Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, SHFE copper opened higher and moved up, with the open interest rising continuously. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. The spot discount turned into a premium, and the social inventory of electrolytic copper continued to rise. The copper price stood above the 100,000 yuan mark again, with obvious capital inflows and strong upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [6]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price opened higher and moved up in the morning, with a significant increase in open interest and an intraday increase of more than 3%. The market sentiment was good after the holiday and non-ferrous metals generally increased. High aluminum prices inhibited downstream consumption, and the industry followed passively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. The recent strong performance of the aluminum price was partly due to the loose macro - environment and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper. When copper was strong, the copper - aluminum ratio began to decline from a high level before the holiday. In the short term, the aluminum price approached the 24,000 yuan mark, the high levels in 2021 and 2022, and continuous attention should be paid to technical pressure [7]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price rose first and then fell, and then the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 134,000 yuan, with the open interest rising continuously during the day. Since late December, the nickel price has rebounded from the 110,000 yuan mark to the 130,000 yuan mark, mainly due to the policy expectations in Indonesia leading to a decline in the supply expectation in 2026. In the short term, the nickel price increased with rising open interest, reversing the downward trend. Technically, SHFE nickel has reached the rebound high in March 2025, with certain technical pressure and intensified long - short competition [8]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 5, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 271,400 tons, an increase of 47,100 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 24,300 tons compared with the 31st [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 5, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 703,000 tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared with the 29th and an increase of 91,000 tons compared with the 25th [10]. - **Nickel**: On January 5, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 133,700 - 142,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 138,150 yuan/ton, a rise of 600 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 7,000 - 7,800 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 7,400 yuan/ton, a decline of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 200 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: There are charts on nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z0001617 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：chendong@bcqhgs.com 本人具有中国期货业协会授 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 原油 | 专题报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 原油 专业研究·创造价值 地缘诡谲暗涌 原油溢价仍存 摘 要 2026 年全球原油市场正处于供需基本面与地缘政治风险的深 度博弈期。国际能源署（IEA）预测，全年原油市场日均过剩量将 达 380-409 万桶，占全球需求的 4%，供应过剩格局成为市场运行 主基调。然而，中东、南美、俄乌三大关键区域的地缘局势动荡持 续发酵，形成对供应端的潜在冲击，与供需基本面形成反向拉扯。 中东地区，伊朗社会危机与以伊影子战争升级、红海航运通道安全 风险上升，叠加海湾国家转型期的政策不确定性，构成原油供应的 核心地缘风险点；南美地区，委内瑞拉在美制裁高压下开启对美石 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure of methanol is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [3]. - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support, and the supply in Iran, the main import source, is facing serious interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, which has enhanced the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [4][47] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 Methanol Spot Price Rose Slightly and the Basis was Slightly at a Premium - In the week of December 31, 2025, the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China was 2,222 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton week - on - week; in South China, it was 2,192 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton week - on - week; in North China, it was 2,000 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton week - on - week. - Taking the mainstream spot price of methanol in East China as the spot reference price and the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract as the futures reference price, the basis was slightly at a premium, with a premium of 6 yuan/ton as of the week of December 31, 2025 [9] 3.1.2 Import Expectation Declined and Methanol Stabilized and Rebounded - With the expected decline in external imports, the domestic supply pressure is expected to ease. In the last week before the festival, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a stable and rebound trend, with the weekly price rising by 2.55% to 2,216 yuan/ton, and the premium of the May - September spread widened to 34 yuan/ton [18] 3.2 Methanol Market Supply - Demand Situation Analysis 3.2.1 Domestic Methanol Operating Rate Slightly Increased and Weekly Output Slightly Increased - In December 2025, the domestic methanol market maintained a pattern of loose supply, with high operating rates of enterprise equipment and high - level weekly output. Although the profit of coal - to - methanol turned negative and the loss continued to expand, the domestic supply still increased. As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, up 0.21% week - on - week, 2.57% month - on - month, and 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly output of methanol was 2.0722 million tons, up 16,200 tons week - on - week, 48,600 tons month - on - month, and 232,100 tons compared with 1.8401 million tons in the same period last year [20] 3.2.2 Delayed Unloading of Overseas Methanol at Ports and Increased Import Pressure - Affected by sanctions, weather, and special port fees, the unloading progress of imported methanol in October 2025 was lower than expected, and a large amount of goods were postponed to November for unloading. Iran's production did not significantly decrease due to high temperature and the "staggered peak maintenance" strategy. Some Iranian goods changed their routes to Shandong, which affected the port distribution structure but did not significantly reduce the total import volume. In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, down 195,000 tons month - on - month but up 332,500 tons (30.64%) compared with the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 12.6969 million tons, up 321,600 tons (2.60%) compared with the same period last year. The high import volume in November increased the inventory pressure in coastal areas and put downward pressure on methanol prices in the fourth quarter [23][24] 3.2.3 Methanol Downstream Demand Improved and Olefin Profit Slightly Rebounded - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the operating rate of formaldehyde was 31.70%, up 0.08% week - on - week; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.79%, down 0.41% week - on - week; the operating rate of acetic acid was 77.61%, up 1.89% week - on - week; the operating rate of MTBE was 58.12%, down 1.00% week - on - week. The average operating load of coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.32%, down 0.83 percentage points week - on - week and 1.44% month - on - month. As of December 31, 2025, the futures profit of methanol to olefin was - 300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week but down 304 yuan/ton month - on - month [26] 3.2.4 Port Inventory Increased Significantly and Inland Inventory Increased Slightly - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, up 113,200 tons week - on - week, down 35,900 tons month - on - month, and up 312,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, up 18,600 tons week - on - week, up 49,000 tons month - on - month, and up 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the same period last year [34] 3.2.5 The Profit Margin of Domestic Coal - to - Methanol Slightly Widened - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the manufacturing cost of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 2,120 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,370 yuan/ton. With the futures price of the methanol 2605 contract at 2,161 yuan/ton on December 26, 2025, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Northwest China was 41 yuan/ton, and the cost - profit rate was about 1.93%. In Shandong, the manufacturing cost was 2,022 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,273 yuan/ton, with a profit of 139 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 6.87%. In Inner Mongolia, the manufacturing cost was 1,988 yuan/ton, and the full cost was 2,238 yuan/ton, with a profit of 173 yuan/ton and a cost - profit rate of about 8.70% [39][40] 3.3 Conclusion - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply is the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival. Iran, the main import source, is facing serious supply interference. The destocking of domestic port methanol inventory has driven the repair of port spot prices and strengthened the basis, enhancing the confidence of long - positions in the futures market. Before the festival, the domestic methanol futures fluctuated and stabilized, and the slight increase was the result of the "strong expectation (decrease in imports)" outweighing the "weak reality (weak demand)". It is expected that the domestic methanol futures may maintain a fluctuating and strengthening trend after the festival [47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The crude oil market is currently being pulled by intermittent geopolitical risks and a weak supply - demand structure. In the short term, geopolitical risks may dominate, and it is expected that the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures may maintain a volatile and strong trend after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic that suppresses oil prices, and the concern of global supply surplus still exists [5][76]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: As of the week ending December 31, 2025, the spot price of crude oil produced in the Shengli Oilfield area in China was 57.72 US dollars per barrel (equivalent to 405.7 RMB per barrel), with a week - on - week decrease of 3.2 US dollars per barrel. The main contract of domestic crude oil futures, 2602, closed at 432.2 RMB per barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 12.5 RMB per barrel. The basis was 26.5 RMB per barrel, and the degree of contango decreased slightly [8]. - **Geopolitical risks and price trends**: In the last week before the holiday, as geopolitical risks were gradually digested by the market, the crude oil premium began to be reversed. The weak supply - demand expectation in the oil market dominated, causing the prices of domestic and international crude oil futures to show a volatile downward trend. The domestic crude oil futures 2602 contract was weak, with a cumulative decline of 2.17% to 432.2 RMB per barrel during the week [11]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply and Demand Remain in an Excess Expectation, and the Production Increase Rhythm Slows Down - **OPEC+ production increase**: Since the second quarter of 2025, eight major OPEC+ oil - producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia have launched a phased production increase policy. From April to September, the cumulative production increase exceeded 2.1 million barrels per day. In the fourth quarter, the production increase continued. In November, it was decided to continue the production increase plan in December. However, to cope with the possible seasonal off - peak demand in the first quarter of 2026, production increase will be suspended from January 2026 for three months. In November 2025, OPEC member countries' crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, with a year - on - year increase of 1.711 million barrels per day [22][23][24]. - **Non - OPEC oil - producing countries**: Non - OPEC+ countries' capacity expansion has further aggravated the supply surplus. As of the week ending December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the United States was 409, with a week - on - week increase of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 74. The daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.827 million barrels, with a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 0.254 million barrels per day [42]. - **Northern Hemisphere demand**: The United States, the world's largest crude oil consumer, has obvious seasonal changes in crude oil demand. From December to February is the peak season for heating oil consumption. Entering December, the demand for crude oil in the Northern Hemisphere will enter the peak season, and the inventory will change from accumulation to depletion. However, the EIA and IEA have both lowered their oil price forecasts and increased their forecasts for oil supply growth, while lowering their forecasts for demand growth [44][45][46]. - **US inventory and refinery operation rate**: As of the week ending December 26, 2025, US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 1.934 million barrels week - on - week to 422.9 million barrels, and the refinery operation rate was 94.7%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [48]. - **China's crude oil imports**: In November 2025, China's crude oil imports were 50.891 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.88%. The daily average import volume reached 12.38 million barrels, the highest level since August 2023. In 2026, China's crude oil production is expected to increase by 1.2% - 1.5%, demand is expected to reach 758 million tons, and imports are expected to reach 530 million tons [57][58]. 3.3 South American Geopolitical Turmoil Continues to Escalate, and Crude Oil Premium Increases - **Short - term impact**: In December 2025, the South American geopolitical situation heated up. The US military's actions against Venezuela triggered market concerns, leading to a short - term increase in the risk premium of international crude oil futures prices. However, this increase was mainly due to market sentiment rather than a substantial supply interruption [65]. - **Long - term impact**: In the long - term, the actual supply capacity of Venezuela is limited, and the global crude oil market is facing a structural supply - demand imbalance. The South American geopolitical risk is difficult to reverse the overall weak pattern of oil prices. After the initial sharp fluctuations, oil prices are expected to return to being dominated by fundamentals [66][67][69]. 3.4 Net Long Positions in the International Crude Oil Market Increased Significantly Week - on - Week - As of December 16, 2025, the average non - commercial net long position of WTI crude oil was 54,896 contracts, a week - on - week decrease of 3,537 contracts and a significant decrease of 9,975 contracts from the November average. As of December 23, 2025, the average net long position of Brent crude oil futures funds was 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts and a significant decrease of 56,093 contracts from the November average [71]. 3.5 Conclusion - During the New Year's Day holiday, the US military's actions in Venezuela and the threat from President Trump may lead to an increase in oil prices after the holiday. However, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term factor suppressing oil prices. In the short term, domestic and international crude oil futures prices may maintain a volatile and strong trend [76].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol 2605 contract is expected to run strongly in the short - term, with a short - term view of "oscillation", a medium - term view of "oscillation", and an intraday view of "stronger". It is predicted to maintain an oscillating and stronger trend after the holiday [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Methanol Market Conditions - The short - term view of methanol 2605 is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "stronger", and the reference view is "stronger operation" [1] Driving Logic of Methanol Price - The "hard contraction" of overseas supply before the holiday provides the strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, the main source of imports, is facing serious supply disruptions. The reduction of methanol inventory in domestic ports has led to the repair of port spot prices, strengthening the basis. The firmness of the spot market has enhanced the confidence of long - positions. The short - term upward trend of domestic methanol futures before the holiday is the result of "strong expectations (decreased imports)" outweighing "weak reality (weak demand)" [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on January 5, 2026, including basis, inter - period spreads, and inter - variety spreads for different commodities such as thermal coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1][2][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thermal Coal - The report provides the basis data of thermal coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025. During this period, the basis values are - 125.4, - 129.4, - 131.4, - 131.4, and - 123.4 respectively, and the spreads of 5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, and 9 - month vs 5 - month are all 0.0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals 3.2.1 Energy Commodities - It presents the basis data of fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025 [6] 3.2.2 Chemical Commodities - **Basis**: The basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, and PP from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [8] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given [9] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [9] 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [19] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 1 - month, 9 - month(10) vs 5 - month) of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given [18] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [18] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Domestic Market - The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [27] 3.4.2 London Market - The LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin on December 31, 2025, are presented [30] 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [36] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (5 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 1 - month, 9 - month vs 5 - month) of soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, corn, sugar, and cotton are given [36] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of soybeans No.1/corn, soybeans No.2/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, soybean meal - rapeseed meal, soybean oil - palm oil, rapeseed oil - soybean oil, and corn - corn starch from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are presented [36] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from December 25, 2025, to December 31, 2025, are provided [47] - **Inter - period Spreads**: The inter - period spreads (next month - current month, next quarter - current quarter) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In the context of weakening cost - end support and the expectation of a weakening supply - demand structure, the domestic styrene futures are expected to have limited upward momentum in the future and may maintain a volatile and stable trend [2][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Supply Situation - In recent years, the domestic styrene supply side has shown the dual characteristics of "accelerated capacity expansion + high inventory". From 2021 - 2023, styrene capacity expanded by 9.25 million tons/year, an increase of 76.81%. In 2025, the capacity increased by 11.46% year - on - year, with new production capacity of 1.87 million tons/year, mainly in East China and coastal areas, and the annual output is expected to increase by 14.26% year - on - year [3]. - The annual maintenance loss decreased by nearly half compared with last year, and the overall industry operating rate remained high. Only in the fourth quarter, there were plans to reduce the load or conduct maintenance on devices with a capacity of 4.08 million tons/year, which partially relieved the supply pressure. As of the week of December 26, 2025, domestic styrene production was 354,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25%, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 70.70%, a week - on - week increase of 1.57% [3]. - Inventory accumulation has been one of the main driving factors for the price decline throughout the year. Although the main ports in China showed a continuous de - stocking trend in mid - to - late December, the de - stocking space was limited due to high source concentration. After the festival, with the resumption of maintenance work, the inventory accumulation pressure reappeared [3]. Demand Situation - The total demand of the three major downstream industries of styrene, EPS, PS, and ABS, accounts for more than 70%. In 2025, although there was new capacity of 2.115 million tons/year put into production, the demand growth rate of 10.93% still lagged behind the supply growth rate, and the supply - demand mismatch problem was prominent [4]. - The ABS industry performed well, with the cumulative output from January to October increasing by 27.53% year - on - year, but the high output was not fully digested, and the accumulation of finished product inventory led to intensified industry losses. The EPS industry showed structural differentiation. The demand for cold - chain logistics packaging was stable, but the real - estate downturn suppressed the consumption in the building insulation field. The PS industry was in the dilemma of "excess in the low - end and shortage in the high - end", and the industry operating rate was only 55%, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - In terms of terminal demand, white - goods had policy support but with mixed results. In November 2025, the production of air conditioners and color TVs in China decreased by 23.4% and 5.0% year - on - year respectively, while the production of washing machines and refrigerators increased by 5.5% and 5.6% respectively. From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,440.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. The real - estate market remained weak, making it difficult to change the demand expectation for styrene [4]. Cost Situation - Styrene has a strong correlation with the price of upstream pure benzene, which accounts for nearly 80% of its production cost. In 2025, due to the bottom - oscillating international oil price and the loose supply - demand of pure benzene, the price center of pure benzene continued to move down. The continuous inventory accumulation in the main ports of pure benzene and the abundant import resources made its price difficult to rise, weakening the cost support for styrene [5]. - After the recent decline of domestic and foreign crude oil futures prices, the downward pressure on pure benzene increased, further weakening its support for styrene. In terms of industrial chain profit distribution, the downstream industries of EPS, PS, and ABS had poor profitability due to the difficulty of following the raw material price increase, which further suppressed the enthusiasm for raw material procurement [5].

宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 资讯早班车-2026-01-05 期货研究报告 二、商品投资参考 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 制造业 PMI | % | 50.10 | 49.20 | 50.10 | | 20251231 | 2025/12 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 50.20 | 49.50 | 52.20 | | 20251215 | 2025/11 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | | 24888.00 8178.00 | 23288.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251212 | 2025/11 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10.60 | 10.60 | 12.70 | | ...

期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-05 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2602 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：随着泰国和柬埔寨两国宣布停战，地缘风险因素弱化，东南亚橡胶供应回落预期消 ...