刚需采买及补库，现货升水涨至1000元/吨，社会库存下降明显。技术面，持仓减量低位回升，关注MA10 免责声明 阻力。操作上，建议暂时观望，或短线轻仓做多。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | | | 沪锡产业日报 2025-06-05 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | 258900 | 960 7月-8月合约收盘价:沪锡(日,元/吨) | -100 | -220 | | | LME3个月锡(日,美元/吨) | 31895 | 445 主力合约持仓量:沪锡(日,手) | 27843 | -3165 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:沪锡(日,手) | 5209 | 185 LME锡:总库存(日,吨) | 2605 | 0 | | | 上期所库存:锡(周,吨) | 8107 | -338 LME锡:注销仓单(日,吨) | 605 | -10 | | | 上 ...

2025年06月05日 星期四 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日铜价震荡偏强运行。基本面：美国 ADP 新增就业不及预期，特朗普喊话鲍威尔降息，称要取 | | | | | | | | | 消美国债务上限。美元走弱，金属整体获得一定支撑。供给端铜矿紧张格局延续，需求端华东华南平水铜现 | | | | | | | | 铜 | 80 120 1450 货升水 元和贴水 元成交，华南现货走弱明显。精废价差 元附近。交易策略：在美元偏弱情况下， | | | | | | | | | 以震荡偏强运行对待。风险提示：全球流动性冲击，全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 2507 合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.08%，收于 20075 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差 410 元/吨， | | | | | | | | | LME 价格 2484 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电 ...

6 月 5 日山东德州报价 2.7 元/斤，较上日稳定；北京报价 3.02 元/斤，较上 日稳定。短期端午节后需求转弱，叠加梅雨季来临，鸡蛋容易发生质量问 题，渠道及下游采购心态偏弱，蛋价支撑有限，不过近期淘汰有所加速，一 定程度缓解供应压力，各环节库存有所消化，关注蛋价跌至低位后冷库入库 积极性。中期来看，25 年 3-4 月补栏量依旧较高，对应 25 年 7-8 月新开 产蛋鸡较多，养殖企业经过前期利润积累，抗风险能力增强，产能出清或需 要时间，整体高补苗量下，远期供应增势或难逆转，关注近端淘汰情况。长 期来看，经过上半年养殖利润不佳传导，养殖端补苗积极性有所下滑，四季 度新开产或环比减少，关注三季度淘汰及鸡病情况。短期节后需求转弱，蛋 价支撑不足，三季度供需双增，蛋价反弹承压，四季度供应压力或有所缓 解，关注近端淘汰及鸡病情况。策略建议：07 进入 6 月后限仓，观望为 主，关注 3020-3060 压力表现；08、09 大逻辑偏空对待，养殖企业等待反 弹逢高套保，08 关注 3750-3800 压力，关注饲料端及淘汰扰动；10 关注 逢低多机会。关注淘鸡、鸡病、天气等因素（数据来源：蛋 e 网、同花顺 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ☆☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ☆☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Natural rubber: ★☆☆ [1] - Butadiene rubber: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market situation of various soft commodities is complex, with different influencing factors for each. Overall, it is recommended to wait and see for most commodities, while for some, there are specific trading opportunities such as the potential for pulp to go long on significant dips and the possibility of a rebound in rubber [2][3][6][7] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose slightly today, with overall commodity rebound in the afternoon. Cotton spot trading was average, and the basis was stable and slightly stronger. Pure - cotton yarn enterprises sold at market prices, and market confidence was insufficient. Downstream startup declined slowly, and finished - product inventory increased. Cotton spot prices were firm, and high - quality resources decreased, leading to an expected tight inventory. The Sino - US negotiation was not smooth. US cotton planting progress was slow, with a planting rate of 66% as of June 1, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 points slower than the five - year average. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The focus of the international market is on Brazilian sugar production, with a relatively bearish supply expectation. In the Northern Hemisphere, expected above - average rainfall in Thailand in the third quarter is beneficial for sugarcane growth. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Due to the continuous decline of US sugar, the sugar import profit rebounded, and the import volume is expected to increase. The market's trading focus shifted to consumption and imports. Domestic sugar sales were good, which was beneficial for prices, and the import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly. However, the downward trend of US sugar limited the upside of Zhengzhou sugar, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. In Shandong, market sales were slow, and merchants were cautious in purchasing. In Shaanxi, there was little remaining inventory in cold storage, mainly in northern Shaanxi. Cold - storage owners were more willing to sell, and transactions increased slightly. The market's trading focus shifted to the new - season output estimate. The western production areas were affected by high temperatures and windy weather during the flowering period, which may affect fruit - setting rate and quality. However, the overall flower quantity was sufficient, and there were different estimates of the output. It is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural rubber & Synthetic rubber - Rubber (RU&NR&BR) fluctuated strongly today. The domestic new - energy vehicle countryside campaign improved market sentiment. The domestic natural rubber spot price was stable with a slight decline, and the external butadiene export price was stable. The global natural rubber supply entered the growth period, and major domestic and foreign production areas were fully tapped. The domestic butadiene rubber plant operating rate dropped significantly last week, with some plants under maintenance or reduced load, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate rebounded slightly. The domestic all - steel tire operating rate declined slightly, and the semi - steel tire operating rate rebounded slightly. Tire inventory decreased, and some tire enterprises had holidays during the Dragon Boat Festival. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao dropped to 610,000 tons, and the domestic butadiene port inventory increased slightly to 285,000 tons. The downstream demand weakened, natural rubber supply increased, synthetic rubber supply decreased, spot inventory increased, cost support strengthened, and there were favorable policies. The strategy is to bet on a rebound after over - selling [6] Pulp - Pulp futures declined slightly today. The spot price of Shandong Yinxing was 6,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Hebei U - needle and B - needle was 5,320 yuan/ton; the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing was 4,100 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. As of May 29, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.161 million tons, a cumulative increase of 4,000 tons from the previous period, a 0.2% month - on - month increase. The domestic port inventory was relatively high year - on - year, and pulp demand was still weak. The import volume may decline. Pulp valuation was low, and there was strong support near the previous low. It is recommended to wait and see or try to go long on significant dips [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. Regarding supply, the external price of radiata pine continued to decline, and the production willingness of external suppliers increased. It is expected that the domestic arrival volume of radiata pine in June will be low. In terms of demand, the daily average outbound volume of ports remained above 60,000 cubic meters after entering the off - season, showing relatively good demand. As of May 30, the total national port log inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 cubic meters. Among them, the radiata pine inventory was 2.79 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 cubic meters. The national log inventory continued to be destocked. The radiata pine log inventory also started to be destocked last week, reducing inventory pressure. Overall, due to poor profits, the shipping volume of New Zealand logs will remain low, which is beneficial for the supply side. However, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see [8]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 对二甲苯：估值高位，反套 PTA：供增需减，反套 MEG：多 PTA 空 MEG 逢高离场 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 对二甲苯、PTA、MEG 基本面数据 | 日 期 | P X主力收盘 | P T A主力收盘 | M E G主力收盘 | P F主力收盘 | S C主力收盘 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025-06-03 | 6524 | 4628 | 4306 | 6338 | 3466 | | 2025-05-30 | 6618 | 4700 | 4349 | 6384 | 3428 | | 2025-05-29 | 6788 | 4814 | 4359 | 6500 | 3558 | | 2025-05-28 | 6590 | 4672 | 4311 | 6386 | 3469 | | 2025-05-27 | 6706 | 4740 | 4387 | 6456 | 3512 | | 日度变化 | -1.4% | ...

2025年06月04日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：需求预期羸弱，价格面临下行风险 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪拖累，弱势延续 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪拖累，弱势延续 | 3 | | 硅铁：底部持续下探，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：矿端继续承压，弱势震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：震荡偏弱 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 4 日 铁矿石：需求预期羸弱，价格面临下行风险 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 张广硕 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

Report Overview - The report is about the egg market on June 4, 2025, provided by Guotai Junan Futures [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The report presents the latest data on egg fundamentals and the industrial chain, but no clear core view is explicitly stated [1] Summary by Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2507 is 2,897 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and trading volume decreased by 21,187 and open interest decreased by 8,968. The closing price of egg2509 is 3,722 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decline of 0.80%, and trading volume increased by 3,141 and open interest increased by 1,374 [1] - **Spread Data**: The egg 7 - 8 spread is -676 (previous day: -680), and the egg 7 - 9 spread is -825 (previous day: -819) [1] - **Spot Price Data**: The latest spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 2.90 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 2.90 yuan/jin, and 3.02 yuan/jin respectively. The previous day's prices were 2.95 yuan/jin, 2.58 yuan/jin, 3.00 yuan/jin, and 2.96 yuan/jin respectively [1] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The latest corn spot price is 2,316 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day), the latest soybean meal spot price is 2,900 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton from the previous day), and the latest Henan pig price is 14.35 yuan/kg (down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day) [1] 2. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, where -2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [1]

2025 年 6 月 4 日 沥青：原油反弹，短线震荡 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi023726@gtjas.com 图 1：BU-SC 扩张后高位震荡 图 2：华南增仓后持稳 -1500 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 1500 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 BU-SC 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 资料来源：同花顺 iFinD，国泰君安期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Report Overview - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Wang Rong, Liu Yuxuan [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the Russia-Ukraine conflict flared up again, leading to a rebound in gold prices, and silver followed suit [1] - The trend strength for both gold and silver is 2, indicating a bullish outlook [5] Summary by Section 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices and Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508昨日收盘价783.10，日涨幅1.46%，夜盘收盘价782.08，夜盘跌幅0.46%；Comex黄金2508昨日收盘价3313.10，跌幅0.88%等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日收盘价8456，日涨幅2.89%，夜盘收盘价8476.00，夜盘涨幅0.20%；Comex白银2508昨日收盘价33.075，跌幅1.09%等 [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: - Gold:沪金2508合约对2512合约价差昨日成交131,022，较前日减少104,991；Comex黄金2508昨日成交182,769，较前日减少42,281等 [2] - Silver:沪银2508昨日成交547,586，较前日减少110,657；Comex白银2508昨日成交40,787，较前日减少8,748等 [2] - **ETF and Inventory Changes**: - Gold: SPDR黄金ETF持仓昨日为933.07，较前日增加3；Comex黄金（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为38,349,605，较前日减少439,589 [2] - Silver: SLV白银ETF持仓（前天）为14,351.82，较前日增加48；Comex白银（金衡盎司）（前日）库存为495,395,012，较前日减少612,969 [2] - **Price Spreads**: - Gold:黄金T+D对AU2506价差昨日为 -4.98，较前日无变动；沪金2506合约对2512合约价差昨日为5.22，较前日减少0.36等 [2] - Silver:白银T+D对AG2506价差昨日为26，较前日增加4；沪银2502合约对2504合约价差昨日为49，较前日减少10等 [2] - **Exchange Rates**: - 欧元兑美元昨日为1.14，较前日增加0.01；美元兑日元昨日为142.78，较前日增加0.05等 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - Trade winds affected the US stock market, with the S&P 500 index having a V-shaped reversal. The US dollar fell to a nearly three-year low, gold rose nearly 3% in the futures market, and US crude oil rose over 5% [4] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the China-US Geneva economic and trade talks, and China's Ministry of Commerce firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation [6] - The EU warned the US before the negotiation that if the negotiation fails, countermeasures will take effect by July 14 at the latest [6] - The Trump administration asked the appellate court for help due to the受阻推进 of tariff policies. The US Commerce Secretary said the president has the right to take other actions even if the tariff policy is cancelled [6] - The US May ISM manufacturing index contracted for three consecutive months, and the import index hit a 16-year low [6] - Fed governor Waller said there is no evidence of long-term inflation rising and still expects a rate cut later this year [6] - Trump said the US does not allow Iran to conduct any uranium enrichment activities [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views Overall The report analyzes various commodities in the breeding, livestock, soft commodities, and energy - chemical sectors, providing supply - demand analysis, price trend predictions, and investment strategies for each commodity. [1][6] Livestock and Soft Commodities - **Pig**: The supply of pigs is sufficient, and the speculative demand may support the pig price at the bottom. It is not recommended for farmers to short at present. Speculative clients can go long, and farmers are advised to sell at high prices. [1][2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar follows the weak oscillation of raw sugar. In the medium - long term, the main producing countries have an expected increase in production, presenting a near - strong and far - weak pattern. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. [4][5] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: With OPEC+ increasing production and geopolitical uncertainties, the short - term oil price is supported, but it is under pressure in the medium - term. It is recommended to sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [6][7] - **PVC**: The supply of PVC is increasing, while the demand is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling in the short - term, but the driving force for a significant increase is limited. It is recommended to close out short positions. [10][11] Summary by Commodity Pig - **Supply**: As of April 2025, the national sow inventory was 40.38 million, with a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase in May, and the supply of pigs is sufficient. [1] - **Demand**: The frozen product storage rate is at a historical low, and the demand is weak. The speculative demand may increase if the price drops, which will support the pig price. [2] - **Strategy**: Do not short for farmers; speculators can go long; farmers can sell at high prices. [2] Sugar - **International**: In the 2025/26 season, Brazil's production is affected by rainfall, while India and Thailand are expected to increase production, and the global sugar production is expected to increase by 8.6 million tons to 189.3 million tons. [4] - **Domestic**: The sales progress is accelerating, and the import is expected to increase. The short - term sugar price will be range - bound, and the long - term is in a near - strong and far - weak pattern. [5] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money call options. [5] Crude Oil - **Supply**: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July. The US shale oil production is limited, and the heavy - oil resources are tight. [6] - **Demand**: The demand from refineries is increasing, but the diesel market is not optimistic. The SPR demand of major oil - consuming countries is increasing. [8] - **Inventory**: The US commercial crude oil inventory has decreased, and the global oil inventory is expected to remain low in the second quarter. [8] - **Strategy**: Sell out - of - the money put options for SC2507. [7] PVC - **Cost**: The calcium carbide price in Inner Mongolia is stable, and the inventory is accumulating. [10] - **Supply**: The operating rate is increasing, and there will be new device production in June - July. [10] - **Demand**: The downstream stocking sentiment is weak, and the export has uncertainties. [11] - **Inventory**: The industry is in a state of destocking. [11] - **Strategy**: Close out short positions. [10]