Core Viewpoint - The glass and soda ash markets are experiencing fluctuations due to inventory adjustments and varying demand, with expectations of continued low-price volatility in the near term [1] Glass Market Summary - The glass market is seeing strong production and sales driven by midstream inventory replenishment, leading to a downward trend in prices [1] - In March, the main glass futures contract closed at 1181 RMB/ton, down 67 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.37% for the month [1] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market increased slightly to 1268 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week rise of 3.27 RMB/ton [1] - The production capacity utilization rate for float glass was 78.99%, with a total output of 1.1088 million tons [1] - Total inventory for float glass sample enterprises decreased by 1.87% to 65.757 million heavy boxes [1] Soda Ash Market Summary - The soda ash market is witnessing a recovery in production and inventory levels as companies resume operations after maintenance [1] - In March, the main soda ash futures contract closed at 1373 RMB/ton, down 196 RMB/ton, a decrease of 12.49% for the month [1] - The production of soda ash reached 713,000 tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 3.3% [1] - Total inventory for soda ash manufacturers rose by 4.38% to 1.7014 million tons [1] Market Strategies - The strategy for the glass market is to maintain a volatile trading range, while the strategy for soda ash is to lean towards a weaker volatility [1] - There are no cross-variety or cross-period strategies currently in place [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On April 2, polysilicon showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, with the main contract 2506 closing at 43,680 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 0.41%, and the position increasing by 1,459 lots to 28,096 lots. The SMM N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount to the main contract widened to 1,680 yuan/ton. Industrial silicon showed a volatile and slightly weaker trend, with the main contract 2505 closing at 9,760 yuan/ton, an intraday decrease of 0.2%, and the position decreasing by 17,564 lots to 292,000 lots. The Baichuan industrial silicon spot reference price was 10,680 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable product 553 dropped to 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. There were news of joint production cuts in the industry. Before the Tomb-Sweeping Festival, some short positions in industrial silicon began to exit, and the short-term futures market showed signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing. The inventory destocking in the component segment was slow, suppressing the upward transmission elasticity of demand, and the high inventory restricted the rebound space. Under the structural mismatch pressure between short-term demand recovery and medium-term supply increase, the spread between near and far months of polysilicon still had room to widen. After the festival, continue to pay attention to the delivery progress and downstream production scheduling rhythm. During the festival, it is recommended to control positions and hold light positions [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Polysilicon was volatile and slightly stronger on April 2, while industrial silicon was volatile and slightly weaker. There were joint production cut news in the industry, and short-term industrial silicon futures showed signs of stabilizing. The slow inventory destocking in the component segment restricted demand transmission, and the polysilicon spread had room to widen. Attention should be paid to delivery and production scheduling after the festival, and positions should be controlled during the festival [2] Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased by 20 yuan/ton to 9,800 yuan/ton, and the near-month contract increased by 70 yuan/ton to 9,785 yuan/ton. Most spot prices remained stable, with the lowest deliverable product 553 at 9,650 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 135 yuan/ton. The industrial silicon warehouse receipt was 69,710 tons, and the total inventory increased by 2,345 tons to 348,955 tons [4] - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement price of the main and near-month contracts increased by 120 yuan/ton to 43,680 yuan/ton. The N-type polysilicon material price was 42,000 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 1,680 yuan/ton [4] - **Organosilicon**: The DMC price in the East China market was 14,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The price of dimethyl silicone oil decreased by 1,200 yuan/ton to 14,800 yuan/ton [4] - **Downstream Products**: The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and photovoltaic modules remained unchanged [4] Chart Analysis Industrial Silicon and Cost-side Prices - Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [6][7] Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organosilicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14] Inventory - Charts present the industrial silicon futures inventory, factory warehouse inventory, weekly industry inventory, weekly inventory changes, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][20] Cost and Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost and profit of industrial silicon, aluminum alloy processing industry profit, DMC cost and profit, and polysilicon cost and profit [25][26]

| 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 市场担忧巴西天气，原糖短期震荡整理 商品研究 报告内容摘要: [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-03 [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已接近尾声，北方的甜菜糖厂已全部停产， 而南方的甘蔗糖厂则陆续进入榨糖阶段。根据中国糖业协会的统计，截至 2025 年 2 月底，全国累计食糖产量达到 972 万吨，同比增加 177 万吨；累 计销售糖量为 475 万吨，同比增加 97 万吨；销售进度为 48.9%，较去年同 期加快了 1.4 个百分点。3 月，广西、云南等地迎来了持续降雨，旱情得到 缓解，有利于甘蔗的生长，但后续仍需关注天气变化。在国际市场方面，巴 西的食糖产量较上年有所下降，印度的产量也未达到预期，导致国际市场的 供需缺口进一步扩大。 软商品日报 走 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Short fiber and bottle chip markets are both affected by tariff implementation and follow the raw materials market with a weak trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short Fiber**: - Futures prices: short fiber 2504 decreased by 6628 to 0, short fiber 2505 decreased by 32 to 6630, and short fiber 2506 increased by 34 to 6676 [1]. - Spread: PF04 - 05 changed by -6.596 to -6.630, PF05 - 06 changed by -66 to -46, and PF basis increased by 32 to 135 [1]. - Positions and trading volume: short fiber positions increased by 500 to 320929, and trading volume decreased by 5699 to 207258 [1]. - Spot price and sales rate: short fiber spot price in East China remained at 6.765, and the sales - to - production ratio decreased by 22% to 91% [1]. - **Bottle Chip**: - Futures prices: bottle chip 2505 decreased by 6 to 6082, bottle chip 2506 decreased by 6 to 6126, and bottle chip 2509 decreased by 6 to 6168 [1]. - Spread: PR05 - 06 remained at -44, PR05 - 09 remained at -42, and PR main contract basis decreased by 9 to -17 [1]. - Positions and trading volume: bottle chip positions decreased by 981 to 20476, and trading volume decreased by 5946 to 12139 [1]. - Spot price: bottle chip spot price in East China decreased by 15 to 6065, and in South China decreased by 10 to 6100 [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short Fiber**: Direct - spun polyester staple fiber futures fluctuated weakly, market sentiment declined. Spot factory quotes were stable, with preferential negotiations for transactions. The futures - spot basis was weakly stable. Transaction volume decreased, and the average sales - to - production ratio was 91% [1]. - **Bottle Chip**: Upstream polyester raw materials rose slightly, polyester bottle chip factory quotes were mostly stable with some slight downward adjustments. Market transactions were light, mainly for rigid demand replenishment, and most factories had prices but few transactions. Orders from April to May were transacted at 6020 - 6080 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly higher at around 6160 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short fiber and bottle chip is -1, indicating a weak trend on the day of the report for the main contract futures price fluctuations [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - No core view explicitly stated in the provided content Group 3: Summary of Glass Price and Contract Information - On April 1, 2025, the price of 5mm large - plate glass from Shahe Anquan was 1257.0, with no weekly or daily change; FG09 contract was 1237.0, a weekly decrease of 52.0 and a daily increase of 14.0 [2] - Shahe Great Wall's 5mm large - plate glass was 1211.0 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 22.0 and a daily increase of 13.0; FG05 contract was 1235.0, a weekly decrease of 25.0 and a daily increase of 54.0 [2] - The low - price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe was 1211.0 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 22.0 and a daily increase of 30.0; FG 5 - 9 spread was - 2.0, a weekly increase of 27.0 and a daily increase of 40.0 [2] - Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price remained 1160.0 from March 25 to April 1; 05 Hebei basis was - 24.0 on April 1, a weekly increase of 3.0 and a daily decrease of 24.0 [2] - The low - price of large - plate glass in Hubei was 1120.0 on April 1, a weekly increase of 20.0 and a daily increase of 10.0; 05 Hubei basis was - 115.0, a weekly increase of 45.0 and a daily decrease of 44.0 [2] - The low - price of 5mm large - plate glass in South China remained 1380.0 from March 25 to April 1 [2] - Shandong Jurun's 5mm large - plate glass price remained 1260.0 from March 25 to April 1 [2] Profit and Basis Information - North China coal - fired profit was 287.8 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 12.9 and a daily increase of 27.9; North China coal - fired cost was 923.2, a weekly decrease of 9.1 and a daily increase of 2.1 [2] - South China natural gas profit was - 174.3 on April 1, a weekly increase of 10.5 and no daily change; North China natural gas profit was - 177.8, a weekly decrease of 13.6 and a daily increase of 27.9 [2] - 09FG futures natural gas profit was - 169.0 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 42.1 and a daily increase of 11.5; 05FG futures natural gas profit was - 161.7, a weekly decrease of 14.3 and a daily increase of 50.8 [2] Spot and Sales Information - Spot: Shahe traders' prices increased to around 1210, with the 05 contract at around par; Hubei factories' low - price was around 1130, with fair sales and some manufacturers raising prices; Hubei's old 05 contract basis was between - 100 and - 140, with reported average sales [2] - Sales: Shahe's sales rate was 69, Hubei's was 112, East China's was 81, and South China's was 96 [2] Group 4: Summary of Soda Ash Contract and Spot Price Information - On April 1, 2025, the SA05 contract price of Shahe heavy soda ash was 1380.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily increase of 10.0; the SA01 contract price of Central China heavy soda ash was 1350.0, a weekly decrease of 40.0 and no daily change; the SA09 contract price of South China heavy soda ash was 1570.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and no daily change [2] - SA05 Shahe basis of Qinghai heavy soda ash was 1080.0 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and no daily change; SA month - spread 05 - 09 was - 44.0, a weekly decrease of 4.0 and a daily increase of 3.0 [2] Profit and Cost Information - North China ammonia - soda process profit was - 152.9 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 36.7 and a daily increase of 10.0; North China combined - soda process profit was - 195.2, a weekly decrease of 24.4 and a daily increase of 4.7 [2] - North China ammonia - soda process cost was 1502.9 on April 1, a weekly decrease of 3.3 and no daily change [2] Spot and Industry Information - Spot: The spot price of heavy soda ash at Hebei delivery warehouses was around 1350, Shahe warehouses was around 1380, and the terminal delivery price was around 1390; downstream restocking was nearly finished [2] - Industry: Yuanxing's production load increased, Jinshan restarted, and factory inventories accumulated [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to the deterioration of the international trade environment, lack of domestic macro - level support, and weak overall industrial performance [2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The short - term price is expected to be firm, and the medium - term price is under pressure due to the expected Brazilian harvest [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has limited room for further decline as it has reached the support level, but there is no obvious upward driving force currently [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,605 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,864 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - demand in Pakistan**: In the 2025/26 season, the sown area is expected to increase by about 5% to 2.1 million hectares, and the total output is expected to increase by 5.7% to about 1.2 million tons. Import demand may decrease by 10.8% to 1.07 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by about 1% to 2.29 million tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 470,000 tons, down about 6.6% [1] Market Analysis - **International**: Last week, the main contract of US cotton rebounded due to reduced planting area intentions and a weaker US dollar, but the significant decline in export contract volume pressured further price increases. The short - term supply is loose, and demand may be further restricted by Sino - US trade frictions [1] - **Domestic**: In the 24/25 season, there was an unexpected increase in production in China, and the commercial inventory is at a historically high level. In the 25/26 season, the cotton planting area is expected to increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly in the recent two weeks but is still weak compared to the peak season [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - **Production in India**: As of March 31, 2025, in the 2024 - 25 season, 113 sugar mills were still operating, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 265.326 million tons and a sugar production of 24.85 million tons. In the same period of the previous season, 204 mills were operating, with a cane crushing volume of 298.104 million tons and a sugar production of 30.25 million tons [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Although there are disputes over India's production, the impact has been mostly reflected in the market. Brazil has had less rainfall since February, but the actual impact of the drought is yet to be evaluated. The production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase strongly in the 25/26 season [4] - **Zheng Sugar**: Driven by the strong rebound of the external market, Zheng sugar once exceeded the previous high. Although the domestic production is increasing this season, the short - term import of sugar is limited, and the control policy of syrup and premixed powder is tightened. The domestic sugar price is expected to be firm in the short term [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract was 5,638 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [6] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - **Market Price Trend**: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong decreased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Some overseas pulp mills had maintenance in the first quarter, and the supply was expected to decrease, leading to continued increases in the US dollar quotes from February to March. However, the global shipment volume remained high, and the domestic pulp imports increased significantly from January to February, with a high expected arrival volume in March [7] - **Demand**: European demand did not improve significantly, and the European wood pulp port inventory remained at a historical high. The domestic downstream peak season was lackluster, and paper mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. There were concerns about the digestion of high - level port inventories [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment strategy for the pig industry is cautiously bearish, and for the egg industry, it is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Core Views - The pig market is in a state of slight supply surplus, with slow demand recovery and difficulty in digesting production capacity. Short - term pig prices are expected to remain firm, while long - term supply will be loose. The upcoming Tomb - Sweeping Festival may bring limited consumption growth [2] - The egg market is in a consumption off - season, with weak demand. The short - term supply - demand pattern of oversupply is hard to change. Egg spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level this week, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [4][5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pig 2505 contract yesterday was 13,240 yuan/ton, a change of - 5.00 yuan/ton (- 0.04%) from the previous trading day. Spot: The prices of external ternary pigs in Henan, Jiangsu, and Sichuan were 14.80 yuan/kg, 14.97 yuan/kg, and 14.45 yuan/kg respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.08 yuan/kg, - 0.03 yuan/kg, and 0.00 yuan/kg. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" on March 31 was 119.48, up 0.21 points from last Friday. The national average wholesale price of pork was 20.85 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from last Friday [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Group slaughter this week was stable compared to last week, and the monthly slaughter volume was slightly lower, with spot prices under pressure. The market is in a state of slight supply surplus, and there are few changes in breeding data compared to last week. Demand: Slaughter growth is relatively slow, and the second - fattening demand is small. The Tomb - Sweeping Festival may bring limited consumption growth [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2505 contract yesterday was 2,962 yuan/500 kg, unchanged from the previous trading day. Spot: Egg prices in Liaoning, Shandong, and Hebei were 2.91 yuan/jin, 3.15 yuan/jin, and 2.80 yuan/jin respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.07, 0.00, and 0.00. On April 1, the national production - link inventory was 1.90 days, up 0.5 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 2.21 days, up 0.05 days [3] Market Analysis - Demand is in the off - season, with each link purchasing as needed. The Tomb - Sweeping Festival has limited impact on demand, and traders are cautious due to concerns about egg storage as temperatures rise. The short - term supply - demand pattern of oversupply is hard to change [4] Strategy - Neutral [6]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及投机支撑阻力 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆粕 | 蓄势趋弱 | 巴西大豆产量展望基本维持稳定。阿根廷方面，未来十五天降雨有再度降雨不足的 | | | | 可能。4 月美国将对中国加征 10%关税，中国发起反制，对美豆加征 10%的关税。 | | | | 美豆贸易争端暂告一段落。美豆种植意向面积公布结果同比环比调减，但美豆期末 | | | | 库存高于预期。国内市场方面，本周国内港口及大豆、豆粕库存环比下降。但 4 月 | | | | 国内大豆进口开始放量，4-6 月月均进口 1000 万吨以上。由于美豆地区未来十五天 | | | | 降雨充沛，短期豆粕缺乏更多利多驱动，警惕短线整理甚至调整风险。近月合约需 | | | | 要注意大豆 4 月进口到港逐步放量的预期下，期现回归的走弱风险。主力【2780， | | | | 2860】 | | | | 美对加籽加征关税利空加籽下跌。国内市场本周沿海油厂菜籽及菜粕库存环比下 | | | | 降，压力边际改善。中国对加拿大菜粕菜油加征 100%关税，但未包含菜籽，且可 | | 菜粕 | 短线下跌 | 交割菜粕途 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - PVC is expected to experience low - level, weak oscillations due to factors such as weak demand, over - capacity, and high inventory. The price is likely to face pressure around 5200 yuan/ton [2]. - For caustic soda, the upward drive of the futures market is insufficient, but the downward movement is also cautious. Attention should be paid to factors like inventory and alumina production [3]. - Urea prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction. Although supply remains abundant, the smooth inventory reduction process drives up the average price [4][6]. - Methanol prices are expected to move within a range of 2500 - 2650 yuan/ton, with both domestic and port inventories decreasing, but the high price has limited downstream acceptance [7]. Summary by Product PVC - **Prices**: On April 1, the PVC main 05 - contract closed at 5099 yuan/ton (+20), with different market prices in different regions [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate market and export restrictions. Supply is under pressure with new investment plans and high - level caustic soda production. Currently, maintenance is limited, and export is stable through price cuts [2]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level, with attention on new production, spring maintenance, downstream resumption, and policies [2]. Caustic Soda - **Prices**: On April 1, the caustic soda main SH05 - contract closed at 2515 yuan/ton (+3), and there were price adjustments in the Shandong market [3]. - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2025, the inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [3]. - **Outlook**: The upward drive is limited, but the downward movement is cautious. Attention should be paid to factors such as inventory and alumina production [3]. Urea - **Prices**: The main contract rose 3.27% to close at 1929 yuan/ton, with different spot prices in different regions [4]. - **Supply**: The national urea operating rate was 84.83%, and the daily output decreased slightly to 19.4 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased, and industrial demand was stable. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased by 210,000 tons, and the port inventory was basically unchanged [4][6]. - **Outlook**: Supply remains abundant, but inventory reduction supports price increases. Attention should be paid to factors such as equipment maintenance, compound fertilizer production, and export policies [6]. Methanol - **Prices**: The main contract fell 0.76% to close at 2486 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the Taicang market decreased by 52 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply**: The capacity utilization rate of methanol plants was 84.06%, and the weekly output was 1.8268 billion tons [7]. - **Demand**: The methanol - to - olefin operating rate decreased, and traditional demand did not improve significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: Both enterprise and port inventories decreased. The enterprise inventory was 236,200 tons, and the port inventory was 773,800 tons [7]. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to move within a range, with attention on factors such as the macro - environment, equipment maintenance, and international crude oil prices [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed meal, in the second quarter, a large amount of South American soybeans will arrive in China, suppressing the soybean meal market price. Rapeseed meal supply pressure has weakened due to a significant decline in rapeseed arrivals this year, and inventory pressure is not large. However, the tariff's marginal impact is weakening, and short - term supply is relatively abundant, causing the spot price to fall and dragging down the futures price. The far - month rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate strongly due to the uncertainty of future supply [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the supply situation in Canada has loosened, putting downward pressure on rapeseed prices. Domestically, the pressure on the rapeseed oil supply side has weakened in the first quarter, but inventory is rising, constraining the market price. The rapeseed oil market shows short - term supply relaxation but long - term uncertainty. Recently, rapeseed oil has been oscillating strongly and can be participated in short - term [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, ICE rapeseed, and rapeseed all decreased. For example, the futures closing price (active contract) of rapeseed oil decreased by 61 yuan/ton, and that of ICE rapeseed decreased by 2.2 Canadian dollars/ton. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased, and the rapeseed oil warehouse receipt decreased by 30 [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu remained unchanged at 9350 yuan/ton, while the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 2520 yuan/ton. The average price of rapeseed oil remained unchanged, and the import cost of rapeseed increased by 31.64 yuan/ton to 4505.78 yuan/ton [2]. 替代品现货价格 - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9710 yuan/ton, the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 3120 yuan/ton. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 90 yuan/ton to 1060 yuan/ton [2]. 上游情况 - The total monthly rapeseed import volume increased by 1.41 million tons to 33.31 million tons, the total rapeseed inventory of oil mills decreased by 5 million tons to 35 million tons, and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed decreased by 3.46% to 21.06% [2]. 产业情况 - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil increased by 1 million tons to 21 million tons, and the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal increased by 21.55 million tons to 30.77 million tons. The inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in different regions changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [2]. 下游情况 - The monthly output of feed increased by 6.8 million tons to 2843.6 million tons, and the monthly output of edible vegetable oil increased by 60.4 million tons to 527.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry decreased by 253 billion yuan to 5549 billion yuan [2]. 期权市场 - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed meal increased, and the historical volatility also increased. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for rapeseed oil increased slightly, while the 20 - day historical volatility decreased [2]. 行业消息 - The Canadian rapeseed futures market on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) had mixed results on Monday. The Brazilian soybean harvest is about 80% complete, and the soil moisture in Argentine crop - growing areas has improved, putting pressure on international soybean prices. The USDA planting intention report shows that the estimated soybean planting area in the United States in 2025 is 83.495 million acres, lower than market expectations [2].