Group 1: Economic Trends - China's export growth has been declining since March, with rates of 12.3%, 8.1%, and 4.8% respectively, while actual export levels remain stable around $300 billion[9] - Exports to the US have significantly shrunk, showing declines of 9.1%, -21.0%, and -34.5%[9] - The GDP growth for the first half of the year is projected at 5.2%, with a neutral scenario suggesting an annual growth of 4.4% and an optimistic scenario at 4.9%[12] Group 2: Trade and Policy Implications - The trade war narrative has shifted from a core focus to a long-term perspective, with the potential for systemic challenges in key sectors by 2025[19] - The impact of tariffs is expected to deepen quarterly, with macroeconomic conditions remaining variable[48] - The government is expected to implement a "structural counter-cyclical" policy to balance growth and inflation concerns[27] Group 3: Investment and Consumption Insights - Infrastructure investment has shown signs of weakness, with significant declines observed in May compared to seasonal expectations[100] - Consumer spending has demonstrated resilience, with a notable recovery in retail sales driven by trade friction easing and service consumption stabilization[92] - Manufacturing investment is facing downward pressure, with a return to "recession-style" expansion observed[111]

Group 1 - The core announcement from Trump on his social media platform indicated a supposed agreement with China involving the pre-supply of magnets and rare earth elements, in exchange for allowing Chinese students to continue studying in the U.S. [1] - The claimed 55% tariff on China was clarified by White House officials as a combination of existing tariffs rather than a new sanction, with the actual tariff facing China being around 30% [1][3] - The negotiations between the U.S. and China included discussions on restoring key mineral supply, particularly rare earth elements, which are critical for various industries, including automotive and defense [3] Group 2 - The U.S. is facing significant pressure from its automotive industry and military leaders regarding the supply of rare earth elements, leading to a strategic negotiation where China agreed to restore exports under strict monitoring [3] - The trade dynamics have shifted, with the U.S. potentially easing restrictions on certain semiconductor design software and aircraft parts in exchange for rare earth exports from China [3][5] - The overall trade environment remains challenging, with the U.S. imposing an average tariff of 30% on Chinese goods, significantly higher than the 3.1% average tariff before the trade war began [5][7] Group 3 - The implementation of a rare earth tracking system by China is aimed at monitoring the end-use of these materials, indicating a strategic exchange of resources for technology [3][5] - The ongoing trade war has resulted in a significant drop in Chinese exports to the U.S., with a reported 34.5% decline, leading to inventory shortages and rising prices in the U.S. [5] - The complexities of the negotiations highlight the blurred lines regarding technology controls, with only non-sensitive semiconductor equipment being considered for export relaxation, while defense-related technologies remain restricted [5][7]

Group 1: Macroeconomics and Stock Index - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut is rising, and the weakening dollar is beneficial to the risk appetite of emerging markets. The domestic economy shows a "stable and progressive" trend, with the contribution rate of consumption to GDP growth significantly increasing, investment in science - and - technology manufacturing accelerating, and the export structure tilting towards the mid - to - high - end market. The monetary policy remains flexible and appropriate, and ample liquidity supports the market. Attention should be paid to the policy signals of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th, and the Middle - East situation may cause increased volatility. Neutral strategies are recommended for IH and IF, such as holding short out - of - the - money options or lightly long positions. For IC and IM, inter - period spread arbitrage can be arranged, or long forward contracts can be bought at low prices to hedge against fluctuations [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The development of the Israel - Iran conflict is a key factor affecting oil prices recently. The market is starting to wait and see, and volatility has increased significantly. Fundamentally, the peak summer season for crude oil is coming, and U.S. inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, which supports the rise in oil prices to some extent. However, in the medium term, the Middle - East situation, especially Iran's counter - attack against Israel's attack, needs to be closely monitored. If the situation in the Middle East continues to escalate, oil prices are likely to rise. Many institutions predict that if the regional conflict further expands, oil prices may return to the high - price range. If the driving factor fades or the conflict de - escalates, the risk premium of crude oil will also decline rapidly. The WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Iran has released signals to ease the Israel - Iran conflict, but the fire incident of three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz has intensified the tension, and the safe - haven demand has pushed up the price of gold. Trump announced the suspension of sanctions against Russia at the G7 summit, which led to a partial decline in the gold price, but geopolitical uncertainties still exist. As of the early Asian session on June 17th, spot gold was trading around $3380 - $3400 per ounce, rising slightly during the day and touching the $3400 mark. Technically, attention should be paid to the support around $3385 and the resistance around $3450. The Middle - East risk premium (short - term) and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation (medium - term) support the price, but profit - taking behavior restrains the increase. In the short - term strategy, the development of the Israel - Iran conflict is the core driving factor. If the situation deteriorates, the gold price may break through around $3450; if there is a diplomatic breakthrough, it may fall to the support area of $3250 - $3300. The differences in trade at the G7 summit should also be synchronously monitored. In the long - term, the uncertainty of the global economy, the intensification of trade frictions, and the rising inflation expectation may provide structural support for gold [4] Group 4: Silver - As of the Asian session on June 17th, the international silver price was trading in a narrow range between $36.1 - $36.5 per ounce, and the increase in the warehouse receipt volume indicates intensified long - short competition. Iran is seeking to mediate the Israel - Iran conflict through Oman and Qatar, but Israel claims to have "controlled the airspace over Tehran", and Iran warns of an "unprecedented" attack. The risk of conflict escalation supports safe - haven assets. The tariff differences between the U.S. and Europe remain unresolved (the EU may accept a unified tariff of 10%), but the market focus has shifted to the Middle - East situation. If the U.S. intervenes, it may further push up precious metals. The gold - silver ratio is still at a historical high, and the industrial demand for silver and the logic of a supplementary rise attract funds. The positions of Shanghai silver have increased in the past five days, highlighting the bullish sentiment. Attention should be paid to the key support at $36 per ounce. Currently, it is still in a volatile market. If the Middle - East situation eases, the safe - haven demand may weaken, and if the Fed's interest - rate cut pace fails to meet expectations, it may suppress the upward space of the silver price [5] Group 5: Chemical Industry PTA - The spot price in East China is 5020 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 15 yuan per ton and a basis of 270 yuan per ton. The Middle - East geopolitical factors led to a relatively strong trend in the cost - end crude - oil price last week, which supports the PTA price, but the upward space is limited. In June, PTA plants are undergoing both maintenance and restart, with the overall operating rate maintained at 83.25%, a month - on - month increase of 4.25%. The available inventory days are 4.03 days, basically the same as the previous period but still at a historical low, showing a continuous de - stocking trend. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, and the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%. The textile market is in the off - season, with weak orders and a lack of positive stimuli, and inventory pressure is gradually emerging. In general, the cost - end crude - oil fluctuations provide short - term support, but the supply - demand contradiction of PTA itself still dominates the price trend. In the short term, it may fluctuate following the cost end [6] Ethylene Glycol - The spot price in East China is reported at 4470 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 33 yuan per ton and a basis of 70 yuan per ton. Affected by geopolitical factors, some Middle - East plants have shut down, but the overall operating load of ethylene glycol is 55.07%, a month - on - month increase of 2.71%, and the coal - based operating rate is 55.28%, a month - on - month increase of 3.95%. The weekly output is 33.71 tons, an increase of 1.82 tons compared with the previous week. The inventory in the main ports of East China is 56.38 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.42 tons. The polyester factory load is maintained at 88.72%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%, the Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom load is 61.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%, and the terminal order days are 9.91 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.51 days. Currently, the ethylene - glycol market focuses on geopolitical factors and cost - end price changes in the short term, and needs to track tariff policies and the recovery of downstream demand in the medium term. In the short term, it may fluctuate slightly to the upside [7] PVC - The mainstream spot price of Type 5 PVC in East China is 4750 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5050 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton; the price difference between ethylene and electricity is 300 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week it was 79.25%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.47% and a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. Among them, the calcium - carbide method was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.54% and a year - on - year increase of 6.32%, and the ethylene method was 72.59%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.94% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. In terms of demand, there is no obvious improvement in domestic downstream product enterprises, and transactions are still mainly for rigid demand. As of June 12th, the new sample statistics of PVC social inventory decreased by 2.59% month - on - month to 57.36 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 36.83%. Among them, the inventory in East China was 52.20 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.72% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.25%; the inventory in South China was 5.16 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.69%. Affected by market sentiment, the futures price rebounded slightly on June 17th, but the fundamentals of PVC have not improved significantly, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [8] PP - In the spot market, the mainstream price of PP raffia in North China is 7161 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 29 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7195 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 44 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7308 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 24 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, last week the average capacity utilization rate of polypropylene was 78.64%, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%; the capacity utilization rate of Sinopec was 77.99%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%. The domestic polypropylene output was 77.56 tons, an increase of 1.79 tons compared with last week's 75.77 tons, a rise of 2.36%; compared with the 65.54 tons in the same period last year, it increased by 12.02 tons, a rise of 18.34%. In terms of demand, the average operating rate of domestic polypropylene downstream industries decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 49.97%. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the port sample inventory of Chinese polypropylene decreased by 0.18 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.71%, and inventory was successfully reduced last week. On June 17th, the futures price rebounded slightly, mainly due to market sentiment. The fundamentals are weak, there is no obvious driving force, and the futures price may oscillate. Be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [9][10] Plastic - In the spot market, the mainstream price in North China is 7386 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 31 yuan per ton; in East China, it is 7560 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 45 yuan per ton; in South China, it is 7721 yuan per ton, with a month - on - month increase of 27 yuan per ton. From the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises is 79.17%, an increase of 1.76 percentage points compared with the previous period. From the demand side, the average operating rate of downstream products of LLDPE/LDPE in China last week decreased by 0.49% compared with the previous period. Among them, the overall operating rate of agricultural films decreased by 0.53% compared with the previous period, and the operating rate of PE packaging films decreased by 0.45% compared with the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of June 11, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 50.87 tons, a decrease of 0.9 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%, and the inventory trend changed from increasing to decreasing. Driven by the increase in the cost - end price of crude oil, the futures price rebounded on June 17th. Currently, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, the futures price may oscillate, and be vigilant against the risk of sentiment decline [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe area is 1214 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The mainstream price of heavy soda ash in East China is 1350 yuan per ton, in North China is 1400 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1350 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the overall operating rate of soda ash was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 4.14%. The soda - ash output was 74.49 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous period, a rise of 5.79%. Recently, equipment operation has been relatively stable, and there are few maintenance enterprises. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory was 168.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.93 tons, a rise of 3.64%. It is understood that the social inventory decreased by nearly 2 tons, with a total of more than 32 tons. The demand side shows average performance. Mid - and downstream enterprises replenish their inventories for rigid demand for low - price goods, but still have a resistance to high - price goods. Overall, the market lacks new driving forces, and it is expected that the futures market will continue to oscillate in the bottom - range in the short term. Continuously pay attention to equipment maintenance dynamics and unexpected events [12] Glass - The market price of 5mm large - size glass in the Shahe area is 1117 yuan per ton, remaining unchanged month - on - month. There are slight differences among regions. The market price of 5mm large - size glass in East China is 1230 yuan per ton, in North China is 1130 yuan per ton, and in Central China is 1070 yuan per ton, all remaining unchanged month - on - month. In terms of supply, last week the operating rate of float glass was 75.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03%. The weekly glass output was 109.12 tons, a decrease of 0.67 tons compared with the previous period, a decline of 0.61%. Recently, the supply level has not fluctuated much, but there are still plans to ignite production lines from June to July. Pay attention to production - line changes. In terms of inventory, last week the factory inventory of float glass was 6968.5 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 6.9 ten - thousand weight - boxes, a decline of 0.1%. With the coming of the rainy season, the enterprise inventory pressure cannot be ignored. The demand side remains weak and has not improved significantly. In the short term, it is difficult for the glass demand to improve substantially, and it is expected that the futures market will oscillate weakly in the short term. Continuously pay attention to changes in enterprise inventory, production - line changes, and market sentiment [13][14] Rubber - The spot price of rubber: domestic full - latex is 13900 yuan per ton, Thai smoked three - piece is 19500 yuan per ton, Vietnamese 3L standard rubber is 15000 yuan per ton, and No. 20 rubber is 13650 yuan per ton. The raw - material price in Hat Yai: smoked sheets are 66.87 Thai baht per kilogram, latex is 56.95 Thai baht per kilogram, cup lump is 47.2 Thai baht per kilogram, and raw rubber is 64 Thai baht per kilogram. Rubber is mainly driven by market sentiment to rebound, but the repeated situation of the U.S. resuming trade - war tariffs and the supply - exceeding - demand fundamentals restrict the rebound height of rubber. Pay close attention to the recent strength of the crude - oil chemical sector. Fundamentally, domestic full - latex has started production, the Yunnan production area has fully started production, and the supply of Hainan latex has begun to increase. The Southeast - Asian production areas have fully started production, and the overall supply is in a loose state. Currently, the global supply and demand of rubber are both loose. This week, the operating rate of downstream tires for passenger cars is 69.98%, a month - on - month increase of 5.93% and a year - on - year decrease of 10%. The operating rate of truck tires is 58.7%, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 4.95%. The market is hyping up macro - narratives such as the trade war. The U.S. imposing tariffs on automobiles and expanding the scope of tariffs on household appliances may seriously suppress global rubber demand. Pay close attention to the operating conditions of rubber downstream enterprises. Currently, the operating rate has rebounded this week, and combined with macro - sentiment, it drives the rubber price to rebound. Pay attention to factors such as domestic rubber import volume and inventory changes [15][16] Methanol - The domestic spot price of methanol has generally increased. The spot price of methanol in East China is reported at 2585 yuan per ton, an increase of 95 yuan per ton compared with the previous day. The closing price of the main methanol futures contract MA509 is reported at 2455 yuan per ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared with the previous trading day. In terms of port inventory, the inventory of Chinese methanol ports has increased, with a stock of 65.2

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. For silver, due to speculative capital pull - up and lack of fundamental support, it is advisable to consider long - term short positions or opportunistically go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. - For base metals, maintain a buy - on - dips approach for copper, expect aluminum prices to oscillate strongly and suggest light - position buy - on - dips, anticipate alumina prices to weaken and recommend selling on rallies, expect zinc prices to weaken and suggest selling on rallies, and for lead, suggest range - bound operations [2][3]. - In the black industry, it is advisable to wait and see for most products, with attempts to go long on螺纹 steel and焦煤 [4]. - For agricultural products, short - term soybean meal is expected to be strongly volatile, corn prices are expected to be strongly volatile, sugar prices are expected to be weakly volatile, cotton requires waiting and seeing, palm oil is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, eggs and apples require waiting and seeing, and pig prices are expected to be weakly volatile [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, most products are expected to be volatile in the short - term, and for most, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts in the long - term. For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: International silver prices rose 2% on Tuesday, breaking through $37 per ounce, while gold continued to weaken. 43% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months. It is recommended to go long on gold [1]. - **Silver**: Mainly driven by speculative funds, lacking fundamental support. It is recommended to consider long - term short positions or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price oscillated. The global copper ore supply is tight, and Japan's JX Metals is considering production cuts. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.27%. The electrolytic aluminum market is in a "low - inventory + weak - demand" game state, and it is suggested to buy on dips with a light position [2]. - **Alumina**: The price of the 2509 contract rose 0.28%. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [2]. - **Zinc**: The price of the 2507 contract rose 0.30%. Supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [3]. - **Lead**: The price of the 2507 contract fell 0.71%. It is recommended to operate within a range [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of the 09 contract fell. It is recommended to maintain a short - bias view before production increases and consider shorting on rebounds [3]. - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The price of the 07 contract fell. If the warehouse receipt registration speed exceeds expectations, consider an inverse spread strategy between the 07 and far - month contracts [3]. - **Tin**: The price oscillated weakly. It is recommended to maintain a buy - on - dips approach [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The price of the 2510 contract oscillated horizontally. Steel supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are marginally neutral - to - strong, but the medium - term surplus pattern remains unchanged. It is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of the 2509 contract oscillated horizontally. Supply and demand are relatively loose, but the fundamentals are gradually improving. It is advisable to wait and see and attempt to go long [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose. In the short - term, US soybeans are expected to be strongly volatile, and domestic soybeans follow international cost trends [5]. - **Corn**: The 2507 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply - demand situation is tightening marginally, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile [5][6]. - **Sugar**: The 09 contract closed at 5668 yuan/ton. The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus, and prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight US cotton prices fell. It is advisable to wait and see and adopt a range - bound strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: Yesterday, Malaysian palm oil prices fell but remained strong. In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile [6]. - **Eggs**: The 2508 contract corrected. Prices are expected to oscillate [6]. - **Pigs**: The 2509 contract oscillated narrowly. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract rose. It is advisable to wait and see [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - **LLDPE**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [8]. - **PVC**: It is recommended to exit short positions and wait and see, and consider selling call options above 4950 [8]. - **PTA**: Hold long positions in PX, and maintain the view of selling processing margins on rallies for PTA [8]. - **Rubber**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to go short above 14000 and hold spread positions [8][9]. - **Glass**: It is recommended to sell call options at 1250 [9]. - **PP**: The short - term is expected to be strongly volatile, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9]. - **MEG**: It is advisable to wait and see [9]. - **Crude Oil**: It is recommended to go short on rallies after geopolitical risks are controllable [9]. - **Styrene**: The short - term is expected to oscillate, and in the long - term, it is recommended to go short on far - month contracts [9][10]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options at 1400 [10].

（加拿大央行）政策能在支持经济的同时侧重于价格稳定性。 许多公司报告称，打算针对（美国总统特朗普挑起的）关税涨价。 发生严峻贸易战的可能性降低，但美国政策存在不可预见性。 加拿大央行会议纪要：如果经济走弱，通胀受抑，可能会降息。 央行在6月份按兵不动，但会上有讨论降息25个基点的可能性。 如果核心通胀顽固，央行降息的难度将加大。 央行同意谨慎行动，让政策的前瞻性低于以往。 不确定核心（通胀率）表现出波动性、还是持续承压。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement emphasizes that there are no winners in trade wars and that unilateralism, protectionism, and hegemonism ultimately harm all parties involved [1] Group 1 - The current global situation is characterized by accelerated changes and a new period of turmoil and transformation [1] - The importance of fairness, justice, and mutual benefit is highlighted as essential for maintaining world peace and achieving common development [1] - The call for unity and the rejection of a return to the "law of the jungle" is made, advocating for the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan decided to maintain the short-term interest rate at 0.5% and plans to slow down the reduction of its balance sheet next year, indicating a cautious approach to unwinding a decade-long large-scale stimulus policy [1] - The Bank of Japan's Governor, Kazuo Ueda, emphasized the need to closely monitor upcoming economic data and the overall inflation situation before considering any rate hikes [1] - There is a recognition of high uncertainty in the economic environment, with mixed signals from sentiment surveys and actual economic data, which complicates the timing of potential interest rate increases [1] Group 2 - Trade uncertainties are expected to suppress winter bonuses and next year's wage negotiations, with actual impacts difficult to predict until more data is available [2] - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and rising food prices could affect inflation expectations and potential inflation in Japan, necessitating careful monitoring of these developments [2] - The impact of trade tensions may primarily manifest through declining manufacturing profits, prompting companies to adopt cost-cutting pricing strategies [2] Group 3 - Recent data shows consumer inflation fluctuating around 3%, primarily driven by rising import costs and rice prices, although these pressures are expected to gradually dissipate [3] - There is a significant uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, which poses greater downside risks to Japan's economy and price levels [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 免责声明 | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 | | | | 2025/6/17 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 数据指标 最新 环比 | 数据指标 最新 | | | 环比 | | EC主力收盘价 2038.000 | -28.8↓ EC次主力收盘价 | | 1416.1 | -21.80↓ | | 期货盘面 EC2508-EC2510价差 621.90 | +6.60↑ EC2508-EC2512价差 | | 427.00 | +8.20↑ | | EC合约基差 -8.00↓ | | -340.37 | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 44501 843↑ | | | | | | SCFIS（欧线）（周） 1697.63 | 74.82↑ SCFIS（美西线）（周） 2,908.68 | | | 723.60↑ | | SCFI（综合指数 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, gold prices may fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Israel - Iran situation and tariff policies, and the market will face a super - week of central banks including the Fed, which may increase market volatility. Silver prices were supported by the Israel - Iran conflict boosting oil prices, but it's difficult to rise significantly again after the previous sharp increase [4]. - In the long - term, considering the ongoing trade war, the downward risk of the US economy, the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified great - power competition, and the wave of de - dollarization, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and it is recommended to allocate on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **Precious Metals Prices**: On June 16, 2025, London gold spot was at $3415.20/ounce, London silver spot at $36.38/ounce, COMEX gold at $3434.80/ounce, COMEX silver at $36.48/ounce, AU2508 at 792.30 yuan/gram, AG2508 at 8858 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) at 788.66 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) at 8831 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, gold prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while silver prices rose, with increases of 0.8% for London silver spot, COMEX silver, and AG2508, and 0.6% for AG (T + D) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: On June 16, 2025, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3.64 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 27 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) was 0.41 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price spread (TD - London) was - 583 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 89.44, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 94.16, AU2512 - 2508 was 3.74 yuan/gram, and AG2512 - 2508 was 31 yuan/kg. Compared with June 13, the price spreads and ratios showed various changes, with the largest increase of 58.8% in the silver TD - SHFE active price spread and the largest decrease of 86.5% in the gold internal - external price spread (TD - London) [3]. 3.2 Position Data - As of June 13, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 940.49 tons, up 0.28% from June 12; the silver ETF - SLV was 14675.3622 tons, down 0.36%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold were 245995 contracts, down 0.40%; the non - commercial short positions were 58514 contracts, down 0.95%; the non - commercial net long positions were 187481 contracts, down 0.23%. The non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver were 85192 contracts, up 3.92%; the non - commercial short positions were 18542 contracts, down 12.58%; the non - commercial net long positions were 66650 contracts, up 9.68% [3]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On June 16, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 18177 kg, unchanged from June 13; the SHFE silver inventory was 1194931 kg, down 1.25%. As of June 13, the COMEX gold inventory was 37789752 ounces, unchanged from June 12; the COMEX silver inventory was 498460011 ounces, up 0.05% [3]. 3.4 Interest Rates/Exchange Rates/Markets - On June 16, 2025, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 7.18, the US dollar index was 98.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.96, the VIX was 4.41, the S&P 500 was 5976.97, the US dollar/CNY central parity rate was 73.18, and NYMEX crude oil was not clearly stated. Compared with June 13, the 2 - year US Treasury yield rose 0.02%, the US dollar index rose 0.29%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 1.54%, the VIX rose 1.15%, the S&P 500 fell 1.13%, and NYMEX crude oil rose 6.27% [4]. 3.5 Important News - Geopolitical: The conflict between Iran and Israel continues. The Israeli Prime Minister said that Israel is willing to stop the action if Iran accepts the US demand to abandon the nuclear program. Trump and the US are not currently involved in Israel's military strike against Iran but may be involved in the future [4]. - Economic Data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in June was 60.5, the first improvement in 6 months. The preliminary value of the one - year inflation rate expectation was 5.1%, and the preliminary value of the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 4.1% [4].

Group 1: Macro - Overseas geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, have intensified market risk - aversion and affected global capital markets. China's foreign trade faces pressure with slowing export growth. The domestic economic structure is still differentiated, with weak real - estate investment dragging down growth expectations. Internet services, culture and media, and software development received over 5 billion yuan in net inflows of main funds [2] - Given the current macro - environment uncertainties, especially frequent overseas risk events, investors are advised to allocate assets rationally and consider using derivatives like options to hedge potential volatility risks [2] Group 2: Crude Oil - The Israel - Iran conflict has led to a sharp rise in crude oil and chemical prices. The approaching summer peak season, declining US inventories, and a predicted decline in US production support price increases. However, the price is highly sensitive to the development of the Middle East situation [3] - WTI main contract should focus on the resistance around $78 per barrel [3] Group 3: Gold - Geopolitical risks, expectations of Fed rate cuts, weakening attractiveness of US dollar assets, and central bank gold purchases support the gold price. The ongoing G7 summit and the Ukraine situation add to geopolitical uncertainties [4] - Gold has shown a clear upward trend since early 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 30%. Investors should be wary of short - term technical adjustment pressure and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [4][5] Group 4: Silver - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East boost risk - aversion, but the unclear Fed rate - cut signal and concerns about industrial demand create a mixed situation. The iShares Silver ETF holdings are at a low level, and inventory data shows a downward trend in some regions [6] - Silver is in a high - level oscillation pattern. Investors should be cautious about the possible return of the gold - silver ratio to rational levels and focus on the Fed's FOMC interest rate decision on June 19 [6] Group 5: Chemicals PTA - The rising crude oil price due to Middle East geopolitics supports PTA prices, but the upside is limited. PTA device maintenance and restart are concurrent, with an overall operating rate of 83.25%. The textile market is in a slack season, and inventory pressure is emerging [7] - PTA may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [7] Ethylene Glycol - Although some devices are under maintenance or production cuts, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol has increased. Inventories in the East China main port have decreased, while downstream demand is weakening. The market should focus on cost - end price changes and downstream production - cut progress in the short term and tariff policies and device maintenance dynamics in the medium term [8] - Ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term following cost - end changes [8] PVC - PVC supply is relatively stable, but downstream demand has not improved significantly. Social inventories have decreased, but the fundamentals remain weak, and the futures price is oscillating at a low level [9][10] - The PVC futures price will oscillate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [10] PP - Polypropylene production capacity utilization has increased, but downstream demand has slightly decreased. Port inventories have decreased. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [11] - The fundamentals of PP have not improved, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [12] Plastic - The production capacity utilization of polyethylene has increased, while downstream demand has decreased. Inventories have changed from an upward to a downward trend. The futures price may oscillate, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] - The fundamentals of plastic are weak, and investors should be wary of the risk of market sentiment reversal [13] Soda Ash - Soda ash production has increased, and factory inventories have risen, while social inventories have decreased. Downstream demand is average, and the market lacks new driving forces. The futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] - The soda ash futures price is expected to continue oscillating at the bottom in the short term [14] Glass - The supply of float glass has been relatively stable, with a slight decrease in weekly output. Inventories have decreased slightly, but the approaching rainy season may increase inventory pressure. Downstream demand remains weak. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [15] - The glass futures price is expected to continue oscillating weakly in the short term [15] Rubber - Rubber prices are mainly driven by market sentiment, with the rebound limited by the US trade - war tariff policy and the oversupply situation. The supply of rubber is abundant as domestic and Southeast Asian production areas are in the harvest season. The downstream tire - making industry's operating rate has increased [17] - Rubber prices may rebound mainly due to market resonance, and investors should focus on the downstream operating rate [17] Methanol - The spot price of methanol has increased, and the futures price has also risen. Port inventories have increased, and supply pressure persists. However, due to the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease significantly. The demand side shows a mixed situation [18] - The methanol futures price may oscillate strongly, and investors should focus on the inventory accumulation speed at ports and the impact of the Middle East situation on crude oil prices [18] Group 6: Agricultural Products Corn - The USDA report has a limited positive impact on corn prices. The domestic corn market is in a transition period between old and new crops, with a potential shortage of supply. Wheat may replace corn in the feed - use field, and downstream demand is weak [19][20] - Corn main contract is expected to oscillate between 2300 - 2400 yuan per ton in the short term, and investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level [20] Peanut - The increase in the US bio - fuel standard has supported peanut futures sentiment, but the peanut's own fundamentals do not support continuous price increases. The estimated increase in domestic peanut planting area may lead to lower prices. Currently, the market is in a period of inventory consumption, with low inventory levels and weak supply - demand [21] - Peanut main contract is expected to oscillate in the short term without a clear trend [21] Cotton - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations has driven up cotton prices. The USDA report is positive for cotton, but the expected increase in domestic cotton production may keep prices low. Currently, imports are low, and commercial inventories are below normal levels, but downstream textile demand is weak [22] - Cotton prices are expected to run strongly in a short - term range, and investors should focus on whether it can fill the previous gap [22] Live Pig - The government's purchase and storage policy has sent a positive signal, but the market supply is sufficient, and demand is weak. Although the enthusiasm for secondary fattening has increased after the price decline, terminal consumption remains dull [23] - For the live pig 2509 contract, investors should focus on whether it can break through the upper pressure level of 14,000 yuan and continuously monitor the slaughter situation [23] Egg - The supply of eggs is sufficient due to a high inventory of laying hens. In the demand side, hot and humid weather makes egg storage difficult, and downstream procurement is cautious [24][25] - The current egg futures price is undervalued, and there is limited room for downward movement. It is recommended to wait and see for now [25] Soybean No. 2 - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has boosted US soybeans. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have affected the market. The export prospects of US soybeans are unclear [26] - Soybean No. 2 may oscillate strongly in the short term [26] Soybean Meal - The US tariff policy and global geopolitical instability affect soybean meal prices. US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and Brazilian soybeans are in the export peak season. Domestically, the supply pressure of soybean meal is increasing, and downstream demand is weakening [27] - Soybean meal may oscillate in a short - term range [27] Soybean Oil - The breakthrough in US bio - fuel has led to an increase in the external market, which has driven up domestic soybean oil prices. The good weather in the US soybean - growing area and the peak export season of Brazilian soybeans have an impact. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal is expected to increase, and downstream demand is in the off - season [28] - Soybean oil may oscillate strongly in the short term [28] Group 7: Metals Shanghai Copper - The Middle East situation has a complex impact on copper prices. Although there are signs of easing, the uncertainty persists. Domestic support policies have improved market sentiment. However, raw - material supply problems remain, and copper inventories are decreasing [29] - Copper prices are testing the lower neckline of the island pattern, and investors should focus on its effectiveness as a defense line [29] Shanghai Aluminum - Positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade consultations and US rate - cut expectations have boosted market sentiment. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, while downstream demand is entering the off - season. Low inventories support prices, but there is pressure from weakening demand [30] - The Shanghai Aluminum 2507 contract is expected to oscillate within a range [30] Alumina - Alumina supply is sufficient, and the operating rate has increased. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventories have slightly increased. The market is in a situation of oversupply, and prices are under pressure [31] - The Alumina 2509 contract shows a weak adjustment trend [31] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Tight scrap - aluminum supply provides cost support, but the industry is facing over - supply pressure due to capacity expansion. The demand from the new - energy vehicle industry may slow down in the second half of the year, and inventories are at a relatively high level [32] - The Cast Aluminum Alloy 2511 contract may run weakly [32] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium - ore market has stabilized, and inventories have decreased. The supply of lithium carbonate is still at a high level, while demand is weak except for the power - battery sector. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [33] - Conservative investors are advised to wait and see, while aggressive investors can operate within the range [33] Industrial Silicon - Supply is increasing as various regions resume production, especially in Xinjiang and the Southwest. Demand is mainly for on - demand procurement, and the market is in a loose state. Inventories are slightly decreasing, and prices are under pressure [35] - The Industrial Silicon 2509 contract will oscillate at the bottom [35] Polysilicon - Supply is increasing due to factory restarts in Sichuan and new - capacity expectations. Demand is weak, with a significant decline in the photovoltaic industry's demand. The market's supply - demand contradiction remains unsolved, and short - term improvement space is limited [36][37] - The Polysilicon 2507 contract will mainly oscillate, and investors should focus on the previous low - point support [37] Group 8: Black Metals Stainless Steel - Technically, the price trend may change from a one - sided decline to a low - level oscillation, but the rebound is restricted by the moving - average system. Fundamentally, the cold - demand of ferronickel weakens cost support, and supply pressure remains while demand is weak [38] - Stainless steel prices will oscillate widely at a low level and have not yet stabilized. It is recommended to wait and see for now [38] Rebar - The futures price has changed from a resistive decline to an oscillation under a high basis. Fundamentally, the macro - sentiment has improved, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand is in the off - season, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [39][40] - Rebar has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [40] Hot - Rolled Coil - Technically, the price trend is changing from a decline to a stabilization. Fundamentally, external negotiations are progressing smoothly, raw - material prices in the industry chain have stabilized, and the cost center is dynamically operating. Demand has recovered, inventories are low, and the valuation is relatively low [41] - Hot - rolled coil has a relatively low overall valuation. In the short term, investors can take a light - position, low - buying, and long - biased approach [41] Iron Ore - Supply is at a high level as Australian and non - mainstream country shipments increase. Demand remains strong as steel - mill production enthusiasm is high despite a slight decline in blast - furnace operating rates. Port inventories are increasing, but the rate of increase is narrowing [42] - Iron Ore 2509 may oscillate in the short term. Investors should focus on the port inventory reduction speed and steel - mill restart rhythm [42] Coal - For coking coal, inventories in steel mills and independent coking plants are decreasing, while port inventories are slightly increasing. Supply has decreased due to safety inspections in Shanxi, but inventories are still high. Demand is weak as coke price cuts have reduced coke - enterprise profits. For coke, inventories in steel mills and ports are decreasing, supply has decreased, and demand is weak as steel - mill profitability has declined [43] - Coking coal and coke main contracts are expected to oscillate in the near term. Investors should focus on steel - mill inventory reduction and policy implementation [44]