固收 股债双弱，怎么做？20251124 摘要 当前股债双杀主要源于市场对流动性预期的转变，而非流动性本身。央 行报告暗示信贷投放增速可能下降，同业杠杆降低，总量政策预期应降 低，结构性工具成为流动性投放主要方式，影响市场情绪。 地产政策加码传言，特别是贴息政策，强化了市场对跨周期政策的认知， 引发交易情绪波动，导致股市和债市疲软。市场意识到结构性政策的实 际操作，而非仅仅是口头承诺。 30 年国债活跃券争夺反映了交易情绪，但本质上是一种噱头。尽管每只 券都有潜力成为活跃券，但并非所有券都能持续保持活跃，交易盘应利 用市场情绪榨干最后一点价值。 T2 债券流动性较差，T6 债券相对活跃。当前 T2 和 T6 利差约为 5 个 BP，低于理论值 7 个 BP，主要原因是 T2 流动性预期下滑，而非市场交 易情绪过于乐观。未来利差预计将回归至 6-7 个 BP 水平。 纯配置盘不宜参与日内无法反向交易的短暂行情，应从长期视角看待利 差变化趋势，进行债券持仓切换。关注短端品种和 3-7 年政金、3-5 年 普信等品种，这些品种近期表现出较好的相对价值。 未来几个月应重点关注短端品种和中期政金、普信等债券。12 月及 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a significant downturn, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping approximately 200 points in just six trading days, nearing the 3800-point level [1] - A notable "long bearish candle" was recorded on the weekly chart, indicating a strong selling pressure [1] Individual Stock Performance - A decline of around 10% in individual stocks is common, with many previously strong stocks facing consecutive trading halts, leading to substantial losses for investors [2] Market Sentiment - There are questions regarding whether the current market adjustment is a normal technical correction or a sign of a true market peak [3] - Increased panic selling was observed, particularly on Friday, with a significant rise in trading volume, characterized by a desire to exit positions regardless of price [3] External Positive News - Two external positive developments emerged over the weekend: potential easing of sales restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chips and renewed expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [4] - These developments are crucial as they relate to technology growth logic and liquidity risk appetite, which could significantly impact the market in the coming weeks [4] Nvidia H200 Chip Sales - The potential easing of restrictions on Nvidia's H200 chip sales to China reflects a marginal improvement in economic relations, with increased interactions between the two countries [5] - Nvidia faces substantial pressure as China is a critical market for AI computing power, and a complete ban would mean forfeiting significant revenue [7] - Domestic AI chip manufacturers are reportedly closing the performance gap with Nvidia's H200, indicating a shift towards competitive dynamics rather than a complete market exit for Nvidia [10][12] Market and Sector Impact - Short-term impacts include emotional volatility and sector differentiation, with potential sell-offs in certain domestic alternatives while Nvidia-linked companies may see a short-term boost [13][14] - In the medium to long term, the narrative of domestic chip alternatives remains unchanged, focusing on self-reliance and technological independence despite the easing of restrictions [16] Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Recent weak employment data has led to a resurgence in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, with probabilities now exceeding 50% [18] - A potential rate cut would lower U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing the attractiveness of risk assets, including stocks and commodities, and easing pressures on emerging markets [19] A-share Market Implications - The combination of the Nvidia news and the Fed's rate cut expectations may shift market sentiment from panic to rational recovery, with a likelihood of entering a phase of technical repair and consolidation [22] - The long-term outlook remains positive, with external liquidity trends shifting towards gradual easing, supporting A-share valuations [23] Technical Analysis - The weekly chart indicates a significant shift from a stable upward trend to a clear breakdown, with key support around the 3700-point level [27][31] - The market's ability to stabilize around the 3865-point level will be crucial for determining the next steps, with potential for either a recovery or further declines [33] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced portfolio, focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and reasonable valuations, while avoiding high-risk speculative plays [34] - The current market phase should be viewed as a technical correction rather than a definitive end to the bull market, emphasizing the importance of strategic asset allocation [34]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]

Core Viewpoint - The foundation of the Hong Kong stock market bull run remains intact, but the evolution is likely to exhibit characteristics of "oscillating upward with a gradually rising focus" rather than a rapid one-sided increase. The fundamental drivers in November are strong, emphasizing the value of high-prosperity sectors [1][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent volatility in the Hang Seng Technology Index is attributed to the reversal of previous favorable factors, leading to temporary liquidity pressure in the Hong Kong stock market [1]. - The current net profit growth rate and price increase may appear divergent; however, the recent rise in the Hong Kong stock market is strongly supported by fundamentals, with new industries experiencing explosive growth while traditional sectors lag [4]. - Industries with performance support, such as new energy, AI, non-ferrous metals, steel, and semiconductors, have seen larger price increases, while sectors with declining performance growth, like real estate, infrastructure, consumption, and finance, have seen smaller price increases [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Over 70% of companies in the Hong Kong stock market are domestic enterprises, with revenue and profits derived from the Chinese economy. The operational trends of Hong Kong companies can be inferred from A-share financial reports [4]. - The overall stability and improvement in Chinese enterprises are attributed to advanced manufacturing, particularly in technology and external demand, despite ongoing pressures in traditional economic sectors [4]. Group 3: Future Triggers for Market Upturn - Potential triggers for the next phase of the Hong Kong stock market's rise include improvements in liquidity expectations, such as a dovish shift in the Federal Reserve's stance, the end of the U.S. government shutdown, and the cessation of balance sheet reduction by the Fed [8]. - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has decreased to 66.9%, influenced by factors like the government shutdown and the Fed's balance sheet policies, which have led to a significant widening of the interest rate spread between SOFR and IORB [8][10].

Group 1 - The central bank resumed government bond trading operations in October, with a net injection of 20 billion yuan, indicating a shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy [1] - Analysts from CITIC Securities believe that the central bank's unexpected resumption of bond trading signals an improvement in market liquidity expectations [1] - Zhongyou Securities expresses a more optimistic outlook for the year-end bond market, noting that interbank certificate of deposit rates are currently in a high allocation value range, suggesting potential downward pressure on short-term yields [1] Group 2 - Related products include the benchmark government bond ETF (511100), which focuses on medium to long-term bonds with low fees [2] - The credit bond ETF fund (511200) targets medium to short-term credit bonds, also with low fees and high credit quality [2] - The Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETF (551550) offers medium to short-term bonds with low fees and high credit quality [2]

Group 1 - The report identifies that the stock-bond seesaw effect is more common than both stocks and bonds being strong or weak simultaneously, with a higher probability of returning to the seesaw state after periods of dual strength or weakness [3][8]. - Growth expectations drive the stock-bond seesaw, while liquidity expectations can terminate it. Weak growth expectations lead to weak stocks and strong bonds, while strong growth expectations can result in strong stocks and weak bonds [3][8]. - A four-quadrant framework based on growth and interest rate expectations can be constructed to illustrate the relative relationship between stocks and bonds, showing how these expectations influence market dynamics [3][8]. Group 2 - The report suggests that when the stock-bond seesaw is present, there are strong price signals within equity sectors, allowing for effective industry strategies to be constructed [3][8]. - Current liquidity expectations are stable, indicating a foundation for a slow bull market, and the report continues to recommend a dynamic all-weather strategy under the seesaw market conditions [3][8]. - Historical data shows that fast bull markets are typically accompanied by rising equity volatility, while the current market exhibits stable equity volatility, supporting the slow bull market outlook [3][8]. Group 3 - The report outlines various scenarios following the stock-bond seesaw, including transitions from strong stocks and weak bonds to dual strength, and from weak stocks and strong bonds to dual weakness [21][37]. - The transition from strong stocks and weak bonds to weak stocks and strong bonds is often accompanied by a decline in growth expectations, while the reverse transition typically requires an increase in growth expectations [26][45]. - The report emphasizes that the core factors determining market direction after the seesaw are liquidity expectations and growth expectations, which can lead to different outcomes based on their movements [36][45].

Group 1 - The macro growth factor continues to rise, while inflation indicators show a weakening rebound, with domestic CPI turning negative at -0.4% and PPI's decline narrowing to -2.9%, indicating persistent internal demand issues [4] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are driving upward global liquidity expectations, benefiting Asian equity markets, with the Korean Composite Index rising by 5.94% and the Hang Seng Tech Index by 5.31% [4][9] - The A-share market shows a preference for growth styles, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing by 5.48%, while small-cap indices outperform large-cap blue chips [4] Group 2 - Recommendations for asset allocation include favoring high-grade credit bonds in the bond market, adjusting duration flexibly, and focusing on bank and insurance sector movements [5] - In the overseas equity market, the report suggests monitoring interest rate-sensitive sectors due to limited short-term rebound potential for the dollar and significantly raised interest rate cut expectations [5] - For gold, it is recommended to increase allocations to gold and silver as they are core assets during the interest rate cut cycle, with expectations for Shanghai gold to break previous highs [5] Group 3 - The report indicates that the overall liquidity environment remains supportive for market valuation recovery and structural trends, with a significant decrease in average daily trading volume in the A-share market [56] - The A-share valuation levels have increased, with the price-to-earnings ratio rising to 50.38 times and the price-to-book ratio reaching 5.60 times, suggesting that market expectations for future corporate earnings may be overly optimistic [60] - The report highlights that the earnings expectations for A-shares are weaker than historical averages, with a projected rolling one-year earnings growth rate of 10.3% and revenue growth rate of 5.9% [61]

Core Viewpoint - The global stock market is experiencing a paradox where bad economic news leads to positive market reactions, driven by strong expectations of future policy easing [1][2]. Group 1: Unusual Phenomenon - Bad economic data is now interpreted as good news for the market, as it increases the likelihood of central banks easing monetary policy [2]. - Examples include: - Weak U.S. non-farm payroll data leading to a stock market surge due to increased rate cut probabilities [2]. - A country's CPI inflation data declining unexpectedly, resulting in a stock market rise as it suggests potential early rate cuts [2]. - Geopolitical risks causing both gold and Bitcoin to rise, driven by heightened risk aversion and expectations of central bank liquidity [2]. Group 2: Deep Analysis - There is a fundamental shift in three core logics: - Central bank policy priorities have shifted from "anti-inflation" to "anti-recession," indicating a readiness to ease when recession risks outweigh inflation concerns [3]. - Liquidity expectations are now overshadowing corporate earnings fundamentals, leading to higher asset valuations even amid declining profits [4]. - Institutional investors are strategically positioning themselves to benefit from anticipated policy shifts rather than waiting for economic data to improve [5]. Group 3: UNFX Strategy Perspective - Different investor styles require distinct strategies: - Trend followers should respect market trends and avoid countering the prevailing market sentiment, even if valuations seem unreasonable [6]. - Value investors should maintain focus on individual stocks with stable cash flows and reasonable valuations, without overreacting to short-term market fluctuations [8]. - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid linear extrapolation of current market logic and remain cautious of potential policy disappointments that could lead to market reversals [9][10].

Market Overview - Macro growth factors have stabilized, with the Jianxin Gaojin growth factor turning positive, indicating a recovery in macro growth expectations[4] - The ChiNext Index surged by 8.58%, leading global markets, driven by a renewed preference for technology growth sectors[9] - Market risk appetite has improved, with trading volume increasing by 24.1% week-on-week, reflecting heightened investor participation[57] Inflation and Economic Indicators - CPI year-on-year growth is at 0.1%, while PPI remains low, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[4] - The manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slight contraction in manufacturing activity[39] Asset Class Recommendations - Fixed Income: Favor high-grade credit bonds and adjust duration flexibly, focusing on bank and insurance sector movements[5] - Equities: In the U.S., focus on technology sectors with long-term AI investment opportunities, as economic data shows resilience[5] - Commodities: Structural differentiation is evident, with strong performance in soybean meal (+5.59%) due to supply concerns[4] Risk Factors - Key risks include policy adjustments, market volatility, geopolitical shocks, and liquidity transmission risks[6] Valuation and Earnings Expectations - A-share valuations have increased, with the CSI 800's P/E ratio at the 13th percentile of the past three years, indicating rising valuation pressure[64] - Analysts project a 9.9% year-on-year earnings growth for the CSI 800, with revenue growth expectations at 6.0%[65]

Group 1: Gold Futures Market Performance - As of July 21, the main gold futures in Shanghai reported a price of 784.74 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.63% [1] - The opening price for the main gold futures was 784.70 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 787.80 CNY and a low of 784.20 CNY [1] Group 2: Macroeconomic News - EU diplomats are exploring broader potential countermeasures against U.S. tariffs but prioritize negotiations with the U.S. [1] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed a focus on high-quality deals rather than completing transactions by August 1, indicating a desire to avoid conflict with Europe [1] - Indonesia's 19% U.S. tariff may take effect before August 1, depending on a joint statement [1] Group 3: Federal Reserve Insights - The Federal Reserve's website indicates a 97.4% probability of maintaining interest rates in July, with a 2.6% chance of a 25 basis point cut [3] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 41.4%, while the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut is 57.2% [3] Group 4: Institutional Perspectives - The imminent implementation of reciprocal tariffs is intensifying economic negotiations, leading to renewed market anxiety [4] - Ongoing pressure from Trump on Powell is contributing to market unease and may soften expectations for sustained high interest rates from the Federal Reserve [4] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and policies is expected to lead to inflation rebound and economic slowdown, with precious metals likely to maintain an upward trend amid this uncertainty [4]