 85% of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high - speed rail network. In the future, it will continue to increase support for railway construction [7]. - According to the Tower Crane Rental Industry Prosperity Index (TPI) in December 2025, the utilization rate of tower crane days was 55.1%, and the utilization rate of maximum lifting moment was 56.8%, 2 and 1.5 percentage points lower than the previous month respectively. The rental price index was 496.52 points, 5.65 points lower than the previous month and 57.283 points lower than the same period last year [8]. - On January 23, 2026, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission announced a new exporter review investigation of anti - dumping and counter - subsidy on aluminized zinc - coated steel sheets imported from the Chinese mainland at the request of a Chinese exporter. The investigation period is from January 1, 2025, to December 31, 2025, and the final ruling is expected to be submitted by April 15, 2026 [9]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and Tangshan billet all declined, while the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap remained unchanged. The spot prices of PB powder in Shandong ports increased, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil increased slightly, the SGX swap price decreased, and the iron ore price index declined [10]. Futures Market - The closing price of rebar futures was 3,126 yuan, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 673,796 lots and an open interest of 1,714,659 lots. - The closing price of hot - rolled coil futures was 3,289 yuan, a decline of 0.60%, with a trading volume of 288,700 lots and an open interest of 1,508,428 lots. - The closing price of iron ore futures was 788.0 yuan, a decline of 0.51%, with a trading volume of 211,744 lots and an open interest of 571,053 lots [12]. Related Charts - The section on related charts mainly presents various inventory and production - related charts of steel and iron ore, including steel inventory, iron ore inventory, and steel mill production conditions, showing the trends and seasonal characteristics of relevant data over multiple years [14][22][27]. 后市研判 - For rebar, supply pressure is increasing as production has risen, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure during the off - season but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will continue to oscillate at a low level, and inventory changes should be monitored [34]. - For hot - rolled coil, both supply and demand have weakened. Inventory is high, and demand resilience is weakening. Although speculative demand is decent, the price is under pressure and will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to demand performance [34]. - For iron ore, the supply reduction is limited, demand is weak, and inventory is high. The price is under pressure but may be supported by warm commodity sentiment. It will maintain an oscillating trend, and steel mills' restocking should be monitored [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 27, the coke主力contract closed at 1,668 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 2.77%. The position of the主力 contract was 38,429 lots, a net increase of 1,859 lots from the previous trading day. The spot market prices of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke were flat week - on - week, and Qingdao Port's prices rose 0.69% week - on - week. The coke fundamentals have not improved significantly, with stable supply and demand, and limited support from coking coal. The主力contract will maintain a low - level range for now [5][31] - On January 27, the coking coal主力contract closed at 1,116.5 points, with an intraday decline of 3.00%. The position of the主力 contract was 513,166 lots, a net increase of 20,760 lots from the previous trading day. The spot price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was flat week - on - week. Without direct policy support, weak fundamentals suppress the coking coal futures to run at a low level, but considering winter storage, the downside is limited and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Jiangxi will implement 5,296 large - and medium - sized projects in 2026, with an expected investment of about 1.1 trillion yuan. It will also focus on new infrastructure projects such as 6G and computing power, and promote major projects like the Poyang Lake Water Conservancy Project [7] - On January 27, the coking coal price in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking coal at 1,640 yuan/ton [8] 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Flat Price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Coke (Out - of - warehouse Price) | 1,460 yuan/ton | 0.69% | 0.69% | - 9.88% | - 4.58% | | Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coking Coal | 1,240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Jingtang Port Australian Coking Coal | 1,590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Jingtang Port Shanxi Coking Coal | 1,780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,668 yuan/ton | - 2.77% | 1,730 yuan/ton | 1,655 yuan/ton | 19,620 lots | 3,633 lots | 38,429 lots | 1,859 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,116.5 points | - 3.00% | 1,162.5 points | 1,110 points | 832,838 lots | - 53,572 lots | 513,166 lots | 20,760 lots | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke and coking coal in different entities (such as independent coking plants, ports, and steel mills), as well as domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation status from 2021 - 2026 [14][15][16] 3.5 Market Outlook - The outlook for coke and coking coal futures is consistent with the core viewpoints, with coke maintaining a low - level range and coking coal expected to have limited downside and a narrow - range oscillation [31]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 179600 元/吨，较前日 上涨 13920 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 27 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂强势运行 摘要 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 172400 元/吨，较前日下跌 5.08%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为-620 点，负基差（现货贴水），较前日走 弱 5300 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Copper - Today, the copper price opened lower in the morning, with the main contract price fluctuating around 100,200 yuan. It rebounded slightly in the afternoon. The weak US dollar index, fluctuating narrowly around 97, is favorable for copper prices. On the industrial side, electrolytic copper stocks increased slightly on Monday, and the spread between February and March contracts rebounded slightly today. There is a short - term risk of the copper price weakening due to a potential decline in silver prices from their high levels [6]. 2.2 Aluminum - Today, the aluminum price first declined and then rose. It dropped to the 24,000 - yuan mark in the morning and continued to rebound in the afternoon, with the open interest decreasing continuously. The weak US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to rise this Monday, and the downstream market remained in a wait - and - see attitude. The spread between February and March contracts rebounded slightly today. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 24,000 - yuan mark [7]. 2.3 Nickel - Today, the nickel price oscillated weakly, with the open interest decreasing continuously. The weak US dollar index is favorable for non - ferrous metals. In the short term, as the precious metals sector declined from its high levels, dragging down the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel showed a significant decline with reduced positions, indicating a strong willingness among short - term bulls to close positions. On the industrial side, the port nickel ore inventory increased seasonally, and the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 145,000 - yuan mark [8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Copper - Starting from the close of trading and settlement on January 28, 2026 (Wednesday), the daily price limit and trading margin ratio for copper futures listed contracts will be adjusted. The daily price limit will be adjusted to 9%, the hedging position trading margin ratio to 10%, and the general position trading margin ratio to 11%. On January 26, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 341,400 tons, an increase of 6,200 tons compared to the 22nd [10][11]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On January 26, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 796,000 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons compared to the 22nd [12]. 3.1.3 Nickel - On January 27, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 144,100 - 152,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 148,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 6,500 - 7,000 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 6,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was in the range of - 300 - 600 yuan/ton [13]. 3.2 Related Charts 3.2.1 Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME+COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [14][16][17]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - LME ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [26][28][30]. 3.2.3 Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, LME nickel price trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][44].