2025年11月23日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：钢价承压低位震荡，但下方想象力有限 | 2 | | 工业硅：仓单去化，盘面底部支撑明显 | 11 | | 多晶硅：临近注销期，关注近月合约 | 11 | | 碳酸锂：月末下游补库、矿山复工预期，多空博弈加剧 | 20 | | 棕榈油：产地去库存疑，警惕二次下探 | 28 | | 豆油：区间震荡运行，豆棕维持做扩 | 28 | | 豆粕：关注中方采购美豆，盘面或震荡 | 34 | | 豆一：关注豆类市场情绪，盘面震荡 | 34 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 39 | | 白糖：关注进口政策变化 | 45 | | 棉花：预计短期维持震荡走势 | 52 | | 生猪：供应增量预期显现，近端期现共振下行 | 59 | | 花生：关注油厂入市情况 | 65 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 11 月 23 日 镍：累库节奏稍有放缓，宏观与消息短线扰动 不锈钢：钢 ...

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Group 1 - ICE raw sugar futures declined by 1.27% this week [1] - ICE white sugar futures decreased by 0.40% [1] - ICE Arabica coffee futures fell by 1.03% [1] - Robusta coffee futures increased by 6.96% [1] - New York cocoa futures dropped by 5.50%, closing at $5157 per ton [1] - London cocoa futures decreased by 5.29% [1] - ICE cotton futures fell by 0.31% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 8800 - 9400, and polysilicon's main contract will mainly fluctuate in the short - term, with the range of 51000 - 56000 [6]. - Next week, the demand side of industrial silicon remains weak, although some sub - sectors have stable demand, it's difficult to change the overall pattern and restrains price increase. The supply contraction of polysilicon will continue next week, providing some bottom support for prices, but the demand side is also weak and hard to drive price increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: As of November 20, industrial silicon rose 0.61% this week, and polysilicon fell 2.95%. The industrial silicon futures market first rose and then fell. Polysilicon first rose slightly and then declined [6]. - **Market Outlook for Industrial Silicon**: Supply may further decrease due to the dry season. Organic silicon's actual procurement demand for industrial silicon has decreased, and polysilicon enterprises mainly purchase industrial silicon for rigid needs. The demand for industrial silicon from the aluminum alloy industry is growing steadily but cannot make up for the weakness in other fields [6]. - **Market Outlook for Polysilicon**: The supply contraction will continue. The demand from the photovoltaic industry shows a differentiated pattern of "weak terminal, stable middle". The overall demand is weak [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: As of November 20, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was 9075 yuan/ton, and the polysilicon futures price was 52450 yuan/ton [12]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot price increased, and the basis increased. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis was 475 yuan/ton. Polysilicon's spot and futures prices increased, and the basis weakened. As of November 20, 2025, the spot price was 52.3 yuan/kg, and the basis was - 150 yuan/kg [19][26]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 20, 2025, the national industrial silicon production was about 78,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 54.06% [30]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: During November 13 - 20, 2025, the electricity price in the southwest region increased, while that in the northwest remained stable. The cost of industrial silicon increased [35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 20, 2025, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 43,297 lots, a decrease of 2369 lots from the previous period [39]. - **Organic Silicon**: As of November 20, 2025, the weekly production of organic silicon was 47,500 tons (0% increase), and the weekly operating rate was 72.18% (0% increase). The cost, spot price, and profit of organic silicon increased, and the production is expected to remain unchanged [46][52]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of November 20, 2025, the aluminum alloy price was 21,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the inventory was 75,200 tons, an increase of 3100 tons from the previous week. The demand for industrial silicon is expected to weaken [60]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: As of November 20, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.44 yuan/piece, a decrease of 0.03 yuan/piece from the previous week, and the battery cell price was 0.29 yuan/watt, a decrease of 0.00 yuan/watt from the previous week. The demand for polysilicon is expected to be negative [64]. - **Polysilicon Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: As of November 20, the polysilicon profit was 11,880 yuan/ton, the average cost was 40,888 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 265,700 tons [71].

Core Viewpoint - The glass futures market has experienced a significant downturn, with the main contract price falling below the critical threshold of 1000 yuan/ton for the first time in over four months, raising concerns about the market's bottom and future trends [1] Market Performance - The glass futures market has shown weak performance, with the main contract price dropping over 2% in early trading on November 21 [1] - After the National Day holiday, production companies initiated price cuts to alleviate inventory pressure, leading to a decline in the average transaction price of large glass sheets in the Shahe region from approximately 1237 yuan/ton in early October to around 1117 yuan/ton by the end of October [3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite some manufacturers starting cold repairs to adjust supply, the impact has been minimal, and the speed of supply adjustment is lagging behind the decline in demand [4] - Glass companies and midstream traders have significantly higher inventory levels compared to the same period last year, contributing to a persistent supply-demand imbalance [4] - The real estate sector's downturn has directly affected glass demand, with downstream processing companies facing insufficient orders, as indicated by a drop in order days to 9.9 days, a record low [8] Future Outlook - In the short term, the glass market lacks clear driving forces, and a weak trend is likely to continue; however, prices are at a low point, and expectations for further cold repairs may stimulate some mid-to-downstream demand [11] - The recovery of the glass industry in the medium to long term will depend on the extent of supply-side capacity adjustments and the recovery of demand from the real estate market [11] - Market participants should closely monitor changes in supply-side production cuts and real estate policy developments, as well as potential technical rebound risks [11]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.21」 热轧卷板市场周报 成本支撑减弱 热卷期价震荡偏弱 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至11月21日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3270（+14），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3320（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量小幅上调。316.01（+2.35），（同比+4.16）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求增加。本期表需324.42（+10.83），（同比+8.82）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增、社库降。总库存402.11（-8.41），（同比+86.88）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.66%，环比上周减少1.30个百分点，同比去年减少16.89个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布10月28日至29日的联邦公开市场委员会（FOM ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 21 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 现实格局偏弱，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.07%日涨幅，量仓收缩。现阶段， 螺纹需求有所好转，但持续性存疑，相反供应也在回升，供需双增局面 下螺纹基本面表现依旧不佳，钢价继续承压，相对利好的是估值偏低， 预计走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来看， 热卷供需格局有所好转，库存再度去化，但供应压力未解，且需求韧性 存疑，基本 ...

Core Points - The first "Golden Bull to Win" National Futures Trading Competition is set to launch, organized by China Securities Journal, with the official start date in January 2026 [1] - The competition will feature both real and simulated trading events, aiming for long-term engagement in the futures market [1] - The event emphasizes the importance of the futures market in providing authoritative price references for commodities, enhancing resource allocation, and stabilizing market operations [1] Group 1 - The competition aims to create a professional platform that integrates market resources, fostering a shared and win-win futures ecosystem [1] - It is designed to enhance participants' trading capabilities in both stock and futures markets, thereby improving their investment profitability [1] - Futures companies sponsoring the event will gain designated trading merchant qualifications, highlighting the competitive nature of the industry [1] Group 2 - The competition will feature two main award categories: "comprehensive" and "sector-specific," along with monthly and quarterly incentive awards [1] - Continuous updates about the competition will be provided through various platforms, including China Securities Journal's official website and social media [2]

| 业期现日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 | 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月21日 | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | | | | | | | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | 11月20日 | 11月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | 品种 | | | | | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9550 | 9450 | 100 | 1.06% | 墓差 (通室S15530章准) | 475 | 60 | 415 | 691.67% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9750 | 9800 | 50 | 0.51% | 元/吨 | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | -75 | -440 | 82.95% | 365 | | 新疆99硅 | 9000 | 8850 | 1.69% | 120 | 基差(新疆) | 725 | 260 | 465 | 178.85% | | | 月间价差 | 合约 | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton closed flat on Thursday at 63.78 cents/pound, CF601 rose 0.15% to 13,465 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest decreased by 8,504 lots to 544,900 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index was 14,340 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day. The US non - farm payrolls data exceeded expectations, reducing the probability of a 25bp Fed rate cut in December to around 40%, pressuring the US cotton price. Zhengzhou cotton maintained a sideways trend, with the main contract's open interest decreasing for two consecutive days and the 05 contract's increasing. There is currently high supply pressure and commercial inventory is accumulating rapidly, but there is also support from cost, demand, and expectations. The cotton price is unlikely to fall below the previous low again, and the supply pressure will gradually ease over time. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton lacks a directional driver and is expected to trade sideways [1]. - Sugar: China's imports of syrup and premixed sugar powder in October were 115,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 110,300 tons. The spot price of new sugar in Guangxi was 5,600 - 5,660 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of old sugar from a Yunnan sugar - making group was 5,440 - 5,490 yuan/ton, and the new sugar price was 5,390 - 5,590 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream price range of processed sugar was 5,750 - 5,890 yuan/ton, with some prices down 20 yuan/ton. Raw sugar trading is guided by the crushing progress in India and Thailand, and with no new news, it is expected to trade sideways. More domestic sugar mills have started crushing, resulting in sufficient supply. Although imports of syrup and premixed powder in October decreased significantly, they were still higher than market expectations. The market has significant differences in views on the future, and the price shows no sign of bottoming out and is expected to continue to decline [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the main contract basis was 1,326 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton. The spot price in Xinjiang was 14,563 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton, and the national spot price was 14,791 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 47 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. Some sugar data sources had missing values [2]. 2. Market Information - Cotton: On November 20, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3,503, a decrease of 17 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 1,147. The arrival prices of cotton in different domestic regions on that day were: 14,563 yuan/ton in Xinjiang, 14,826 yuan/ton in Henan, 14,848 yuan/ton in Shandong, and 14,902 yuan/ton in Zhejiang. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.1, down 0.1 from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.6, up 0.1; the short - fiber fabric comprehensive load was 51.8, unchanged; and the short - fiber fabric comprehensive inventory was 29.7, up 0.1 [2][3]. - Sugar: On November 20, the number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 7,982, a decrease of 446 from the previous trading day, and the valid forecasts were 183 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts for cotton and sugar, including the closing price, basis, contract spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and price index of the main contracts, but no specific analysis of the charts is provided [6][14]