投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-29 淡季驱动有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压制盘⾯估值。焦炭⾸轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘⾯低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂⽆，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘⾯存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘⾯上⽅空间。 钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压制盘面估值。焦炭首轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘面低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂无，盘面震荡运 行。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘面存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增 加，天气影响供应端仍存扰动预期，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实 方面供需两端仍有待验证。废钢供应平稳，日耗有下降预期，整体基 本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端支撑坚挺，且钢厂复产预期仍在，冬储 补库需求仍存，焦炭供 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: Long - term bullish on stock indices, suggesting buying on dips; government bonds are expected to move in a range [1] - **Black Building Materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, and waiting and seeing for glass [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Waiting and seeing or holding long positions in small quantities for copper; strengthening observation for aluminum; waiting and seeing for nickel; range trading or taking profit on previous long positions for tin; range trading for gold; bullish movement for silver; range - bound oscillation for lithium carbonate [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, caustic soda and soda ash for the time being, range trading for styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; weak oscillation for polyolefins [1] - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Oscillatory adjustment for cotton and cotton yarn, oscillatory movement for apples and jujubes [1] - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Opportunities for short - selling on rebounds for hogs; hedging post - festival contracts on rallies for eggs; being cautious about chasing highs and waiting for rebounds to hedge for corn; bearish on rallies for soybean meal; bullish oscillation for three major oils [1] 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their current market conditions, including macro - economic factors, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. It also emphasizes the importance of paying attention to policy changes, inventory levels, and external market factors [1][5][7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Medium - to long - term bullish, suggesting buying on dips. Market is volatile due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate decision, China's industrial profit data, and consumer spending intentions [5] - **Government Bonds**: Expected to move in a range. There is no significant negative news in the bond market, but there is limited downward space for bond yields without more capital inflows [5] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. The coal market shows short - term fluctuations, but the price increase may not be sustainable due to factors like weak downstream demand and stable supply [7] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The futures price is slightly higher than the valley - electricity cost of electric furnaces and lower than the flat - electricity cost. There is no significant supply - demand contradiction in the short term [7] - **Glass**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is stable, the market speculative demand is weak, and the downstream inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate between 1050 - 1070 [8] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High - level oscillation. Macro factors provide support, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see or hold long positions in small quantities, and beware of the risk of a pullback before the Spring Festival [9] - **Aluminum**: High - level oscillation. The supply of bauxite and alumina is relatively stable, and the demand is entering the off - season. It is recommended to strengthen observation [11] - **Nickel**: Oscillatory movement. The reduction of Indonesian nickel ore quotas has boosted the price, but the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [13] - **Tin**: Oscillatory movement. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and the downstream demand is mainly for rigid procurement. It is recommended for range trading or taking profit on previous long positions [13] - **Silver**: Bullish movement. Geopolitical tensions and changes in the Fed's leadership expectations have pushed up the price. It is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about new positions [15] - **Gold**: Range trading. Similar to silver, geopolitical and Fed - related factors have led to a higher price center. It is recommended for range trading and be cautious about chasing highs [15] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound oscillation. The supply is affected by mine production, and the demand from the energy - storage terminal is good. The price is expected to be bullish [17] Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The bottom may have been reached. The supply is high, the demand is weak, but the valuation is low. It is recommended for long - term low - buying and positive spread trading [17] - **Caustic Soda**: Low - level oscillation. The demand is weak, and the supply pressure is high. It is recommended to wait and see [19] - **Styrene**: Oscillatory movement. The price has rebounded due to export growth and device maintenance, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs [19] - **Rubber**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is shrinking, but the inventory pressure remains. The price is in a state of multi - empty tug - of - war [20] - **Urea**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is increasing, the demand from compound fertilizers is rising, and the inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate between 1730 - 1830 [21] - **Methanol**: Oscillatory movement. The supply is decreasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is weakening, and the traditional downstream demand is also weak [23] - **Polyolefins**: Weak oscillation. The supply is increasing, the demand from PE downstream is declining, and the price is expected to be weak with limited upside [24] - **Soda Ash**: Waiting and seeing. The supply is in excess, but the cost support is strong. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily [24] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillatory adjustment. The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the internal - external price difference has put pressure on the domestic market. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [24] - **Apples**: Oscillatory movement. The packaging and shipping in the production areas have accelerated slightly, but the overall market is still weak [26] - **Jujubes**: Oscillatory movement. The purchase price of Xinjiang gray jujubes in the 2025 production season is in a certain range, and the acquisition is based on quality [26] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Hogs**: Bottom - building oscillation. In the short term, the price is restricted by supply - demand game. It is recommended to short on rebounds for off - season contracts. In the long term, be cautious about being bullish due to high - level production capacity and cost reduction [28] - **Eggs**: Rebound from a low level. The current valuation is high, and it is recommended to hedge post - festival contracts on rallies. Also, consider hedging the 05 and 06 contracts due to the possible post - poned supply pressure [30] - **Corn**: Limited upside. In the short term, the supply - demand is balanced, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs. In the long term, the supply - demand situation is relatively loose, restricting the price increase [32] - **Soybean Meal**: Low - level oscillation. The short - term support for the M2603 contract is at 3000 - 3030, and the pressure for the far - month 05 contract is at 2800 - 2850. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [32] - **Oils**: Bullish oscillation. The three major oils are expected to move strongly. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold previous long positions [38]

Sugar Market - Brazil exported 1.7376 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first four weeks of January, with an average daily export of 108,600 tons [2] - In January 2025, Brazil's sugar export volume is projected to be 2.0622 million tons, with a daily average of 93,700 tons [2] - Domestic sugar prices are slightly down, with Guangxi Sugar Group quoting between 5,250 to 5,320 CNY/ton and Yunnan Sugar Group between 5,120 to 5,170 CNY/ton, both down by 10 CNY/ton [2] - Raw sugar remains in the range of 14.5 to 15 cents per pound, with no significant breakthroughs expected [2] - As the holiday approaches, domestic spot transactions are slowing down, but market consensus suggests effective cost support, limiting the potential for significant price declines [2] - Short-term outlook is for price fluctuations, while medium-term focus will be on import rhythms to assess the possibility of forming a mid-term bottom [2] Cotton Market - ICE cotton rose by 1.29% to 63.78 cents per pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 0.38% to 14,565 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 9,225 contracts to 786,700 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is at 15,535 CNY/ton, down 25 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with a greater than 95% probability of no interest rate cuts in January, and expectations for the first rate cut of the year pushed to June [8] - Domestic cotton market shows limited pre-holiday demand from textile enterprises, with raw material inventory levels at moderately high levels [8] - Cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports leading to ample supply, making it difficult for prices to sustain upward momentum [4][8] - The overall expectation is for cotton prices to remain volatile before the holiday, with medium to long-term prospects still looking promising [4][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [8] 2. Core View of the Report - The current black building materials market is under real - world pressure, with the futures market running weakly. The slow resumption of steel mills, high iron ore shipments and inventories, and the weakening support of coal - coke restocking all contribute to the weak market. In the off - season, the steel inventory accumulation pressure is increasing, the cost support is loosening, and the supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress prices. Although there is downward pressure on the short - term futures market, there is a possibility of a low - level rebound in furnace material prices before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to downstream restocking efforts and macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Supply**: Iron ore arrivals have decreased, temporarily alleviating supply pressure, but inventory pressure is still increasing. There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side due to weather. Scrap steel supply has rebounded, and daily consumption is expected to decline [2] - **Demand**: Before the festival, restocking supports ore prices, but the actual supply - demand situation on both sides remains to be verified. Scrap steel consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [2] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost support is strong, and there are still expectations of steel mill复产 and winter restocking demand. The contradiction in the supply - demand structure is limited, and spot price increases are still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The demand side is still in the process of winter restocking, and the supply side is expected to see a decline in coal mine production near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to improve marginally, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has priced in the winter restocking, the positive driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand is in a loose state, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is under pressure, but the room for further decline is limited, and it is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The market has a situation of weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental contradictions. The poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price, and it is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [3] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still disturbance expectations on the supply side, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. Currently, the supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair by the end of the year, high inventory will suppress prices, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, prices will rise [3] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and in the long term, the supply surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] 3.5 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Steel**: The cost support has shifted downwards, and the futures market is running weakly. The spot market trading is generally weak, the steel mill profitability rate is improving, the iron water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the demand is seasonally weak. There is pressure on inventory accumulation, and the short - term futures market still has downward pressure, but the downward space is limited [10] - **Iron Ore**: The spot price is stable with a slight upward trend, and port trading has decreased month - on - month. Overseas mine shipments have increased, arrivals have weakened, and the supply side is affected by weather. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and steel mills are restocking with weak enthusiasm. Port and steel mill inventories are increasing, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [10][11] - **Scrap Steel**: This week's arrivals have decreased, and the spot price has risen slightly. Supply has declined slightly, demand is expected to decrease, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with spot prices expected to follow finished products [12] - **Coke**: The futures market oscillates, and the cost support is strong. The steel mills are resistant to price increases, and the environmental protection disturbances are frequent. The demand side has a slight increase in iron water output, and the inventory is increasing. Spot price increases are still expected to be implemented, and the futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12][14] - **Coking Coal**: The futures market is stable, and the supply is stable with high imports. The demand side is in the process of winter restocking, and the inventory is gradually reaching the target. After the futures market has priced in the restocking, the positive driving force is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [15] - **Glass**: The spot price has risen month - on - month, and the futures market oscillates. The supply side has limited losses, and there is unlikely to be a large - scale cold repair in the short term. The demand side is weak, and the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. If there is no more cold repair, prices will be weakly oscillating; otherwise, prices will rise [16] - **Soda Ash**: The supply has increased month - on - month, and the spot contradictions are limited. The supply side has a slight increase in daily output, the demand side has a weakening trend, and the supply - demand is in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [16] - **Manganese Silicon**: The inventory pressure is large, and the futures price is weakly sorted. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large. The futures price is expected to run at a low level around the cost valuation [18] - **Silicon Iron**: The trading atmosphere is poor, and the futures market is weakly oscillating. The cost support has loosened, the supply - demand is weak, and the trading activity suppresses the upward space. It is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation in the short term [19]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美方称如果加拿大同中国达成新的贸易协 议，美国将对自加拿大进口的商品加征100%关税。外交部发言 人郭嘉昆对此表示，中加构建新型战略伙伴关系，就妥善解决 中加之间的经贸问题作出一些具体安排，不针对任何第三方。 评：关税及伊朗方面的地缘政治问题持续发酵，避险情绪对黄 金存在支撑。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及美联储主席更 迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度走高，但是短期黄金或受美联储议 息会议影响，注意管控风险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel煤焦事业部调研全国30家独立焦化 厂吨焦盈利情况，全国平均吨焦盈利-66元/吨；山西准一级焦 平均盈利-51元/吨，山东准一级焦平均盈利-8元/吨，内蒙二级 焦平均盈利-103元/吨，河北准一级焦平均盈利-11元/吨。评： 焦炭成本支撑坚挺，且钢厂后续复产预期仍在，冬储补库需求 仍存，焦炭基本面将保持健康，现货提涨落地后预计跟随成本 运行，盘面则跟随焦煤震荡运行。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月27日 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F3008987 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012 ...

Report Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - The supply side of steel is disturbed, the resumption of production by steel mills is slow, and the high shipment and high inventory of iron ore suppress the valuation of the futures market. As the downstream replenishment of coking coal and coke progresses, the support for replenishment weakens. During the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the cost - side support is loosening, causing the futures market to face pressure. The oversupply of glass and soda ash continues to suppress futures prices. Before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment intensity, and the resumption of production by steel enterprises in January is expected to boost the replenishment expectation, with the furnace material prices having the expectation of a low - level rebound [1][2][3] Summary by Category 1. Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments have increased, mainly due to the recovery in Australia, while Brazil and non - mainstream countries have declined. The arrival volume has weakened, and there are still expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The demand side has a stable rigid demand, and steel mills are in the process of replenishing inventory but with weak enthusiasm. Ports and steel mills are both increasing inventory, and the total inventory pressure is accumulating. In the short term, the supply pressure eases slightly, but the inventory pressure increases. The pre - festival replenishment on the demand side supports the ore price, and the supply - demand situation remains to be verified, with the short - term trend expected to be oscillatory [8] - **Scrap Steel**: The average arrival volume this week has slightly decreased, lower than the same period in previous lunar years. The daily consumption of electric furnaces is expected to decline, and the daily consumption of long - process scrap steel has also slightly decreased. Steel enterprises' inventory has increased, and the pre - festival replenishment progress is close to last year. The supply is stable, the daily consumption is expected to decline, and the overall fundamentals will marginally weaken, with the spot price expected to follow the finished products [9] 2. Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost - side support is strong, and there are still expectations for the resumption of production by steel mills and winter storage replenishment demand. The supply - demand structural contradiction is limited, and the spot price increase is still expected to be implemented. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal [12] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is stable, and the import of Mongolian coal is at a high level. The demand side is still in the winter storage stage, and the supply of coal mines is expected to decline near the holiday. The fundamentals will continue to marginally improve, with strong spot support. However, after the futures market has factored in the winter - storage replenishment, the bullish driving force of the fundamentals is limited, and it is expected to oscillate [13] 3. Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The cost support has loosened, the market supply - demand remains loose, and the upstream inventory reduction pressure is large, suppressing the futures price. However, the current futures price has fallen to a low level, and the further downward space is limited under the cost support, with the price expected to operate at a low level around the cost valuation [3][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: The supply - demand is weak, the fundamental contradiction is limited, but the poor market trading activity suppresses the upward space of the futures price. In the short term, the futures price is expected to oscillate around the cost valuation [3][17] 4. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has expectations of disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high, and the current supply - demand is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply - demand is in oversupply. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the oversupply pattern will intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [3][14][16] 5. Steel - The spot market trading is average, the profitability of steel mills is improving, the iron - water output has stopped falling and stabilized, and the production of the five major steel products has remained stable. During the off - season, the demand is seasonally weakening, and the pressure of inventory accumulation is emerging. Based on the subsequent resumption of production by steel mills and winter - storage replenishment, the downside space of furnace materials is limited, and the cost side has support. However, due to the inventory accumulation pressure and lack of fundamental highlights, the futures market faces upward pressure, and it is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [8] 6. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index increased by 1.13% to 2503.03, the Commodity 20 Index increased by 1.44% to 2879.55, the industrial products index increased by 0.40% to 2369.84, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.19% to 1461.06 [102] - **Plate Index**: The steel industry chain index on January 26, 2026, was 1989.86, with a daily decline of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 0.93%, a 1 - month increase of 0.69%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.70% [103]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Reports Polyolefins - Polyolefin prices are strong due to capital rotation into the chemical sector and geopolitical tensions. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventories are being depleted. PP supply pressure is relieved due to many maintenance activities, while PE faces pressure from reduced maintenance and import expectations [1]. Methanol - Methanol futures are oscillating strongly, but the basis is weakening, and trading volume is average. The methanol market has weak supply and demand, and the rebound space is restricted by high production. The port inventory is slightly depleted, but MTO demand is weak, suppressing price rebounds [4]. Natural Rubber - In the short - term, the natural rubber market has a strong sentiment to rise due to the strong performance of the synthetic rubber market. However, considering the weak demand, the upside is expected to be limited, with an operating range of 15,500 - 16,500 [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The marginal supply - demand of pure benzene is slightly improving, but the port inventory is unexpectedly increasing, limiting its self - driving force. Styrene has strong short - term performance due to export - driven inventory reduction, but the supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the price difference between styrene and pure benzene is expected to compress [10]. Urea - Urea futures are rising, and the spot market is mixed. The supply is sufficient, while the demand is weak, lacking effective support for price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory, with the main contract focusing on the 1760 - 1800 range [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda - Caustic soda futures are slightly rebounding, but the spot price is declining. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the upside of futures is expected to be limited. PVC futures are rising, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak, and the upside is also expected to be restricted [13]. Glass - Soda Ash - Soda ash futures are oscillating, and the spot price is stable. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. Glass futures are also oscillating, with weak supply - demand during the pre - holiday off - season. Both need to be vigilant against potential price drops [14]. Crude Oil - Oil prices are mainly influenced by Middle - East geopolitics and the US cold wave. Although the cold wave's impact is weakening, geopolitical premiums still support oil prices [15]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX and PTA supply - demand are weakening before the Spring Festival, but have strong support in the second quarter. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand is weak in the near - term and strong in the long - term. Short - fiber's supply - demand is weak. Polyester bottle - chip's supply is decreasing, and the price and processing fee will follow the cost [18]. LPG - LPG prices are rising. The upstream refinery operating rate is increasing, while the downstream PDH operating rate is decreasing. The inventory situation is mixed, with the refinery inventory ratio increasing and the port inventory decreasing [19]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefins Price Changes - L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 closing prices all increased, with PP2609 rising 1.35% [1]. - Spot prices of East - China PP and North - China LLDPE also rose [1]. Inventory and Operating Rates - PE and PP enterprise inventories decreased, with PP enterprise inventory dropping 7.85% [1]. - PE device operating rate increased by 3.77%, while downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 3.42% [1]. Methanol Price Changes - MA2605 and MA2609 closing prices increased, and the basis weakened [4]. - Spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Henan, and Taicang all rose [4]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 2.78%, while port inventory increased by 1.55% [4]. - Upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 0.64%, and downstream MTO device operating rate decreased by 1.56% [4]. Natural Rubber Price Changes - Yunnan state - owned whole - latex and Thai standard mixed rubber prices decreased slightly [7]. Production and Operating Rates - November production in some countries decreased, while December domestic tire production and export increased [7]. Inventory Changes - Bonded area inventory increased by 2.94%, while factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 2.49% [7]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Price Changes - Upstream crude oil and some raw material prices changed slightly, and styrene and pure benzene prices also had minor fluctuations [10]. Inventory and Operating Rates - Pure benzene and styrene inventories in Jiangsu ports increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain changed [10]. Urea Price Changes - Futures prices rose, and the spot market was mixed [12]. Supply and Demand - Domestic urea daily production increased by 2.64%, and the demand was weak [12]. PVC - Caustic Soda Price Changes - Caustic soda spot prices declined, and PVC spot and futures prices increased [13]. Supply and Demand - Caustic soda supply - demand imbalance persisted, and PVC supply was high with weak demand [13]. Glass - Soda Ash Price Changes - Glass and soda ash futures prices increased slightly, and spot prices were stable [14]. Supply and Demand - Soda ash production was high, and glass production and sales were average during the pre - holiday off - season [14]. Crude Oil Price Changes - Brent and WTI prices decreased slightly, while SC increased by 2.62% [15]. Influencing Factors - Oil prices were affected by geopolitical tensions and the US cold wave [15]. Polyester Industry Chain Price Changes - Upstream and downstream product prices in the polyester industry chain changed to varying degrees [18]. Inventory and Operating Rates - MEG port inventory increased, and some operating rates in the industry chain decreased [18]. LPG Price Changes - LPG futures prices increased, and the basis weakened [19]. Inventory and Operating Rates - LPG refinery inventory ratio increased, and port inventory decreased. The upstream operating rate increased, and the downstream PDH operating rate decreased [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - PTA: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Short Fiber: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Methanol: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend and poor operability, suggesting to wait and see) [1] - PVC: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Caustic Soda: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Soda Ash: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Glass: The rating symbol is not clearly interpretable [1] - Styrene: ★☆★ (The meaning is not clearly defined in the context) [1] - Pure Benzene: No clear rating provided in a comparable format 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various chemical products. Overall, different products face diverse situations in terms of supply and demand, cost, and inventory. Some products show short - term bullish trends under the influence of factors such as geopolitical situations, macro - sentiment, and production changes, while others are under pressure due to factors like weakening demand and high inventory. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose during the day. Market supply has no obvious pressure, production enterprise quotes are slightly adjusted, and the premium situation in real - order auctions has decreased. Downstream factories are more wait - and - see, mainly purchasing at low prices based on rigid demand [2]. - Plastic and polypropylene futures rose during the day, but fundamental support is limited. For polyethylene, supply pressure will increase with new device production and restart of maintenance devices, and demand is weakening as the year - end approaches. For polypropylene, the number of parking devices has increased recently, and the overall spot supply pressure is not large, but downstream demand is weak [2]. Polyester - Polyester had a smooth de - stocking before the festival. PTA has no new capacity in the first half of the year, so it is a long - position allocation. However, demand is currently declining, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, considering PX maintenance and polyester load - increasing expectations, there are opportunities for long positions in PX processing margins and positive spreads [3]. - Ethylene glycol production decreased slightly last week. There are expectations of both supply and demand decline, and inventory is expected to accumulate around the Spring Festival. In the second quarter, there are expectations of concentrated maintenance and demand recovery. In the long - term, it is still under pressure due to capacity growth [3]. - Short - fiber enterprises have high loads and low inventories. Downstream orders are weak, and profits are thin. Affected by raw material price increases, downstream increased备货 last week, and prices rose following raw materials [3]. - Bottle - chip production decreased, and processing margins have been repaired under low - load and relatively low inventory levels. In the long - term, there is still capacity pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The upward trend of pure benzene futures prices slowed down, and the basis of East China spot narrowed. The demand for pure benzene increased due to the recovery of downstream styrene profits and production. In the short - term, the market is expected to be volatile and bullish, and in the long - term, pure benzene is expected to gradually reduce inventory [5]. - Styrene futures fluctuated during the day. The cost support strengthened due to the rise of crude oil and pure benzene. The supply decreased due to device maintenance, and the demand was basically stable, so the price rose strongly. However, the futures price is far from the moving - average system, and there is short - term pressure as the Spring Festival stocking period is approaching the end [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol market rose sharply due to the escalation of the geopolitical situation in Iran. Overseas device operation rates remained low, and port inventory increased slightly. In the short - term, the market is expected to be bullish under the boost of the macro - environment, and in the long - term, port inventory is expected to gradually decrease [6]. - Urea futures were stable in a fluctuating manner, and spot prices showed a differentiated trend. Before the Spring Festival, industrial downstream demand is expected to decline, and large - scale spring plowing fertilizer demand has not yet started. The supply pressure remains high, and the market will continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Factory inventory decreased, but social inventory increased, and the overall inventory still has pressure. Exports are good, but domestic demand is average. It is expected that the price center will rise this year [7]. - Caustic soda showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Liquid caustic soda prices have not yet stabilized and continue to decline. The industry inventory is under high pressure. The profit of chlor - alkali integration is acceptable, and the operation rate has rebounded. The follow - up production reduction needs to be continuously tracked [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Weekly inventory increased slightly, and the overall pressure is high. Supply pressure is large, and downstream purchasing sentiment is poor. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate with the macro - environment, and in the long - term, it faces over - supply pressure [8]. - Glass showed a bullish - biased fluctuating trend. Spot prices in some regions were raised today. Inventory fluctuates slightly, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation as downstream enterprises approach the holiday. Currently, the valuation is low, and it may fluctuate with the macro - sentiment [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

Core Viewpoint - The rebound in polyethylene prices is limited due to insufficient fundamental support, primarily driven by capital market dynamics and geopolitical tensions [5][18]. Supply Side - Domestic polyethylene supply showed a slight increase in operating rates and production, with an operating rate of 84.67%, up 3.08% week-on-week, and a weekly production of 69.89 million tons, an increase of 2.91 million tons [8][27]. - The industry is experiencing a gradual release of capacity as major facilities restart operations, which may continue to exert pressure on prices [8][27]. - The import and export windows for polyethylene remain closed, with domestic imports expected to decline further [10][29]. Demand Side - The demand side is characterized by a traditional consumption off-season, leading to cautious purchasing behavior from downstream sectors [11][30]. - The overall operating rate in downstream industries is 39.53%, down 1.4% week-on-week, primarily due to the upcoming Spring Festival [11][30]. - Specific sectors like agricultural films are experiencing reduced operating rates, with the agricultural film sector at 36.32%, down 0.61% [13][32]. Inventory - Domestic polyethylene inventory continues to decrease, but the rate of reduction has slowed down [14][33]. - As of January 13, production enterprise inventory was 335,000 tons, down 1.53 million tons week-on-week, while trader inventory was 26,600 tons, down 0.26 million tons [14][33]. Cost Side - Rising raw material prices, influenced by geopolitical factors, are providing some support to the market, although the overall oil market remains weak [16][35]. - The recent increase in propylene and methanol futures prices has not significantly improved the spot market transaction atmosphere [16][35]. Summary - Short-term polyethylene prices are expected to maintain a "cost support + capital-driven" oscillating strong trend, but the upside is constrained by fundamental factors [18][37]. - With strong cost support and positive capital market sentiment, polyethylene prices may continue to rise slightly, but the overall volatility is likely to be limited due to high price levels and low acceptance from downstream buyers [18][37].