Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No core viewpoints are presented in the given content. It mainly consists of various commodity futures data. Summary by Commodity Categories 1. Power Coal - Provided power coal basis data from January 7 - 14, 2026, with the basis on January 13 being -100 yuan/ton [2] 2. Energy and Chemicals Energy Commodities - Presented basis data of fuel oil, crude oil, and asphalt from January 7 - 13, 2026, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt [7] Chemical Commodities - Showed cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol from January 7 - 13, 2026 [9][10] 3. Black Metals - Provided cross - period, cross - variety, and basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal from January 7 - 13, 2026 [19][20][21] 4. Non - ferrous Metals Domestic Market - Presented domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from January 7 - 13, 2026 [30] London Market - Showed LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF, domestic spot price, and import profit/loss data of LME non - ferrous metals on January 13, 2026 [33] 5. Agricultural Products - Provided basis, cross - period, and cross - variety data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar, and cotton from January 7 - 13, 2026 [38] 6. Stock Index Futures - Presented basis and cross - period data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from January 7 - 13, 2026 [49][51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The futures price of LLDPE has continued to rise, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. Spot prices are actively rising, and the basis in East China has strengthened and turned positive. However, downstream product profits are compressed, and the market is affected by factors such as raw material prices, supply, and demand [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of L2605 yesterday was 6766, with a daily increase of 0.43%. The trading volume was 631,718, and the open interest decreased by 13,392. The 05 - contract basis was - 66 (compared to - 87 the previous day), and the 05 - 09 contract spread was - 36 (compared to - 35 the previous day) [1] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6700 yuan/ton, 6750 yuan/ton, and 6850 yuan/ton respectively yesterday, up from 6650 yuan/ton, 6650 yuan/ton, and 6780 yuan/ton the previous day [1] 3.2 Spot News - The futures rally continued, leading to short - term tightening of spot liquidity. PE spot prices actively rose, and the basis in East China strengthened and turned positive. Downstream product profits were compressed, but rigid demand orders were maintained, and the trading volume of traders improved significantly. The overseas offer increased, and the forward import profit was opened, but downstream factories were mostly cautious [1] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The price of crude oil, the raw material, has stabilized and fluctuated, while the ethylene monomer segment has weakened, and the profits of PE ethylene and ethane processes have improved. The PE futures price has continued to rebound, with most transactions concentrated in the middle reaches, and downstream buyers have not chased the rising price to replenish stocks. The demand for agricultural films in the near - term downstream has weakened, while the rigid demand in the packaging film industry has been maintained. After the recent price decline, the willingness of middle and downstream players to hold positions has weakened, and upstream producers have sold at discounted prices at the end of the year, resulting in a slight reduction in factory inventories, and the basis has been weak. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical has gradually started production, and the planned maintenance in January has decreased compared to the previous month. Some FD has switched back to standard products, and the supply - demand pressure caused by high existing production capacity and weakening demand still needs to be noted in the medium term [2] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LLDPE is 0 [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and it weakened slightly after the holiday. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low but remained weak year - on - year. The high - sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil had a significant inventory build - up, the high - sulfur floating storage had a significant drawdown, ARA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up, Fujairah's residual fuel oil had an inventory drawdown, the high - sulfur floating storage had an inventory drawdown, and EIA's residual fuel oil had a slight inventory build - up. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short - term positive and long - term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics interruption. The arrival premium of Merey crude oil at the end of December remained around - 12. The high - sulfur spot market remained loose, and attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium and discount of heavy raw materials recently. The low - sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 19.81, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 9.97, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by 1.23, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 26.90, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.93, LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 decreased by 9.84 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 26.04, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 23.27, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 10.53, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 3.65, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 1.87, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 16.48 [1][9]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, the high - sulfur internal - external price difference decreased by 1.0, and the low - sulfur internal - external price difference increased by 3.6. The data for FOB 380cst, FOB VLSFO, and 380 basis on January 13 were not provided [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, FU 01 increased by 15, FU 05 increased by 4, FU 09 increased by 15, FU 01 - 05 increased by 11, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 11, and FU 09 - 01 remained unchanged [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 7 to January 13, 2026, LU 01 increased by 24, LU 05 increased by 44, LU 09 increased by 31, LU 01 - 05 decreased by 20, LU 05 - 09 increased by 13, and LU 09 - 01 increased by 7 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical risks continue to support crude oil prices, and the chemical industry is over - valued, so it should be treated with a volatile mindset. The industry may continue to fluctuate strongly, but it is not recommended to chase more [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt, and attention should be paid to risks in Iran. The supply pressure persists, but the geopolitical premium fluctuates. The price of oil will continue to fluctuate under the balance of oversupply and frequent geopolitical disruptions. Short - term focus is on the risk of price surges related to Iranian geopolitics [4][7]. - **Logic**: Expectations of increased sanctions by the US on Russia or Iran fuel supply concerns, and the situation in Iran is highly uncertain. The US - Venezuela crude oil trade may increase, and there may be a potential impact of Venezuelan sanctioned oil on the compliant oil market. Geopolitical prospects in Russia - Ukraine, Iran, and Venezuela are the core factors affecting crude oil supply expectations [7]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. Supply pressure continues, but the geopolitical premium is unstable, so it should be viewed as volatile in the short term [4][7][8]. 3.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is oscillating in an over - valued range [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ will suspend production increases in Q1. The US is cooperating with Venezuela to receive its oil, and partial sanctions on Venezuela are lifted. This supports asphalt costs but may lead to sufficient supply in the long - term. Hainan's asphalt production has increased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak with inventory accumulation and reduced demand [9]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating downward. The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and its medium - to long - term valuation is expected to decline [9]. 3.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of high - sulfur fuel oil futures has declined due to the pressure from Venezuelan heavy oil [4]. - **Logic**: OPEC+ suspends production increases in Q1. Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the US, increasing heavy - oil supply. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is suppressed by high - level floating storage in the Asia - Pacific region, and its substitution by natural gas and photovoltaic energy [9]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. The expected increase in Venezuelan oil production will put long - term pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil, but short - term support comes from the US - Iran conflict [11]. 3.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures is oscillating upward [4]. - **Logic**: It follows the upward trend of crude oil. There are some supporting factors, but it also faces challenges such as reduced shipping demand, substitution by green energy, and high - sulfur fuel substitution. Its valuation is low and it is expected to follow crude oil price movements [12]. - **Outlook**: Volatile. It is affected by green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand, but its current low valuation means it will fluctuate with crude oil [12]. 3.5 Methanol - **View**: Methanol is expected to be stable with a weakening trend, as inventory pressure is significant and MTO demand is weak [4]. - **Logic**: The domestic supply is relatively abundant, while downstream demand is weak. Port inventory is high, and there are plans for some MTO plants to shut down, which may further weaken demand [28]. - **Outlook**: Weakening in the short term [28]. 3.6 Urea - **View**: The actual trading volume has slowed down, and urea is oscillating and consolidating [4]. - **Logic**: The supply remains at a high level of around 200,000 tons per day, while the procurement from traders and compound fertilizer factories has slowed down, resulting in a lack of trading enthusiasm [29]. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. Without a significant change in fundamentals, the market is closely related to order transactions. It may be stable with a weakening trend in the short term [29]. 3.7 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: The arrival of foreign vessels is concentrated, and inventory tank capacity is tight [4]. - **Logic**: The recent arrival of a large number of vessels has led to a significant increase in inventory, causing the spot basis to weaken and reducing traders' willingness to hold goods [20][22]. - **Outlook**: The price will be range - bound in the short term, and the long - term inventory pressure is still large, so the rebound height is limited [22]. 3.8 PX - **View**: The loosening of polyester demand exerts pressure on upstream raw materials [4]. - **Logic**: International oil prices are rising, and naphtha prices are increasing due to cost factors. Although PTA demand provides some support, the supply from domestic and foreign PX plants is increasing. The short - term PX profit is adjusting downward from a high level [13]. - **Outlook**: The PX price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support around 7000 - 7100 yuan/ton. The profit decline is limited [13]. 3.9 PTA - **View**: There are concentrated reports of polyester production cuts, putting pressure on the basis and processing fees [4]. - **Logic**: The upstream cost still provides some support, and the PTA supply - demand situation is currently stable. However, the concentrated production cuts in the downstream polyester industry may lead to a weaker basis and limited processing fee space [14]. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate with costs. In the medium term, consider going long on the TA05 contract on dips, and short - term shorting in the 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton range. Look for positive spreads on TA05 - 09 on dips [15]. 3.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price fluctuation has narrowed, and the sales are stable [4]. - **Logic**: The cost of upstream polyester raw materials has slightly declined, and the short - fiber price is range - bound. The downstream sales have improved slightly, and the market demand is stable [23][24]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber price will follow the movement of upstream raw materials, and the processing fee is under some pressure [24]. 3.11 Bottle Chip - **View**: More plants are under maintenance in January, and profit support is strengthening [4]. - **Logic**: The price of upstream raw materials has slightly declined, and the bottle - chip market price has followed the cost movement. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the profit is expected to recover. The inventory is expected to decline smoothly before the festival, and the processing fee has stronger support [25]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price will fluctuate with raw materials, and the processing fee has stronger support at the bottom [25]. 3.12 Styrene - **View**: Driven by exports and a positive market atmosphere, styrene has been oscillating strongly recently [4]. - **Logic**: Exports are good, with confirmed exports of 48,000 tons in January and 12,000 tons in February. Port inventory has decreased, and market sentiment is positive. Macro and crude oil factors are also positive. The supply - demand situation is favorable in January, but there may be a risk of price correction if there is an unexpected increase in supply [18]. - **Outlook**: If there is no significant increase in supply or major negative news from crude oil, it will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, driven by repeated export news [18]. 3.13 PVC - **View**: There is a short - term "rush to export", which supports PVC [4]. - **Logic**: The export tax rebate for PVC will be cancelled on April 1st, leading to a short - term "rush to export". However, the long - term inventory pressure is large. Domestically, supply elasticity has increased, while overseas, the US Olin VCM plant has restarted. Downstream demand is seasonally weak, and the sustainability of "rush to export" orders is uncertain [37]. - **Outlook**: The short - term "rush to export" supports the price, but the long - term price may face pressure due to the possible poor sustainability of exports and high inventory [38]. 3.14 Caustic Soda - **View**: It has a low valuation and weak expectations, and is operating weakly [4]. - **Logic**: The production remains high, and inventory pressure is large. Demand from the alumina industry is weak, and non - aluminum downstream demand is also poor. Although the price of liquid chlorine limits the decline of caustic soda, the overall supply - demand situation is under pressure [39]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand situation remains under pressure, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating, with the decline limited by liquid chlorine [39]. 3.15 LLDPE - **View**: Driven by a positive macro sentiment, LLDPE is oscillating upward [33]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors continue to affect supply expectations. The futures price has rebounded slightly due to macro expectations and positive market sentiment, but the profit of various production methods has slightly recovered, and the downstream demand is in the off - season [33]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [33]. 3.16 PP - **View**: Boosted by the macro environment but with reduced downstream trading volume, PP is oscillating upward [34]. - **Logic**: Oil prices are oscillating, and geopolitical factors affect supply expectations. The macro environment is positive for PP, but the downstream is in the off - season, and the trading volume has decreased after the price rebound. The short - term maintenance rate has slightly decreased [34]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [34]. 3.17 PL - **View**: Some downstream plants have restarted, and PL is oscillating upward [35]. - **Logic**: PDH maintenance expectations provide support. Propylene enterprise inventory is controllable, and downstream demand has increased slightly. However, the demand is still limited in the off - season [35]. - **Outlook**: Volatile in the short term [35]. 3.18 Indexes - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index, the commodity 20 index, the industrial products index, and the PPI commodity index all showed an upward trend on January 12, 2026, with increases of 1.57%, 1.85%, 1.27%, and 1.31% respectively [287]. - **Energy Index**: On January 12, 2026, the energy index was 1102.68, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a 5 - day increase of 1.45%, a 1 - month increase of 0.52%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48% [288].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the holiday, the 380 cracking spread fluctuated, and after the holiday, it weakened slightly. The 380 monthly spread rebounded from its low point but remained weak year-on-year. The high-sulfur cracking spread in Europe weakened, and the monthly spread oscillated at a low level. The 0.5% cracking spread in Singapore oscillated at a historical low, with the structure turning to C at a historical low and the basis oscillating at a historical low [3]. - In terms of inventory, Singapore's residual fuel oil stocks increased significantly, high-sulfur floating storage decreased significantly, ARA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly, Fujairah's residual fuel oil stocks decreased, high-sulfur floating storage decreased, and EIA's residual fuel oil stocks increased slightly. The conflict in Venezuela escalated over the weekend, having a short-term positive and long-term negative impact on heavy crude oil. Attention should be paid to the duration of logistics disruptions. The arrival premium for Merey crude in late December remained around -12. The high-sulfur spot market remained loose. Attention should be paid to the boost brought by the premium of heavy raw materials recently. The low-sulfur market maintained a weak oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 decreased by 0.76, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 0.63, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.58, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 decreased by 0.35, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by 0.98, LGO - Brent M1 decreased by 0.95, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.39 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 1.60, Singapore 180cst M1 decreased by 2.67, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 8.50, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 1.31, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 decreased by 1.46, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 decreased by 1.19 [1]. Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the FOB price of 380cst decreased by 3.66, the FOB price of VLSFO increased by 3.80, the 380 basis increased by 0.21, the high-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.6, and the low-sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 1.5 [2]. Domestic FU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of FU 01 increased by 10, FU 05 decreased by 37, FU 09 decreased by 9, FU 01 - 05 increased by 47, FU 05 - 09 decreased by 28, and FU 09 - 01 decreased by 19 [2]. Domestic LU Data - From January 6 to January 12, 2026, the price of LU 01 increased by 33, LU 05 increased by 1, LU 09 increased by 8, LU 01 - 05 increased by 32, LU 05 - 09 decreased by 7, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 25 [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views Index Futures - The report presents the current values, changes from the previous day, historical 1 - year percentiles, and all - time percentiles of index futures price spreads, including IF, IH, IC, and IM, as well as cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios [1]. Treasury Futures - It shows the basis, cross - period spreads, and cross - variety spreads of treasury futures, along with relevant changes and percentiles since listing [3]. Precious Metals - The market for gold is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillation. It is advisable to hold a light long position above $4300 or sell out - of - the - money put options. - The price of silver is expected to move upwards as the global inventory shortage intensifies. It is recommended to hold long positions above $75. - Platinum and palladium are expected to continue to oscillate upwards in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to buy lightly at the 20 - day moving average [6]. Container Shipping - The settlement price indices of SCFIS for European and US - West routes have increased, while the SCFI composite index has slightly decreased. Futures prices of relevant contracts have generally risen, and the basis of the main contract has changed [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Index Futures - **Price Spread Data**: For IF, the current value of the spot - futures spread is - 15.92, with a change of - 0.79 from the previous day. Similar data is provided for IH, IC, and IM. Cross - period spreads and cross - variety ratios are also detailed [1]. Treasury Futures - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis values of TS, TF, T, and TL are presented, along with cross - period spreads and cross - variety spreads, including their changes and percentiles since listing [3]. Precious Metals - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Domestic and foreign futures closing prices, spot prices, basis, ratios, interest rates, exchange rates, and inventory data of precious metals such as gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are provided, along with their changes and percentage changes [6]. Container Shipping - **Index and Price Data**: Settlement price indices of SCFIS, Shanghai export container freight rates, futures prices, basis, and fundamental data (including container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators, export amounts, overseas economic indicators) are presented, along with their changes and percentage changes [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that the kinetic energy of US soybeans is limited, and the soybean oil market will mainly operate within a certain range [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are presented. For example, the closing price of palm oil (day session) is 8,724 yuan/ton with a 0.48% increase, and the closing price of soybean oil (day session) is 7,994 yuan/ton with no change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open - interest changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures are provided. For instance, the trading volume of palm oil futures is 512,074 lots, with an increase of 145,968 lots [2]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of palm oil (24 - degree in Guangdong), first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong, and fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi, along with their price changes, are given. For example, the spot price of palm oil in Guangdong is 8,650 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions, as well as various spreads such as the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures, are presented [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From January 1 - 10, 2026, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 17.65% compared to the same period last month. The yield decreased by 20.49% during this period, and the inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month [3][5]. - **Global Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production increased by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons. As of December 1, 2025, the total US soybean inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 6% [5]. - **US Soybean and Soybean Oil**: The 2025/2026 US soybean planting area is expected to increase by 100,000 acres, and the soybean production is expected to increase by 9 million bushels. The US soybean oil production is expected to decrease by 210 million pounds, and the ending inventory is expected to increase by 26 million pounds [6][7]. - **Brazilian Soybeans**: As of last Thursday, the harvesting rate of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.6%, compared to 0.3% in the same period last year [8]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of palm oil and soybean oil is 1 [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of cotton remain strong due to supportive market bullish factors, such as the confirmed reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast cotton sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion capacity expectations of Xinjiang textile mills. However, the cotton price has significantly corrected recently, and it's necessary to observe if it can break through the 20 - day line. For trading strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for the short - term trends of US cotton and Zhengzhou cotton, including unilateral trading, arbitrage, and options [6][7][9] - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor. The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is still divided, with clothing fabric mills cautious and home textile fabric mills having a slightly better attitude. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Disk**: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), the closing prices decreased, with the decline ranging from 20 to 65. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For example, the trading volume of CF05 increased by 106,794, while its open interest decreased by 31,033. For cotton yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), the closing prices mostly decreased, and trading volume and open interest also had various changes [2] - **Spot Prices**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 135 to 15,857 yuan/ton, while the price of CY IndexC32S remained unchanged at 21,300 yuan/ton. Other spot prices such as Cot A, FC Index, etc., also had corresponding changes [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 85 with a 30 increase; in cotton yarn inter - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 425 with a 110 increase. In cross - variety spreads, CY01 - CF01 was 5515 with a 20 increase. The internal - external price spreads of cotton and cotton yarn also changed [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.7756 million tons, accounting for 89.2% of the estimated US cotton production in the 2025/26 season, 9% slower than the same period last year. The inspection progress of upland cotton was 89.37%, and that of Pima cotton was 88.6%. The quarterly deliverable ratio was 82.3%, 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year. It is expected that the inspection speed will accelerate later [4] - As of January 2, the number of un - priced contracts of sellers on the ON - CALL 2603 contract decreased by 1,977 to 18,662, a 40,000 - ton decrease from last week. The total number of un - priced contracts of sellers in the 25/26 season decreased by 2,068 to 36,195, equivalent to 820,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from last week [5] - On January 12, 2026, the road transportation price index of Xinjiang cotton was 0.1726 yuan/ton·km, a 3.52% decrease from the previous day. It is expected that the freight index will show a narrow - range fluctuation in the short term [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - The rumored reduction in cotton production has been gradually confirmed. The cotton sales progress is fast, and factors such as improved Sino - US relations and the expansion capacity of Xinjiang textile mills support the upward movement of fundamentals. The upward trend of the disk is obvious, with some ginning mills reluctant to sell and downstream textile mills starting to price [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: It is expected that the short - term trend of US cotton will mostly be range - bound. For Zhengzhou cotton, the positions of the recent main contracts have decreased, and the price has dropped significantly. It is recommended to wait and see [7] - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8] - **Options**: Wait and see [9] 3.2.4 Cotton Yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is light, with prices stable to slightly rising. The acceptance of new price increases by downstream is poor, but there is a slight improvement in downstream orders in some markets. Attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream demand [9] - The shipment of all - cotton plain cloth is divided. Clothing fabric mills are cautious, and home textile fabric mills have a slightly better attitude. Observe the post - Spring Festival market situation [9] 3.3 Options - The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 13400 was 6.7%, that of CF601 - P - 13000 was 11.4%, and that of CF601 - P - 12400 was 17.8% [11] - Yesterday, the position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7339, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6421. The trading volumes of both call and put options decreased today. It is recommended to wait and see for options [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the internal - external market cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton 1 - month basis, cotton 5 - month basis, cotton 9 - month basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [15][18][22][23]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - With the gradual recovery of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,600 - 16,400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,650 - 13,250 in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 16,130 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 13,010 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber was 20 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber was - 50 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. - The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was 200,506 lots, up 2,788 lots; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 70,564 lots, down 442 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber was - 53,704 lots, down 3,822 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber was - 14,823 lots, down 1,236 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange were 104,590 tons, up 100 tons; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange were 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 15,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 16,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,050 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 330 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber was - 980 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,408 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber was 458 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.27 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 56.35 Thai baht/kg, up 0.2 Thai baht. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, up 0.25 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber was 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber was 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.54%, down 0.34 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying was 13.82%, down 0.02 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 20.76%, down 0.79 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 20.74%, down 0.8 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025, and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Yangtze River Futures Feed and Livestock Industry Weekly Report - Report Date: January 12, 2026 - Researcher: Ye Tian - Company: Yangtze River Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - **Pig Market**: Supply pressure remains high, and futures prices are under pressure. In the short - term, pig prices will fluctuate and adjust, with a risk of decline. In the long - term, the supply in the first quarter will increase, and prices after the Spring Festival will be under pressure. The price in the second half of the year is expected to be stronger but still above the equilibrium level [4][56]. - **Egg Market**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the spot price is expected to rise seasonally, but the sufficient supply will limit the increase. In the long - term, the supply pressure in the second quarter may be alleviated, but the overall long - term supply pressure still exists [5][83]. - **Corn Market**: In the short - term, the supply and demand are balanced, and the futures price will fluctuate within a range. In the long - term, the new - season corn supply is sufficient, and the demand is moderately weak, which will limit the upside space [6][103]. Summary by Directory 1. Feed and Livestock Viewpoints Summary Pig - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the national spot price was 12.51 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from last week; the futures price of contract 2503 was 11770 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of contract 03 was 1160 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan/ton [4][56]. - **Supply**: Since September, the inventory of reproductive sows has been slightly decreasing. The supply will remain high before the first half of the year and decrease marginally after August. In January, the planned pig slaughter of large - scale enterprises decreased month - on - month [4][56]. - **Demand**: The weekly slaughter rate and volume decreased. The Spring Festival stocking period has not started, and the demand growth is weak. The high frozen - meat inventory will suppress the supply in the future [4][56]. - **Cost**: The prices of piglets and binary reproductive sows increased. The self - breeding and self - raising profit was positive, and the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding narrowed. The cost of self - breeding and self - raising fattening pigs increased slightly [4][56]. - **Strategy**: In the context of high supply pressure, short the off - season contracts on rallies. Be cautious about bullish on the far - month contracts. The industry can hedge at high levels above the profit [4][56]. Eggs - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the average price in the main production areas was 3.23 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.24 yuan/jin, up 0.21 yuan/jin; the futures price of contract 2603 was 3040 yuan/500 kg, up 89 yuan/500 kg; the basis of the main contract was - 137 yuan/500 kg, weaker by 51 yuan/500 kg [5][83]. - **Supply**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in January corresponds to the replenishment in August 2025, showing a year - on - year and month - on - month decline. The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining, but the base is still large [5][83]. - **Demand**: As the Spring Festival approaches, the domestic demand is expected to increase significantly. The low price of pork and the high price of vegetables increase the substitution demand for eggs [5][83]. - **Strategy**: Currently, the basis is low, and the valuation is high. Do not short on the short - term. Wait for the spot price to rise less than expected and then hedge the post - festival 03 contract at high levels [5][83]. Corn - **Spot and Futures**: As of January 9, the corn flat - cargo price at Jinzhou Port in Liaoning was 2330 yuan/ton, unchanged from before the holiday; the futures price of contract 2603 was 2263 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton; the basis of the main contract was 67 yuan/ton, weaker by 37 yuan/ton [6][103]. - **Supply**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The supply in the production areas slowed down, and the import policy grain auction had good results [6][103]. - **Demand**: The demand for feed is rigid, but the increase in corn price may lead to an increase in wheat substitution. The deep - processing demand is limited due to low profits and high inventories [6][103]. - **Strategy**: Do not chase the high price of the futures in the short - term. Holders of grain can hedge at high levels on rallies. In the long - term, the demand will gradually recover, but the supply is sufficient, which will limit the upside [6][103]. 2. Variety Industry Data Analysis Pig - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price first decreased and then increased, with narrow fluctuations. The futures price fluctuated more under the influence of spot and macro factors, and the basis strengthened [4][56]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of reproductive sows is expected to decline slowly. The production performance is at a high level in the past four years. The number of new - born piglets has been increasing since February 2025, indicating high supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Eggs - **Weekly Market Review**: The spot price rebounded from the low level, and the futures price of the main contract was strong, with a slight premium over the spot [61][83]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The inventory of laying hens is slowly declining. The weekly number of eliminated chickens decreased, and the price of chicken seedlings increased [83]. Corn - **Weekly Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted within a narrow range. The futures price of the main contract was strong, with a discount to the spot [89][103]. - **Key Data Tracking**: The national grain - selling progress was 50%, faster than the same period last year. The import of corn increased in November. The inventory in the north and south ports increased [6][103].