Group 1: Fuel Oil Price Trends - The main futures contract for fuel oil closed at 3002 CNY/ton, a decrease of 361 CNY/ton (-10.73%) from the previous week's closing price [1] - Weekly positions recorded 255,160 contracts with a trading volume of 5.1111 million contracts [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The capacity utilization rate of main refineries for atmospheric distillation was 80.74%, up 0.91% week-on-week and 4.45% year-on-year [2] - Independent refineries' capacity utilization for atmospheric distillation was 57.24%, an increase of 0.23 percentage points from the previous week [2] - The transaction volume of low-sulfur residual oil/asphalt for refineries was 31,500 tons, down 6,250 tons (-66.49%) [2] - Inventory rates in Shandong for oil slurry, residual oil, and wax oil increased to 22.8%, 3.0%, and 4.0% respectively [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - Concerns over geopolitical tensions are affecting market sentiment, with potential conflicts in the Middle East impacting oil prices [3] - The market is expected to enter a phase dominated by fundamentals, with narrow fluctuations in fuel oil prices anticipated [3][4] - Short-term fuel oil prices are expected to remain under pressure due to a lack of market stimulus [4]

与传统黄金投资渠道相比，国际主流交易市场提供的XAU/USD（黄金兑美元）产品呈现三大特性： 对于希望配置黄金资产的普通投资者，需重点关注三大核心要素： 1. 时间连续性（24小时跨市场交易） 2. 纽约COMEX、伦敦LBMA、上海黄金交易所三大市场接力开市，使投资者可实时响应突发事件。2022年俄乌冲突爆发当晚，国际金价在亚市时段瞬 时波动达3.5%，灵活的交易机制让亚太投资者成功捕捉到窗口机会。 3. 双向风险对冲 4. Bloomberg数据显示，美元指数与黄金价格相关系数长期维持在-0.8以上。在美联储加息周期中，具备多空双向操作能力的交易工具，成为对冲本币贬 值的有效手段。 5. 高流动性溢价 6. 国际清算银行（BIS）统计显示，外汇市场日均交易量超7.5万亿美元，其中贵金属相关货币对占12.7%。这种深度流动性确保在2020年3月全球资产抛 售潮中，黄金报价仍维持正常点差，而部分黄金ETF曾出现10%以上溢价。 三、个人参与路径的风险管控要点 据世界黄金协会2025年报告显示，全球央行连续16个季度净购金，年度增储量达1297吨，刷新历史纪录创1971年美元与黄金脱钩以来最高纪录。这种机构 级 ...

Core Viewpoint - The decline in oil prices is attributed to the easing of geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the anticipated increase in production by OPEC+ in August, which enhances supply outlook [1] Group 1: Geopolitical Factors - The market has largely eliminated the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices following the ceasefire between Iran and Israel [1] - Analysts note that the geopolitical tensions that previously supported higher oil prices have diminished significantly [1] Group 2: OPEC+ Production Plans - OPEC+ representatives indicated plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in August, following similar increases in May, June, and July [1] - This planned production increase is expected to further pressure oil prices downward due to improved supply forecasts [1]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 6 月 29 日 镍：矿端支撑有所松动，冶炼端限制上方弹性 不锈钢：库存边际小幅去化，钢价修复但弹性有限 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 报告导读： 沪镍基本面：矿端支撑边际松动，冶炼端逻辑限制上方弹性。镍价下方空间取决于矿端支撑，市场关 于印尼配额增加的消息影响矿端预期，而且往年的第三季度常常是印尼配额释放和镍矿溢价回调的阶段， 7 月印尼镍矿溢价或有小幅回调。其次，菲律宾与印尼矿价经济性差的收敛或限制印尼镍矿的上方弹性， 菲律宾可能删除原矿出口禁令的消息，市场对矿端的担忧预期和炒作情绪有所降温。矿端逻辑逐步走向钝 化后，若定价回归冶炼端基本面逻辑，则上方弹性可能受到供应弹性的压力。7 月不锈钢中国和印尼不锈 钢排产企稳，镍铁边际累库至历史高位，负反馈向镍铁估值施压，从转产经济性和精炼镍成本曲线的角度 考虑，镍铁承压或限制精炼镍估值的上方弹性。精炼镍环节累库不及预期，而运行产能边际增加，供应弹 性限制上方空间，远端可能复刻镍铁和硫酸镍的出清逻辑。 不锈钢基本面：供需双弱运行，库存迎来小幅去化，钢价边际修复但上方弹性有 ...

战略数据研究丨深度报告 [Table_Title] AH 溢价率的缘来和 H 股溢价背后 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 港股行情能否持续？当下部分投资者对于港股"过热"产生了担忧，基于的佐证之一就包括今 年 6 月 11 日，恒生沪深港通 AH 股溢价指数创下 5 年来新低，相较 2024 年年末下跌幅度超过 10%，以及今年 5 月份以来部分标的例如宁德时代、招商银行的 H 股相较于 A 股存在溢价。根 据 AH 溢价率是否能对港股进行有效择时？本篇从 AH 溢价率的计算逻辑出发，复盘历史上 AH 溢价率中枢的变化，并以历史上 H 股相较于 A 股溢价标的为案例，对当下 AH 溢价率的指示性 进行分析。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 23 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 丨证券研究报告丨 cjzqdt11111 2025-06-29 战略数据研究丨深度报告 [ ...

Core Insights - Family offices are experiencing explosive growth in Australia, with at least 2,000 currently operating, representing over 150% growth in the last decade [1] - The entry threshold for establishing a family office is at least 10 million AUD in liquid assets, often significantly more [1] - Ordinary investors can mimic the investment strategies of wealthy individuals through a combination of ETFs and a target annual return of 8% [1][3] Investment Strategy - The primary appeal of family offices lies in their customized asset allocation tailored to each family's unique financial situation, risk tolerance, and spending needs [3] - The long-term goal for family offices is to achieve stable annual returns of 6% to 8% over decades [3] - An 8% annual return is considered the "golden standard" for wealth preservation and transfer, offering more flexibility than merely tracking indices [3] ETF Comparisons - Two ETF providers, Betashares and VanEck, were invited to design asset portfolios targeting an 8% annual return over 30 years, compared to Australia's Future Fund [4] - The asset allocation for VanEck and Betashares includes various categories such as Australian equities, global equities, private equity, and alternatives, with VanEck focusing on a diversified risk premium strategy [4] Risk and Liquidity - Achieving an 8% annual return corresponds to a volatility range of 12%-18%, indicating the necessity for investors to withstand asset fluctuations [5] - Betashares has excluded private assets from its portfolio to mitigate liquidity mismatch risks, opting for more liquid equity products [7] - Both ETF providers suggest allocating 1%-2% of the portfolio to Bitcoin as an alternative asset to enhance diversification and return potential [7] Cost Considerations - Family offices typically charge a management fee of 1%, which translates to 100,000 AUD annually for assets of 10 million AUD, while ETFs have significantly lower annual fees [8] - Family offices provide comprehensive services beyond investment, including legacy planning and family governance, which adds value to their offerings [8] Conclusion - While ETFs may not fully replicate the services of a family office, they can effectively simulate a family office's asset allocation strategy for investors who are clear about their goals, can tolerate volatility, and prioritize long-term returns [9]

Core Viewpoint - The recent ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran has influenced gold prices, leading to a bearish trend in the market, with potential further declines expected in the near term [1]. Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Following the ceasefire announcement, gold prices peaked at 3393 but subsequently fell to 3295, indicating a bearish trend [1]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has shown negative signals, suggesting increased selling pressure and the likelihood of continued price declines [1]. - Key support levels for gold are identified at 3260 and 3253, with a primary bearish outlook prevailing [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategies - A short-term buying opportunity is suggested if gold prices drop to around 3255, with a stop loss at 3245 and a target of 3290-3300 [2]. - A selling strategy is recommended for gold if it rebounds to the 3310-15 range, with a stop loss at 3320 and a target of 3290-3280, extending to 3250 if the price breaks down [2]. Group 3: Silver Market Analysis - Silver prices have shown slight declines after previous gains, trading around 36.50 USD per ounce, with concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence potentially limiting further declines [4]. - The silver market remains bullish as long as prices do not fall below the critical support level of 35.2, with a short-term target of 37 USD [4].

原油周度报告 --地缘冲突缓和 风险溢价快速回落 阳光光 从业资格号：F03142459 投资咨询号：Z0021764 中航期货 2025-06-27 目录 01 报告摘要 03 宏观分析 02 多空焦点 04 数据分析 05 后市研判 报告PA摘R要T 01 | （1）以伊达成停火协议。 | | --- | | 市场焦点 （2）俄罗斯表态愿意支持进一步增产。 | | （3）美国总统特朗普表示，下周美方将与伊朗会谈。 | 重点数据 （1）美国至6月20日当周EIA俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 -46.4万桶，前值-99.5万桶。 （2）美国至6月20日当周EIA原油库存 -583.6万桶，预期-79.7万桶，前值-1147.3万桶。 （3）美国至6月20日当周EIA战略石油储备库存 23.7万桶，前值23万桶。 主要观点 本周以伊双方达成停火协议，原油地缘风险溢价快速回落，本轮冲突持续时间不长且未造成原油供应端出现实质 性的损失，油价基本上回到冲突前的位置。展望后市，随着地缘冲突缓和，市场关注的焦点转移至原油基本面，当前 供应端存在继续增加的预期，但是实际增产的规模低于增产计划，继续扩大增产的预期对油价的压制或弱 ...

Group 1 - The recent conflict between Iran and Israel led to a significant market reaction, with Bitcoin's value temporarily dropping to 716,000 RMB (approximately 98,000 USD) before recovering to 756,000 RMB (103,600 USD) after a ceasefire was reached [1] - The market is showing signs of resilience, with Bitcoin maintaining a critical support level at 756,000 RMB, which is seen as a psychological barrier for bullish investors [1] - Historical data indicates that Bitcoin has only experienced two significant corrections of over 30% since the bull market began in November 2022, suggesting a strong market structure [3] Group 2 - The net inflow of Bitcoin into Binance has drastically decreased to 5,700 BTC, which is less than half of the four-year average, indicating a shift towards a "HODL phase" where investors are holding onto their assets [3] - The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on Binance has dropped to -0.0033%, suggesting that many speculators are betting on a price decline, which historically has led to significant price increases when similar conditions occurred [3] - The U.S. housing finance market is now allowing Bitcoin to be used as collateral for mortgages, marking a significant policy shift that could open up substantial new demand for Bitcoin [5] Group 3 - The FHFA's directive allows borrowers to use Bitcoin holdings as proof of loan qualification without converting to fiat currency, which could lead to an influx of institutional interest in Bitcoin [5] - Bitcoin's price is currently consolidating between 770,000 and 778,000 RMB, with technical indicators suggesting a bullish trend [5] - The market is at a critical juncture, with a potential breakout point at 109,300 USD (approximately 797,000 RMB), which could lead to significant upward movement if surpassed [5] Group 4 - Tether is investing 10 billion USD to create the largest Bitcoin mining operation, indicating a strategic move to enhance Bitcoin network security and potentially increase market influence [5] - Altcoins are also showing bullish signals, with XRP and Ethereum breaking key resistance levels, suggesting a broader market rally may be underway [5] - The recent geopolitical tensions and U.S. policy changes are reshaping the underlying logic of currency value, positioning Bitcoin as a viable asset in traditional finance [7]

【宏观】 中央财政发力：扩内需，保民生 壹｜本周深度报告汇总 5 月央、地层面支出增速分化，前者升，后者落。这体现了中央财政在扩大内需、保障民生方面积极发 力。下半年宏观政策延续积极方向，有望边际加码。 风险提示： 房地产需求有待提振，海外需求仍面临不确定性 。 【策略】 声暂歇处，趋势未央 本周股指调整看似源于外部冲击，实则是结构性交易拥挤下的正常风险释放，后续中国的确定性仍是股市 稳定和阶梯上升的重要基础，看好金融、成长与部分周期。 风险提示： 海外经济衰退超预期，全球地缘政治的不确定性 。 06 、 【批零社服】 免税行业：节奏修复中的配置价值 07、 【有色】 降本大趋势，供给分化新平衡 ③随着 AH 流动性差距缩小，叠加中概股及 A 股优质资产注入，港股新兴产业占比望提升， AH 溢价中 枢将趋势性下行。 风险提示： A 股企业赴港上市不及预期。南向流入港股规模不及预期 。 【海外策略】 港股涨跌更看谁的"脸色" ① 历史上港股与美股走势更相关，但 2020 年以来背离增多，而港股与 A 股联动明显增强。②原因 1 ：过去港股外资占比高且港币与美元挂钩，流动性多受海外影响，当前外资占比下降、南向流入 ...