Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Report's Core View - The report believes that the crude oil market is dominated by supply - demand surplus, and the price of domestic crude oil futures is expected to run weakly with a volatile trend. Although geopolitical risks may drive up oil prices, the long - term logic of weak supply - demand fundamentals will suppress oil prices [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - cycle Views - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "oscillating", and the short - term downward trend of domestic crude oil futures still exists [1][5] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "oscillating" [1][5] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 and domestic crude oil futures is "weak", with a reference view of "running weakly" [1][5] 3.2 Core Logic - **Positive Factor**: During the New Year's Day holiday, geopolitical risks have rapidly increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and the US president's threat to other South American countries, which may drive up oil prices after the holiday [5] - **Negative Factor**: The long - term logic of the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the main reason for the suppression of oil prices. The global supply surplus concern persists, and the pessimistic sentiment among funds remains [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content [1] Group 2: Report's Core Views - For gold, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is oscillating and slightly strong, and the reference view is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are beneficial to the gold price [1][3] - For copper, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is strong, the intraday view is rising, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long run. The core drivers are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and long - term AI narrative [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Gold (AU) - The intraday view is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is to wait and see. Yesterday, the gold price oscillated after reaching a high during the day and continued to strengthen at night. The US military's air strike on Venezuela on January 3rd and the capture of the Venezuelan president increased market risk - aversion, causing the gold price to open higher. The high post - holiday market risk preference and liquidity are also factors pushing up the gold price. Keep an eye on the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark of Shanghai gold [3] Copper (CU) - The intraday view is rising, the medium - term view is strong, and the reference view is to be bullish in the long run. After the New Year's Day holiday, Shanghai copper increased positions and rose, becoming strong again and standing above the 100,000 - yuan mark, while LME copper stood above the $13,000 mark. The core drivers are macro - liquidity relaxation, mine - end disturbances, and long - term AI narrative. Macro and financial factors provide "fuel" for the rise of copper prices. The supply - side (mine - end) constraints build a solid "floor", as the delay of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador and production interruptions in other large copper mines lead to less - than - expected new supply of global copper mines. The demand - side new narrative forms a long - term support [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to experience high - level oscillations. Its short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. - The iron ore market is in a state where the supply - demand sides have changed. Although the demand has increased to some extent and the supply has decreased, the fundamentals remain weak, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the steel mills' restocking situation [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2605 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is oscillatory with a slight upward bias. The overall view is high - level oscillation, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weak and the upward driving force is not strong [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of iron ore have changed. Steel mills have started to resume production, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded from a low level, but the improvement in profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market cannot support a large - scale increase in production, so the rebound space of ore demand is limited. At the same time, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again, but after the year - end rush, the miners' shipments have dropped significantly, and the domestic ore supply is also seasonally shrinking, so the ore supply has dropped from a high level. Currently, due to steel mills' restocking and structural contradictions in the spot market, the ore price remains at a high level, but the supply is relatively high while the demand improvement is limited, so the fundamentals are weak and the upward driving force is not strong [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - This is a futures research report from Baocheng Futures, presenting daily arbitrage data for various futures varieties on January 6, 2026, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Power Coal - The report shows the basis of power coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, with the basis on January 5, 2026, being - 116.4 yuan/ton. The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts are all 0.0 [1][2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - For fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt, data such as basis, ratio, and other indicators are presented from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026. For example, on January 5, 2026, the basis of INE crude oil is 26.43 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. For instance, on January 5, 2026, the basis of rubber is - 240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given. For example, the May - January spread of rubber is 35 yuan/ton [9]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3*methanol from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the LLDPE - PVC spread is 1736 yuan/ton [9]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of rebar is 166.0 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September(10) - January, and September(10) - May contracts of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided. The May - January spread of rebar is 23.0 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot - rolled coil from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the rebar/iron ore ratio is 3.91 [18]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are given. On January 5, 2026, the basis of copper is - 770 yuan/ton [28]. 3.4.2 London Market - Data such as LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss of LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on January 5, 2026, are presented. For example, the LME premium of copper is 38.60, and the import profit/loss is (1543.51) [31]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are provided. On January 5, 2026, the basis of soybeans - 1 is - 163 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads between May - January, September - January, and September - May contracts of soybeans - 1, soybeans - 2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given. The May - January spread of soybeans - 1 is 56 yuan/ton [37]. - **Inter - commodity Spreads**: The spreads of soybeans - 1/corn, soybeans - 2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are presented. On January 5, 2026, the soybeans - 1/corn ratio is 1.92 [37]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 26, 2025, to January 5, 2026, are shown. On January 5, 2026, the basis of CSI 300 is 20.75 [48]. - **Inter - period Spreads**: The spreads of next - month - current - month and next - quarter - current - quarter of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided. The next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 is - 10.6 [48].

◼ 品种观点参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 低位震荡 | 基本面表现不佳，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需两端有所变化，建筑钢厂开始复产，螺纹产量持续增加，且存有增量空间，低供应 格局待变，利好效应趋弱，关注后续变化。与此同时，螺纹钢需求表现依然偏弱，高频需求指标继 续位于近年来同期低位，且下游行业未改善，后续将延续季节性弱势，继而承压钢价。总之，螺纹 钢供应在回升，而 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The commodity market is showing positive trends, with the China Commodity Price Index rising for eight consecutive months, indicating improved market supply - demand and increased business confidence [3]. - In the metal market, precious metals and industrial metals are rising, and copper prices are hitting new highs due to supply shortages [5]. - The bond market has a complex situation. In the short - term, there may be trading opportunities due to policy changes, but in the medium - term, it is likely to be slightly weak [28][29][30]. - The stock market in Hong Kong has a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index slightly up and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down [34]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2% [1]. - In November 2025, social financing scale was 24888 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3900 billion yuan [1]. - In November 2025, CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - China will continue to cooperate with Venezuela in various fields, and the China - Venezuela cooperation is protected by international and bilateral laws [2]. - Nine departments in China issued a notice to promote green consumption, with 20 specific measures [2]. - The US ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 dropped slightly, and new orders and employment continued to decline [3]. 3.2.2 Metal - Precious metals and industrial metals rose on Monday, with silver up over 6% and copper prices hitting new highs [5]. - Copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton due to a strike in a Chilean copper mine and supply shortages [5]. - Battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide prices hit new highs in over two years on January 5 [7]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will launch coking coal options after the holiday [9]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Trump said the US may subsidize oil companies to rebuild Venezuela's energy infrastructure [10]. - It is predicted that the average price of US crude oil in 2026 will be $58.15 per barrel, and Brent crude oil will be $61.27 per barrel [10]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - Malaysia's palm oil reserves in December 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month to 2.99 million tons [12]. - Indonesia exported 20.85 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to November [12]. - The egg industry has not entered the stage of accelerated capacity elimination [12]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On January 5, the central bank conducted 13.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 468.8 billion yuan [13]. - In December 2025, the central bank net - injected 50 billion yuan through open - market treasury bond trading, 100 billion yuan through MLF, and 7.1 billion yuan through SLF [13][14]. 3.3.2 Key News - The CSRC held a symposium on the comprehensive prevention and control system of financial fraud in the capital market [15]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will support Yangtze River protection projects with over 100 billion yuan [16]. - In 2026, the issuance of local government bonds has started, and the issuance scale in the first quarter is expected to exceed 2 trillion yuan [18]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Review - The inter - bank bond market was weak, with most interest - rate bond yields rising and bond futures mostly falling [22]. - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performances, with some bonds falling and some rising [22]. - The convertible bond index rose, and some convertible bonds had significant price changes [23]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 84 basis points to 6.9806 at 16:30 [27]. - The US dollar index fell 0.14% to 98.32, and most non - US currencies rose [27]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - CITIC Securities believes that the final draft of the fund sales new rules may be a case of "bad news is good news" for the bond market [28]. - Xingzheng Fixed - Income suggests that the risk - parity strategy can achieve risk dispersion [29]. - Huatai Fixed - Income thinks the bond market is facing both positive and negative factors in 2026 [29]. 3.4 Stock Market - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.03% to 26347.24 points, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.09%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.22% [34]. - Southbound funds had a net purchase of 18.723 billion Hong Kong dollars, with Kuaishou and Xiaomi Group being the top net - bought stocks [34].

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 5, 2026 - **Research Focus**: Copper and aluminum futures market analysis 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, copper prices showed little fluctuation. Post - holiday, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 mark. In December, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were implemented, market liquidity recovered, and capital risk appetite was high. Macro factors drove copper prices up, while the industry followed passively, with the basis and monthly spreads showing weak performance. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) contradicts the strong macro expectations. Short - term futures prices may need to consolidate through fluctuations and wait for the industry to catch up [5]. - **Aluminum**: With the strong performance of copper prices, aluminum prices are making up for lost ground. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. In December, aluminum prices broke through the 22,000 mark and approached 23,000, mainly benefiting from the sector effect brought by the continuous rise of copper prices and the increasing expectation of aluminum replacing copper in home appliances. Before the holiday, the copper - aluminum ratio declined from a high level, and the short - term make - up increase of aluminum prices was obvious. At the industrial level, the basis and monthly spreads remained weak, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Although the short - term upward momentum of aluminum prices is limited, as long as copper prices remain strong, aluminum prices may continue to make up for lost ground [6]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Macro Factors - During the double - holiday period last week, both domestic and foreign funds had a strong willingness to take profits, causing copper prices to decline from a high level. Additionally, the continuous rise of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - No specific analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than the graphical data presentation, including copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [13][17][18]. 3.2.2 Copper Mine Shortage - On January 2, 2026, a strike began at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, owned 70% by Capstone Copper and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials. About half of the workers participated in the strike. The mine is expected to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of copper in 2025. During the strike, production will drop to 30% of the normal level, potentially tightening the global copper supply. Copper prices soared 42% in 2025, and this event may put upward pressure on copper prices in early 2026 [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 31, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic copper was 247,100 tons, a weekly increase of 44,900 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 645,500 tons, a weekly increase of 5,500 tons. The continuous rise of short - term copper prices significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - SMM estimated that the total output of the copper rod industry in December would decline by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Similar to copper, no in - depth analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than graphical data, including aluminum price trends, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [33][41][34]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 31, 2025, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.0207 million tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.2107 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Before the holiday, alumina prices rebounded significantly. It is believed that the macro - economic recovery drove its rebound from a low level. Its price elasticity is greater than that of electrolytic aluminum, which may lead to a decline in the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants from a high level [43][44]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. On December 31, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 515,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories showed a divergence. The low - level depletion of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory provided support for aluminum prices [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline with fluctuations. As aluminum prices rose to the 23,000 level, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices, and the operating rate may continue to decline. On January 1, 2026, the aluminum rod inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [51][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: The conclusion is consistent with the core view, emphasizing the impact of macro factors on copper prices, the contradiction between industrial pressure and macro expectations, and the need to focus on the long - short game at the 100,000 mark [56]. - **Aluminum**: The conclusion is also in line with the core view, highlighting the make - up increase of aluminum prices due to the strong performance of copper prices, the weak industrial basis and monthly spreads, and the need to focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average [56].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the New Year's Day holiday, long - position funds took profits, causing the overall precious metals to decline from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas gold prices fluctuated little, with New York gold oscillating below $4400. On January 3rd, the US military launched an air strike on Venezuela and captured its president, which will heat up the market's risk - aversion sentiment and lead to a higher opening of gold prices. After the weekend fermentation, beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend on Monday. If the situation escalates or triggers a major - power game, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [5][22] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report shows the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price [9][11] 1.2 Indicator Changes | Indicator | January 2nd | December 26th | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | COMEX Gold | $4,341.90 | $4,562.00 | - 4.82% | | COMEX Silver | $72.27 | $79.68 | - 9.30% | | SHFE Gold Main Contract | N/A | $1,016.30 | N/A | | SHFE Silver Main Contract | N/A | $18,319.00 | N/A | | US Dollar Index | 98.46 | 98.03 | + 0.43% | | USD/CNH | 6.97 | 7.00 | - 0.49% | | 10 - year US Treasury Real Yield | 1.94 | 1.91 | + 0.03 | | S&P 500 | 6,858.47 | 6,929.94 | - 1.03% | | US Crude Oil Continuous | $57.33 | $56.93 | + 0.70% | | COMEX Gold - Silver Ratio | 60.08 | 57.26 | + 4.93% | | SHFE Gold - Silver Ratio | N/A | 55.48 | N/A | | SPDR Gold ETF | 1,065.13 | 1,071.13 | - 6.00 | | iShare Gold ETF | 493.78 | 492.64 | + 1.14 | [10] 2. Risk - Aversion Sentiment Boosts Gold Prices - Before the New Year's Day holiday, due to strong profit - taking willingness of funds, precious metals collectively declined from their highs. During the domestic holiday, overseas fluctuations were small. On January 3rd, the US military's air strike on Venezuela and the capture of its president heated up the market's risk - aversion sentiment. If the conflict is strictly confined between the US and Venezuela, the "boot - landing" effect may dominate, leading to a short - term rise and then fall of gold prices. If it triggers regional turmoil or major - power confrontation, the safe - haven demand will continue [12] - Last week, the US stock market also showed a trend of rising and then falling before the holiday, with strong profit - taking willingness of funds. However, from the VIX index, the overall market atmosphere was good [14] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - On January 2nd, the combined holdings of SPDR and iShares gold ETFs were 1558.91 tons, a decrease of 4.86 tons from the previous week. As gold prices declined from their highs last week, the holdings of gold ETFs also slightly decreased [16] - Last week, precious metals declined collectively, with silver falling nearly 10% and gold falling nearly 5%. The gold - silver ratio showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. Currently, the gold - silver ratio is below 60, breaking through the low since 2021, which reflects to a certain extent that the short - term increase of silver is relatively large [19] 4. Conclusion - Repeats the core view that the US military's actions in Venezuela will heat up risk - aversion sentiment, leading to a higher opening of gold prices. Short - term beware of a higher - opening and lower - moving trend, and if the situation escalates, gold prices will get medium - term support. Short - term attention should be paid to the resistance at the $4400 mark of New York gold [22]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 多空僵持，煤焦低位震荡 核心观点 焦炭：节前焦煤现货暂稳运行，焦企利润无明显改善，生产积极性一般。 下游钢厂年末减产过后，进入新一年度将开始逐渐复产，铁水产量回升的 速度和幅度或是焦炭期货短期走向的重要影响因素。整体来看，下游复产 和冬储或给焦炭价格带来一定支撑，预计主力合约下跌存一定阻力，但能 否向上反弹仍需关注需求改善情况以及政策端有无新增利好。 焦煤：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产、减产的煤矿将陆 续复产，焦煤产量或边际回升，叠加进口量维持高位，焦煤供应压力依然 存在。不过，元旦过后，下游钢厂也存有复产预期，预计将带动上游焦 煤、焦炭等原材料需求好转。整体来看，1 月焦煤预计将迎来供需两增局 面，上下游复产节奏或是市场短期博弈焦点，现阶段焦煤仍缺乏向上持续 性驱动，价格或维持低位震荡运行，密切关注煤炭产业政策。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话： ...