Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is not prepared to yield to Trump's immediate interest rate cut demands, indicating that certain conditions must be met for a change in stance [1] - Powell emphasizes the need to observe inflation data before deciding on interest rate cuts, particularly in light of high tariffs potentially raising inflation temporarily [2][3] - The upcoming June Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is critical; a month-over-month increase of 0.2% or higher could delay rate cuts until September, while a low increase like May's 0.1% could reignite July cut expectations [2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is tasked with maintaining low inflation while also ensuring a strong job market, with Powell suggesting that significant deterioration in employment could prompt earlier or more aggressive rate cuts [3] - Despite a low unemployment rate of 4.2%, signs of stress in the job market are emerging, including a slowdown in hiring and an increase in unemployment claims [3]

Core Viewpoint - Trump is increasingly dissatisfied with the Federal Reserve's inaction on interest rate cuts, prompting him to consider announcing his choice for the next Fed chair earlier than expected [1][2]. Group 1: Potential Candidates - Trump is considering several candidates for the next Fed chair, including former Fed governor Kevin Walsh, National Economic Council director Hassett, Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, former World Bank president Malpass, and current Fed governor Waller [1][2][6]. - Walsh is viewed as a leading contender, having previously discussed the position with Trump, while Hassett has expressed disinterest in the role [3][5]. - Mnuchin's ability to navigate chaotic tariff policies has made him popular on Wall Street, and he has not ruled out the idea of becoming Fed chair [5][6]. Group 2: Implications of Early Announcement - Announcing a new Fed chair earlier than the usual transition period could allow the nominee to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths [2][7]. - However, this approach carries risks, as the incoming chair may face challenges in publicly criticizing future Fed colleagues and could be perceived as a sycophant by market participants [7][8]. Group 3: Current Fed Chair's Position - Current Fed chair Powell has reiterated that political considerations will not influence Fed decisions and emphasized a cautious approach to potential rate cuts [2][10]. - Powell has not indicated whether he will leave the Fed board after his term ends, focusing instead on maintaining economic strength and controlling inflation [10].

| | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | TC 国贸期货 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沥青数据日报 | | | | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 投资咨询号:Z0021177 卢钊毅 | | | | 2025/6/26 | | 呉沥青 | | 从业资格号:F03101843 数据来源:钢联 | | | | | | 들 | | 华东 华北 | 华南 | 东北 | 西北 | 山东 | | 现点 | 现值 | 3710 3780 | 3680 | 3900 | 3900 | 3750 | | 货 区 域 | 前值 | 3780 3830 | 3690 | 3900 | 3900 | 3800 | | 涨幅 | | (70) (50) | (10) | 0 | 0 | (50) | | 企 | | 东海-山东 昆仑-广东 海韵-山东 弘润-山东 路畅-山东 长江-江苏 | | | | | | 现业 | 现值 | 3950 3480 | 3710 | 3580 | 3750 | 3630 | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 【宏观及行业新闻】 宏观方面，鲍威尔国会听证次日：重申不急行动，关税史无前例，难预测对通胀影响，消费者可能要承 担部分关税，贸易协议可能让美联储考虑降息。（华尔街见闻） 微观方面，印度亿万富翁 Gautam Adani 拥有的一家新铜冶炼厂本周开始加工矿石，此前该冶炼厂项 目因原料缺乏而多次延误。（SMM） 日本 JX 金属公司（JX Advanced Metals Corp.）的发言人称，该公司将削减数万吨精炼铜产量，因 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | | 沪铜主力合约 | 昨日收盘价 78,680 | 日涨幅 0.25% | 昨日夜盘收盘价 78720 | 夜盘涨幅 0.05% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | - | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,727 | 0.65% | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持 ...

2025年06月26日 | 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 铝：高位震荡 | 4 | | 氧化铝：小幅反弹 | 4 | | 铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 4 | | 锌：区间调整 | 6 | | 铅：偏强运行 | 7 | | 镍：远端镍矿端预期松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 8 | | 不锈钢：供需边际双弱，钢价低位震荡 | 8 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 06 月 26 日 铜：库存持续回落，支撑价格 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 78,680 | 0.25% | 78720 | 0.05% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 9,727 | 0.65% | - | ...

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is narrowing down candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair, indicating a potential early announcement before Powell's term ends, expressing dissatisfaction with Powell's performance [1][3]. Candidate Overview - **Kevin Warsh**: A former Fed governor and advisor to President Bush, seen as a leading candidate. Warsh has a hawkish stance, prioritizing inflation concerns over employment. He has previously discussed the possibility of being nominated by Trump [4][5]. - **Scott Bessent**: The current Treasury Secretary, favored by Wall Street for his capabilities during policy implementation. Although he aims to complete his term, he has expressed interest in potentially becoming Fed Chair [6]. - **Christopher Waller**: A current Fed governor, considered a dark horse candidate. He has gained attention for advocating immediate interest rate cuts, indicating that the successor issue is influencing Fed policy discussions [7][8][9]. Powell's Position - Jerome Powell has reiterated his commitment to fulfilling his term, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a strong U.S. economy and controlled inflation. He has declined to comment on successor rumors, asserting that political factors will not influence Fed decisions [10][11].

鲍威尔：关税为一次性影响可能成为基本预期 美联储提议放宽针对大型银行的强化补充杠杆率要求 美住房监管主管：拟将加密货币当作房贷抵押品 男生普通话版 下载mp3 女声普通话版 下载mp3 粤语版 下载mp3 西南方言版 下载mp3 东北话版 下载mp3 上海话版 下载mp3 今日优选 特朗普：下周美方将与伊朗会谈，不认为核协议是有必要的 特朗普：将在三四人中选出下任美联储主席 消息人士：如果欧佩克认为有必要，俄罗斯愿意再次增产石油 英伟达市值创下历史新高，达到3.75万亿美元 香港金管局在市场买入94.20亿港元，因港元汇价触及弱方兑换保证 市场盘点 周三，因特朗普宣布下周美方将与伊朗会谈，避险情绪缓解，且市场普遍预期美联储将很快恢复其降息周期，美元指数最终收跌0.27%，报97.71点。基准的 10年期美债收益率收报4.2920%，2年期美债收益率收报3.7930%。 因市场等待美国GDP和PCE等数据，现货黄金维持震荡，盘中一度逼近3310美元，最终收涨0.30%，收报3333.46美元/盎司；现货白银最终收涨0.91%，报 36.24美元/盎司。 市场消息称，如果欧佩克+认定有必要，俄罗斯愿在即将于7月6 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：某个时候我们将会恢复降息。 ...

智通财经6月25日电，美联储主席鲍威尔称将来若达成贸易协议可能会让美联储可以考虑降息。 ...

金十数据整理：6月25日欧盘美盘重要新闻汇总 1. 李强出席2025年夏季达沃斯论坛工商界代表座谈会。 2. 何立峰在河北调研时指出，积极扩大内需提振消费，更好推动经济高质量发展。 3. 神舟二十号航天员乘组将于近日择机实施第二次出舱活动。 国内新闻： 1. 北约峰会期间特朗普会见泽连斯基。 2. 美国5月新屋销售跌至七个月低点。 3. 美股科技七巨头指数抹去2025年跌幅。 4. 以色列认为美以袭击对伊朗核设施造成"非常严重"的破坏。 5. 北约盟国同意提高国防开支目标至GDP的5%，重申集体防御承诺。 6. 美国交易所与监管机构就减轻上市公司监管负担进行讨论。 7. 美联储柯林斯：今年晚些时候可能降息，但取决于关税影响。 8. 哈塞特：若各国达成贸易协议，则可取消特朗普税收法案中的"报复税"。 国际新闻： 9. 特朗普：我们认为伊朗与以色列之间的战争已经结束。不会放弃对伊朗的制裁；没有必要与伊朗达成 协议；下周美方将与伊朗会谈。以色列-伊朗冲突可能会再次爆发。将与俄罗斯总统普京会谈，讨论结 束俄乌冲突事宜。 ...