投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.32%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应增加，而需求表现疲弱，供增需弱局面下基本面持续走弱， 淡季钢价易承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖，预计走势延续低位震荡 运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷产量有所回落，而需求同样走弱，供需双减局面下产业格局弱 稳运行，但库存偏高，价格仍易承 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 观点参考 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡 | 基本面拖累，焦煤区间震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 向上驱动不足，焦炭震荡运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡 ◼ 品种观点参考 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 1 月 28 日 橡胶甲醇原油 风险溢价增强 能化震荡走强 核心观点 橡胶：本周三国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现放量增仓，震荡偏强， 小幅收涨的走势，盘中期价重心小幅上移至 16360 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价小幅收涨 1.24%至 16360 元/吨。5-9 月差升水幅度升阔至 80 元/吨。能化板块集体企稳反弹带动沪胶期货重新走强，预计后市胶价 或维持震荡偏强走势。 甲醇：本周三国内甲醇期货 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂弱势运行 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 166280 元/吨，较前日 下跌 13320 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现震荡走势。 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 171960 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.26%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 1620 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走强 2240 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core View - The short - term price trends of domestic and foreign soybean futures may diverge. The external market is suppressed by South American bumper harvests, while the domestic market is supported by stocking demand. Palm oil shows a relatively strong performance in the oil and fat sector, driven by market sentiment and marginal improvements in the industrial chain supply - demand situation [5][7]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Bean Meal (M) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: follows the external market, with an intraday view of being slightly stronger; medium - term: oscillating [5][6]. - **Driving Factors**: The US soybean price has declined due to the expected increase in China's soybean imports from Brazil. Although the US soybean export inspection volume has increased by 79% year - on - year, the cumulative annual volume is still lower than the same period last year. Domestic Spring Festival stocking demand supports bean prices, and the feed enterprises' active pick - up before the festival has reduced the oil mills' inventory pressure. The recovery of the crushing profit on the futures market has led to a large - scale transaction of far - month contracts, limiting the rebound space of bean meal [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trends**: Short - term: in a policy - sensitive period, maintaining a relatively strong operation pattern; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger [6][7]. - **Driving Factors**: Malaysian palm oil has seen a decline in production and an increase in exports. Favorable high - frequency data have improved the supply - demand situation and alleviated inventory pressure, driving up the price. India's cancellation of over 50,000 tons of soybean oil orders from Brazil and Argentina and turning to palm oil procurement has provided demand support. The domestic palm oil futures price has followed the external market, with market sentiment significantly warming up. High import costs, limited purchases, a slight reduction in port inventory, and a firm spot basis have all contributed to the strong performance [7]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **Price Trends**: Short - term: strong; medium - term: strong; intraday: slightly stronger; reference view: slightly stronger [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Supported by US soybean cost, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [6].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 估值端提升较快，股指震荡整固 需求升温 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 期货研究报告 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡整理。沪深京三市成交额 29215 亿元，较上日缩量 3592 亿元。中长期 来看，政策面利好预期以及增量资金持续净流入股市的 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 强势 | 强势 | 观望 | 高位波动加剧，短期资金获利了 结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 震荡 | 强势 | 弱势 | 观望 | 强预期弱现实 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 日内观点：强势 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：昨日夜盘纽约金 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The methanol futures market is expected to maintain a volatile and bullish trend. In the short - term (within a week), it will be volatile; in the medium - term (two weeks to one month), it will also be volatile, and intraday it is expected to be bullish [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Price and Market Outlook - Methanol 2605 is expected to be volatile in the short - term, volatile in the medium - term, and bullish intraday, with a reference view of bullish operation [1]. - It is predicted that domestic methanol futures on Wednesday will maintain a volatile and bullish trend [5]. Driving Logic - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices recently. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the recovery of port spot prices, strengthening the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market [5]. - The arrival of a US military aircraft carrier in the Middle East and Iran's strong statements may lead to an escalation of the US - Iran conflict, increasing the premium of crude oil [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for TL2603 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weak". The overall view is "oscillation and consolidation" because the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Due to strong resilience in macro - economic indicators and recent structural interest rate cuts by the central bank, the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut is low, so the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures is insufficient. However, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and a loose monetary and credit environment is needed in the future, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. Also, rising global geopolitical and trade protection risks increase the demand for capital hedging, which supports Treasury bond prices. Overall, the short - term upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, with a focus on oscillation and consolidation [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "weak", the view reference is "oscillation and consolidation", and the core logic is that the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut has decreased [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weak", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and consolidated. Strong macro - economic indicators and recent central bank structural interest rate cuts reduce the short - term possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut, limiting the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. But insufficient domestic effective demand requires a loose monetary and credit environment in the future, providing support for Treasury bond futures. Additionally, rising global uncertainties increase capital hedging demand, supporting Treasury bond prices. In the short - term, the upside and downside space for Treasury bond futures is limited, with an oscillation and consolidation trend [5].

期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 28 日） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现偏弱，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙 1-5 楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 扫码关注宝城期货官方微信·期货咨询尽在掌握 服 务 国 家 走 向 世 界 知行合一 专 业 敬 业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 营 ...