Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: October 21, 2024 [2] - Researchers: Wang Xizhen, Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,540 with a gain of 75, trading volume of 245,897 hands (down 43,834), and open interest of 593,229 (up 231) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,775 with a gain of 170, trading volume of 13,841 hands (up 161), and open interest of 23,282 (up 1,127) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B price was 14,728 yuan/ton, up 49; CY IndexC32S was 20,470 yuan/ton, up 30 [3] - Cot A was 75.65 cents/pound, up 75.10; FCY IndexC33S was 21,200 yuan/ton, down 18 [3] Spreads - Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was -60, up 5;棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was -20, up 95 [3] - CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,235, up 95; 1% tariff内外棉价差 was 3,273, up 1,901 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the annual US cotton production forecast, 27% slower year - on - year [6] - In September 2025, cottonseed imports were about 75,177.17 tons, down 35.84% year - on - year, with an average import price of about $342.25/ton, down 10.91% year - on - year [6] - In September, total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, up 3.0% year - on - year. Retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles above the designated size were 123.1 billion yuan, up 4.7% year - on - year [7] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition period, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production was high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm was general, with no large - scale rush to buy [8] - The peak season demand in the market was average, and the improvement in downstream demand was limited, so the peak season performance was not expected to be outstanding [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a fluctuating trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Zhengzhou cotton prices continued to rise, but the cotton yarn market was affected by weak downstream demand. The trading volume was average, and spinners and traders were cautious [11] - The cotton fabric market in October was weaker than in September, with demand remaining sluggish. Winter orders were nearing completion, and spring orders were scarce [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On October 21, 2025, CF601C13400.CZC closed at 247, up 32.1%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [15] - CF601P13000.CZC closed at 45, down 29.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.9% [15] Volatility and Strategy - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 8.542, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of relevant options varied [15] - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7255, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.6021. Both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Option strategy: Wait and see [17]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Methanol Daily Report, October 21, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] Group 2: Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market fluctuated widely, closing at 2268 (-12/-53%) [3] - Spot Market: Various regions had different price quotes, e.g., Inner Mongolia南线 at 2050 yuan/ton, North Line at 2000 yuan/ton, etc. [3] Group 3: Important Information - Northwest Methanol Orders: The weekly signed orders (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest reached 63,000 tons (6.30 million tons), an increase of 44,300 tons (4.43 million tons) from the previous statistical date, a 236.90% increase [4] Group 4: Logic Analysis - Supply: Coal - to - methanol profit was around 660 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply was continuously abundant with high and stable methanol operating rates [5] - Import: The US dollar price was stable, the import premium widened, Iranian gas was not restricted yet, most Iranian plants were operating normally, non - Iranian operating rates increased, and the overseas operating rate was high [5] - Demand: Traditional downstream industries entered the off - season with falling operating rates, while MTO device operating rates rebounded [5] - Inventory: Import arrivals decreased slightly, the port inventory accumulation cycle ended, the basis was strong, and inland enterprise inventories fluctuated slightly [5] - Overall Situation: The methanol market was mainly in a weak and volatile state under the background of high inventory, with various influencing factors such as coal prices, MTO demand, and international situations [5] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Short from high positions, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6] - Options: Sell call options [9] Group 6: Related Charts - Inventory Charts: Showed historical data of methanol port total inventory, East China port inventory, South China port inventory, sample enterprise total inventory, etc. [10] - Operating Rate Charts: Displayed historical data of coal single - methanol operating rate, coke oven gas operating rate, coal - to - olefin operating rate, etc. [14]

研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 20251021申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 摘要 | 铜： 可能偏强 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 锌： 跟随铜价走势 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜：夜盘铜价收涨。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，但冶 炼产量延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电网投资延续正增长，电源投资 | | | 铜 | 放缓；汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。印尼矿难大概率 | 可能偏强 | | | 导致全球铜供求转向缺口，长期支撑铜价。中美贸易对峙后，市场情绪逐步 | | | | 企稳。关注美元、铜冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | | | 锌：夜盘锌价收涨。短期锌精矿加工费总体回升，冶炼利润转正，冶炼产量 | | | | 有望持续回升。中钢协统计的镀锌板库存周度增加。基建投资累计增速趋 | 跟随铜价走 | | 锌 | 缓，汽车产销正增长；家电排产负增长；地产持续疲弱。由于国内外库存状 | 势 | | | 况迥异，国内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyolefin market continues to be weak, with PE and PP prices under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances and weakening cost support [1][2][3] - For PE, the continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand fundamentals, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. For PP, the weakening is dragged down by falling crude oil and propane prices, along with a loose supply - demand pattern [2][3] - The report suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, and provides strategies for inter - period and inter - variety trading [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6879 yuan/ton (+5), PP main contract at 6565 yuan/ton (+14). LL North China spot was 6880 yuan/ton (+30), LL East China spot at 6950 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 6580 yuan/ton (+10). LL North China basis was 1 yuan/ton (+25), LL East China basis 71 yuan/ton (-5), PP East China basis 15 yuan/ton (-4) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (-2.2%), PP开工率 was 78.2% (+0.5%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 492.1 yuan/ton (-17.4), PP oil - based production profit was - 127.9 yuan/ton (-17.4), PDH - based PP production profit was 110.2 yuan/ton (-21.6) [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 150.2 yuan/ton (+0.3), PP import profit was - 573.0 yuan/ton (-49.7), PP export profit was 31.3 US dollars/ton (+6.2) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 42.9% (+7.3%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.2% (-0.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 44.3% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.2% (+0.5%) [1] Market Analysis - **PE**: Recent continuous decline is due to loose supply - demand, post - holiday inventory accumulation, and weakening cost support from falling crude oil prices. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up limitedly, and cost support weakens. Monitor cost and macro - policy impacts [2] - **PP**: The weakening of the futures market is due to falling crude oil and propane prices and a loose supply - demand pattern. Supply is expected to increase with new device startups. Demand follows up insufficiently, and cost support weakens. Monitor propane supply and PDH device operation [3] Strategy - **Single - side**: Wait and see; short - term weak and volatile, focus on macro - dynamics [4] - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4] - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight pattern has improved, part of the demand was released ahead of schedule in mid - to - late September, there is a large pressure for lead ingot inventory accumulation, and prices may be under pressure. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. There is a need to be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead Price and Market Data - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.15% from the previous day; SHFE lead futures main contract closed at 17,060 yuan/ton, down 0.09% [1]. - SHFE lead basis was - 135 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of 41.78 dollars/ton, up 0.07 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 27,656 lots, down 30.24%; open interest was 38,195 lots, down 5.03% [1]. - LME inventory was 247,300 tons, unchanged; SHFE lead warrant inventory was 29,265 tons, down 8.78% [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures closed at 1,994 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME lead price ratio was 8.56, down 1.22% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, refined lead exports decreased by 46% month - on - month, imports decreased by 17.17% month - on - month. Starting lead - acid battery exports decreased by 4.14% month - on - month, imports increased by 74.41% month - on - month [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 41.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 155,573 lots, an increase of 2,687 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, not having a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some smelters have maintenance plans, and the operation rate of primary lead fluctuates slightly. For secondary lead, smelters that had previous maintenance are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has not improved significantly, the peak - season effect has not been reflected, dealers mainly digest inventory, and manufacturers produce according to sales [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]. Zinc Price and Market Data - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 21,800 yuan/ton, up 0.09% from the previous day; SHFE zinc futures main contract closed at 21,855 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - SHFE zinc basis was - 55 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a premium of 230.29 dollars/ton, up 93.44 dollars [1]. - Futures active contract trading volume was 86,404 lots, down 2.57%; open interest was 65,610 lots, down 15.04% [1]. - LME inventory was 37,325 tons, unchanged; SHFE zinc warrant inventory was 66,419 tons, down 1.33% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures closed at 2,976 dollars/ton, up 1.14%; SHFE - LME zinc price ratio was 7.34, down 0.94% [1]. Industry Information - In September 2025, zinc concentrate imports were 505,400 tons (physical tons), a month - on - month increase of 8.15% (38,000 physical tons) and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. The cumulative zinc concentrate imports from January to September were 4,008,000 tons (physical tons), a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [1]. - In September 2025, refined zinc imports were 22,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,000 tons or 11.6%, and a year - on - year decrease of 57%. The cumulative refined zinc imports from January to September were 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 19.3%. In September, refined zinc exports were 2,500 tons [1]. - On October 17, [LME 0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 136.85 dollars/ton, and the open interest was 224,271 lots, a decrease of 279 lots [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees continue to rise. Last week, domestic zinc concentrate processing fees fell to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the import zinc ore processing fee index rose to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic ores have an advantage, and smelters mainly purchase domestic ores. Domestic TC in October may still decline. On the supply side, smelter profits and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. On the demand side, there is no significant improvement. As the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate, the zinc ingot export window is expected to open [1]. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1].

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern with supply affected by equipment maintenance, downstream low - price restocking, and insufficient fundamental drivers. The market supply - demand imbalance persists. The contract shows signs of bottom - building and is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance. The post - festival factory inventory remains high, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but excessive short - selling is not advisable. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On October 21, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated. The closing price was 1,219 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 36,196 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decline. The alkali plant inventory reached 1.705 million tons, at a low level in the past six months. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of September was 881,000 tons, a 11.86% increase from the previous period. The demand for heavy soda ash changed little [8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly due to the lack of substantial positive factors [8]. Glass - **Market Data**: On October 21, FG601 closed at 1,091 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.41%; FG603 closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.27% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Float glass production was stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level this year. The post - festival factory inventory remained high, and the real - estate market showed no signs of stabilization [9]. - **Outlook**: The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, soda ash active contract price trend, glass active contract price trend, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20]

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13465 with a gain of 130, volume of 289,731 (increase of 109660), and open interest of 592,998 (increase of 6531); CF05 closed at 13530 with a gain of 140, volume of 82,594 (increase of 42113), and open interest of 196,748 (increase of 18170); CF09 closed at 13700 with a gain of 135, volume of 635 (increase of 136), and open interest of 1,918 (increase of 238); CY01 closed at 19605 with a gain of 135, volume of 13680 (increase of 1115), and open interest of 22155 (increase of 1484); CY05 closed at 19720 with a gain of 130, volume of 7 (increase of 7), and open interest of 20 (increase of 2); CY09 closed at 19900 with a gain of 155, volume of 1 (increase of 1), and open interest of 4 (no change) [3] - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 14679 yuan/ton (up 15), CY IndexC32S was 20440 (no change), Cot A was 75.10 cents/pound, FCY IndexC33S was 21218 (up 4), (FC Index):M: to - port price was 73.40 (no change), Indian S - 6 was 55800 (no change), polyester staple fiber was 7450 (up 70), pure polyester yarn T32S was 10950 (down 50), viscose staple fiber was 13000 (no change), and viscose yarn R30S was 17250 (no change) [3] - Spreads: Cotton 1 - 5 month spread was - 65 (down 10), 5 - 9 month spread was - 170 (up 5), 9 - 1 month spread was 235 (up 5);棉纱 1 - 5 month spread was - 115 (up 5), 5 - 9 month spread was - 180 (down 25), 9 - 1 month spread was 295 (up 20); CY01 - CF01 spread was 6140 (up 5), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6190 (down 10), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6200 (up 20); 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 3224 (up 1852), sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 1609 (up 1094), internal - external yarn spread was - 778 (down 4) [3] Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - On October 20, 2025, the Xinjiang - outbound cotton road transport price index was 0.1797 yuan/ton·km, up 0.06% month - on - month. Transport demand and capacity resources both decreased slightly, and the index is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [6] - In September 2025, China's cotton cloth imports were 3628.19 million meters (up 17.58% year - on - year, down 8.28% month - on - month), 4603.92 tons (up 11.63% year - on - year, down 0.32% month - on - month), and the import value was 28.0053 million US dollars (down 2.47% year - on - year, up 2.23% month - on - month) [6] - As of the week ending October 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 376,700 tons, accounting for 12% of the estimated annual US cotton production, 27% slower than the same period last year. Upland cotton inspection volume was 376,100 tons (13.37% progress, 27% slower), and Pima cotton inspection volume was 600 tons (1% progress, 92% slower) [6] Trading Logic - During the festival, as new cotton entered the acquisition stage, the market focus shifted to the opening price of new cotton. This year, Xinjiang cotton production is high and ginning mills' acquisition enthusiasm is average, with no large - scale rush to buy. Some acquisition prices are around 6 yuan/kg. As new cotton is widely available, there will be selling - hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is average, and the improvement in downstream demand is limited, so the peak season performance this year is not expected to be outstanding, and the boost to the futures market will be limited [7] Trading Strategy - Single - side: US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and Zhengzhou cotton is also expected to show a volatile trend [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - From last week's market sales, fabric mills reported that trading in October was worse than in September. Fabric mills generally expect to maintain just - in - time sales in October, and the market is unlikely to exceed that in September. Currently, the operating rate of knitting circular machine factories in the Guangdong market is mostly 20% - 30%, and the probability of a rebound in the operating rate is high. Fabric mills have low expectations for the market in the second half of the month [8] - On Friday night, Zhengzhou cotton opened and closed higher, and cotton yarn futures followed suit, with the market warming up. There was little change in the trading of pure cotton yarn over the weekend [9] Group 3: Options - Option data: On October 20, 2025, for the option contract CF601C13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 199.00 (up 40.1%); for CF601P13000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 53.00 (down 36.9%); for CF601P12400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 13465.00, the closing price was 17.00 (down 20.5%) [12] - Volatility: The 120 - day HV of cotton on this day was 8.542, with a slight decline compared to the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 9.3%, CF601 - P - 13000 was 10.9%, and CF601 - P - 12400 was 13.9% [12] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7151, and the volume PCR was 0.7237. Both call and put option volumes increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [13] Group 4: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread and CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [13][18][19][25]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Sugar**: Global sugar production is expected to be high, pressuring sugar prices. However, as the sugar - ethanol price difference narrows, ethanol production provides stronger support for raw sugar. The international market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. In the domestic market, supply - demand factors are bearish, but cost - side support is strengthening, and it is also expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Pulp**: Overseas broadleaf pulp is strong, driving up domestic broadleaf pulp prices. The downstream demand for pulp may improve, but global shipping data shows high supply, and the supply pressure in the Chinese market may remain high. The macro - sentiment improvement boosts low - valued pulp, but caution is needed regarding the upside potential [4]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price of offset paper is stable, and there are expectations of improved demand in the peak season, which supports the futures price. However, the high production capacity may limit the price rebound. Attention can be paid to inter - month reverse spreads and long - pulp short - paper arbitrage [5]. - **Cotton**: The external market price of cotton is expected to be under pressure. In the domestic market, the new - season cotton harvest is progressing, and the production increase is basically certain. There are still pressures on the export side, and the futures price is expected to be weakly volatile [6]. - **Apple**: The supply - side bullish factors of apples have been somewhat realized, and the market is in high - level fluctuations. The poor performance of the good - fruit rate provides support for the far - month contracts [7]. - **Jujube**: The futures price of jujubes rebounded last week. The spot inventory is being depleted, and the price has a seasonal rebound. The current weather is favorable for new - season jujube production [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, recommend going long on the far - month contract; for Jujube 2601, recommend taking profits on long positions at high prices [17]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, recommend temporary observation; for Pulp 2511, recommend shorting within the range; for Offset Paper 2601, recommend shorting on rebounds; for Cotton 2601, recommend shorting at high prices [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review 3.2.1 Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple 2601 | 8625 | - 119 | - 1.36% | | Jujube 2601 | 11420 | 275 | 2.47% | | Sugar 2601 | 5412 | - 84 | - 1.53% | | Pulp 2511 | 4838 | 50 | 1.04% | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4202 | 8 | 0.19% | | Cotton 2601 | 13335 | 10 | 0.08% | [18] 3.2.2 Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 3.75 | 0.00 | 0.50 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5790 | 0 | - 750 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5550 | 0 | - 600 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14679 | 15 | - 801 | [25] 3.3 Third Part: Sector Basis Situation The report provides basis charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, Pulp, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [34][37][38][41]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation The report provides inter - month spread charts for Apple, Jujube, Sugar, and Cotton, but no specific data analysis is presented [43][45][47]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8418 | - 20 | - 1300 | | Pulp | 227023 | - 445 | - 176569 | | Cotton | 2653 | - 71 | - 1321 | [48] 3.6 Sixth Part: Option - Related Data 3.6.1 Apple Options - Market logic: New - season apple listing performance is below expectations, and far - month contracts have strong support. - Option strategy: Sell far - month put options [49]. 3.6.2 Sugar Options - Market logic: Cost support exists, but the fundamental situation is mainly bearish. - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddle option strategy [49]. 3.6.3 Cotton Options - Market logic: The concentrated listing of new - season cotton exerts obvious pressure, and the short - term futures price may show a weak trend. - Option strategy: Sell out - of - the - money call options [49]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation 3.7.1 Apple - **Weather in Producing Areas**: The report provides temperature and precipitation charts for Shandong and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [62][63]. - **Export Situation**: The report provides a chart of monthly apple export volume, but no specific analysis is presented [64][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: The report provides charts of weekly apple storage inventories in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi, but no specific analysis is presented [66][67]. 3.7.2 Jujube The report provides charts of weekly jujube trading volumes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in the Guangdong Ruyifang market, but no specific analysis is presented [68][69]. 3.7.3 Sugar The report provides charts of national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and sugar spot - futures spread, but no specific analysis is presented [70][71][73][75]. 3.7.4 Pulp The report provides charts of domestic four - port pulp inventory, global producer wood pulp inventory days, pulp product weekly production, and monthly import volume of broadleaf and coniferous pulp, but no specific analysis is presented [77][82][83]. 3.7.5 Offset Paper The report provides charts of offset paper capacity utilization rate, weekly production, enterprise inventory, and apparent consumption, but no specific analysis is presented [84][85]. 3.7.6 Cotton The report provides charts of retail sales and inventory data of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories, import volume, and textile industry - related data, but no specific analysis is presented [86][87][88]

Group 1: Overall Information - Report period: October 20 - 24, 2025 [1] - Reported futures varieties: Rebar and iron ore [2] Group 2: Rebar Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of rebar futures is in a sideways consolidation range [7] - Trend judgment logic: Weekly rebar production is 2.01 million tons, apparent consumption is 2.19 million tons, major steel mill inventory is 1.84 million tons, and social inventory is 6.81 million tons [7] - Mid - term strategy: Consider a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 3330, a ground line of 2882, a grid spacing of 32, and a grid quantity of 14 [7] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The main contract of rebar futures entered an oscillatory consolidation range [10] - This week's strategy: The main contract of rebar futures enters a sideways consolidation range, and a large - grid trading strategy can be considered [11] - Spot enterprise hedging advice: Wait and see until the mid - term trend becomes clear [12] 3. Related Data - Data includes variety diagnosis and selected indicators, but specific data is not detailed in the provided text [21][23] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures 1. Mid - term Market Analysis - Mid - term trend: The main contract of iron ore futures is in a sideways consolidation stage [29] - Trend judgment logic: In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipping volume last week was 3.207 million tons, the arrival volume at 45 major Chinese ports was 3.045 million tons, steel enterprise inventory was 8.982 million tons, and domestic major port inventory was 14.278 million tons [29] - Mid - term strategy: Consider implementing a grid trading strategy [29] 2. Variety Trading Strategy - Last week's strategy review: The iron ore mid - term price was in an oscillatory consolidation stage [32] - This week's strategy: The AI intelligent system suggests implementing a grid trading strategy with an antenna of 872, a ground line of 732, a grid spacing of 10, and a grid quantity of 14 [33] 3. Related Data - Data includes variety diagnosis and selected indicators, but specific data is not detailed in the provided text [44][48]