1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, central bank policies, and supply - demand relationships. Geopolitical tensions, especially the situation in the Middle East, have a significant impact on the prices of commodities like precious metals, energy, and some chemicals. Central bank policies, such as potential interest rate cuts by the Fed, also influence market expectations. Supply - demand imbalances in different industries drive price trends, with some industries facing supply shortages or excess, and demand either growing or remaining weak [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: The international gold price denominated in London Gold fell 4.39% to $5087 per ounce, and the international silver price denominated in London Silver dropped 8.18% to $81.98 per ounce [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Tensions in the Middle East, changes in Fed interest - rate cut expectations, and inventory changes in different regions and ETFs. For example, domestic gold inflow was 2.1 tons, and some inventories decreased, while India's silver import demand continued to improve [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in gold and reduce long positions in silver and wait and see [1]. Base Metals Copper - **Market Performance**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations due to rising oil prices, supply - side copper ore shortage but high refined copper production, and weak demand in the off - season [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - bound trading strategy in the short term [2]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract decreased by 2.29% to 23905 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in the weekly aluminum product start - up rate on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly due to geopolitical conflicts and improving downstream demand [2]. Alumina - **Market Performance**: The closing price of the alumina main contract increased by 1.23% to 2807 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in operating capacity on the supply side and high - load production of electrolytic aluminum plants on the demand side [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate strongly in the short term, but new production capacity may suppress the price in the future [2][3]. Zinc and Lead - **Market Performance**: On March 3, the zinc and lead main contracts closed at 24370 yuan/ton and 16840 yuan/ton respectively, with price drops [3]. - **Fundamentals**: For zinc, large accumulation of social inventory, slow resumption of downstream enterprises, but low overseas LME inventory provides some support; for lead, increasing social inventory, some refineries delaying resumption due to high costs, and weak spot trading [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hedge zinc at high prices and trade lead within a range [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 8205 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.20% from the previous trading day [3]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of open furnaces on the supply side, slight inventory accumulation, and recovery in demand from downstream industries such as polysilicon and organic silicon [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate between 8200 - 8600 yuan. Consider short - selling lightly at high prices if the large - scale production cut is short - lived [3]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: LC2605 closed at 150,860 yuan/ton, with a limit - down [3]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate, an increase in production, and changes in demand and inventory. For example, SMM expects a 8.7% increase in March production compared to January [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price may oscillate with high volatility around 140,000 - 150,000 yuan in the short term. Wait and see the new - energy vehicle consumption in March to judge the future price trend [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The main 05 contract closed at 43700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.74% from the previous trading day [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Stable weekly production, an increase in industry inventory, and a recovery in downstream production scheduling [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the price to oscillate weakly between 43000 - 53000 yuan in the short term [4]. Tin - **Market Performance**: Tin prices dropped significantly [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Delayed interest - rate cut expectations and a tight supply of tin ore, with active trading at lower prices [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait for a buying opportunity after the implied volatility decreases [4]. Black Industry Rebar - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Seasonal inventory accumulation, a significant difference in supply - demand between building materials and hot - rolled coils, and relatively low rebar futures valuation [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in rebar and wait and see. The reference range for RB05 is 3040 - 3100 yuan [5]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 746.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil, a decrease in arrivals, and low port inventory [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see. The reference range for I05 is 730 - 760 yuan [5]. Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1117 yuan/ton, up 32.5 yuan from the previous night - session closing price [5]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in molten iron production, the implementation of the first round of coke price increase, and high - level port clearance [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in coking coal and wait and see. The reference range for JM05 is 1090 - 1150 yuan [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: CBOT soybeans rose overnight [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A丰产 expectation in South America, strong US soybean crushing and export expectations [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: US soybeans are strong. Pay attention to US soybean exports and South American production realization. The domestic market may oscillate strongly in the short term but lacks upward momentum in the medium term [6]. Corn - **Market Performance**: Corn futures prices fell, while spot prices continued to rise [6]. - **Fundamentals**: More than 60% of grain sales completed, low port and downstream inventory, and losses in downstream industries [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate strongly due to limited supply and downstream restocking [6]. Edible Oils - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, driven by the increase in crude oil prices [6]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in February production and exports in Malaysia, and an expected decrease in end - February inventory [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: The edible oil market is in a weak cycle but may rebound in the short term due to rising crude oil prices. Pay attention to crude oil prices and production in the producing areas [6]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: ICE US cotton futures prices continued to fall, while Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly [6]. - **Fundamentals**: Smooth cotton sowing in Brazil, stable domestic cotton prices, and an increase in cotton yarn prices [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy at low prices. The reference price range is 15000 - 15600 yuan/ton [6]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: Egg futures prices were weak, and spot prices slightly decreased [6]. - **Fundamentals**: It is the traditional off - season for egg demand, and supply is sufficient [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Pigs - **Market Performance**: Pig futures prices were weak, and spot prices continued to fall [6]. - **Fundamentals**: An increase in the number of pigs for slaughter after the Spring Festival and a seasonal off - season for demand [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect the futures price to oscillate weakly [6]. Chemicals LLDPE - **Market Performance**: The main LLDPE contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [7]. - **Fundamentals**: No new device production in the first half of the year, a slowdown in domestic supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [7]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 contract closed at 4939 yuan/ton, up 2.4% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Affected by rising oil prices, high social inventory, and weak demand [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to balanced supply and weak demand and low valuation [7]. PTA - **Market Performance**: PXCFR China price was $1019/ton, and PTA East China spot price was 5525 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: High - level supply of PX, restart of some PTA devices, and PTA inventory accumulation [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Keep waiting and see in the PTA inventory - accumulation pattern [7]. Glass - **Market Performance**: The fg05 contract closed at 1053 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in supply, weak demand, and high inventory [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy glass and sell soda ash [7]. PP - **Market Performance**: The main PP contract continued to rise significantly. The basis strengthened, and market trading was good [8]. - **Fundamentals**: A decrease in new device production in the short term, a reduction in supply pressure, and an improvement in downstream demand [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, with the upside limited by the import window. Short at high prices in the medium term [8]. MEG - **Market Performance**: The East China spot price of MEG was 3894 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Potential supply shortages due to geopolitical conflicts, and expected inventory reduction in March [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions [8]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: SC crude oil had three consecutive daily limit - up, and the delivery cost had a high premium compared to Brent [8]. - **Fundamentals**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East, especially the situation in Iran, may affect the supply of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Participate in trading through options to control risks [8]. Styrene - **Market Performance**: The EB main contract continued to rise significantly. The market trading atmosphere was good [9]. - **Fundamentals**: An improvement in the pure - benzene supply - demand pattern, inventory reduction of styrene, and an improvement in downstream start - up rate but increased losses [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate strongly in the short term, following the cost (crude oil) fluctuations. Go long on styrene at low prices in the second quarter [9]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 contract closed at 1219 yuan/ton, up 2.2% [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Rising prices due to increased overseas costs, large supply, and inventory accumulation [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see due to increased supply and weak demand and low valuation [9].

期货研究报告 2026年03月02日 周报 关注因素：美国最新经济数据、地缘政治变动、节后需求复苏 | | 单位 | 本周最新 | 上周同期 | 周度环比 | 周度环比 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 变化量 | 变化率 | | | 电解铜价格（≥99.95%）：上海 | 元/吨 | 101970 | 100275 | 1695 | 1.69% | 周度 | | 电解铜升贴水（≥99.95%）：上海 | 元/吨 | -250 | -5 | -245 | -4900.00% | 周度 | | 干净铜精矿远期现货综合指数（TC计） | 美元/干吨 | -51.06 | -51.17 | 0.11 | 0.21% | 周度 | | 无氧铜杆价格 | 元/吨 | 103090 | 101270 | 1820 | 1.80% | 周度 | | LME铜库存 | 吨 | 253700 | 241825 | 11875 | 4.91% | 周度 | | SHFE铜库存 | 吨 | 391529 | 272475 | 119054 | ...

研究报告 – 烧碱报告 2026 年 2 月 金融研究院 研究报告-烧碱月报 报告日期 2026 年 2 月 27 日 范阿骄 : F3054801 投资咨询证号： Z0016954 节后需求边际改善， 烧碱市场企稳向好 从业资格号 2026 年 2 月，烧碱市场结束 1 月单边下行态势， 进入供需博弈下低位企稳、基差修复 的震荡阶段。 核心逻辑从高供应 + 高库存 + 弱需求的三重压力， 转向 库存去化与节后需求复苏的博弈。 供给端，行业产能利用率维持高位，但边际压力较 1 月缓解，部分企业响应库存压力小幅降负，产量呈现 小幅波动回落特征，以氯补碱 模式仍支撑企业维持 较高生产负荷。需求端，氧化铝行业高开工提供核心 需求底盘，非铝下游随节后复工呈现季节性复苏，华 东印染厂开机率逐步回升，整体需求边际改善。 3 月市场有望延续震荡回升态势，核心看点在于需求 复苏强度与库存去化节奏。策略上建议以逢低做多为 主，关注基差修复机会，同时警惕下游开工不及预 期、新增产能集中投放等潜在风险。 一、市场回顾：供需博弈下低位企稳，基差修复信号初现 2026 年 2 月烧碱市场延续 1 月弱势格局，但在成本支撑与边际需求改善 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 沪胶期价有望偏强上行 宝城期货 陈栋 得益于全球天然橡胶供应季节性收缩、国内需求复工预期以及成本端支撑等利多因素共振驱动，节后 归来首日，国内沪胶期货 2605 合约呈现震荡上行的走势，期价大幅收涨 3.90%至 17030 元吨，创去年 3 月以来新高。基于短期偏多氛围支撑，预计后市国内沪胶期货或维持震荡偏强的走势。 胶市供应处在年内偏低水平 供应端收紧是本轮沪胶上涨行情的核心支撑。当前全球天然橡胶进入季节性低产周期，东南亚主产国 泰国、印尼、马来西亚处于减产季节，胶水产出偏少、原料价格持续坚挺。泰国前期降雨影响原料产出， 叠加局部扰动因素，产量同比下降，出口量阶段性收缩，国际市场供应偏紧格局进一步确认。据天然橡胶 生产国协会（ANRPC）最新发布的 1 月报告显示，2025 年 12 月天胶生产国协会成员国合计产胶量达 112.78 万吨，月环比小幅减少 4.36 万吨，同比小幅减少 16.44 万吨，降幅达 12.72%。2025 年 1-12 月天胶生产国 协会成员国合计产胶量达 1152.02 万吨，较去年同期的 1163.27 ...

市场快讯---"两会"期间钢厂生产管 控，短期利多盘面，中期看需求复苏。 2026年2月25日 Ø 2026年两会开幕时间为2026年3月4日。 Ø 华北部分钢企已接到通知，要求3月4日一3月11日执行 阶段性减排管控，高炉负荷按不低于30%比例自主减排， 并由企业结合自身装备、生产与原料库存情况，制定专 项减排执行方案，按要求上报备案。本次管控以自主减 排、错峰生产为原则，聚焦高炉等重点排放工序，通过 合理调控炉况、优化检修计划、调整排产节奏等方式落 实减排目标，保障会议期间空气质量稳定。 Ø 影响：通知将造成区域内粗钢供给阶段性收缩，实际供 给减量或低于市场预期。市场可能提前消化减排预期， 加上节后首个交易日螺卷深跌，预计短期盘面较大幅度 反弹。中期仍关注终端需求复苏。若两会期间下游工地 开工、制造业采购未达预期，库存去化缓慢，将抵消供 给收缩的利好，导致价格冲高回落。 Ø 策略：早班车提示的逢低布局多单策略，继续持有，止 数据来源：文华财经 损线不断上移。 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格 F3066027 交易咨询：Z0011402 联系电话（010）56711796 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses macroeconomic narratives impacting various sectors, particularly focusing on demand recovery, currency dynamics, interest rate expectations, geopolitical risks, and the implications of artificial intelligence (AI) on market performance. Key Points Demand Recovery Narrative - Demand expectations are stable, with no signs of a turning point anticipated until 2026; if a turning point were to be identified, it would be considered to have occurred in 2022 or 2023 [1][2] Dollar Credit Loss - The dollar is entering an observation period, with no other currency currently presenting a strong appreciation narrative; the narrative surrounding the dollar's depreciation is expected to weaken in its influence on other assets [1][2] Interest Rate Narrative - The market has not priced in any interest rate cuts for January, with expectations indicating that no cuts will occur in March; future developments will depend on the testimony of Waller, who has previously expressed hawkish views during the Obama administration and dovish views during the Trump administration; if Waller does not exhibit hawkish tendencies in his upcoming testimony, the market may begin to price in the possibility of interest rate cuts [1][2] Geopolitical Narrative - There have been no fundamental changes in geopolitical risks; oil and precious metals continue to be supported by ongoing tensions, particularly regarding Trump's potential actions towards Iran [2][3] AI Narrative - There is a belief that 2023 will be a year for validating AI performance; if AI companies fail to meet market expectations, they may face significant pressure; however, proponents of AI believe the narrative surrounding AI is substantial and transformative [3]

BMO资本市场分析师法迪·沙蒙今日将联合包裹股票评级下调至"与大盘持平"，目标价96美元。"需求复 苏仍难以实现，尤其是在重要的B2B领域。美国贸易政策的转变，包括取消小额豁免，进一步加剧了宏 观挑战。"与此同时，联合包裹的降本努力进展慢于预期。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 BMO资本市场分析师法迪·沙蒙今日将联合包裹股票评级下调至"与大盘持平"，目标价96美元。"需求复 苏仍难以实现，尤其是在重要的B2B领域。美国贸易政策的转变，包括取消小额豁免，进一步加剧了宏 观挑战。"与此同时，联合包裹的降本努力进展慢于预期。 责任编辑：张俊 SF065 ...

Group 1 - The overall market sentiment is weak, with expectations for steel prices to decline as demand remains subdued and winter storage is nearly complete [4][6][17] - Nationally, 30 provinces have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth [4][15] - Excavator sales in January 2026 reached 18,708 units, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, indicating strong demand in the construction sector [4][15] Group 2 - The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 48.12%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week, but an increase of 44.85 percentage points year-on-year [5][16] - Total inventory of five major steel products increased by 4.6% week-on-week to 13.38 million tons, while weekly consumption decreased by 5.1% [5][16] - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons week-on-week to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory rising by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons [6][17] Group 3 - Hot-rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons [7][18] - The iron ore transaction volume on February 9 was 638,000 tons, a decrease of 19.4% week-on-week, reflecting a slowdown in market activity as the Spring Festival approaches [4][15] - The production of iron alloys remains under pressure, with prices fluctuating and demand from steel mills not meeting expectations [9][20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market has been affected by macro factors such as the Fed's interest rate decision, the nomination of the next Fed chair, and changes in the US dollar index. There was a panic sell - off in non - ferrous metals, but short - term panic has been released. If precious metals stop falling or base metals stabilize, there may be opportunities to go long on copper, aluminum, tin, and nickel. In the medium term, due to the expected weak US dollar and supply - side disturbances, copper, aluminum, and tin are expected to maintain a volatile and upward trend. In the long term, the potential incremental stimulus policies in China and supply - related issues still support the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin [1]. - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have their own characteristics. For example, copper prices have dropped significantly due to the rebound of the US dollar index, but the medium - and long - term supply - demand outlook is positive; alumina prices are expected to fluctuate as the expectation of production cuts competes with the reality of oversupply; aluminum prices have corrected significantly due to fluctuating capital sentiment, but are expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [1][2][7]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Copper - **Current situation**: In December 2025, China's electrolytic copper production was 1155300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14800 tons and a year - on - year increase of 11.68%. On February 2, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount of - 160 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan/ton. The social copper inventory was 335900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5500 tons. The spot TC of 25% copper concentrate was - 50.2 dollars/dry ton, unchanged from the previous period [7]. - **Logic**: Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair led to a rapid rise in the US dollar index and a large adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is increasingly disturbed, and the spot TC of copper concentrate continues to decline. The long - term processing fee for copper mines in 2026 is at a record low, strengthening the expectation of a contraction in refined copper supply. Terminal demand is weak during the off - season, but the long - term supply - demand is expected to be tight [8]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term [8]. Alumina - **Current situation**: On January 29, 2026, the national weighted index of alumina spot was 2610.4 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the alumina warehouse receipts were 161521 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2402 tons [8][9]. - **Logic**: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. The current average spot price is much lower than at the end of last year, and high - cost inland production capacity faces losses, leading to an intensified expectation of supply contraction. However, the supply contraction is insufficient in reality, and the prices of raw materials such as bauxite and caustic soda are also weak, weakening the price support. The futures price is stronger than the spot price, but there is also pressure above [9]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile [9]. Aluminum - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the average spot price of domestic electrolytic aluminum was 23723 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 922 yuan/ton; the spot premium was - 220 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The inventory of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 829000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29000 tons; the inventory of aluminum rods was 267000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14000 tons. The warehouse receipts of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 150459 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5388 tons [10][12][13]. - **Logic**: The US January interest rate meeting was neutral, and Trump's nomination of Warsh as the next Fed chair reduced short - term risk appetite, but the macro expectation is expected to remain positive. The domestic production capacity is stable, and the smelting profit is high. Overseas, the Indonesian project is in line with expectations, but there are still constraints on medium - term supply expansion. The weekly initial operating rate has decreased, and high prices suppress demand. The exchange's aluminum ingot delivery has expanded, and the weekly social inventory has continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term, and the price center is expected to rise in the medium - term [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the price of ADC12 was 23300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 400 yuan/ton [14]. - **Logic**: The price of scrap aluminum follows the price of aluminum ingots, and the supply is tight in the short - term, providing strong cost support. Some manufacturers have started the Spring Festival holiday in advance, and the medium - term tax return policy and tax transfer may still constrain supply. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones continues, but the subsidy has decreased. High prices suppress downstream demand in the short - term, and the inventory has accumulated [15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward in the short - to medium - term [15]. Zinc - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the premium of Shanghai 0 zinc to the main contract was 15 yuan/ton, Guangdong 0 zinc was - 15 yuan/ton, and Tianjin 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton. As of February 2, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places was 111200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3800 tons [16]. - **Logic**: The Fed's January interest rate decision was in line with expectations, but Trump's nomination of the next Fed chair led to a change in the macro expectation. The decline in zinc ore processing fees has slowed down, but the supply of zinc ore is still tight in the short - term, and the smelter's profit has declined. The domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and the demand expectation is average [17]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be volatile in the short - term and may decline in the long - term [17]. Lead - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton (a decrease of 25 yuan/ton), and the price difference between primary and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton (unchanged). The price of 1 lead ingots was 16575 - 16675 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16625 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The spot premium of Henan lead ingots was - 225 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 35 yuan/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 39000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60 tons; the latest warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead were 29418 tons, unchanged from the previous period [19]. - **Logic**: The spot premium has decreased, and the price difference between primary and secondary lead has remained stable. The price of waste batteries has decreased slightly, and the profit of secondary lead smelting has narrowed, resulting in a slight decrease in production. The orders for electric bicycles have weakened slightly, while the orders for automobile batteries have improved. The operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has declined from the previous high, but it is still at a relatively high level compared to the same period in previous years [19]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile [19]. Nickel - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai nickel were 46574 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 302 tons; the LME nickel inventory was 285528 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 756 tons. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [20]. - **Logic**: The supply of nickel is still under pressure as the domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in December, and the production of MIHP, ferronickel, and nickel ice in Indonesia remained high. The demand has entered the traditional off - season. The stainless steel production has increased slightly due to profit repair, but the electroplating and alloy sectors are expected to decline. Indonesia plans to revise the domestic trade pricing method of nickel ore and lower the nickel ore quota in 2026, which has significantly adjusted the market's cost and balance expectations [20]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [20]. Stainless Steel - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the inventory of stainless steel futures warehouse receipts was 43758 tons, a month - on - month increase of 239 tons. The spot price of Foshan Hongwang 304 was at a premium of 830 yuan/ton to the stainless steel main contract. The price of high - nickel iron in the Chinese market was 1045 - 1075 yuan/nickel (including tax at the factory), unchanged from the 30th [21]. - **Logic**: The price of nickel iron has recovered, and the cost of stainless steel still has some support. The stainless steel production decreased in December, and the production schedule in January may increase slightly due to profit repair, but the terminal demand remains cautious. The social inventory has slightly accumulated, and there may still be pressure on inventory during the off - season [21]. - **Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile and upward, and continuous tracking of Indonesia's policy changes is needed [22]. Tin - **Current situation**: On February 2, 2026, the LME tin warehouse receipt inventory remained unchanged at 7095 tons, the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 30 tons to 8524 tons, and the Shanghai tin positions decreased by 3262 lots to 92297 lots. The average spot price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 1 tin ingots was 428550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10150 yuan/ton [22]. - **Logic**: The supply of tin is the key factor affecting the price. The supply problem in Wa State may be alleviated, but the supply in Indonesia is still restricted in the short - term, and the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo exacerbates supply concerns. In the future, the supply of tin ore is tightening, and the production of refined tin is difficult to increase. The processing fee of tin concentrate has increased, reflecting the increased financial pressure of some smelters. The demand for tin in the semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries continues to rise, and the inventory needs to be rebuilt [22]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and upward in the medium - and long - term, but short - term price fluctuations need to be watched out for [23]. Market Monitoring - On February 2, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities, the specialty index (including the commodity 20 - index and the industrial products index), and the sector index (non - ferrous metals index) all showed different degrees of decline. The non - ferrous metals index had a daily decline of - 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of - 4.88%, and a 1 - month increase of + 0.88% and the same increase since the beginning of the year [150][152].

期货日报网讯(记者肖佳煊)中国1月RatingDog制造业PMI回升至50.3，制造业维持扩张态势。 库存方面，采购库存连续第二个月上升，企业为满足生产需求补充原材料；产成品库存则连续第三个月 下降，主要因订单发货消耗了存货。价格方面，在成本压力持续积累下，制造业企业自2024年11月以来 首次上调出厂价格，出口收费同步上升，且调价速度为近一年半最快，部分企业开始尝试将成本压力向 客户传导。原材料价格连续第七个月上涨，1月涨幅为2025年9月以来最快，金属类价格上升尤为明显， 本轮贵金属驱动的大宗商品牛市行情延续，且暂未见顶。 整体看，1月制造业扩张态势得以延续，内外需边际回暖，成本向价格的传导初现，就业与采购活动小 幅改善。然而商业信心下滑，制造业整体增长动能仍属微弱，复苏基础尚不牢固。未来数月，若成本压 力持续而需求复苏力度有限，企业盈利空间仍将承压，制造业可能延续低增速扩张格局。政策层面需关 注稳需求与降成本之间的平衡，财政发力支撑'两重两新'政策的延续，或在一定程度上巩固制造业的修 复势头。" 从分项指标看，从业人员分项的改善是驱动本月PMI扩张的主要因素，就业改善主要源于新订单增加及 生产需求的上升 ...