2026 年 03 月 01 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李振方 S0350524080003 | | | lizf@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 关注油价上涨，关注化工旺季到来—看好全球化 工反内卷大周期+AI 需求大周期 ——基础化工行业周报 最近一年走势 2026 年 2 月 26 日，国海化工景气指数为 94.19，较 2026 年 2 月 19 日上升 0.22。 投资建议： 从全球范围看，中国化工优势企业的成本和效率优势已经非常稳固，龙 头企业已经进入了业绩长周期向上的阶段。同时，对于部分供给端受限 的行业，随着需求的回升，这部分行业的景气度有望持续提升，值得重 点关注。碳排放管控下的反内卷有望重估中国化工行业，后续措施有望 使全球以及中国化工行业产能扩张大幅放缓，并对部 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Views - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are expected to boost the safe-haven appeal of precious metals like gold and silver [2]. - Despite inventory accumulation in copper, prices remain strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve considerations from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is anticipated to experience price fluctuations as the consumption season approaches, supported by macroeconomic factors [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong amid renewed concerns over supply disruptions from Myanmar [8]. - Lithium prices are rising due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are showing strength as demand recovers with the resumption of production [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions are driving up demand for gold and silver as safe-haven assets, with specific companies recommended for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Despite a significant increase in global copper inventories, prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and expectations of domestic demand recovery [3]. - **Aluminum**: The market is expected to see price volatility as downstream production resumes post-holiday, with macroeconomic conditions remaining favorable [4]. - **Nickel**: Prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel manufacturers [5]. - **Tin**: Prices are expected to experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns stemming from Myanmar's political situation [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, influenced by export restrictions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: The price of cobalt has risen by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, supported by recovering demand as production resumes [10]. Key Companies - Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao, among others, reflecting strong growth potential in the non-ferrous metals sector [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including companies like Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and China Hongqiao [11]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are driving increased demand for precious metals as a safe haven, suggesting a strong long-term investment value in this sector [2]. - Despite a significant increase in copper inventories, the price remains strong due to ongoing demand and strategic reserve initiatives from both China and the US [3]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but overall demand is anticipated to recover as downstream production resumes [4]. - Nickel prices are on an upward trend due to supply constraints and increased inquiries from steel mills, indicating a positive outlook for the nickel market [5]. - Tin prices are expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and cautious purchasing behavior from downstream enterprises [8]. - Lithium prices are rising sharply due to export bans from Zimbabwe, which may tighten supply in the coming months [9]. - Cobalt prices are also showing strength as demand from precursor companies increases, with expectations of a stable recovery in the market [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The report highlights the benefits of precious metals in times of geopolitical uncertainty, recommending companies such as Xinyi Silver and Zijin Mining for investment [2]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: The report notes a 32,200-ton increase in global copper inventories but emphasizes that prices remain resilient due to strategic reserve initiatives and ongoing demand [3]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is experiencing a significant inventory build-up, but demand is expected to recover as production resumes post-holiday [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have increased by 4.7% to 141,560 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and demand from steel mills [5]. - **Tin**: The report indicates that tin prices may experience strong fluctuations due to supply concerns from Myanmar [8]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: Lithium prices have surged, with battery-grade lithium carbonate reaching 174,000 CNY/ton, driven by supply disruptions from Zimbabwe [9]. - **Cobalt**: Cobalt prices have increased by 3.4% to 440,000 CNY/ton, with demand from precursor companies showing signs of recovery [10].

Group 1: Macro and Strategy Insights - The macro view for March indicates a gradual improvement in risk appetite, influenced by external factors such as the Iran conflict and expectations surrounding the US-China summit, which may lead to a more neutral market impact [7] - The strategy perspective suggests that the market lacks a clear main line, with a tendency for continued oscillation, recommending a flexible approach while waiting for trend opportunities [8] - The quantitative view highlights the absence of a main line in March, with market capitalization expected to decline further, presenting a potential opportunity for positioning [9] Group 2: March Gold Stock Portfolio - The selected gold stock portfolio for March includes: - Electronics: Shiyun Circuit - Consumer Electronics: Hongrida - Communication: Kexin Innovation Source - Media: Perfect World - Light Industry: Yingke Regeneration - Chemicals: Xinfengming - Coal: Hengyuan Coal Power - Non-ferrous: Salt Lake Co. - Machinery: Zoomlion - Agriculture: Youran Animal Husbandry [11] - The rationale for Shiyun Circuit is its deep ties with Tesla and potential benefits from emerging fields such as commercial aerospace and intelligent driving, which could lead to significant growth opportunities [11] - Hongrida is transitioning its focus towards AI chip cooling and optical communication, with expectations for substantial production scale in 2026, driven by recent advancements in 3D printing technology [14][15] - Kexin Innovation Source is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI liquid cooling solutions, with anticipated breakthroughs in both domestic and international markets [18][19] - Perfect World is expected to see revenue growth from its game "Yihuan," with projections indicating potential earnings exceeding market expectations [22][24] - Yingke Regeneration is forecasted to experience accelerated revenue growth due to the rising demand for easy-install plastic wall panels and the operational efficiency of its Vietnamese base [26][29] - Xinfengming is anticipated to benefit from a recovery in polyester filament profitability, supported by a slowdown in industry capacity expansion [32] - Hengyuan Coal Power is viewed as a premium coking coal asset, with expected price increases driven by global supply constraints [36][39] - Salt Lake Co. is expected to benefit from rising lithium prices and strong demand for potassium fertilizers, enhancing its market valuation [43][44] - Zoomlion is positioned for growth through its diversified machinery offerings and global expansion strategies, with a focus on non-excavation machinery [48][50] - Youran Animal Husbandry is set to benefit from a cyclical recovery in raw milk prices and beef cattle, with significant growth potential in both its raw milk and cattle businesses [55][56]

证券研究报告|行业研究周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 3 月 1 日 节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the escalation of the Middle - East situation and AI panic trading dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and significant sectoral differentiation. The market has partially priced in the escalation of the Middle - East situation in advance, and defensive assets such as gold, military, energy, and utilities are better than elastic assets. The AI panic trading is hard to end, and the market is chasing "HALO" assets [7]. - The trading trend of technology contraction (upstream hardware > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) has been the main trading line in the US stocks since last November. The AI panic trading has affected various industries, including traditional industries and network security stocks [11]. - After about 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed, the geopolitical situation may become the dominant factor in the short - term. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq [12]. - In the short - term, it is recommended to maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the crowded and fragile market structure of US stocks. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. - After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading". A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week, and it is recommended to maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors in the short - term and keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs US Stocks - **Overall Market Performance**: This week, the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" and "AI panic trading" dragged down the US stocks, with the three major indices falling and sectoral differentiation. Defensive assets such as utilities, materials, and energy led the gains, and the "HALO" trading became the main trading line [3][7]. - **AI Panic Trading**: The AI panic trading is hard to end in the short - term. It has spread from software to industries such as real - estate agencies, wealth management, and insurance agencies in the equity market. In the credit market, the high - yield spread of US technology stocks has significantly increased. Since last November, the trading trend of technology contraction has been the main line, and various AI - related events have continuously affected the market [9][11]. - **Earnings Reports and Geopolitical Impact**: About 80% of the US stock earnings reports have been disclosed. Referring to the experience of the past three years, the 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support for the Nasdaq. In the short - term, the geopolitical situation may be the dominant factor [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a relatively defensive stance (military and energy) due to potential variables in the Middle - East situation and the fragile market structure. In the long - term, US stock investment should return to fundamental endogenous factors, and hardware and "HALO" assets are favored [13]. Chinese - Funded Stocks - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Chinese - funded stocks had a good start, with prominent sectoral differentiation. The trading line is mainly around the "escalation of the Middle - East situation" (leading sectors: non - ferrous metals, petroleum and petrochemicals, and military) and "AI panic trading" (leading sectors: upstream hardware of AI and North American power export chain). A - shares outperformed Hong Kong stocks this week [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short - term, maintain a balanced allocation of defensive sectors (energy, military, non - ferrous metals, etc.) due to potential geopolitical variables. Keep a balanced allocation of technology and physical cycles in Chinese - funded stocks, with the technology contraction (upstream infrastructure (domestic and foreign demand chains) > mid - stream cloud computing > downstream application software) [14].

节后多数金属价格继续回暖，后续仍看好关键 金属全面行情 [Table_Title2] 有色-能源金属行业周报 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ►印尼供应扰动提升市场供给偏紧预期，对镍矿价格或 有支撑 截止到 2 月 27 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 17685 美元/ 吨，较 2 月 20 日上涨 3.09%，LME 镍总库存为 287976 吨， 较 2 月 20 日增加 0.09%；沪镍报收 14.15 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 1.05%，沪镍库存为 60,791 吨，较 2 月 13 日增加 0.03%；截止到 2 月 27 日，硫酸镍报收 33 万元/吨，较 2 月 13 日价格上涨 0.30%。根据 SMM，政策端，市场正密切关注印 尼 ESDM 于 2026 年 2 月 10 日发布 2026 年镍矿 RKAB 配 额，司长 Tri Winarno 确认本年度获批产量仅为 2.6 亿至 2.7 亿 吨。这一紧缩趋势在重点项目中尤为显著：据 Eramet 官方消 息，WBN 收到的最初配额仅为 1200 万湿吨，较去年的 4200 万湿吨大幅缩减。整体市场将维持供需紧平 ...

01丨 美以联合打击伊朗 28日下午，以色列和伊朗开战。 伊军事对峙持续升级，继昨晚多国启动撤侨行动后，今天美国联合以色列正式对伊朗发动袭击。 中东是全球石油的主产区，霍尔木兹海峡是石油运输的咽喉要道，全球每 10 桶油里，就有 2 桶从这里过。 一旦冲突升级，石油供应 就会断供，油价必然会上涨 ，油价上行直接增厚上游油气开采企业盈利，同时带动油气企业资本开支增加，利好油服设备与油运企 业。 除了石油， 航运也会受影响 ，国际物流的主要路线经过中东，冲突一闹，运费直接翻倍，那些做国际物流的公司，订单都排到明年 了。 还有 军工 ，地缘紧张，各国都会加大军费，军工企业迎来发展机遇 最后是 黄金 ，大炮一响，黄金万两。每次地缘冲突，大家都怕风险，就会把钱换成黄金，黄金价格都大概率迎来上涨。 此外，伊朗是甲醇、乙二醇等化工品的核心出口国，冲突导致出口受限，国内对应化工品供给缺口扩大， 利好国内缺口型化工板块 ； 若冲突导致SWIFT系统受限，伊朗等国可能加速使用人民币结算，将催化跨境支付（CIPS）板块的情绪行情。 通源石油（300164）：北美页岩油技术，海外订单弹性大 中海油服（601808）、杰瑞股份（002 ...

2026年2月28日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 01 锂业弹性表 证券研究报告 锂行业弹性表 （2026年2月版） 行业评级：看好 预计2026年自有矿权益产量最多的公司为：赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盐湖股份、华友钴业、紫金矿业、中矿资源； 预计2025至2027年产量增速较快的为：大中矿业、紫金矿业、盐湖股份、永兴材料、国城矿业； 增量分析： 2 添加标题 1）赣锋锂业：未来几年主要增量为Goulamina项目、Cauchari-Olaroz 盐湖、Mariana盐湖项目放量。 2）天齐锂业：未来几年主要增量为格林布什矿山三期扩建，措拉矿投产，以及SQM产能的扩张。 3）大中矿业：未来几年主要增量为鸡脚山和加达锂矿项目逐步投产增产。 4）盐湖股份：未来几年主要增量为新建4万吨项目投产放量、最新整合五矿盐湖旗下一里坪盐湖。 5）紫金矿业：未来几年增 ...

来源：@华夏时报微博 中矿资源所属津 巴布韦Bikita矿山200万吨/年锂辉石浮选厂。图源：公司财报 华夏时报记者 胡雅文 北京报道 2月26日，津巴布韦禁止锂精矿出口消息全面发酵，锂矿企业股价普遍承压，在当地有锂矿布局的上市 锂企跌幅更为明显。当日雅化集团（002497.SZ）下跌8.76%、盛新锂能（002240.SZ）下跌6.5%、中矿 资源（002738.SZ）下跌4.75%、华友钴业（603799.SH）下跌0.76%。锂矿股普遍跟跌之际，坐拥低成 本盐湖资源的盐湖股份（000792.SZ）股价逆势上涨7.76%。碳酸锂价格同步大幅上涨，现货和期货价格 一举冲破17万元/吨。而2月27日，锂价上涨预期升温，多数锂矿股实现翻红，上述下跌标的纷纷低开高 走，而盐湖股份股价则是回调微跌。 中矿资源方面告诉《华夏时报》记者，"禁令刚刚实施，公司正在积极沟通跟进。目前来说，该禁令影 响为阶段性，不具长期性。"2月26日，鑫椤资讯高级研究员钱艺告诉记者，"自有矿本是优势，锂精矿 无法运出对相关企业来说当属利空。"在他看来，在美国加速布局关键矿产资源的背景下，非洲、澳洲 和南美供给出现扰动都在预期之内，由于津巴 ...