周喜证券分析师 SAC No：S1150511010017 靳沛芃研究助理 SAC No：S1150124030005 美债市场概览 美债市场起源于独立战争，至今已超200年历史，期间经历多次重大事件，包括南北战争催化下的现代国债体系形成、世界大战后的国际化推进、布雷顿 森林体系瓦解导致的"美元锚"切换以及21世纪多次危机背景下发行量的激增。数据显示，美国债券市场总规模占全球的比例超40%，运作上实行以立法为 基础，发行市场多头管理，交易市场统一监管，托管结算集中统一的体制。鉴于美国债券市场庞大的体系，下文主要以规模最大、影响范围最广的国债作 为主要分析对象。 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 从规模来看，截至2024年末美国国债总规模较2017年接近翻倍，规模达28.3万亿美元。发行方面，通常遵循两个原则：一是考虑收益率曲线不同期限上的 发行规模，使预期成本最低；二是通过季度再融资过程与市场参与者沟通，提供有规律、可预测的国债发行指引并根据反馈逐步调整发行规模。同时，发 行也会受债务上限约束，触及时会产生国库现金账户（TGA）大幅变动、借款成本增加、信用评级下调等负面 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy and Growth - The macroeconomic policy will intensify monetary and fiscal efforts to promote stable economic growth and maintain reasonable price levels in the second half of the year [1] - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global economic growth and rising trade barriers [1] - Domestic demand expansion and technological innovation will be prioritized to effectively respond to external changes [1] Group 2: New Productive Forces - Strategic emerging industries accounted for over 13% of GDP in 2023, expected to exceed 17% by 2025 [2] - The semiconductor industry is projected to reach a market size of over $180 billion by 2025, with a domestic production rate of 50% [2] - The AI sector is rapidly developing, with significant advancements in domestic models and applications across various fields [2] - The photovoltaic industry continues to thrive with ongoing technological innovations and cost reductions [2] - The new energy vehicle market saw production and sales growth of 45.2% and 44% respectively from January to May [2] - The biopharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by approximately 15% year-on-year by mid-2025 [2] Group 3: Consumption Recovery - Social retail sales grew by 5% year-on-year from January to May 2025, an increase from 3.5% at the end of 2024 [4] - Policies like "trade-in" have significantly boosted consumption, while some sectors face structural sales slowdowns [4] - Consumer demand is expected to continue its upward trend in the second half of the year, with a projected annual growth of about 6% in retail sales [5] Group 4: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) grew by 3.7% year-on-year from January to May 2025 [6] - Investment in high-tech manufacturing and infrastructure is expected to maintain a strong growth rate, contributing significantly to overall investment growth [7] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 6% for the year, driven by government funding and local initiatives [8] Group 5: Real Estate Market - The real estate market is in a long-term bottoming phase, with a 10.7% year-on-year decline in real estate development investment from January to May [9] - The market is expected to continue its contraction, with a projected 5% decline in sales area for the year [10] - Government policies are expected to support the market, but challenges remain due to high debt levels among developers [10] Group 6: Export Outlook - China's exports are projected to grow by about 5% in the first half of the year, despite tariff pressures from the U.S. [11] - The export outlook for the second half is complex, with potential scenarios ranging from stable to a decline of up to 7% depending on U.S. tariff policies [12][13] Group 7: Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy has become more proactive, with significant government bond issuance and an increase in budgetary spending [14] - The fiscal deficit is set at 4.0%, with a focus on expanding investment and stabilizing trade [15] Group 8: Monetary Policy - The monetary policy remains "appropriately loose," with significant liquidity support and interest rate adjustments [16] - The central bank is expected to further lower interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic growth [18] Group 9: Economic Pressures - Despite improvements in economic growth, domestic demand remains weak, with ongoing deflationary pressures [19] - The overall economic environment is expected to face challenges, including high inventory levels and structural overcapacity [20]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色偏强震荡 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜主力期价整体在 8.05 万上方震荡运行，沪铜持仓量持续 上升。宏观层面，中东局势缓和，海外风险偏好回升；国内中央财 经委员会第六次会议后，国内宏观预期升温，此外，国内财新制造 业 PMI 超预期，利好铜价。产业层面，Mysteel 消息，铜价重心上移 明显，下游企业采购情绪疲弱，持货商挺价情绪减弱。宏观推动铜 价上行，期价突破 8 万后增仓上行明显，预计维持强势运行，关注 5 日均线支撑。 沪铝 今日 ...

宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 经济短期动能增强，但实体经营预期下行 ——6 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 可以交叉印证的是，采购、库存、生产经营预期等分项的走势依然显示当前新出口 订单可能短单居多，长单不足，导致当下产需回暖，但对美国关税豁免到期后的经 营预期依然偏弱。6 月原材料库存、产成品库存、采购量、进口 PMI 分别为 48%、 48.1%、50.2%、47.8%（47.4%、46.5%、47.6%、47.1%），均上升，但生产经 营活动预期为 52%（52.5%）。 | 缩量与前置：关税反复后的出口预判 | 2025-06-30 | | --- | --- | | 东方战略观察：伊以冲突走向缓和，全球 | 2025-06-28 | | 风险偏好提升 | | | 美元短期反弹，并不意味趋势反转：—— | 2025-06-26 | | 海外札记 20250623 | | 有关分析师的申明，见本报告最后部分。其他重要信息披露见分析师申明之后部分，或请与您的投资代表联系。并请阅读本证券研究报告最后一页的免责申明。 ⚫ 6 月 PMI 数据延续回升趋势，结构特点大体与上个月相同，但上行斜率放缓，其中 暗含了新的线索。 ...

+ 半年度策略报告 2025 年 7 月 2 日 原料不确定性较强，下方支撑稳固 《宏源期货有色金属年报_铅：原料偏紧 格局下，铅价能否再创新高 20231222》 《宏源铅季报：成本与库存博弈，铅价上 下空间有限 20240402》 《宏源期货有色金属季报_铅：铅价回归 理性，波动或收窄》 《宏源期货有色金属半年报_铅：原料偏 紧逐步传导至锭端，铅价抗跌性较强 20240626》 《宏源期货有色金属年报_铅：原料及供 应仍为铅价波动主导因素》 《宏源期货有色金属季报_铅：原料问题 未解，铅价下方支撑尚存 20250403》 报告摘要： 分析师：祁玉蓉 从业资格证号：F03100031 投资咨询证号：Z0021060 研究所 金属期货（期权）研究室 TEL： 010-82295006 Email： qiyurong@swhysc.com 相关图表 相关报告： 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 行情回顾： 国内现货：截至 6 月 30 日，SMM1#铅锭平均价 16,950 元/吨， 较去年年底上涨 1.35%，较去年同期下跌 11.49%；再生精铅平 均价 16,875 元/吨，较去年年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The improvement of the macro - situation drives up risk appetite, and the index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range. However, there are risks in different sectors, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each variety [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The macro situation has improved, the index has broken through the short - term shock range, and the dividend sector has rebounded. In the process of the central shift upward, be vigilant against the risk of chasing high. It is recommended to sell MO options with an exercise price of 5900 from August to September with a light position to collect option premiums. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips in the short term, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: At the beginning of the month, the capital market loosened, and treasury bonds rebounded as a whole, but there is currently no momentum to break through the previous high. In the short - term unilateral strategy, it is recommended to appropriately allocate long positions on dips, take profit when approaching the previous high, and pay attention to economic data and capital trends. Also, pay attention to steepening the curve [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The threat of US tariffs has increased, the US dollar index has continued to decline, and gold has continued its rebound trend. If the gold price stabilizes above the 60 - day moving average, it will fluctuate above $3300; the silver price will oscillate in the range of $35.5 - $36.5. Pay attention to the impact of US economic data on the Fed's monetary policy expectations [2]. Black - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For unilateral operations, it is recommended to wait and see for now. For arbitrage, pay attention to the operation of going long on steel products and short on raw materials [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The Tangshan production restriction policy may suppress iron ore demand. It is recommended to short at high levels, with the fluctuation range referring to 690 - 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction non - successful bid rate has decreased, the expectation of coal mine复产 has strengthened, the spot is running strongly, the transaction has warmed up, and coal mine shipments have improved. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. - **Coke**: The fourth round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills on June 23 has been implemented, the coking profit has declined, and the price is approaching the phased bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and then go long on dips or go long on coking coal and short on coke after stabilization [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The COMEX - LME spread has widened again, and high copper prices are suppressing downstream procurement. The main contract reference range is 79000 - 81000 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The oversupply pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended to lay out short positions at high levels in the medium term. The main contract reference range is 2750 - 3100 [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market follows the high - level oscillation of aluminum prices, and the fundamentals in the off - season remain weak. The main contract reference range is 19200 - 20000 [2]. - **Zinc**: The demand expectation is still weak, and the downstream willingness to take delivery is low. The main contract reference range is 21500 - 22500 [2]. - **Lead**: The market maintains an oscillation, the sentiment is temporarily stable, but the industrial overcapacity still restricts the market. The main contract reference range is 116000 - 124000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is weakly oscillating, the sentiment is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals remain weak. The main contract reference range is 12300 - 13000 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The demand - side expectation has improved, driving the market to stabilize. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The support for WTI is in the range of [63, 64], the upper - end pressure for Brent is in the range of [64, 65], and the pressure level for SC is in the range of [480, 490] [2]. - **Urea**: The supply is at a high level while the demand release is insufficient, and the short - term market is likely to continue to bottom out. It is recommended to go long on dips in the short term, and exit if the actual quota fails to meet the expectation. The support level for the main contract is adjusted to 1690 - 1700 [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand is tight, but the oil price support is limited. PX will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. PX09 will oscillate in the range of 6600 - 6900 in the short term. Be cautious and bearish near the upper edge of the range; pay attention to the opportunity to widen the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation is weakening, and the oil price support is limited. PTA will follow the raw materials to oscillate in the short term. TA will oscillate in the range of 4600 - 4900 in the short term. Allocate bearishly at the upper edge of the range; temporarily exit the TA9 - 1 reverse arbitrage [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With the expectation of factory production cuts, the processing fee is gradually being repaired. The unilateral strategy for PF is the same as that for PTA; mainly widen the processing fee at the low level of the PF market [2]. - **Bottle - chip**: It is the demand peak season, the production cuts of bottle - chips are gradually being implemented, the processing fee is bottoming out, and PR follows the cost to fluctuate. The unilateral strategy for PR is the same as that for PTA; conduct positive arbitrage on PR8 - 9 on dips; the processing fee of the PR main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 600 yuan/ton. Pay attention to the opportunity to widen at the lower edge of the range [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply - demand is gradually becoming loose, and the short - term demand is weak. It is expected that MEG will be weakly sorted. Hold the seller of the short - term call option EG2509 - C - 4450; conduct reverse arbitrage on EG9 - 1 at high levels [2]. - **Styrene**: Styrene may continue to weaken. Pay attention to the continuation of the decline in oil prices. Look for high - level short - selling opportunities for styrene with raw - material resonance [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Butadiene is weakening, and there is pressure above BR. Short at high levels for BR2508 in the short term [2]. - **LLDPE**: The spot price is falling, and the trading is weak. It will oscillate in the short term [2]. - **PP**: The supply - demand is weak on both sides, and the cost - side support is weakening. Treat it with caution and bearishly, and enter short positions at 7250 - 7300 [2]. - **Methanol**: The basis is strong. Pay attention to the later shipments from Iran. Wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: US soybeans are oscillating at the bottom, and the lower - end support is strengthening. Conduct short - term operations [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot sentiment is strong, but the market is suppressed by profit - taking. Treat it with caution and bearishly [2]. - **Corn**: The import auction has a premium, and the market is slightly increasing steadily. Pay attention to the support at 2360 - 2370 [2]. - **Oils**: The decline in production supports the strong oscillation of palm oil. The reference range for P2509 is 8200 - 8500 [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is relatively loose. Trade bearishly on rebounds [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market remains weak. The market rushes up and then falls back. Hold short positions in the short term [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot market remains weak. Go long on short - term rebounds, but still be bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The trading is generally stable, and the transaction is priced according to quality. The main contract runs around 7700 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The market price is rising. The main contract runs around 9600 [2]. - **Peanuts**: The market price is oscillating steadily. The main contract runs around 8200 [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The oversupply logic is re - dominating the market, and the market is weakening again. Hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The spot sales are deteriorating, and the market is weakening. Adopt a short - term bearish thinking [2]. - **Rubber**: There is an expectation of weakening fundamentals. Continue to hold short positions above 14000 [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The resumption of production by southwestern enterprises has increased, and the industrial silicon price has declined. Wait and see [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon futures price is oscillating downward. Wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is fluctuating widely, the news disturbance is increasing, and the fundamentals still face pressure. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 58,000 - 64,000 [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC market is rising. Wait and see cautiously. It is expected that the 08 contract will hover between 1800 - 2000. For unilateral operations, wait and see for now [2].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 | | | | 海外商品涨跌幅 | | | | | | 塑料 | | 7249 | -0.17% | -0.73% | -0.17% | 1.38% | -11.36% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | 日度涨跌幅 | 周度涨跌幅 | 月度涨跌幅 | 季度涨跌幅 | 今年涨跌幅 | | | PP | 7044 | -0.37% | -0.83% | -0.37% | -0.75% | -5.79% | | 能源 | NYMEX WTI原油 | 64.97 | -0.15% | -0.15% | | 2.85% | -9.60% | | | PVC | 4821 | -1.39% | -1.99% | -1.39% | -2.82% | -8.87% | | | ICE布油 | 66.63 | 0.44% | 0.44% | | 1.22% | -10.9 ...

黑色建材日报 | 2025-07-02 市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 钢材：市场预期较弱，钢价震荡运行 市场分析 昨日螺纹钢期货合约收于3003元/吨，热卷主力合约收于3136元/吨，市场投机氛围较弱，现货市场成交情况一般偏 弱，企业刚需拿货为主，昨日全国建材成交10万吨。 供需与逻辑：综合来看，钢材进入传统消费淡季，目前产量小幅上升，库存小幅去库，整体略好于季节性预期。 螺纹方面，现货市场成交一般，但库存持续小幅去库，对价格形成一定支撑。板材维持供需两旺格局，国内制造 业发展相对乐观，需求较稳支撑板材价格。国内低价优势下，出口钢材韧性较强，近期中美会谈取得一定成果， 宏观情绪出现好转，目前钢材价格整体维持稳定。后续关注供给侧政策落地情况，以及季节性消费淡季的需求变 化情况。 策略 单边：中性 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、成材需求情况、钢材出口、钢厂利润、成本支撑等。 铁矿：市场情绪转弱，矿价震荡下行 市场分析 昨日铁矿石期货价格震荡下行。现货方面，进口铁矿主流品种价格小幅下跌，贸易商报价积极性一般，报价多随 行就市，市场交投情绪一般，钢厂采购多以按需补库为主。昨日全国主 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-07-02 欧元区6月制造业PMI超预期，关注美国6月ADP数据 市场分析 7月将迎来国内的政治局会议。5月国内数据好坏参半，5月投资数据整体走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增，后续或 将拖累财政收入，及整个地产链条；同时出口也略有承压，5月"抢出口"成色一般，叠加美国5月零售销售走弱， 前期需求透支下，后续外需预计将承压；5月仅有消费表现韧性，第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下达。中国6 月官方制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，比上月上 升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点。在特朗普关税缓释期，我国经济景气水平有所回升，但制造业PMI已连续3个月处于荣 枯线之下，经济运行压力仍存。新订单指数回升至扩张区间，非制造业延续扩张，随着政策红利的逐步落地，投 资和消费相关需求有望持续释放。中国央行公开市场6月26日净投放3,058亿元，创4月30日来最高。面对关税下的 外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注7月政治局会议进一步加码稳增长政策的可能。 关于7月9日到期的关税延后政策，6月12日特朗普政府首次公开承认其关税时间表存在灵活性。 ...

早间评论 西南期货研究所 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 上海市浦东新区世纪大道 210 号 10 楼 1001； 021-50591197 | 国债： | 4 | | --- | --- | | 股指： | 5 | | 贵金属： 5 | | | 螺纹、热卷： 5 | | | 铁矿石： 6 | | | 焦煤焦炭： 6 | | | 铁合金： 7 | | | 原油： | 8 | | 燃料油： 9 | | | 合成橡胶： 9 | | | 天然橡胶： 10 | | | PVC： | 10 | | 尿素： | 11 | | 对二甲苯 | PX： 11 | | PTA： | 11 | | 乙二醇： 12 | | | 短纤： | 12 | | 瓶片： | 13 | | 纯碱： | 13 | | 玻璃： | 14 | | 烧碱： | 14 | | 纸浆： | 15 | | 碳酸锂： 16 | | | 铜： | 16 | | --- | --- | | 锡： | 17 | | 镍： | 17 | | 豆油、豆粕： 17 | | | 棕榈油： 18 | | | 菜粕、菜油： 19 | | | 棉花： | 19 | | 白糖： ...