四是9月制造业PMI边际改善。国家统计局公布，9月制造业PMI为49.8%，预期值49.6%，前值49.4%， 较往年季节性水平仍偏弱；非制造业PMI为50%，预期值50.2%，前值50.3%。（资料来源：南方基金宏 观策略部整理，过往表现不预示未来） 接下来是国外，美国政府继续关门。自10月1日起，由于国会两党在削减政府开支和边境安全等问题上 的尖锐对立，未能通过一项旨在避免停摆的持续决议案，美国联邦政府正式进入全面停摆。 近期美国不断施压，中国对等反制，中美贸易摩擦再度升温。昨日市场全天震荡回升，三大指数低开高 走。截至收盘，沪指跌0.19%，深成指跌0.93%，创业板指跌1.11%。 债市这边，国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.37%，10年期主力合约涨0.10%， 5年期主力合 约涨0.03%。(数据来源：Choice，20251013，指数过往表现不预示未来) 后市怎么看？南南依旧整理了南方基金宏观策略部深度解读观点供大家参考。 01 宏观经济解读 我们先来回顾下国内外宏观基本面。首先是国内维度，一是近期美国不断施压，中方对等反制。自5月 中美日内瓦声明以来，经历多轮贸易谈判，中美贸易摩擦 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide industry - wide investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment inclination: - **Gold and Silver**: Gold trend intensity is 1, and silver trend intensity is 1, indicating a moderately positive view [9]. - **Copper**: Copper trend intensity is 2, showing a strong positive view [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc trend intensity is 0, suggesting a neutral view [16]. - **Lead**: Lead trend intensity is 0, also a neutral view [18]. - **Tin**: Tin trend intensity is 1, a moderately positive view [24]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, aluminum oxide trend intensity is - 1 (negative view), and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [27]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both neutral views [31]. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, and silver is set to冲击 50 (presumably a price level) [2][4]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Market sentiment has improved, leading to a price rebound [2][11]. - **Zinc**: The price will experience a weak - side oscillation [2][14]. - **Lead**: The reduction of domestic inventory restricts price decline [2][17]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts [2][20]. - **Aluminum**: The price will fluctuate within a certain range; the center of aluminum oxide price will move downward; cast aluminum alloy prices will follow those of electrolytic aluminum [2][25]. - **Nickel**: Under pressure from the macro - economic sentiment, nickel prices will oscillate at a low level [2][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Pressured by both the macro - economic situation and the actual market, the price decline is limited by the cost [2][29]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price Movements**: - **Gold**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2512 yesterday was 927.56, with a daily increase of 2.88%, and the night - session closing price was 936.72, up 2.45%. Gold T + D closed at 926.48 yesterday, up 3.20%, and 933.67 at night, up 1.80% [5]. - **Silver**: The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2512 yesterday was 11531, up 4.02%, and the night - session closing price was 11710.00, up 4.22%. Silver T + D closed at 11453 yesterday, up 3.53%, and 11669 at night, up 2.55% [5]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Gold 2512 and Shanghai Silver 2512 showed different changes compared with the previous day. The SPDR Gold ETF's position increased by 4 to 1017.16, while the SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 8 to 15443.76 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold remained unchanged at 70728 kg, and the inventory of Shanghai Silver decreased by 44605 kg to 1124456 kg. The Comex silver inventory (the day before yesterday) decreased by 3660531 ounces to 522463797 ounces [5]. Copper - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract yesterday was 85120, down 0.92%, and the night - session closing price was 86520, up 1.64%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - trading price closed at 10802, up 4.13% [11]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 78954 to 291422, and the open interest decreased by 14284 to 201831. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic - trading decreased by 11695 to 29402, and the open interest increased by 583 to 323000 [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Copper inventory increased by 2926 to 32890 tons, and the LME Copper inventory decreased by 50 to 139350 tons. The LME Copper cash - 3M premium decreased by 31.19 to 226.78 [11]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September both exceeded expectations. The European largest copper producer Aurubis raised the European refined copper price for 2026 [11][13]. Zinc - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22255, down 0.07%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2984.5, down 0.98% [14]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 2566 to 177344, and the open interest decreased by 4835 to 101699. The trading volume of the LME Zinc decreased by 5593 to 16666, and the open interest increased by 621 to 220860 [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Zinc inventory decreased by 1030 to 59614 tons, and the LME Zinc inventory decreased by 475 to 37475 tons. The LME Zinc cash - 3M premium increased by 42.45 to 100.45 [14]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations [15]. Lead - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17095, down 0.26%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic - trading price closed at 2014.5, down 0.30% [17]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 30286 to 66594, and the open interest decreased by 807 to 43988. The trading volume of the LME Lead increased by 2032 to 13567, and the open interest decreased by 3233 to 143335 [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Lead inventory decreased by 499 to 29569 tons, and the LME Lead inventory remained unchanged at 237000 tons. The LME Lead cash - 3M premium decreased by 6.22 to - 38.22 [17]. - **News**: China's exports and imports in September exceeded expectations, and the Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [18]. Tin - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282110, down 1.48%, and the night - session closing price was 282800, down 0.26%. The LME Tin 3M electronic - trading price closed at 35350, down 3.99% [21]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1793 to 106939, and the open interest decreased by 3722 to 30938. The trading volume of the LME Tin decreased by 9 to 180, and the open interest increased by 53 to 13988 [21]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 64 to 5745 tons, and the LME Tin inventory decreased by 25 to 2385 tons. The LME Tin cash - 3M premium decreased by 5 to - 62 [21]. - **News**: There were multiple macro - economic and industry news, such as China's export control on rare - earth items and the investigation of Qualcomm for antitrust violations [22]. Aluminum and Related Products - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20885, down 95, and the night - session closing price was 20975. The LME Aluminum 3M price closed at 2757, up 11. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum Oxide main contract was 2820, down 36, and the night - session closing price was 2807. The closing price of the Aluminum Alloy main contract was 20410, down 130, and the night - session closing price was 20490 [25]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai Aluminum, LME Aluminum, Shanghai Aluminum Oxide, and Aluminum Alloy showed different changes compared with previous periods [25]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 0.80 to 64.20 million tons, and the LME Aluminum inventory decreased by 0.28 to 50.60 million tons. The prices and premiums of related products also changed [25]. - **News**: The Chinese Ministry of Transport issued a method for collecting special port fees for US ships [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Movements**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121410, down 770, and the closing price of the Stainless - Steel main contract was 12655, down 125 [29]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 10068 to 149002, and the trading volume of the Stainless - Steel main contract increased by 146677 to 306704 [29]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The prices of electrolytic nickel, high - nickel pig iron, stainless - steel products, and related premiums and profits showed different changes [29]. - **News**: There were multiple industry news, such as the Indonesian government's takeover of a nickel - mining area and China's suspension of non - official subsidies for imported copper and nickel from Russia [29][30].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][4]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, due to weak current situation and weakening expectations, steel prices may experience a slight correction [2][7]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are likely to have wide - range oscillations [2][10]. - Coke and coking coal will have weak oscillations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][14]. - Logs will fluctuate repeatedly [2][16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: Futures price (12601) closed at 804.5 yuan/ton, up 9.5 yuan or 1.19%. Spot prices of various imported ores decreased by 2 yuan/ton, while some domestic ores remained unchanged. The basis and some spreads changed [4]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of RB2601 and HC2601 decreased. Spot prices in major regions also declined. There were changes in trading volume, open interest, basis, and spreads [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, the US announced export controls on rare earths and other related items from China, imposing a 100% tariff. In August 2025, China's steel exports decreased slightly, while imports increased. According to the October 8th weekly data, steel production decreased, inventory increased, and apparent demand decreased [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral view [9]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon decreased. Spot prices of silicon manganese decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and there were changes in various spreads [10]. - **News**: On October 13th, the prices of silicon iron 72 in some regions decreased. Hebei Steel's 10 - month silicon iron and manganese silicon tenders decreased in quantity. Yunnan Kunsteel's silicon iron purchase price decreased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral view [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 decreased. Spot prices of some coking coals decreased, while most coke prices remained unchanged. There were changes in basis and spreads [14]. - **News**: China responded to the US threat of imposing tariffs, stating that corresponding measures would be taken if the US persists [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of some log varieties remained stable, while some had slight changes [17]. - **News**: This year's first three quarters, China's goods trade imports and exports were 33.61 trillion yuan, up 4% year - on - year. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, up 8% year - on - year [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for logs is 0, indicating a neutral view [19].

Market Overview - The market has shown signs of fatigue over the past three to four weeks, with only about 50% of stocks above their 50-day average, indicating a lack of momentum [3] - Despite recent volatility, the market is expected to maintain support levels around 6,400 to 6,450, with a potential move towards 7,000 by year-end [4] Economic Indicators - Cyclical stocks are outperforming defensive stocks, and credit conditions remain benign, suggesting a generally healthy economic environment [3][8] - The recent market sell-off was triggered by concerns over potential trade tensions with China, particularly the announcement of 100% tariffs effective November 1st [6] Sector Performance - Healthcare has begun to show positive trends, raising questions about whether this will extend to other defensive sectors like staples and REITs [5] - Consumer stocks are expected to respond positively to lower oil prices and interest rates, but there is uncertainty about their performance heading into 2026 [11] Regulatory Environment - A significant deregulatory push across various industries, including banking and energy, is noted, which may impact market dynamics [12] - The performance of financial stocks, particularly money center banks, is crucial for the overall market outlook, as they have been leading for the past two years [13]

Group 1 - The company, Xinte Electric (301120), stated that its stock price is influenced by various factors including macroeconomic conditions, market environment, and industry trends [1] - Investors are advised to pay attention to investment risks as indicated by the company [1] - The company will disclose its performance information in future periodic reports on the designated information disclosure platform of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [1]

Macro Economic Overview - The ICHI Composite Economic Index showed a slight recovery this week, indicating a mild improvement despite remaining in the contraction zone[1] - The consumption index experienced a slight decline due to base effects, but demand in dining, retail, and tourism remains robust as holidays approach[1] - The investment index remains in contraction, with a slowdown in infrastructure and manufacturing upgrades, but overall trends are stable[1] - The production index has significantly rebounded, recovering from previous holiday disruptions, indicating strong supply-side recovery[1] Consumer and Investment Trends - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, inter-regional travel reached 2.433 billion trips, averaging 304 million trips per day, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%[2] - Domestic tourism saw 888 million trips with total spending exceeding 8 trillion yuan, highlighting the growth of service consumption as a key driver[2] - Service consumption grew by 7.6% year-on-year, with a notable increase in digital payment transactions, reflecting accelerated online-offline integration[2] Global Economic Insights - Vietnam's GDP grew by 8.23% year-on-year in Q3 2025, the fastest growth in three years, driven by manufacturing expansion and export recovery[6] - U.S. fiscal year 2025 budget deficit is projected at approximately $1.8 trillion, slightly lower than the previous year, with the deficit-to-GDP ratio decreasing to 5.9%[7] - U.S. consumer inflation expectations rose to 3.4% for the next year, indicating growing concerns about inflation and potential impacts on consumer confidence[8]

Production Side - In September, the average operating rate for electric furnaces and rebar steel was 61.70% and 42.21%, respectively, showing a slight decline from the previous month[3] - The operating rate for petroleum asphalt improved significantly, reaching an average of 34.38%, up by 10.35 percentage points from last month and 32.34% year-on-year[3] - The capacity utilization rates for coking, glass, cement clinker, and cold-rolled steel improved, recorded at 79.49%, 78.21%, 52.22%, and 78.21% respectively[3] Demand Side - In September, the transaction area for commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 4.92% month-on-month, while land transaction area in 100 cities rose by 26.92%[4] - The average daily sales of passenger cars were 66,930 units, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 3.17%[4] - The average weekly box office revenue for movies dropped to 635 million yuan, a decrease of 59.61% month-on-month, but a significant year-on-year increase of 70.02%[4] Price Side - The PPI for copper and aluminum saw increases of 1.77% and 0.22% respectively, while rebar and diesel prices fell by 1.75% each[6] - The average price of cement was 342.72 yuan/ton, up by 1.06% month-on-month, but lower than the previous year's average[79] - The price of petroleum asphalt increased to 3,513.20 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month rise of 0.27%[81]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content was found in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Near the Sino - US tariff extension deadline, tariff negotiation rhythm may drive short - term trading. The weak US employment data leads to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. The widening COMEX - LME spread attracts non - US copper to the US. In the long - term, copper supply shortage will support the price bottom, but short - term price is affected by demand changes and tariff negotiations [1]. Aluminum - After the holiday, the alumina futures price is under pressure, and the aluminum price fluctuates. The alumina supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. The aluminum market is in a tight balance, with high - price suppressing procurement and low inventory levels. The short - term prices of alumina and aluminum are expected to be range - bound [3]. Aluminum Alloy - After the holiday, the casting aluminum alloy futures price strengthens. The cost is supported, but the supply is restricted by raw materials and policies. The demand recovers moderately, and the inventory increase slows down. The short - term ADC12 price is expected to remain high and volatile [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is not outstanding. The short - term zinc price may be driven by the macro - environment, but the upward elasticity is limited. It may maintain a range - bound movement unless there are significant changes in demand or supply [8]. Tin - The supply of tin is tight, and the demand is weak. After the sharp decline of the outer - plate metal, the tin price may fall, but considering the strong fundamentals, it can be considered to buy at low prices after the risk is released. The future price depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar [10]. Nickel - The nickel price fluctuates widely. The macro - environment is uncertain, and the policy expectations of the Indonesian ore end are increasing. The cost is supported, but the medium - term supply is loose. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel price fluctuates narrowly. The macro - environment is uncertain, the raw material price is firm, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory reduction is slow. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates. The supply path is becoming clear, but the news may bring variables. The demand is optimistic, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 86,680 yuan/ton, up 1.10% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Data - September electrolytic copper production is 112.10 million tons, down 4.31% [1]. - August electrolytic copper import is 26.43 million tons, down 10.99% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,980 yuan/ton, up 0.10% [3]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - September alumina production is 760.37 million tons, down 1.74% [3]. - September electrolytic aluminum production is 361.48 million tons, down 3.16% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,100 yuan/ton, unchanged [5]. - The scrap - refined price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,524 yuan/ton, up 1.33% [5]. Fundamental Data - August recycled aluminum alloy ingot production is 66.10 million tons, up 7.48% [5]. - August primary aluminum alloy ingot production is 27.10 million tons, up 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,300 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [8]. - The import profit and loss is - 3,968 yuan/ton, up 199.94 yuan [8]. Fundamental Data - September refined zinc production is 60.01 million tons, down 4.17% [8]. - August refined zinc import is 2.57 million tons, up 43.30% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 287,400 yuan/ton, up 1.13% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton, unchanged [10]. Fundamental Data - August tin ore import is 10,267 tons, down 0.11% [10]. - September SMM refined tin production is 10,510 tons, down 31.71% [10]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 123,850 yuan/ton, up 0.20% [12]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 2,300 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan [12]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 32,200 tons, up 1.26% [12]. - Refined nickel import is 17,010 tons, down 3.00% [12]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price is 13,050 yuan/ton, down 0.38% [13]. - The spot - futures price difference is 13,220 yuan/ton, up 2597.96% [13]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 companies) is 187.48 million tons, up 4.42% [13]. - Stainless steel import is 11.72 million tons, up 60.48% [13]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 73,550 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,300 yuan/ton, unchanged [14]. Fundamental Data - September lithium carbonate production is 87,260 tons, up 2.37% [14]. - September lithium carbonate demand is 116,801 tons, up 12.28% [14].

Industrial Sector - Daily average pig iron production and cement clinker capacity utilization rate have shown a marginal decline due to the holiday disruptions[2] - The apparent demand for steel has decreased, while the operating rate for polyester in textiles has increased[2] - The operating rates for automotive tires have decreased, indicating seasonal fluctuations[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have decreased by 28.7% year-on-year as of October 10, influenced by the holiday and base effects[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has dropped by 0.83% month-on-month as of September 29[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of automobiles increased by 6% year-on-year in September, while major home appliance retail sales fell by 6.7%[2] - Domestic flight operations increased by 3% year-on-year, with the Baidu migration index rising by 31.6%[2] - The total number of people moving across regions during the holiday reached 2.432 billion, a historical high, with a daily average of 304 million, up 6.2% year-on-year[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while container throughput rose by 6.9%[2] - Export container freight rates have shown a decline of 6.7% week-on-week, although rates from Shanghai and Ningbo have increased since the end of September[2] Price Trends - The South China black raw materials index rose by 1.8%, while the futures price of rebar increased by 1%[2] - The futures price of coking coal rose by 3.1%, while the spot price in Shanxi fell by 1.1%[2]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 钢矿周报（10.9-10.10） CONTENTS 目 录 基本面分析 1 The first chapter of the small title 2 综述及观点总结 2 The third chapter of the small title 1、原料市场状况分析 一周数据变化 | 项目 | 上期数据 | 本期数据 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PB粉价格（元/湿吨） | 785 | 790 | 5 | | 巴混粉价格（元/湿吨） | 820 | 824 | 4 | | PB粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | -10.71 | -28.76 | -18.05 | | 巴混粉现货落地利润（元/湿吨） | 0 ...