Core Viewpoint - International gold prices continue to experience fluctuations following a significant drop last Friday, with current prices showing a slight decline and key support levels being tested [1][4]. Price Movements - As of the latest report, London gold is down 0.12% at $4,077.31 per ounce, with intraday lows dipping below $4,050 per ounce [1][2]. - COMEX gold futures also saw a decline of 0.32%, trading at $4,081.20 per ounce, with a minimum price of $4,051.10 during the session [2][3]. Market Influences - The primary factor for the recent gold price correction is the sharp decline in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut, with market probabilities for a December cut dropping from over 90% to below 50% [3][4]. - A strengthening U.S. dollar has increased the cost of gold for non-U.S. investors, further impacting demand [3][4]. - Easing geopolitical tensions have led to a withdrawal of some safe-haven investments from the gold market [3][4]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate high volatility and a potential trading range around the psychological level of $4,000 per ounce, with market participants focused on Federal Reserve policy and economic data [4]. - Long-term bullish sentiment remains intact, supported by ongoing central bank gold purchases and concerns over U.S. debt impacting dollar credibility [4]. - Analysts suggest that the recent volatility is a normal correction following historical highs, with expectations for a rebound once stabilization occurs [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity market fluctuated upward last week, with an overall increase of 0.87%. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, while black and energy - chemical sectors declined by 0.4% and 0.65% respectively [2][6]. - With the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, the commodity market may face short - term pressure. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to market risk appetite, but Fed officials' hawkish statements have cooled the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - **Overall Market**: The commodity market rose 0.87% last week. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products at 0.77% and 0.67% respectively. Black and energy - chemical sectors fell by 0.4% and 0.65% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: Silver, apples, and rapeseed oil were the top gainers, with increases of 7.55%, 5.86%, and 4.09% respectively. Coking coal, eggs, and glass were the top losers, dropping 6.14%, 5.78%, and 5.41% [6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, with significant decreases in precious metals, chemicals, and soft commodities [2][6]. - **Funds**: The overall market scale increased, mainly driven by precious metals. Only the black sector had net capital outflows [2][6]. Outlook for Each Sector - **Precious Metals**: The market initially expected economic data during the US government shutdown to confirm economic weakness and increase the probability of a rate cut, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks suppressed rate - cut expectations. The sector may oscillate at high levels [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: Domestic fixed - asset investment and social financing were below expectations, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed cooled. With a slight inventory build - up and a tight long - term supply - demand outlook, the sector may face short - term pressure [2]. - **Black Sector**: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to fall. Iron ore production rebounded last week but still has room to cut. Steel mills' profit margins are average, and they are eager to lower raw material prices. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy Sector**: OPEC's November report raised non - OPEC+ supply growth and maintained demand growth, shifting the balance from a shortage to equilibrium. The IEA also increased its surplus forecast, and EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 641.3 million barrels. Although geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may support oil prices, the market may face short - term pressure [3]. - **Chemical Sector**: For polyester products, the strong overseas gasoline crack spread and tight US aromatic supply boosted the Asian aromatic market, but chemical demand is expected to weaken. For construction products, the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PVC had limited impact. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Agricultural Products**: The USDA's November report showed a decrease in the US new - crop soybean's yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, since the market had already priced in the positive news, soybean prices fell after the report. Soybean meal may follow the decline, and the edible oil and oilseed sector may oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with an average increase of around 3.26% - 3.45%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 2,231.72 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase [34]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a - 0.58% return, the soybean meal ETF had a 0.99% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had an 8.94% return [34]. - **Overall Commodity ETFs**: The total scale of commodity ETFs was 2,343.35 billion yuan, with a 2.52% increase. Trading volume also increased significantly by 93.95% [34].

Macroeconomic Overview - October fundamentals continued to weaken, with real growth indicators showing significant decline, while price indicators remained supported by base effects and rebounds[2] - New home sales and investment in real estate further weakened, with infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates declining more sharply[2] - Social financing in October was 815 billion CNY, significantly below the expected 1,528.4 billion CNY and the previous value of 3,529.6 billion CNY[9] - New credit in October was 220 billion CNY, compared to an expected 460 billion CNY and a previous value of 1,290 billion CNY[9] Economic Data Analysis - Industrial value added in October grew by 4.9%, below the expected 5.5% and previous 6.5%[15] - Retail sales in October increased by 2.9%, slightly above the expected 2.7% but below the previous 3%[15] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 1.7%, worse than the expected decline of 0.7%[15] - Real estate development investment fell by 14.7% year-on-year, slightly worse than the expected decline of 14.5%[15] Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a volume decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.40%[8] - Bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.1 basis points[8] - The U.S. stock market initially rose but later fell, with the Dow Jones up by 0.34% and the S&P 500 up by 0.08% before declining[8] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.26%, while the offshore RMB appreciated by 251 basis points against the dollar[8]

市场瞬息万变，顺势而为，才是王道，趋势来了就是干，不要逆势抄底，免得难受煎熬。交易切记不要 意气用事，市场专治各种不服，所以一定不要扛单，相信很多人都深有体会，越抗越慌，浮亏不断放 大，搞的吃不好睡不好，还白白错过很多机会，如果你也有这些烦恼，那不妨跟上高铭鑫的节奏来试 试，看看能否让你豁然开朗。如果你需要帮助，本人金晟富会一直在这儿，但如果你连手都不伸，我又 怎么能帮到你呢？ 换资前言： 近期有哪些消息面影响黄金原油走势？后市黄金多空该如何研判？ 周一（11月17日）现货黄金延续前两个交易日跌势，下跌约0.53%至每盎司4063美元附近。尽管黄金上 周五下跌逾2%，但成功从低点反弹，上周仍录得2%的涨幅，实现三周来首次周度上涨。这一表现彰显 了其非凡韧性——即便在政府停摆结束与贸易休战至少两项利空因素消散的背景下。上周五的下跌看似 终于击穿了黄金的韧性防线，但从周线表现来看其抗跌性依然稳固，关键技术位也未被突破。然而本 周，黄金会面临真正的压力考验、从而令前景偏向看跌吗？ 尽管周五将发布的全球PMI数据等国际宏观指标可能通过美元渠道间接影响金价，但市场焦点将完全聚 焦于美国经济。随着美国政府重启，虽然部分因 ...

与碳酸锂增仓大涨形成鲜明对比的是，贵金属17日减仓回落。截至收盘时，沪银以4.08%的跌幅领跌商品市场，沪金也收跌3.09%，高居跌幅排行第二。美 联储12月降息预期降温，加速了贵金属市场多头资金的撤离。盘面上看，伴随着期价回落，沪金当前主力2512合约日减仓近1.2万手，资金净流出近44亿 元；沪银当前主力2602合约日减仓超2300手，资金净流出8亿元。分析来看，上周多位美联储官员的讲话总体氛围偏"鹰"，从而导致市场对美联储12月降息 的预期骤降至五成以下的水平，这对于无息资产的贵金属而言利空明显。不过，分析机构也表示，虽然目前政策信号混乱令贵金属短期波动加剧，但支撑贵 金属长期涨势的主要逻辑——央行购金、对冲不确定性的配置需求和美元信用弱化等因素并未实质性改变，这使得贵金属长期趋势不改。但短期内，伴随着 美国一系列重要经济数据将陆续恢复发布，或加大金银价格的高位波动。 新华财经北京11月17日电（吴郑思、郭洲洋） 周一（11月17日），国内商品市场整体偏弱震荡，品种分化显著。截至下午收盘时，中证商品期货价格指数 收报1479.10点，较前一交易日下跌13.49点，跌幅0.90%；中证商品期货指数收报20 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices in Shanghai opened lower and continued to decline, closing down by 0.91% due to weakened macroeconomic sentiment and cooling expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent hawkish statements from some Federal Reserve officials have contributed to a decline in interest rate cut expectations for December, leading to weakened risk appetite in the market [1] - Precious metals have seen significant corrections, and non-ferrous metals are generally softening as a result of the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain around -40 USD per dry ton, indicating a tight supply situation that is unlikely to improve significantly [1] - Despite high copper prices, social inventory depletion has been limited, and the recent drop in copper prices has led to an expansion of spot premiums [1] - Feedback from downstream sectors indicates some improvement in consumption performance, but the extent and sustainability of this improvement remain uncertain [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The financial reports from mining companies suggest limited adjustments in copper mine increments, maintaining the logic of raw material tightness [1] - The smelting sector is expected to see a continued month-on-month decline in production [1] - Import and export dynamics indicate a potential slight decrease in arrivals in November, while domestic exports may continue [1] - The market outlook suggests a high-level fluctuation in copper prices in the short term, with no significant downward pressure anticipated [1]

Market Overview - The bond market showed a strong consolidation on November 17, with all major government bond futures closing higher, and interbank bond yields declining by approximately 0.5-1 basis points [1][2] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan in the open market, with funding rates collectively rising due to tax period disturbances [1][6] Bond Futures Performance - The 30-year main contract rose by 0.33% to 116.45, the 10-year main contract increased by 0.09% to 108.485, the 5-year main contract went up by 0.05% to 105.905, and the 2-year main contract gained 0.03% to 102.48 [2] Yield Movements - Major interbank bond yields generally declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling by 0.35 basis points to 1.8015%, and the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 1 basis point to 2.1385% [2] International Bond Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.71 basis points to 4.146% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields generally increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 3 basis points to 1.73% [4] - In the Eurozone, 10-year bond yields also saw increases, with French yields up by 4.3 basis points to 3.457% [4] Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.3849% for 1.074 years, 1.6197% for 3 years, and 1.7076% for 5 years, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.6, 7.53, and 1.24 respectively [5] Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation with a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 163.1 billion yuan after accounting for maturing repos [6] Institutional Insights - Institutions suggest that the current market conditions may lead to continued downward pressure on yields due to insufficient financing demand and ongoing asset scarcity, with a focus on the allocation opportunities towards the end of the year and early next year [1][7] - The tightening supply of convertible bonds has led to increased valuations, with recommendations for investors to focus on mid-to-large cap, relatively low-priced securities while taking profits on high-priced, overvalued stocks [8]

近期，市场对美联储降息的预期出现显著逆转。据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率已跌破 50%，降至44.4%，而维持当前利率不变的概率则升至55.6%。展望至明年1月，市场预计累计降息25个基点的概率为48.6%，维 持利率不变的概率为34.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率仅为16.7%。这一变化显示，交易员正在重新评估美联储的货币政策路 径。 关联市场：金价短期承压于强势美元与高利率预期 美联储降息预期的推迟，对国际金价形成了明显的短期压力。较高的利率环境通常将提振美元并增加持有黄金等非生息资产的 机会成本，令金价承压。近期，国际金价在美元走强的利率预期下震荡偏弱。市场分析认为，除非后续经济数据显著恶化，再 次点燃市场的避险与降息预期，否则金价短期内恐难摆脱当前的高利率压制格局。 百利好（Plotio）是一家专注于为全球投资者提供在线交易服务的品牌。百利好注册于巴哈马，受巴哈马证券委员会（SCB）监 管（编号：SIA-F212），持有香港黄金交易所AA牌照 ，是一家正规的交易平台。 有分析指出，这些言论集中反映了美联储内部对美国通胀进展可能放缓甚至停滞的担忧，这为年底再次降息的 ...

| 贵金属日评20251117: 多位美联储官员放鹰使贵金属价格承压 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-10 | 收盘价 | 953. 20 | 17.22 | 961. 22 | 935. 98 | -8. 02 | | | | | 成交量 | 307687.00 | 307850.00 | 320688.00 | -163.00 | -13,001.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 113597.00 | 124239.00 | 136657.00 | -23, 060. 00 | -10. 642. 00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 90426.00 | 89616.00 | 0. 00 | 810. 00 | 90426.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘价 | 947. ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 美联储降息预期降温，有色板块冲高回落 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-11-17 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | ...