投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-08 OPEC+增产超预期，库存区域分布不均 衡导致外强内弱，能化震荡 石油输出国组织及其合作伙伴（OPEC+）已决定在8月超预期增产54. 8万桶/日，且预计9月将进一步增产。该组织领导层对市场消化额外原油 的能力持乐观态度，理由是全球经济前景稳定，市场基本面健康。我们看 到当前原油累库具有区域性的不均衡，中国库存升至五年高点，欧美国家 石油库存依旧位于中位偏低水平。这可能导致OPEC+的增产一时间还无法 施压于原油市场。但是中长期，随着产量增速的逐步累计，原油的过剩将 逐步具有普遍性。 板块逻辑： 化工延续震荡整理态势，市场并未有明显趋势。液体化工周一公布库 存，EB和EG库存环比攀升，BZ库存周度略降；当前EB和BZ库存均位于五年 同期最高或偏高水平，EG库存依旧是五年同期最低。高库存格局下反弹空 间将有限，低库存则可能受到供给意外减量的提振。甲醇太仓基差过去一 周崩塌式下跌，这对盘面09合约带来些许压力。聚酯产业链对需求的担忧 依旧拖累期价。 原油：沙特上调OSP且美国推迟加征关税，油价反弹 LPG：盘面回 ...

Group 1 - Malaysian palm oil futures have experienced two consecutive days of gains, driven by a decline in palm oil production and strong export demand [1] - There is a potential decrease in Malaysia's palm oil inventory, which may impact market supply and demand dynamics [1] - The market is closely monitoring whether palm oil prices can maintain their strength amid these changing conditions [1]

芳烃下游及终端开⼯下滑，化⼯整体供 需变化较⼩ 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-07-04 伊朗外交部长在媒体上公开表示"伊朗仍致力于《不扩散核武器条 约》及其保障协定"，他表示，伊朗未来与国际原子能机构的合作将经由 最高国家安全委员会来进行。这显然边际减轻了市场对地缘的恐慌情绪。 数据显示，美国6月新增非农就业人数连续第四个月超出预期，失业率下 降，这表明美国劳动力市场依然健康。原油近端需求尚可，供给增量也未 带来库存的大幅攀升，油价延续震荡整理。 板块逻辑： 化工板块品种之间差异较大。苯乙烯自身开工率变化较小，但几个下 游无一例外都出现了开工率的环比下行。PTA产业链也出现了下游及终端 开工率的大幅下滑，聚酯开工下降0.8%，织机和加弹开工率分别下滑4% 和7%。油化工自身供需在走弱，煤化工甲醇则受到西北装置检修的提振。 化工品整体本周都出现了基差的收缩，整体仍是震荡格局。工信部召开会 议表示，依法依规、综合智利光伏行业低价无序竞争，这对国内商品都有 些许提振。 原油：周度整体再度去库，欧美经济数据较好油价延续震荡 LPG：盘面回归交易基本面宽松， ...

甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/07/01 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/06/2 4 801 2635 2510 2510 2600 2480 2615 285 346 160 240 -1163 2025/06/2 5 801 2640 2518 2480 2600 2470 2590 285 346 155 250 -1189 2025/06/2 6 801 2760 2505 2480 2600 2460 2580 286 347 258 340 -1243 2025/06/2 7 801 2820 2505 2460 2600 2460 2580 282 350 267 400 -1176 2025/06/3 0 801 2785 2485 2430 2600 2445 2543 282 350 267 350 -1173 日度变化 0 -35 -20 -30 0 -15 -37 0 0 0 -50 3 观点 高进口开始兑现，累库开始发生，盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trend of soda ash futures prices remains weakly volatile due to supply decline from equipment maintenance, weak downstream demand, and inventory accumulation. The long - term pattern is one of oversupply. The weak demand for architectural glass also suppresses the continuous upward momentum of soda ash futures prices [8]. - The short - term rebound space of glass is limited, and it is expected to operate with low - level volatility. The glass market is in the traditional rainy season, with weakening orders, high supply, falling costs, and continuous inventory accumulation. The real - estate completion stage has not improved substantially [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Futures Data on June 26**: The main soda ash futures contract SA509 oscillated strongly. The closing price was 1,180 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton or 1.72%, with a daily reduction of 32,209 lots. Other contracts also showed certain price increases [7][8]. - **Soda Ash Fundamental Situation**: In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash output dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and was still at a high level this year. The weekly capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The shipment volume was 676,500 tons, a 5.29% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of manufacturers was 1,766,900 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Glass Fundamental Situation**: In the traditional rainy season, glass processing orders weakened slightly. Supply remained high, costs declined, and inventory continued to accumulate. The real - estate completion stage had not improved substantially, and the spot market had intense price competition with declining transaction prices [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides price trend charts of active soda ash and glass contracts, as well as data on the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China and flat - glass production, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [11][14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][3][5][8] Core Views - The steel market is facing concerns about the off - season, with the black market shifting towards fundamentals. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction of steel is not significant, and future attention should be paid to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts, inventory, and consumption [1]. - The iron ore market is experiencing weak demand in the off - season and is likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3]. - The coking coal and coke market has eased market sentiment and is operating in a volatile manner. The supply - demand situation of coke has improved, while the price of coking coal is expected to fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. - The动力煤 market shows a contraction in supply at the end of the month, and the coal prices in the production areas continue to be strong. In the short term, the price is expected to rise slightly, while the long - term supply pattern remains loose [8]. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,976 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,098 yuan/ton. The national building materials turnover was 93,500 tons. The black market is turning to fundamentals, and the supply - demand contradiction of building materials is gradually accumulating. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of building materials, and although exports have slightly declined, they remain high in the short term [1]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed for single - side, inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: The futures price of iron ore continued to weaken, with the main 2509 contract closing at 702.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. The total national main port iron ore trading volume was 1.077 million tons, a 32.47% increase. The forward spot trading volume was 670,000 tons, a 39.09% decrease. The global shipment increased slightly, iron - making water production increased slightly, and the total iron ore inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Strategy**: A single - side strategy of weak and volatile is recommended, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [4]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal and coke futures are operating in a volatile manner. The fourth - round price cut of coke has been fully implemented, and the market's expectation of price stability has increased. Many coking coal mines have stopped or reduced production, and the replenishment of coking and steel enterprises is insufficient. The price of imported Mongolian coal is relatively stable [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to operate in a volatile manner, and no strategies are proposed for other trading types [7]. 动力煤 - **Market Analysis**: The coal prices in the main production areas continue to be strong. At the end of the month, a few coal mines will complete their production capacity and reduce production. The procurement demand for metallurgy and chemical industry is stable. The port inventory has decreased significantly, and the import coal market is stable [8]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategies are proposed [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation". Specific varieties are rated as follows: steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, and ferrosilicon are expected to oscillate; soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly; and ferromanganese is expected to oscillate [6][8][9][10][14][15][17][18]. Core View of the Report - Affected by the news that Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz, the black building materials sector was strong on Monday. The main reason is that the black sector is in a vacuum period with limited trading drivers. The overall supply and demand of the industry have strengthened month - on - month, with no pressure on inventory, but the market's outlook for future demand remains pessimistic, and the market is in an oscillatory consolidation stage [1][2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mines are expected to increase shipments seasonally at the end of the fiscal year and quarter. Shipments may remain high until early July, but the year - on - year increase is limited. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises and molten iron production are expected to remain high in the short term. This week, arrivals have increased seasonally, and port inventories have slightly increased. There is an expectation of a small - scale increase in ore inventories, but the overall supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. Focus on the profitability and maintenance plans of steel enterprises [2]. Carbon Element - Recently, environmental and safety inspections in major production areas have become stricter, resulting in a continuous decline in coking coal production, but the overall supply contraction is limited. In terms of imports, the enthusiasm of traders for hauling is weak, and port clearance remains at a low level. On the demand side, coke production has declined from its high level, and there is an expectation of a further decline in coke enterprises' operations. In terms of inventory, the rigid demand for coking coal has declined, and the overall amount of downstream raw material replenishment demand is limited. The upstream inventory of coking coal remains at a high level in recent years, and the structural inventory problem has not improved significantly. Coking coal prices lack a driving force for a trending increase [3]. Alloys - **Ferromanganese**: The manganese ore market has stabilized, with a shortage of circulating resources for some ore types. Traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, increasing the difficulty of downstream procurement bargaining. Some factories have plans to resume production, and a new production capacity is expected to be put into operation in Inner Mongolia in the second half of the month, so ferromanganese production may continue to increase. As the terminal steel demand enters the off - season, the supply and demand of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and the market sentiment for manganese ore has improved. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Ferrosilicon manufacturers' profits are poor, and the overall supply level remains low. Manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. Affected by the high - school entrance examination, college entrance examination, and rainy season, the downstream construction progress is average, and the terminal steel demand is about to enter the off - season. The downstream has a strong willingness to actively reduce inventory, and the market sentiment remains cautious. The demand in the magnesium metal market is weak, and prices lack the impetus to rise [3]. Glass - In the off - season, the demand for glass is declining, the deep - processing demand has continued to weaken month - on - month, and the upstream inventory has accumulated, with off - season pressure still existing, although the sales in Shahe have slightly improved. On the supply side, a 1000 - ton production line has started producing glass, a 700 - ton production line has been cold - repaired, and four more production lines are waiting to produce glass, so the supply pressure remains. The actual demand in the off - season faces certain pressure, the market price is at a premium to the Hubei spot price, and there are many emotional disturbances. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [6]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern of soda ash has not changed. As maintenance gradually resumes, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will continue to decline in the long term [6]. Specific Varieties - **Steel**: This week, the overall supply and demand have strengthened month - on - month, but inventory is still being reduced. The main factor suppressing the market price is the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate in the short term [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore remains stable at a high level, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The overall contradiction is not obvious, and it is expected that the price will oscillate [8][9]. - **Scrap Steel**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, and the price of finished products is under pressure. Electric furnaces are operating at a loss during off - peak hours. It is expected that the price of scrap steel will oscillate in the future [9]. - **Coke**: After the fourth round of price cuts, the market's expectation of price stability has increased, but there are still differences in views on the future. The coke enterprises' inventory needs to be digested, and the demand support is insufficient. There is downward pressure on coke prices in the medium term [10][11][13]. - **Coking Coal**: The market supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the high upstream inventory restricts the price increase. It is expected that the price will oscillate weakly and stably [14]. - **Silicon Manganese**: There is an expectation of increased production, and the terminal steel demand is entering the off - season, so the supply and demand tend to be loose. However, due to cost - price inversion, the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - **Silicon Iron**: The supply - demand contradiction is limited, and manufacturers are reluctant to lower prices. There is an expectation of increased production from some manufacturers, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. It is expected that the market will oscillate in the short term [18].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that while gold is often regarded as a safe-haven asset, its risk-hedging capabilities are not absolute and are influenced by various market conditions and investor behavior [2][7]. - Gold has historically demonstrated stability during crises, such as wars and economic downturns, due to its scarcity and physical properties, which contribute to its demand as a tangible asset [3][4]. - The negative correlation between gold and the US dollar enhances gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, particularly during periods of dollar weakness [4]. Group 2 - Despite its reputation, gold is not immune to market volatility; during liquidity crises, investors may sell gold along with other assets, leading to price declines [4][5]. - Gold lacks yield generation, making it less attractive during periods of economic growth when investors may prefer higher-return assets like stocks and bonds [5]. - Market supply and demand fluctuations significantly impact gold prices, with changes in jewelry demand and ETF inflows/outflows being critical factors [5][6]. Group 3 - Liquidity risks in the gold market can affect trading conditions, with wider bid-ask spreads during extreme market conditions, complicating transactions [6]. - Investor behavior and market psychology play a crucial role in gold price movements, often driven by short-term speculation rather than fundamental factors [6]. - Gold's role in a diversified investment portfolio is to reduce overall risk, but over-reliance on gold can lead to insufficient returns, especially in bull markets [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Grains and Oilseeds - Domestic soybean inventory pressure is manageable, and soybean meal inventory remains low. Despite improved开机 rates, there is no inventory pressure on soybean meal due to active downstream pick - up. The basis has slightly improved this week. The subsequent supply is expected to maintain a high arrival volume, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored. The unilateral trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, but the support from US soybeans is strengthening, and the Brazilian premium is also expected to be strong before the expectation of US soybean imports opens. The futures price may follow the US soybeans for a short - term correction, but the space is limited. It is recommended to place rolling long orders on dips [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - The spot price of live pigs maintains a volatile structure. The slaughter weight of live pigs is slowly declining, and the reluctance to sell among farmers has increased recently, driving a rebound in the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, which supports the price this week. There are no obvious signs of improvement on the demand side, and the market price is expected to remain volatile [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - Currently, the supply varies with the rhythm of traders. Northeast traders have tight inventories and are reluctant to sell at low prices, keeping the price firm. North China traders take profits after the corn price rises to a high level, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants has recovered on weekends, with the price remaining stable with partial declines. The profit of downstream deep - processing has recovered, the operating rate has increased slightly, and the inventory is stable. The breeding sector replenishes inventory on a just - in - time basis. However, the shrinking price difference between wheat and corn and even parity have increased the substitution for feed use, limiting the increase in corn prices. In the long - term, the tight supply of corn, low import volume, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward trend of corn prices. In the short - term, the tight supply supports the corn price, but the concentrated listing of wheat restricts the upward rhythm. However, the expansion of the minimum purchase price policy range supports the price, and the corn market remains in a volatile and slightly strong state with limited amplitude. Attention should be paid to the subsequent wheat market and policy situation [6]. Sugar - The sugar production data in Brazil in late May increased year - on - year, and the weather in India and Thailand is favorable for sugarcane growth. The global supply is becoming more abundant, putting pressure on raw sugar. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a volatile and weak pattern. Currently, the negative factors in the market have been fully reflected in the price trend. If there are no new negative factors to drive the market, the possibility of a significant decline in sugar prices is small. It is expected to maintain a bottom - range oscillation this week, with a reference range of 5650 - 5800 [10]. Oils and Fats - For palm oil, the Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures are oscillating around 4100 ringgit. Due to concerns about the slowdown in export growth in the first 20 days, the crude palm oil futures have slightly declined after reaching a high. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support at 4100 ringgit. In the domestic market, the Dalian palm oil futures are in a high - level stagnant and declining trend. In the short - term, it is expected to pull back and seek support at 8500 yuan, and there is a possibility of breaking below 8500 yuan and further falling to the 8300 - 8350 yuan range under the influence of the oscillation of Malaysian palm oil. For soybean oil, crude oil has entered an oscillating adjustment state after a significant increase on the 13th, and the supply in the Strait of Hormuz has not been interrupted, so the upside space of crude oil is limited at present, which affects the trend of vegetable oils used as biodiesel raw materials. In the short - term, the CBOT soybean oil main July contract is oscillating below 55 cents. In the domestic market, it is currently the lightest demand season, with schools on vacation and reduced demand from canteens and small restaurants around schools. The high factory operating rate and high soybean oil production have led to inventory accumulation. If the futures price enters a stagnant and adjusting trend, the spot basis quotation will be supported; if the futures price rises again, the spot basis quotation will be dragged down and may decline [12]. Cotton - The market driving force is still weak, the operating rate of the industrial downstream continues to decline, and the finished product inventory continues to rise. However, the weakening force is still not strong. The basis of old - crop cotton is still relatively firm, and only a small amount of cotton in Kashgar has slightly adjusted the basis, but the mainstream price remains unchanged, so there is still support for cotton prices. The long - term supply is expected to be sufficient. In the short - term, the domestic cotton price may oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to the macro and industrial downstream demand [13]. Eggs - The national egg supply is still relatively abundant. The sales speed of low - priced eggs is acceptable, while that of high - priced eggs is average. It is expected that the national egg price may rise slightly this week and then stabilize, with a slight decline later [14][17]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Grains and Oilseeds - **Soybean Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of M2509 is 3067 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 0.32%) from the previous value; the basis of M2509 is - 127 yuan, up 10 yuan (7.30%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is m2509 - 140; the Brazilian 8 - month shipment has a disk import profit of 188 yuan, up 27 yuan (16.8%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 26001, unchanged from the previous value [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2581 yuan, down 9 yuan (- 0.35%) from the previous value; the futures price of RM2509 is 2679 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 0.56%) from the previous value; the basis of RM2509 is - 98 yuan, up 6 yuan (5.77%) from the previous value; the spot basis quote in Guangdong is rm09 - 90; the Canadian 11 - month shipment has a disk import profit of - 30 yuan, down 13 yuan (- 31.25%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 25824, down 30 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value [1]. - **Soybeans**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3960 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean contract is 4259 yuan, up 26 yuan (0.61%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean contract is - 299 yuan, down 26 yuan (- 9.52%) from the previous value; the current price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu is 3690 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the futures price of the main soybean - 2 contract is 3750 yuan, down 14 yuan (- 0.37%) from the previous value; the basis of the main soybean - 2 contract is - 60 yuan, up 14 yuan (18.92%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 19811, down 316 yuan (- 1.57%) from the previous value [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is - 30 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 11.11%) from the previous value; the rapeseed meal inter - delivery spread (09 - 01) is 284 yuan, up 18 yuan (6.77%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the spot is 2.87, up 0.017 (0.60%) from the previous value; the oil - meal ratio of the main contract is 2.66, up 0.010 (0.38%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of the spot is 350 yuan, up 9 yuan (2.57%) from the previous value; the soybean - rapeseed meal spread of 2509 is 388 yuan, up 5 yuan (1.31%) from the previous value [1]. Livestock (Pigs) - **Futures Indicators**: The main contract basis is 505 yuan, down 135 yuan (- 21.09%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2507 is 13335 yuan, up 80 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the price of live pigs 2509 is 13895 yuan, up 135 yuan (0.98%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of live pigs is 560 yuan, up 55 yuan (10.89%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 76202, down 84 (- 0.11%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 750, unchanged from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Prices**: The current prices in Henan and Shandong are 14400 yuan and 14500 yuan respectively, with changes of 0 yuan and 50 yuan; the price in Sichuan is 13650 yuan, down 100 yuan from the previous value; the price in Liaoning is 13950 yuan, up 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Guangdong is 15490 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous value; the price in Hunan is 13910 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the price in Hebei is 14300 yuan, up 100 yuan from the previous value [3]. - **Spot Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 145340 heads, down 1483 heads (- 1.01%) from the previous value; the weekly white - strip price is 20.32 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly piglet price is 28.00 yuan, up 0.9 yuan (3.17%) from the previous value; the weekly sow price is 32.52 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the weekly slaughter weight is 128.28 kg, down 0.5 kg (- 0.42%) from the previous value; the weekly self - breeding profit is 19 yuan, up 22.3 yuan (768.97%) from the previous value; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit is - 187 yuan, up 23.9 yuan (11.32%) from the previous value; the monthly fertile sow inventory is 40380000 heads, down 10000 heads (- 0.02%) from the previous value [3]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2509 is 2409 yuan, up 4 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2380 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is - 29 yuan, down 4 yuan (- 16.00%) from the previous value; the 9 - 1 spread of corn is 120 yuan, up 2 yuan (1.69%) from the previous value; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2460 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.41%) from the previous value; the north - south trade profit is 9 yuan, up 10 yuan (1000.00%) from the previous value; the CIF price is 1927 yuan, down 2 yuan (- 0.12%) from the previous value; the import profit is 533 yuan, up 12 yuan (2.35%) from the previous value; the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning is 16, down 132 (- 89.19%) from the previous value; the position is 1818031, up 12153 (0.67%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 216521, unchanged from the previous value [6]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2507 is 2701 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.04%) from the previous value; the spot price in Changchun is 2720 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the spot price in Weifang is 2940 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis is 19 yuan, down 1 yuan (- 5.00%) from the previous value; the 7 - 9 spread of corn starch is - 87 yuan, up 3 yuan (3.33%) from the previous value; the starch - corn disk spread is 292 yuan, down 3 yuan (- 1.02%) from the previous value; the Shandong starch profit is - 88 yuan, down 10 yuan (- 12.82%) from the previous value; the position is 254743, down 14605 (- 5.42%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt is 24233, unchanged from the previous value [6]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5573 yuan, up 47 yuan (0.85%) from the previous value; the price of sugar 2509 is 5720 yuan, up 62 yuan (1.10%) from the previous value; the ICE raw sugar main contract is 16.53 cents, up 0.18 cents (1.10%) from the previous value; the 1 - 9 spread of sugar is - 147 yuan, down 15 yuan (- 11.36%) from the previous value; the main contract position is 368972, down 15708 (- 4.08%) from the previous value; the warehouse receipt number is 27669, down 610 (- 2.16%) from the previous value; the effective forecast is 0 [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning is 6030 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.17%) from the previous value; the price in Kunming is 5855 yuan, unchanged from the previous value; the basis in Nanning is 310 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 14.36%) from the previous value; the basis in Kunming is 135 yuan, down 62 yuan (- 31.47%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4393 yuan, down 42 yuan (- 0.95%) from the previous value; the imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) is 5578 yuan, down 55 yuan (- 0.98%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) and Nanning is - 1637 yuan, down 52 yuan (- 3.28%) from the previous value; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar (outside quota) and Nanning is - 452 yuan, down 65 yuan (- 16.80%) from the previous value [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1110.72 million tons, up 115.72 million tons (11.63%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales is 724.46 million tons, up 149.81 million tons (26.07%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi is 646.50 million tons, up 28.36 million tons (4.59%) from the previous value; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi is 65.73 million tons, down 0.88 million tons (- 1.32%) from the previous value; the cumulative national sugar sales rate is 65.22%, up 7.49 percentage points (12.97%) from the previous value; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi is 63.96%, up 6.03 percentage points (10.41%) from the previous value; the national industrial inventory is 386.26 million tons, down 34.48 million tons (- 8.20%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Guangxi is 232.97 million tons, down 27.07 million tons (- 10.41%) from the previous value; the sugar industrial inventory in Yunnan is 104.70 million tons, down 3.46 million tons (- 3.20%) from the previous value; the sugar import volume is 13 million tons, up 8 million tons (160.00%) from the previous value [10]. Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: The current price in Jiangsu is 8450 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.60%) from the previous value; the futures price of Y

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel market remained weak, with limited fundamental changes. The industry's over - supply and weak consumption continued to exert pressure. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed a narrow - range oscillation. Fundamentals remained weak, with supply at a high level and demand recovering slowly. The market is expected to operate weakly, with the main contract ranging from 12,400 - 13,000 yuan/ton [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market oscillated, with fundamentals under pressure. The short - term market is expected to operate weakly in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [6]. Tin - The tin market has a tight supply of tin ore and weakening demand. An approach of shorting on rallies based on inventory and import data inflection points is recommended [8]. Zinc - The zinc market has a continuous loose trend in the ore supply. The demand is showing a marginal weakening trend. In the medium - to - long - term, a shorting - on - rallies strategy is suggested, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 21,000 - 21,500 yuan/ton [10]. Aluminum - The alumina market is expected to see an increase in supply and potential inventory accumulation. The medium - term price is expected to reach the cash cost of 2,700 yuan/ton. The aluminum market is supported in the short - term but may face pressure in Q3, with the price expected to range around 20,000 yuan/ton [13]. Copper - The copper market is in a situation of "strong reality + weak expectation". The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the main contract ranging from 77,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Catalog Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel prices remained unchanged. The price of 1 imported nickel increased by 0.13%. The futures import loss decreased by 5.75%. The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27% [1]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP and external - purchased raw materials for producing electrowon nickel decreased, while the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte increased [1]. - **New Energy Materials Price**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 0.36%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed various changes [1]. - **Supply and Demand, Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62%, and imports increased by 8.18%. Inventories in various regions decreased to different extents [1]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The spot prices of 304/2B stainless steel remained stable, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 11.54% [4]. - **Raw Material Price**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 0.27%, and the price of South African 40 - 42% chrome concentrate decreased by 1.77% [4]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production increased by 0.36%, imports increased by 10.26%, and exports decreased by 4.85% [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased [6]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.33%, and the demand increased by 4.81%. In April, imports increased by 56.33% and exports increased by 233.72% [6]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 0.11%, and the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 20.74% [8]. - **Internal - External Ratio and Import Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased by 1.10% [8]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months showed significant changes [8]. - **Fundamental Data (Monthly)**: In April, tin ore imports increased by 18.48%, and in May, SMM refined tin production decreased by 2.37% [8]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased by 0.86%, and the premium decreased [10]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss decreased, and the Shanghai - London ratio increased [10]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months changed slightly [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, refined zinc production decreased by 1.08%, and in April, imports increased by 2.40% and exports increased by 75.76% [10]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 1.36%, and the premium decreased. The prices of alumina in different regions decreased slightly [13]. - **Ratio and Profit/Loss**: The import loss increased, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased [13]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months increased [13]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, alumina production increased by 2.66%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% [13]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.15%, and the premium decreased. The refined - scrap spread increased by 1.08% [14]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contract months decreased [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In May, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12%, and in April, imports decreased by 19.06% [14].