Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [1] Core Insights - The supply and demand expectations for lithium and cobalt are reversing, indicating the start of a new price cycle [2][3] - Lithium demand is expected to recover, leading to a replenishment cycle, while supply disruptions will create a medium-term gap [2] - Cobalt supply is dominated by export quotas from sovereign nations, leading to a raw material shortage that supports prices [3] Summary by Sections Lithium - Supply disruptions from African lithium projects and stable production from South American salt lakes are expected, while China's regulatory management will lead to a temporary supply contraction of lithium mica [2] - Demand for lithium is driven by the growth of energy storage as a second growth driver after electric vehicles, with solid-state batteries opening up potential for increased lithium consumption [2] - From the second half of 2025, supply disruptions in Jiangxi and strong downstream demand will lead to a price rebound for lithium, maintaining a tight supply situation through 2026-2027 [2] Cobalt - The supply side is significantly influenced by the export quota system in the Democratic Republic of Congo, resulting in a definitive raw material shortage [3] - Demand for cobalt products is currently weak due to high prices, and the recovery of demand hinges on the adoption of solid-state batteries [3] - The Congolese government has a strong ability and willingness to support prices, with expectations for cobalt prices to remain strong in the medium term [3] Investment Strategy - In an upward cycle, it is essential to consider the self-reinforcing attributes of stock prices and commodity prices, alongside fundamental factors [4] - The interplay between stock prices, futures, and spot prices creates a positive feedback loop, where stock prices often react first to anticipated changes [4] Investment Recommendations - Recommended lithium-related stocks include Yongxing Materials, Ganfeng Lithium, and Tianqi Lithium, among others [5] - Recommended cobalt-related stocks include Huayou Cobalt and others [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 有色金属 宏观情绪降温，金属价格普调 贵金属：沃什鹰派担忧叠加高拥挤度，金银创历史最大单日跌幅。北京时间 1 月 31 日凌晨， 现货白银价格一度暴跌 36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过 12%， 盘中跌穿每盎司 4700 美元，遭遇 40 年来单日最大跌幅。周五特朗普政府准备提名凯文·沃 什为新一任美联储主席，但此次抛售或为多重因素叠加，既包括美联储主席人选的公布，也 涉及更宏观的资金流动层面，多杀多放大了行情的下跌幅度。沃什支持"降息与缩表并行" 的政策组合，其逻辑是通过缩减资产负债表控制通胀，为降低名义利率创造条件。但降息旨 在增加市场流动性、刺激经济增长，而缩表则是通过减少美联储资产负债表规模来回收流动 性、抑制通胀。两者操作方向相反，可能导致政策效果相互抵消，引发市场对政策意图的困 惑。我们认为其政策主张仍将受到美国经济基本面和外部条件的掣肘，特朗普一系列政策行 为所引发的海外投资者对美债担忧仍然存在，若缺乏美联储支持，长债利率下降可能仍有难 度，后续关注新提名主席表态。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛 ...

Suspension and Resumption of Trading - Fenglong Co., Ltd. has completed the suspension review and resumed trading, with UBTECH committing not to inject assets within 36 months [1] - Jiamei Packaging has also completed the suspension review and resumed trading [1] - Jihua Group's controlling shareholder is planning a change in control, leading to stock suspension [2] - Minexplosion Optoelectronics intends to acquire 51% of Xiamen Xizhi Precision Technology Co., Ltd. in cash, and has resumed trading. Xizhi focuses on the R&D, production, and sales of micro-drilling needles, deepening its core consumables in PCB manufacturing [2] External Investments and Daily Operations - Jerry Holdings has signed a sales contract for gas turbine generator sets for a U.S. data center worth 1.265 billion yuan [3] - Liyang Chip plans to raise no more than 970 million yuan through a private placement for integrated circuit testing projects [4] - Aoshikang intends to invest 1.82 billion yuan in a high-end printed circuit board project, which will achieve an annual production capacity of 840,000 square meters of high multilayer boards and HDI boards upon completion [4] - Huayou Cobalt plans to collaborate on building an integrated battery industry chain project in Indonesia [5] - Parker New Materials aims to raise no more than 1.58 billion yuan for key components of high-end energy equipment and integrated intelligent manufacturing projects [6] - Seres reported January automobile sales of 45,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 104.85% [7] Performance Changes - Zhongji Xuchuang expects a net profit of 9.8 billion to 11.8 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 89.50% to 128.17%, with a continuous increase in the proportion of high-speed optical modules [8] - Xinyi Sheng anticipates a net profit of 9.4 billion to 9.9 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 231.24% to 248.86%, benefiting from sustained growth in computing power investment and rapid demand for high-speed products [8] - Cambrian expects a net profit of 1.85 billion to 2.15 billion yuan in 2025, turning profitable year-on-year [9] - Guoxuan High-Tech forecasts a net profit of 2.5 billion to 3 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 107.16% to 148.59%, driven by rapid growth in demand for new energy vehicles and energy storage [9] - Lio Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of 190 million to 250 million yuan in 2025, turning profitable year-on-year [10] - HNA Holding anticipates a net profit of 1.8 billion to 2.2 billion yuan in 2025, turning profitable year-on-year [11] - *ST Songfa expects a net profit of 2.4 billion to 2.7 billion yuan in 2025, turning profitable year-on-year [12] - China International Capital Corporation forecasts a net profit of 8.542 billion to 10.535 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 50% to 85% year-on-year, driven by steady growth in core business segments [12] - Shandong Gold expects a net profit of 4.6 billion to 4.9 billion yuan in 2025, an increase of 56% to 66% year-on-year, mainly due to optimized production layout and rising gold prices [12] - Obsidian expects a net profit of 123 million yuan in 2025, turning profitable year-on-year, focusing on niche industry demands and product development [12][13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Views - The report expresses optimism for key metals in the future despite recent price declines due to market panic [1] - Supply tightening expectations remain for nickel, cobalt, antimony, lithium, rare earths, tin, tungsten, and uranium, which may support prices in the coming months [1][2][8][11][13][14][22] Nickel and Cobalt Industry Summary - As of January 30, LME nickel settled at $17,540 per ton, down 5.85% from January 23, with total LME nickel inventory increasing by 0.90% to 286,284 tons [1] - Supply constraints are expected due to increased rainfall in Indonesia affecting mining and shipping operations, alongside regulatory pressures leading to conservative sales strategies [1] - The Indonesian government plans to reduce nickel mining quotas to 250-260 million tons, which is anticipated to support nickel prices [1][16] - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply tightness, with electrolytic cobalt priced at 446,000 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 1.83% [2][17] Antimony Industry Summary - Antimony prices have increased, with antimony ingot averaging 162,500 yuan per ton as of January 29, up 1.25% [6] - Supply constraints are expected to persist due to production halts at Hunan Zhenqiang Antimony Industry, which may reduce output by over 2,000 tons [6][19] Lithium Industry Summary - Lithium carbonate prices fell to 160,400 yuan per ton as of January 30, down 6.22% [8] - Supply disruptions are anticipated due to environmental assessments delaying mining operations in Jiangxi, impacting future supply [8] - Demand is expected to remain strong, potentially stabilizing prices despite recent declines [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Summary - The report highlights tightening supply expectations for rare earths, particularly due to new regulations in Vietnam and ongoing geopolitical tensions [20] - The global rare earth supply chain remains heavily reliant on China, which continues to dominate production capabilities [20] Tin Industry Summary - Tin prices are supported by uncertainties in overseas supply, with LME tin settling at $54,000 per ton as of January 30, down 0.37% [11] - Supply concerns persist due to slow recovery in Myanmar and ongoing regulatory actions in Indonesia [11][12] Tungsten Industry Summary - Tungsten prices have seen significant increases, with white tungsten concentrate priced at 597,500 yuan per ton as of January 30, up 11.58% [13] - Supply constraints are expected to continue due to strict mining quotas and environmental regulations [13][21] Uranium Industry Summary - Uranium prices remain high, with global market prices at $63.51 per pound, supported by ongoing supply tightness and geopolitical factors [14][22] - The report indicates a persistent supply-demand gap in the uranium market, with expectations for continued price support [14][22]

2026 年 02 月 01 日 有色金属 全球政策预期突变，关注稀土等国内主 导品种 市场一夜之间，政策预期突然转变，金银领跌商品市场，并引发美股 一系列连锁反应，核心因特朗普提名凯文沃什担任美联储主席。沃什 倡导"缩表 + 降息"的政策组合，偏鹰派的策略给市场浇一盆冷水， 金银等品种出现杠杆杀多现象。短期沃什的提名受阻风险高，5 月任 期交接前均有变数。总之，在政策未完全明朗前，短期金属可能高波 震荡，需注意控制风险。当前可关注受宏观影响较小的板块（稀土、 钨、钽），以及春节后的工业金属（铜铝等）。长期金属逻辑未变， 全球新产业链发展持续拉动金属需求，而供给端的约束持续存在，美 元信用长期走弱是趋势。中长期持续看好稀土铜铝钨金银锡锂钽铌 锑铀等金属。 贵金属 金银：本周 COMEX 金银分别收于 4879.6、84.8 美元/盎司,环比分别 -1.94%、-16.0%。特朗普总统宣布将提名凯文·沃什担任下届美联储 主席，其前期任职期间经常支持更高利率引发市场对美联储后续货币 政策的担忧，金银价格调整幅度较大。央行和 etf 资金积极增持黄金 驱动延续，美元信用担忧仍存，短期价格回调但持续看好金价中长期 上 ...

Group 1: Regulatory Updates - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is soliciting public opinions on the revised "Guidelines for Information Disclosure of Publicly Raised Securities Investment Funds" to enhance investor-centric disclosure and improve investment behavior stability [1][2] - The CSRC is focusing on deepening capital market reforms, improving the adaptability of regulations, and promoting the integration and high-quality development of various stock exchanges [2][3] - New environmental disclosure guidelines have been issued for listed companies, focusing on pollution emissions, energy utilization, and water resource management to enhance sustainable development awareness [3] Group 2: Company News - Windfang Co. has decided to terminate its acquisition of a 51% stake in Beijing Yanling Jiaye Intelligent Technology Co., citing that the conditions for the transaction are not fully met [5][6] - Guangdong Mingzhu expects a net profit of 166 million to 203 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 2908.49% to 3577.04% [5] - Xiamen Minbao Optoelectronics plans to acquire a 51% stake in Xiamen Xizhi Precision Technology Co., expanding its business into high-end PCB drilling [9] Group 3: Financial Performance - Companies like Liyang Chip and Kexing Pharmaceutical are projecting significant profit increases for 2025, with expected growth rates of 640.16% to 804.64% and 328.83% to 455.89%, respectively [5][6] - The company "Guidance Compass" reported a revenue of 2.146 billion yuan for 2025, a 40.39% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 22.8 million yuan, up 118.74% [6] Group 4: Market Movements - China Gold announced a stock price increase of 75.18% from January 23 to January 30, significantly outpacing the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.11% during the same period [8] - Tianqi Lithium announced the successful production of its first batch of chemical-grade lithium concentrate from its expansion project, enhancing its resource supply for lithium chemical products [10]

Group 1 - The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chairman by President Trump has sparked hawkish expectations, leading to a significant sell-off in the global precious metals market, with silver dropping over 35% and gold nearly 13% [3][5] - The Federal Reserve's policy framework may see a notable shift if Warsh assumes leadership, as Deutsche Bank suggests a unique combination of "rate cuts and balance sheet reduction" could emerge under his guidance [3] - The U.S. Treasury Department reported a projected decline in national fiscal revenue for 2025, with total revenue expected to be 21.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The World Trade Organization ruled that U.S. clean energy subsidy measures violate WTO rules in the dispute initiated by China regarding the Inflation Reduction Act [4] - The China-UK economic relationship is set to deepen with the signing of four economic cooperation documents, focusing on "Export to China" initiatives and service trade agreements [4] - The Panama Supreme Court ruled that the contract for the operation of ports along the Panama Canal held by CK Hutchison is invalid, prompting a response from the Chinese government to protect its legitimate rights [4] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is working to enhance the attractiveness and flexibility of refinancing systems to support the capital market's stable growth [6] - The A-share market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.96% and significant sell-offs in gold stocks [6] - The CSRC is revising the registration management measures for listed companies to clarify the types of strategic investors and enforce a minimum holding requirement of 5% [6] Group 4 - The regulatory body has issued new guidelines for fund sales and marketing practices, prohibiting collaborations with unqualified internet influencers and requiring the removal of misleading features from fund platforms [7] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is addressing issues related to the surge in IPO applications expected in 2025, highlighting deficiencies in the preparation of listing documents [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is monitoring stocks with abnormal fluctuations and has reported several cases of suspected violations to the CSRC [8]

Group 1 - The core point of the announcement is that Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co., Ltd. has signed a framework agreement with PT Aneka Tambang Tbk and PT Industri Baterai Indonesia to collaborate on an integrated battery industry project in Indonesia, focusing on the entire supply chain for electric vehicle batteries [3][7][13] - The framework agreement is a preliminary agreement that outlines the intent for cooperation, with specific investment amounts and collaboration methods still under negotiation [2][14] - The agreement aims to establish Indonesia as a production base for electric vehicle batteries and related products, contributing positively to the sustainable economic development of Indonesia [7][13] Group 2 - The agreement includes multiple sub-projects such as mining, smelting, refining, precursor and cathode materials, battery production, and battery recycling, with specific production capacities outlined for each sub-project [8][9] - The expected production capacities include 100,000 tons of nickel products from pyrometallurgical smelting, 50,000 tons from hydrometallurgical smelting, 105,000 tons of precursors, 30,000 tons of cathode materials, and 20 GWh of nickel-based batteries [9][10] - The collaboration will involve forming joint ventures for each sub-project, with specific equity structures to be determined after feasibility studies [10][11] Group 3 - The signing of the framework agreement is seen as a strategic move for the company to deepen its global layout and promote high-quality development, enhancing its core competitiveness [13] - The agreement is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's current year operating performance, with future impacts dependent on the progress of specific projects [2][13] - The agreement's effectiveness is contingent upon meeting several preconditions, and it may be terminated under certain circumstances, such as failure to meet conditions within specified timeframes [11][12]