Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the marginal recovery of the US economy, highlighting improvements in GDP growth, employment stability, inflation pressures, and market expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][3]. Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNOW model predicts a Q3 GDP growth rate of 2.5%, with private consumption growth at 2.0% and private investment growth at 2.5%, indicating a recovery from Q2's low [2]. - Initial jobless claims remain low at 226,000, while continuing claims are at 1.974 million, suggesting a stable employment market with limited upward pressure on the unemployment rate [2]. - Service consumption growth is forecasted at 1.9% for Q3, up from 1.4% in Q2, potentially reversing the trend of cooling service inflation [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - Market sentiment is influenced by Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve, with expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut in September and 2-3 cuts anticipated for the year [2][3]. - The bond market reflects these expectations, with US Treasury yields remaining low and limited further downside anticipated due to already priced-in rate cuts [3]. Group 3: Currency and Commodity Outlook - The US dollar is expected to remain stable, with limited downside as the market has largely priced in the September rate cut [5]. - Gold prices are influenced by potential tariffs on gold bars, leading to a significant price spread between New York and London gold [6]. Group 4: China's Economic Performance - China's exports grew by 7.2% year-on-year in July, with imports rising by 4.1%, indicating better-than-expected trade performance [8]. - Domestic real estate transactions are down 25.1% year-on-year, with second-hand home prices declining, reflecting ongoing pressure in the housing market [9]. Group 5: Policy Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and other departments issued guidelines to support new industrialization through financial services, focusing on innovation and supply chain resilience [10][11]. - The "anti-involution" policy aims to direct financial resources towards technological innovation and brand upgrades, while monitoring credit flows to prevent risks [11]. Group 6: Market Strategy - The market shows a steady recovery in risk appetite, with both stock and bond markets experiencing slight upward movements [12]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended for equities, focusing on dividend-paying sectors and technology, while maintaining a cautious approach to long-duration bonds [14].

证券研究报告 海外策略周报： 市场继续交易降息预期 证券分析师 魏 伟 投资咨询资格编号：S1060513060001 、BOT313 陈 骁 投资咨询资格编号：S1060516070001 、BWH863 郝博韬 投资咨询资格编号：S1060521110001 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2025 年 8 月11 日 1 ※ 核心观点 2 • 海外方面，本周市场继续交易降息预期，美股上涨、美元下跌、美债收益率低位震荡后略有反弹。本周降息预期持续发酵，美国 关税2.0落地，全球主要股指多数收涨。本周MSCI全球股指上涨2.52%，标普500、纳指分别上涨2.43%、3.87%；10年期、2年期 美债收益率分别上涨4bp、7bp至4.27%、3.76%；美元指数下跌0.43%至98.3；COMEX黄金、ICE布油分别上涨1.24%、下跌 4.60%。港股方面，国内"反内卷"政策延续，恒生指数继续上涨。国内方面，工信部等八部门发布《机械工业数字化转型实施方 案》，推动AI与智能制造深度融合；央行、工信部等七部门联合印发《关于金融支持新型工业化的指导意见》，明确支持重点行 业防止"内卷式"竞争，推动产业合理布局。本周 ...

美国PMI不及预期，降息预期升温；国内物价低位回暖，出口韧性。风险偏好高位下，对A股后续行情 保持乐观，看好科技成长方向。 海外方面，7月美国ISM 口径PMI不及预期，市场延续就业数据巨震后的降息预期发酵态势：原油下 跌，黄金上涨，美元偏弱，美债利率小幅反弹，全球股市普遍上涨。接下来重点关注中美关税是否继续 延期以及美国7月通胀情况。 国内方面，7月价格数据有所回暖，CPI与核心CPI超预期，PPI同比降幅仍在3.6%，但环比边际好转， 低基数与反内卷共振，未来PPI有望回升。资本市场方面，两融继续增长，A股风险偏好维持高位，国 债收益率曲线小幅下移，股债均上涨。 市场策略方面，债券方面，上周(8月4日-8日)债券市场震荡。增值税新规下的首批加税地方债落地，发 行结果好于预期。央行前置操作MDS逆回购表明呵护态度延续，但资金利率较难突破前低。向后 看，"反内卷"政策对价格的影响难以短期证伪，而基本面短期也不会非线性走弱，债市情绪仍受商品价 格扰动。关注本周中美关税是否延期和俄美谈判结果带来的交易性机会。资金面宽松仍具有确定性，建 议逢调整适度配置，反向操作，及时止盈，做好流动性管理。重视高票息资产的价值。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 5.78%, ranking second among all primary industries, with precious metals leading at 8.04% [14][1] - The report highlights the impact of U.S. interest rate cut expectations on industrial metal prices, leading to a broad price increase across the sector [29][28] - The ongoing purchase of gold by the People's Bank of China for nine consecutive months is noted as a significant factor supporting gold prices [49][52] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming by 3.67 percentage points [14] - All sub-sectors within non-ferrous metals experienced gains, with precious metals, new materials, industrial metals, small metals, and energy metals increasing by 8.04%, 6.84%, 5.79%, 5.35%, and 3.94% respectively [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices are under short-term pressure due to increased inventories domestically and internationally, with LME copper at $9,768/ton and SHFE copper at ¥78,490/ton [33][2] - **Aluminum**: Prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with LME aluminum at $2,615/ton and SHFE aluminum at ¥20,680/ton, expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [37][3] - **Zinc**: Prices increased with LME zinc at $2,834/ton and SHFE zinc at ¥22,515/ton, despite mixed inventory changes [43][4] - **Tin**: Prices rose to $33,605/ton for LME tin and ¥267,780/ton for SHFE tin, supported by tight supply conditions [47][5] Precious Metals - **Gold**: The report notes a closing price of $3,458.20/oz for COMEX gold and ¥787.80/g for SHFE gold, with a bullish outlook due to ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of interest rate cuts [49][52]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Federal Reserve's recent dovish stance has created an environment where gold prices are likely to rise and are difficult to decline [1] - The potential imposition of tariffs on gold bars led to a significant increase in COMEX gold prices, although subsequent clarification from the White House negated this impact [2] - The combination of weakening employment data, dovish Fed policies, and anticipated inflation is expected to support an upward trend in gold prices [2] Group 2: Copper Market Analysis - Previous market concerns regarding copper included the reversal of logistics post-tariff, weakening demand due to the end of solar panel installations, and strong economic data suppressing rate cut expectations [3] - These concerns are gradually being disproven, as U.S. copper prices remain stable and inventory levels have not significantly increased [3] - The upcoming September is expected to see improved supply-demand dynamics, with potential downward pressure on copper production due to maintenance and a return to peak demand [3]

| 石原則 | 贵金属日评20250811: 美俄计划换领土达成俄乌停火协议,关注周二美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-07 | 收盘价 | 2. 78 | 787.80 | 781. 42 | 6. 38 | 785.02 | | | | | 成交重 | 251828.00 | 271828.00 | 64.747.00 | -20,000.00 | 187081.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | 220321.00 | 217630.00 | 217696.00 | 2.691.00 | 2, 625. 00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 0. 00 | 156.00 | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 35889.00 | 上海黄金 | 收盘 ...

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Precious Metals Weekly Report: Rising Expectations of Interest Rate Cuts Provide Support for Prices" [1] Report Date - August 11, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The continuous weakening of US economic data has led to an increase in expectations of an interest rate cut in September, causing precious metal prices to fluctuate strongly. The implementation of the new round of US tariffs, the poor performance of July's non - farm payroll data, and the downward revision of May and June data have reversed the market's expectations of employment market resilience. Although the Fed's interest rate - setting meeting was hawkish, market concerns about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical outlook are expected to support precious metal prices. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data released on Tuesday [4][7][8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Gold: US economic data weakened continuously, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased. As of last Friday, the price of US gold was reported at $3458 per ounce, up 1.2% for the week. The upper resistance level is $3510, and the lower support level is $3390 [4] - Silver: US economic data weakened continuously, the expectation of an interest rate cut in September increased, and silver inventories decreased during the week. As of last Friday, the price of US silver rebounded, with a weekly increase of 3.8%, reported at $38.51 per ounce. The lower support level is $37, and the upper resistance level is $39.7 [7] 2. Weekly View - New US tariffs took effect, July's non - farm payroll data was far below expectations, and data for May and June were significantly revised downwards, reversing the market's expectations of employment market resilience and increasing the market's expectation of an interest rate cut in September. The results of trade negotiations between the US and multiple countries were announced, and the tariff increase was generally lower than market expectations, increasing the market's optimistic expectation of a trade agreement between the US and Europe. Although the market expects an interest rate cut in September, Powell said at the interest - rate meeting that the conditions for a rate cut had not been met, and the meeting result was hawkish. Trump nominated a Fed governor. With the US tariff policy basically in place, the market is concerned about the US fiscal situation and geopolitical prospects, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to the US July CPI inflation data [8] 3. Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - Not summarized in text form, mainly presented in charts including the US dollar index, real interest rates, currency exchange rates, US Treasury yields, inflation expectations, Fed balance sheet size, and WTI crude oil futures prices [12][14][16] 4. Important Economic Data of the Week - US July ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, expected to be 51.5, and the previous value was 50.8 - The revised monthly rate of US durable goods orders in June was - 9.4% [19] 5. Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week rose to the highest level in a month. As of the week ending August 2, the number of initial jobless claims increased by 7000 to 226,000, higher than the economist's forecast of 221,000. The number of continued jobless claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest since November 2021 - Trump said he would nominate White House Council of Economic Advisers Chairman Milan to temporarily serve as a Fed governor to fill the vacancy left by Kugler's unexpected resignation [21] 6. Inventory - Gold: COMEX inventory decreased by 4062.44 kg to 1,200,128.17 kg, and SHFE inventory increased by 300 kg to 36,045 kg - Silver: COMEX inventory decreased by 5260.36 kg to 15,753,687.21 kg, and SHFE inventory decreased by 25,570 kg to 1,158,387 kg [10] 7. Fund Holdings - As of August 5, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 230,217 contracts, an increase of 13,029 contracts from last week - As of August 5, the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 48,500 contracts, a decrease of 8719 contracts from last week [10] 8. Key Points to Watch This Week - August 12 (Tuesday), 20:30: US July CPI annual rate unadjusted - August 14 (Thursday), 20:30: US July PPI annual rate - August 15 (Thursday), 20:30: US July retail sales annual rate; 22:00: US August preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence index [32]

Group 1: US Market Focus - The significant downward revision of non-farm payrolls has raised concerns about the health of the US job market, indicating a cooling trend in employment and a weakening economy, though not yet at recession levels [11][15][19] - Major technology stocks remain the most reliable investments, with Dell Technologies and Tianhong Technology highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the AI sector [20][24] - The upcoming August non-farm payroll data is critical, as a three-month average of new jobs below 100,000 could lead to a high probability of a rate cut in September [19][23] Group 2: South Korean Market Focus - The Bank of Korea may pause interest rate cuts despite meeting inflation targets, as the overall inflation rate slightly decreased to 2.1% in July, aligning with market expectations [31][35] - A disappointing preliminary tax reform proposal has created pressure on the stock market, with concerns over increased taxes on dividends and corporate income [36][38] - The shipbuilding industry is expected to benefit from US-Korea agreements and increased demand for naval vessels, with Hyundai Heavy Industries identified as a key player in this sector [41][43] Group 3: Australian Market Focus - The Reserve Bank of Australia is predicted to cut interest rates twice more this year, with retail sales showing a strong recovery, growing by 1.2% in June [50][53] - Overall inflation in Australia remains moderate, with the June inflation rate at 1.9%, suggesting limited pressure on monetary policy [56] - There is optimism in sectors such as materials, technology, and healthcare, with specific companies like Northern Star and Xero being highlighted for their growth potential [57]

2025年7月29日，华盛顿特区笼罩在夜幕下，唯有美联储大楼灯火通明，宛如金融风暴中孤悬海上的一座灯塔。大楼内，美 联储主席鲍威尔眉头紧锁，凝视着桌上堆积如山的报告，额头深陷的皱纹在灯光下愈发清晰可见。37万亿美元的国债利息 支出已吞噬了联邦税收的四分之一，这把达摩克利斯之剑悬在头顶，随时可能落下。 与此同时，特朗普在"真实社交"平台 上发出的"立即降息300个基点"的咆哮，正如同飓风般席卷全球金融市场，引发一场关乎美元命运的激烈搏斗。 一、美元霸权的裂痕：全球风暴来袭 8月2日清晨，一条非农就业数据的消息如同惊雷般炸响，震醒了纽约交易员詹姆斯。7月新增就业仅7.3万人，远低于预期的 10.4万人；更令人震惊的是，5月和6月数据合计下修25.8万人，创下自疫情初期以来最大两月降幅。失业率升至4.2%，为 2021年11月以来最高水平；劳动参与率连续第三个月下滑至62.2%，在劳动力供给缩减的情况下失业率仍在上升，意味着就 业市场的疲软程度远超表面数据。时薪数据也传递出复杂信号：7月非农私人部门时薪环比增速升至0.3%，同比增速升至 3.9%，核心服务通胀压力升温；但商品生产行业薪资环比增速却回落至0.1%，凸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund has shown a recent decline but has experienced a significant increase over the past week, reflecting a volatile market influenced by various economic factors [2]. Group 1: Fund Performance - As of August 11, 2025, the gold ETF fund (159937) decreased by 0.76%, with a latest price of 7.49 yuan. However, it has increased by 2.11% over the past week as of August 8, 2025 [2]. - The fund's net inflow reached 60.6554 million yuan recently, with a total of 276 million yuan in net inflows over the past five trading days, averaging 55.2025 million yuan per day [3]. - The fund's net asset value has increased by 70.70% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [3]. Group 2: Market Influences - Recent market conditions have been influenced by rising interest rate expectations, changes in tariffs, and continued central bank gold purchases, pushing gold prices above $3,500 per ounce [2]. - The price of gold futures reached a historical high of $3,534.1 per ounce, while the London spot gold price has risen by 3.31% since August [2]. Group 3: Risk and Return Metrics - The fund has a maximum monthly return of 10.62% since inception, with a longest consecutive monthly gain of six months and a total gain of 16.53% [3]. - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.35, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3]. - The fund's management fee is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10% [3]. Group 4: Tracking Accuracy - The gold ETF fund has a tracking error of 0.002% over the past three months, indicating high tracking precision compared to similar funds [4].