1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent weak and volatile prices of gold and silver are due to the tight overseas liquidity, but this risk has been reduced for the time being [4]. - The release of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations still requires a certain period. The October FOMC meeting signaled the uncertainty of a December rate cut and strengthened the subsequent "rate cut + balance - sheet expansion" monetary policy approach [4]. - In the loose monetary policy cycle, combined with the potential tight physical market, it is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 880 - 966 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 11,001 - 12,366 yuan/kilogram [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 0.63% to 916.38 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 1.58% to 11,381.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold was reported at 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver was reported at 47.86 US dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.17%, and the US dollar index was reported at 100.16 [2]. - After President Trump's speech on resolving the government shutdown, the market's expectation of liquidity tightening was alleviated. The better - than - expected US October ADP employment data eased the recession trading after the release of the ISM manufacturing PMI, and the price of silver outperformed that of gold [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - The accumulation of the TGA account balance due to the US government shutdown is an important reason for the recent tight market liquidity. Trump's speech indicates that liquidity repair will occur soon, and the prices of gold and silver have stabilized [3]. - The number of new ADP employment in the US in October was 42,000, higher than the expected 28,000 and the previous value of - 32,000. The US ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4, higher than the expected 50.8 and the previous value of 50. The overseas recession expectation has eased, and the gold - silver ratio has declined [3]. 3.3 Data Summary - For gold, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 1.25% to 3,990.40 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume decreased by 29.77% to 171,800 lots, the CFTC - reported open interest increased by 2.43% to 528,800 lots, and the inventory remained unchanged at 1,178 tons [6]. - For silver, the closing price of the active COMEX contract increased by 2.06% to 47.86 US dollars/ounce, the trading volume increased by 2.82% to 1,390,900 lots, the open interest decreased by 1.55% to 680,700 lots, and the inventory decreased by 1.42% to 656.17 tons [6].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the U.S. stock market, gold, and Bitcoin experienced gains following the release of better-than-expected ADP employment data, which indicated an increase of 42,000 jobs in October, surpassing the market expectation of around 30,000 [2] - The ADP employment figure, while above expectations, is still below historical averages, suggesting a balanced economic condition that reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, leading to a shift in market sentiment from recession fears to growth optimism [2] - Trump's immediate response to the data, emphasizing the need to reopen the government to restore market confidence, was interpreted as a signal that policy support would be forthcoming, further boosting market sentiment [2] Group 2 - Following the positive ADP data, a member of the Federal Reserve appointed by Trump reiterated that continued interest rate cuts remain reasonable, reinforcing the market's positive outlook [3] - Despite the gains in the stock market, caution remains as the upward trend is moderate and has not fully recovered from earlier losses, with rising dollar and bond yields serving as a warning signal [3] - A report titled "Gold Strategy: The Upcoming Scene" was released, indicating that the recent decline in gold prices may have ended, and outlining two trading plans for gold as the market shows signs of hesitation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge past the 4000-point mark in the A-share market is not expected to be a temporary peak, as the current rally is driven by a diverse range of sectors rather than just large financial institutions [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market's rise to 4000 points is characterized by a lack of enthusiasm compared to previous instances in 2007 and 2015, with current discussions primarily among stock market participants [1]. - The trading volume on the day the market crossed 4000 points was 21,653 billion, a decrease of 1,913 billion from the previous trading day, indicating insufficient momentum from new capital [1]. - The current market experience varies significantly among investors, with some sectors reaching 4800 points while others remain below 4000 [1]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The recent market rally includes contributions from technology (hardware and software), cyclical stocks, military, and pharmaceuticals, indicating a broad-based recovery [2]. - The structure of the current market rally appears relatively stable, suggesting a more sustainable upward trend [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The A-share market's recent performance is viewed as a rebound following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with global markets also reaching new highs due to increased liquidity [4]. - Potential risks include uncertainties regarding the sustainability of the U.S. stock market's rise, the possibility of an AI narrative bubble, and the implications of the interest rate cycle potentially leading to a recession [4]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The Shenzhen Composite Index is close to its previous high, with discussions about whether the current rise represents a fifth wave in a broader market cycle [6]. - The market may face challenges if it does not reach new highs, potentially leading to a prolonged period of volatility [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Under the overseas recession trading, styrene follows the cost downwards. Its cost is weakening and is expected to be mainly bearish, showing an oscillating trend. The investment strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Styrene**: Affected by multiple factors, it is expected to be mainly bearish. The spread between styrene and naphtha is about $252. Non - integrated production profit is still negative. The port inventory has a small decline, but market expectations are poor. Supply increases after maintenance, and overseas demand is decreasing. The inventory shows a mixed situation, with the total port inventory decreasing by 2.67% and the commodity inventory increasing by 4.38%. The basis is stable, and concerns about supply - side raw material reduction due to overseas sanctions exist. The profit situation is not optimistic, and the valuation is neutral due to the significant decline in crude oil prices and the inflow of overseas pure benzene. The macro - policy also has a bearish impact. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Overview of Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Crude Oil**: In the recession trading, it is weakly operating [6]. - **Styrene**: The integrated profit of styrene is declining, and the port inventory continues to decline slightly. The domestic pure benzene production and related indicators show certain trends, and overseas demand drags down the pure benzene price [13][24][36]. - **Pure Benzene**: Overseas demand affects its price. The profit of aniline is gradually recovering, and the European and Asian benzene markets have different price and spread situations. The domestic market atmosphere is weakening, and the inventory is decreasing while imports are declining [36][85][93]. 3.3 Polymer Demand Overview - **Styrene Downstream - ABS**: The domestic demand is okay, but the supply is strong. The inventory, production capacity utilization rate, and profit indicators show certain trends [51]. - **Styrene Downstream - PS**: The inventory is rising, and the profit is declining [64]. - **Styrene Downstream - EPS**: The inventory is accumulating [75]. - **Pure Benzene - Aniline**: The profit is gradually recovering [85]. - **Phenol**: The port inventory is further declining [96]. - **Adipic Acid**: The production load is declining [107]. - **Caprolactam**: The production is stable, but the price is falling [118]. - **Household Appliances**: The export demand is decreasing year - on - year [128].

Asset Performance - The 10Y US Treasury yield decreased by 3.0 basis points to 4.02%[3] - The S&P 500 index rose by 1.70% to 6664.01[3] - Gold prices increased by 6.30% to $4224.75[3] Political and Economic Factors - US-China trade tensions remain uncertain, with a new round of negotiations planned for late October[4] - The US government shutdown is expected to last until November, potentially causing a GDP loss of $15 billion per week[11] - The US fiscal deficit for FY2025 is projected to decrease to 5.9%, aided by tariff revenues of $195 billion, a 153% increase from FY2024[13][18] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a resurgence of recession trades due to ongoing US-China tensions and the government shutdown[5][15] - Japan's political instability could impact global markets, particularly affecting TACO trades[14] Key Economic Indicators - Eurozone exports fell by 4.7% year-on-year in August, while imports decreased by 3.8%[22] - Japan's industrial production index was revised down to -1.5% month-on-month, indicating a slowdown[26]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market was affected by sudden tariff disturbances over the weekend, with risks focused on liquidity and recession themes. If the optimistic scenario unfolds, aluminum prices are likely to find buying points on pullbacks; if a recession occurs, there may be significant downward pressure on aluminum profit margins. In the long - term, the report remains bullish on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - The alumina market's center continues to move downward, with valuation and drivers in continuous game. Short - term spot prices are weak, and there is still a risk of further decline [4]. Summaries by Directory Aluminum - **Market Performance**: After the holiday, Shanghai aluminum initially strengthened with other non - ferrous metals but dropped at night on Friday due to Sino - US tariff issues. The decline was relatively mild. Market sentiment on Monday may further pull down prices, and the long - term trend remains bullish [3]. - **Fundamental Indicators**: The SMM East China and South China spot discounts widened. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 47,000 tons to 634,000 tons during the National Day holiday. Downstream production and processing profits generally weakened [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The overall aluminum processing start - up rate dropped to 62.5% during the National Day holiday. Different downstream sectors showed different performances, with some facing challenges such as weak orders, financial pressure, and logistical constraints [3]. Alumina - **Market Trend**: After the holiday and on Friday night, alumina's performance was weak, and its center continued to move down, currently testing the 2800 support level. The short - term spot market remains weak [4]. - **Price and Inventory**: The spot price continued to decline. The all - caliber social inventory of alumina increased by 105,000 tons to 3.902 million tons as of October 9 [4][51]. Trading - **Price Spreads**: The A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The monthly spread of Shanghai aluminum flattened [9][10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract slightly declined, and the trading volume slightly increased. The open interest of the alumina main contract slightly increased and is at a historical high, and the trading volume also slightly increased [13]. - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina continued to fall and is at a historical low [18]. Inventory - **Bauxite**: Port inventory and inventory days decreased. The inventory of 43 sample enterprises increased by 420,000 tons in September. The shipping volume and floating inventory from Guinea increased, while those from Australia decreased. The outbound volume was divided, and the inbound volume declined [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national inventory continued to increase. As of October 9, the national alumina inventory was 3.902 million tons, an increase of 105,000 tons from the previous week [38][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The inventory continued to accumulate. As of October 9, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons to 634,000 tons [52]. - **Processed Products**: The spot and in - plant inventories of aluminum rods were divided. The raw material and finished product inventory ratios of aluminum profiles and plate - strip foil were also divided [58][61]. Production - **Bauxite**: Domestic bauxite supply was generally stable. In September, the production of domestic bauxite decreased, with different trends in different provinces [64][66]. - **Alumina**: The capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of October 10, the total operating capacity of alumina was 98.2 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons from the previous week. The weekly production of domestic metallurgical alumina was 1.863 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [70]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The operating capacity remained at a high level. As of October 9, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,700 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week. The proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: The production of recycled aluminum rods increased, the production of aluminum rods decreased slightly, and the production of aluminum plate - strip foil decreased slightly. The start - up rate of leading downstream aluminum enterprises decreased slightly to 62.5% [76][78]. Profit - **Alumina**: The smelting profit declined marginally. The profit of metallurgical alumina was 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan were stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better [91]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and trade policy uncertainties interfered with market expectations [103]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [104]. Consumption - **Import and Export Profits and Losses**: The import losses of alumina and Shanghai aluminum narrowed. In August 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly by 8,000 tons month - on - month. The export profits and losses of aluminum processed products were divided [112][114][117]. - **Consumption Volume**: The commercial housing transaction area declined, and the automobile production increased month - on - month [120].

Group 1 - The core debate in the market revolves around whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts signify a "rate cut trade" indicating a soft landing for the U.S. economy, or a "recession trade" suggesting significant risks for equities [2][3][7] - Current economic indicators in the U.S. are weak but not at recession levels, with key metrics remaining relatively high compared to historical recession periods [8][11][14] - The employment market's traditional signaling of recession risks may be diminishing due to factors such as AI-driven investment and an aging population, which alters the relationship between employment, income, and consumption [17][20] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's proactive measures have reduced the likelihood of a financial crisis, thereby increasing the difficulty of a recession occurring in the U.S. [4][25] - Historical responses to financial crises, such as the rapid implementation of quantitative easing during the 2019 monetary crisis and the swift actions following the Silicon Valley Bank collapse, illustrate the Fed's commitment to maintaining economic stability [5][25] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by weak economic performance but not a recession, is favorable for both U.S. equities and bonds in the medium term [6][26][27]

Core Viewpoint - The recent "Super Central Bank Week" concluded with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points, prompting other central banks to follow suit, leading to a recalibration of asset pricing and new trading logic in the market [1] Market Performance - Global stock markets exhibited mixed results, with U.S. stocks initially declining but later reaching new highs, while A-shares experienced a pullback after a rise [1] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) saw a slight increase, while the volatility index (VIX) rose, indicating market uncertainty [1] - U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar index initially fell but later rebounded, showcasing volatility in non-U.S. currencies [1] Commodity Market Trends - Commodity prices displayed divergence, with gold experiencing high volatility, copper prices dropping significantly, and oil prices remaining weak, leading to a weekly decline in the CRB index [1] - In the domestic market, a trend against "involution" boosted black commodities, particularly coking coal and coke, while glass and soda ash also saw gains [1] - The domestic bond market showed mixed results, with stock indices reflecting varied performances [1] Commodity Sector Analysis - The Wind Commodity Index reported a weekly change of -0.19%, with 4 out of 10 sectors gaining and 6 sectors declining, indicating a pattern of strength domestically but weakness externally [1] - Precious metals faced a correction, and the significant drop in non-ferrous metals negatively impacted overall commodity performance, while coal, steel, and non-metallic building materials sectors surged [1] - Agricultural products led the decline among commodity sectors [1] Future Outlook - The resumption of the interest rate cut process is expected to shift global macro trading logic, with the Fed's rate cut likely to influence commodity prices through various channels [1] - Generally, rate cuts enhance the attractiveness of gold and other commodities, as a weaker dollar supports commodity prices and liquidity injections boost expectations [1] - The phenomenon of "buying the expectation, selling the fact" is noted, with gold experiencing a rise followed by a pullback post-rate cut, suggesting that future commodity trends may diverge [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with a high probability of a 25 basis point cut, which is expected to influence global markets significantly [2][3][34] - The article emphasizes that the Federal Reserve's decisions impact not only the U.S. market but also global assets including U.S. stocks, bonds, A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, and commodities like gold [5][6] Group 2 - The article outlines three potential scenarios for the interest rate cut: no cut, a 25 basis point cut, and a 50 basis point cut, detailing the expected market reactions for each scenario [7][9][10] - In the case of a 25 basis point cut, it is viewed as beneficial for risk assets, while a 50 basis point cut could raise concerns about a potential recession, depending on market confidence in the U.S. economy [9][34] - Historical data shows that during previous significant rate cuts, equity markets generally experienced declines, while fixed income assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold tended to perform well [29][30][31] Group 3 - The article provides a summary of past Federal Reserve rate cut cycles, highlighting the economic conditions and market responses during those periods, indicating a consistent pattern of equity declines amid aggressive rate cuts [14][21][29] - It notes that during the 2001-2003 and 2007-2008 rate cut cycles, equity markets faced significant downturns, while fixed income and gold assets showed resilience [18][22][28] - The analysis suggests that the current market sentiment remains optimistic about the U.S. economy, with a 25 basis point cut being the most likely outcome, which could support risk assets like A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [34]

Investment Highlights - Precious metals: Gold has reached a new historical high, with continued recommendations for investment. Recent weak economic data from the US has led to a decline in the dollar index, and gold is poised for an upward trend as it prepares for the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting. Even if the meeting outcomes align with expectations, there is no need to rush to take profits, as the market is likely shifting from recession trading to stagflation trading, indicating a potential slow bull market for gold [2][3] - Copper: If interest rate cuts can facilitate a soft landing, copper prices may rise. LME copper has surpassed $10,000. Despite a weakening US economy, the market appears to be pricing in future stagflation or soft landing scenarios, leading to an upward trend in copper prices. With the domestic consumption peak approaching and downstream operating rates expected to improve, copper prices are likely to rise [2][3] - Aluminum: Continued optimism for rising aluminum prices. Shanghai aluminum prices have increased, driven by significant improvements in downstream operating rates, which have risen to 62.1%. Although the real estate sector remains sluggish, demand from the renewable energy sector is providing effective support. The mid-term impact of US aluminum tariffs is expected to be limited, and the long-term outlook for electrolytic aluminum remains positive [3] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt intermediates continue to rise, with attention on the dynamics of electrolytic cobalt and policy changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Cobalt product prices have increased, with weekly growth rates of 4.55% for cobalt sulfate and 2.06% for electrolytic cobalt. The market anticipates further supply constraints due to upcoming policy changes in the DRC, which could drive prices higher [3] - Tin: Price increases driven by interest rate cut expectations and supply shortages. Tin prices rose by 2.70%, with operating rates for refined tin in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces dropping to 28.48%. Supply constraints are expected to persist due to raw material shortages and seasonal maintenance [4] - Lithium: Prices under pressure due to the announcement of a resumption plan at the Jiangxi mine. Lithium prices have declined, primarily due to market expectations surrounding the resumption of production. However, supply growth is expected to slow, and demand from the energy storage sector remains strong, indicating a potential improvement in the carbonated lithium supply-demand balance [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt, Zhongtung High-tech, Zhangyuan Tungsten, Hunan Gold, Huayu Mining, Shanjin International, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Shenhuo Co., and Yun Aluminum [5]