Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has high inventories and a supply surplus, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. However, the sharp reduction in nickel ore supply in the Philippines in the fourth quarter may lead to a rebound in nickel prices [3]. - The stainless - steel market has weak demand, rising inventories, and gradually weakening cost support. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,790 yuan/ton and closed at 120,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.26% compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 97,352 (- 1,139) lots, and the open interest was 108,671 (- 3,846) lots. The main contract showed a slight oscillatory upward trend. The Fed's hawkish stance strengthened the market's expectation of a cooling of the December interest - rate cut, and the stronger US dollar index may suppress the prices of foreign - market metals. But the RMB exchange - rate fluctuations offset the foreign - market pressure to some extent, and the import cost supported the domestic - market performance. China's comprehensive PMI output index in October remained at the critical point of 50.0%, showing overall economic stability and providing weak support for the demand for industrial metals [1]. - On November 20, 2025, the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed the electrolytic nickel delivery standard. From this date, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2025 and ASTM B39 - 79(2023) is allowed to be used to make standard warehouse receipts for delivery. From November 18, 2027, electrolytic nickel produced according to GB/T 6516 - 2010 and ASTM B39 - 79(2013) cannot be warehoused to make standard warehouse receipts, but the existing ones can still be used for futures - contract delivery. The new standard improves the quality requirements for delivery products and sets a two - year transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [1]. - The nickel ore market was calm, and prices remained stable. There was strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and factory procurement enthusiasm was low. In the Philippines, increased rainfall in the Surigao mining area may cause delays in shipping. Downstream nickel - iron prices were under pressure, and iron plants were reluctant to accept high - priced nickel ore. In Indonesia, the November (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to drop by 0.12 - 0.18 US dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 123,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was okay. Indonesian Yongheng nickel began to flow into the domestic market, and the spot premiums of various brands were slightly adjusted. Jinchuan nickel's premium changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,600 yuan/ton, imported nickel's premium remained unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and nickel beans' premium was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse - receipt volume was 31,206 (- 182) tons, and LME nickel inventory was 252,750 (+ 648) tons [2]. Strategy - The strategy for nickel is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety Market Analysis - On November 3, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,675 yuan/ton and closed at 12,630 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 107,662 (- 12,218) lots, and the open interest was 77,047 (- 4,171) lots. The main contract continued the oscillatory weakening trend, mainly affected by the weakening of the black - metal sector [3][4]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange updated the daily - target requirements for hot - rolled coil and stainless - steel futures contracts. The new standards mainly improve the quality requirements for delivery products and set a six - month transition period, which has a neutral - to - strong impact on prices in the long term [4]. - Market demand remained weak, spot trading was light, and traders faced great pressure to sell. Prices were lowered. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,900 (- 50) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,950 (- 50) yuan/ton. The 304/2B premium was 295 - 595 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by - 1.50 yuan/nickel point to 922.5 yuan/nickel point [4]. Strategy - The strategy for stainless steel is neutral for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - **Price and Basis**: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for RU and NR is neutral [6]. - The investment rating for BR is also neutral [6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For natural rubber, with the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has rebounded. Despite potential further inventory increases, strong cost - side support due to raw material price firmness in overseas main producing areas may limit short - term downward adjustment. The domestic futures price is undervalued, but with insufficient supply - demand drivers, prices are expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For butadiene rubber (BR), the recent price decline is mainly due to cost - side drag. The upstream raw material butadiene has a weak price trend due to increased supply and weakened demand. However, with resilient downstream demand and the current low absolute price, the downward space is expected to be limited [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Data - Futures: The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,095 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,200 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 10,360 yuan/ton, down 225 yuan/ton [1]. - Spot: The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,830 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton; the price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,720 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the market price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1]. Market Information - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sales were about 105,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 82% and a month - on - month increase of 15%, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [2]. - In September 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65% [2]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, Thailand's natural rubber exports (excluding compound rubber) totaled 1.993 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. Among them, standard rubber exports totaled 1.116 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20%; smoked sheet exports were 308,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22%; latex exports were 556,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. From January to September, exports to China totaled 759,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. Among them, standard rubber exports to China totaled 459,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19%; smoked sheet exports to China totaled 99,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 330%; latex exports to China totaled 199,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70% [2]. - In September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 3.276 million and 3.226 million vehicles respectively, a month - on - month increase of 16.4% and 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% and 14.9% respectively. Automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million vehicles for the first time in the same period in history, and the monthly year - on - year growth rate has remained above 10% for 5 consecutive months [3]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 7.28 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%; the export value was 127.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. Among them, the export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 7.02 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%; the export value was 122.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4%. In terms of the number of tires, the export volume was 5.3491 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires in the first three quarters was 6.22 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%; the export value was 105.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6% [3]. - In September 2025, the EU passenger car market sales increased by 10% to 888,672 vehicles. The cumulative sales in the first three quarters increased by 0.9% year - on - year to 8.06 million vehicles [3]. Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the RU basis was - 495 yuan/ton (- 10), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 495 yuan/ton (+ 60), the NR basis was 769.00 yuan/ton (- 43.00); whole latex was 14,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), mixed rubber was 14,600 yuan/ton (- 50), and 3L spot was 15,100 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,830 US dollars/ton (- 10), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 500 yuan/ton (- 50); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,400 yuan/ton (- 50) [4]. - Raw materials: Thai smoked sheet was 60.00 Thai baht/kg (- 0.10), Thai rubber latex was 56.00 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.00), Thai cup lump was 51.90 Thai baht/kg (- 1.40), and the spread between Thai rubber latex and cup lump was 4.10 Thai baht/kg (+ 1.40) [4]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 65.34% (- 0.53%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 72.12% (- 0.72%) [5]. - Inventories: The social inventory of natural rubber was 447,668 tons (+ 15,439), the natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port was 1,038,951 tons (- 11,478), the RU futures inventory was 120,900 tons (- 3,120), and the NR futures inventory was 44,655 tons (+ 2,015) [5]. Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and spreads: On November 3, 2025, the BR basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 75), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 7,500 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,000 yuan/ton (+ 0), the quoted price of BR9000 from Zhejiang Transfar was 10,350 yuan/ton (- 250), the price of private - owned butadiene rubber in Shandong was 10,050 yuan/ton (- 300), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 2,285 yuan/ton (- 211) [5]. - Operating rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 66.90% (- 4.81%) [5]. - Inventories: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 3,680 tons (- 840), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 27,200 tons (- 1,450) [5]. Strategy - For RU and NR, maintain a neutral view. With the recovery of domestic arrivals, Qingdao port inventory has increased. Although inventory may further increase, strong cost - side support may limit short - term downward adjustment. The price is expected to fluctuate in a range [6]. - For BR, maintain a neutral view. The recent price decline is due to cost - side drag, but with resilient downstream demand and low absolute price, the downward space is limited [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][7] Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short term, the upper limit of the cotton futures market is under significant hedging pressure, and there is a possibility of a callback to test previous lows after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the current cotton price is undervalued. After the seasonal pressure, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed [2] - **Sugar**: Before the end of the year, the sugar market is expected to fluctuate. Next year, the situation is not optimistic, and there is a possibility of new lows [5] - **Pulp**: The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the pulp price is likely to remain in the bottom - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of demand during the peak season in the fourth quarter [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.04%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,656 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,859 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [1] - US Cotton: From October 24 to 30, 2025, 202,500 tons of US 2025/26 cotton were graded and inspected, with 80.7% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made progress, pushing up US cotton prices, but the amount of US cotton China will purchase is unclear. The US government shutdown has delayed key data release, and the short - term upside of the outer market is limited due to supply and demand pressure [2] - Domestic: The new cotton year starts with low inventory, but new cotton is being listed. The purchase price of seed cotton is rising, and the expected decline in production supports the post - holiday market. However, the short - term upside of cotton prices is limited due to hedging and weak demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, there is a high hedging pressure on the market, and in the long - term, the cotton price can be optimistically viewed after seasonal pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5499 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (+0.29%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5695 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - New Sugar: On October 30, 2025, Yingmao Sugar Industry's Mengpeng Sugar Mill started production, and the new sugar is priced at 5700 yuan/ton, 710 yuan lower than the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - International: The global sugar market is in a bearish cycle due to oversupply from Brazil and India. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has decreased recently, the long - term rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - Domestic: The new sugar season in China is expected to have increased production, but the price is near the production cost, and the tightening of syrup control policies supports the price, limiting the downside [4] Strategy - Neutral. The market will fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5306 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton (+1.80%) from the previous day [5] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton [5] - Market: The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market is rising moderately, with different price increases in various regions and pulp types [5] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have limited impact on the overall supply. Domestic imports have increased, and port inventories remain high [6] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and insufficient domestic demand are suppressing pulp prices. Despite new production capacity, effective demand is lacking, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [6] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp price is likely to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for soybeans is neutral [3] - The investment rating for peanuts is also neutral [6] Core Viewpoints - The soybeans market is currently in a state of oversupply, and there is a risk of price correction during the concentrated selling period. The price increase in the short - term is limited due to high prices and competition from the Huanghuaihai region [1][3] - The peanut market shows large variety and regional price differences. Attention should be paid to farmers' subsequent shipping enthusiasm and the acquisition intention of major oil mills [3][5] Market Analysis Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2601 contract yesterday was 4076.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 26.00 yuan/ton (- 0.63%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A01 + 4, a change of + 26 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day. The warehouse capacity is saturated, the acquisition is difficult, and the price is high. Some grain merchants are shifting their focus from acquisition to sales [1][2] - Market information: The price of new - season soybeans in the Northeast market is stable. Farmers' willingness to hold prices has loosened, and the atmosphere of panic buying has cooled [1] Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2601 contract yesterday was 7800.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 12.00 yuan/ton (- 0.15%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 7950.00 yuan/ton, a change of + 120.00 yuan/ton (+ 1.53%) from the previous day. The spot basis was PK01 + 0.00, a change of - 88.00 (- 100.00%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The national average price of common peanuts is basically stable, with large variety and regional price differences. The contract purchase price of oil mills is 7800 - 8200 yuan/ton for common peanuts and 7750 - 7800 yuan/ton for oil peanuts, with strict quality control and general arrival volume [3] Strategy Soybeans - The new - season soybeans in the Hubei and Hunan regions are gradually on the market, and downstream demand is picking up. However, due to high prices and competition, the short - term market will be stable, and the price increase space is limited. The unilateral strategy is neutral [3] Peanuts - The strategy is neutral, and the risk is weakening demand [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the consensus on key economic and trade issues between China and the US, futures prices have declined. The apparent demand for rebar continued to rise last week, production increased, but the total inventory declined slowly. Hot-rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same period after a significant increase. Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill margins and the approaching end of the consumption peak, steel mills are expected to cut production, which may trigger a phased negative feedback cycle. Technically, the futures prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil are likely to turn into a volatile trend [2]. - In the iron ore market, the sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have declined from their peak, and the port inventory increase during the consumption peak has suppressed the futures prices. The slow destocking of steel inventories also dampens the overall market sentiment. After the macro positive factors are realized, the futures prices face correction pressure [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Price Data**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,079 yuan/ton, down 0.87% from the previous day and 0.68% from last week; the closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,295 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous day and 0.12% from last week. The spot price of rebar (HRB400E 20mm, Shanghai) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day and up 0.31% from last week; the spot price of hot-rolled coil (Q235 4.75mm, Shanghai) was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 0.60% from the previous day and 0.60% from last week [3]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 212.59 million tons, up 2.67% from last week; the hot-rolled coil production was 323.56 million tons, up 0.34% from last week. The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,077.08 million tons, down 2.06% from last week; the rebar social inventory was 430.81 million tons, down 1.52% from last week; the hot-rolled coil social inventory was 328.93 million tons, down 2.56% from last week [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products was 916.4 million tons, up 2.65% from last week; the apparent demand for rebar was 232.18 million tons, up 2.73% from last week; the apparent demand for hot-rolled coil was 331.89 million tons, up 1.58% from last week [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude, do not chase up or sell down, and consider buying on dips after a correction [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Data**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore futures main contract was 782.5 yuan/dry ton, down 2.19% from the previous day and 0.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous contract was 106.79 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 2.51% from last week [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The sample steel mill's molten iron production decreased significantly on a weekly basis. Global iron ore shipments declined from the peak, and the port inventory increased during the consumption peak. Steel mills may continue to cut production, suppressing iron ore prices [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and patiently wait for the price to correct before buying on dips [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports was 33.141 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 12.298 billion tons; the total arrival volume at 45 Chinese ports was 32.184 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 11.893 billion tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 15.859 billion tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.9 billion tons [7]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.138 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.745 billion tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 billion tons, a week-on-week decrease of 1.667 billion tons [7]. - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, at the end of October, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 9.05 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 310,000 tons, a decrease of 3.3%. The inventory continued to decline slightly [7].

Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: November 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Coke and coking coal futures have stopped rising due to accelerated steel production cuts, but the spot market still has strong support. The market may experience periodic corrections, but overall it is relatively resistant to decline. Future attention should be paid to the impact of rising temperatures on coal demand and the support of steel profit repair expectations on the coking coal market [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Performance - On November 3, the main contract 2601 of coke futures oscillated lower for three consecutive trading days, while the main contract 2601 of coking coal futures oscillated within a range and was relatively resistant to decline. The closing price of coke futures contract J2601 was 1771.5 yuan/ton, down 1.17%; the closing price of coking coal futures contract JM2601 was 1284.5 yuan/ton, down 0.85% [5] - In the black - series futures on November 3, in terms of the long - short positions of the top 20 in each contract, the long - short deviation degrees of different contracts varied. For example, the long - short deviation degree of SS2512 was 6.89%, and that of I2601 was - 3.74% [6] 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On November 3, the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1570 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal prices in different regions showed different changes, with increases in Tangshan, Heze, and Pingdingshan [8] - The daily KDJ indicator of the coke 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead - cross the previous day, and the daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract had a dead - cross. The daily MACD red bar of the coke 2601 contract began to narrow, and that of the coking coal 2601 contract continued to narrow [8] 3.3 Market Outlook - Recently, the coke production of independent coking enterprises has significantly declined, and the coke inventories of ports and independent coking enterprises are generally low, leading to the third round of price increases in the coke spot market. Due to low - temperature weather in most northern regions and stricter coal mine safety production inspections, coal prices have generally risen. Although the import of coking coal has recovered, it was still down by more than 6% year - on - year from January to September, and the spot price of coking coal has significantly increased [10] 3.4 Industry News - Huaxin Steel adheres to a lean production and low - inventory operation strategy. The iron ore inventory cycle is about 22 - 25 days, and the coal and coke inventory is about 10 - 15 days. The proportion of long - term coking coal contracts is about 60%. In the third quarter, the long - term coking coal contracts increased by about 50 yuan/ton compared with the second quarter, and the market coal increased by about 100 - 200 yuan/ton [11] - On November 3, the freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan, Ganqimaodu to Tangshan, and Xiaoyi to Rizhao showed different trends. The freight rates from Liulin to Tangshan and Ganqimaodu to Tangshan were flat, while the freight rate from Xiaoyi to Rizhao increased by 11 yuan/ton compared with last week [11] - In the third quarter of 2025, Yankuang Energy's revenue was 38.259 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.26%; the net profit was 2.288 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 36.60%. The revenue in the first three quarters was 104.957 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.64% [11] - On November 3, Mongolia's ER Company's coking coal was auctioned online. The starting price of Meng 3 clean coal was 800 yuan/ton, and all 12,800 tons were sold at a price of 1040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on the 31st [11] - From October 27 to November 2, the global iron ore shipments were 32.138 million tons, a decrease of 1.745 million tons compared with the previous period. The shipments from Australia and Brazil were 27.592 million tons, a decrease of 1.667 million tons [11] - In October this year, India's total power generation decreased by 6% year - on - year to 142.45 billion kWh, and the coal - fired power generation decreased by 13.2% year - on - year to 98.38 billion kWh [12] - On November 1, Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry released the reference prices for thermal coal in the first half of November 2025, with most prices lower than those in the second half of October [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data graphs, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national daily average pig iron output, the coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants, and the basis of coke and coking coal contracts [14][18][19][26][32]

2025 年 11 月 04 日 豆粕：美豆再创新高，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：国储收购开启，盘面表现稳定 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 | （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2601 （元/吨） | -19 4076 | （-0.46%） | 4083 | -9 （-0.22%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3026 +21 | （+0.70%） | 3027 | -9 （-0.30%） | | | CBOT大豆01 （美分/蒲） | 1134.5 | +19.5（+1.75%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 320.6 | -0.8（-0.25%） | n a | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 山东 （元/吨） | 3030～3110， M2601+50/+70/+80； 持平； 5-7月基差M26 ...

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On November 3, 2025, the three major A-share indexes closed slightly higher. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.55% to 3976.52 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 13404.06 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.29% to 3196.87 points. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.1071 trillion yuan, a decrease of 210.7 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 Index trended stronger on November 3, closing at 4653.40, a rise of 12.73 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On November 3, the coke weighted index fluctuated within a range, closing at 1800.0, a decrease of 20.6 [3]. - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow consolidation on November 3, closing at 1299.8 yuan, a decrease of 11.6 [4]. - Coke: Supply recovery is limited due to environmental protection, maintenance, and limited profits. Demand is strong as coke enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and most steel mills are purchasing as needed. Inventory is at a low level. The fundamentals are strong [5]. - Coking coal: The second round of price increases for coke has been partially implemented, and the third round is expected to be implemented strongly. The price of coking coal has risen to a new high this year. Supply is tight [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors, ICE sugar stopped falling and rebounded slightly on Friday. The new sugar of Mengpeng Sugar Factory of Yunnan Yingmao Sugar Industry is on the market, with a price of 5700 yuan/ton in the Kunming market. Supported by factors such as the rebound of ICE sugar and the strong price of new sugar, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fluctuated upward on Monday [5]. Rubber - Affected by technical factors, Shanghai rubber fluctuated and closed slightly lower on Monday. Affected by the significant increase in the total inventory of rubber in Qingdao Port last week, the bears pressured the night - session of Shanghai rubber to fluctuate slightly lower. As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 447,700 tons, a rise of 3.57% [6]. Soybean Meal - On November 3, the international CBOT soybean reached a 16 - month high. In the domestic market, the M2601 main contract closed at 3026 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.71%. The current strength of the domestic soybean meal futures market is mainly due to the rising import cost driven by the continuous rise of US soybeans. The upward momentum may weaken in the future [8]. Live Pigs - On November 3, the LH2601 main contract closed at 11735 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68%. The supply of live pigs in the fourth quarter is sufficient, and the short - term support for pig prices has weakened. The situation of "supply exceeding demand" has not changed fundamentally [9]. Palm Oil - On November 3, the palm oil futures continued to be under selling pressure, and the main contract P2601 closed down 1.14%. As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions decreased by 2.36% week - on - week but increased by 17.29% year - on - year [9]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai Copper 2512 main contract oscillated. The trading volume and open interest decreased, indicating that the bulls' willingness to close positions increased. The macro - face and fundamentals are both weak, and it is under pressure at a historical high [10]. Cotton - The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13585 yuan/ton on the night of Monday. The cotton inventory increased by 80 lots compared with the previous trading day. The new cotton warehousing has accelerated, and the inventory at ports has increased. The average purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang on November 3 was 6.30 yuan/kg [11][12]. Logs - The 2601 contract of logs opened at 788, closed at 782, and increased in positions by 1243 lots on November 3. The supply - demand relationship has no major contradictions, and the market is gradually destocking. Attention should be paid to the spot price, import data, inventory changes, and macro - expectations [13]. Iron Ore - On November 3, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell by 1.82%, closing at 782.5 yuan. The supply pressure has eased, but the iron - making output has decreased, and the price is in an oscillating trend [13]. Asphalt - On November 3, the asphalt 2601 main contract oscillated and closed down 0.58%, at 3233 yuan. The utilization rate of asphalt production capacity increased slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The demand is slowly released, and the price mainly follows the cost of crude oil and oscillates [13]. Steel - On November 3, rb2601 closed at 3079 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3295 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is difficult to rise further in early November, and the supply and demand are both weak. The steel price may oscillate weakly in the short term [14]. Shanghai Aluminum - On November 3, al2512 closed at 21600 yuan/ton. The supply is limited by capacity policies, and the demand is stable. The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the price center of electrolytic aluminum is expected to move up steadily [14]. Alumina - On November 3, ao2601 closed at 2789 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina supply is in a "surplus" state, and the procurement demand has declined. The price is under pressure [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Report's Core View The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures and industries, including base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses market performance, fundamentals, and offers trading strategies for each sector, considering factors such as supply and demand, inventory levels, and macroeconomic conditions. Summary by Related Catalogs Base Metals - **Copper**: Market showed weak oscillation yesterday. With a four - day increase in the US dollar index and China's manufacturing PMI under expectation, domestic weekly inventory rose by 175 tons and wire - cable operating rate declined. The trading strategy is to maintain a view of weak - upward oscillation [1]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 1.41%. Supply side saw an increase in operating capacity, while demand side had a slight decline in weekly aluminum product operating rate. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and domestic aluminum ingot destocking should be monitored [1]. - **Alumina**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price fell 0.14%. Affected by pollution warnings, northern production capacity decreased, while electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production. The market is in surplus, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - **Zinc**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.74%. Supply side had a decline in zinc concentrate processing fees, and consumption was in the off - season. LME inventory formed a bottom support, and the Fed's hawkish stance pressured the price. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - **Lead**: Yesterday, the main contract's closing price rose 0.46%. Supply side was marginally loose, and consumption had mixed factors. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the trading strategy is range - based operation [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Monday's main contract rose. Supply side had a reduction in furnace - opening numbers in the southwest, and both social and warehouse - receipt inventories decreased slightly. Demand was supported by high - operating - rate industries. The price is expected to oscillate between 8600 - 9400 yuan/ton, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Yesterday, the main contract rose. Supply decreased last week, and demand was strong. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, and the trading strategy is to take small - position long positions and sell put options [2]. - **Polysilicon**: Monday's main contract fell. Domestic photovoltaic installation growth in Q4 is under pressure. The trading strategy is to hold previous long positions [2]. - **Tin**: Yesterday, the price oscillated weakly. Supply side was slowly recovering, and demand was based on needs. The trading strategy is to take an oscillation view in the short - term [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: The main contract closed at 3077 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. Building material inventory decreased, and the supply - demand contradiction was limited. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 3030 - 3100 yuan/ton [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The main contract closed at 782 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. Supply increased, and demand decreased. The trading strategy is to hold short positions, with a reference range of 760 - 790 yuan/ton [4]. - **Coking Coal**: The main contract closed at 1287.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan. Supply - side inventory was divided, and there was an expectation of production reduction. The trading strategy is to wait and see, with a reference range of 1260 - 1310 yuan/ton [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Overnight, CBOT soybeans continued to rise. Supply side had a slight US soybean reduction and a South American increase expectation. Demand side had improved export and crushing. The US soybeans are short - term strong, and domestic prices follow the cost side [5][6]. - **Corn**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to be weak due to new - crop pressure. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate weakly [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian market was weak. Supply in Malaysia was higher than expected, and demand had a slight increase in exports. The trading strategy is that oils and fats are weak with differentiation, and the structure is suitable for reverse arbitrage [6]. - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract rose. Internationally, the price was expected to be weak, while domestically, it was strong. The trading strategy is to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - **Cotton**: Overnight, US cotton prices rebounded. Internationally, production was expected to decline, and domestically, the price oscillated down. The trading strategy is to wait and see within the 13400 - 13700 yuan/ton range [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices oscillated narrowly, and spot prices were expected to oscillate strongly due to supply - demand growth. The trading strategy is that futures prices will oscillate within a range [6]. - **Pigs**: Futures prices were weak, and supply pressure remained large. The trading strategy is that futures prices will be weak [6]. - **Apples**: The main contract fell. Different regions had different situations, and the price rose due to concerns about the future market. The trading strategy is to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply pressure increased but at a slower pace, and demand was weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [8]. - **PVC**: The main contract closed at 4682 yuan/ton, down 1.1%. Supply increased, and demand had a slight recovery. The trading strategy is to short or do reverse arbitrage [8]. - **PTA and PX**: PX supply was balanced, and PTA had a slight destocking. PX is expected to be strong, and PTA should be shorted at high prices in the long - term [8][9]. - **Rubber**: Monday, the main contract oscillated widely. Raw materials were under pressure, and inventory accumulation exceeded expectations. The price is expected to find a bottom under pressure [9]. - **Glass**: The main contract closed at 1094 yuan/ton, up 0.1%. Supply - demand was weak, and the trading strategy is reverse arbitrage [9]. - **PP**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply increased, and demand was in the off - season. The short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [9]. - **MEG**: Supply pressure was large, and inventory was at a low level. The trading strategy is to short at high prices [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil prices oscillated. Supply pressure was increasing, and demand was seasonally weak. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and if Russian oil reduction is less than 500,000 barrels/day, it can be shorted at high prices [10]. - **Styrene**: Yesterday, the main contract fell slightly. Supply - demand was weak, and the short - term is expected to oscillate weakly, and long - term, it is advisable to short at high prices [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, down 2.5%. Supply - demand was balanced, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [10].