Group 1: Non-Farm Payroll Report - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to be a critical test for investors, with consensus predicting an addition of 60,000 jobs in December and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5% [3][4] - A strong report could lead to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, potentially disrupting the upward momentum of the stock market, while a weak report may reignite concerns about the economy and labor market [3][4] - The ideal scenario for the market would be a "Goldilocks" number that shows steady job growth while keeping the unemployment rate stable, which could support further stock market gains [3][4] Group 2: Tariff Ruling - The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of Trump's tariff policies, with a low probability of supporting these policies at 24% according to prediction markets [4][5] - If the tariffs are overturned, it may not significantly impact the overall market, but investors will closely monitor the stock performance of major retailers like Walmart and Costco, which are involved in lawsuits for tariff refunds [5][6] - The ruling could lead to a weakening of the dollar and a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve, potentially influencing Federal Reserve policy [6][7]

接着奏乐接着舞！1月9日，有色ETF华宝（159876）场内价格盘中猛拉3.33%，再创历史新高！截至发稿，获资金实时净申购5280万份，此前10日累计吸金 2.79亿元，伴随火热行情，资金狂涌！ 成份股方面，为商业航天提供有色金属的概念股显著领涨，云南锗业涨停，厦门钨业涨超9%，驰宏锌锗涨逾7%，海亮股份、西部超导等个股跟涨。权重股 方面，洛阳钼业涨超4%，紫金矿业、山东黄金涨逾3%，中国铝业、北方稀土涨超2%。 消息面上，中国央行连续第14个月增持黄金。国金证券指出，全球滞胀、秩序混沌、美国赤字货币化的核心支撑逻辑未变。展望2026年，黄金牛市基础依然 稳固，上涨趋势未改，且有望外溢至相关有色金属及战略金属领域。 放眼海外，本周五（北京时间 1月9日21：30），美国统计局将发布12月非农就业报告。中信建投期货表示，2026年美联储货币政策偏鸽，大概率进一步渐 进式降息，为有色市场提供偏多环境。东方证券指出，美联储降息周期里，供需偏紧的实物资产，即使是较小的供需缺口也有望产生较大的价格弹性。本轮 降息周期下，以铜、铝为代表的工业金属超级周期或已来临。 国联民生证券认为，美国降息周期延续，流动性宽松继续利好 ...

（本文作者梁永慧为招金精炼副总经理） 一、近期重点事件解析 美联储票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，当前政策立场已接近中性，美联储需依据更多经济 数据判断通胀问题与劳动力市场状况的优先关注顺序，再根据实际情况灵活调整政策方向。美联储理事 米兰则认为，2026年需累计降息超过100个基点。 市场对美联储货币宽松的预期，仍对贵金属价格形成支撑。 3.全球黄金投资规模持续扩大 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）资金流入量创下年度历史新高，其中 北美市场表现领跑。2025年，黄金ETF资产管理总规模实现翻倍以上增长，持仓量同步大幅攀升，两项 指标均刷新历史纪录。黄金市场日均交易额达3610亿美元，同样创下历史新高。 此外，1月7日中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国黄金储备为7415万盎司（约合 2306.323吨），较上月增加3万盎司（约合0.93吨），实现连续第14个月增持黄金。 1.地缘风险频发支撑金价反弹 2026新年伊始，地缘冲突引发国际社会广泛关注。1月3日，美军突然对委内瑞拉发起军事打击，轰炸其 境内军用机场、国防部、港口等目标，并抓捕委内瑞拉总统 ...

Economic Outlook - The U.S. GDP growth rate is expected to accelerate to 2.2% in 2026 according to the Congressional Budget Office [4] - The global economic growth rate is projected to be 2.7% in 2026 as per a United Nations report [4] Trade and Market Data - The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed to its lowest level since 2009 in October [4] - The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.86 basis points to 3.488% [4] - The 5-year U.S. Treasury yield rose by 2.78 basis points to 3.729% [4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 1.97 basis points to 4.167% [4] Industry Insights - In China, major manufacturing companies are expected to sell 235,300 excavators in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 17% [4] - OPEC maintained stable production levels in December [4] - NVIDIA has required Chinese customers to pay in full for orders of the H200 chip [4] Market Performance - The Baltic Dry Index closed at 1776.00, down 2.95% [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 23480.02, down 0.44% [5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49266.11, up 0.55% [5] - The S&P 500 closed at 6921.46, up 0.01% [5] - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26149.31, down 1.17% [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4082.98, down 0.07% [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily insights and trend analyses for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, and more. It assesses the market conditions of each commodity based on factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, macroeconomic news, and geopolitical events [2][4]. - Different commodities are expected to exhibit various trends, such as high - level fluctuations, price corrections, or stable movements. For example, gold is influenced by rising risk - aversion sentiment, while zinc shows a decline from high levels [2]. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The price of gold shows signs of recovery. Gold T+D and Comex gold 2602 had different performance in the previous trading day, with Comex gold 2602 rising by 0.47% [2][5]. - **Silver**: The price has corrected from high levels. Both domestic and international silver prices declined significantly in the previous trading day, with沪银2602 dropping by 4.26% [2][5]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: ETF holdings of platinum are flowing out, resulting in selling pressure. Palladium generally follows platinum but is slightly stronger. Both platinum and palladium prices decreased in the previous trading day [2][24]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The prices of沪铜主力合约 and伦铜3M电子盘 decreased in the previous trading day, but the decline was restricted by the reduction in LME inventory [2][8]. - **Zinc**: The price has declined from high levels. Both domestic and international zinc prices dropped, and inventory changes also affected the market [2][11]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. Although the price of沪铅主力合约 decreased by 2.78% in the previous trading day, the inventory reduction in LME provided support [2][14]. - **Tin**: The price has started to loosen from high levels. Both沪锡主力合约 and伦锡3M电子盘 prices decreased [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: Market sentiment has cooled down. The prices of沪铝主力合约 and LME aluminum 3M decreased, and the supply of alumina remains in a state of oversupply [2][21]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical uncertainties in regions such as Russia - Ukraine and Iran - Israel persist, posing short - term potential supply risks and leading to an increase in international oil prices [61]. - **PTA**: It is in a high - level fluctuating market. The processing fee of the 05 contract is relatively high. The start - up rate is expected to increase. Although polyester factories are reducing production, PTA is still in a state of inventory reduction [66]. - **MEG**: The upside potential is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium term. The domestic start - up rate remains high, and although there are some overseas device maintenance and supply adjustments, the overall supply surplus situation is difficult to change in the medium term [67]. - **Rubber**: It shows wide - range fluctuations. The price of the main rubber contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as the end of the domestic tapping season and overseas raw material prices [68][69]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center has shifted upward. The price of the main synthetic rubber contract increased, and the market is influenced by factors such as the price of butadiene and inventory changes [72]. - **LLDPE**: The proportion of standard product production remains low, and the import profit has been significantly repaired. The price of the L2605 contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as raw material prices and supply and demand [75][76]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter. The price of the PP2605 contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as cost and supply and demand [79]. - **Caustic Soda**: It shows a weak - level fluctuation. The market is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and the price increase is difficult to sustain [82][84]. - **Methanol**: It shows an oscillating movement. The price of the main contract decreased, and the market is affected by factors such as port inventory and MTO profit [96][99]. - **Urea**: It shows short - term oscillating operation. The price of the main contract decreased slightly. The market is affected by factors such as inventory and agricultural demand expectations [101][103]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term oscillation. The current valuation is relatively high, and there is an opportunity to short at high levels [105][106]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change. The price of the SA2605 contract increased slightly, and the supply remains at a high level [109][110]. - **LPG**: Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The price of the PG2602 contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as CP prices and device maintenance [112][118]. - **Propylene**: Demand is stable, and the spot price shows a slight upward trend. The price of the PL2602 contract increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as PDH start - up rate [113]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak - level fluctuation. The market is in a situation of high production and high inventory, and the price is under pressure [121]. - **Fuel Oil**: It shows a strong - level fluctuation, and there is still support at the bottom. The price of the FU2602 contract increased by 1.43% [124]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounded slightly [124]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to be exhausted, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment. The price of the main palm oil contract increased slightly [150][152]. - **Soybean Oil**: It shows a unilateral range - bound movement, and pay attention to the opportunity of price difference between contracts. The price of the main soybean oil contract decreased slightly [150]. - **Soybean Meal**: It shows an oscillating movement, waiting for the USDA report next week. The price of the DCE soybean meal 2605 contract decreased slightly [157]. - **Soybean**: It shows an adjustment and oscillation. The price of the DCE soybean 2605 contract increased slightly [157]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market. The price of the C2605 contract increased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as spot price and import situation [160][161]. - **Sugar**: It shows a range - bound arrangement. The price of the main sugar contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as global supply and demand and import policies [163][164]. - **Cotton**: It fluctuates following the overall market sentiment. The price of the CF2605 contract decreased significantly, and the market is affected by factors such as domestic and international cotton prices and downstream demand [168][170]. - **Eggs**: The sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened. The price of the egg 2602 contract increased slightly, and the price difference between contracts has changed [174]. - **Hogs**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - incremental stage. The price of the hog 2603 contract decreased slightly, and the market is affected by factors such as spot price and inventory [177][178]. - **Peanuts**: It shows an oscillating movement. The price of the PK603 contract decreased slightly, and the spot market price is relatively stable [182][183]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is relatively high, and be cautious about chasing high prices. The price of the 12605 contract decreased by 1.81% [39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures prices show wide - range fluctuations. The prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 contracts increased slightly [43]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the market, and be vigilant about the risk of positions. The prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon contracts decreased [47][49]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Events are fermenting, and the prices show high - level fluctuations. The price of the JM2605 contract increased by 2.2%, and the price of the 12605 contract decreased by 0.5% [51][52]. - **Logs**: It shows an oscillating and repeated movement. The price of the 2603 contract decreased slightly [55][56]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Lightly test long positions in the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions in the 04 contract. The prices of the EC2602 and EC2604 contracts decreased significantly [126][135]. - **Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips**: They show short - term oscillating markets. The prices of staple fiber and bottle chip contracts decreased [140]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices. The price of the OP2602 contract decreased, and the market demand is weak [143]. - **Pure Benzene**: It shows short - term oscillation mainly. The price of the BZ2603 contract decreased slightly, and the inventory has increased [147][148].

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views - Silver has fallen from its high, indicating short - term price pressure. The bullish trend of silver is facing challenges, and the long - term trend has not ended, but the current adjustment is not over [7][8][9]. - The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. The iron element shows short - term high - level fluctuations and long - term pressure, the carbon element's supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the ferroalloy has different trends for different varieties [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Silver**: Due to factors such as the easing of domestic spot premium, the decline of overseas silver lease rate, the convergence of internal and external price differences, and the strengthening of exchange risk control, the pressure for bulls to push up prices has increased. It is judged that the silver trend - following long strategy is worth exiting. The current decline does not mean the end of the long - term trend, but the current point has a poor risk - return ratio, and the adjustment is not over [8][9]. - **Black Sector**: The black sector prices are facing resistance at previous highs. For the iron element, there is long - term pressure and short - term high - level fluctuations; for the carbon element, the supply is expected to tighten in the long - term, and the price center will rise; for the ferroalloy, the manganese - silicon supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the silicon - iron is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the short - term [11][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Metals - **Gold**: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - **Silver**: High - level correction. The price has declined, and various indicators show signs of weakening in the short - term [16][20]. - **Copper**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen, but the inventory situation is a supporting factor [16][23]. - **Zinc**: High - level decline. The price and trading volume have decreased [16][26]. - **Lead**: The decrease in LME inventory limits the price decline. The price has fallen slightly, and the inventory situation affects the price [16][29]. - **Tin**: High - level loosening. The price has declined, and the market shows signs of weakness [16][33]. - **Aluminium**: Market sentiment has cooled. The price and trading volume have changed, and the overall market is weak [16][36]. - **Alumina**: The supply surplus remains unchanged [16][36]. - **Cast Aluminium Alloy**: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminium [16][36]. - **Platinum**: There is selling pressure due to the outflow of ETF holdings [16][39]. - **Palladium**: Generally follows platinum, slightly stronger [16][39]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between real - world pressure and cycle - change narratives, with wide - range fluctuations [16][43]. - **Stainless Steel**: The real - world fundamentals are a drag, and the market is mainly focused on the game of Indonesian policies [16][43]. Commodity Research Morning Report - Non - metals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Inventory has started to increase, and the demand for bargain - hunting purchases supports the price [16][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices [16][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Pessimistic sentiment is strong [16][51]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is high, and be cautious about chasing long positions [16][54]. - **Rebar**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment fluctuates, and the futures price shows wide - range fluctuations [16][58]. - **Silicon Iron**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Manganese Silicon**: There is a game between long and short positions in the futures market, and be vigilant about position risks [16][62]. - **Coke**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][66]. - **Coking Coal**: The event is developing, and the price shows high - level fluctuations [16][67]. - **Log**: The price fluctuates repeatedly [16][70]. - **Para - Xylene**: The market shows unilateral high - level fluctuations, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage of monthly differences [16][74]. - **PTA**: High - level fluctuation market [16][74]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and there is still pressure in the medium - term [16][74]. - **Rubber**: Wide - range fluctuations [16][83]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The oscillation center moves up [16][87]. - **LLDPE**: The standard product production ratio remains low, and the import profit is significantly repaired [16][90]. - **PP**: Propylene is stronger than ethylene, and there is a strong expectation of PDH maintenance in the first quarter [16][93]. - **Caustic Soda**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][96]. - **Pulp**: Oscillatory operation [16][102]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [16][107]. - **Methanol**: Oscillatory operation [16][110]. - **Urea**: Short - term oscillatory operation [16][115]. - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation [16][120]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot market has little change [16][124]. - **LPG**: Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances [16][127]. - **Propylene**: The demand is stable, and the spot price slightly increases [16][128]. - **PVC**: Weak - level fluctuations [16][136]. - **Fuel Oil**: Strong - level fluctuations, with support at the bottom [16][139]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price rises, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market rebounds slightly [16][139]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Lightly try to go long on the 02 contract for delivery; hold short positions on the 04 contract [16][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Bottle - Chip**: Short - term oscillatory market [16][155]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Short at high prices [16][158]. - **Pure Benzene**: Short - term oscillation mainly [16][162]. - **Palm Oil**: Wait for the negative factors to subside, and pay attention to the impact of macro - sentiment [16][166]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price moves in a unilateral range, and pay attention to monthly - difference opportunities [16][166]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillation, waiting for next week's USDA report [16][172]. - **Soybean**: Adjustment and oscillation [16][172]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot price [16][175]. - **Sugar**: Range consolidation mainly [16][178]. - **Cotton**: Fluctuates with the overall market sentiment [16][183]. - **Egg**: The sentiment for the far - month contract weakens [16][189]. - **Live Pig**: There is a negative feedback in demand, and the supply is entering a pre - increment stage [16][192]. - **Peanut**: Oscillatory operation [16][197].

Market Overview - International gold prices rebounded on Thursday, January 8, closing at $4,454.14 per ounce after fluctuating between a high of $4,468.32 and a low of $4,407.70 [1] - The market is currently focused on the upcoming non-farm employment report, with economists predicting an increase of 60,000 jobs and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from 4.6% to 4.5% [3] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. have shown a mild increase, indicating a relatively low level of layoffs despite ongoing labor demand weakness [3] - The New York Fed's monthly survey revealed a rise in inflation expectations to 3.4% for the coming year, up from 3.2% in November, while consumer confidence in job opportunities has dropped to a 12.5-year low [3] - Fitch Ratings has revised its GDP growth forecasts for the U.S., projecting a 2.1% growth for 2025 and 2.0% for 2026, influenced by delayed economic data due to the government shutdown [7] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Milan anticipates a 150 basis point rate cut this year to boost the labor market, suggesting that core inflation may stabilize around 2.3% [4] - The market is currently pricing in a 13.8% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in January, with an 86.2% chance of maintaining current rates [9] Geopolitical Factors - Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including U.S. actions in Venezuela, are providing support for gold prices [6] - President Trump has indicated he has made a decision regarding the next Federal Reserve Chair but has not disclosed the nominee [6] Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy suggests maintaining a cautious approach with a focus on buying on dips, as gold prices show signs of strong support [13][14]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 Energy Index rose by 3.2%, marking the largest single-day increase since April [1] - The S&P 1500 Consumer Discretionary Index increased by 1.8%, reaching a historical high [1] - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Intel dropping over 3% and Microsoft falling more than 1% [1] Group 2 - Nvidia's stock fell over 2%, resulting in a market value loss of approximately $98.9 billion (around 69 billion RMB) [1][2] - Defense stocks surged, with companies like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman seeing significant price increases following President Trump's announcement of a proposed $1.5 trillion military budget for 2027 [4] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 1.09%, with notable gains in companies like Wancloud Data and Bilibili [4] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs released a report predicting a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index and a 12% rise in the CSI 300 Index by 2026, maintaining an overweight rating on A-shares and H-shares [5] - International oil futures saw a significant increase, with WTI crude oil futures rising by 3.16% to $57.76 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures increasing by 5% to $62.96 per barrel [6] Group 4 - U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that further economic strength requires larger interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with expectations of a 150 basis point cut by 2026 [9] - Fitch Ratings anticipates two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the first half of 2026, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.25% [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the U.S. Treasury yields have generally risen, with the 10-year Treasury yield increasing by 3 basis points to 4.18% as investors await the upcoming non-farm payroll report for December 2025, which is expected to show a slight decrease in the unemployment rate from a four-year high of 4.6% to 4.5% [1][2] - The December non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be the first timely report since the government shutdown, with economists predicting an increase of 73,000 jobs, reflecting a more accurate picture of the labor market after previous data distortions due to the shutdown [1] - The Chicago Fed estimates that the unemployment rate may remain at 4.6% for December, which would support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will not lower interest rates in January [1][2] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, with most participants believing that transitioning to a more neutral policy stance is necessary to prevent severe deterioration in the labor market [2] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 were reported at 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while continuing claims rose to 1.914 million, indicating a labor market that is neither experiencing mass layoffs nor large-scale hiring [2] - The ADP employment report for December 2025 showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in the private sector, reversing the decline seen in November, although the growth was still below expectations [2]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 270.03 points, an increase of 0.55%, closing at 49,266.11 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell by 104.25 points, a decrease of 0.44%, closing at 23,480.02 points [2] - The S&P 500 index saw a marginal increase of 0.53 points, or 0.01%, closing at 6,921.46 points [2] Economic Outlook - Fitch Ratings has upgraded the U.S. GDP growth forecast for 2025 and 2026, incorporating delayed economic data due to the government shutdown [4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower the federal funds rate to 3.25% in the first half of 2026, with projections indicating a potential reduction of about 150 basis points [4] - Inflation expectations in the U.S. have risen, while consumer confidence in the job market has dropped to its lowest level in over 12 years [4] Energy Sector - Oil prices increased, with WTI crude for February rising by 3.2% to settle at $57.76 per barrel, and Brent crude for March up by 3.4% to $61.99 per barrel [5] - Energy stocks experienced a broad rally, with notable gains in companies such as ExxonMobil (up over 3%), Chevron (up over 2%), and ConocoPhillips (up over 5%) [5][6] Mining Industry - Glencore and Rio Tinto have resumed negotiations to potentially create the world's largest mining company, with a combined market value exceeding $260 billion [7] - The ongoing competition for copper resources is reshaping the mining landscape, prompting this merger discussion [7] Technology Sector - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with the U.S. Tech Seven Index declining by 0.27% [8] - Apple has seen a continuous decline for seven trading days, attributed to high interest rate expectations impacting growth stock valuations [8][10]