Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **China Chemicals** industry, focusing on the implications of new U.S. port fees on ethane carriers for Chinese companies, particularly **Wanhua Chemical** [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **New U.S. Port Fees**: Effective October 14, 2025, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will impose a port service fee of **$50 per ton** on ethane carriers owned or operated by Chinese entities, escalating to **$80, $110, and $140** per ton in subsequent years [2][7]. 2. **Impact on Wanhua Chemical**: Wanhua, which imports U.S. ethane for its ethylene crackers, may face increased costs estimated at **Rmb1 billion** in 2026, rising to **Rmb2 billion** by 2028. This represents **6% to 7.6%** of the current consensus net profit for FY26/27 [2][7]. 3. **Mitigation Strategies**: Wanhua is reportedly working on strategies to mitigate these costs; however, failure to do so may lead to downward revisions in consensus earnings [2][7]. 4. **Geopolitical Tensions**: The combination of geopolitical tensions and China's anti-involution measures could lead to a significant slowdown in China's chemical capacity additions from **2026 to 2030** [2][7]. 5. **Stock Recommendations**: Preferred regional companies in light of these developments include **PetroChina, LG Chem, Hengli, PTTGC, and Reliance** [2][7]. Additional Important Points 1. **Limited Impact on Satellite Chemical**: Satellite Chemical operates a fleet of vessels that are largely unaffected by the new U.S. port fees, as most are owned by non-Chinese companies [11]. 2. **Delays in Satellite's ECC Phase 3**: Construction of Satellite Chemical's third ethylene cracker has been paused due to U.S.-China tensions, which may lead to downward revisions in consensus earnings for **2027-28** [11]. 3. **Wanhua's Ethylene Cracker Updates**: Wanhua's Yantai 2 ethylene cracker is fully operational, while the Yantai 1 cracker is undergoing feedstock conversion and is expected to restart in November 2025 [11]. 4. **Potential Benefits for Non-Chinese Projects**: The slowdown in Chinese ethane demand may benefit ethane cracking projects outside China, with companies like **Reliance** and **ONGC** planning to switch to ethane for better economics [11]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: A significant slowdown in Chinese net chemical capacity additions is anticipated, which may lead to a rebalancing of global supply and demand dynamics, positively impacting regional chemical companies [11]. Conclusion The conference call highlights significant challenges and potential shifts in the China Chemicals industry due to new U.S. port fees and geopolitical tensions. Companies like Wanhua Chemical may face increased costs, while other regional players could benefit from changing market dynamics.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [76]. Core Insights - The polyurethane sector shows mixed price movements with pure MDI averaging 17,914 CNY/ton (+336 CNY/ton), polymer MDI at 14,493 CNY/ton (-293 CNY/ton), and TDI at 13,315 CNY/ton (-150 CNY/ton) [2]. - In the oil, coal, and gas olefin sector, ethane and propane prices decreased, while coal remained stable. Ethylene averaged 5,580 CNY/ton (-124 CNY/ton) and polypropylene remained unchanged at 6,800 CNY/ton [10]. - The coal chemical sector saw slight increases in synthetic ammonia and acetic acid prices, with synthetic ammonia at 2,175 CNY/ton (+3 CNY/ton) and acetic acid at 2,430 CNY/ton (+15 CNY/ton) [10]. Summary by Sections 1. Polyurethane Sector - Average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 17,914 CNY/ton, 14,493 CNY/ton, and 13,315 CNY/ton respectively, with corresponding gross profits of 4,716 CNY/ton, 2,295 CNY/ton, and 2,106 CNY/ton [2][17][20]. 2. Oil, Coal, and Gas Olefin Sector - Ethane and propane prices are 1,343 CNY/ton (-130 CNY/ton) and 3,763 CNY/ton (-46 CNY/ton) respectively. Ethylene's theoretical profit from ethane cracking is 949 CNY/ton (+39 CNY/ton) [2][10][34]. 3. Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,175 CNY/ton, 1,596 CNY/ton, 3,929 CNY/ton, and 2,430 CNY/ton respectively, with gross profits of 195 CNY/ton, -68 CNY/ton, -194 CNY/ton, and 160 CNY/ton [2][10][41]. 4. Related Listed Companies - Key companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and Xinheng [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, the port destocking rate has slowed down, domestic production capacity utilization has declined, and downstream capacity utilization has decreased. There is still inventory pressure in PA6, nylon filament, and MDI [4]. - For styrene, short - term maintenance continues, new device production impacts, downstream capacity utilization has increased but port inventory pressure persists, overseas demand is weak, and inventory pressure continues [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and Styrene Futures and Spot Prices, Basis, and Inter - period - Not elaborated in the content, only figure names are mentioned such as pure benzene and styrene futures contracts, spot prices, basis, and inter - period spreads [9][10][17] 2. Styrene Supply - The arrival volume of styrene in East China is 11,900 tons (-27,300 tons). The overall styrene factory capacity utilization is 71.88% (-1.73%), with different rates in different regions: East China 71.42% (+3.35%), Shandong 62.46% (-13.08%), and South China 80.53% (-2.17%) [1]. - In the short term, maintenance continues, satellite petrochemical is under maintenance, and new device production from Jihua, Guangxi Petrochemical, etc. impacts [4]. 3. Styrene Downstream Demand - EPS capacity utilization is 62.52% (+21.78%), PS capacity utilization is 53.80% (-0.80%), ABS capacity utilization is 73.10% (+0.60%), UPR capacity utilization is 34.00% (+14.00%), and butadiene - styrene rubber capacity utilization is 70.20% (-0.20%) [1]. - EPS has a seasonal post - festival increase, PS capacity utilization continues to decline, ABS capacity utilization rebounds from a low level, and the finished product inventory pressure of the three hard plastics is still large [4]. 4. Styrene Inventory - The East China port inventory of styrene is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), and the factory inventory is 193,420 tons (-443 tons). The inventory of EPS sample enterprises is 34,600 tons (+4,100 tons), PS sample enterprises is 112,050 tons (+3,350 tons), ABS sample enterprises is 257,000 tons (+6,000 tons), and butadiene - styrene rubber sample enterprises is 19,000 tons (-1,500 tons) [1]. - The port inventory pressure persists, and overseas demand is weak, increasing the import pressure on China [4]. 5. Pure Benzene Supply and Inventory - The East China port inventory of pure benzene is 90,000 tons (-1,000 tons). The pure benzene capacity utilization is 75.48% (-3.81%), and the hydro - benzene capacity utilization is 64.53% (+1.29%) [2]. 6. Pure Benzene Downstream Demand - In the CPL industry chain, the CPL capacity utilization is 92.41% (-3.59%), the PA6 capacity utilization is 79.58% (+1.37%), and the nylon filament capacity utilization is 77.50% (-0.50%) [2]. - In the phenol - acetone industry chain, the phenol - acetone capacity utilization is 78.00% (+0.00%), the bisphenol A capacity utilization is 68.90% (-5.77%), the PC capacity utilization is 77.69% (-3.23%), and the epoxy resin capacity utilization is 50.64% (-0.25%) [2]. - In the aniline industry chain, the aniline capacity utilization is 75.73% (-1.43%), the polymer MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%), and the pure MDI capacity utilization is 96.00% (+0.00%) [3]. - In the adipic acid industry chain, the adipic acid capacity utilization is 59.10% (-7.80%), the spandex capacity utilization is 77.50% (+0.00%), the PA66 capacity utilization is 60.45% (-0.82%), and the polyurethane elastomer capacity utilization is 53.50% (+1.21%) [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Report Author: Yang Honghan - Report Institution: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report Core Views - **Synthetic Rubber**: Short - term shock operation. The fundamentals of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber are under pressure, with supply growth outpacing demand growth. However, the valuation is neutral to low, and with many important macro - events, prices are expected to fluctuate [2][4][5]. - **Butadiene**: In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, inventory is neutral, and it will operate in a shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, expected to be in a weak pattern [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Synthetic Rubber Views Supply - This week, some cis - butadiene rubber plants restarted, while others stopped for maintenance. The production of high - cis butadiene rubber was 30,000 tons, a 0.18% increase from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.82%, up 0.13 percentage points. In the next period, there are no new plant restarts or shutdowns, but centralized maintenance will increase significantly at the end of October [4]. Demand - **Rigid Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises is expected to fluctuate slightly. Some enterprises are still flexibly controlling production to manage inventory. - **Substitute Demand**: The NR - BR main contract spread remains high, so the overall demand for butadiene rubber maintains a high year - on - year growth rate. Inventory - As of October 15, 2025, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,800 tons, a 1.42% increase from the previous period. After the holiday, raw material and synthetic rubber prices declined, and sample trade enterprise inventories decreased [4]. Valuation - The static valuation range of cis - butadiene rubber futures is 10,400 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the dynamic valuation is expected to gradually decline. The upper valuation limit of the market is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower theoretical valuation limit is 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Implement range strategies based on the fundamental static valuation. The upper pressure is 11,200 - 11,300 yuan/ton, and the lower support is 10,400 - 10,500 yuan/ton. - **Cross - variety**: When the NR - BR spread is at a high valuation, short the spread when it is high [5]. 3.2 Butadiene Views Supply - This week, domestic butadiene production decreased to 102,200 tons, a 2.39% decline, and the capacity utilization rate was 65.79%, down 1.58%. Next week, the sample enterprise production is expected to be about 103,800 tons, a slight increase [7]. Demand - **Synthetic Rubber**: The operating rates of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber remain high, and the demand for butadiene maintains a high year - on - year level. - **ABS**: Inventory pressure is high, and the demand for butadiene is expected to remain constant with limited incremental demand. - **SBS**: The operating rate has slightly increased, and the demand for butadiene remains at a rigid level [9]. Inventory - In the period from October 9 - 15, 2025, the total inventory of domestic butadiene samples increased slightly, with a 3.49% increase from last week. The enterprise inventory decreased by 3.23%, and the port inventory increased by 10.99% [9]. View - In the short - term, supply and demand both increase, inventory is neutral, and it will operate in a shock pattern. In the medium - to - long - term, supply pressure is the main contradiction, and the fundamentals are still under significant pressure, expected to be in a weak pattern [7]. 3.3 Industry Capacity and Production Butadiene Capacity - To match the expansion of downstream industries, butadiene capacity has been continuously expanding, with the speed and amplitude slightly faster than that of downstream industries at certain stages. In 2024, the new capacity was 380,000 tons, and in 2025, it is expected to be 860,000 tons [14][16]. Downstream Product Capacity - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber**: Many enterprises have new or expanded production capacity, such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Zhejiang Transfar Group, etc. - **Styrene - Butadiene Rubber**: Some enterprises in different regions have planned new production capacity in 2026, such as Guangxi Petrochemical and Yanshan Petrochemical [23][24]. - **ABS and SBS**: There has been significant capacity expansion in recent years. In 2024, the ABS capacity increased by 2.06 million tons, and in 2025, it is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons. For SBS, the capacity increased by 160,000 tons in 2024 and is expected to increase by 250,000 tons in 2025 [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Empty orders should be stopped for profit. The rapid decline in crude oil prices has led to a downward shift in the valuation center of chemical products, and the overall chemical valuation has stepped down. There is a need to stop losses for short positions around 6,500 yuan/ton for styrene and 5,500 yuan/ton for pure benzene in the short term, with the market mainly in a volatile pattern. In October, under the impact of overseas sanctions, some major domestic refineries are expected to reduce their loads, with an estimated monthly output loss of 2 - 4 tons of pure benzene (depending on the actual load - reduction situation). The port inventory accumulation expectations for pure benzene and styrene in October have both turned into destocking expectations. The market is mainly trading cost contradictions. Attention should be paid to stopping profit for the previously compressed BZN positions, and the upper end may weaken faster. Styrene is currently weaker than pure benzene, and the downstream 3S has clearly entered a negative feedback stage, with the downstream demand remaining unoptimistic. The short - term pattern is still volatile [3][109] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene Supply - Domestic production: The maintenance loss in September was 60,000 tons, and after October - November, the maintenance will gradually decrease to around 30,000 - 50,000 tons. The new device production pressure was relatively large in September, with 56,000 tons realized. New capacities of 25,000 tons and 41,000 tons will be put into operation in October and November respectively, mainly from Yulong Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical, Hunan Petrochemical, and Guangxi Petrochemical [3][109] - Imports: The September import volume is expected to be maintained at 400,000 - 430,000 tons. The import volume is expected to increase in the fourth quarter, with an expected import of 500,000 tons in October and high - level imports expected from November to December. The external market still has a large supply pressure [3][109] Demand - Caprolactam: CPL's operation rate is gradually recovering, and the Guangxi Hengyi Qinzhou project is about to be put into operation. The current downstream inventory of raw materials is at a neutral level [3][109] - Phenol: Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton new device will be put into operation from October to November, and Shandong Ruilin plans to start production in October. The downstream PC maintains high demand [3][109] - Aniline: Maintenance has ended one after another, and the operation rate has recovered [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, there was a continuous decline, mainly due to pre - Spring Festival market over - speculation and over - stocking, and the unfulfilled downstream production expansion expectations in the industrial chain. In the second half of the year, domestic supply continued to increase, but the market gradually shifted to a destocking pattern. From January to May 2025, the total output of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. The apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 is expected to be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. The year - on - year growth rates of apparent demand for pure benzene in 2023 and 2024 were +17.2% and +12% respectively [11] Styrene Supply - In September, maintenance was concentrated, with 79,000 tons mainly affected by Guangdong Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical. From October to November, there will still be an average monthly maintenance of 60,000 tons, mainly affected by Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Satellite Petrochemical. At the same time, new production is still being put into operation. It is expected that Jilin Petrochemical and Guangxi Petrochemical will both start production in November, with an average monthly increase in output of 40,000 tons. The phased supply will gradually decline from a high level [3][109] Demand - The downstream 3S hard plastics are in a situation of high production, high inventory, and low profit during the peak season. Currently, the downstream has entered a negative feedback stage and is generally weak [3][109] Market Situation - In the first half of 2025, the global styrene output contracted. The current situation is high inventory, neutral profit, and high production [81][83] Valuation - Absolute price valuation: Based on a crude oil price of $60, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5,500 yuan/ton. EB processing fees are expected to expand profits in the short term, but the space is limited, mainly in a volatile pattern [3][109] Strategy - Unilateral: Stop profit for empty orders - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None [3][109]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The chemical sector has experienced a decline, with the CITIC Basic Chemical Index dropping by 5.76% this week [14] - Dragon Group's acquisition of Venator UK's titanium dioxide production assets for $69.9 million is a strategic move to enhance its overseas business [3] - Dingjide's new 200,000 tons POE industrial facility has been successfully launched, marking a significant milestone in its diversification into new materials [3] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.47%, while the ChiNext Index dropped by 5.71% this week [14] - The top five sub-industries in terms of decline include synthetic resin (-10.64%) and modified plastics (-9.6%) [17] - The top ten companies with the highest gains include Sanfu Co. (+33.17%) and New Agricultural Co. (+21.48%) [18] Key Industry Dynamics - Dragon Group's acquisition is aimed at expanding its titanium dioxide production capabilities, which is crucial given the competitive landscape dominated by major players like Chemours and Tronox [3] - Dingjide's POE project is expected to support domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign technology [3] - The tire industry shows strong domestic competition, with companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4] Investment Themes - The tire sector is identified as having strong growth potential, with domestic companies showing competitive advantages [4] - The consumer electronics sector is anticipated to recover, benefiting upstream material companies [4] - The phosphorous chemical industry is expected to tighten supply due to environmental regulations, making it a focus for investment [8] - The vitamin market is experiencing supply disruptions, particularly in vitamins A and E, creating potential investment opportunities [9]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative performance for the oil and petrochemical sector, which underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index by -2.59% [9]. Core Insights - Oil prices have declined due to increased supply from the Middle East and geopolitical tensions, with WTI and Brent prices at $57.46 and $61.08 respectively, reflecting a decrease of -1.44 and -3.97 [3]. - The refining sector is experiencing a cautious market sentiment, with average refining margins for major refineries dropping to 547.82 yuan/ton, down by 71.31 yuan/ton [3]. - Polyester demand is expected to improve marginally with the onset of cooler temperatures and upcoming orders for Double Eleven, although raw material price trends remain uncertain [3]. - The ethylene market is showing weakness, with domestic prices at 6385 yuan/ton, down by 2.67% from the previous week [3]. Market Review - The oil and petrochemical sector has seen a decline in various indices, with the polyester index dropping by -7.72% and the olefin index by -4.48% [9]. - The average operating rate for major domestic refineries is reported at 81.23%, a decrease of 1.03 percentage points from the previous week [3]. - The report highlights a significant increase in commercial crude oil inventories, with a rise of 352.4 million barrels week-on-week [3]. Price Tracking - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $61.06 per barrel, reflecting a -10.43% change from the previous quarter's average [12]. - The average profit level for polyester filament yarn (POY150D) has increased to 176.46 yuan/ton, up by 60.27 yuan/ton from the previous week [3]. - The price of propylene in Shandong is reported at 6215 yuan/ton, down by 3.94% from the previous week [12].

Core Viewpoint - The report by Zhiyan Consulting highlights the growth of China's primary plastic production, projecting a significant increase in output and market potential from 2025 to 2031 [1] Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's primary plastic production reached 11.69 million tons in April 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 12% [1] - From January to April 2025, the cumulative production of primary plastics in China was 46.01 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 10.1% [1] - The report emphasizes the ongoing expansion and future prospects of the plastic products industry in China, indicating a robust market environment for investment [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the plastic industry include Hengyi Petrochemical (000703), Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493), Shanghai Petrochemical (600688), Sinopec (600028), China National Petroleum (601857), Huajin Co. (000059), Tongkun Co. (601233), Hengli Petrochemical (600346), Satellite Chemical (002648), and ST Hongda (002002) [1] - These companies are positioned to benefit from the anticipated growth in the plastic production sector, aligning with the overall market trends identified in the report [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the polyester sector, short - term supply and demand drivers are insufficient, the cost center moves down, and the sector continues its weak pattern. In the long - term, it is under pressure due to cost decline, expected supply increase, and weak demand [29]. - For methanol, in the short - term, it shows range - bound fluctuations with price volatility risks. In the long - term, it may rebound if the signals are positive [47][48]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Sector Macro and Crude Oil Information - India may stop buying Russian oil, which could reconfigure global trade flows and tighten supply. The US and Russia will hold a meeting, and the IEA predicts an increase in global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 with weak demand. US economic data release is postponed, and economic activity shows some weakness [5]. - US refined product demand has mixed changes compared to last year. As of October 10, the average daily demand for total refined products is 2066.9 million barrels, down 0.5% from last year [6]. - US crude oil production hits a new high. As of October 10, daily production is 1363.6 million barrels, up 7000 barrels from the previous week and 13.6 million barrels from last year. Commercial crude inventory increases, while gasoline and distillate inventories change differently [7]. Polyester Product Prices and Basis - Prices of polyester products such as polyester bottle chips, short - fibers, and polyester filaments decline week - on - week. Basis values also show various changes [9]. PX Supply - Urumqi Petrochemical's 100 - million - ton device is under maintenance, and domestic PX production and capacity utilization decline slightly. Asian PX load rebounds slightly. Next week, PX supply is expected to decline slightly [12]. PTA Supply - Hengli Petrochemical reduces production, and Yisheng New Materials increases load. This week, PTA supply decreases slightly, and social inventory is reduced. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly [15]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - This week, domestic ethylene glycol supply decreases slightly. Port inventory accumulates, but next week, the accumulation pace may slow down due to reduced arrivals and increased demand [16]. Polyester End - The average weekly polyester start - up rate is 87.78%, down 0.02 percentage points week - on - week [17]. Polyester Inventory - Short - fiber inventory decreases, while long - filament inventory accumulates significantly [21]. Terminal Demand - Orders increase slightly, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom start - up rate is stable, and the peak season is not prominent [25]. Methanol Sector Methanol Price and Basis - Futures and spot prices of methanol change. The basis of MA2601 increases, and downstream product prices also show different trends [31]. Methanol Cost and Profit - This week, coal - based and coke - oven gas - based profits narrow slightly, and natural gas - based losses improve slightly. Olefin profits decline significantly, and traditional downstream profits are squeezed [37]. Methanol Supply - As of October 16, methanol start - up rate is 87.42%, down 2.11 percentage points, and production is 198.36 million tons, down 2.36% from the previous period. This week, more devices are under maintenance than those returning [40]. Methanol Demand - MTO start - up rate remains stable at 94%, and traditional downstream products show mixed performance with most at low levels [43]. Methanol Inventory - As of October 15, port inventory is 149.14 million tons, down 3.36%, and inland inventory is 35.99 million tons, up 6.04%. Port inventory decreases due to unloading issues and MTO support, while inland inventory accumulates [46].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Overall Situation**: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - **Device Changes**: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - **Balance Sheet**: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - **Downstream Demand**: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - **Seat Net Position**: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - **Overall Situation**: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - **Device Changes**: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - **Balance Sheet**: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - **Price Difference**: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - **Overall Situation**: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - **Device Changes**: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - **Profit**: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].