当然，这场派对并非人人有份。当你看到Nvidia和Meta这些AI宠儿像火箭一样蹿升，股价直冲历史新高 时，你可能会觉得整个市场都沐浴在阳光下。但别傻了，这只是"七巨头"的独角戏。他们依然掌握着定 价权，依然能把财报做得像艺术品，依然能在这个"悄悄走向萎缩"的世界里，给你画一张"增长"的大 饼。 至于那些小盘股和周期性股票？它们就像派对上被遗忘的角落，努力跟上节奏，却总显得有些气喘吁 吁。 更令人玩味的是，当股市高歌猛进时，黄金和加密货币这两位"恐慌与投机"的双生子也同步飙升。这就 像是，你一边在庆祝经济复苏，一边又偷偷地把钱藏在床垫下，以防万一。这哪里是"哈利路亚"式的欢 呼，这分明是对美联储"降息果汁"的机械式对冲，生怕错过了任何一点刺激。 来源：外汇百科堂 上周五，当美国劳工部发布了一份让经济学家们集体"手足无措"的疲软就业报告时，华尔街的交易员们 并没有选择"手足无措"。恰恰相反，他们选择了"手舞足蹈"。 标准普尔500指数和纳斯达克指数在周一上演了一场自五月以来最为壮观的单日涨幅，这哪里是反弹？ 这简直是一份对"坏消息就是好消息"这本老旧剧本的"深情告白"。 是的，你没听错。当就业市场传来"咔嚓"一 ...

Supply and Demand - Industrial production shows marginal weakening, with construction activity at seasonal lows, particularly in asphalt and cement operations[2] - Some chemical chains and automotive steel tire production rates have declined, with PX operating rates returning to historical midpoints[2] - Construction demand remains weak, with apparent demand for rebar, wire rod, and building materials below historical levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices are fluctuating, with oil, copper, aluminum, and gold showing a generally strong trend[3] - Domestic industrial products, excluding some building materials, are experiencing a rebound in prices, with the South China comprehensive index showing an upward trend[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions remain at historical lows, with a 16% week-on-week increase in transaction area, but still down 38% and 17% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[4] - Second-hand housing transactions are also weak, with prices declining and transaction volumes in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai showing year-on-year decreases of 8% and 2% respectively[4] Exports - July exports are expected to show resilience, with a projected year-on-year increase of approximately 2.8%, and container shipping data indicating a potential increase of around 7%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen a rise in funding rates, with R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.42% as of August 1[70] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 15,675 billion yuan through reverse repos in the same period[70] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[75]

Production Side - As of the fourth week of July, the blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[19] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, exceeding last year's average[19] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, a slight decrease compared to the previous period[19] - The asphalt inventory saw a significant decline, indicating an acceleration in physical work volume in the infrastructure sector[7] Demand Side - In July, the real estate market remained weak, with the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities down by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[7] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 21.88%[8] - The total box office revenue for movies was 84,200.00 million yuan, showing a month-on-month increase of 99.53% but a year-on-year decline of 14.85%[8] Trade and Prices - The CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) rose to 1,305.40, with a month-on-month growth of 2.19%[9] - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) decreased to 1,684.07, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 16.42%[9] - The CPI showed a mild increase in consumer prices, while industrial product prices fluctuated, with PPI pressures from weak energy prices[9]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of July, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.48%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.95%, up by 2.38 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - The cement mill operating rate recorded 36.95%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous period[3] Inventory and Capacity Utilization - As of the fourth week of July, rebar inventory decreased by 4.29% compared to the previous period, indicating a reduction in stock levels[27] - The capacity utilization rate for electric furnaces was 53.48%, up by 2.51 percentage points from the previous month, slightly above last year's average[46] - Cement clinker capacity utilization was 58.10%, down by 0.45 percentage points from the previous month, below last year's average[46] Demand Trends - In July, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities decreased by 27.43% month-on-month and 11.26% year-on-year[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 53,006.50 units, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 21.88%[4] - The volume of postal express collection was 3.704 billion pieces, down by 5.29% month-on-month but up by 15.14% year-on-year[4] Price Movements - The average price of cement was 338.17 yuan/ton, down by 0.33% month-on-month, below last year's average[67] - The price of rebar increased by 4.14% month-on-month to 3,310.40 yuan/ton, still below last year's average[68] - The price of asphalt rose by 0.40% month-on-month to 3,823.00 yuan/ton, above last year's average[69]

Economic Indicators - July 2025 domestic CPI is expected to be approximately 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year rate remaining at 0.1%[3] - July PPI is projected to be around 0.1% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase to -3.3%[3] - Industrial added value is expected to slightly decline to 6.3% year-on-year in July[3] - Retail sales of consumer goods are anticipated to rise to 5.0% year-on-year in July[3] - Fixed asset investment is forecasted to decrease slightly to 2.5% year-on-year cumulative[3] - Exports in dollar terms are expected to continue a slight increase to around 6.0% year-on-year[3] Financial Metrics - Trade surplus for July is projected at $1,002 million, down from $1,148 million[4] - Monthly credit increment is expected to be 2,900 million yuan, significantly lower than the previous 22,400 million yuan[4] - Total social financing monthly increment is forecasted at 16,000 million yuan, down from 41,993 million yuan[4] - M2 year-on-year growth rate is expected to remain stable at 8.3%[4]

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index indicates a continued recovery in the Chinese economy, with the consumption index showing a narrowing contraction, reflecting stable domestic demand and improving consumer confidence[1] - The investment index is in the expansion zone, driven by policy support for infrastructure and manufacturing investments, providing strong support for economic recovery[1] - The production index shows mild expansion, indicating a moderate recovery in production activities with strong supply-side resilience[1] Service and Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index stands at 50.0%, indicating overall stability, with tourism and public services maintaining expansion due to summer holidays[2] - The manufacturing PMI has dropped to 49.3%, remaining in contraction territory, primarily due to seasonal factors and external uncertainties[2] - The new orders index for manufacturing fell to 49.4%, and new export orders dropped to 47.1%, indicating weakened domestic and external demand[2] Global Economic Context - In Q2 2025, the US GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3%, exceeding market expectations of 2.6%, rebounding from a -0.5% growth in Q1[5] - The US net exports contributed 5 percentage points to GDP growth, while consumer spending increased by 1.4%[5] - The Bank of Japan maintained its benchmark interest rate at 0.5% and raised inflation forecasts for the next two fiscal years, with core CPI expected to reach 2.7% in FY2025[6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core View of the Report - The downstream off - season characteristics are obvious, and the non - ferrous metals sector has corrected. The prices of various non - ferrous metals show different trends, and each metal has its own influencing factors and market conditions [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - Ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals have different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is 98.7, with a daily decline of 1.36%, a weekly increase of 1.04%, and an annual decline of 9.03%; industrial silicon is 8500 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.97%, a weekly decline of 12.60%, and an annual decline of 22.62% [6]. 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The overall content of the Politburo meeting is less than the market's optimistic expectations; the result of the Sino - US economic and trade talks is in line with expectations, but the US side's statement is hawkish; China's July manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the Fed's statement is hawkish, suppressing the expectation of a September interest rate cut; the US July non - farm data is lower than expected, and the ISM manufacturing PMI has unexpectedly declined; the US has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper [8]. - **Raw Material End**: Slightly bullish. The spot processing fee of copper ore has increased slightly, and the port inventory of domestic copper ore has decreased [8]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The loss of smelters using spot copper ore has narrowed, and the profit of smelters using long - term contract copper ore has increased. China's copper smelter production in July has further increased [8]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The downstream demand has improved slightly, but the off - season characteristics are obvious [8]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The copper inventories at home and abroad have increased simultaneously [8]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The market is worried about the US economic recession, and the downstream demand is in the off - season, so the copper price is expected to remain weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: May be under pressure to decline in the short term; Arbitrage: None [8]. 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The Sino - US tariff suspension will be extended for 90 days; the US June core PCE price index has increased significantly; China's July official manufacturing PMI has declined; Trump has imposed a 50% tariff on semi - finished copper; the Fed has kept interest rates unchanged, but two voting members support a rate cut [88]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee remains the same as last week, and the import processing fee index has been slightly increased. The smelters have a strong willingness to raise the processing fee [88]. - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The zinc ingot production in July reached a new high in the past five years, and the production in August is expected to increase [88]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal project construction is affected by natural disasters, but the galvanizing sector is affected by positive news. There is a rumor that galvanizing manufacturers around Beijing will stop production during the September military parade, which needs further attention [88]. - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and it may continue to increase before the terminal demand enters the peak season [88]. - **Investment View**: Bearish. The zinc fundamentals are under strong pressure, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [88]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see; Arbitrage: Long copper and short zinc [88]. 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Macro Factors**: Bearish. The US July non - farm data has unexpectedly declined, and the previous two months' data has been significantly revised down; the US manufacturing PMI is weaker than expected; the Sino - US trade negotiation is slightly less than expected [200][202]. - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The premium of Indonesian domestic trade pyrometallurgical nickel ore is stable, and the benchmark price is rising. The demand for nickel ore procurement has weakened, and the domestic port inventory has increased seasonally [200][202]. - **Smelting End**: Slightly bearish. The pure nickel production remains high; some Indonesian nickel - iron plants have reduced production due to cost inversion, but the demand has also weakened; the MHP coefficient is stable, and the procurement demand for nickel sulfate may increase [200]. - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel price has corrected, the steel mill profit has been repaired, and the production reduction may be less than expected. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the overseas demand is still restricted. The new energy production and sales remain high, and the precursor enterprises' raw material inventory is relatively sufficient [200]. - **Inventory**: Slightly bearish. The overall inventory has increased. As of Friday, the LME nickel inventory is 20.9 tons, an increase of 2.53%; the SHFE nickel inventory is 2.57 tons, an increase of 1.17% [200]. - **Investment View**: Weakly volatile. The macro - sentiment has cooled down, and the nickel price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with increased volatility. In the long term, there is still pressure of over - supply of primary nickel [200]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Maintain the idea of shorting on rallies in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see [200].

宏观扰动增大 有色金属整体保持震荡 有色金属基础周报 2025-08-04 主要品种观点综述 | | | 美国6月核心PCE物价指数同比2.8%，创4个月新高，美联储7月如期维持利率不变，但美联储内部现30年未见的立场分歧，鲍威尔重申谨慎立场， | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 强调"尚未就9月会议做出决定，将依据未来数据谨慎决策"，进一步降温9月降息的预期；但ADP就业人数出炉，较前值及预期大幅下滑，美国 | | | | 高位震荡 | 经济可能在更大范围内走弱，因此市场则对9月降息报乐观态势。美国宣布只对铜材等半成品加关税，不涉及阴极铜和废铜等原料，纽约铜深跌。 | 区间交易 | | 铜 | 77000-79000 | 沪伦铜跟随走弱。国内行业反内卷与稳增长政策效应持续释放，铜供应端地震等扰动因素不断，低库存亦为铜价提供高位支撑，但当前铜产业仍 | 或观望 | | | | 处于淡季，铜材加工产能利用率走弱，下游采购需求难有明显增加。同时，美铜进口关税明晰后，海外市场库存回升明显，国内库存或面临回流 | | | | | 压力。8月初是国内外宏观数据密集公布时间，铜价宏观影 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic anti - involution and key industry stability - growth policies initially drove up copper prices, but later macro - sentiment cooled, and the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products imposed by the Trump administration on August 1st, along with the Fed's hawkish stance, put pressure on copper prices [6][87]. - From a fundamental perspective, the supply of copper concentrates remains tight, with low processing fees and high domestic smelter output. Low inventories support copper prices, but terminal consumption is in the off - season, and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased significantly, and there is still downward pressure on copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Market Review - In July, copper prices first strengthened and then weakened. Domestic policies and the weakening of the US dollar initially boosted copper prices, but later, the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment, the 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products, and the Fed's hawkish stance led to a decline in copper prices. The sharp drop in US copper by over 20% also drove down Shanghai and London copper prices [6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation showed a moderate increase in June. The CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 2.8% year - on - year. In July, non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, the lowest in 9 months, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in July, but the poor non - farm data increased the probability of a rate cut this year [12][13]. - The US manufacturing PMI was in a contraction range in July, with the ISM manufacturing index at 48, lower than expected. The Markit manufacturing PMI hit a new low since December last year, while the service PMI reached a new high. The US dollar index first weakened and then strengthened in July, putting pressure on commodity prices [15]. Domestic Macroeconomy - China's CPI turned positive in June, rising 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a 14 - month high. The PPI decline widened to 3.6%. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged in July. From January to June, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 22.83 trillion yuan, more than the same period last year. The scissors gap between M2 and M1 narrowed [22]. - In July, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.1, also down 0.4 percentage points. The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2, indicating that overall business activities were still expanding. From January to June, China's fixed - asset investment increased by more than 5% year - on - year [25]. 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - From January to May, the global copper concentrate production capacity was 12.105 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the production was 9.524 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.27%. The copper production in Chile and Peru from January to May was 323,390 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.04% [31]. Smelting - The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the conflict between mines and smelters persists. As of August 1st, the spot smelting fee (TC) for copper concentrates was - 42 dollars per ton, and the processing fee has been at a historical low [33]. Refined Copper - In June, the utilization rate of copper production capacity increased to 82.69%, and the electrolytic copper output was 1.1349 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.93%. In July, the price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, remained strong, partially offsetting the losses at the smelting end [37]. Import and Export - In June, China's refined copper imports were 300,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.11%. As of July 31st, the Shanghai - London ratio of electrolytic copper was 8.11, and the import profit was negative [38]. Scrap Copper - In June, domestic scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.49% but a month - on - month decrease of 1.06%. In July, the price difference between refined and scrap copper narrowed [42]. Processing - In June, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 67.29%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points, but it increased to 71.73% as of August 1st. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises in June was 33.61%, a month - on - month increase of 3.69% [44][45]. Terminal Demand - From January to June, China's power grid project investment was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, and power source project investment was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In June, the cumulative new installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power continued to grow, but the growth rate is expected to slow down in the second half of the year [50]. - In June, the real estate completion area decreased by 14.8% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 20% year - on - year. The real estate market is still at the bottom - grinding stage, dragging down copper demand [53]. - In June, China's automobile production was 2.8086 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%, and new - energy vehicle production was 1.234 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20.39%. The new - energy vehicle market maintains high - level development [59]. - In June, the production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners maintained a certain growth rate, and the domestic "Two New" policies are expected to support the demand for copper in the home appliance industry [61]. Inventory - As of August 1st, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 72,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.24%. As of July 28th, the domestic social copper inventory was 120,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.48%. The global visible copper inventory has rebounded from a low level [63][66]. Premium and Discount - In July, the domestic spot premium first rose and then fell. After the US copper tariff was implemented on August 1st, the LME copper inventory increased, and the LME copper spot/3 - month changed from a premium to a discount [68][69]. Domestic and Overseas Positions - In July, the average daily trading volume of Shanghai copper was 83,728.74 lots. As of August 1st, the Shanghai copper position was 176,193 lots, a decrease of 21.34% from the beginning of the month. The net long position of COMEX copper asset management institutions increased significantly [79]. 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, Shanghai copper is expected to continue its short - term downward oscillation trend, with support at the 77,600 level. The reference range for copper prices in August is expected to be between 77,000 and 80,000 [83]. 5. Future Outlook - From a macro perspective, the weak US manufacturing PMI and poor non - farm payroll data increase the probability of a rate cut this year. The Trump administration's 50% tariff on imported semi - finished copper products and the cooling of domestic macro - sentiment put pressure on copper prices [87]. - Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates is tight, and low inventories support copper prices, but the off - season terminal consumption and the supply - demand weakness may drag down copper prices. After the US copper import tariff is clear, overseas inventories have increased, and there is still downward pressure on Shanghai and London copper prices, which are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [88].

铜周报 20250803 宏观向上； 供需有改善迹象 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1773号 杨磊 从业资格证号：F03128841 投资咨询证号：Z0020255 核心要点及策略 1 影响因素分析 | 2 | | --- | 01 03 02 价格数据 04 宏观经济数据 基本面数据 19 07 3 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 01 价格数据 4 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 5 持货商销售情绪减轻、挺价出货，铜现货升水坚挺 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 6 本周LME铜0-3M贴水周环比略有缩窄 02 基本面数据 7 本周铜精矿TC指数均价环比涨0.54美元/吨至-42.09美元/吨，仍为负 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 8 9 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 据SMM，本周九港铜精矿库存环比减3.93万吨至52.16万吨 精废价差有所走弱 10 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 国内7月电解铜产量环比增3.47%、同比增14.21% 11 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 铜进口倒挂 12 数据来源：钢联、ifind、国联期货 13 电解 ...