交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月11日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货震荡偏弱，伴随盘面走低，聚酯工厂后点价增多，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差略走强，少量聚 酯工厂补货。12月中主港货在01贴水25附近商谈成交，12月下主港在01-20附近成交，个别货源价格略低，价格商谈区间在 4595~4625。今日主流现货基差在01-25。中性 5、主力持仓：净多 多减 偏多 6、预期：近期PTA供需格局变动不大，部分聚酯工厂阶段性补货，现货基差区间波动，期货盘面跟随成本端震荡运行，关注油 价走势及下游需求情况。 2、基差：现货4612，01合约基差-4，盘面升水 中性 3 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, the decline of glass prices is expected to slow down, and attention should be paid to the upper resistance level of 1030 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash continues to decline, breaking through the previous low - level support, and subsequent attention should be paid to the integer support level of 1000 yuan/ton. In the long - term, the forward policy expectations have positive signals, and the "Three Major Projects" fund allocation is accelerating, which is expected to support the demand for infrastructure glass in Q1 2026 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the soda ash main contract is 1094 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan; the closing price of the glass main contract is 964 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The soda ash - glass price difference is 130 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The positions of the soda ash and glass main contracts decreased by 79,430 hands and 54,739 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 soda ash decreased by 3,031, while that of glass increased by 5,254. The exchange warehouse receipts of soda ash decreased by 724 tons, and those of glass increased by 303 tons. The basis of soda ash increased by 31 yuan/ton, and that of glass increased by 16 yuan/ton. The spread between the January and May glass contracts decreased by 6, and that of soda ash decreased by 3 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of North China heavy - soda ash and Central China heavy - soda ash remained unchanged at 1120 yuan/ton and 1300 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China light - soda ash and Central China light - soda ash were stable at 1400 yuan/ton and 1165 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shahe glass sheets decreased by 4 yuan/ton to 968 yuan/ton, and the price of Central China glass sheets remained at 1110 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of soda ash plants increased by 0.66 percentage points to 80.74%, and the weekly operating rate of float glass enterprises decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 73.63%. The weekly in - production capacity of glass decreased by 0.28 million tons/year to 15.44 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines decreased by 2 to 218. The weekly inventory of soda ash enterprises decreased by 3.61 million tons to 150.25 million tons, and the weekly inventory of glass enterprises decreased by 2.92 million heavy boxes to 59.442 million heavy boxes [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of newly - started real estate area was 49,061.39 million square meters, an increase of 3,662.39 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real - estate completion area was 34,861 million square meters, an increase of 3,732 million square meters [2] 3.5 Industry News - Some soda ash plants had production adjustments, such as Jiangsu Jingshen Chemical reducing production, Henan Zhongyuan Chemical maintaining stable production, Hubei Shuanghuan keeping stable output, Henan Haohua Junhua starting operation, Tangshan Sanyou reducing production to 70% load, Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical resuming production, Shandong Haihua reducing load, Zhongyan Anhui Hongsifang resuming load, Henan Jinshan reducing production for maintenance, and Chongqing Xiangyu Yanhua resuming production. For glass, the supply contraction trend will be more obvious next week, and the average daily melting volume in Q1 2026 is expected to drop to around 155,000 tons. The regional supply shows a pattern of "local contraction, overall looseness" [2] 3.6 View Summary - The demand side is the core factor suppressing the current market. In the short - term, the decline in construction site start - up rates in the north, limited demand pull from the automotive industry and the export market, and weak terminal receiving willingness have a negative impact on the market. However, forward policy expectations are positive, and the "Three Major Projects" are expected to support infrastructure glass demand in Q1 2026 [2] 3.7 Prompt Attention - This week, the operating rate of soda ash plants declined. Although some plants such as Zhongyan Kunshan increased production and some completed maintenance, many other plants continued maintenance or reduced load. There is no large - scale maintenance plan for subsequent soda ash plants for now, and the supply is expected to increase next week. The demand from the glass industry, the largest downstream of soda ash, has decreased. If the cold - repair of glass production lines is implemented, the demand for heavy - soda ash will further decrease. Although the inventory of glass manufacturers has decreased to a low level, the short - term driving effect on soda ash demand is limited and there are downward risks [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic growth, integrating consumer welfare and investment in goods and people to stimulate new supply and demand interactions [1][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period highlights the strengthening role of consumption as a main engine and stabilizer for the economy, with consumer spending contributing approximately 60% to economic growth annually [3][4] - The domestic market is positioned as a key driver for high-quality development, with a focus on enhancing consumption and effective investment to leverage the advantages of a large-scale market [1][4][10] Group 2 - In recent years, Luoyang has launched new consumption formats and scenarios, leading to significant tourism growth, with 8.79 million visitors and a total tourism revenue of 7.563 billion yuan during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [2] - The service consumption sector has seen a rapid increase, with the proportion of residents' service consumption spending rising by 3.5 percentage points to 46.1% [3] - The average annual growth rate of residents' service consumption expenditure is projected to be 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, indicating a shift from goods consumption to service consumption [7][10] Group 3 - The development of new consumption formats is characterized by the integration of culture and economy, with innovative experiences in shopping and entertainment, such as museums and cultural markets [6][10] - The relationship between supply and demand is highlighted as a dialectical unity, where high-quality supply can create new consumption scenarios and stimulate demand [6][8] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see a transformation in consumer demand from basic needs to higher quality and experiential consumption, driving supply innovation [7][9] Group 4 - The total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to increase from 39.1 trillion yuan in 2020 to 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 5.5% [10] - The government aims to implement policies that enhance consumption and investment, ensuring a balanced interaction between the two to stimulate economic growth [11][12] - The service consumption sector is identified as a significant growth driver, with a focus on improving supply capabilities and quality to meet diverse consumer needs [12][13]

Market Overview - The polyester bottle chip market showed a reasonable transaction atmosphere, with orders from December to February trading between 5680-5740 CNY/ton, slightly lower at 5600-5640 CNY/ton, and a few transactions slightly higher at 5760-5780 CNY/ton, indicating price variations among different brands [1] - The domestic polyester bottle chip capacity utilization rate averaged 72.05%, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5321 CNY, an increase of 44 CNY/ton compared to the previous period [1] - The weekly production gross profit for polyester bottle chips was -164 CNY/ton, showing a slight increase of 2.6 CNY/ton week-on-week [1] - As of December 5, the available inventory days for polyester bottle chips recorded 16.13 days, a decrease of 0.36 days or 2.18% from the previous week, while the cumulative increase over the past month was 0.32 days, or 2.02% [1] Institutional Insights - New Century Futures noted that with the continued decline in oil prices and weak cost support, the industry sentiment remains cautious, suggesting that the polyester bottle chip market may maintain a sluggish state [3] - Galaxy Futures reported stable operating rates for bottle chips recently, with no major beverage manufacturers conducting tenders, leading to a tight supply of certain bottle chip sources and an increase in processing fees. However, the supply side is expected to remain relatively loose due to the anticipated production of a new 300,000-ton polyester bottle chip facility by Shandong Fuhai and the expected restart of two 300,000-ton facilities by China Resources Zhuhai in late December, with downstream purchasing activity being slow [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][5][7][9] 2. Core Views Methanol - Yesterday, methanol futures oscillated narrowly at low levels. The supply in the inland increased with the restart of some devices, but the profits of coal - and gas - based methanol were weak. The traditional downstream demand slightly improved, and winter fuel demand provided support. In ports, due to gas restrictions in Iran, many devices stopped production, leading to an expected significant decline in imports in Q1 and strengthened inventory - reduction expectations, but current overseas shipments were still high, and there were many recent warehouse receipts registrations, resulting in weak prices. Pay attention to the subsequent trend of MTO05 [1] Polyolefins - The polyolefin market continued to decline, with a pessimistic market sentiment and weak trading. The polyethylene supply is increasing as the operating rate gradually recovers, and although upstream inventory is being depleted faster, it is still higher year - on - year. The profit of PE is relatively good among ethylene downstream products, so there is no obvious drive for production reduction. The polypropylene supply is expected to increase after maintenance, and inventory depletion has accelerated, but the overall inventory level is still higher than in previous years. The cost of propylene is strong, compressing the profit of the PP production process, and the overall valuation is moderately to low. The fundamentals show a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with cost support and inventory pressure coexisting [5] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices continued to fall on Tuesday. Although API data showed a significant decline in US crude oil inventory last week, it was still difficult to alleviate market concerns about oversupply. Geopolitical situations such as the US - Venezuela situation and Russia - Ukraine peace talks still affected oil prices. The Fed's interest - rate meeting on December 11 may boost market sentiment. It is expected that Brent crude oil will oscillate between $60 - $65 per barrel in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the announcements of the IEA, OPEC, and the Fed meeting [7] Natural Rubber - On the supply side, the expectation of an increase in overseas supply is rising, and upstream cost support is weakening, but the geopolitical conflict between Thailand and Cambodia may cause market speculation. On the demand side, the production scheduling of tire - maintenance enterprises is gradually recovering, which drives overall output to some extent. However, the shipment rhythm of tire enterprises is slow, and production control behavior still exists, limiting the increase in overall capacity utilization. The market is mainly digesting inventory, and the short - term purchase rhythm has slowed down, with end - users maintaining rigid demand. Overall, the inventory accumulation in Qingdao spot market has slowed down, and due to the geopolitical conflict, the bearish sentiment in the market has converged. It is expected that rubber prices will oscillate [9] LPG - The LPG market shows a complex situation. Futures prices generally declined, while some spot prices remained stable or had small fluctuations. The inventory of LPG refineries and ports decreased, and the operating rate of upstream and downstream industries had minor changes. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply, demand, and international prices [11] Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the operating rate has returned to a high level, and production remains high. The pending orders of soda ash plants have decreased, and it is expected to return to the inventory - accumulation pattern this week, with a significant oversupply. Downstream demand has decreased, especially in the float - glass industry, and the photovoltaic industry is difficult to grow in the short term. The overall demand for soda ash has contracted. Without actual capacity withdrawal or production - load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. The overall situation is still bearish, and the price will continue to oscillate weakly at the bottom. Short positions can be held. For glass, the spot price in some areas has shown signs of weakness, and the production - sales ratio has declined. The short - term demand in some southern regions is supported by the year - end construction rush, but there are concerns about the long - term demand. With the decrease in temperature in the north, outdoor construction will stop, and the outflow of glass from the northeast and northwest will put pressure on other regions. The 01 contract will still face pressure as the delivery month approaches, and the high inventory in the middle - stream trade and futures - spot sectors will also pressure the spot price. It is expected that the futures market will still face pressure [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the supply - demand situation still has certain pressure. The operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong is at a high level, and the inventory of main downstream enterprises is high. There is no obvious positive news in the short term. The supply in the East China region is still abundant, and the traditional off - season of demand continues, with no obvious boost from exports. It is expected that the price in East China will continue to weaken, and the long - term supply - demand situation still has pressure. The price of caustic soda is expected to run weakly, and short positions can be held. For PVC, the supply pressure remains this week, and the operating rate still has room for improvement. The demand is sluggish, and although the support from soft products is relatively good, the overall downstream operating rate remains low. The traditional off - season from November to January and the reduction of real - estate demand in the north due to winter have a negative impact. Although domestic PVC has a price advantage in exports and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is beneficial, the expected implementation of anti - dumping duties makes it difficult for external demand to increase significantly. The overall demand has weak support for PVC, the supply - demand situation is in an oversupply pattern. The price is not optimistic, and although the absolute price is low and the futures market has been strong recently, it is difficult to form a continuous upward drive. It is expected to continue the weakening trend at the bottom [14] Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, although the short - term impact on supply is limited due to short - process operating rate support, there is an expected supply contraction in Q1 with the planned maintenance of some Asian devices. The demand side is weak due to concentrated PTA device maintenance and seasonal decline in end - demand. The short - term drive is limited, but there is support at low levels due to the expected improvement in medium - term supply - demand. It is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 7000 yuan/ton. For PTA, the device maintenance in December is still concentrated, and the reduction of polyester operating rate is postponed due to domestic and foreign demand support. After the cancellation of India's BIS certification, the export expectation has increased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with a phased repair of the basis. However, the supply - demand situation is expected to be relatively loose in Q1, and the repair space of the basis is limited. The absolute price is expected to oscillate weakly. It is expected to oscillate between 4500 - 4800 yuan/ton, and a long - short spread strategy for TA5 - 9 can be considered. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory has been continuously accumulating, and the supply - demand situation is loose from January to February. However, the high - level operation of polyester production provides support for ethylene glycol demand. At the same time, many domestic ethylene glycol devices have been shut down or reduced production, narrowing the inventory - accumulation amplitude in December. It is expected to oscillate at low levels in the short term, and the EG1 - 5 spread reversal strategy can stop loss and exit. For short - fiber, the supply - demand situation remains weak. The supply is at a high level as there is still profit and low inventory pressure. The end - demand is seasonally weakening. The short - fiber price will oscillate weakly following the raw materials. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin on the futures market can be shorted when it is high. For polyester bottle - chips, the supply in December is expected to increase, and it is the off - season of demand. The supply - demand situation remains loose. The main contradiction is the high inventory and weak demand. The price will mainly follow the cost, and the processing margin is expected to be squeezed. The strategy is the same as that for PTA, and the processing margin of the main contract is expected to oscillate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. The short - term strategy is to short the processing margin [15] Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, some disproportionation devices and individual large plants plan to conduct maintenance and reduce production load, but some devices will resume production. The domestic supply is expected to remain stable. The overall downstream cash - flow has improved, but the increase in device maintenance and future shutdown plans limit the demand. There will still be a large amount of imports arriving at ports, and the port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and the price drive is weak. The US - Asia arbitrage window theoretically exists. Pay attention to South Korea's export situation. The short - term self - drive of BZ2603 is weak. Pay attention to domestic device changes, and the price may follow the oil price and styrene. For styrene, the planned and unplanned maintenance of styrene devices is expected to increase, but the overall operating rate may slightly increase as the profit continues to recover, and the overall supply pressure may remain. Some downstream industries' operating rates have decreased due to cold air, and the high inventory and profit - decline pressure limit the demand. There will be export shipments in December, and the port inventory may continue to decrease. The supply - demand situation is in a tight balance, but due to weak cost support and seasonal decline in end - demand, the upward space is limited. Pay attention to device changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market has obvious long - short games, and the futures market may be affected by oil prices and macro - factors. The short - term EB01 is expected to oscillate weakly [17] Urea - The current spot price of urea has shown signs of weakness, and the trading atmosphere in mainstream regions has weakened, with a slowdown in trading enthusiasm. The daily production of urea has significantly rebounded, further intensifying the supply pressure, while the downstream demand is still in the seasonal off - season. The contradiction between weak supply and demand is prominent, which will suppress the urea price in the short term. It is expected to continue the weakly oscillating trend. If the spot price continues to weaken, the futures price will further decline. Pay attention to the 1620 - 1700 yuan/ton range [18] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Methanol - **Price and Spread**: MA2601 and MA2605 closing prices decreased, with declines of - 1.10% and - 1.56% respectively. The MA15 spread increased by 11, with a change rate of - 12.50%. The Taicang basis increased by 11, with a change rate of - 366.67%. The MTO05 spread increased by 12, with a change rate of - 7.45%. The spot prices of Inner Mongolia North Line and Henan Luoyang changed, with changes of - 0.75% and 0.36% respectively, and the Taicang spot price remained unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 3.32%, the port inventory decreased by 1.03% (1.41 million tons), and the social inventory decreased by 1.52% [1] - **Operating Rate**: The domestic upstream enterprise operating rate increased by 0.59%, the overseas upstream enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.34%, the northwest enterprise sales - to - production ratio decreased by 3.69%, and the downstream MTO device operating rate increased by 2.00%. The downstream formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE operating rates had minor changes [1] Polyolefins - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of L2601, L2605, PP2601, and PP2605 decreased, with declines of - 1.29%, - 1.46%, - 1.32%, and - 1.41% respectively. The L15, PP15, and LP01 spreads changed. The spot prices of East China PP fiber and North China LDPE decreased, with declines of - 0.47% and - 1.06% respectively [5] - **Inventory**: The PE enterprise inventory decreased by 9.80% (4.93 million tons), the PE social inventory decreased by 3.05%, the PP enterprise inventory decreased by 8.00% (4.75 million tons), and the PP trader inventory decreased by 7.73% [5] - **Operating Rate**: The PE device operating rate decreased by 0.54%, the PE downstream weighted operating rate decreased by 1.22%, the PP device operating rate decreased by 0.68%, and the PP powder operating rate decreased by 4.68% [5] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices decreased, with declines of - 0.88%, - 1.07%, and - 1.56% respectively. The Brent M1 - M3, WTI M1 - M3, and SC M1 - M3 spreads changed. The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil also decreased [7] - **Refined Oil Crack Spread**: The crack spreads of US gasoline, European gasoline, and Singapore gasoline increased, while the crack spreads of US diesel and Singapore diesel decreased [7] Natural Rubber - **Price and Spread**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex remained unchanged, the full - latex basis increased by 21.92%, the price of Thai standard mixed rubber decreased by 0.69%, and the non - standard price difference decreased by 3.25%. The 9 - 1, 1 - 5, and 5 - 9 spreads changed [9] - **Fundamental Data**: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and China in October decreased, while the production in India increased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires increased. The domestic tire production and export volume in October decreased, and the natural rubber import volume decreased [9] - **Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory increased by 1.49%, the natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory in SHFE increased by 11.79%, the dry - rubber bonded - warehouse delivery rate in Qingdao decreased, and the general - trade warehousing and delivery rates increased [9] LPG - **Price and Spread**: The prices of PG2601, PG2602, and PG2603 decreased, with declines of - 1.17%, - 1.00%, and - 1.06% respectively. The PG01 - 12, PG01 - 02, and PG01 - 03 spreads changed. The South China spot price and deliverable spot price remained stable or had minor declines [11] - **Inventory**: The LPG refinery storage - capacity ratio decreased by 1.31%, the port inventory decreased by 7.04% (20.8 million tons), and the port storage - capacity ratio decreased by 7.05% [11] - **Operating Rate**: The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 0.11%, the sample - enterprise weekly sales - to - production ratio decreased by 0.99%, the downstream PDH operating rate increased by 0.57%, and the downstream alkylation operating rate decreased by 5.25% [11] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and South China remained unchanged. The glass 2601 price decreased by 1.80%, and the 01 basis increased by 31.03% [13] - **Soda Ash**: The prices of North China, East China, Central China, and Northwest remained unchanged. The soda ash 2601 and 2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 0.71% and - 1.15% respectively, and the 01 basis increased by 4.79% [13] - **Supply and Inventory**: The soda - ash operating rate increased by 0.82%, the weekly soda - ash production increased by 0.83% (0.6 million tons), the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.40%, and the photovoltaic daily melting volume remained unchanged. The glass inventory decreased by 4.68% (292 million cubic meters), the soda - ash factory inventory decreased by 5.35% (8.5 million tons), and the soda - ash delivery warehouse inventory decreased by 4.64% (2.7 million tons) [13] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price and Spread**: The price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.9%, and the V2601 and V2605 prices decreased, with declines of - 1.4% and - 1.5% respectively. The V basis increased by 77.4% [14] - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic - soda industry operating rate increased by 0.2%, the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.2%, the alumina industry operating rate decreased by 2.5%, and the PVC downstream product operating rate decreased [14] - **Inventory**: The liquid - caustic East China factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.2%, the liquid - caustic Shandong inventory decreased by 3.5%, the PVC upstream factory - warehouse inventory increased by 1.0%, and the PVC total social inventory increased by 0.3% [14] Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, and CFR China MX decreased [15] - **Downstream Polyester Product Price and Cash - Flow**: The prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products remained stable or had minor declines. The cash - flows of POY

Market Overview - On December 9, the styrene market in East China experienced slight fluctuations, with limited port arrivals leading to a forecasted decline in port inventory. The basis rose and then fell, while downstream factory profits were compressed, resulting in a strong resistance to high prices and a decline in trading atmosphere. Styrene industry profits remained acceptable, and Lianyungang Petrochemical resumed production ahead of schedule [1][2]. Profit Analysis - As of December 9, the profit for non-integrated styrene units was approximately 154 yuan per ton [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Styrene supply: As of December 4, the overall production of styrene was 342,400 tons, an increase of 7,700 tons, with an operating rate of 68.85%, up by 1.56% [2]. - Styrene inventory: As of December 8, the total port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu was 146,800 tons, a decrease of 13,800 tons from the previous period; the commodity inventory was 87,800 tons, down by 8,600 tons [2]. - Downstream utilization rates: As of December 4, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 56.36%, up by 1.61%; the PS capacity utilization rate was 59.0%, up by 1.4%; the ABS capacity utilization rate was 68.3%, down by 2.9% [2]. Market Outlook - There is an expectation of increased planned and unplanned maintenance for styrene units. However, with profits continuing to recover, the overall operating rate may see a slight increase. The resumption of production by Guoen Ruihua may maintain overall supply pressure. Some downstream operations are affected by cold weather, leading to reduced operating loads, compounded by high inventory and profit pressures, limiting demand support. Styrene exports are expected in December, and port inventory may continue to decrease. Overall, the supply-demand structure for styrene is tight, but due to weak cost support and seasonal demand decline, the upward potential for styrene prices is limited. Future attention should be on unit changes and actual export transactions. In the short term, the spot market is characterized by a clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with the market likely influenced by oil prices and macroeconomic disturbances. The strategy suggests a bearish outlook for the short-term EB01 [3].

中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-12-10 美联储12月利率决议临近，关注预期差 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 有⾊观点：美联储12⽉利率决议临近，关注预期差 交易逻辑：11月欧美制造业PMI普遍回落且美国11月ADP就业数据偏弱，投 资对美联储12月降息预期升温，整体上看，宏观面预期偏正面。原料端延 续偏紧局面，并逐步往冶炼端传导，供应端收缩风险仍然存在。终端略偏 弱，11月初汽车销售增速同比转降，11-12月空调排产降幅扩大，2026年 1-2月排产预计改善，基本金属现实供需略改善，预期偏紧。整体来看， 中短期，宏观面预期正面+供应扰动担忧推高价格，但美联储12月利率决 议公布前资金出现获利回吐，可谨慎关注铜铝锡低吸做多机会；长期，国 内潜在增量刺激政策预期仍在，并且铜铝锡供应扰动问题仍在，供需仍有 趋紧预期，看好铜铝锡价格走势。 铜观点：美联储议息会议将近，铜价⾼位震荡。 氧化铝观点：过剩状态未有明显改善，氧化铝价继续承压。 铝观点：宏观预期反复，铝价震荡回落。 铝合⾦观点：仓单延续回升，盘⾯⾼位震荡。 锌观点：社会库存下降，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：社会库存仍处低位，铅价随有⾊ ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in 2025 has been impacted by the tense US-China relations and trade conflicts, leading to a significant decline in textile and apparel export values [2] - Domestic consumption of textiles and apparel showed resilience with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.5% from January to October 2025, supported by government efforts to boost domestic consumption [2][20] - The outlook for 2026 is optimistic as the US and China reached a consensus on their relationship, and the Federal Reserve is expected to enter a rate-cutting cycle, which may enhance liquidity and support textile exports [2][21] Group 2: PX and PTA Market Dynamics - In 2026, both domestic PX production and demand are expected to increase, while imports may decline due to maintenance of old overseas facilities and new PTA production in India, leading to a supply-demand balance [2][66] - PTA production is projected to grow significantly in 2026 despite no new installations, as existing capacity can meet demand, although exports may decline due to new overseas production [3][79] - The processing fee for PTA is expected to gradually increase, especially in the second half of 2026, as new PX capacities come online [5][72] Group 3: MEG Market Insights - The MEG market in 2026 will see significant new installations, primarily in the second half of the year, leading to increased domestic pressure while imports may slightly decrease [6][7] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to experience inventory accumulation, while the second quarter will see maintenance activities, and the third quarter will likely witness a consumption peak [6] Group 4: Polyester Production and Demand - Polyester production capacity in China reached 89.84 million tons by December 2025, with a significant increase in production expected in 2026, albeit at a slightly lower growth rate than in 2025 [25][30] - The overall polyester production from January to October 2025 was 65.97 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.54% [32][41] - The export of polyester products saw a substantial increase of 15.2% year-on-year, with significant contributions from bottle chips and short fibers [41] Group 5: Price Trends and Market Strategy - PX prices are expected to fluctuate between $220 and $300 per ton in early 2026, with a potential drop to $200-$250 per ton in the second half as new capacities come online [5][66] - PTA processing fees are anticipated to range from 250 to 300 RMB per ton, with opportunities to buy on dips below 250 RMB per ton [5] - The overall market sentiment indicates a cautious approach with a focus on inventory management and strategic positioning in response to market fluctuations [5][72]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Considering the strong fundamentals, it is expected that tin prices will maintain a strong trend within the year. Hold existing long - positions and adopt a strategy of buying on dips. Pay attention to macro - end changes and supply - side fluctuations [1]. Zinc Industry - With the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the opening of export space, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, the downward space for prices is limited, and domestic zinc prices may be stronger than LME zinc prices. Pay attention to the TC inflection point and refined zinc inventory changes [4]. Copper Industry - In the short term, the imbalance in global copper supply and inventory drives copper prices to rise rapidly, with increased price volatility. In the long term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the bottom price center [6]. Aluminum Industry - Alumina prices are expected to remain at the bottom and fluctuate. The market's ability to rebound depends on the actual scale of enterprise production cuts and inventory changes. Aluminum prices are expected to maintain a strong trend in the short term, but beware of pull - back risks after reaching high levels [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate at low levels. If prices fall to the range of 8,500 - 8,700 yuan/ton, consider buying on dips. Hold existing long - positions if available [9]. Polysilicon Industry - Polysilicon futures may continue to fluctuate at high levels, but the probability of a decline to converge with spot prices is higher. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for the time being [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The casting aluminum alloy market is expected to maintain a narrow - range high - level oscillation in the short term. Pay attention to the improvement progress of scrap aluminum supply and the change in downstream procurement rhythm [11][12]. Nickel Industry - In the short term, the nickel market is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to changes in macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policy news [13]. Stainless Steel Industry - The stainless steel market is expected to oscillate and repair in the short term. Pay attention to steel mills' implementation of production cuts and raw material price changes [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry - The lithium carbonate market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the short term. Pay attention to the resumption of production by large enterprises and the sustainability of off - season demand [17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 314,000 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; SMM 1 tin premium remains unchanged at 50 yuan/ton [1]. - Yangtze 1 tin price is 314,500 yuan/ton, down 0.25% from the previous value; LME 0 - 3 premium remains unchanged at 70 dollars/ton [1]. Internal - External Price Ratio and Import Profit/Loss - Import loss is 15,329.05 yuan/ton, with a 7.76% increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.91 [1]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 350 yuan/ton, up 36.36% from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In October, tin ore imports were 11,632 tons, up 33.49% month - on - month; SMM refined tin production was 16,090 tons, up 53.09% month - on - month [1]. - Refined tin exports in October were 1,480 tons, down 15.33% month - on - month; Indonesian refined tin exports in October were 2,600 tons, down 45.83% month - on - month [1]. - SMM refined tin average operating rate in October was 66.81%, up 53.23% month - on - month; SMM solder enterprise operating rate in November was 73.80%, up 0.96% from the previous value [1]. Inventory Changes - SHEF weekly inventory is 6,865 tons, up 1.96% from the previous value; social inventory is 8,012 tons, up 2.39% from the previous value [1]. Zinc Industry Spot Prices and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price remains unchanged at 23,130 yuan/ton; the premium is 70 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Import loss is 4,330 yuan/ton, with a 549.10 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.45 [4]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - Refined zinc production in November was 59.52 tons, down 3.56% month - on - month; refined zinc imports in October were 1.88 tons, down 16.94% month - on - month [4]. - Refined zinc exports in October were 0.85 tons, up 243.79% month - on - month; galvanizing operating rate is 58.20%, up 1.66% week - on - week [4]. Inventory Changes - China's seven - region social inventory of zinc ingots is 13.60 tons, down 5.75% week - on - week; LME inventory is 5.8 tons, up 4.29% week - on - week [4]. Copper Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 0.78% from the previous value; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium is 130 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [6]. Fundamental Data - Electrolytic copper production in November was 110.31 tons, up 1.05% month - on - month; electrolytic copper imports in October were 28.21 tons, down 15.61% month - on - month [6]. Inventory Changes - Domestic social inventory is 16.03 tons, up 0.82% week - on - week; bonded - area inventory is 7.75 tons, down 12.82% week - on - week [6]. Aluminum Industry Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,920 yuan/ton, down 0.77% from the previous value; SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Price Ratio and Profit/Loss - Electrolytic aluminum import loss is 1,856 yuan/ton, with a 103 - yuan increase from the previous value; the Shanghai - LME ratio is 7.64 [8]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts AL 2512 - 2601 is - 25 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [8]. Fundamental Data - Alumina production in November was 743.94 tons, down 4.44% month - on - month; domestic electrolytic aluminum production in November was 363.66 tons, down 2.82% month - on - month [8]. Inventory Changes - China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 59.50 tons, down 0.17% week - on - week; LME inventory is 52.6 tons, down 0.47% day - on - day [8]. Industrial Silicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The price of East China oxygen - permeable S15530 industrial silicon is 8,300 yuan/ton, down 1.59% from the previous value; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon is 9,700 yuan/ton, down 1.02% from the previous value [9]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 8,675 yuan/ton, down 5,696.77% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - National industrial silicon production is 40.17 tons, down 11.17% month - on - month; Xinjiang industrial silicon production is 23.76 tons, up 0.83% month - on - month [9]. Inventory Changes - Xinjiang inventory is 12.38 tons, up 2.82% from the previous value; social inventory is 55.80 tons, up 1.45% week - on - week [9]. Polysilicon Industry Spot Prices and Basis - The average price of N - type re -投料 remains unchanged at 52,300 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type granular silicon remains unchanged at 50,000 yuan/kg [10]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spread - The main contract price is 54,545 yuan/ton, down 1.74% from the previous value; the spread between the current month and the first - continuous contract is 2,655 yuan/ton, down 16.51% from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Polysilicon production is 2.58 tons, up 7.50% week - on - week; polysilicon production in the month is 11.46 tons, down 14.48% month - on - month [10]. Inventory Changes - Polysilicon inventory is 29.10 tons, up 3.56% from the previous value; silicon wafer inventory is 21.30 tons, up 9.23% from the previous value [10]. Aluminum Alloy Industry Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,600 yuan/ton, down 0.46% from the previous value; the scrap - to - new price difference of Foshan crushed primary aluminum is 1,761 yuan/ton, down 2.92% from the previous value [11]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 68.20 tons, up 5.74% month - on - month; primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November was 30.27 tons, up 5.84% month - on - month [11]. Inventory Changes - Recycled aluminum alloy ingot weekly social inventory is 5.53 tons, down 0.54% from the previous value; the daily inventory of recycled aluminum alloy in Foshan is 35,326 tons, down 0.48% from the previous value [11]. Nickel Industry Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 120,200 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from the previous value; 1 Jinchuan nickel premium is 4,950 yuan/ton, up 1.02% from the previous value [13]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 170 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous value [13]. Supply - Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production is 33,345 tons, down 9.38% month - on - month; refined nickel imports are 9,741 tons, down 65.66% month - on - month [13]. Inventory Changes - SHFE inventory is 42,508 tons, up 4.23% week - on - week; social inventory is 26,848 tons, up 2.71% week - on - week [13]. Stainless Steel Industry Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,800 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous value; the price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,750 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous value [14]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2601 - 2602 is - 115 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (43 enterprises) is 178.70 tons, down 0.72% month - on - month; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude - steel production (Qinglong) is 42.35 tons, up 0.36% month - on - month [14]. Inventory Changes - 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 49.20 tons, down 2.06% week - on - week; 300 - series cold - rolled social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) is 29.82 tons, down 1.44% week - on - week [14]. Lithium Carbonate Industry Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 92,750 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the previous value; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 90,350 yuan/ton, down 0.50% from the previous value [17]. Monthly Spread - The spread between contracts 2512 - 2601 is - 80 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from the previous value [17]. Fundamental Data - Lithium carbonate production in November was 23,500 tons, up 3.35% month - on - month; lithium carbonate demand in November was 133,451 tons, up 5.11% month - on - month [17]. Inventory Changes - Lithium carbonate total inventory in November was 64,560 tons, down 23.36% month - on - month; lithium carbonate downstream inventory in November was 42,030 tons, down 21.13% month - on - month [17].

2025年12月9日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21939吨，环比增长0.33%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为103681吨，环比减少0.63%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为18842 吨，环比减少2.68%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为93764元/吨，日环比减少0.52%,生产所得为-1810元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为92638元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-2982元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿 石端，盈利 ...