Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: March 10, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current market trading core has shifted from its own fundamentals to the cost and sentiment logic driven by geopolitics, with the weight of fundamental factors decreasing periodically [6]. - The escalating situation in the Strait of Hormuz and high oil prices provide cost - side support for the polyolefin market. The expected reduction in raw material imports and unexpected device maintenance give polyolefin prices upward momentum in the short - term [6]. - Due to frequent geopolitical risks and volatile energy prices, polyolefins will operate at a high level under strong cost support [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Affected by the rise in crude oil prices, plastics and PP were locked at the daily limit after opening. L2605 closed at 7,944 yuan/ton, up 449 yuan/ton (5.99%), with a trading volume of 498,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 1,367 lots to 410,391 lots. PP2605 closed at 8,034 yuan/ton, up 454 yuan (5.99%), with a decrease in open interest of 13,379 lots to 480,000 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - On March 9, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 25,000 tons (3.05%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 865,000 tons [7]. - PE market prices continued to rise. LLDPE prices in North China were 9,200 - 10,000 yuan/ton, in East China were 9,500 - 10,080 yuan/ton, and in South China were 9,700 - 10,200 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 9,500 - 10,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Downstream factories were more cautious in purchasing, and the overall market trading volume decreased [7]. - After PP futures opened, they were locked at the daily limit. The spot market was bullish, and downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted due to supply - side reduction expectations. However, due to price fluctuations and the daily limit, some producers raised prices, others suspended sales, and most traders suspended quoting. Downstream buyers were mostly cautious, and the market trading was average [7][8]. 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical risks have intensified, leading to an increase in energy valuations and rising shipping costs, which strengthen the cost - side support and drive up the prices of the black building materials sector. However, the current situation in the off - season is lackluster. There are still inventory contradictions in steel, high inventory pressure in iron ore is difficult to alleviate, Mongolian coal imports remain high, the supply - demand surplus in the glass and soda ash market remains unchanged, and the fundamentals of alloys lack support. The expectation for the peak season is still cautious, causing prices to fall after a short - term increase [1]. - With many disturbances such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts, if the geopolitical conflicts continue, the futures prices will still have an upward drive. But as it is still the off - season, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectation is cautious. Once the external disturbances weaken, there will be a risk of price correction at high levels. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and the realization of peak - season demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have decreased month - on - month, while arrivals have significantly increased. The high inventory pressure is difficult to ease in the short term. With the Two Sessions and geopolitical disturbances, there are uncertainties in the macro environment. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large. It is expected to oscillate weakly [1][7][8]. - **Scrap Steel**: The supply - demand pattern of the scrap steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovering slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals provide some support for prices. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the rebound in finished - product prices and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [1][9]. 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, there are disturbances in hot metal production, but there is still long - term rigid demand support for coke. After the first round of spot price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. If geopolitical conflicts continue, it may be strong following energy prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][10]. - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but the high imports of Mongolian coal put pressure on the fundamentals. Spot prices are expected to oscillate. The current futures prices are affected by many factors such as domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflicts continue, it may follow the upward trend of crude oil prices; if the conflicts ease, it is expected to oscillate [2][11]. 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese market has strong supply and weak demand, with insufficient fundamental support. There are resistance in cost - side transmission, and high upstream inventory leads to significant selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. When futures prices rise above the cost line, the risk of correction should be guarded against [2][15]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand drive in the ferrosilicon market is limited. The continuous repair of industry profits may accelerate the resumption of production by manufacturers, weakening the supply - demand relationship. When the futures valuation recovers above the cost line, the risk of high - level correction should be vigilant [2][16]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of middle and downstream are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is in surplus. If there is no obvious improvement in demand after the Lantern Festival, high inventories will always suppress prices [2][5][12]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will intensify, the price center will decline, and capacity will be reduced [2][5][14]. 3.5 Other Information - **Steel**: The cost support is strong, and the futures market is firm. Spot market transactions have warmed up, but the overall demand is still at a low level. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamental contradiction needs time to ease. The futures market has an upward drive but is limited. Attention should be paid to peak - season demand [7]. - **Commodity Index**: On March 9, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity index, commodity 20 index, industrial product index), and plate index (such as the steel industry chain index) of CITIC Futures all had different degrees of increase or decline. For example, the comprehensive index increased by 2.93%, the commodity 20 index increased by 2.55%, and the industrial product index increased by 3.87%. The steel industry chain index increased by 2.51% on the day, 3.54% in the past 5 days, - 0.37% in the past month, and 0.37% since the beginning of the year [102][103].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the first round of coke price cuts was implemented. Due to environmental protection inspections at steel mills, hot metal production declined temporarily, resulting in insufficient motivation for steel mills to replenish raw material inventories. This limited the upward movement of the overall raw material market. However, towards the end of the week, the uncertainty of the geopolitical situation increased the upward momentum of coking coal, coke, and iron ore, raising the cost support for raw materials [8]. - For iron ore, the supply side shows an increase in arrivals and port inventories, while the demand side experiences a short - term decline in hot metal production due to environmental protection production cuts at steel mills, with limited restocking motivation. But after the phased maintenance ends and terminal demand gradually improves, hot metal production is expected to increase, providing some restocking support for raw materials. The supply - demand situation may show a pattern of double growth, with short - term volatile and upward movement [3]. - For coking coal and coke, after the Lantern Festival, coal mines in the production areas recovered quickly, with the overall supply increasing. The weekly transactions were relatively weak, and the auction prices decreased. The short - term decline in hot metal production suppressed the steel mills' willingness to replenish raw material inventories. The inventories at coal mines increased slightly, while the coking coal inventories at downstream coking enterprises decreased. The coke inventories at ports and coking plants also increased. After the phased maintenance of steel mills in North China ends, the purchasing willingness for raw materials is expected to increase, and the supply - demand situation may show a double - growth structure, with a slight improvement in the fundamental situation expected [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The first round of coke price cuts was implemented. The prices of some steel products and raw materials changed, such as the price of HRB400E 20MM rebar in Shanghai increased by 10 yuan/ton, while the price of 4.75mm hot - rolled coil in Shanghai decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port increased by 15 yuan/wet ton, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Linfen increased by 60 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Iron Ore Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The iron ore price index was 102.99, a 1.39% increase from the previous period and a 2.12% increase year - on - year. The iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2713.3 tons, a 28.30% increase from the previous period and a 5.35% increase year - on - year. The arrivals at 45 ports were 2609.9 tons, a 21.57% increase from the previous period and a 41.95% increase year - on - year [17]. Demand - The daily hot metal production was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons from the previous period and a decrease of 2.92 tons year - on - year. The ore handling volume at 45 ports was 311.08 tons, a 4.22% increase from the previous period and a 2.45% increase year - on - year. The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 32.09 days, a 1.97% increase from the previous period and a 0.06% decrease year - on - year [22]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports was 17117.86 tons, a 0.15% increase from the previous period and an 18.70% increase year - on - year. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 9011.57 tons, a 0.81% decrease from the previous period and a 1.86% decrease year - on - year. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises was 24.18 days, a 0.54% increase from the previous period and a 3.90% decrease year - on - year [27]. 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Analysis Supply - The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.32%, a 20.63% increase from the previous period and a 2.07% decrease year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of coal washing plants was 26.57%, a 16.89% increase from the previous period and a 20.85% decrease year - on - year. The average daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.17 tons, an 82.88% increase from the previous period and a 128.91% increase year - on - year [32]. Coking Enterprises - The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was +17 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous period and an increase of 44 yuan/ton year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants was 73.95%, a 0.55% decrease from the previous period and a 4.33% increase year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of steel mill coke production was 85.89%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous period and a 1.16% decrease year - on - year [39]. Coking Coal Inventory - The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 796.17 tons, a 4.01% decrease from the previous period and a 19.61% increase year - on - year. The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 775.86 tons, a 2.12% decrease from the previous period and a 2.50% increase year - on - year. The coking coal inventory at ports was 267.7 tons, a 1.57% decrease from the previous period and a 30.69% decrease year - on - year [44]. Coke Inventory - The coke inventory of independent coking plants was 63.2 tons, a 1.62% increase from the previous period and a 27.62% decrease year - on - year. The coke inventory of steel mills was 671.26 tons, a 0.57% decrease from the previous period and a 1.16% decrease year - on - year. The coke inventory at ports was 203.11 tons, a 3.05% increase from the previous period and a 1.49% increase year - on - year [49]. Spot Price - The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week and an increase of 160 yuan/ton year - on - year. The ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Handan was 1340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous period and an increase of 30 yuan/ton year - on - year [52]. 3.4 Spread Analysis - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to shrink, and the spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 continued to widen [54].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by the Iran geopolitical conflict, which drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are mainly stable with limited stimulus, and the market expectation returns to the fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is under pressure due to factors such as production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. - For soda ash, supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3174 yuan/ton, 3119 yuan/ton, and 3147 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3291 yuan/ton, 3270 yuan/ton, and 3282 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions also changed. For example, the rebar summary price in China on March 9, 2026, was 3323 yuan/ton [9]. Market Analysis - The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of coking coal and iron ore, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, real - estate policies are stable, and the market returns to fundamentals. The supply of hot - rolled coils is affected by production restrictions and inventory, and the short - term rebound is limited [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 741 yuan/ton, 784.5 yuan/ton, and 758 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao also increased [23]. Fundamental Data - The daily average pig iron output on March 6, 2026, was 227.59 tons, a decrease of 5.69 tons compared with the previous week. The 45 - port inventory was 17117.86 tons, an increase of 25.9 tons compared with the previous week [29]. Market Analysis - The price of iron ore near - month contracts is supported by the tight supply of tradable resources, but the upside is restricted by high supply pressure, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [22]. Coking Coal and Coke Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the price difference between coking coal 09 - 01 was - 209.5 yuan/ton. The prices of coking coal and coke in different contracts and the corresponding price differences and profit data are also provided [36][39]. - The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions and the import and export profit data are also detailed [40]. Market Analysis - The coking coal market faces supply pressure due to the resumption of domestic coal mines and the rapid recovery of Mongolian coal imports. The coking profit of coke has improved, but the weak terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [35]. Ferroalloys Price Data - For ferrosilicon, on March 9, 2026, the spot prices in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, etc., increased. The price differences between different contracts are also provided [52]. - For ferromanganese, the spot prices in different regions also increased, and the price differences between different contracts are given [53][55]. Market Analysis - The cost support for ferroalloys is gradually strengthening, but the weak downstream steel demand and high inventory of steel plates limit the upside space [51]. Soda Ash Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1276 yuan/ton, 1330 yuan/ton, and 1358 yuan/ton respectively. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions are also provided [67]. Market Analysis - Supply maintenance may increase, affecting production. The demand is currently stable but weak, and the inventory is better than expected. The price upside is limited by demand elasticity, and the downside needs inventory accumulation [66]. Glass Price Data - On March 9, 2026, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1104 yuan/ton, 1211 yuan/ton, and 1280 yuan/ton respectively. The price differences between different contracts and the basis data are also provided [90]. - The daily production and sales data of glass in different regions are given [91]. Market Analysis - The glass market is in the recovery period with weak production and sales. The high inventory in the middle - stream and the expected return of supply limit the price increase, and the demand needs verification [89].

Report Title - Polyester Industry Chain Futures and Options March Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, with prices generally showing an upward - trending and volatile pattern [4][107][154] Summary by Directory Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In February 2026, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the polyester industry chain market followed costs with a downward - then - upward trend, mainly in a volatile consolidation. In early March, the Middle East geopolitical conflict, rising oil prices, expected restrictions on polyester raw material imports, and a decline in domestic production boosted prices to a new high since September 2023 [4] Crude Oil - In February 2026, the US military build - up in the Middle East and military attacks on Iran led to a significant increase in oil prices. In early March, the Brent crude oil futures contract exceeded $90 per barrel [9] - OPEC+ suspended production increases, with a month - on - month decline in crude oil production, while US commercial crude oil inventories increased [11] - Gasoline and diesel crack spreads strengthened, and the US refinery utilization rate decreased but was higher year - on - year. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, global crude oil supply tightened, and the demand was in a seasonal off - peak, with prices expected to remain volatile and strong [14][16] PX - In February 2026, PX prices were first depressed and then rose, hitting a new high in two and a half years. In March, the supply was expected to decrease, and the demand to increase, with a tightening supply - demand situation. The cost was expected to remain strong, and prices were likely to be volatile and strong [20][58] - The cost side, including naphtha, was in a tight supply - demand situation, with prices and crack spreads expected to be strong [24] - There were no new capacity plans for the first half of 2026, and the operating rate was expected to decline from a high level, with processing margins remaining at a relatively high level [25][31] - Demand was expected to increase month - on - month, imports were expected to decrease, and inventories were expected to decline [34][36][40] PTA - In February 2026, PTA prices were driven by costs, first falling and then rising, reaching a new high in two and a half years. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, with continued inventory accumulation, but cost strength would drive price increases [61][107] - Production was expected to increase as the operating rate was expected to rise to around 80%. There were no new capacity plans in 2026 [67][68] - Processing fees were under pressure, exports were expected to decline, and polyester capacity was increasing, with the operating rate expected to seasonally recover [71][78][83] Ethylene Glycol - In February 2026, ethylene glycol prices were under pressure due to high operating rates, weak demand, and inventory accumulation. In March, affected by the geopolitical conflict, prices rebounded strongly from the bottom [110] - The operating rate was expected to decline, with no new capacity in March, imports were expected to decrease, and ports were expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking [114][119][124] - Downstream polyester profits were under pressure, and the polyester operating rate was expected to seasonally recover, with an increase in demand for ethylene glycol [128][138] Polyester Staple Fiber - In February 2026, polyester staple fiber prices were first depressed and then rose, driven by costs, reaching a new high since October 2024. In March, supply and demand were expected to increase, but demand was relatively weak, and prices were expected to be volatile and strong [157][207] - Production capacity was expected to remain stable in the short term, with an increase in production year - on - year. The operating rate was expected to gradually recover, and processing fees were under pressure [163][166] - Terminal orders were expected to be postponed, textile and clothing exports were expected to be restricted, and inventories were expected to remain stable at around 15 days [169][172][192] Polyester Bottle Chips - In February 2026, polyester bottle chip prices followed costs with a strong - side oscillation, and processing fees were repaired. In March, prices continued to rise, with a tightening supply - demand situation and a decline in inventories [210][246] - The operating rate was expected to remain around 70% and then rise to 80% in the second half of the month. There were no new capacity plans in the short term, and production was expected to increase month - on - month [215][220] - Exports were expected to seasonally increase, domestic demand was expected to gradually recover, and inventories were expected to decline [225][228][230]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are unlikely to show a trend reversal and are likely to remain range - bound and weak. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily consumption of cement and building materials [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3088 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (0.422%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,646 tons, a net increase of 7,318 tons. The main contract position was 1.7987 million lots, a decrease of 38,543 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3,120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Shanghai it was 3,190 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton (0.654%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 472,215 tons, unchanged, and the main contract position was 1.3988 million lots, a decrease of 31,275 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3,240 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Shanghai it was 3,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Strategy View**: The overall price of finished steel continued to be volatile. Macro - policies will support infrastructure and manufacturing investment and underpin steel demand in the medium term. Real - estate policies focus on stabilizing the market and defusing risks, with limited incremental impact on steel demand. The demand for hot - rolled coils declined this week, and inventory continued to accumulate. For rebar, supply and demand both increased, but the inventory accumulation rate was too fast. Before peak - season demand is confirmed, prices are likely to remain range - bound and weak [3]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main iron ore contract (I2605) closed at 772.00 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.71% (+13.00), with a position change of - 10,515 lots to 488,300 lots. The weighted position was 888,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 764 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 38.93 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.80% [4]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments fluctuated slightly at a high level. Australian shipments declined, while Brazilian shipments increased. Near - term arrivals continued to fall. The latest daily hot - metal output decreased by 56,900 tons to 2.2759 million tons. Steel - mill profitability declined. Port inventory was basically unchanged, and steel - mill inventory continued to decline. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main manganese - silicon contract (SM605) closed up 0.62% at 6,130 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5,900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton. The main ferrosilicon contract (SF605) closed up 0.69% at 5,868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 332 yuan/ton. The manganese - silicon price rebounded and remained volatile at a high level, and the ferrosilicon price continued to rebound [7]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has shifted the overall sentiment of commodities towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling may not be appropriate. Manganese silicon has an unfavorable supply - demand pattern, while ferrosilicon has a good fundamental situation. Future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black - metal sector, cost increases from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and supply contractions for ferrosilicon [8][9]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On March 6, the main coking - coal contract (JM2605) closed up 1.58% at 1,123.0 yuan/ton. The main coke contract (J2605) closed up 1.13% at 1,695.5 yuan/ton. The coking - coal price rebounded slightly in March, and the coke price also rebounded slightly [11][12][13]. - **Strategy View**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" had a slightly positive impact on coking coal, driving up prices. However, downstream de - stocking and increased coal production in March will restrict short - term demand. Although the market sentiment has changed, there is not enough support for a sharp price rebound in the short term. In the long term, the coking - coal price is expected to rise from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - **Market Information**: The main industrial - silicon futures contract (SI2605) closed at 8,690 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.46% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 7,727 lots to 385,766 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the basis of the main contract was 410 yuan/ton [17]. - **Strategy View**: The industrial - silicon price fluctuated. Supply is expected to increase in March, and demand from the polysilicon and organic - silicon sectors is also likely to rise. The market may see a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction will be difficult. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to unexpected disturbances [18]. Polysilicon - **Market Information**: The main polysilicon futures contract (PS2605) closed at 41,115 yuan/ton on Friday, down 2.76% (-1,165). The weighted contract position decreased by 757 lots to 57,752 lots [19]. - **Strategy View**: Supply and demand in the polysilicon market are expected to increase in March, but inventory reduction may be limited. The spot price is under pressure, and the futures price is also expected to continue to face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to new order transactions [19]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - **Market Information**: The main glass contract closed at 1,055 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.64% (+17). The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises on March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 3.629 million boxes (4.77%) [21]. - **Strategy View**: Market demand has slightly improved, and glass manufacturers have raised prices. However, distributors' willingness to purchase is not strong. The government's real - estate policy continues to be "supportive but not over - stimulating", and there is potential for incremental policies. The reference range for the main contract is 1,070 - 1,130 yuan/ton [22]. Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The main soda - ash contract closed at 1,225 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.83% (+22). The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises on March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 52,800 tons (4.77%) [23]. - **Strategy View**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the actual procurement demand of downstream industries has not been effectively released. The cost of soda ash has increased due to the rise in domestic oil prices. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector in March. The reference range for the main contract is 1,230 - 1,315 yuan/ton [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Short - term cost support from coking coal and iron ore prices boosts steel prices, but high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils cap price increases. If destocking is below expectations, steel prices may fall. After the Two Sessions, market expectations return to the fundamentals of steel. The short - term upward trend of steel prices is limited, with the price range of rebar's main contract being 3000 - 3200 and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract being 3200 - 3350 [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Geopolitical conflicts in Iran drive up oil and energy prices, which in turn boost coking coal prices. Market rumors about China's procurement restrictions on BHP's iron ore, downstream post - holiday restocking demand, tight tradable iron ore inventory at ports, and rising sea freight prices support iron ore prices. However, high inventory and high warrants of hot - rolled coils, weakening steel demand, and limited policy stimulus pose challenges to steel prices [1][2] 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The steel market is expected to trade within a range. The price of rebar's main contract 2605 may range from 3050 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coils' main contract 2605 from 3200 - 3350. - **Near - term Trading Logic**: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, and pressure on the price of hot - rolled coils from high inventory and high warrants. - **Long - term Trading Expectations**: Expectations of steel production cuts and demand support from major projects in the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan [6] 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of rebar's 05 contract is predicted to be 2900 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils' 05 contract 3100 - 3500. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, companies with high finished - product inventory can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options. For procurement management, those with low inventory can buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options [8] 1.4 Data Overview - **Spot Prices**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in most regions showed a slight decline or remained stable. - **Base Difference**: The base differences of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally decreased. - **Overseas Data**: The FOB export prices and CFR import prices of hot - rolled coils in some countries and regions changed slightly [9][10] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - Not detailed in the provided content 2.2 Next - Week Important Event Concerns - China will announce February CPI on Monday, February M2 supply on Tuesday. The US will announce the end - of - February unadjusted CPI on Wednesday and the weekly initial jobless claims on Thursday [16][17] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Base Difference**: Cost support from iron ore and coking coal, but factors such as weakening blast furnace profits, high inventory, and weakening export orders suppress steel prices. - **Coil - Rebar Spread**, **Term Structure**, **Month - Spread Structure**: Various data charts are provided to show the historical trends of these indicators [16][18][27] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The report presents the profit trends of different steel products, including long - process rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, as well as the relationships between steel profits and production volumes [35][36][39] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - It shows the seasonal trends of hot - rolled coil export profits and their relationships with export volumes, orders, and price differences between domestic and overseas markets [53][58][68] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The cumulative consumption and production of five major steel products from January to March 6, 2026, are provided, along with their year - on - year growth rates. The current inventory levels of each product are also given [75] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The supply is affected by factors such as blast furnace and electric furnace production, steel enterprise profitability, and maintenance influence [80][83][92] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The report provides the consumption prediction trends of different steel products, including crude steel, five major steel products, rebar, and hot - rolled coils [94][96][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel**: The tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while the accumulation of smelting inventory limits price elasticity. In the short - term, trading is mainly based on the current mine - end contradictions, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips relying on the pyrometallurgical cost. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the supply elasticity of the Philippines and the second - round supplementary quota in Indonesia [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center has shifted upwards. In March, it is advisable to try long positions at low levels in the range, while being vigilant about macro risks [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: Indonesia is implementing various resource management measures, and the APNI Association mentioned a possible 30% quota revision in the middle of the year, which reduces the enthusiasm of speculative funds. In March, the total price of 1.6% grade nickel ore increased by $25 year - on - year to $70, and the integrated pyrometallurgical cash cost rose to 130,000 yuan/ton. If the mine - end contradictions fade in the middle of the year, there may be a logic of hydrometallurgy replacing pyrometallurgical marginal cost [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The conflict between the US and Iran has a negative impact on the global economy. The consumption of stainless steel in the Middle East accounts for about 2% of the global total. The market risk preference has decreased, and overseas inflation and interest - rate cut expectations are disturbed. The supply - demand contradiction of stainless steel itself is not significant. High - price stimulation has led to an increase in stainless steel production in March, and the cost logic support for stainless steel has shifted upwards [2]. 3.2. Inventory Tracking - **Refined Nickel**: On March 6, China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 4,730 tons to 81,349 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 426 tons to 287,550 tons [3][4]. - **New Energy**: On March 6, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by 0, - 2, 0 month - on - month to 5, 7, 7 days respectively. The precursor inventory decreased by 0.3 month - on - month to 13.3 days, and the ternary material inventory decreased by 0.1 month - on - month to 7.3 days [4]. - **Nickel - Iron - Stainless Steel**: On March 5, the SMM nickel - iron full - industry chain inventory increased by 10% month - on - month to 133,000 metal tons. In February, the SMM stainless steel factory inventory was 1.65 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 10%/8%. On March 5, the stainless steel social inventory was 1.15 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.94% [4]. 3.3. Market News - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [5]. - Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine in Guatemala in a few months [5]. - The approved nickel ore production quota in 2026 is between 260 million and 270 million tons [5]. - Philippine miners said the export volume of nickel ore to Indonesia may double [6]. - A landslide occurred in a tailings area in the Morowali Industrial Park in Indonesia, resulting in one death and the suspension of operations in the affected area [6]. - Sherritt International Corporation reduced the operation scale of its joint - venture in Cuba due to limited fuel supply [6]. - PT Weda Bay Nickel's production quota was cut by 70% compared with 2025 [7]. - Four nickel - mining companies in North Maluku Province, Indonesia, were sanctioned and fined [7]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources estimated the nickel ore production in 2026 to be about 209 million tons, including 540,000 tons of nickel - iron and 92,000 tons of nickel matte [7]. - The APNI Association said the revised RKAB in 2026 may increase the nickel production quota by up to 30% and is expected to be approved in July [8]. 3.4. Weekly Key Data Tracking - The report provides data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and other indicators of nickel and stainless - steel futures, as well as prices and spreads in the industrial chain, such as the price of 1 imported nickel, the premium of nickel beans, and the price of 304/2B stainless - steel coils [10].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market continues to exhibit a "weak supply and demand" pattern, with futures prices supported by cost factors and a slight recovery in macro sentiment, while the spot market remains stagnant [1][4]. Supply Side Summary - Post-Spring Festival, production has seen a slight increase due to the resumption of operations, particularly in Xinjiang, where pre-holiday production cuts were effective in reducing inventory levels [2]. - In the Southwest region, high electricity costs and seasonal drought conditions have kept operational rates low, with Yunnan operating at less than 10% and Sichuan nearly at zero [2]. - Inner Mongolia's production is constrained due to slow resumption after pre-holiday cuts, while Gansu's operations remain stable despite ongoing losses due to long-term contracts [2]. Demand Side Summary - Overall demand recovery post-holiday has been weaker than expected, particularly in the polysilicon sector, where high inventory levels and price declines have limited procurement [3]. - The organic silicon market shows signs of reduced demand support due to new production cuts, while the aluminum alloy sector is experiencing slow recovery due to low construction activity and a slowdown in automotive growth [3]. - Export markets are affected by fluctuations in photovoltaic component policies and exchange rates, with domestic prices remaining firm despite weak overseas demand [3]. Market Dynamics Summary - The market is characterized by a three-way interplay of rising cost support, realized supply contraction, and weak demand recovery [4]. - Short-term price expectations for industrial silicon suggest a continued oscillation around a stable bottom, with limited upward drivers from supply releases and downward pressure from demand constraints [4]. - The focus remains on the resumption pace of major producers in Xinjiang and the inventory reduction progress in polysilicon [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market, especially the market - rescue strategy launched by South Korea, and observe the emotional transmission of external markets such as the South Korean stock index; also focus on the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - The market fluctuates under the intertwined influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. - The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Although the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise [1]. - The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - The raw material prices of stainless steel rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. - The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - The supply of industrial silicon increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The spot of steel products has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - The iron ore has obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of some products are weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for prices [1]. - The short - term supply and demand of glass are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda ash follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. - Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices of energy - chemical products, and coal and coke prices strengthen. It is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the prices of oils and fats, but the current fundamental pressure of oils and fats is large, and it is necessary to be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil prices [1]. - Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - The corn price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - The softwood pulp is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - The log spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - The pig spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. - The Middle East conflict leads to risks and premiums in the commodity market, and the prices of fuel oil and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts and cost support [1]. - The prices of BR rubber, PTA, and other chemical products are affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors [1]. - The prices of some chemical products such as urea, methanol, and PVC are affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - The PG price is affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. - The container shipping European line is affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Pay attention to the emotional resonance of the Asia - Pacific stock market and the evolution of the Middle East war situation. If the geopolitical situation eases, the short - term adjustment of the stock index will bring good long - position layout opportunities [1]. - Treasury Bond: The market fluctuates under the influence of multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure brought by fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The deterioration of the Middle East situation suppresses market risk appetite, and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories leads to a continued weak adjustment of copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: The supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East continues to heat up, and the rising energy prices increase costs, so aluminum prices continue to rise. Domestic alumina has a weak fundamental situation and short - term price fluctuations [1]. - Zinc: The uncertainty of the Middle East situation and the concern about zinc ore supply support zinc prices, and the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. - Nickel: The complex and changeable Middle East situation and the tightening concern of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota make nickel prices likely to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to go long on dips while controlling risks [1]. - Stainless Steel: The raw material prices rise after the festival, the social inventory increases, and the futures price fluctuates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to low - long opportunities while controlling risks [1]. - Tin: The inflation risk heats up, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous metal sector, and tin prices fluctuate with high volatility. Investors are advised to focus on risk management and profit protection [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold, Silver, Platinum, and Palladium: The continuous conflict between the US and Iran, geopolitical games, inflation concerns, and a strong US dollar continue to disturb the precious metal market, and the prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply increases in the northwest and decreases in the southwest, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon decline in December [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: The demand is strong due to factors such as strong energy storage demand, battery export rush, and mine - end disturbances. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. Black Metals - Steel Products (Threaded Steel, Hot - Rolled Coil): The spot has not fully recovered. It is necessary to observe the spot start - up situation around the Lantern Festival, and it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations [1]. - Iron Ore: The upward pressure is obvious, and it is not recommended to chase the long position at this position [1]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Geopolitical conflicts drive up the prices, but it is necessary to pay attention to the market logic moving towards stagflation, and relevant trading operations need to be cautious [1]. - Glass: The short - term supply and demand are weak, but the expected reduction in supply, intensified geopolitical conflicts, and rising energy prices provide cost support [1]. - Soda Ash: Follows glass, is affected by geopolitical conflicts in the short term, and faces price pressure in the medium term due to looser supply and demand [1]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten in the 2026/27 season, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise gradually with demand recovery and planting reduction expectations [1]. - Sugar: The global sugar market is under increasing supply pressure in the 2025/26 season, and the domestic sugar market is in a situation of loose supply. It is expected that Zheng sugar prices will have limited fluctuations and maintain an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1]. - Corn: The price is supported by factors such as fast grain sales in the Northeast, stable downstream breeding demand, and low post - festival inventory, but it is necessary to be vigilant against negative feedback from high prices [1]. - Soybean Meal: The soybean FOB price is under pressure due to Brazil's bumper harvest, and the upside of the soybean meal futures price is limited in the short term [1]. - Softwood Pulp: Expected to fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5400 in the short term, and it is necessary to pay attention to the post - festival port inventory [1]. - Log: The spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1]. - Pig: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, but the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil and Asphalt: Affected by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and demand recovery [1]. - BR Rubber: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, cost support, and supply - demand relationships, the price has an upward space [1]. - PTA: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and production capacity maintenance, the supply is expected to tighten [1]. - Other Chemical Products (Urea, Methanol, PVC, etc.): Affected by factors such as export, supply - demand, and geopolitical situations [1]. - PG: Affected by factors such as CP price, geopolitical conflict, and demand, showing a strong trend, but there are also differentiation and pressure factors [1]. Others - Container Shipping European Line: Affected by war emotions, red - sea situation, and shipping company price - increasing intentions [1].