Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 2024-10-09 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2025/11/04 Commentary: Rapeseed Meal, Crude Oil, Aluminum Risks: Macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical situations, and reversals in policy trends. 宏观：中欧出口管制对话磋商在布鲁塞尔举行。 China Futures Daily Note 期货：11 月 3 日，股指期货涨跌不一，多数国债期货下跌；商品期货涨跌不一，幅度有限。 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Co ...

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market is expected to oscillate weakly due to the potential short - term impact on demand from the shutdown of four coal - fired glass production lines in the Shahe area, and the subsequent oversupply situation in winter. The anti - involution expectation in the soda ash industry has not materialized [8]. - The glass market is in a game between "strong expectation" and "weak reality". The Shahe production limit has been implemented, but the actual situation is not as expected. The recent price will oscillate, and the medium - term direction will be dominated by fundamentals [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - On November 4, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash opened low and moved lower, closing at 1202 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.51%, and the daily position increased by 22,468 lots [8]. - Fundamentally, the production and sales of enterprises tend to be balanced, and inventory fluctuates slightly. The weekly production of soda ash increased by 17,000 tons to 757,600 tons, and the equipment maintenance is at a high level in the same period. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of October increased by 2.53% month - on - month. The production of float glass is stable, and the production of photovoltaic glass remains unchanged. The inventory of soda ash plants slightly decreased to 1.702 million tons [8]. Glass - Fundamentally, four coal - fired production lines in Shahe will be shut down in the short term. The photovoltaic glass is in a weak balance, and the overall glass supply is at a high level this year. After the festival, the factory inventory remains high, and the inventory days have continuously increased. The real estate market has not shown a stable trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise [9]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production of soda ash, the inventory of soda ash enterprises, the market price of heavy soda ash in central China, and the production of flat glass [12][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No explicit core view is presented in the provided content. The report mainly offers data on the market situation of synthetic rubber, including price, volume, basis, and profit information for BR and BD. 3. Summary by Related Catalog BR (Cis - 1,4 - polybutadiene rubber) - **Futures Information**: On November 3, the BR主力合约(12) price was 10360, down 225 from the previous day and 445 from the previous week. The open interest was 37796, down 3692 from the previous day and 10822 from the previous week. The trading volume was 149850, up 31566 from the previous day and 37414 from the previous week. The warrant quantity remained at 8580, with no daily or weekly change. The long - short ratio was 22.03, down 2 from the previous day and 6 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis/Spread/Inter - Variety Spread**: The cis - butadiene basis was 140, down 25 from the previous day and 5 from the previous week. The styrene - butadiene basis was 740, up 125 from the previous day. The 12 - 01 spread was 30, up 45 from the previous week. The 01 - 02 spread was 5, up 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week. The RU - BR spread was 4735, up 235 from the previous day and 180 from the previous week. The NR - BR spread was 1840, up 195 from the previous day and 115 from the previous week [3]. - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 10500, down 250 from the previous day and 450 from the previous week. The Transfar market price was 10350, down 250 from the previous day and 550 from the previous week. The Qilu ex - factory price was 10500, down 500 from the previous day and 500 from the previous week. The CFR Northeast Asia price was 1450, with no daily change and down 25 from the previous week. The CFR Southeast Asia price was 1700, with no daily or weekly change [3]. - **Profit**: The spot processing profit was 961, up 10 from the previous day and 320 from the previous week. The import profit was - 1666, down 260 from the previous day and 277 from the previous week. The export profit was 2315, up 227 from the previous day and 419 from the previous week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Spot Price**: The Shandong market price was 7195, down 255 from the previous day and 755 from the previous week. The Jiangsu market price was 7200, down 200 from the previous day and 700 from the previous week. The Yangzi ex - factory price was 7200, down 300 from the previous day and 1000 from the previous week. The CFR China price was 850, down 60 from the previous day and 110 from the previous week [3]. - **Profit**: The carbon - four extraction profit was not available for calculation on November 3. The butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was - 1376, down 312 from the previous day and 742 from the previous week. The import profit was 215, up 276 from the previous day and 167 from the previous week. The export profit was - 294, up 37 from the previous day and - 193 from the previous week. The Japanese production profit was 1238, down 275 from the previous day and 275 from the previous week. The ABS production profit and SBS production profit data were partially unavailable [3].

Report Summary 1. Core View - Multiple positive factors are concentrated, and Laibo leads the protein sector [1] - Due to import cost increase and low rapeseed and rapeseed meal inventory, it is recommended to gradually take profits on early low - position long orders and not chase high for new orders. Meanwhile, be aware of the expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter [7] 2. Key Points by Category Import Cost - After the details of the fifth round of China - US economic and trade negotiations were released, China will purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans before January next year and guarantee an annual purchase of 25 million tons for three years. The US soybean futures price has effectively stood above 1100 cents and is expected to reach 1200 cents [7] Inventory Status - As of the end of the 44th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported rapeseed in China was 0.0 million tons, the same as last week and compared with 743,000 tons in the same period last year, with a five - week average of 800,000 tons. As of the end of the 43rd week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal was 800,000 tons, the same as last week; the contract volume was 700,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from last week, a 17.65% decline [7] Supply Outlook - The expected increase in soybean arrivals and sufficient oilseed supply in the fourth quarter (29 million tons) have gradually dispelled the expectation of supply shortage in the first quarter [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 4, 2025, the Shanghai Rubber Futures 2601 contract showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weakening oscillations, and a slight decline. After the weakening of macro - driving factors, the domestic rubber market returned to a situation dominated by supply - demand fundamentals. The 1 - 5 month spread discount widened to 90 yuan/ton [6]. - On the same day, the domestic Methanol Futures 2601 contract presented a pattern of increasing volume, increasing positions, weakening downward movement, and a significant decline. Suppressed by the weak supply - demand fundamentals of domestic methanol, the 2601 contract is expected to maintain a weak pattern [6]. - Also on that day, the domestic Crude Oil Futures 2512 contract showed a trend of increasing volume, increasing positions, strengthening oscillations, and a slight increase. With the rapid escalation of geopolitical risks in South America and OPEC's suspension of capacity expansion in the first quarter of next year, the supply expectation changed, boosting the confidence of oil market bulls [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of October 26, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 43.22 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons or 1.20% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory decreased by 1.29% to 6.87 million tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 1.18% to 36.35 million tons. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses decreased by 3.05 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 2.61 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 2.89 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.54 percentage points [9]. - In the week of October 31, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 73.4%, a slight increase of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but a significant decline of 5.90 percentage points year - on - year. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.30%, a slight decrease of 0.57 percentage points week - on - week and a slight decrease of 3.20 percentage points year - on - year [9]. - In September 2025, China's logistics industry prosperity index was 51.2%, a rebound of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The new order index showed stable expansion. In September, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 13.3% and 12.9%. In September 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, achieving six consecutive months of growth. From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of the heavy - truck market was about 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 20% [10]. Methanol - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 83.88%, a slight increase of 1.67% week - on - week, 1.17% month - on - month, and 1.78% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 1.9681 million tons, a slight increase of 24,600 tons week - on - week, a significant increase of 95,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 85,100 tons compared with 1.883 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the same week, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 30.98%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 9.79%, a slight increase of 1.45% week - on - week. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 72.32%, a slight decrease of 1.29% week - on - week. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 56.50%, a slight increase of 0.01% week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 84.18%, a slight decrease of 2.27 percentage points week - on - week and a slight increase of 1.15% month - on - month. As of October 31, 2025, the futures profit of domestic methanol - to - olefin was 10 yuan/ton, a slight recovery of 164 yuan/ton week - on - week and a slight rebound of 142 yuan/ton month - on - month [11]. - As of the week of October 31, 2025, the port methanol inventory in East and South China was maintained at 1.2829 million tons, a slight increase of 13,100 tons week - on - week, 14,800 tons month - on - month, and a significant increase of 261,900 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of October 23, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory reached 360,400 tons, a slight increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week, 40,400 tons month - on - month, and a significant decrease of 76,500 tons compared with 436,900 tons in the same period last year [12][14]. Crude Oil - As of the week of October 24, 2025, the number of active US oil drilling platforms was 420, a slight increase of 2 compared with the previous week and a decrease of 60 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels, a slight increase of 15,000 barrels/day week - on - week and a significant increase of 144,000 barrels/day year - on - year, reaching a historical high [15]. - As of the same week, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 416 million barrels, a significant decrease of 6.858 million barrels week - on - week and 9.543 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.565 million barrels, a slight increase of 1.334 million barrels week - on - week. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 409.1 million barrels, a slight increase of 533,000 barrels week - on - week. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 86.6%, a slight decline of 2.0 percentage points week - on - week, a significant decrease of 4.8 percentage points month - on - month, and a slight decline of 2.5 percentage points year - on - year [15]. - As of September 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 102,958 contracts, a significant increase of 4,249 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 19,105 contracts or 15.65% compared with the average in August. As of October 28, 2025, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 173,887 contracts, a significant increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week and a significant decrease of 42,468 contracts or 19.63% compared with the average in September [16]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 14,800 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | 15,095 yuan/ton | +10 yuan/ton | - 295 yuan/ton | - 10 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,175 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | 2,143 yuan/ton | - 37 yuan/ton | +32 yuan/ton | +37 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 435.8 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 467.9 yuan/barrel | +9.2 yuan/barrel | - 32.1 yuan/barrel | - 9.3 yuan/barrel | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber - related charts include the rubber basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory chart, the Qingdao Free Trade Zone rubber inventory chart, the full - steel tire operating rate trend chart, and the semi - steel tire operating rate trend chart [18][20][26]. - Methanol - related charts include the methanol basis chart, the methanol 1 - 5 month spread chart, the methanol domestic port inventory chart, the methanol inland social inventory chart, the methanol - to - olefin operating rate change chart, and the coal - to - methanol cost accounting chart [31][33][35]. - Crude - oil - related charts include the crude oil basis chart, the Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory chart, the US crude oil commercial inventory chart, the US refinery operating rate chart, the WTI crude oil net position holding change chart, and the Brent crude oil net position holding change chart [44][46][48].

2025/11/03 金 信 期 货 PT A乙 二 醇 日 刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 主力合约：11月3日主力合约eg2601基差为90元/吨，较前一日下跌2元/吨 华东地区市场价4090元/吨，较前一交易日下跌21元/吨 基本面：成本端原油连续下跌后企稳，煤炭价格上涨，今日MEG期货主力合约下跌1.32%；周内华东地区MEG港口库存合计49.9万吨， 环比增加1.6万吨。 主力动向：多空主力分歧 预期：乙二醇未来到港量预期增加，远月存在累库预期。近期部分乙二醇装置检修重启并行，且后续仍有新装置计划试车，供应端有 增量预期。双十一期间终端订单有所增加，但需求旺季已近尾声，短期预计乙二醇价格重心偏弱震荡。 GOLDTRUST FUTURES 数据来源：公开资料、金信期货 观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎 PTA PTA ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 主力合约：11月3日主力合约TA2601基差为-66元/吨，较前一日上涨6元/吨 华东地区市场价4540元/吨，较前一交易日上涨30元/吨。 基本面：成本端原油连续下跌后企稳，受石油化工板块的带动， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - On November 3, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1,284.5, down 0.85%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation. The mine's start - up rate has declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The start - up rate of coal washing plants has decreased, while the middle and downstream are replenishing stocks, and the total inventory shows a seasonal upward trend [2]. - On November 3, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1,771.5, down 1.17%. The market should be treated as a wide - range oscillation driven by cost. The demand side shows a seasonal decline in hot metal production, and the total coke inventory is higher than the same period. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 32 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - JM主力合约收盘价为1,284.50元/吨，环比下跌1.50元；J主力合约收盘价为1,771.50元/吨，环比下跌5.50元 [2]. - JM期货合约持仓量为954,896.00手，环比减少3,107.00手；J期货合约持仓量为50,255.00手，环比增加377.00手 [2]. - 焦煤前20名合约净持仓为 - 62,214.00手，环比减少5,683.00手；焦炭前20名合约净持仓为 - 5,533.00手，环比增加127.00手 [2]. - JM5 - 1月合约价差为63.00元/吨，环比下跌5.00元；J5 - 1月合约价差为137.00元/吨，环比下跌2.50元 [2]. - 焦煤仓单为500.00张，环比增加500.00张；焦炭仓单为2,070.00张，环比无变化 [2]. Spot Market - 干其毛都蒙5原煤价格为1,170.00元/吨，环比无变化；唐山一级冶金焦价格为1,775.00元/吨，环比上涨55.00元 [2]. - 俄罗斯主焦煤远期现货（CFR）价格为157.50美元/湿吨，环比无变化；日照港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港澳大利亚进口主焦煤价格为1,700.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港一级冶金焦价格为1,670.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 京唐港山西产主焦煤价格为1,760.00元/吨，环比无变化；天津港准一级冶金焦价格为1,570.00元/吨，环比上涨50.00元 [2]. - 山西晋中灵石中硫主焦价格为1,520.00元/吨，环比无变化；内蒙古乌海产焦煤出厂价为1,280.00元/吨，环比无变化 [2]. - JM主力合约基差为235.50元/吨，环比上涨1.50元；J主力合约基差为3.50元/吨，环比上涨60.50元 [2]. Upstream Situation - 314家独立洗煤厂精煤产量为26.50万吨，环比减少0.20万吨；314家独立洗煤厂精煤库存为284.40万吨，环比减少5.20万吨 [2]. - 314家独立洗煤厂产能利用率为0.37%，环比无变化；原煤产量为41,150.50万吨，环比增加2,100.80万吨 [2]. - 煤及褐煤进口量为4,600.00万吨，环比增加326.00万吨；523家炼焦煤矿山原煤日均产量为190.30万吨，环比减少0.60万吨 [2]. - 16个港口进口焦煤库存为513.89万吨，环比增加6.71万吨；焦炭18个港口库存为269.90万吨，环比增加9.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤总库存为1,052.70万吨，环比增加23.00万吨；独立焦企全样本焦炭库存为59.87万吨，环比增加1.23万吨 [2]. - 全国247家钢厂炼焦煤库存为796.32万吨，环比增加13.36万吨；全国247家样本钢厂焦炭库存为629.05万吨，环比减少4.11万吨 [2]. - 独立焦企全样本炼焦煤可用天数为12.96天，环比增加0.19天；247家样本钢厂焦炭可用天数为11.57天，环比增加0.50天 [2]. - 炼焦煤进口量为1,092.36万吨，环比增加76.14万吨；焦炭及半焦炭出口量为54.00万吨，环比减少1.00万吨 [2]. - 炼焦煤产量为3,696.86万吨，环比减少392.52万吨；独立焦企产能利用率为73.44%，环比减少0.03% [2]. - 独立焦化厂吨焦盈利情况为 - 32.00元/吨，环比增加9.00元；焦炭产量为4,255.60万吨，环比减少4.10万吨 [2]. National Downstream Situation - 247家钢厂高炉开工率为81.73%，环比减少3.00%；247家钢厂高炉炼铁产能利用率为88.59%，环比减少1.33% [2]. - 粗钢产量为7,349.01万吨，环比减少387.84万吨 [2]. Industry News - On October 31, the Yunnan Iron and Steel Industry Anti - Involution Seminar was held in Kunming. Representatives from major steel enterprises in the province attended, emphasizing that anti - involution is the common responsibility of the entire industry and a long - term strategic choice [2]. - The president of the China Animal Husbandry Association stated that high - quality development in the pig breeding industry does not exclude competition. Enterprises must innovate, reduce grain consumption, and control pig production capacity. Government departments need to intervene in the disorderly involution - style competition in the industry [2]. - Since October 1, the US government shutdown has set the second - longest record. Over one million US military soldiers face salary payment problems, and about 42 million people in the US may face food shortages in November. The shutdown may last until late November [2].

Report Core View - The report provides a forward - looking analysis of this week's hot events and their potential impacts on the futures market, including key economic data releases and policy decisions from different countries [2][3] Weekly Key Focus - On November 3rd at 09:45, Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI; on November 7th at 11:00, the General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data; at 16:00, the People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves; on November 9th at 09:30, the National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI [2] - Attention should be paid to factors such as domestic macro - policy changes, international trade and tariff wars, international geopolitical situations, speeches by US President Trump and Fed officials, and negotiations on ending the US government shutdown for their impacts on the futures market [2] Weekly Hot Event Preview November 3rd - Markit will release China's October SPGI Manufacturing PMI at 09:45, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 51.2. A slight drop may mildly suppress the rise of industrial and stock index futures but help the rise of treasury bond futures [3] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Manufacturing PMI at 22:00, with an expected and previous value of 49.1 [4] November 4th - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late October at 09:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [5] - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. It is expected to keep the cash rate at 3.60% [8] November 5th - Markit will release China's October SPGI Services PMI at 09:45, with a previous value of 52.9 [9] - The US ADP will announce the change in October ADP employment at 21:15, with an expected value of - 20,000 and a previous value of - 32,000. A higher value may help the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [10] - The US ISM will announce the US October ISM Non - Manufacturing PMI at 23:00, with an expected value of 50.9 and a previous value of 50. A slight increase may suppress the rise of gold and silver futures [11] - The US EIA will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending October 31st at 23:30, with a previous decrease of 6.858 million barrels. A continued decline may help the rise of crude oil and related commodity futures [12] November 6th - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision and meeting minutes at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. It is expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.00% [13] November 7th - The General Administration of Customs will announce October import and export data at 11:00. It is expected that exports will grow 7.1% year - on - year and imports 1.5% year - on - year, both lower than the previous values. This may suppress the rise of stock index and related commodity futures [14] - The People's Bank of China will release October foreign exchange and gold reserves at 16:00, with September foreign exchange reserves at $3,338.658 billion and gold reserves at 74.06 million ounces [16] - The University of Michigan will announce the preliminary value of the November Consumer Confidence Index at 23:00, with an expected value of 53 and a previous value of 53.6. A slight drop may suppress the rise of non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures but help the rise of gold and silver futures [17] November 9th - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce October CPI and PPI at 09:30. It is expected that CPI will decline 0.0% year - on - year and PPI will decline 2.2% year - on - year, both better than the previous values. This may mildly help the rise of commodity and stock index futures but suppress the rise of treasury bond futures [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

| 湘脂 | | 业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年11月3日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | | | | 王澄辉 | Z0019938 | | 原田 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 张跃 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | | 江苏一级 | 8400 | 8400 | 0 | 0.00% | | 期价 | | Y2601 | 8128 | 8168 | -40 | -0.49% | | 星差 | | Y2601 | 272 | 232 | 40 | 17.24% | | 现货基差报价 | | 江苏1月 | 01+250 | 01+250 | 0 | - | | 它車 | | | 27644 | 27644 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | | | | 10月31日 | 10月30日 | 涨跌 | 旅跌幅 | | 现价 | | 广东24度 | 8700 | 8750 | =50 | -0.57% | | ...