2025/6/18 11:04 【国富期货早间看点】MPOC 5 5.05% Anec 6 1437 20250618 【国富期货早间看点】MPOC马棕5月产量环比增长5.05% Anec预 计巴西大豆6月出口1437万吨 20250618 2025年06月18日 07:30 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日流跌幅(%) | 隔夜流跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油09(BMD) | 4096. 00 | -0.66 | 0. 74 | | 布伦特08(ICE) | 77. 19 | 6. 47 | 2. 80 | | 美原油08(NYMEX) | 73.74 | 5.27 | 2. 43 | | 美豆07 (CBOT) | 1074.00 | 0. 37 | 0.16 | | 美豆箱07(CBOT) | 285. 30 | 0. 53 | 0. 35 | | 美豆油07(CBOT) | 54. 69 | -0. 76 | -0. 89 | | | 最新价 | 流跌幅(%) 十日漆跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 美元指数 | 98 ...

房地产销售有所回落，经济复苏动能仍待增强 ——5 月宏观数据分析 研究员：万亮 邮箱：xnqh_wl@swfutures.com 期货从业证书号：F03116714 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019298 报告时间：2025.6.18 1 我们梳理了 5 月国内重要的宏观经济数据，以增加对当前宏观经济运行节 奏的理解。总的来说，5 月宏观数据延续了 2025 年整体平稳，但复苏动能仍待 增强；实际 GDP 增速强于名义 GDP 的特征。一方面，国内经济仍然表现出很 强的韧性，工业生产强劲，促消费下消费保持较高增速；另一方面，国内经济 的复苏动能仍待加强，物价指数上行乏力，房地产销售增速有所回落，出口增 速下降。 因此，我们认为，需要理性客观的看待当前宏观经济，国内经济呈现出向 下有底，但向上不足的态势，物价指数的压力高于实际 GDP。仍待宏观政策加 大支持力度，增强市场信心。尽管节奏上充满波折，2025 年宏观经济和资产价 格，均有望延续向上修复的整体趋势，在此过程中需保持耐心。 一、制造业 PMI 环比回升，但力度偏弱 5 月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分点， 制造 ...

华夏时报（www.chinatimes.net.cn）记者 张智 北京报道 5月份，经济运行呈现总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势。 "5月，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额等指标增速基本上保持总体稳定，显示出生 产需求总体稳定。从就业情况来看，5月份全国城镇调查失业率为5%，比上月下降0.1个百分点。从物价情况看， 受到国际输入性因素和部分食品价格下降影响，5月份CPI同比小幅下降，但降幅与上月持平；从扣除食品和能源 的核心CPI来看，涨幅比上月有所扩大，显示出市场供求关系基本稳定。从上述情况看，都表现出5月份经济运行 总体平稳。"国家统计局新闻发言人、国民经济综合统计司司长付凌晖6月16日在国新办发布会上表示。 不过，远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对《华夏时报》记者表示，5月宏观经济运行喜忧参半，尽管存在不少亮点， 但仍有出口扰动、透支效应、"低价"拖累等问题需要警惕。 "我们预计，二季度经济相较一季度将有所回落，全年可能呈现前高中低的走势，需要重点关注经济的波动。"浙 商证券首席经济学家李超表示。 宏观经济部分指标继续改善 5月份，在各项政策支持下，企业积极调整应变，促进了工业生产较快增长。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，巴克莱瑞士苏黎世尼古拉・瓦西利耶维奇(全球资产配置主管)与卢卡斯・盖林格(量化宏 观与主题策略主管)在一份研报中表示，全球主要经济体正沿着不同轨迹发展;政府债券的回报足以挤出许多其 他投资，但并非所有流动性资产都是如此;股票仍是长期回报的核心;非流动性另类投资，尤其是对冲基金，往 往能在这种环境中蓬勃发展。该行预计，未来十年欧元区政府债券和投资级债券的回报率约为5.0%，美国和 英国债券的回报率在4.5% -5.2%之间。对高收益债券回报的预期仅比这高出1%-1.5%。 巴克莱主要观点如下： 今年的金融市场动荡不安，且下半年也不太可能平静多少。不过，该行更新后的宏观经济与市场长期假设显 示，长期回报受短期噪音(无论其有多喧嚣)的影响微乎其微。 长期宏观经济预测(2025 - 2034 年) 关键宏观经济变量的 5 年期(2025 - 2029 年)及 10 年期(2025 - 2034 年)预期 | | Real GDP growth | | | Inflation | Central bank policy rate | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

点 击 蓝 字 关 注 我 们 本文全文共 2646 字，阅读全文约 9 分钟 2025年5月份规模以上工业增加值增长5.8% 2025年1—5月份全国固定资产投资增长3.7% 2025年5月份社会消费品零售总额增长6.4% 分行业看，5月份，41个大类行业中有35个行业增加值保持同比增长。其中，煤炭开采和洗选业增长 5.5%，石油和天然气开采业增长5.3%，农副食品加工业增长7.6%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业增长4.1%，纺织 业增长0.6%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长5.9%，非金属矿物制品业下降0.6%，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工 业增长4.8%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长8.1%，通用设备制造业增长6.3%，专用设备制造业增长2.3%， 汽车制造业增长11.6% ，铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业增长14.6%，电气机械和器材制造业增 长11.0%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长10.2%，电力、热力生产和供应业增长2.0%。 分产品看，5月份，规模以上工业623种产品中有326种产品产量同比增长。其中，钢材12743万吨，同比 增长3.4%；水泥16500万吨，下降8.1%；十种有色金属 ...

宏观经济 高频数据统计周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 分析师： 沈凡超 中央编号： BTT231 联系电话： 852-4623 5564 邮箱： hector@cnzsqh.hk 1 2 l 宏观经济高频数据一览表 l 生产端 l 消费端 l 地产基建 l 进出口 l 物价通胀 l 交通运输 宏观经济 高频数据一览表 目录 3 宏观经济高频数据一览表 | 指标名称 数据频率 | | 更新时间 | 最新值 | 前值 | 环比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 生产 | | | | | | | 焦炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 73.94 | 74. 91 | e -0.97 | | 高炉开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83. 39 | 83. 54 | P -0. 15 | | PX开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 86. 31 | 86. 61 | P -0. 30 | | PTA开工率(%) | 周频 | 2025/6/13 | 83 | 82. 74 | দম 0. 26 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term oil price is mainly affected by geopolitical situations, with high uncertainty and expected to be highly volatile. The macro - risk is difficult to resolve due to the ongoing Sino - US trade negotiations and potential inflation pressure in the US. [3] - For asphalt, the cost side remains high, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. The short - term price is expected to be supported by the oil price, but the asphalt - crude oil crack spread continues to decline. [7] - The domestic liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, but the sharp rise in oil prices provides strong support for the PG price. [9] - High - sulfur fuel oil has support from geopolitics and peak - season power generation demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil has a recovering supply and weak downstream demand. [12] - The natural gas price in the US is expected to gradually rise due to increased demand, and the European natural gas price has soared due to geopolitical tensions. [14] - For PX, the supply increases significantly in June, and the profit is compressed. The supply is expected to decrease in early July due to maintenance plans. [16] - PTA's supply - demand margin is expected to weaken in July, with the downstream in the seasonal consumption off - season. [17] - Ethylene glycol maintains a tight - balance pattern, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow in June. [19] - Short - fiber processing fees are expected to be strongly supported in June, with stable downstream start - up. [21] - For bottle - grade polyester chips, the production enterprises' losses are expanding, and some enterprises may stop production later. [23] - The supply of styrene is expected to increase slightly, and the medium - term supply - demand margin is expected to weaken, but the short - term price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to low inventory. [24] - The supply - demand of polyolefins is expected to be weak, and short - term observation is recommended, with a mid - term idea of shorting on rebounds. [28] - PVC has a long - term supply - surplus pattern, and short - term observation is recommended, while maintaining a short - on - rebound idea. Caustic soda's 09 contract is expected to be weak, with a mid - term bearish view. [32] - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern is intensifying, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended. [34] - Glass is expected to have a weak price in the short - term, and interval operation with a short - bias is recommended, paying attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair. [36] - The log spot market still faces challenges in the long - term, and short - term observation is recommended, paying attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads. [39] - The prices of corrugated paper and box - board paper are expected to continue to decline, with weak market transactions. [40] - The double - offset paper market shows a weak supply - demand pattern, and the price maintains a low - level fluctuation. [42] - For pulp, the short - term observation of the SP 09 contract is recommended, paying attention to the support at the Monday low. [44] - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, and hold relevant spreads. [47] - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 08 contract, paying attention to the pressure at the Monday high, and hold relevant spreads. [49] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 contract settled at $71.77, down $1.21/barrel (- 1.66%); Brent2508 contract settled at $73.23, down $1.00/barrel (- 1.35%); SC main contract 2508 rose to 529.2 yuan/barrel and then fell to 523 yuan/barrel at night. The Brent main - second - line spread was $1.39/barrel [1] - **Related News**: Iran expressed willingness to return to negotiations and hope for a cease - fire, but the US signaled a possible entry into the Middle - East battlefield, increasing geopolitical risks. OPEC lowered the forecast of non - OPEC+ oil supply growth in 2026 [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Brent's intraday oscillation range is expected to be $72 - 77/barrel. Consider gasoline and diesel crack spreads weakening, and observe options [4] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3605 points at night (- 1.10%), BU2512 closed at 3440 points at night (- 1.29%). Spot prices varied by region [5] - **Related News**: In different regions, asphalt prices showed different trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and weather [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, weakening asphalt - crude oil spreads, and observing options [7] Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4342 at night (- 0.41%), PG2508 closed at 4258 at night (- 0.35%). Spot prices varied by region [7] - **Related News**: Different regions had different price trends due to factors such as cost, supply, and demand [8][9] - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation with a bullish bias for single - side trading [10] Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 3200 at night (- 1.42%), LU08 closed at 3758 at night (- 2.49%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads were given [10] - **Related News**: Russian fuel exports had different trends in different regions, and Singapore's marine fuel sales reached a 16 - month high in May [10][11] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to geopolitical and macro - disturbances, and go long on the FU9 - 1 positive spread on dips [13] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: No specific market review data provided - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory increased more than expected, and European natural gas prices soared due to geopolitical tensions and high - temperature demand [14] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on the HH contract on dips and be bullish on the TTF contract [14] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6758 and then at 6694 at night. Spot prices and PXN were given [15] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [16] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4766 and then at 4724 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [16] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [16] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, long PX and short PTA for spreads, and observe options [17] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4374 and then at 4336 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [18] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak, port inventory decreased, and some Iranian devices stopped [18][19] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [20] Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 main contract closed at 6510 and then at 6448 at night. Spot prices were given [21] - **Related News**: Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarn sales were weak [21] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Bottle - Grade Polyester Chips - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5980 and then at 5926 at night. Spot prices were given [22] - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export quotes were mostly stable with partial small increases [23] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [22] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7589 and then at 7422 at night. Spot prices and basis were given [24] - **Related News**: Benzene - ethylene port inventory decreased, and upstream pure - benzene port inventory increased [24] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - side trading, observe spreads and options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE market prices continued to rise, and PP spot prices varied by region [26] - **Related News**: PE and PP maintenance ratios changed, and producer inventory decreased [26][27] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe in the short - term, short on rebounds in the mid - term, observe spreads and options [29] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC spot prices decreased, and caustic soda spot prices in some regions decreased [29] - **Related News**: Some prices of raw materials and products changed, and some enterprises adjusted prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe PVC in the short - term, short on rebounds in the long - term; be bearish on caustic soda's 09 contract, hold 8 - 10 reverse spreads, and observe options [33] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1174 yuan/ton and then at 1169 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [33][34] - **Related News**: Soda ash inventory increased, and production increased [34] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [35] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures main 09 contract closed at 980 yuan/ton and then at 978 yuan/ton at night. Spot prices changed [35][36] - **Related News**: The glass market was weak, and some macro - data were unfavorable [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Interval operation with a short - bias for single - side trading, observe spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [37] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot prices in some regions were stable, and the main contract price rose [38] - **Related News**: Imported log shipping costs were stable, and arrival volumes in some ports changed [38] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe single - side trading, pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spreads, and observe options [39] Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices mostly remained stable with some declines in the South [39][40] - **Related News**: Market transactions were weak, raw material prices decreased, and production loads decreased [40] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper market was stable, and production and inventory data were given [41][42] - **Related News**: The market showed a weak supply - demand pattern [42] - **Trading Strategy**: No specific trading strategy provided Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP main 09 contract showed a small oscillation [42] - **Related News**: The papermaking industry was in the off - season, and some paper enterprises tried to raise prices [43][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the SP 09 contract, pay attention to the support at the Monday low, and observe spreads [44] Natural Rubber - **Market Review**: RU, NR, and BR contract prices changed, and spot prices were given [44][45] - **Related News**: China's auto production and sales increased in May [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 and NR 08 contracts, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [47] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR contract price decreased, and related spot prices were given [47] - **Related News**: A tire company had development plans [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 08 contract, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high, hold relevant spreads, and observe options [49]

| 业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月17日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解镍 | 120725 | 121500 | -775 | -0.64% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镇 | 121775 | 122650 | -875 | -0.71% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2500 | 2500 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 119625 | 120650 | -1025 | -0.85% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镍升贴水 | 350 | 200 | -150 | | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -192 | -192 | 1 | -0.31% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3090 | -3668 | 578 | -15.76% | 元/肥 | | ...

2025年06月17日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：地缘冲突缓和 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 3 | | 铜：缺乏驱动，价格震荡 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍：矿端担忧有所降温，冶炼供应弹性饱满 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，供需双弱低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：成本下移趋势延续，锂价或仍偏弱 | 15 | | 工业硅：逢高空配思路为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：关注市场情绪变化 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：宏观情绪扰动，宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：安检趋于严格，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原 ...

5 月经济数据呈现温和复苏态势，但各领域修复节奏呈现明显分化，主要 表现为"消费强、生产稳、投资缓"的特征：消费端成为最大亮点，社零 增速创下 2024 年以来新高；生产端整体保持平稳，高技术制造业和装备 制造业继续领跑；投资端有所放缓，地产投资是主要拖累，但基建和制造 业投资仍维持韧性。 值得关注的是，政策驱动效应仍是支撑宏观经济修复的关键力量：一方面， 央行维持适度宽松的货币政策基调，实施降准降息，推出结构性货币工具， 加大流动性投放等；另一方面，积极的财政政策持续发力，3000 亿元支持 消费品以旧换新加力扩围，促进消费维持较高增速，以及地方专项债加速 发行，对基建投资仍有一定支撑。 于债市而言，国内经济呈现"弱复苏、强分化"特征，利多因素在于地产 投资持续偏弱、PPI 下行压力加剧、出口增速边际放缓；利空因素在于消 费超预期回暖、财政政策发力下效果逐渐显现。海外方面，中美伦敦贸易 谈判落地，重在巩固日内瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架。短期内长端利率或 维持震荡偏多格局，关注调整带来的交易机会，后续突破也仍需等待更强 的政策信号，关注 6 月 18 日至 19 日的陆家嘴论坛，以及 7 月政治局会议。 消费超 ...