机械ETF（516960）跟踪的是细分机械指数（000812），该指数聚焦于机械设备行业，从市场中选取涉 及专用设备、通用机械等领域的优质上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映机械设备行业相关上市公司证 券的整体表现和发展趋势。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国金证券指出，8月国内储能装机稳步回升，同/环比增长58%/63%，1～8月累计装机同比+36%，美国 市场受ITC法案调整影响，8月并网量同增47%但环比回落28%。锂电行业10月排产环比增长3%～9%， 电池、负极、电解液等环节同比增幅超40%，需求端持续扩张。碳酸锂、氢氧化锂价格月涨幅达20%， 电芯及电解液价格同步上行，仅铁锂材料因供应链调整小幅下跌。固态电池技术进入关键窗口期，2025 年下半年起复合集流体将逐步量产，全固态电池中试线加速布局，预计2026～2027年实现示范装车。行 业库存周期已进入补库阶段，部分环节供需格局改善，叠加新技术突破，产业链景气度呈现多元化提 升。 ...

每逢佳节倍思"饮"，今年的中秋国庆双节却给白酒行业泼了一盆冷水。动销同比下滑15%-20%的预测让不少投资者望而却步，但有趣的是，我注意到一些不 同寻常的资金动向。这让我想起马克·吐温那句名言："历史不会重复，但总会押韵。"十年前那个同样不被看好的白酒淡季，后来发生了什么？让我们用数 据说话。 把同样的分析方法用在当前的白酒板块上，会发现几个耐人寻味的现象： 1. 高端酒分化明显：某些品牌虽然终端价格倒挂，但批发环节的资金活跃度反而提升 2. 区域龙头异动：三家地方酒企的渠道数据与股价出现背离 中信证券的研报将当前称为"行业最为艰难的时期"，这让我想起2013年的塑化剂风波。当时几乎所有分析师都在唱空白酒，但量化数据却显示机构资金在悄 悄布局茅台。如今历史似乎在重演——虽然渠道库存高企、价格倒挂严重，但我跟踪的系统显示，部分区域龙头酒的交易活跃度正在逆势攀升。 这种背离很有意思。就像在嘈杂的菜市场里，普通人听到的都是讨价还价的喧闹，而训练有素的采购员却能捕捉到某个摊位突然增加的批发量。现在的白酒 板块正是如此：表面看是动销疲软，但某些特定价位段的产品正在形成资金共识。 今年8月半导体行情的爆发给我上了生动一课 ...

2025 年 09 月 27 日 宏观研究团队 低基数与反内卷共振修复利润 ——兼评 8 月企业利润数据 hening@kysec.cn 何宁（分析师） 陈策（分析师） chence@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790522110002 证书编号：S0790524020002 事件：2025 年 1-8 月全国规上工企利润累计同比 0.9%，前值-1.7%；营业收入累 计同比 2.3%，前值 2.3%。 低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，工业企业景气度边际回升 1、8 月工企营收小幅改善、利润增速显著转正。测算 8 月营收当月同比约 2.3%、 较前值改善了 1.2 个百分点；利润当月同比则明显回升了 21.9 个百分点至 20.4%， 连续 3 个月边际改善。拆分来看（利润增速=工业增加值*PPI*利润率同比），三 因子对 8 月利润增速的贡献分别为+5.6、-3.2、+17.7 个百分点。价（PPI）的负 贡献见底回升，利（利润率同比）由负贡献大幅转为正贡献。分类型来看，8 月 国企利润改善较快，明显好于私营和股份制工企。 2、低基数叠加统一大市场纵深推进，利润率同比回升。8 月工业企业每百元营 收构成中 ...

经济压力显现，股指高波动收敛 上海东证期货有限公司 东证衍生品研究院 王培丞 宏观高级分析师 从业资格号：F03093911 投资咨询号：Z0017305 目录 • 四季度国内宏观展望：考验来临 • 四季度股指展望：高位抉择，轻指数、重结构 王培丞 宏观分析师；从业资格号：F03093911；交易咨询号：Z0017305 四季度国内经济压力加大 图表：国内经济指标增长趋势 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 24/10 24/12 25/03 25/05 25/07 24/09 24/11 25/02 25/04 25/06 25/08 工业增加值 服务业生产指 数 社零 制造业投资 基建投资 房地产投资 出口 当月同比(%) 累计同比(%) 4.2 4.4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the pig market is in a high-premium situation. Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Price**: The Henan spot price is 12,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The prices of the futures contracts "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 12,730 yuan/ton, 13,345 yuan/ton, and 12,755 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 39,050 lots, 19,377 lots, and 8,294 lots respectively, with changes of - 5,610 lots, - 3,173 lots, and + 475 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 90,819 lots, 66,711 lots, and 47,802 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,695 lots, - 144 lots, and + 443 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - **Spread**: The basis of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are - 50 yuan/ton, - 665 yuan/ton, and - 75 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between "pig11 - 1" is - 615 yuan/ton, and the spread between "pig1 - 3" is 590 yuan/ton [1]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]. [Market Logic] Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative impact of US tariff policies is gradually emerging, international trade activities are slowing down, and the global economy will still face downward pressure. The Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle, but the reduction of the balance sheet continues, which may lead to a shortage of US dollar liquidity and financial de - leveraging. The stock markets of major developed countries such as Europe and the United States are at historical highs, and asset prices are at risk of being re - evaluated. - China's economic recovery foundation is not solid, with fixed - asset investment growth continuing to decline and consumption growth slowing marginally. Only industrial production remains at a high level. Macroeconomic policies need to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, and the proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, while the monetary policy will remain moderately loose. - In the fourth quarter, the valuation of stock indices will be supported by risk appetite at the denominator end, but stock indices should still be treated with a wide - range oscillation mindset before corporate profits improve significantly. The restart of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle will narrow the Sino - US interest rate spread, giving more room for China's monetary policy, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds is expected to decline. The uncertainty of US tariff policies is gradually fading, and the international geopolitical situation is expected to ease. Gold is at risk of a deep adjustment [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook - **Market Performance in Q3 2025**: Global stock markets rose in resonance, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq reaching new highs. Commodities such as coal, steel, and non - ferrous metals rebounded. Gold broke through upwards after 4 months of consolidation, with London spot gold approaching $3,800 per ounce, up more than 40% for the year [4]. - **Outlook for Q4**: The negative impact of US tariff policies will further appear, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice in Q4, and the global economy will face downward pressure. If the US job market weakens further, the Fed may shift from "preventive" to "relief" interest rate cuts. Global stock markets may face asset value re - evaluation risks [5]. - **US Situation**: Employment pressure is increasing, and the Fed's monetary policy has returned to the interest rate cut cycle. In August, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.7, the consumer confidence index dropped to 58.2, new non - farm employment was 22,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in September, and the dot - plot shows two more cuts this year [7][9]. - **European Situation**: The European Central Bank suspended interest rate cuts in September, and the benchmark interest rate is approaching the neutral level. The eurozone economy has warmed up, with the manufacturing PMI returning to the expansion range, low unemployment, and stable inflation [11][14]. - **Japanese Situation**: The Japanese economy maintains a moderate recovery, and the central bank maintains a slow interest rate hike rhythm. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.9, the consumer confidence index reached a new high, the unemployment rate dropped to 2.3%, and inflation remained above 2% [16][19]. Domestic Economic Situation Analysis - **Overall Situation in Q3 2025**: Affected by US tariff policies, China's economic downward pressure has emerged again, with fixed - asset investment declining, consumption growth slowing, and only industrial production remaining high. The foundation of economic recovery is not solid, and demand is insufficient [21]. - **Negative Impact of US Tariff Policies**: In August, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.4, still in the contraction range. From January to August, fixed - asset investment growth slowed, industrial production slowed slightly but remained high, consumption growth slowed, CPI turned negative, PPI decline narrowed, and foreign trade growth slowed [23][25]. - **Fiscal and Monetary Policies**: The proactive fiscal policy is being accelerated, with super - long - term special treasury bonds and local special bonds mostly issued. The monetary policy will remain loose, and there is more room for operation with the Fed's interest rate cuts. Deposit rates are expected to be cut, and there may be a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut in Q4 [31][33]. Asset Allocation - **Stock Indices**: Corporate profits are still declining, and the inventory cycle is in the active de - stocking stage. There is still room for the risk - free rate to decline, and there are many positive factors affecting risk appetite. In Q4, stock indices are likely to oscillate widely, and the key is whether corporate profits can improve significantly [38][39]. - **Bonds**: The negative impact of US tariff policies is emerging, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates twice. The Sino - US interest rate spread will narrow, and China's monetary policy has more room. The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds may decline [40]. - **Gold**: In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices depend on the US dollar and real interest rates. In Q4, as trade policy uncertainty decreases and geopolitical tensions ease, gold may face a deep adjustment due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar and high real interest rates [41][42].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is expected to break through the range, but there is a risk of a stage correction at the end of the year. The price of copper is predicted to gradually rise from 2022 - 2026, and the market in 4Q25 will seek an upward breakthrough in a volatile manner. [4] - The trading strategy suggests paying attention to the positive spread arbitrage of Shanghai copper in 4Q25 and remaining on the sidelines for the domestic - foreign spread. For unilateral trading, it is advisable to arrange medium - term long positions on dips. [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Judgment and Strategy - The key factors affecting the copper market are the dollar cycle, tariff expectations, inventory cycle, and disturbance risks. In a structural market with increased volatility, the accumulation purchase strategy is more suitable for hedging. [2][3] - The long - term bullish logic includes the dollar credit cycle, supply - chain risks, resource bottlenecks, strong new demand momentum, and stable old demand. However, there are risks such as policy risks (tariff escalation), medium - long - term liquidity tightening expectations, and a significant decline in domestic demand. [4] US Tariff Impact - On August 1st, there was an unexpected change in the copper tariff policy, with raw materials including refined copper and anode copper getting a phased tariff exemption. There is no need to overly worry about the risk of copper inventory moving out of the US, and it is necessary to continue tracking the marginal change in the spread and the delivery situation of US LME inventory. This does not constitute a short - term strong negative factor but restricts the short - term upward elasticity of copper prices. [5] - The US refined copper inventory increased by more than 500,000 tons year - on - year from January to July (the risk of concentrated delivery on COMEX still exists). The necessary conditions for inventory to move out of the US are a negative spread between COMEX and LME and the spread being sufficient to cover transportation and capital costs. [5] Fed Politicization - In the short term, the trend of Fed politicization, combined with weak dollar and inflation - rising expectations, is positive for copper prices. In the medium - long term, the risk of severe inflation and subsequent inflation - control measures will be negative for copper prices. [6] Supply Side - Copper Mine - The production of major copper - producing countries shows different trends. For example, from 2020 - 2026F, Chile's production is expected to increase from 5.73 million tons to 5.7 million tons, while Australia's is expected to decrease from 850,000 tons to 750,000 tons. [9] - Geopolitical conflicts, unstable political situations, extreme weather, labor union movements, and complex environmental factors in copper - producing regions may lead to unexpected risks in copper supply. [13] Supply Side - Cold Material - There has been a change in the structure of imported scrap copper, with the US re - exporting to Thailand and Japan, while Europe and the Asia - Pacific region are increasing the use of scrap copper. Domestic scrap copper supply is not weak, but the limitation lies in the processing link. The profit of recycled copper processing continues to be under pressure. [19] Supply Side - Raw Materials - China's copper raw material supply - demand gap is expanding. At the current raw material supply level, high - production in the fourth quarter is difficult to sustain. The surge in non - standard raw material imports and raw material inventory are used to supplement smelting raw materials, but their sustainability is questionable. [24] Supply Side - Refined Copper - The spot processing fees (TC/RC) are hovering at a low level, and attention should be paid to the new long - term agreement negotiation. The domestic sulfuric acid price has peaked and declined, and the RMB exchange rate has appreciated, leading to an expected expansion of smelting processing losses and increasing the operating pressure on smelters from 4Q25 - 1Q26. [28] - Overseas smelters are facing raw material shortages, with an expanding scope of production cuts. The new round of overseas capacity expansion will be restricted by the tight raw material supply. [34] Demand Side - Macro Perspective - The global economy is in the transition stage from "recession" to "recovery", with market expectations fluctuating. The policy cycle is in a stage of loose liquidity and expanding fiscal stimulus. The global manufacturing industry may continue to recover, and a more obvious upward trend may be observed in 1H26. [44] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Domestic) - In the power equipment sector, investment by the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid maintains high growth, while local project investment is weak. The demand for power equipment is expected to improve in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to the "15th Five - Year Plan" related plans. [49] - The core drivers of domestic demand are consumption - stimulating policies and weather factors. The core drivers of external demand are that export demand weakened in the second quarter, while demand from the Asia - Pacific and the Middle East is relatively strong. [56] - In the real estate sector, the decline in completion and new construction areas is narrowing, and the drag on copper demand from the real estate industry is gradually weakening. Policy support is expected to continue to strengthen. [60] Demand Side - Micro Perspective (Overseas) - In the US, micro - demand is resilient, with C - end demand showing a downward trend and B - end demand remaining strong. The probability of a severe recession and a sharp decline in demand is low, and the actual annual growth rate of demand is greater than 5%. [68] - In Europe, terminal demand is differentiated, with strong demand in the power sector and weak demand in consumer goods. In Japan, demand is stable with a slight decline. In emerging markets, both C - end and B - end demand are strong, such as India's direct copper demand (including scrap) growing by 19% year - on - year in 2Q25. [72] New Energy Industry Chain - The demand for traditional new energy sources (wind and solar power) has slowed down, but the demand for new energy vehicles is strong. The demand from emerging industries such as AI data centers and energy storage is growing strongly. [77] Supply - Demand Balance - From 2022 - 2026, the global copper supply - demand situation is experiencing "weak shortage - expanding gap - expanding gap - narrowing gap - expanding gap". [4][80] Trading Logic - The main trading logics in 2025 include the dollar cycle, inventory cycle, and manufacturing cycle. If certain scenarios such as A, B, D, F, H, or K occur, the copper price may rise by more than 20% in a stage. [85] - The secondary trading logics include factors such as the continuous weakening or strengthening of global or regional manufacturing industry prosperity, policy stimulus intensity, and unexpected events in the industry. If scenarios such as E, C, G, or J occur, the copper price may fall by more than 20% in a stage. [85]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the liquor industry [10] Core Insights - The liquor inventory cycle is gradually turning, with expectations of a demand recovery driven by ongoing economic policies and improved consumer confidence. The industry is entering a critical phase for left-side layout [2][8] - Current valuations and fund holdings in the liquor industry are at historical lows, indicating a favorable time for allocation. Leading liquor companies are showing strong dividend support [2][8] Summary by Sections Inventory Management - The liquor industry has clear inventory cycle fluctuations, with different phases affecting stock performance. The current phase indicates a shift from passive inventory accumulation to active inventory reduction, suggesting a more scientific and rational management approach by manufacturers [6][20][24] Demand Recovery - The demand for liquor is closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. Historical data shows that liquor industry revenue growth aligns with GDP growth, indicating potential for gradual recovery as the economy improves [36][39] Head Brand Concentration - The trend of market share concentration towards leading brands continues, with top companies maintaining stable growth despite overall market slowdowns. In 2024, listed liquor companies accounted for 28% of the total production, a historical high [42][44] Mid-Autumn Festival Performance Review - Historical performance around the Mid-Autumn Festival shows varying results for liquor stocks compared to the CSI 300 index. The fundamental performance remains the decisive factor for excess returns during this period [49][52]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The probability of concentrated pressure release in the spot market before the double festivals increases, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts face a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The 11 - month contract's position reaches a new high, and the market game enters an accelerated stage. The price center of the March and May contracts may decline, and the spread structure of the July contract maintains a reverse spread. The short - term support level of the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Price**: The prices of Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot are 12,930 yuan/ton, 12,450 yuan/ton, and 13,460 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of futures contracts such as生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 12,825 yuan/ton, 13,350 yuan/ton, and 12,840 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 38,008 lots, 18,413 lots, and 5,682 lots respectively, with changes of - 19,098 lots, - 6,891 lots, and - 4,080 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 96,751 lots, 66,786 lots, and 44,955 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,238 lots, 120 lots, and 1,963 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spread**: The basis of生猪2511,生猪2601, and生猪2603 are 105 yuan/ton, - 420 yuan/ton, and 90 yuan/ton respectively. The spreads of生猪11 - 1 and生猪1 - 3 are - 525 yuan/ton and 510 yuan/ton respectively [2] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [3] 3. Market Logic - Group significantly reduces supply, but the weight increases again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs weakens, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September increases significantly. The production capacity cycle and inventory cycle resonate from September to October. The near - month contracts face high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium. The purchase sentiment of piglets declines, and the price drops accelerate, corresponding to a decline in the cost of slaughter in March - May [4]

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical sector is experiencing a reversal driven by multiple factors, including the elimination of outdated capacity, control of new supply, initiation of inventory cycles, and steepening cost curves [1][5][21]. - The chemical industry is currently at a low point in price spread data, with profit margins at historical lows, but signs of recovery are emerging as net profit margins have increased from 4.4% in 2024 to 5.8% in the first half of 2025 [1][6]. Key Insights - **Reversal Timing**: The current reversal point for the chemical sector is supported by domestic policy changes and the end of a three-year deep destocking cycle overseas. A significant upturn in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected in 2-3 quarters [3][13]. - **Capital Expenditure Trends**: Capital expenditure in the chemical industry is showing a contraction, with fixed asset investment turning negative in the second half of 2025. This trend typically precedes a recovery in PPI [4][12]. - **Cash Flow Stability**: Despite declining profits, leading companies maintain stable operating cash flows, with a cash flow-to-market value ratio of approximately 7.9%, indicating good value [6]. Global Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies have a significantly higher Return on Assets (ROA) compared to 2015 cycle lows and overseas competitors, with China accounting for 43% of global production [7]. - The shift of European energy supply to American LNG has drastically increased natural gas costs, impacting the European chemical industry, particularly in basic chemicals and polymers [8]. Challenges and Opportunities - The European fine chemical sector faces potential market share declines due to supply chain disruptions and the relocation of manufacturing industries to China [10]. - The chemical industry is expected to see varying growth rates across different product categories, with oil and coal chemical products projected to grow faster than phosphorus, fluorine, and silicon products [11]. Investment Strategies - **Stock Selection**: Investors are advised to focus on cyclical stocks with strong recovery potential, such as Wanhua Chemical and Tongkun Group, which may benefit from market cycle shifts [27][30]. - **Market Dynamics**: The relationship between PPI turning points and excess returns in the chemical sector suggests that early positioning can yield significant benefits [14][19]. - **Long-term Growth**: Companies like Juhua Co., Sailun Tire, and Kingfa Sci. & Tech. are highlighted for their long-term growth potential due to their competitive advantages and market positioning [36][40]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is on the cusp of a significant turnaround, driven by structural changes and market dynamics. Investors should remain vigilant for opportunities in leading companies that are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends while being mindful of the challenges posed by global competition and supply chain shifts.