Core Viewpoint - UBS indicates that Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole displayed a "classic Powell style," signaling an increased probability of a rate cut in September to counteract the drag from trade tariffs, but lacking a mid-term policy framework for an economy facing structural changes [1] Group 1 - The market welcomed the hints of a rate cut, but UBS believes the core message is essentially "data-dependent rhetoric wrapped in fancy language" [1] - UBS pointed out that Powell did not provide a stronger defense of the Federal Reserve's independence, which may lead to potential political influences from Trump on the Fed [1] Group 2 - Potential consequences of a politicized Federal Reserve include: 1) Reignition of inflation uncertainty 2) An increase in actual borrowing costs by an entire percentage point 3) Ripple effects on fiscal policy, corporate investment, housing affordability, household savings, and speculative activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank indicates a potential for interest rate cuts later this year if inflationary pressures subside as expected [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The Swedish central bank has maintained the key interest rate at 2.00% during the latest monetary policy meeting [1] - The next policy decision is scheduled for September 22 [1] - The central bank's governor, Teden, noted that while some indicators suggest economic activity may rise soon, there remains significant uncertainty [1] Group 2: Inflation Outlook - The central bank is open to further interest rate cuts due to favorable inflation prospects [1]

摘要8月26日欧洲交易时段，鲍威尔暗示9月降息，引发资本强势重配至金银领域。金价蹿升至3375美 元/盎司，逼近4月历史峰值；银价突破39美元，距14年高点咫尺之遥。受特朗普欲罢免美联储理事消息 影响，白银盘中下探至38.57美元。当前市场消化涨幅，技术面仍显多头优势。 8月26日欧洲交易时段，鲍威尔暗示9月降息，引发资本强势重配至金银领域。金价蹿升至3375美元/盎 司，逼近4月历史峰值；银价突破39美元，距14年高点咫尺之遥。受特朗普欲罢免美联储理事消息影 响，白银盘中下探至38.57美元。当前市场消化涨幅，技术面仍显多头优势。 【要闻速递】 "在唐纳德·特朗普总统解雇美联储理事丽莎·库克后，政治不确定性加剧，金价达到两周来的最高水平。 与此同时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周五暗示可能在 9 月降息，强调劳动力市场面临的风险日益增 加，但也指出通胀仍然是一个威胁，并且尚未最终做出任何决定，"信实证券高级研究分析师 Jigar Trivedi 表示。 从技术层面剖析，银价突破三角形趋势线上沿及38.00美元心理关口，意味着短期走势迎来重大转折， 印证了此前盘整多时的上涨行情将延续。动量指标尽显多头优势：RS ...

浦银国际研究 宏观洞察 | 宏观经济 月度美国宏观洞察：关税大致尘 埃落定，9 月剑指重启降息？ 特朗普关税政策更新——"新关税框架"已浮现，仍需关注行业关税和 中美谈判。虽然印度、瑞士、加拿大和墨西哥尚未与美国达成协议，但 是随着美国接连和日本和欧盟两大贸易伙伴达成协议，以及新关税税率 的公布，关税政策的不确定性显著下降。然而，我们并不认为关税风险 已经完全化解。接下来行业关税和中美贸易谈判将会是美国关税政策不 确定性的重点所在：首先，自特朗普今年上任以来，美国商务部启动的 "232 调查"数量显著增加。短期来说，芯片和药品的调查结果和潜在 关税加征的影响不容小觑。中期来看，我们不能排除有更多行业被卷入 "232 调查"的可能性，这将继续牵动市场对关税问题的担忧，尽管整 体风险或已显著小于此前对"对等关税"全部实施的担忧。其次，中美 关税谈判或仍存在变数。中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明的公布过程 较为曲折。 美国经济数据回顾——7 月通胀略微回升但符合预期；实体经济数据喜 忧参半。美国核心 CPI 通胀率 7 月微升。关税对商品价格的影响正在逐 渐显露，不过相对 6 月数据并未显著增强。7 月数据最为惹眼的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates in September, but the future path of rate cuts remains unclear [1] Currency Analysis - The US dollar is expected to maintain a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term [1] - The euro lacks supporting factors for independent strength and is anticipated to remain in a high-level fluctuation [1] - Interest rate differentials are expected to support the Japanese yen, which is likely to continue a weak fluctuation trend [1]

#报告 TS Lombard：警惕1995年美国降息情况的重现。None (@None):None ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices experienced a strong rebound after a brief adjustment, with a notable increase of $35, but faced a subsequent pullback, indicating a volatile trading environment around the $3400 mark [1][10]. Market Trends - Gold saw a minor adjustment of only $15 yesterday, followed by a V-shaped recovery today [3]. - The price surged to $3386 before retreating, suggesting a potential resistance level [4]. - Current focus is on the adjustment and rebound opportunities, particularly around the $3378 level [5]. - A breakthrough above previous highs indicates a target towards the $3400 resistance [6]. Support and Resistance Levels - The market is currently testing the $3378 resistance level, with potential support seen at $3350 [7][8]. - If the price continues to decline, a drop below $3350 could occur [9]. - The overall trend shows a four-month increase followed by a four-month consolidation phase, with the price oscillating around the $3300-$3400 range [10]. Economic Influences - Recent positive U.S. economic data, particularly in housing, has raised inflation expectations, impacting gold prices negatively [11]. - Political pressures from former President Trump on the Federal Reserve have also influenced market dynamics, contributing to gold's volatility [12]. - Upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and consumer confidence, are expected to impact both the stock market and gold prices [13]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on entry and exit points to maximize profits, emphasizing the importance of experience and risk management [13]. - A successful trading strategy involves following experienced traders to achieve higher accuracy and lower risk [13].

今日早间，特朗普突然宣布罢免美联储理事库克且即刻生效，消息一出，黄金自3350附近迅猛上扬，一度冲击至3386附近。此前美 联储主席鲍威尔已强烈暗示9月降息，如今"懂王"又有新动作，降息可谓获双重助力。回顾昨日，黄金亚盘小幅回踩3360后企稳反 弹，欧盘震荡上行至3370承压，美盘延续反弹至3376后回落。当前，日线收十字星，短线有反弹迹象，4H周期慢牛震荡，早盘探底 回升后，仍处区间震荡，尚需时间蓄力，目前上方阻力在3384-3385，下方支撑在3365-3363一线，午间操作上徐老师建议反弹3383 空，损3391，目标3370-3365。 别再自我怀疑与退缩啦！你有着无限的潜力等待挖掘，那些看似跨不过去的坎，只是成功路上的小小考验。每一次努力都是在为未 来积攒力量，每一滴汗水都在浇灌梦想之花。或许现在结果不尽人意，但别灰心，这只是暂时的。失败是成长的阶梯，它能让你变 得更强大。大胆地向前冲，勇敢去尝试新事物，别害怕犯错。你要坚信，自己就是那颗独一无二、闪闪发光的星星。只要坚持不 懈，终有一天，你会站在梦想的巅峰，俯瞰曾经走过的路，为自己骄傲！ ...

Investment Highlights - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's dovish stance at the Jackson Hole conference suggests a potential adjustment in policy due to employment growth risks, with a significant increase in the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [2][4] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with COMEX gold rising by 1.05% and silver by 2.26% following the dovish signals and increased ETF inflows [2][5] - Copper prices are experiencing high volatility, with a 0.50% increase, supported by expectations of preventive rate cuts and the end of the consumption off-season [2][3] Sector Analysis - Aluminum prices are focused on inventory depletion during the peak demand season, with a decrease of 8,872 tons in electrolytic aluminum inventory, indicating strong seasonal stocking behavior [3] - Tungsten prices continue to rise, driven by increased quotes from major tungsten companies and a 34.1% month-over-month increase in exports, indicating improving overseas demand [3][4] - Cobalt prices are steadily increasing due to seasonal demand and U.S. Department of Defense plans to purchase 7,500 tons of cobalt for strategic reserves, marking the first procurement since 1990 [4] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include Zhaojin Mining, Xinyi Silver, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shenhuo Co., and Zijin Mining [5]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a potential interest rate cut in September to support a struggling labor market while preventing runaway inflation [1][2] - The current labor market is described as a "weird balance," with increasing concerns about employment prospects despite stable unemployment rates [1] - Economists believe that a 25 basis point rate cut may not drastically change the economic trajectory but could positively impact market confidence [1][2] Group 2 - Revised employment data shows that the U.S. economy has added an average of only 35,000 jobs per month since June, significantly below the projected 168,000 for 2024 [2] - The dual mandate of the Federal Reserve to control inflation and maintain a healthy job market is complicated by the White House's decision to impose tariffs on imported goods [2] - Powell's recent statements indicate a shift in focus towards urgent support for the labor market, despite previous indications to prioritize inflation control [2] Group 3 - Future interest rate cuts in 2025 and 2026 will depend on changes in the unemployment rate over the coming months [3] - Powell maintains that rate cuts are not intended to stimulate the economy, as the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% remains above normal economic cycle levels [3]