1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On January 6, 2026, all stock indices rose significantly. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reached 2.8322 trillion yuan, an increase of 265 billion yuan from the previous day. The continuous increase in trading volume after the holiday is mainly due to the return of market liquidity and the rising expectation of policy benefits. The policy emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, which drives the significant rise of related industrial chain stocks. The margin trading balance and margin trading amount have both increased, indicating strong willingness of leveraged funds to enter the market and optimistic market sentiment. In the medium to long term, the expectation of policy benefits and the trend of net capital inflow are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. With the implementation of policy benefits in 2026 and continuous net capital inflow, the risk appetite of the stock market will continue to rise. It is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility are within the normal range, a bull spread or ratio spread strategy with a mild bullish view can be adopted [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 6, 2026, the 50ETF rose 1.92% to close at 3.235; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 1.55% to close at 4.919; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 1.52% to close at 4.996; the CSI 300 Index rose 1.55% to close at 4790.69; the CSI 1000 Index rose 1.43% to close at 7864.90; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 2.17% to close at 7.961; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 2.15% to close at 3.141; the ChiNext ETF rose 0.67% to close at 3.303; the Shenzhen 100ETF rose 1.08% to close at 3.553; the SSE 50 Index rose 1.90% to close at 3158.76; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.76% to close at 1.51; and the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 1.89% to close at 1.46 [5]. - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options on January 6, 2026, and their changes compared with the previous trading day were provided, such as the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 58.87 (previous day: 91.01), and the position PCR was 107.49 (previous day: 109.04) [6]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets for various options were provided, such as the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 13.26%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.68% [7]. 3.2 Related Charts - **SSE 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [9][11][13][17]. - **SSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [22][24][26][32]. - **SZSE 300ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 300ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [35][37][39][41][45]. - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 300 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [48][50][52][54][58]. - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Included charts of the CSI 1000 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [61][64][66][68][72]. - **SSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [75][77][79][83]. - **SZSE 500ETF Options**: Included charts of the SZSE 500ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [88][90][92][97]. - **ChiNext ETF Options**: Included charts of the ChiNext ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [101][103][105][111]. - **Shenzhen 100ETF Options**: Included charts of the Shenzhen 100ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [114][116][118][124]. - **SSE 50 Index Options**: Included charts of the SSE 50 index trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [127][129][131][137]. - **STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [140][142][144][148]. - **E Fund STAR 50ETF Options**: Included charts of the E Fund STAR 50ETF trend, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curve, and implied volatility of at - the - money options for each term [151][153][154].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 6 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 商品情绪偏暖，钢矿触底回升 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.06%日跌幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应在回升，而需求表现偏弱，基本面表现不佳，淡季钢价继续 承压，相对利好的是政策预期，预计钢价延续震荡偏弱运行态势，关注 钢厂生产情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日涨幅，量增仓缩。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，产业矛盾未加剧，价格延续低位震荡，但 产量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，一旦其走弱则供需 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Copper**: Last night, copper prices increased with rising positions and maintained strong performance today with continuous growth in positions. The closing price today rose nearly 4,000 yuan/ton compared to yesterday. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. Against the backdrop of a shrinking copper industry supply and renewed disturbances at the mine end, there was a resonance of macro and industrial benefits. In the short term, macro and industrial expectations are driving copper prices up, but the industry is in a weak - reality stage with continuously rising global electrolytic copper inventories [6]. - **Aluminum**: Last night, Shanghai aluminum prices increased with rising positions, and the main contract price reached the 24,000 yuan mark. It maintained a strong and volatile operation today with a decrease in positions. After the New Year's Day holiday, the domestic macro - environment continued to warm up, leading to a general rise in assets. The industry followed passively, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Recently, the strong performance of aluminum prices has benefited to some extent from macro - easing and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. In the short term, aluminum prices are approaching the highs of 2022 and 2021, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: Last night, the main contract price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly below 135,000 yuan, and today it rose close to the 140,000 - yuan mark. Since this week, the macro - environment has been favorable, and the general rise of non - ferrous metals has largely driven up nickel prices. Since late December, nickel prices have rebounded from the 110,000 - yuan mark to the 130,000 - yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decrease in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the position volume of nickel prices has not continued to rise, which may reflect insufficient willingness of funds to drive. Continuous attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 140,000 - yuan mark [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the New Year's Day holiday, copper prices reached a new high. The downstream demand of refined copper rods in various fields remained weak, and orders did not improve significantly compared to before the holiday. Some refined copper rod enterprises continued to suspend production and said they would wait and see the copper price trend to formulate production plans. On January 5, LME copper prices exceeded $13,000 per ton for the first time due to a strike at a Chilean copper mine, supply gap expectations, and low inventories in LME - certified warehouses. On January 5, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared to the 31st [10]. Aluminum - On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared to the 25th [10]. Nickel - On the supply side, with the continuous rise of the futures price, the market sentiment was bullish, and upstream enterprises continued to raise their quotes. On the demand side, there was a small amount of rigid - demand replenishment from downstream, and some traders were actively buying, pushing up the transaction price. Overall, the market transaction price continued to rise, and the price of high - nickel pig iron was expected to continue to increase [11]. 2. Related Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is that they will run with a bias towards strength in a volatile manner, and the medium - term view is that they will be volatile. The reference view is also a volatile and upward - biased trend. The main driving logic is the policy - favorable expectations, the inflow trend of funds, the strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, and the return of market liquidity after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2603 variety, the short - term view is "volatile", the medium - term view is "volatile", the intraday view is "biased towards strength", and the reference view is "volatile and upward - biased". The core logic is the unchanged policy - favorable expectations and the trend of net capital inflow [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include IF, IH, IC, and IM. The intraday view is "biased towards strength", the medium - term view is "volatile", and the reference view is "volatile and upward - biased". The core logic is that the stock indexes rose significantly yesterday, with the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets reaching 2567.2 billion yuan, an increase of 501.5 billion yuan from the previous day. After the holiday, market liquidity returned, policy - favorable expectations continued to ferment, and the risk appetite of the stock market significantly recovered. The strong resilience of macro - economic indicators, policy - favorable expectations, and the net capital inflow trend drive the upward movement of the stock index. The policy has determined to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026, which will boost domestic demand and promote the performance restoration of listed companies. With the decline of the domestic risk - free interest rate, funds seeking high returns will increase the proportion of stock market asset allocation, and the long - term trend of net capital inflow into the stock market is established [5]

一、简评 1、国内 47 港到货量为 2824.70 万吨，环比增 96.90 万吨，再度回升且位于相对高位；其中澳矿、巴 西矿分别增 72.10、70.60 万吨，非澳巴矿环比降 45.70 万吨，高位有所回落。 2、海外矿石发运高位回落，全球矿石发运总量为 3213.70 万吨，环比减 463.42 万吨，年末冲量结束 后如期回落。其中主流矿商多数减量，四大矿商合计减 272.34 万吨万吨；细分地区看澳矿、巴西矿、非 澳巴矿分别降 174.12、142.68、146.62 万吨，均迎来明显减量。 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 3、按船期推算国内港口澳巴矿到货量趋稳，而矿商发运在回落，供应有所收缩，关注持续性。 铁矿石到货、发运周度数据（2026 年第 1 周） 二、矿石到货与发运数据 | | | | | | 铁矿石周度到货和发运数据 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 本期值 | 上期值 | 周度变化 | 周度变 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint - The report expects Treasury bond futures to oscillate and consolidate in the short - term, with upper pressure and lower support. The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still medium - to - long - term expectations of monetary policy easing [1][5] 3. Directory Summaries 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "weakening". The reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while medium - to - long - term easing expectations remain [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". Yesterday, Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly retraced. In the long - run, due to insufficient domestic demand, the monetary policy is expected to be loose in the medium - to - long - term, and there is still an expectation of policy interest rate cuts in 2026, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, in the short - term, the macro data shows strong resilience, reducing the urgency of monetary policy easing. Coupled with the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter, the momentum for the rebound of Treasury bond futures is weak [5]

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1050 美分/蒲式耳震荡。虽巴西收割量偏低，但美豆出口窗口收窄，而阿根廷南部 高温少雨引发市场关注，带动美豆粕低位反弹，后续需紧盯巴西收割进度与阿根廷天气变化。国内市场静 待拍卖消息；豆粕延续近强远弱格局，远月受美豆疲软、人民币升值等压制，短期低位震荡反复。整体看， 豆类市场多空交织，美豆聚焦南美收割与天气博弈，国内则受现货报价松动及政策预期影响，短期难破震 荡区间。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货甲醇早报-2026-01-06 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 甲醇 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多因素提振，甲醇震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 甲醇（MA） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：节前海外供应"硬收缩"带来最强支撑，这是节前支撑甲醇价格上行的最关键因素。作 为主要进口来源地的伊朗，目前正面临严重的供应干扰。同时国内港口甲醇库存去化，带动了港口 现货价格的修复，基差走强。这种现货端的坚挺直接反馈到了期货市场上，增强了多头信心。本周 一夜盘，国内甲醇期货再度大幅反弹，外部进口预期下降盖过弱现实需求疲软。预计本周二国内甲 醇期 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 需求支撑不足，焦煤低位整理 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 现货承压，焦炭弱势震荡 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：截至 1 月 2 日当周，全国 523 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run in a strong - leaning pattern on the short - term, mid - term, and intraday basis, with an overall view of strong - leaning operation [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "strong - leaning". The overall view is "strong - leaning operation" [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: The weakening of geopolitical risks in Thailand and Cambodia has reduced the expected decline in Southeast Asian rubber supply, weakening the bullish drive. However, domestic Yunnan and Hainan natural rubber production areas are in the off - season, reducing domestic supply pressure. Southeast Asia is in the peak tapping season. Meanwhile, domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and December heavy - truck sales are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, the rubber market maintains a strong - leaning pattern [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Mid - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and mid - term views are "oscillation", while the intraday view is "strong - leaning". The overall view is "strong - leaning operation" [1][7]. - **Core Logic**: Optimistic domestic automobile production and sales data, better - than - expected December heavy - truck sales data, and the strong - leaning oscillation pattern of Shanghai rubber futures indirectly support synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand outlook for synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere is dominant [7].