黑色建材日报 | 2025-11-26 宏观情绪乐观，钢价震荡运行 昨日螺纹钢期货主力合约收于3106元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3309元/吨。现货方面，昨日钢材现货成交整体一般， 环比前日有所走弱，全国建材成交10.13万吨。 供需与逻辑：在经过几周的连续去库下，成材库存压力得到显著缓解，降库整体符合季节性特征。其中建材供需 基本面环比改善，供需双弱下库存压力得到较好缓解，卷螺价差大幅收窄，考虑到即将步入建材需求淡季，关注 后续市场情绪及库存变化情况。板材供需双强，高供应带来的高库存仍对板材价格形成压制，考虑到后期建材需 求转弱可能会形成拖累，板材或需要通过适度减产来化解高库存压力。关注钢材减产和利润变化， 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 钢材：宏观情绪乐观，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 风险 宏观政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：供需扰动延续，矿价维持震荡 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日铁矿石期货价格小幅上涨。现货方面，唐山港口进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅上涨，贸易商报盘 积极性一般，报价多随行就市，钢厂采购以刚需为主。全国主港铁矿累计成交97.5万吨，环比下跌13. ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The current macro - level is in a relative vacuum period. The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, and trading volume remains low. Short - term market differences are expected to be gradually digested during the index's shock adjustment, waiting for a new driving main line to push the index higher [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, suppressing the upward space [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index - The A - share market lacks a clear upward main line, with low trading volume. Short - term market differences will be digested in the index's shock adjustment, and a new driving main line is awaited for further upward movement [1]. Bonds - Asset shortage and weak economy are good for bond futures, but short - term central bank's interest - rate risk warning restricts the rise [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: Market sentiment is volatile recently, and copper prices may fluctuate [1]. - Aluminum: With limited industrial drivers and volatile macro sentiment, aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [1]. - Alumina: Domestic alumina production capacity continues to be released. Production and inventory are both increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Prices are oscillating around the cost line [1]. - Zinc: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment is expected to be volatile. Although there are short - term improvement signs in the domestic fundamentals, the oversupply pattern remains. Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term after the China - US presidential call. Indonesia restricts nickel - related smelting project approvals. With a planned monthly production cut of about 6,000 metric tons in Indonesian intermediate products, nickel prices have a repair expectation if the macro sentiment improves. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains oversupplied [1]. - Stainless Steel: The Fed has large internal differences, and the macro sentiment has improved in the short term. The price of raw material nickel - iron has weakened again, and the social inventory of stainless steel has increased. Steel mills' production cuts in November are limited. Stainless - steel futures are looking for a bottom in oscillation. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations, consider a light - position long - nickel and short - stainless - steel strategy, and pay attention to short - selling hedging opportunities at high prices [1]. - Tin: The Fed's differences are increasing, and the macro situation is volatile. Indonesia's tin exports have declined significantly. Considering the un - repaired tin - ore supply and terminal demand expectations, tin is still regarded as bullish in the long term [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Precious Metals: There are still differences regarding a December interest - rate cut. Precious - metal prices may fluctuate, and attention should be paid to US economic data [1]. - Industrial Silicon: Northwest production capacity is continuously resuming, and the start - up in the southwest is weaker than in previous years. The impact of the dry season is weakening. Polysilicon production in November has decreased, and there is a joint production cut in the organic - silicon industry [1]. - Polysilicon: There is an expectation of production - capacity reduction in the long term. Terminal installations will increase marginally in the fourth quarter. The anti - involution policy has not been implemented for a long time, and market sentiment has faded [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: The traditional peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, energy - storage demand is strong, and the supply side is resuming production. However, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand in the off - season [1]. Steel and Iron - Rebar: In the off - season, there are concerns about potential weakening of industrial demand. During the short - term macro vacuum period, although the valuation is low, the price increase space is limited. The virtual value accumulation strategy can be appropriately participated in [1]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The off - season effect is not obvious, but the industrial structure is still loose. During the short - term macro vacuum period, the basis is acceptable. The spot - futures positive arbitrage can be appropriately participated in, or option strategies can be used to optimize costs or sales profits [1]. - Iron Ore: The near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and the far - month contracts still have upward opportunities [1]. - Ferroalloy: Short - term production profits are poor, cost support is strengthening, direct demand is acceptable, but supply is high, and the downstream is under pressure. The price rebound is limited [1]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: It follows the glass market, but supply and demand are average, and there is significant upward resistance [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: From a valuation perspective, the current decline of coke and coking coal is close to the end. From a driving perspective, downstream replenishment is expected to start around mid - December. For now, a short - term trading strategy is recommended for single - side trading, and a wait - and - see attitude is advisable for the long - term [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Oil: The rumor that "the US delays the implementation of preferential cuts for imported bio - fuel raw materials" has been refuted, which has a positive impact on US soybeans and soybean oil. Domestic soybean - oil basis may be stable or weak under high - pressure crushing. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: The industry is optimistic about the supply of Australian rapeseed and imported crude rapeseed oil. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. Downstream start - up remains low, but spinning mills' inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver" [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, and raw - sugar prices are under pressure. The supply pressure of the domestic new crop has increased year - on - year, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to follow the decline of raw sugar [1]. - Corn: Short - term supply is tight due to farmers' reluctance to sell, logistics tensions in the Northeast, and low downstream inventory. The spot price is firm, and the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended to be cautious about going long before the supply pressure is fully released [1]. - Bean Meal: Short - term attention should be paid to China's purchase of US soybeans, which may support the US soybean market. Without obvious weather problems, the market is expected to shift to trading the abundant supply of South American new crops from December to January. It is recommended to short MO5 on rallies [1]. Pulp and Logs - Pulp: The pulp - futures price has risen above the registration - warehouse - receipt cost of most coniferous - pulp delivery products. After new warehouse - receipt registration, a 1 - 3 reverse arbitrage can be considered [1]. - Logs: The fundamentals of logs have weakened, but this has been priced into the market. After a sharp decline in the futures price, the risk - return ratio of short - selling is low. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Livestock - Pig: The current spot price is gradually stabilizing. Supported by demand and with the weight of pigs for slaughter not fully reduced, the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy - Crude Oil: OPEC + plans to continue a small - scale production increase in December, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel Oil: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are not prominent, and it follows the crude - oil market [1]. - Asphalt: The "14th Five - Year Plan" rush - work demand is likely to be falsified, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient. The asphalt profit is high [1]. - Natural Rubber (HK): The raw - material cost has strong support, the spot - futures price difference is at a low level, and the number of RU盘 - face warehouse receipts is low after the cancellation of old - rubber warehouse receipts [1]. - BR Rubber: The cost support of butadiene is insufficient, the supply of synthetic rubber is abundant, high - start - up and high - inventory have not yet suppressed the price. There are signs of price stabilization, and the subsequent rebound amplitude should be noted [1]. Petrochemicals - PTA: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. Overseas and some domestic device malfunctions have led to a decline in the load of aromatics - production devices. Domestic large - scale PTA devices are under rotational inspection, and domestic PTA production has decreased [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: The decline in crude - oil prices has led to a fall in ethylene - glycol prices. The increase in coal prices has slightly strengthened the cost support of domestic ethylene glycol. The strong expectation of domestic device commissioning suppresses the increase in ethylene - glycol prices [1]. - Short - Fiber: Gasoline profit and low benzene price support PX. The PTA price has rebounded, and the short - fiber basis has strengthened. Short - fiber prices continue to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The Asian benzene price is still weak, and the operating rates of STDP and reforming units have decreased. The price of pure benzene in the US Gulf has increased by 30 US dollars, and some US devices have reduced their loads. The benzene - blending logic in the US has promoted the price increase of pure benzene [1]. Plastics - PE: Export sentiment has eased, but domestic demand is insufficient. There is support from anti - involution and the cost side [1]. - PP: The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates and relatively low downstream improvement and expectations. The high price of propylene monomers provides strong cost support [1]. - PVC: The futures price is returning to fundamentals. With fewer subsequent overhauls and new - capacity release, supply pressure is increasing, while demand is weakening and orders are poor [1]. Others - Caustic Soda: Some alumina plants' delivery schedules have slowed down. There are fewer subsequent overhauls, and there is inventory - accumulation pressure in Shandong. The price of liquid chlorine is high, and the absolute price is low. There is a risk of short - squeeze in near - month contracts due to limited warehouse receipts [1]. - LPG: The international oil and gas fundamentals are continuously loose, and CP/FEI prices are weakening. The PG price has repaired its valuation, combustion demand is gradually restarting, and the domestic spot fundamentals are stable with chemical - industry rigid demand support [1]. - Shipping: The macro - positive sentiment has been gradually digested, the peak - season price - increase expectation has been priced in advance, and the shipping - capacity supply in November is relatively loose [1].

锡产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【 2011】1292号 2025年11月18日 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可维的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信息89准确性及完整性不作任何保证。 不同观点、见解及分析方法、并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述 品种买卖的出价或间价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发明贫所有， 授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 t注盘信公众5 知识图强,求实奉献, 客户至上, 合作共赢 锡观点 | 刊 【2011】1292号 | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025 F OF 18日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 11月17日 | 11月14日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9500 ...

Core Viewpoint - Despite predictions of a global oil supply surplus leading to further price declines, oil traders do not expect OPEC+ to cut production next year [2][3] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Expectations - A survey of 25 brokers and analysts indicates that nearly two-thirds believe OPEC+ will not cut production next year, with less than one-third expecting any supply reductions [2] - Only 8 out of 25 respondents anticipate OPEC+ will limit output, while 12 expect no restrictions, suggesting that significant cuts are unlikely unless there is a drastic market downturn [3] - OPEC+ countries have already restored three-quarters of the 3.85 million barrels per day that were previously paused, ahead of schedule [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Price Pressure - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a potential surplus of 4 million barrels per day, driven by weak demand and strong supply from the U.S., Brazil, and Guyana [4] - Oil prices have dropped 14% this year to nearly $64 per barrel, putting financial pressure on OPEC+ members, particularly Saudi Arabia, which faces a growing budget deficit [5] - Some forecasting institutions, like Goldman Sachs and HSBC, estimate that next year's supply surplus will be smaller than the IEA's predictions [5] Group 3: Strategic Shifts and Future Outlook - OPEC+ may be pausing further production increases as a precursor to a new reduction agreement, with the aim of preventing excessive inventory accumulation [4] - Analysts suggest that OPEC+ is focused on regaining market share lost to competitors, particularly U.S. shale producers, rather than prioritizing price support [3][5] - The potential for OPEC+ to cut production significantly may depend on geopolitical factors or drastic price drops, with some analysts believing that the alliance will not reduce output by 2026 [5]

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For precious metals, although central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals in the long - term, the short - term is in an adjustment phase, and there is expected to be no strong driving force in November [3]. - For copper, when the copper price drops to around 85,000 yuan/ton, downstream enterprises' replenishment enthusiasm increases, and the price has strong support at this level. However, whether orders will continue to increase needs further observation, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient [17]. - For aluminum, the recent price increase is driven by speculative funds due to potential future supply - demand mismatches, but it contradicts the current fundamentals. The price of alumina may be weak in the short - term due to oversupply [37]. - For zinc, the TC in November has dropped significantly due to intense competition for ore at the smelting end. There is a possibility of inventory reduction in November, and the low inventory provides support for the price [60]. - For the nickel industry chain, the price of nickel ore may be supported during the rainy season in the Philippines. The new energy sector is in the peak season, but there is no upward driving force for prices. Nickel iron prices have been continuously lowered, and stainless steel spot sales are weak [76]. - For tin, the supply is weaker than demand, and the raw material problem at the supply end is difficult to solve in the short - term, so the Shanghai tin price will maintain a high - level shock [91]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply increment is stable, the demand is strong in November, and the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, maintaining a shock - upward trend in the short - term [105]. - For the silicon industry chain, there is an expectation of production reduction at the industrial silicon supply end, and the demand has not improved. The fundamentals of polysilicon are still weak [116]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Trend**: The report presents the price trends of SHFE gold and silver futures, COMEX gold, and the gold - silver ratio [4]. - **Factor Analysis**: Analyzes the relationship between gold and the US dollar index, and the relationship between gold and the real interest rate of US Treasury bonds [8][15]. - **Inventory Situation**: Shows the inventory of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver [16]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper are provided [18]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotong, etc., as well as the spot premium and discount data are presented [23]. - **Import and Processing**: The copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper refined - scrap price difference are given [28][32]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory are provided [33][35]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum futures, LME aluminum, and alumina futures are presented [39]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of East China aluminum, Foshan aluminum, etc., as well as the basis data are provided [46]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and alumina warehouse receipts are given [54]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [61]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SMM 0 zinc and SMM 1 zinc, as well as the premium and discount data are presented [69]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory are given [73]. Nickel Industry Chain - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and stainless steel futures are provided [77]. - **Spot Data**: The average price of nickel spot is presented [82]. - **Downstream Situation**: The price and inventory of nickel ore, the profit rate of downstream products, and the price of nickel pig iron are analyzed [83][85][89]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 1 tin premium and discount, etc., are presented [96]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Shanghai tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory are given [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided [106]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, daily change rates, weekly changes, and weekly change rates of lithium - related products are presented [110]. - **Inventory Situation**: The latest data and changes of Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and lithium carbonate social inventory are given [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures are provided [116][117]. - **Polysilicon and Downstream Products**: The prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented [122][123][124]. - **Production and Inventory**: The production, inventory, and cost data of industrial silicon in Xinjiang and Yunnan are given [129][141][144].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - The steel market data is bearish, with inventory pressure mainly on off - balance - sheet materials. Attention should be paid to the off - balance - sheet material destocking of the Steel Union sample this week. - Recently, the decline in steel mill hot metal production has alleviated inventory pressure, mainly affecting off - balance - sheet material production cuts. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products in the Steel Union sample is higher than the output, and the inventory continues to decline. However, the plate inventory is relatively high year - on - year, and the winter storage pressure is higher than last year. It is expected that steel mills will actively cut production in winter. - The supply of iron elements in the January contract is in a loose pattern, and the recent decline in hot metal production suppresses iron ore prices. Unilateral trading of rebar and hot - rolled coils should focus on the support levels of 3000 and 3200 respectively. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils can be maintained. [2] Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore futures showed a weak and volatile trend. The supply side saw a decline in global shipments last week but a significant increase in arrivals at 45 ports. The demand side is weak as steel mill profit margins have dropped significantly, hot metal production has fallen from its peak, and steel mills' restocking demand is weak. - The downstream demand for steel is gradually recovering, but there is still inventory pressure on plates. Port inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure is increasing. - The previous macro - positive factors have been digested. The decline in steel prices, hot metal production, and the increase in port inventory still suppress iron ore. The driving force for iron ore is weak. Unilateral trading should be on the sidelines for now, with a reference range of 760 - 810. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - The coke futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The mainstream steel mills accepted the third round of coke price increases on November 4 and implemented them at 0:00 on the 5th, with a still - existing expectation of further increases. - The supply side is supported by the rebound in coking coal prices. After the coke price increase, losses are narrowing, and production starts are increasing. The demand side is affected by environmental restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in steel mill hot metal production, weak steel prices, and low steel mill profits, which suppress coke price increases. - The overall inventory is slightly increasing at a medium level, with steel mills destocking and coking plants and ports accumulating inventory. The short - term fluctuations do not affect the bullish view for the fourth quarter. Speculative trading can go long on coke 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be adopted, but beware of large price fluctuations. [7] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures showed an oscillating and rebounding trend. The domestic coking coal market continues to be strong, and downstream restocking demand still exists, but traders are becoming cautious due to the rapid price increase. - The supply side is expected to improve as some停产 mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia are resuming production, but the output recovery is limited. The import of Mongolian coal has decreased since October but rebounded this week, with tight port resources and strong Mongolian coal quotes. - The demand side is affected by production restrictions in Tangshan and Shanxi, with a significant decline in hot metal production, a slight increase in coking plant production starts, and weakening steel mill restocking demand. The overall inventory is slightly decreasing at a medium level, with mines, ports, and coal - washing plants destocking and coking plants and coal - washing plants accumulating inventory. Unilateral trading can go long on coking coal 2601 at dips, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350. The strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke is recommended, paying attention to price fluctuations. [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices generally declined. For example, rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 30 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil spot prices decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. [2] Cost and Profit - The cost of billet and steel production decreased. The profit of various steel products also declined, such as the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 43 yuan/ton, and the profit of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar decreased by 13 yuan/ton. [2] Production - The daily average hot metal production increased by 3.5 to 239.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.5%. The production of the five major steel products increased by 10.0 to 875.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. Rebar production increased by 2.7%, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.3%. [2] Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 41.1 to 1513.7 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.6%. Rebar inventory decreased by 19.6 to 602.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.1%, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.3 to 406.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.0%. [2] Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.3%, and the apparent demand of the five major steel products increased by 23.7 to 916.4 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%. The apparent demand of rebar increased by 6.2 to 232.2 tons, with a growth rate of 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils increased by 5.2 to 331.9 tons, with a growth rate of 1.6%. [2] Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The price of iron ore spot and futures decreased slightly. For example, the price of iron ore at Rizhao Port decreased by 1.0 yuan/ton, and the price of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton. The spreads between different contracts also changed, such as the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 20.0, with a decline rate of - 2.4%. [4] Supply - The 45 - port weekly arrival volume increased by 1189.3 to 3218.4 tons, with a growth rate of 58.6%. The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 174.6 to 3213.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.2%. The national monthly import volume increased by 1111.6 to 11632.6 tons, with a growth rate of 10.6%. [4] Demand - The weekly average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. The weekly average 45 - port ore - clearing volume decreased by 16.2 to 320.2 tons, with a decline rate of - 4.8%. The national monthly pig iron production decreased by 374.7 to 6604.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.4%, and the national monthly crude steel production decreased by 387.8 to 7349.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.0%. [4] Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 to 14714.08 tons, with a growth rate of 1.2%. The 247 - steel - mill imported ore inventory decreased by 229.3 to 8849.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.5%. [4] Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal and coke contracts increased. For example, the coke 01 contract increased by 16 to 1269 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.2%, and the coking coal 01 contract increased by 24 to 1753 yuan/ton, with a growth rate of 1.4%. The coking profit decreased by 11, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 39, with a growth rate of 7.9%. [7] Supply - The weekly coke production of the full - sample coking plants remained unchanged at 64.6 tons. The weekly production of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 3.8 to 851.8 tons, with a growth rate of 0.4%. [7] Demand - The weekly hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 3.5 to 236.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5%. [7] Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 8.1 to 900.0 tons, with a growth rate of 0.9%. The coking plant coke inventory increased by 1.2 to 59.9 tons, with a growth rate of 2.1%, and the 247 - steel - mill coke inventory decreased by 4.1 to 629.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.6%. The coking coal inventory of the full - sample coking plants increased by 22.8 to 1052.5 tons, with a growth rate of 2.2%, and the 247 - steel - mill coking coal inventory increased by 13.4 to 796.3 tons, with a growth rate of 1.7%. [7] Supply - Demand Gap - The weekly coke supply - demand gap increased by 49.2% to - 3.6 tons. [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: The fundamental drivers for precious metals mainly come from the Fed's expected interest rate cut but sending hawkish signals, which boosts risk - aversion sentiment due to policy uncertainties. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East continuously strengthen the safe - haven attribute of gold. The strong gold investment demand globally in Q3 (a 47% year - on - year increase) and the support from the RMB - denominated advantage and the recovery of domestic physical demand lead to a "strong domestic, weak overseas" pattern [3]. - **Copper**: After the Fed's interest rate decision, the copper market saw a decline in both volume and price. The spot premium showed a trend of bottoming out and rebounding, but the increase was limited. If the spot market trading volume does not increase, the futures price may remain in a high - level oscillation in the short term [17]. - **Aluminum**: The tariff negotiation results led to a night - session increase in Shanghai aluminum. With macro events gradually settled, the market is in a news vacuum, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and prices are falling. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum and strong support at the bottom [37]. - **Zinc**: In November, the TC of zinc decreased significantly due to intense competition for mines in the smelting sector, the lack of price advantage of overseas mines, and limited domestic mine increments. The smelting sector's willingness to cut or stop production increased. If demand remains stable, there is a possibility of inventory reduction. Low inventory supports prices, and there is an upward driving force in November [60]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia's new regulations on nickel ore quotas in 2026 are stricter. The price increase of nickel ore has slowed down, and the market circulation is tight. The price of nickel - iron and chrome - iron has declined, weakening the cost support for stainless steel. Stainless steel is in the off - season, and downstream demand is weak [76]. - **Tin**: Fundamentally, Yunnan's tin production has declined, and concentrate imports have dropped sharply. Supply is weaker than demand. In the short term, it is difficult to solve supply - side disturbances, and Shanghai tin is expected to remain strong, with support around 276,000 yuan [91]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Market demand is good, and warehouse receipts are continuously and significantly decreasing. Before the end of the year, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month, which may drive spot procurement demand and support the futures price [105]. - **Silicon**: For industrial silicon, as the dry season approaches, enterprise production cuts are expected to increase, and the price center may move up slightly, but the price increase is limited due to high inventory. The polysilicon spot market is cold, with a production - cut expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [116]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price, and related price ratios and spreads are presented in multiple charts [4][6][9]. - **Driving Factors**: Fed's interest rate policy, geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, and investment demand are the main driving factors for the precious metals market [3]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper and London copper futures are provided. The prices of Shanghai copper futures have declined, and the London copper price has also decreased [18]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different copper sources have declined, and the spot premium has shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [23]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory data are given, with some changes in inventory quantities [33][35]. Aluminum - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, London aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures are provided. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased slightly, while alumina prices have decreased [38]. - **Spread Data**: Various spreads between different aluminum and alumina contracts are presented, with some spreads showing significant changes [40][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [54]. Zinc - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc futures are provided. Both prices have declined [61]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different zinc grades have increased slightly, and LME zinc spreads have decreased [69]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc inventory data are given, with changes in inventory quantities [73]. Nickel - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures are provided. Prices have declined [77]. - **Downstream Data**: Nickel - related downstream product prices, such as stainless steel, have also declined, and the cost support for stainless steel has weakened [76]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt inventory data are presented [82]. Tin - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin and LME tin futures are provided. Shanghai tin prices have increased slightly, while LME tin prices have decreased [92]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai tin and LME tin inventory data are given, with inventory decreases [100]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures are provided. Some contracts have shown price increases [106]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of different lithium - related products have changed, with some price increases [110]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventory and social inventory data of lithium carbonate are given, with inventory decreases [114]. Silicon - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures are provided. Prices have declined [118]. - **Downstream Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are presented, showing different trends [125][126][127]. - **Inventory Data**: Inventory data of industrial silicon and polysilicon are given, with polysilicon inventory at a relatively high level [136][144].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is weak, with most products expected to experience weak fluctuations. Specific ratings for each product include: oil (weakly fluctuating), asphalt (weakly fluctuating), high - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), low - sulfur fuel oil (weakly fluctuating), PX (fluctuating), PTA (fluctuating), pure benzene (weakly fluctuating), styrene (weakly fluctuating), MEG (weakly fluctuating), short - fiber (fluctuating), polyester bottle - chip (fluctuating), methanol (weakly fluctuating in the short - term), urea (weakly fluctuating), LLDPE (weakly fluctuating), PP (weakly fluctuating), PL (weakly fluctuating), PVC (fluctuating), and caustic soda (fluctuating) [10][11][14][17][18][19][22][24][28][29][33][34][35][37][38] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international oil price is in a stable and fluctuating state, and the Brent oil price remains within the 65 - 70 range. The SC oil price has fallen to the lower edge of the range due to high domestic crude oil inventories. The market is focused on the Israel - Hamas agreement, but there are doubts about its final implementation. The coking coal price rebounded on the first trading day after the holiday, and there is a possibility of price stabilization for coal [1]. - On the evening of October 9th, the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued an announcement on "regulating price disorderly competition and maintaining a good market order," which may slightly boost the sentiment of the domestic sluggish commodity market. For chemical products, there has been no effective production reduction. The supply side has not effectively responded to losses, and the chemical market pattern remains weak [2]. - The energy and chemical industry will continue to be weakly fluctuating, with oil as the anchor. If geopolitical disturbances gradually weaken, the oil price center is expected to continue to decline [7][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Trends - **Oil**: The US Treasury's sanctions on entities related to Iranian oil have not significantly affected oil prices. Global supply is in an increasing phase dominated by high - growth OPEC+ production, with a surplus pressure. After the weakening of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to return to a downward channel [10]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ production increase, a reduction in Saudi's export premium to Asia, and the cooling of the Middle East situation have led to a decline in the geopolitical premium, putting pressure on asphalt futures prices. The supply tension has been significantly alleviated, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [11]. - **High - sulfur fuel oil**: The sudden agreement in the Israel - Hamas conflict has led to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. Although there is an improvement in demand expectations, the impact of geopolitical upgrades on prices is expected to be short - term [11]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: It follows the weak trend of oil, facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. It is expected to maintain low - valuation operation [13]. - **PX**: Although there are some device outages, the overall supply is still relatively abundant. With the poor performance of polyester and textile clothing demand, PX profits are expected to be under pressure [14]. - **PTA**: The cost has short - term support, and the supply - demand situation in October is relatively stable. However, the market has a pessimistic expectation of future supply - demand loosening. If there is no large - scale production reduction, processing fees will remain under pressure [16]. - **Pure benzene**: The downstream pre - holiday inventory build - up has strengthened the market structure, but the supply is expected to exceed demand until the end of the year, with significant inventory accumulation pressure in October [17]. - **Styrene**: Although the supply - demand relationship is in a tight balance, the high inventory in the upstream and downstream is difficult to reduce, and the cost - side pure benzene inventory is also difficult to clear, dragging down the styrene price [18]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is gradually being realized, and the inventory accumulation inflection point is approaching. Although the inventory accumulation amplitude is limited, domestic production is expected to increase, and polyester demand may weaken [22]. - **Short - fiber**: The upstream cost fluctuates, and the short - fiber price follows slightly. Although the terminal demand has marginally improved, the procurement is still cautious, and the overall driving force is limited [23]. - **Polyester bottle - chip**: The price follows the upstream cost fluctuations. Under the joint production reduction of bottle - chip factories, the processing fees are relatively stable. The expansion space of processing fees is limited, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans [26]. - **Methanol**: Affected by the weakening of olefins and inventory accumulation, the futures price has declined. However, considering the potential disturbances from Iran, there may be some room for rebound after a continuous decline [28]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there is a supply - demand mismatch, agricultural demand is weakening, and there is no short - term positive news. The market is expected to be weakly fluctuating [29]. - **LLDPE**: It follows the weak trend of the energy and chemical market. The supply - demand situation is not optimistic, and the profit support is limited. The price is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [33]. - **PP**: Affected by the decline of PG, the price has fallen. The supply - side pressure remains, and the transmission of raw material price decline is obvious [35]. - **PL**: Affected by the decline of PG, the futures price has fallen, but the spot price has some support, and it is expected to be weakly fluctuating in the short - term [35]. - **PVC**: There are still fundamental pressures, and the cost change is expected to be small. It is expected to be cautiously weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [37]. - **Caustic soda**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory build - up and upstream start - up changes [38]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: Different products have different inter - period spread values and changes. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 0.59 with a change of 0.02, and the 1 - 5 month spread of PX is - 24 with a change of 16 [40]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of each product are different. For example, the basis of asphalt is 115 with a change of 39, and the warehouse receipt is 44430 [41]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spread data also vary. For example, the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 125 with a change of 7, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread is 426 with a change of 39 [43]. 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - Although there are sub - sections for various products such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., no specific data summaries are provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, special index, and sector index of the commodity market have different performance. The commodity 20 index increased by 1.66% to 2541.25, the industrial products index increased by 0.87% to 2238.71, and the energy index decreased by 1.98% on October 9th, 2025 [287][289].

Summary of Glass Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The glass industry is currently experiencing a turbulent phase, with expectations for a potential rebound in the fourth quarter of 2025. However, a fundamental reversal in the long-term trend appears unlikely due to persistent challenges in the real estate market, supply-side constraints, and significant inventory pressures [2][5][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Inventory and Price Dynamics**: In H1 2025, glass inventory in Hubei increased by 44% year-on-year, leading to a decline in futures prices. The futures market is under pressure due to regional price arbitrage in the spot market [1][2]. - **Cost and Losses**: Futures prices fell below the cash flow cost of petroleum coke facilities in Hubei by 25%, resulting in severe losses that contributed to a recent price rebound [1][3]. - **Production Capacity**: Current daily production capacity stands at 158,000 tons, the lowest in five years, but only a 10-12% reduction from historical peaks. Approximately 22% of production facilities have been operational for 8-10 years and are nearing a cold repair period [1][6]. - **Market Expectations**: The market is expected to remain volatile in Q3 2025, with no significant recovery in the real estate sector to drive demand. If demand does not improve and inventory continues to accumulate, market-driven production cuts may occur in Q4 without government intervention [1][6][9]. - **Future Supply Needs**: To achieve supply-demand balance, the industry needs to reduce production by about 10%. Current supply is estimated at 4.5-4.7 million tons, necessitating an increase of approximately 500,000 tons to reach a demand level of 5 million tons [3][8]. - **Regulatory Impact**: The establishment of a unified national market and related policies may reduce ineffective competition and encourage the exit of low-quality production capacities, which could have a positive long-term impact on the industry [5][10]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Feedback Loop**: The main factors affecting the negative feedback loop in the glass industry include a weak real estate market, lack of significant production cuts, and ongoing inventory pressures. Breaking this cycle requires effective production cuts or sustained demand improvement, neither of which is currently in place [9][10]. - **Production Decisions**: The industry typically avoids production cuts in H1 due to seasonal demand, with reductions more likely in Q3 or Q4 when many facilities reach their operational limits and require maintenance [11][12]. - **Cost Structure**: The cash costs for petroleum coke and natural gas are approximately 1,200-1,220 RMB and 1,300-1,350 RMB, respectively, while coal gas is cheaper at about 950-1,000 RMB. Current glass prices are around 1,000 RMB, close to the bottom [13][14]. - **Profitability Context**: Despite current losses of about 200 RMB per ton, the glass industry has historically seen profits exceeding 30% from 2016 to 2021, indicating that supply decisions are more influenced by cash flow and operational age rather than immediate profitability [15]. Regional Supply Disturbances - In the Shahe region, coal-to-gas projects are underway but face operational instability. Hubei plans to phase out petroleum coke facilities over the next few years, increasing the proportion of clean energy, although no definitive timeline has been established [16][17].