酒鬼酒 000799.SZ 公司研究 | 年报点评 动销疲软，静待消费环境回暖 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 根据年报以及一季报，对 25-26 年下调收入、毛利率，上调费用率。 我们预测公司 25-27 年每股收益分别为 0.53、0.62、0.96 元（原预测为 25-26 年 2.13、2.58 元）。考虑到公司现金流充足，我们采用 FCFF 估值法，权益价值为 149 亿元，对 应目标价 45.89 元，维持买入评级。 风险提示：消费升级不及预期、内参酒鬼销售不及预期、费用投入居高导致利润不及 预期、食品安全事件风险。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,830 | 1,423 | 1,248 | 1,318 | 1,572 | | 同比增长 (%) | -30.1% | -49.7% | -12.3% | 5.6% | 19.3% | | 营业利润(百万元) | 726 | 16 | 179 | 219 | 354 | | ...

公司报告 | 季报点评 森马服饰（002563） 证券研究报告 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 公司发布 25 年一季报 营收 31 亿，同比-2%，归母净利润 2 亿，同比-38%，扣非归母净利润 2 亿， 同比-43%； 截至 3 月 31 日，包括加盟和直营在内的全系统终端动态零售数据同比中个 位数增加。 毛利率 47%，同比持平，归母净利率 7%，同比-4pct； 销售费率 29%，同比+4pct；管理费率 5%，同比+1pct；研发费率 1%，同比 持平；财务费率同比-0.85%，同比+1pct。 育儿补贴制度或利好童装业务 3 月 13 日，内蒙古呼和浩特及时出台实施育儿补贴细则，据国家卫生健康 委，截至 24 年 10 月，全国已有 23 个省份，在不同层级开始探索实施生 育补贴制度，或一次性发放现金，或定期给予补贴、实行税收减免。生育 补贴政策落地后，从宏观层面看，有望带来生育率的回升，从而利好童装。 公司将继续以创新驱动发展，坚持零售转型的方向，优化单店盈利模型， 迭代 52 周 MD 机制，实现商品的精准规划与高效流转；持续强化对消费者 的洞察能力，深入了解消费者的偏好、需求和购买行为，提升商 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.152 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 32.64%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 246 million yuan, up 27.26% year-on-year [2] - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 313 million yuan, a 24.27% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 81.42 million yuan, which is a 52.06% increase year-on-year [2][4] - The company is experiencing significant growth in overseas revenue, with Q4 2024 international sales reaching 1.03 billion yuan, although this represents a decline of 10.77% year-on-year [4] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity, with new projects such as a 30,000-ton soluble dietary fiber project and a 15,000-ton crystallized sugar project launched in May 2024 [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 868 million yuan in 2023 to 2.470 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 27.1% [6] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 193 million yuan in 2023 to 565 million yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 28.3% [6] - The gross margin is forecasted to improve from 32.7% in 2023 to 35.5% in 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.60 yuan in 2023 to 1.75 yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios decreasing from 47.32 to 12.01 over the same period [6] Growth Opportunities - The company is expected to benefit from the release of new production capacities and the ongoing demand for dietary fibers and health sweeteners, particularly in international markets [4][5] - The anticipated reduction in tariff levels is expected to further support the company's international expansion strategy [5]

| [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 33.50 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 47.50/28.10 | | 总股本（百万股） | 209 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 194 | | 流通股比例（%） | 92.90 | | 总市值（亿元） | 70 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 65 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 可孚医疗（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 301087） 公司点评 产品丰富+渠道多元，收入增长持续稳健 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-05-04 | -31% -16% -2% 13% 28% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 可孚医疗 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：谭国超 执业证书号：S0010521120002 邮箱：tangc@hazq.com 分析师：李婵 执业证书号：S0010523120002 邮箱：lichan@hazq.com [Table_CompanyRepo ...

公司发布 24 年年报及 25 年一季报，24 年实现营业收入 2.73 亿元，同比 减少 6%，归母净利润-9974 万元，亏损扩大 779 万元，扣非归母净利润-1.46 亿元，亏损扩大 3359 万元。业绩下滑主要原因为：1）激光器市场竞争激 烈，工业市场光纤耦合模块等产品价格进一步下滑；2）存货水平较高， 相应的资产减值准备计提影响了利润；3）23 年购买的信托产品出现兑付 风险，23 年确认 4800 万元公允价值变动损失，24 年确认 1200 万元损失； 4）政府补助减少，其他收益同比减少 1176 万元。 25 年一季度业绩大幅改善 25 年一季度公司实现营业收入 9428 万元，同比增长 80%、环比增长 35%， 归母净利润-750 万元，同比减亏 1195 万元，环比减亏 2885 万元。一季 度收入大幅增长，主要来自市场拓展较好，高功率产品收入增长，同时前 期布局的光通信等产品获得终端客户认可并实现批量出货，部分贡献了一 季度收入。1Q25 单季毛利率为 28.7%，同比提升 3pct、环比提升 15pct。 公司报告 | 年报点评报告 长光华芯（688048） 证券研究报告 1Q25 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 三一重工（600031）2025 年一季报点评 强推（维持） 扣非归母同比增长 78.5%超预期，降本控费 盈利弹性凸显 事项： 公司发布 2025 年一季度报告，2025 年一季度营业总收入 211.8 亿元，同比增 长 18.77%，归母净利润 24.7 亿元，同比增长 56.40%，扣非归母净利润 24.0 亿 元，同比增长 78.54%。 评论： [ReportFinancialIndex] 主要财务指标 | | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万) | 78,383 | 90,362 | 108,053 | 129,646 | | 同比增速(%) | 5.9% | 15.3% | 19.6% | 20.0% | | 归母净利润(百万) | 5,976 | 8,682 | 10,813 | 13,593 | | 同比增速(%) | 32.0% | 45.3% | 24.5% | 25.7% | | 每股盈利(元) | 0.71 | 1.02 | 1.28 | 1.6 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to see profit contributions from new materials and high-end overseas fabrics by 2026, with recent investments in smart manufacturing and information management enhancing operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 1.5 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 5%, and a net profit of 150 million yuan, up 117% year-on-year [1]. Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts revenues of 6.4 billion yuan, with net profits projected at 459.2 million yuan, reflecting an 11.91% growth compared to 2024 [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to remain stable at 24%, with a net profit margin of 10% for Q1 2025, an increase of 5 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Operational Strategy - The company is enhancing its production methods through the LTPS (Lutai Production System) to improve cost efficiency and quality control [2]. - A global marketing network is being developed to expand market reach and strengthen relationships with strategic clients, focusing on leisure product development [3]. Financial Projections - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to increase from 0.56 yuan in 2025 to 0.71 yuan by 2027, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio decreasing from 11x to 9x over the same period [4][5]. - The total revenue is expected to grow from 6.4 billion yuan in 2025 to 7.8 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [5].

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·半导体 长川科技（300604） 2024年报&2025一季报点评：业绩持续高增， 看好公司打造国产测试设备龙头 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 1,775 | 3,642 | 5,227 | 6,715 | 8,309 | | 同比（%） | (31.11) | 105.15 | 43.53 | 28.47 | 23.75 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 45.16 | 458.43 | 849.15 | 1,120.52 | 1,437.67 | | 同比（%） | (90.21) | 915.14 | 85.23 | 31.96 | 28.30 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.07 | 0.73 | 1.35 | 1.78 | 2.28 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 584.68 | 57.60 | 31.09 | 23.56 | 18.37 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company has shown a significant improvement in Q1 2025 performance, with a revenue increase of 1.35% year-on-year, despite a decline in net profit by 17.71% [2][5] - The company is expected to continue its recovery trajectory, driven by a rebound in demand for dairy products and effective cost management strategies [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a total revenue of 115.78 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.24% year-on-year, and a net profit of 8.45 billion yuan, down 18.94% year-on-year [2][4] - For Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 33.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 4.87 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase in revenue and a decrease in net profit [2][4] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 improved to 37.82%, up 1.80 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to a higher proportion of high-margin products [4][5] Segment Performance - In Q4 2024, the liquid milk segment saw a revenue decline of 13.08%, while the milk powder segment experienced an increase of 8.72% [4] - For Q1 2025, the liquid milk revenue decreased by 3.06%, while the milk powder segment grew by 18.65% [4] Future Outlook - The company plans to achieve a total revenue of 119 billion yuan in 2025, with a profit target of 12.6 billion yuan [4][5] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 1.67 yuan, 1.83 yuan, and 1.99 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 18X, 16X, and 15X [5][6]

——迎驾贡酒 24 年报&25Q1 点评 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-05-04 | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | | 43.92 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | | 80.19/43.90 | | 总股本（百万股） | | 800 | | 流通股本（百万股） | | 800 | | 流通股比例（%） | | 100.00 | | 总市值（亿元） | | 351 | | 流通市值（亿元） | | 351 | 迎驾贡酒（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 603198） 公司点评 | 系列酒与省外拖累 | | --- | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 -50% -31% -12% 7% 26% 5/24 8/24 11/24 2/25 迎驾贡酒 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：邓欣 执业证书号：S0010524010001 邮箱：dengxin@hazq.com 联系人：郑少轩 执业证书号：S001 ...