Group 1 - The index is expected to consolidate and gather strength before reaching new highs, with the recent tariff delay being fully priced in by the market, leading to a rise in major indices, including the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a high of 3555.22 points [3][14] - The market's optimistic sentiment is currently prevailing, but there is insufficient risk pricing for potential negative surprises regarding tariffs, which may hinder further declines in risk evaluation [3][14] - The market's recent rise is primarily driven by an increase in risk appetite, with the ChiNext Index, CSI 1000 Index, and All A Index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [4][15] Group 2 - Short-term themes are expected to rotate between policy expectations and industrial trends, with a focus on the "anti-involution" sector and real estate, which has seen a 6.1% increase this week due to anticipated policy developments [6][16] - The "anti-involution" sector, particularly in steel, pork, and certain segments of new energy, is highlighted as a potential area of focus due to high policy expectations following recent government meetings [6][16] - The trading of industrial trends is expected to continue, with short-term attention on sectors such as stablecoins, rare earths, nuclear fusion, military industry, deep-sea economy, artificial intelligence, and innovative pharmaceuticals [7][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for treasury bonds is "oscillation" [6] 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, risk appetite has rebounded, but in the long - term, the bond market is still bullish. Although the recent trend of treasury bonds is relatively weak, the logic of activities like "transfer trade" is not sustainable. The long - term fundamental situation remains unchanged. Once risk appetite starts to decline and there are incremental positive factors, the bond market will strengthen non - linearly. Therefore, it is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [2][14][16] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From July 7th to July 13th, treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. On Monday, with a calm market news and slightly tightened funding, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and the 30Y interest rate rose slightly due to the news of ultra - long special treasury bond issuance. On Tuesday, as trade conflict intensity was within market expectations, rising certificate of deposit (CD) rates and a strong stock market led to an oscillating decline in treasury bond futures. On Wednesday, the stock market weakened while long - term treasury bond futures strengthened, and the short - term ones were relatively weak with a flattening yield curve. On Thursday, the market sentiment improved marginally in the morning but then the stock market soared, causing the bond market to weaken. In the afternoon, the expectation of real - estate stabilizing policies led to a plunge in treasury bond futures. On Friday, with balanced funding, the bond market fluctuated with the stock market. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend [1][12] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market is still difficult to strengthen next week. With the arrival of the tax period, the funding will marginally tighten, and the expected strong economic data in June and high risk appetite will suppress the bond market. However, in the long - run, it is advisable to lay out medium - term long positions on dips. Strategies include holding long positions, paying attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in treasury bond futures, and stopping profit on the strategy of steepening the yield curve first and then looking for new opportunities [2][14][15][16] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Rate Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - rate bonds were issued with a total issuance of 69 billion yuan and a net financing of 46.2369 billion yuan, up 17.6781 billion and 8.579 billion yuan respectively from last week. 45 local government bonds were issued with a total issuance of 23.179 billion yuan and a net financing of 11.0229 billion yuan, up 15.9651 billion and 8.858 billion yuan respectively. 454 CDs were issued with a total issuance of 42.713 billion yuan and a net financing of - 8.339 billion yuan, up 18.416 billion and down 8.057 billion yuan respectively [20] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - Treasury bond yields rose. As of July 11th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.40%, 1.53%, 1.66%, and 1.87% respectively, up 4.28, 3.41, 2.05, and 1.95 basis points from last weekend. The 10Y - 1Y, 10Y - 5Y, and 30Y - 10Y spreads narrowed. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.50%, 1.61%, and 1.71% respectively, up 5.03, 4.51, and 3.13 basis points from last weekend [30] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - Treasury bond futures oscillated and adjusted. As of July 11th, the settlement prices of the main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.412, 105.975, 108.815, and 120.510 yuan respectively, down 0.096, 0.275, 0.295, and 0.690 yuan from last weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 38,238, 66,066, 72,274, and 98,226 lots respectively, up 7,022, 7,450, 1,993, and 16,442 lots from last weekend. The open interests were 124,636, 202,629, 244,640, and 150,356 lots respectively, with changes of - 673, + 9,156, + 4,737, and + 6,317 lots from last weekend [38][43] 3.3.2 Basis and Implied Repo Rate (IRR) - Positive arbitrage opportunities were not obvious this week. With balanced and loose funding, the basis of futures oscillated narrowly. The IRR of the cheapest - to - deliver (CTD) bonds of each main contract was around 1.8%, and the current CD rate was slightly higher than 1.6%, resulting in relatively few positive arbitrage opportunities [48] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of July 11th, the inter - delivery spreads of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures between the 2509 and 2512 contracts were - 0.100, - 0.105, - 0.040, and + 0.180 yuan respectively, with changes of + 0.024, - 0.020, + 0.045, and + 0.050 yuan from last weekend. The far - term contracts adjusted more this week [53] 3.4 Weekly Observation of Funding - The central bank net - withdrew 22.65 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations this week. As of July 11th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.51%, 1.47%, 1.33%, and 1.48% respectively, up 0.86, 0.58, 2.80, and 5.20 basis points from last weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase was 8.21 trillion yuan, up 0.61 trillion yuan from last week, and the overnight proportion was 89.57%, slightly lower than last week [57][60][63] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose slightly. As of July 11th, the US dollar index rose 0.91% to 97.8731 from last weekend, the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.43%, up 8 basis points from last weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10Y treasury bonds was inverted by 276.7 basis points [67] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - Industrial product prices rose this week. As of July 11th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3,612.73, 6,281.86, and 1,679.68 points respectively, up 55.22, 65.52, and 29.21 points from last weekend. Agricultural product prices also rose, with the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits at 20.60, 4.42, and 7.45 yuan/kg respectively, up 0.02, 0.08, and 0.15 yuan/kg from last weekend [70] 3.7 Investment Suggestions - It is recommended to lay out medium - term long positions on dips [71]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's announcement of a 35% tariff on goods imported from Canada, effective August 1, has escalated trade threats and caused significant global market reactions, including declines in stock indices and a stronger US dollar [1][2]. Market Reactions - European stock indices opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.4%, and the German DAX down 0.5%, reflecting investor concerns over the potential for increased tariffs [2][3]. - The US dollar index rose by 0.2%, while the Japanese yen fell, becoming the worst-performing currency among G10 currencies [1][3][6]. - Bitcoin continued its upward trend, surpassing $118,000, marking a new historical high [1][3][13]. Economic Impact - The new tariff rate of 35% is higher than the current 25% tariff on Canadian imports not covered by the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) [2]. - The UK economy contracted by 0.1% in May, marking the second consecutive month of negative growth, which is below economists' expectations of a 0.1% increase [2]. - Emerging market currencies in Asia, such as the Indian rupee and Malaysian ringgit, faced pressure against the US dollar [2][9]. Commodity Performance - Gold prices stabilized above $3,335 per ounce after two days of increases, while silver rose over 1% to $37.38 per ounce [3][10]. - Gold has increased by over 25% this year, supported by geopolitical tensions and central bank purchases [13].

Group 1 - The recent stock market rebound led by Nvidia has driven Bitcoin prices to briefly surpass $112,000, marking a historical high before a slight retreat [2] - Nvidia became the first company to briefly exceed a market capitalization of $4 trillion, contributing to the rise in tech stocks and the Nasdaq index reaching a new all-time high [2] - Despite the influx of billions into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), Bitcoin has only increased by 2% over the past month, indicating a period of narrow fluctuations [2] Group 2 - The sustainability of Bitcoin's price increase largely depends on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade, particularly in light of the upcoming August 1 trade agreement deadline [3] - A potential trade agreement progress and lower inflation data could support a continued rise in Bitcoin prices, as indicated by the recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes suggesting a favorable environment for interest rate cuts [3] - A weaker dollar has also provided support for Bitcoin, as it is primarily priced in dollars [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The 50 - year treasury bond has performed well recently, with the spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds continuously narrowing. The current 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression and limited adjustment pressure [1][4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Performance of 50 - year Treasury Bonds - The 50 - year treasury bond has become an increasingly important trading variety in the low - coupon period. The spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds decreased from 15.6bps on June 16th to 8.4bps on July 4th, a cumulative decrease of 7.2bps, and is now below the 2023 average. The current stock of 50 - year treasury bonds has reached 1.3 trillion, making it a significant investment variety [1][7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the 50 - 30 Year Treasury Bond Spread - **Fundamentals**: Fundamental indicators such as PMI, CPI, and PPI have no significant correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread in recent years, indicating that fundamentals have little explanatory power for this spread, which mainly reflects asset attribute differences [1][10]. - **Turnover Rate**: Since 2023, the turnover rate of ultra - long bonds has increased significantly. In June this year, the monthly turnover rate of 50 - year treasury bonds reached 7.5%, exceeding that of 30 - year treasury bonds. There is a certain correlation between the difference in turnover rates of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds and the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. As the liquidity of 50 - year treasury bonds improves, the liquidity premium decreases, leading to a trend compression of the spread [2][12]. - **Stock Market Risk Preference**: The risk preference reflected by the stock market has a certain positive correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. Historically, the spread between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds has a certain positive correlation with the Wind All - A Index, suggesting that 30 - year treasury bonds can better represent market risk preference. However, it remains to be seen whether this relationship will change as the liquidity of 50 - year treasury bonds improves [2][16]. - **Funding Price and Bond Supply**: There is a certain negative correlation between the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread and R007, indicating that the funding price has an impact on the curve slope, but the overall correlation is not significant. The net financing of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds and their difference have a weak correlation with the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread, but they have had a strong impact on the spread since last year [3][18]. 3.3 Quantitative Pricing Model - A quantitative pricing model was constructed using the monthly average of R007, the monthly net financing difference between 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, the monthly average turnover rate difference between 30 - year and 50 - year treasury bonds, and the Wind All - A Index as explanatory variables to explain the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread. The regression results show that the model has relatively strong explanatory power, and all four variables can strongly explain the ultra - long bond term spread [3][20]. 3.4 Current Situation and Outlook of the 50 - 30 Year Treasury Bond Spread - The June fitting value of the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread was 4.9bp, slightly lower than the current 8.4bps. Assuming that the turnover rates of 50 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are at the average of the past two months, R007 is at 1.5%, the stock index remains at the current level, and net financing is calculated according to the bond issuance plan, the fitting value of the 50 - 30 year treasury bond spread in the next few months will be around 7.4bps, close to the current spread. Therefore, the current 50 - 30 year spread is at a neutral level, with limited room for further compression and limited adjustment risk in a context of continuous liquidity easing and active trading of 50 - year treasury bonds [4][23].

Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares reached a new high in 2025, while U.S. stocks hit historical highs, indicating a synchronized upward trend[3] - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 5.9% from April to July 2025, while the S&P 500 rose by 16.1% during the same period[12] - Historical instances of synchronized rises between Chinese and U.S. markets include periods from January to April 2019, March 2020 to February 2021, October 2022 to April 2023, and April 2025 to July 2025[4] Group 2: Economic Drivers - The stock market's rise is driven by three main factors: interest rates, risk appetite, and profit growth[3] - Monetary easing expectations have led to a decrease in interest rates, which supports stock market growth[3] - The U.S. dollar's depreciation is beneficial for liquidity and market expectations, impacting non-U.S. assets positively[3] Group 3: Historical Context - The synchronized rises often follow significant events that lead to improved market sentiment and valuation expectations[4] - The period from January to April 2019 saw a 24.9% increase in the Shanghai Composite Index, driven by easing trade tensions and monetary policy shifts[12] - The period from March 2020 to February 2021 experienced a 46.4% increase in the S&P 500, supported by aggressive policy measures amid the pandemic[12] Group 4: Future Outlook - Trade uncertainty is expected to decrease, which may stabilize market volatility but could also introduce new fluctuations[6] - Short-term economic fundamentals in both countries are unlikely to drive stock market growth, with a focus on policy expectations instead[7] - The anticipated monetary easing in both the U.S. and China is expected to support market confidence until actual policy changes are implemented[7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of understanding personal financial stability and cash flow before making investment decisions, suggesting that one's ability to endure market fluctuations is closely tied to their income stability and lifestyle [2][3][21]. Group 1: Self-Analysis in Investment - Investment should start from personal financial circumstances, including monthly income, savings, and lifestyle, rather than solely from valuation assessments [3][4]. - The concept of "margin of safety" extends beyond market valuations to include the stability of one's life and cash flow during downturns [3][4]. - Understanding income stability, current income levels, and income growth potential is crucial for determining true risk tolerance [4][5][6]. Group 2: Recognizing Occupational Characteristics - Investors can be categorized based on cash flow structure and psychological traits, which helps in identifying suitable investment strategies [8][9]. - Four types of investors are identified: 1. **High-pressure rigid income earners**: Stable income, can withstand market fluctuations, recommended to adopt a 60:40 stock-bond structure [10][11]. 2. **High-income growth types**: High income but high volatility, should focus on risk management rather than aggressive growth, suggested to consider a balanced stock-bond structure [12][13]. 3. **Uncertain income earners**: Income instability leads to emotional and financial stress, advised to adopt a defensive investment strategy with a 30:70 stock-bond structure [14][15][16]. 4. **Family breadwinners**: Low risk tolerance, need for financial security, recommended to focus on stable investments with a 20:80 or lower risk structure [17][18]. Group 3: Maintaining Stability in Investment and Life - The key to successful investing is not just in selecting assets but in maintaining stability in cash flow and emotional resilience during market downturns [20][21]. - Adjusting risk tolerance is about ensuring longevity in investment rather than merely seeking higher returns [22][23]. - Understanding personal financial conditions and having a buffer for emergencies is essential for enduring market volatility [23][24].

Core Viewpoint - The global foreign exchange market has experienced a significant reshuffling, driven by a notable recovery in market risk appetite, as the US dollar continues its weak performance in 2025, with a cumulative decline of approximately 10% in the first half of the year, marking the worst performance since 1973 [1][2]. Group 1: US Dollar Performance - The US dollar index closed at 97.04 on July 4, 2025, with a decline of 0.08%, remaining at near historical lows [1]. - The labor market showed resilience with 147,000 new non-farm jobs added in June, surpassing the market expectation of 110,000, and the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% [1]. - Goldman Sachs now anticipates the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in September, earlier than the previously expected December, adding pressure on the dollar [1]. Group 2: Performance of Non-USD Currencies - The euro traded around 1.17 against the dollar, closing at 1.1766 with a gain of 0.11%, supported by rising inflation in the Eurozone reaching the European Central Bank's target of 2% [2]. - The Chinese yuan showed relative stability, with the midpoint rate fluctuating within a reasonable range, reflecting the People's Bank of China's efforts to maintain adequate liquidity [2]. - The British pound remained relatively high despite some fluctuations, indicating cautious optimism regarding the UK economy [2]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment Changes - A significant easing of geopolitical tensions, particularly a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, has reduced market risk aversion, impacting demand for traditional safe-haven currencies like the dollar and yen [2]. - The Japanese yen's performance is mixed, facing pressure from reduced safe-haven demand while also being supported by expectations of potential adjustments to the Bank of Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy [3]. - The return of a "risk-on" mode has led to a general rise in stock markets and positively influenced the foreign exchange market, with commodity currencies like the Australian and Canadian dollars showing notable performance [3].

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The expiration of the tariff suspension period has cooled global risk appetite. The US tax - cut bill has been passed, and countries face pressure to reach trade agreements with the US, leading to a slight decline in the US dollar index. In China, the PMI data in June continued to rise, and domestic consumption policies and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and the appreciation of the RMB have also improved market sentiment [2]. - The overall view on asset classes is that the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, with cautious long positions recommended; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious observation recommended; in the commodity sector, black metals are expected to rebound from low - level fluctuations, with cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate strongly, with cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are expected to fluctuate, with cautious observation; precious metals are expected to fluctuate at a high level, with cautious long positions [2]. Group 2: Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as cross - border payment, gaming, and banking, the domestic stock market continued to rise. The recovery of China's June PMI data, strengthened domestic consumption policies, and the "anti - involution" emphasis have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term recovery of foreign markets and RMB appreciation have also improved market sentiment. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and trade negotiation progress. Short - term macro - upward momentum has increased. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Group 3: Precious Metals - The precious metals market oscillated last week. With the Middle - East cease - fire agreement, the focus shifted to the Russia - Ukraine war, and overall risk cooled in the short term. The approaching tariff deadline and the US - Vietnam agreement have increased optimistic tariff expectations. However, trade negotiations between the US and other countries are still ongoing. The better - than - expected non - farm data has cooled the expectation of interest - rate cuts, and the rebound of US bond yields has suppressed gold prices. The "Big Beautiful Act" will increase debt pressure, providing long - term support for gold. The tariff negotiation situation will be the main short - term influencing factor, and the volatility of gold is expected to rise in the short term [5]. Group 4: Black Metals Steel - The domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly last Friday, but trading volume remained low. Overseas, tariff policies need attention; domestically, the "anti - involution" policy is a factor. The news of Tangshan's production restrictions led to a rebound in the futures market, increasing speculative demand, but the off - season still affected terminal demand. On the supply side, the impact of production - restriction policies emerged, with a 1.44 - million - ton week - on - week decline in hot - metal production, while the output of finished products still increased slightly. Cost support remained strong. The steel market is expected to be strong in the short term [6]. Iron Ore - The spot price of iron ore was flat last Friday, and the futures price rebounded slightly. Hot - metal production decreased by 1.44 million tons last week after two consecutive weeks of rebound, indicating the effect of production - restriction policies. The implementation of production - restriction policies needs further attention. In terms of supply, the shipping volume decreased by 149 million tons week - on - week, and the arrival volume increased by 178 million tons. Although the second and third quarters are the peak shipping seasons, the shipping volume may decline after the end - of - quarter rush. The port inventory increased by 46.67 million tons. Iron ore is expected to be strong in the short term due to macro factors but may decline in the medium term [6]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat last Friday. The output of five major steel products increased, and the demand for ferroalloys was fair. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market was 5480 - 5530 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5500 - 5550 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded slightly, driving up the spot price of manganese ore. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises increased by 1.13% to 40.34%, and the daily output increased by 125 tons. The inventory of silicon iron enterprises is being depleted slowly, and prices are expected to adjust narrowly in the short term. The silicon iron and silicon manganese markets are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7][8]. Group 5: Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Tariff news is uncertain. Although Trump threatened higher tariffs, it may be a negotiation strategy. The US is likely to impose at least a 10% tariff in the long run. The non - farm data was better than expected, but the private - sector employment slowed, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts cooled. In 2025, China's refined copper output continued to increase. From January to May, the copper output reached 6.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4%. After excluding sample expansion, the increase was still 6.7%. Despite high production, the copper inventory is in good condition, at a relatively low level [9]. Aluminum - The aluminum price fell slightly last Friday, affected by the overall decline in commodities. The weighted open interest of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 7654 lots. The LME inventory continued to increase. Domestic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods started to accumulate inventory, indicating the end of the de - stocking phase. The inventory is expected to remain stable or increase, following the seasonal trend. The warehouse receipts increased significantly [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The industry has entered the off - season, with weak growth in manufacturing orders. However, the tight supply of scrap aluminum has supported the price of cast aluminum alloy from the cost side. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi increased by 7.13% for two consecutive weeks, although still at a relatively low level. The supply from Myanmar's Wa State is becoming more relaxed. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry, an important downstream of tin solder, is in the off - season, with a decrease in orders. The demand for lead - acid batteries is weak, and the demand for tin - plated sheets and tin chemicals is stable. As the tin price rises, the downstream is hesitant to buy, and the inventory increased by 658 tons this week. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be restricted in the medium term due to high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and declining demand [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate - On the supply side, there is a contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality. The "anti - involution" policy has boosted the macro - sentiment, and the price of lithium carbonate has fluctuated strongly. The price of lithium ore has rebounded significantly, but the production of lithium carbonate remains high due to reduced smelting losses. On the demand side, the output of power cells decreased in June, but the output of energy - storage cells increased significantly. In July, the production of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and batteries increased. The current price is close to the cost of mica - integrated production, providing strong cost support [11]. Industrial Silicon - There are short - term positive impacts, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly. The start - up rate in the southwest increased last week, but the number of open furnaces in the north decreased, leading to a decline in weekly output. The "anti - involution" theme has boosted expectations [11]. Polysilicon - It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, driven by the production cut of industrial silicon and the "anti - involution" theme. Due to high industry concentration, the price has greater elasticity. The supply - demand situation remains weak, and the prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continue to decline [12]. Group 6: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has unexpectedly increased daily production by 548,000 barrels, and with continued production growth in South America in the second half of the year, the downward trend of oil prices is more certain. Although the short - term spot price has not been clearly affected by over - supply, it may be supported in the short term, but refinery profits may be affected after the peak - season profit period, and purchasing willingness may decline [13]. Asphalt - The oil price is running at a low level, and the asphalt price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the factory inventory is being depleted slowly. The basis has rebounded, and the social inventory has limited accumulation. As the demand approaches the peak season, the inventory depletion situation needs to be monitored. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following the oil price in the short term [14]. PX - After the premium of crude oil was reversed, the strong trend of PX changed, and the overseas price weakened to $840. The PXN spread reached $250, and the industry profit declined significantly. The recovery of PTA's start - up rate will provide some support for PX, and the weakening trend of PX may be slower than that of its downstream [14]. PTA - The tightness of the spot market has been significantly relieved, the port inventory has increased, and the basis has declined. The downstream start - up rate has continued to decline to 90.2%. There is still room for the downstream start - up rate to decline, and with the downward trend of crude oil prices due to production increases, the PTA price still has some downward space [14]. Ethylene Glycol - The port inventory has been depleted to 540,000 tons. The overall start - up rate has declined, reducing supply pressure. However, the continuous decline of the downstream start - up rate will restrict further inventory depletion. The factory inventory is still being depleted steadily. It is expected to bottom out and follow the polyester sector to operate weakly in the short term [14]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices has led to a callback in the short - fiber price. It generally follows the polyester sector to fluctuate strongly. Terminal orders are still average, and the start - up rate continues to decline. The inventory of short - fiber remains high, and inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand in late July. With the weakening cost support, it will maintain a weak - oscillation pattern following the polyester sector in the medium term [15]. Methanol - There are maintenance activities in the inland area, and the arrival volume has decreased. Downstream olefins have maintenance plans. Before the implementation of maintenance, the spot price has some support. The international start - up rate has increased significantly, and the import expectation has risen again, and the supply - demand situation is expected to worsen. It has rebounded slightly under policy disturbances, but the upside is limited, and short - selling opportunities should be monitored [15]. PP - There are both maintenance and new - capacity releases, slightly relieving the supply pressure. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to decline. The crude oil price fluctuates weakly, and the profit of oil - based production is fair. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the price is expected to decline further after the new - capacity release [16][17]. LLDPE - The number of device maintenance has increased, but the overall output is higher than the same period last year. The downstream is in the off - season, and the demand continues to weaken. The balance sheet shows an expected inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure. There is still room for cost - profit compression [18]. Group 7: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The pricing of the US soybean planting area is settled, and the weather during the key growing period from July to August is crucial. The current hot and humid environment in the US soybean - growing areas is conducive to crop growth, and the probability of extreme drought is low. The market's expectation of a bumper harvest remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the July USDA supply - demand report. The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has supported the US soybean market. The export expectation has improved with positive trade news between China and the US, and the balance - sheet pressure has been further reduced. The CBOT soybean is expected to remain in a stable range [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The high - start - up rate of oil mills has maintained a stable supply of soybean meal, and the market sentiment is weak. The average monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from July to September in China may be around 1.1 million tons, and the supply pressure is difficult to relieve within the 09 - contract period. The short - term stable trend of US soybeans provides some support. The positive news of China - US soybean trade has limited impact on the upward movement of futures prices. In the fourth quarter, the import premium of soybeans and the basis of domestic soybean meal are expected to remain weak. The upward space of soybean meal within the 09 - contract period is limited [20]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The "Big and Beautiful" Act in the US has extended the clean - fuel production tax credit to 2029, which is beneficial to US soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil. In China, the rapeseed oil port inventory is high, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The soybean oil inventory is accelerating its recovery, and the risk of inventory accumulation is increasing. The domestic soybean and rapeseed oil markets lack independent market - moving factors in the short term and are affected by palm oil. The soybean - palm oil price remains inverted [20][21]. Palm Oil - OPEC+'s planned production increase in August may put pressure on the oil peak season, limiting the boost to international oils. In Malaysia, the production in June decreased by about 4% month - on - month, and the export may increase by 4% - 6% month - on - month. The inventory may shrink to less than 2 million tons. The positive export data in July has boosted market sentiment, but the long - term production increase and the pressure on oil prices are the main limiting factors. In China, the palm oil storage has increased, and the basis is weak. The import profit is in an inverted state, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound and strong trend [21]. Corn - The grassroots price of corn is firm, and the basis is strong. The auction of imported corn had a slightly high premium and good transactions, with limited impact on the production area. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased, and there are more shutdowns for maintenance during the off - season. Feed enterprises are using more wheat as a substitute for corn, putting pressure on the corn price in Shandong. In July, the import of corn and the substitution of wheat may affect the futures price negatively. After the seasonal substitution of wheat for feed consumption in August - September, the postponed demand will return, and the corn price is likely to rise [22]. Pork - Leading enterprises have a low willingness to increase production and reduce weight for export. The supply in July is expected to decrease due to the impact of piglet diarrhea during the Spring Festival. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the profit expectation for the peak season in August - September is low. The cost of secondary fattening has increased significantly, and the willingness to restock is low. A large - scale concentrated supply of second - fattened pigs is expected in late July and late August, which will limit the upward space of pig prices. The spot price has decreased, and the futures price is expected to decline slightly in the next period [22].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年7月6日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：继续回落；白银：高位震荡 强弱分析：黄金中性、白银中性 价格区间：760-800元/克、8700-9100元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 | | | 国际黄金期现价格及价差 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合 | 期货收盘价(连 | 伦敦金 | 伦敦现货 | COMEX黄金连续 | | | 约):COMEX黄金 | 续):COMEX黄金 | | COMEX黄金主力 | COMEX黄金主力 | | 2025-07-04 | 3425.60 | 3332.50 | 3336.94 | -88.66 | -93.1 ...