Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase, with expectations for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, a fundamental reversal in the long-term trend appears unlikely due to persistent challenges in the real estate market, supply-side constraints, and significant inventory pressures [2][5][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Inventory and Price Dynamics**: In H1 2025, glass inventory in Hubei increased by 44% year-on-year, leading to a decline in futures prices. The futures market is under pressure due to regional price arbitrage in the spot market [1][2]. - **Cost and Losses**: Futures prices fell below the cash flow cost of petroleum coke facilities in Hubei by 25%, resulting in severe losses that contributed to a recent price rebound [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Current daily production capacity stands at 158,000 tons, the lowest in five years, but only a 10-12% reduction from historical peaks. Approximately 22% of production facilities have been operational for 8-10 years and are nearing a cold repair period [1][6]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with no significant recovery in the real estate sector to drive demand. If demand does not improve and inventory continues to accumulate, market-driven production cuts may occur in Q4 without government intervention [1][6][9]. - **Future Supply Needs**: To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry needs to reduce production by about 10%. Current supply is estimated at 4.5-4.7 million tons, necessitating an increase of approximately 500,000 tons to reach a demand level of 5 million tons [3][8]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The establishment of a unified national market and related policies may reduce ineffective competition and encourage the exit of low-quality production capacities, which could have a positive long-term impact on the industry [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Feedback Loop**: The main factors affecting the negative feedback loop in the glass industry include a weak real estate market, lack of significant production cuts, and ongoing inventory pressures. Breaking this cycle requires effective production cuts or sustained demand improvement, neither of which is currently in place [9][10]. - **Production Decisions**: The industry typically avoids production cuts in H1 due to seasonal demand, with reductions more likely in Q3 or Q4 when many facilities reach their operational limits and require maintenance [11][12]. - **Cost Structure**: The cash costs for petroleum coke and natural gas are approximately 1,200-1,220 RMB and 1,300-1,350 RMB, respectively, while coal gas is cheaper at about 950-1,000 RMB. Current glass prices are around 1,000 RMB, close to the bottom [13][14]. - **Profitability Context**: Despite current losses of about 200 RMB per ton, the glass industry has historically seen profits exceeding 30% from 2016 to 2021, indicating that supply decisions are more influenced by cash flow and operational age rather than immediate profitability [15]. Regional Supply Disturbances - In the Shahe region, coal-to-gas projects are underway but face operational instability. Hubei plans to phase out petroleum coke facilities over the next few years, increasing the proportion of clean energy, although no definitive timeline has been established [16][17].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the polysilicon and industrial silicon markets, focusing on price fluctuations, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic policies affecting these industries [1][5][24]. Key Points and Arguments Polysilicon Market Dynamics - In the first half of 2024, polysilicon prices fluctuated significantly due to production cuts by industry leaders and inventory sales, dropping from 9,500 CNY/ton to 7,000 CNY/ton, then recovering by 1,000 CNY due to further production cuts [1]. - The cash cost of polysilicon initially was around 36,000 CNY, with recent price fluctuations causing it to rise to over 45,000 CNY, while transaction volumes remained low [6][7]. - The current inventory of polysilicon is approximately 400,000 tons, equivalent to four months of industry consumption, with a monthly production close to 100,000 tons [9]. Industrial Silicon Market Trends - In the first quarter of 2025, industrial silicon prices initially hovered around 10,000 CNY/ton but fell to about 7,000 CNY due to expectations of abundant water supply and insufficient polysilicon production [2]. - The total inventory of industrial silicon, including hidden stocks, reached over 1.5 million tons, sufficient for more than five months of consumption [9]. Supply and Demand Imbalance - The polysilicon market is currently oversupplied, with total production capacity at 3.65 million tons and monthly production around 100,000 tons, while total demand is only 120,000 to 130,000 tons [3][16]. - The industry is experiencing a significant inventory buildup, particularly in July and August, where production is expected to increase to 110,000 tons per month [16]. Macroeconomic Policies - Current macroeconomic policies aim to stabilize the market by preventing sales below production costs and promoting healthy industry development through joint pricing and acquisition of outdated capacities [5][24]. - The policies are designed to enhance overall competitiveness and ensure that product prices do not fall below costs, as discussed in various industry meetings [5]. Cost and Pricing Variations - There are significant differences in cash costs among polysilicon producers, affecting the overall market cost structure. For instance, the reduction efficiency of different production methods can lead to cost differences of 4,000 to 5,000 CNY per ton [20]. - The production cost for large furnace industrial silicon has decreased due to improvements in labor, waste heat power generation, and efficiency, impacting smaller furnace operations negatively [19]. Future Outlook - The market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of price adjustments needed for downstream acceptance of higher polysilicon prices. The downstream industry is currently reluctant to accept prices above 40,000 CNY [17][24]. - The potential for production cuts exists, but the feasibility is challenged by varying production costs among companies, making unified agreements difficult [29][23]. Technological Developments - Advances in battery technologies, such as perovskite and n-type batteries, are influencing polysilicon demand, with n-type batteries requiring slightly less polysilicon compared to p-type [18]. Additional Important Insights - The acceptance of standard delivery products in the downstream market is low due to quality concerns and cost implications, leading to a preference for mixed package materials [8]. - The overall market is characterized by a significant amount of hidden inventory and a cautious approach to purchasing, with many companies prioritizing inventory reduction over new purchases [26][27]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call records, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the polysilicon and industrial silicon markets.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

Group 1: Market Trends - The price of steel has shown signs of stabilization and rebound, but the basis is expected to weaken due to approaching off-season and inventory nearing accumulation inflection point [1] - The demand for five major steel products is expected to continue its downward trend, with a decrease of 14,000 tons to 868 million tons [2] - Steel inventory is nearing the accumulation inflection point, with total inventory decreasing by 9,000 tons to 1,354 million tons, while plate materials have entered a clear accumulation phase [2] Group 2: Supply and Production - The production of steel is showing a high-level decline, with a slight decrease in molten iron output, while finished product reductions are significant [1] - The production of iron elements has increased by 15 million tons year-on-year from January to May, with an average daily increase of nearly 100,000 tons [1] - The current reduction in production is mainly reflected in rebar, while hot-rolled steel has not seen significant reductions [1] Group 3: Cost and Profitability - The cost side shows that coking coal inventory continues to accumulate, with supply unlikely to shrink, leading to weak support for carbon element costs [1] - The current profitability ranking from high to low is: steel billet > hot-rolled > rebar > cold-rolled [1] - The price of rebar has fallen below both electric furnace and blast furnace cost lines, resulting in significant reductions in rebar production [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel price has shown signs of weakness after a brief rebound, with expectations of continued weak demand due to the suspension of national subsidies and tariffs imposed by the U.S. on steel appliances [3] - The strategy for the week includes holding short positions on hot-rolled and rebar, with attention to whether previous lows of 3,000 and 2,900 can be broken [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel and stainless - steel: The reality supports and weak expectations of nickel prices are in a game, and nickel prices fluctuate. For stainless - steel, negative feedback leads to an increase in production cuts, and steel prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term stainless - steel is in low - level shock, and the medium - term pressure alleviation depends on production cut trends. If the production cuts in June are fulfilled, the excess pressure may ease in the medium term, and there may be a repair opportunity for steel prices in the third quarter, but a significant repair is difficult [8][37]. - Zinc: In the medium term, it remains bearish, and the long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The logic that the increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing the supply pressure, still applies. With the end of refinery maintenance and the entry of the demand side into the off - season, the price is weak. In the short term, the price may decline slightly, and the decline will be more fluent as the off - season deepens [10]. - Other commodities: Gold shows that non - farm payrolls slightly exceed expectations; silver has a technical breakthrough; for copper, inventory reduction supports the price; aluminum fluctuates in a range; alumina declines slightly; lead has weak supply and demand and fluctuates in a range; tin stops falling and rebounds; lithium carbonate has differences between bulls and bears and may still face pressure above; industrial silicon's disk fluctuates depending on market sentiment; polysilicon is recommended for short - position allocation considering SNEC conference information; for iron ore, expectations are repeated and it fluctuates in a range; rebar and hot - rolled coil are in low - level shock; ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate in a wide range; coke fluctuates in a wide range, and coking coal has stricter safety inspections and fluctuates in a wide range; thermal coal demand awaits release and it fluctuates in a wide range; logs fluctuate repeatedly [12]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pre - market Readings - **Stainless - steel**: Short - term low - level shock, medium - term pressure alleviation requires attention to production cut trends. In June, Chinese stainless - steel production is 3.239 million tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 1% and 5% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to 4%. In June, Indonesian stainless - steel production is 360,000 tons, with a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 9% and 0% respectively, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate drops to - 2% [8]. - **Zinc**: Medium - term bearish, long - domestic and short - foreign arbitrage position can be held. The increase in zinc ore supply is transmitted to the smelting end, increasing supply pressure, while demand is in the off - season, and the price is weak [10]. 3.2 Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of gold and silver futures and spot, as well as exchange rate data. The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 0, indicating a neutral view [17][19]. - **News**: Include news such as the US approaching an agreement to partially exempt steel tariffs on Mexico, Trump's remarks on the Los Angeles riot, the US "stablecoin bill" voting, and the UK's employment situation [17][20]. 3.3 Copper - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of copper futures and spot. The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [21][23]. - **News**: The US - China negotiation is reported to be "progressing smoothly", and some copper mines have production suspension situations due to mechanical failures, wildfires, etc. China's copper ore imports increase, while un - wrought copper and copper product imports decrease [21][23]. 3.4 Aluminum and Alumina - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot, as well as cost and profit data. The trend intensity of both aluminum and alumina is 0, indicating a neutral view [24][26]. - **News**: The US Treasury Secretary is considered a candidate for the next Fed Chairman [24][26]. 3.5 Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of zinc futures and spot. The trend intensity of zinc is - 1, indicating a bearish view [27][28]. - **News**: The situation in Los Angeles is turbulent, and California sues the Trump administration [28]. 3.6 Lead - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lead futures and spot. The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view [30][31]. - **News**: Similar to zinc, related to the Los Angeles situation [31]. 3.7 Tin - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of tin futures and spot. The trend intensity of tin is 1, indicating a bullish view [34][36]. - **News**: Similar to gold and silver, including news about the US, UK, etc [34][35]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless - steel - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and cost - profit data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot. The trend intensity of both nickel and stainless - steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [37]. - **News**: Include events such as Canada's potential nickel export suspension, Indonesia's nickel project production, and the Philippines' discussion of a nickel export ban [37][40]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, and spread data of lithium carbonate futures and spot, as well as raw material price data. The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [43][45]. - **News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate index rises, and China's export of equipment manufacturing products increases [44]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, inventory, cost - profit data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot, as well as related product price data in the photovoltaic industry. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, and that of polysilicon is - 2, indicating bearish views [47][49]. - **News**: A photovoltaic project of Longi Green Energy has an environmental impact assessment report [47]. 3.11 Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of iron ore futures and spot. The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral view [50]. - **News**: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [50]. 3.12 Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot. The trend intensity of both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [52][54]. - **News**: China's steel exports increase, imports decrease, and steel production and inventory data change [53][54]. 3.13 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures and spot. The trend intensity of both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0, indicating a neutral view [56][58]. - **News**: The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions change, and some steel mills have procurement prices and production adjustment plans [57]. 3.14 Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of coke and coking coal futures and spot. The trend intensity of coke is - 1, and that of coking coal is 1, indicating bearish and bullish views respectively [60][63]. - **News**: Provide port prices and index data of coking coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [60][62]. 3.15 Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and inventory data of thermal coal. The trend intensity of thermal coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [66][68]. - **News**: Provide port and origin prices of thermal coal, and information on the long and short positions of futures contracts [67]. 3.16 Logs - **Fundamentals**: Provide price, trading volume, position, and spread data of log futures and spot. The trend intensity of logs is 1, indicating a bullish view [71][73]. - **News**: China's May CPI decreases year - on - year, and PPI decreases month - on - month [73].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, the cost of Indonesian nickel - iron plants is inverted, leading some plants to consider production cuts. The price pressure may shift to the ore end, but the supply of nickel ore is tight. The market sentiment is weak, with an expected short - term downward trend and a long - term strategy of selling hedges at high prices [3][4]. - For the stainless - steel market, the cost situation of Indonesian nickel - iron plants and the planned maintenance of some stainless - steel plants may support the market, but overall market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is also selling hedges at high prices [4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Nickel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2507 opened at 119,640 yuan/ton and closed at 120,480 yuan/ton, a - 0.63% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 181,192 lots, and the open interest was 102,540 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, and continued to rise during the day session, closing with a mid - sized positive line. The trading volume increased, and the open interest decreased compared to the previous day [2][3]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: In the nickel ore market, the trading atmosphere was calm. Philippine resources in June were on sale, but shipments were affected by rain. Downstream iron plants were in losses and were reluctant to pay high prices for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the quota increased to 3.2 billion tons, and the domestic trade benchmark price in June (Phase I) decreased by about $0.02. Some iron plants planned to cut production due to high costs. The supply of refined nickel remained in surplus, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,170 (- 174.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 200,142 (- 720) tons [3]. - **Spot Market**: Jinchuan nickel's morning quotation decreased by about 1,625 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the prices of other mainstream brands also dropped. Although the nickel price rebounded during the day, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed to 2,500 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium was 250 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was - 450 yuan/ton [3]. Nickel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to decline weakly in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, the main strategy is range trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Stainless - steel Market Analysis - **Market Performance**: On May 29, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2507 opened at 12,740 yuan/ton and closed at 12,690 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 139,550 lots, and the open interest was 101,554 lots. The contract price decreased at the beginning of the night session, then rebounded, rose during the day session, and slightly declined in the afternoon, closing with a positive line. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest slightly increased compared to the previous day [4]. - **Supply and Demand Factors**: Some stainless - steel plants have maintenance plans in June. In the spot market, the stainless - steel futures price rebounded slightly, but some steel mills and agents lowered their quotes. Cold - rolled transaction prices mostly followed the decline. The market had rigid demand, and low - priced resources had good transaction volumes. The price of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,100 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 460 - 660 yuan/ton. The ex - factory average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 954.0 yuan/nickel point [4]. Stainless - steel Market Strategy - **Overall Strategy**: It is expected to oscillate downward in the near term, and the long - term strategy is to sell hedges at high prices. - **Trading Strategies**: The single - side strategy is neutral. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The index has stable lower support and high upper breakthrough pressure. The LPR and deposit rates have decreased, leading to a recovery in the consumer sector. Short - term Treasury bonds may fluctuate, and precious metals have rebounded after a decline. Various commodities such as shipping, industrial materials, and agricultural products show different trends and characteristics [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - For stock index futures (IF2506, IH2506, IC2506, IM2506), sell put options at support levels to earn premiums, or go long on September IM contracts on pullbacks and sell call options with a strike price of 6400 in September for a covered - call strategy. For Treasury bond futures (T2506, TF2506, TS2506, TL2506), short - term Treasury bonds may be in a shock, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may fluctuate between 1.6% - 1.7%, and the 30 - year Treasury yield between 1.85% - 1.95%. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to high - frequency economic data and capital dynamics. For precious metals (AU2508, AG2508), short - term gold should focus on regaining the $3300 (775 yuan) mark, and silver will follow gold and fluctuate strongly in the range of $32 - 33.5 (8000 - 8350 yuan) [2]. Black - The shipping index (EC2508) is in short - term shock consolidation, and 8 - 10, 6 - 10 positive spreads can be considered. For steel (RB2510), industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating, and attention should be paid to the decline in apparent demand. Iron ore (I2509) fluctuates in the range of 700 - 745. Coke (J2509) has entered a new price cut stage, and coal prices may be in the bottom - seeking stage. Strategies such as long hot - rolled coils and short coke, long hot - rolled coils and short coking coal can be considered [2]. Non - ferrous - Copper (CU2506) should focus on the pressure level of 78000 - 79000, zinc (ZN2507) has strong upper pressure, and nickel (NI2506) and stainless steel (SS2507) maintain a weak shock. Tin (SN2506) should be treated with a bearish rebound approach [2]. Energy and Chemical - Crude oil (SC2507) is affected by macro and geopolitical risks, and the WTI fluctuates in the range of [59, 69], Brent in [61, 71], and SC in [450, 510]. Urea (UR2509) has low market demand activity and short - term shock. PX (PX2509) and PTA (TA2509) are under short - term pressure, and short - fiber (PF2507), bottle - grade polyester chips (PR2507), ethanol (EG2509), etc. have different trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. Agricultural - Soybean meal (M2509, RM509) is suppressed by arrival pressure, and the performance around 2900 should be observed. Live pigs (6095ZHT) are in a weak shock, and attention should be paid to the 13500 support. Corn (C2507) is in a shock correction, and attention should be paid to the 2300 support. Palm oil may reach 8200. Other agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. also have their own characteristics and trading suggestions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass (FG2509) is pessimistic in the market, and attention should be paid to the 1000 - point support. Rubber (RU2509) has risen slightly due to storage news, and the upper limit of the range can be lightly short - sold. Industrial silicon (Si2506) has broken through the position and fallen, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Polysilicon (PS2506) futures are falling in a shock, and long positions should be closed. Lithium carbonate (LC2507) is in a weak operation, and the main contract is expected to run between 58,000 - 62,000 [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The current supply - demand situation of various commodities is complex, with different trends and influencing factors for each commodity. For example, the pig market shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, sugar has a changing supply - demand balance both internationally and domestically, the oil market is affected by supply - side and demand - side factors, and PVC has issues with weak domestic demand and ongoing inventory reduction [1][2][4][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Pig - **Day - to - day View**: Weak and stable [1] - **Medium - term View**: Wide - range oscillation [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell out - of - the - money put options [1] - **Core Logic**: Supply is abundant as the inventory of breeding sows has been high, and the pressure of supply is postponed. Demand has the potential to increase due to possible stockpiling by slaughterhouses. Currently, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is likely to decline in the short term [1][2] Sugar - **Day - to - day View**: Reach the bottom and then rise [3] - **Medium - term View**: Rise first and then fall [3] - **Reference Strategy**: Cumulative purchase options [3] - **Core Logic**: Internationally, Brazil's new sugar - making season is expected to increase production, while India has a significant reduction. Domestically, the production increase expectation has been basically fulfilled, and the sales progress is good. The overall supply - demand is tight, and the sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly [4][5] Crude Oil - **Day - to - day View**: Weak oscillation [6] - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure [6] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell futures contracts and buy call options for protection [6] - **Core Logic**: On the supply side, OPEC+ will increase production, and US sanctions may affect the supply of some countries. On the demand side, there is a seasonal increase in demand, but the refinery's operating rate is low. The overall oil price will be volatile, with potential for short - term increases but also a risk of decline in the second quarter [7][8][9] PVC - **Day - to - day View**: Weak operation [10] - **Medium - term View**: Lack of upward driving force [12] - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PVC out - of - the - money put options at an appropriate time [12] - **Core Logic**: The cost of calcium carbide is supported, supply has increased, domestic demand is weak, and inventory has been decreasing. The future price may be affected by macro - policies [10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For silicon manganese, the industry fundamentals have not improved significantly, cost - end support is insufficient, and high inventory suppresses price increases. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5600, 6000] [5] - For silicon iron, the supply - demand contradiction is gradually alleviating, the industry's production reduction progress is accelerating, but the inventory level is still relatively high. The market may continue to seek a bottom and is expected to be weak in the short term, with the main contract reference range of [5400, 5850] [46] 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Silicon Manganese 3.1.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, production and operating rates declined significantly. It is expected that the total silicon manganese output in April will be around 810,000 tons. Although the production decline in each production area has slowed down compared with the previous period, the daily average output in Inner Mongolia is still at a relatively high level in the same period, and the operating rate in Yunnan is also at a high level in the same period [4][18] - Demand: In April, the substantial increase in hot metal production provided rigid support for the demand for silicon manganese. However, in steel tenders, the procurement prices of mainstream steel mills decreased, and the overall price - pressing sentiment was strong. Recently, news of production cuts has disturbed the market [4] 3.1.2 Manganese Ore Overview - Price: Manganese ore prices have not stopped falling, and the decline of oxide ore is obvious. Although the inquiry enthusiasm at ports has increased recently, the overall purchasing mentality is still cautious [4] - Inventory: Port inventory has continued to rise but is still at a historically low level. The arrival volume in April increased significantly, and the floating volume at sea surged. It is expected that large ships will arrive at ports in mid - to - late May, and the inventory may return to the normal range [4] 3.1.3 Cost and Profit - The entire industry is still in a loss state, and there are still expectations for production cuts. Special attention should be paid to the production reduction progress in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia. Coke's second - round price increase was blocked, and the coke price is expected to be weak. The electricity prices in the north and south production areas have decreased to varying degrees, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [4] 3.1.4 Market Review - In April, the silicon manganese futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon manganese 509 contract was 5804 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 6.66% compared with the beginning of the month; the price range of Inner Mongolia 6517 was 5680 - 5900 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 220 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Silicon Iron 3.2.1 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: In April, the production and operating rates decreased significantly. It is expected that the national output in April will be 430,000 - 440,000 tons. Since the end of March, news of factory production cuts and shutdowns has been continuously reported, and production area shutdowns and overhauls have gradually increased since mid - April [45] - Demand: With the repair of steel mill profits, blast furnaces have been actively restarted, and hot metal production has increased more than expected. In April, steel tenders progressed slowly, and most steel mills' tender prices decreased to varying degrees compared with the previous round. Non - steel demand remained stable, and downstream pre - holiday restocking was mainly based on demand - based procurement. The cumulative silicon iron export volume from January to March decreased significantly year - on - year [45] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The semi - coke market has been stable recently. The price of lump coal in the raw material end has declined, weakening the cost support for semi - coke. The overall operating rate of semi - coke enterprises is low, and they have entered the regular maintenance season, with the overall supply continuing to shrink. The price of small materials in Shaanxi has not changed significantly this month. The electricity price in Inner Mongolia was reduced by 0.015 yuan in mid - April, and there is an expectation of a decrease in Ningxia's electricity price [45] 3.2.3 Market Review - In April, the silicon iron futures price continued to decline, and the spot price followed the decline. As of April 28, 2025, the closing price of the silicon iron 506 contract was 5648 yuan/ton, and the silicon iron 72 in Inner Mongolia was in the price range of 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decrease of 150 yuan/ton [49]