【沥青】 | 11/11/2 > 国技期货 | | 能源 日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年11月25日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ☆☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | 女女女 | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | | | F03107558 Z0021515 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价反弹,SC01合约日内涨0.67%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛,一方面上周五 美国对俄两油制裁正式生效，印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生，另一方面本周四最后期限前美乌 就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面临更大的累库预期，油价下行驱动仍 在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的扰动。 【燃料油&低硫燃料油】 高硫短期仍受供应抗动支 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 国投期货研究院 (原油) 隔夜国际油价反弹,布伦特01合约涨1.41%。俄乌地缘风险再次陷入制裁现实与和谈预期的纠葛, 一方面上周五美国对俄两油制裁正式生效,印度炼厂进一步规避俄油采购的行为已经发生,另一方 面本周四最后期限前美鸟就和平计划的谈判仍有不确定性。供需方面四季度、明年一季度市场仍面 临更大的累库预期,油价下行驱动仍在,本周重点关注俄乌和平方案谈判进展及委内地缘风险的犹 动。 【贵金属】 隔夜贵金属上涨。随着多位美联储官员表态主张12月降息，利率市场隐含降息概率升至80%。 俄乌 相关方围绕美方提出的和平计划展开讨论和博弈。市场不确定性依然较强,贵金属高位震荡等待方 向性突破。 【铜】 隔夜铜价震荡，伦铜尾盘随贵金属走高，另一联储官员表达侧重就业的降息态度，两市铜价暂时在 MA40日均线存在韧性支撑。国内铜精矿加工费长单谈判备受关注。交割换月后,沪粤延续升水,分 别在85、125元，倾向国内现货端有一定看涨情绪，货源较集中。SMM社库减少1.39万吨在18.06万 吨。前期少量高位空单被动止盈位置从8.7万下调到8.65万。 【铝】 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].

Core Insights - The domestic futures market for natural rubber is experiencing a significant decline, with the main contract opening at 15,400.00 CNY/ton and a drop of 2.68% observed during the trading session [1] Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of the midday close, the highest price for natural rubber futures reached 15,465.00 CNY, while the lowest was 15,050.00 CNY [1] - The total warehouse receipts for natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,220 tons compared to the previous trading day, totaling 121,670 tons [1] Export Data - Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 1.993 million tons, reflecting an 8% year-on-year decline [1] - Specific export figures include: - Standard rubber: 1.116 million tons, down 20% year-on-year - Sheet rubber: 308,000 tons, up 22% year-on-year - Latex: 556,000 tons, up 10% year-on-year [1] - Exports to China amounted to 759,000 tons, marking a 6% increase year-on-year [1] Inventory Levels - As of October 20, 2025, the rubber inventory at the Osaka Exchange was 3,466 tons, an increase of 251 tons from 3,215 tons on October 10 [1] Future Market Outlook - New Century Futures indicates that both bonded and general trade warehouses are continuing to deplete inventory, with a reduction in total port inflow [2] - Hualian Futures notes that rubber prices are adjusting in line with overall market trends, with recent rainfall and typhoons affecting rubber tapping in major production areas [2] - The demand side remains pressured by the domestic real estate market, with no improvement expected, although heavy truck sales have seen a significant increase of over 80% year-on-year in September [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that plastic futures experienced a rapid decline, with the main contract dropping to a low of 6998.00 yuan and closing at 7004.00 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.68% [1] - Guantong Futures predicts that plastic prices will experience a downward trend in the near term, citing a decrease in operating rates due to maintenance of new HDPE facilities and a current operating rate around 89% [2] - The downstream operating rate for PE has increased by 1.21 percentage points to 44.13%, with agricultural film entering peak season, leading to a rise in orders and inventory [2] Group 2 - Ruida Futures anticipates a weak fluctuation for L2601 post-holiday, with expectations of a price range between 7100-7220 yuan, influenced by OPEC's decision to slightly increase production and concerns over U.S. government shutdown affecting economic growth [3] - The supply side is expected to see a significant increase in domestic polyethylene production due to the restart of multiple facilities, while downstream demand for agricultural films is projected to reach its peak for the year [3] - The overall inventory is expected to rise due to increased supply, leading to a clear expectation of inventory accumulation [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report MEG - The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol (MEG) is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4200 - 4400. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options with an exercise price of 4150 [1][3][5]. PX - TA - In the short term, the absolute price of the PX - TA industry chain is under pressure, but the compression space is limited. It is advisable to consider cautious long positions or expand the TA - SC spread. For the processing fee, it is recommended to expand the TA01 contract processing fee below 270 [6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs MEG Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The total load remains stable at 74.93% (+0.02%), with coal - based load rising to 79.38% (+2.69%). The port inventory is expected to increase by about 10,000 tons. The coal - based marginal profit is under significant pressure [2]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%). The terminal demand is lackluster, and the speculative sentiment is weak. The bottle - chip processing fee has improved [2]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and MEG in East China decreased from 4378 to 4352 yuan/ton [8]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the MEG coal - based profit dropped from 39 to - 64 yuan/ton [8][10]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased from 45.9 to 46.5 tons [9]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of MEG show certain fluctuations, with production, import, and demand changing over time [12]. Maintenance Situation - Many domestic and foreign MEG devices are in maintenance, such as Xinjiang Tianye Phase III, which was restarted and then shut down again, and two sets of Shell's devices in the United States are under maintenance [1][15]. PX - TA Fundamental Situation - Supply side: The PX load is adjusted down to 86.3% (-1.5%), and the PTA load remains stable at 76.8%. The PX is expected to accumulate inventory by about 100,000 tons in September [6]. - Demand side: The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak [7]. Key Data - Price: Brent crude oil dropped from 66.45 to 66.05 dollars/barrel, and PTA in East China decreased from 4565 to 4555 yuan/ton [10]. - Spread and profit: The PX - N spread decreased from 232.8 to 227.3 dollars/ton, and the PTA domestic processing fee increased from 115 to 151 yuan/ton [10]. - Inventory: The PTA social inventory increased from 208 to 210 tons [10]. Supply and Demand Balance - From 2024 to 2026, the supply and demand of PX - TA change over time, with production, import, and demand showing different trends [13]. Maintenance Situation - Many PX and PTA devices are under maintenance, such as Fuhai Dahua's 700,000 - ton PX line and Zhongtai Petrochemical's PTA device [6][17][18]. Polyester Fundamental Situation - The polyester load is adjusted down to 91.4% (-0.2%), and the terminal demand is weak. The inventory of filament and staple fiber has slightly increased [2][7]. Key Data - Price: POY decreased from 6650 to 6625 yuan/ton, and FDY dropped from 7025 to 6875 yuan/ton [11]. - Spread and profit: The POY processing fee increased from 185 to 207 yuan/ton, and the FDY processing fee decreased from 110 to 7 yuan/ton [11]. - Inventory: The POY inventory days increased from 19.3 to 21.7 days, and the FDY inventory days increased from 21.4 to 22.7 days [11]. Production and Sales - The production - sales ratio of polyester fiber filament and staple fiber shows certain fluctuations [112]. Export and Import - The export and import volumes of polyester products show different trends over time [116][119]. Profit - The processing profit of polyester products such as filament and staple fiber shows certain seasonal changes [121]. Downstream of Polyester Weaving - The weaving start - up rate remains stable, and the inventory of grey cloth is high. The order volume is insufficient [2][7]. Spinning Mill - The start - up rate of the spinning mill shows certain fluctuations, and the inventory of yarn is at a certain level [137][139]. Terminal Macro - The production and sales data of downstream products such as cloth, yarn, and soft drinks show certain seasonal changes [149][150][151]. Spinning and Clothing Export - The export volume and value index of textile and clothing show certain fluctuations [153][155][157]. Global Spinning and Clothing - The import, inventory, and export data of textile and clothing in countries such as the United States, Vietnam, and India show different trends [162][163][165].

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The current situation of ethylene glycol in East China shows an increase in port inventory, while production and capacity utilization have decreased, indicating a complex market dynamic with potential implications for pricing and supply [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory and Production Data - As of September 15, the port inventory of ethylene glycol in East China reached 395,600 tons, an increase of 32,400 tons compared to the previous Thursday and an increase of 8,800 tons compared to the previous Monday [1]. - The weekly production of ethylene glycol in China was 404,600 tons, a decrease of 5,400 tons or 1.33% from the previous week [1]. - The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate was 66.55%, down by 0.90% week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Price Outlook - Newhu Futures indicated that the main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market lies between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels, with no significant accumulation pressure expected in September and October [2]. - Southwest Futures noted that while domestic ethylene glycol production is high and new facilities are coming online, increased overseas maintenance and reduced imports have led to a significant decrease in inventory levels, suggesting potential pressure on prices [3]. - Despite the low inventory situation, Newhu Futures believes that the price of ethylene glycol has strong support around 4,200 [2].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for ethylene glycol shows a mixed performance, with a slight decline in prices, while demand remains optimistic due to seasonal consumption expectations [1][2]. Supply Side - Ethylene glycol overall operating load is at 75.13%, an increase of 1.97% compared to the previous period [1]. - The operating load for ethylene glycol produced via oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation is at 77.74%, a decrease of 3.51% from the previous period [1]. Demand Side - Demand is improving, with expectations for a consumption peak in September and October, as downstream polyester and terminal weaving operations show signs of recovery [1]. - The weighted profit for downstream polyester is 19.4 yuan/ton, an increase of 24.4 yuan/ton [1]. - Polyester's weekly capacity utilization rate is at 86.7%, up by 0.1 percentage points, which is near the neutral position over the past five years but higher than the same period last year [1]. - Weekly polyester production is at 152.2 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2 million tons, and is at a high level compared to the same period last year [1]. Inventory Situation - As of August 28, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is 413,200 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous Monday and a decrease of 84,600 tons from the previous Thursday [1]. - The expected total arrival of ethylene glycol in East China next week is 101,700 tons, with a reduction in delivery pace leading to a decrease in inventory [1]. Market Outlook - The main contradiction in the ethylene glycol market is between the expectation of inventory accumulation and the reality of low inventory levels [2]. - There is no significant accumulation pressure observed in August and September, and the recent decline in arrival volumes is at a low level, suggesting limited downward space for ethylene glycol prices [2]. - The market is advised to look for buying opportunities at lower price points [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The current crude oil market shows a weak and volatile pattern. Supply - side factors indicate that the incident at Russian refineries is only a short - term disturbance, while South American production increases and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries strengthen the expectation of a loose supply. Demand - side factors are suppressed by the weakening of China's refining demand, the peak of global seasonal demand, and the slowdown of bio - fuel substitution. Without unexpected production cuts, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes**: On August 11, the SC main contract slightly declined by 0.08% to 489.4 yuan/barrel, while WTI and Brent rebounded by 1.03% and 0.59% respectively. The premium of domestic futures relative to foreign markets narrowed, with the SC - Brent spread narrowing from 1.87 to 1.43 dollars/barrel (a 23.53% decline) and the SC - WTI spread dropping from 4.84 to 4.14 dollars/barrel (a 14.46% decline). The SC near - month contract strengthened, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened to 9.8 yuan/barrel (a 13.95% increase) [2]. - **Supply - side Analysis**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may lead to a local supply contraction, but strong South American production and the supply resilience of sanctioned countries (such as Iran and Venezuela) weaken the geopolitical premium, and medium - term supply pressure still exists [3]. - **Demand - side Analysis**: In early August, China's spot orders for gasoline and diesel decreased by 22.87% month - on - month, and transaction prices declined. UBS expects global oil demand to peak in August and then decline, and the delay of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy reduces the elasticity of diesel substitution demand in the next half - year [4]. - **Inventory - side Analysis**: UBS warns that future inventories may increase, and combined with the recent oil price correction and the spot discount structure, it shows that the market's expectation of inventory accumulation is taking shape. The decline in China's refinery procurement intention further intensifies inventory pressure [5]. - **Price Trend Judgment**: The current crude oil market is in a weak and volatile pattern. Without unexpected production cuts by OPEC+ to hedge, oil prices are expected to remain in a low - level volatile state [6]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **Crude Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, SC futures price slightly decreased, WTI and Brent futures prices increased, and most spot prices changed slightly. Some spreads narrowed, and the SC continuous - consecutive 3 spread widened. The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while the Cushing inventory increased. The U.S. refinery weekly operating rate and crude oil processing volume increased [8]. - **Fuel Oil**: On August 11, compared with August 8, the prices of some fuel oil futures and spot products changed. Some spreads widened, and some Platts prices decreased [9]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - **Supply**: UBS expects oil prices to fall below previous expectations due to strong South American oil production, the supply resilience of sanctioned countries, and the expectation of future inventory increases. UBS also expects OPEC+ to suspend its production adjustment unless there is a larger and continuous unexpected supply disruption [10]. - **Demand**: The attack on Russia's Saratov refinery may affect supply. Global oil demand is expected to peak in August and then decline. Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy is delayed, and China's gasoline and diesel orders decreased in early August, indicating weakening demand [11]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts The report provides multiple charts related to the crude oil and fuel oil industries, including price, production, inventory, and operating rate data, with data sources such as WIND, EIA, and iFinD [12][14][16]

Market Review - On August 6, the Shanghai aluminum futures contract 2509 opened higher and closed at 20,650 yuan/ton, an increase of 90 yuan or 0.44% from the previous trading day [1] Fundamental Summary - In the week ending July 2025, Brazil exported a total of 611,900 tons of bauxite and aluminum concentrate, compared to 444,100 tons in August of the previous year. The average daily shipment increased by 37.77% to 26,600 tons per day from 19,300 tons per day last August [2] - As of August 4, SMM reported a domestic aluminum ingot social inventory of 564,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The increase in smelting and casting volume, combined with the seasonal consumption slowdown, continues to support strong inventory accumulation expectations [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhongyuan Futures noted that on the supply side, domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with a decrease in aluminum water ratio and an increase in casting volume, leading to more market circulation supply. The ongoing inventory accumulation is expected to suppress aluminum prices. On the demand side, the downstream market remains in a seasonal lull, with spot purchases being made as needed, and the current spot premium showing limited upward momentum. Despite the decline in aluminum prices, there is no significant improvement in orders for processing plants [4] - Hualian Futures highlighted that the market is currently observing the impact of the rainy season on transportation in Guinea, with supply remaining ample. The production and operating rates of alumina continue to rise, and new capacity is being put into production, leading to ongoing expectations of market oversupply. Inventory is increasing, and while warehouse receipts have slightly risen, they remain low, with spot prices stable. The Shanghai aluminum market is constrained by the seasonal lull and high prices, with slight inventory increases and limited short-term upward momentum. However, the supply side has very limited production increase potential, providing some price support. The domestic "anti-involution" policy remains stable alongside long-term goals of "promoting consumption and stabilizing growth." Although short-term upward drivers for Shanghai aluminum are limited, the mid-term peak season in September and October supports a bullish outlook. It is recommended to maintain a primary long position, with a reference support level for Shanghai aluminum 2509 at 20,200 yuan/ton [4]