1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 01 contract showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 8950 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 9100 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.68%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will increase, demand recovery will be at a low level, cost support will rise, and the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [4]. - For polysilicon, the 01 contract also showed an upward trend this week, with the Monday opening price at 52510 yuan/ton and the Friday closing price at 56410 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.43%. It is expected that next week, the supply-side production schedule will continue to decrease, overall demand will show a continuous decline, cost support will remain stable, and the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: This week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99%. The sample enterprise output was 48,725 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.36%. The expected monthly operating rate is 69.23%, an increase of 7.29 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Demand**: This week, the industrial silicon demand was 87,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.44%, and demand remained weak. In terms of polysilicon, the inventory was 261,000 tons, at the same level as the historical average. In terms of organic silicon, the inventory was 56,300 tons, lower than the historical average, and the production was in a loss state. In terms of aluminum alloy, the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots was 73,500 tons, higher than the historical average [5]. - **Cost**: The production loss of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory was 558,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.18%. The weekly sample enterprise inventory was 168,100 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.24%. The weekly major port inventory was 124,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.81% [10]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.40%. The forecasted production schedule for November is 120,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10.37% from the previous month [7]. - **Demand**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The battery cell output decreased month-on-month, and the component production was profitable but also showed a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N-type polysilicon in the industry was 37,990 yuan/ton, and the production profit was 14,260 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 261,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.16%, at a neutral level compared to historical periods [8]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Price - Basis and Delivery Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the SI main contract basis, the price difference between East China 421 and 553 silicon, etc., reflecting the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different grades of silicon [15]. - **Inventory**: It presents the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouse and port inventory, SMM sample enterprise inventory, and registered warrant volume, which helps to understand the supply and demand situation in the market [17]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, monthly production by specification, and capacity utilization rate, as well as the operating rate trends of sample enterprises in different regions, reflecting the production status of the industry [20]. - **Cost - Sample Region Trends**: It shows the historical trends of cost and profit for 421 silicon in Sichuan, 421 silicon in Yunnan, and oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang, reflecting the cost - profit situation of different regions and specifications [27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The report provides the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon, showing the supply, demand, import, export, and balance situations, which helps to understand the overall supply - demand relationship in the market [29][32]. - **Downstream Industries** - **Organic Silicon**: It includes the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC, as well as the price trends of downstream products such as 107 glue, silicone oil, etc., reflecting the operating conditions of the organic silicon industry [35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: It shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (related to the automotive and wheel hub industries) trends of aluminum alloy, reflecting the operating conditions of the aluminum alloy industry [44][48]. - **Polysilicon**: It includes the price, production, inventory, supply - demand balance, and the trends of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and related accessories, reflecting the operating conditions of the polysilicon industry and its downstream industries [52][55]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - **Industrial Silicon (SI)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bearish oscillatory adjustment [74][75]. - **Polysilicon (PS)**: The main 01 contract showed an upward trend this week. Technical indicators such as moving averages were used, and it is expected that next week, the market will likely experience a bullish oscillatory adjustment [76][77].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, Fed rate cuts, China-US talks, the Middle East situation, and crude oil price fluctuations. The cost side provides short-term support at the bottom, but due to insufficient supply-demand improvements, upward pressure remains high. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6900, while the PP main contract is expected to weaken with support at 6600. The LP spread is expected to widen [8][9] - Plastics still have supply-demand contradictions and are expected to move in a sideways pattern [10] - PP faces significant trend pressure and is expected to weaken in the short term [51] Summary by Directory Plastic Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,899 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.55%. The average price of LDPE was 9,136.67 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 2.92%. The average price of HDPE was 7,650 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 3.32%. The average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,421.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 1.70%. The South China basis of LLDPE closed at 522.76 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 31.68%. The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178) [12] Key Data Tracking - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -75 yuan/ton (-178), the 5-9 month spread was -53 yuan/ton (-39), and the 9-1 month spread was 128 yuan/ton (+217) [19] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of various polyethylene products in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [20][21] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [23] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PE was -357 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan/ton from the previous month, and the profit of coal-based PE was 201 yuan/ton, a decrease of 320 yuan/ton from the previous month [28] - **Supply**: The production start-up rate of polyethylene in China this month was 80.86%, a decrease of 0.98 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of polyethylene was 643,500 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.71%. The maintenance of petrochemical enterprise equipment remained at a high level this week, with a maintenance loss of 112,100 tons, an increase of 54,000 tons from last week [33] - **2025 Production Plan**: A total of 5.43 million tons of new polyethylene production capacity is planned to be put into operation in 2025, with some already in operation and some still under construction [36] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple polyethylene production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [38] - **Demand**: The overall start-up rate of domestic agricultural film this week was 49.53%, an increase of 16.67% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE packaging film was 51.30%, a decrease of 1.07% from the end of last month; the start-up rate of PE pipes was 32.17%, unchanged from the end of last month [39] - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 33.5%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level. The difference between the high-pressure film and the annual average data is significant, currently accounting for 8.8%, which is 1.8% different from the annual average level [43] - **Inventory**: The social inventory of plastic enterprises this week was 527,400 tons, a decrease of 7,400 tons from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 1.38% [45] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,706 lots, a decrease of 30 lots from the end of last month [48] PP Market Review - On October 31, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,590 yuan/ton, a decrease of 262 yuan/ton from the end of last month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.82% [52] Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices of various polypropylene products showed different degrees of change, with some prices rising and some falling [54][56] - **Basis**: On October 31, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Business Society was 6,723.33 yuan/ton (-2.84). The PP basis was 133 yuan/ton (+65), and the basis widened. The 1-5 month spread was -40 yuan/ton (-19), and the month spread narrowed [58] - **Month Spread**: The 1-5 month spread was -84 yuan/ton (-128), the 5-9 month spread was -19 yuan/ton (-85), and the 9-1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (+213) [63] - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at $60.88 per barrel, a decrease of $1.55 from the previous month, and Brent crude oil closed at $64.58 per barrel, a decrease of $1.57 from the previous month. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,090 yuan/ton (+10) [68] - **Profit**: The profit of oil-based PP was -606.91 yuan/ton, a decrease of 113.03 yuan/ton from the end of last month, and the profit of coal-based PP was -269.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 607.60 yuan/ton from the end of last month [73] - **Supply**: The start-up rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises this week was 77.06%, an increase of 1.54 percentage points from the end of last month. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 789,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.48%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 78,200 tons, a week-on-week increase of 4.82% [77] - **Maintenance Statistics**: Multiple PP production lines of various enterprises are under maintenance, with some having uncertain restart times [80] - **Demand**: The average start-up rate of downstream industries this week was 52.61% (+0.30). The start-up rate of plastic weaving was 44.20% (-0.20%), the start-up rate of BOPP was 61.57% (+0.16%), the start-up rate of injection molding was 59.06% (+0.72%), and the start-up rate of pipes was 36.807% (-0.07%) [82] - **Import and Export Profit**: The import profit of polypropylene this week was -$337.83 per ton, an increase of $208.99 from last month, and the export profit was -$31.12 per ton, a decrease of $23.89 from last month [87] - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of polypropylene this week was 595,100 tons (-6.80%); the inventory of the two major state-owned oil companies decreased by 9.19% month-on-month, the inventory of traders decreased by 2.91% month-on-month, and the port inventory decreased by 2.25% month-on-month [90] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,569 lots, an increase of 471 lots from the end of last month [103]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the content 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, transactions in early November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower at 01 - 75, and the price negotiation range was around 4485 - 4540. Transactions in mid - and late - November were at 01 - 70, with some slightly lower. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 71, considered neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4510, the basis of the 01 contract is - 76, and the futures is at a premium, considered neutral [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 4.03 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period, considered bullish [5]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, considered bullish [5]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: Affected by the industry anti - involution symposium and the full release of downstream polyester production, the PTA disk was significantly boosted, and the spot basis strengthened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term, and attention should be paid to device changes [5]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price center of ethylene glycol was weakly sorted out, and the market negotiation was average. The intraday ethylene glycol disk was narrowly sorted out, and the spot basis weakened in the afternoon. Next - week's spot transactions fell back to a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton over the 01 contract. In terms of US dollars, the outer - disk center of ethylene glycol was sorted out at a low level, and recent cargo negotiations were carried out at 482 - 486 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiations. The negotiation ranges for domestic and foreign transactions were 4087 - 4126 yuan/ton and 481 - 487 US dollars/ton respectively, considered neutral [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4111, the basis of the 01 contract is 93, and the futures is at a discount, considered neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 49.8 tons, a decrease of 1.7 tons compared to the previous period, considered bearish [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, considered bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: Net short position with an increase in short positions, considered bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Due to some contract merchants' active replenishment, the spot basis was at a high level this week. The supply surplus expectation persists, but there is weak support for MEG around 4000 yuan/ton on the disk. It is expected that the price center of MEG will be weakly sorted out in the near future, and attention should be paid to cost and device changes [6]. 3. Factors Affecting the Market - **Bullish Factors**: A 3 - million - ton PTA new device in East China was put into production last weekend and has now produced products [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: The 3.6 - million - ton load of Yisheng New Materials has been fully increased, and the loads of the 3.2 - million - ton device of Sanfangxiang and the 2.5 - million - ton device of Weilian Chemical have been increased [9]. 4. Current Main Logic and Risk Points - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the disk rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, import, export, and inventory data [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Shows the supply - demand situation of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, export, and inventory data [12]. 6. Price Data - Provides price data for PTA, MEG, and related products on October 31 and 30, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [13]. 7. Other Data - Also includes data on bottle - grade PET prices, production margins, capacity utilization, inventory, as well as data on PTA and MEG basis, spreads, inventory analysis, and polyester upstream and downstream operating rates [17][18][22][29][32][41][52][56]

Summary of Tianqi Materials Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tianqi Materials - **Industry**: Lithium battery materials, specifically focusing on electrolyte and cathode materials Key Points Sales and Profitability 1. **Electrolyte Sales**: In Q3, electrolyte sales remained high at approximately 190,000 tons, with a profit of around 800 RMB per ton despite price fluctuations [2][4] 2. **Cathode Material Sales**: Cathode material sales reached 32,000 tons, with losses narrowing compared to previous quarters. Expected monthly sales in Q4 are projected to exceed 15,000 tons, with an operating rate of 60%-70% [2][3] 3. **Net Profit**: The company reported a net profit of 150 million RMB in Q3, including 14 million RMB from non-recurring gains, marking significant year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth [3] Pricing and Market Dynamics 1. **Electrolyte Pricing**: The pricing of electrolytes is linked to lithium hexafluorophosphate (LiPF6) prices, with expected prices in November between 80,000 to 85,000 RMB per ton, and over 90,000 RMB in December [2][4] 2. **Fluoride Products**: The company plans to maintain the price of difluoride products to increase market application from 2% to 3%-4%. Current capacity is 50,000 tons, with plans to expand to 100,000 tons by 2027 [2][6] 3. **Solid Electrolyte Development**: Progress in solid electrolyte development is on track, with kilogram-level samples expected by the end of 2025 and a pilot production line for hundreds of tons next year [2][7] Expansion and Future Plans 1. **Overseas Projects**: The Moroccan project is set to begin construction in Q4 2025, with completion expected in early 2028. The U.S. project for 200,000 tons of electrolyte is also underway [3][8][9] 2. **Production Capacity**: Plans to increase lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity to over 100,000 tons next year, prioritizing internal demand [3][11] 3. **Phosphate Iron Expansion**: The company plans to expand phosphate iron production by 300,000 to 400,000 tons, with expectations of price increases next year [3][19] Market Conditions 1. **Industry Growth**: The industry is expected to grow by approximately 30% next year, with the company anticipating an increase in market share [3][15] 2. **Supply and Demand**: There is a current tight supply situation for electrolytes due to production issues and increased demand, but a balance is expected by November and December [3][20] 3. **Pricing Trends**: The company hopes to maintain lithium hexafluorophosphate prices between 100,000 to 110,000 RMB to ensure profitability [3][17] Challenges and Risks 1. **Cost Pressures**: The company faces potential short-term losses due to rising lithium hexafluorophosphate prices, but benefits from price declines [4][15] 2. **Market Competition**: Other high-cost producers like Wanhua and Lianhua have not yet resumed production, limiting their impact on the market [3][16] Additional Insights 1. **Customer Pricing Mechanism**: Pricing for customers is based on market averages, with discounts for long-term clients [3][27] 2. **Future Production Plans**: The company plans to start a 35,000-ton capacity project in mid-2026, contingent on market demand [3][24] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's performance, market dynamics, and future strategies in the lithium battery materials industry.

Report Information - Report Title: Spiral Ore Industry Chain Monthly Report - Report Date: October 31, 2025 - Author: Wang Nan - Company: AVIC Futures [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In November, the key agreement between China and the US is expected to continue to boost market sentiment, and the gradual formation of the 15th Five - Year Plan in China enhances the development confidence of the ferrous metal industry. However, after the macro - level benefits are realized, the market may return to the fundamental logic. The steel market still faces high - inventory pressure, and the resolution of the inventory contradiction may depend on production cuts. The iron ore market is expected to be in high - level oscillation, with prices first falling and then rising [83][86]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review - **Steel**: In October, steel prices continued to bottom out. At the end of the month, driven by positive macro - factors such as the expectation of Sino - US talks and the release of the 15th Five - Year Plan, steel prices gradually increased. Spot prices were relatively stable, with limited demand improvement and high inventory pressure in the peak season, and the later rise was mainly driven by macro - factors and cost support. The basis declined [5]. - **Iron Ore**: In October, iron ore prices fluctuated widely, first falling and then rising. Initially, they were dragged down by weak steel demand, concerns about increased arrivals and declining hot - metal production. But in late October, with the improvement of macro - expectations, iron ore prices rebounded and showed a stronger trend. The basis returned to normal [7]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis - **Overseas**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, bringing the federal funds rate target range to 3.75% - 4.00%, and decided to end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1. However, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish speech put pressure on the market, and the probability of a December interest - rate cut dropped to 67.8%. At the beginning of the month, the US federal government shutdown remained unresolved, and Sino - US trade frictions escalated, but then the two sides resumed negotiations, and the market risk appetite improved [10][11][12]. - **Domestic**: In the third quarter, China's GDP grew by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than expected. In September, the manufacturing PMI declined, indicating a weakening of domestic demand. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on building a modern industrial system, strengthening scientific and technological self - reliance, and expanding domestic demand, which will have a profound impact on the demand structure of bulk commodities [20][29][30]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis **Terminal Demand** - **Real Estate**: In September, real estate investment and sales remained weak. Investment, new construction, and completion areas all declined year - on - year, and housing prices continued to fall. The 15th Five - Year Plan aims to promote the high - quality development of the real estate industry, and it is expected that housing prices will stabilize and rebound in the future [37]. - **Infrastructure**: In 2025, the growth rate of infrastructure investment continued to decline. In September, the issuance of new special bonds decreased. The 15th Five - Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the improvement of infrastructure [40]. - **Automobile**: In September, China's automobile production and sales reached a record high for the same period. New - energy vehicles were the main driving force for market growth. The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" by eight departments provided support for the market [43]. - **Excavator**: In September, the production of excavators continued to grow. The domestic and foreign sales of construction machinery products increased year - on - year, benefiting from the equipment replacement cycle, policy support, and improved downstream demand [46]. - **Export**: In September, China's exports increased year - on - year, mainly due to the low - base effect and global demand resilience. However, with the increase in the base in October and the uncertainty of Sino - US tariff policies, export growth may decline. Steel exports still have price advantages but face challenges from trade barriers [47][48]. **Supply - Side** - **Production**: In the first nine months of 2025, China's crude - steel and pig - iron production decreased year - on - year. In October, the blast - furnace and electric - furnace operating rates of steel mills declined, and the production of hot - rolled coils remained at a high level [52][57]. - **Profit**: Recently, the prices of furnace materials have risen, and the profitability of steel mills has declined, but they have not reached the point of active production cuts [53]. - **Inventory**: In October, the steel market was in the peak season, but inventory did not decrease effectively. After the National Day holiday, the rapid resumption of production by steel mills and the slow release of terminal demand led to a rapid increase in the inventory of five major steel products. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory pressure needs to be alleviated [63]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar weakened, while that for hot - rolled coils still showed resilience [66]. - **Iron Ore Import and Shipment**: In September, China's iron - ore imports increased. In October, the global iron - ore shipment slowed down. The production and sales of the four major iron - ore mines in the third quarter were divergent, and the expected increase in the fourth quarter is limited [69][70]. - **Hot - Metal Production**: Since October, hot - metal production has declined slightly but remains at a high level. Due to the inventory accumulation of downstream steel products, there is an expectation of a further decline in hot - metal production, which may put pressure on iron - ore prices [75]. - **Inventory**: In October, port iron - ore inventory gradually accumulated, while steel - mill inventory decreased after a seasonal increase during the holiday [79]. 4. Future Outlook - **Steel**: In November, the steel market may return to the fundamental logic after the macro - level boost fades. The high - inventory problem needs to be solved, and the resolution may depend on production cuts. The demand for building materials is weak, and it is difficult to improve in the future [83]. - **Iron Ore**: In November, iron - ore prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, first falling and then rising. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the downstream steel - product inventory problem may lead to a decline in hot - metal production, but the iron - ore price decline is limited, and prices may rise with the increase in winter - storage demand [86].

Group 1: Market Review - In October, natural rubber showed a "first decline then rise" trend, while synthetic rubber was weak. The main contract of natural rubber (RU) had a monthly increase of 0.37% with a decrease of 444 hands in positions; the main contract of 20 - rubber (NR) had a monthly increase of 1.07% with a decrease of 11,713 hands in positions; the main contract of synthetic rubber (BR) had a monthly decrease of 4.73% with an increase of 13,654 hands in positions [6]. - After the National Day holiday, multiple macro - factors led to a significant increase in the "gold" sector, and industrial products were under pressure. Rubber followed the adjustment. After the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, the macro - expectation improved, and rubber recovered its previous decline. The synthetic rubber declined significantly due to the cost collapse caused by the sharp decline of butadiene [6]. Group 2: Data Analysis Natural Rubber Raw Material Price - As of October 30, the glue price in Thailand was 56 Thai baht/kg, the cup - glue price was 53.3 Thai baht/kg, the glue price in Yunnan, China was 14,100 yuan/ton, and the raw material price in Hainan was 13,100 yuan/ton. Since October, affected by rainfall, rubber tapping was difficult, and raw material prices were strong, providing cost support. In November, if rainfall eases, the upside of raw material prices is limited; otherwise, cost support remains [8]. Natural Rubber Import Volume - In September 2025, China's natural rubber import volume was 595,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.41% and a year - on - year increase of 20.92%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 4.7172 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19.65%. The top three import sources in September were Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia, with imports of 215,200 tons, 144,000 tons, and 55,600 tons respectively, all with significant month - on - month increases [10]. Rubber Inventory - As of October 24, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 68,705 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month but increased by 14,780.8 tons compared with the same period last year; the general trade spot inventory was 363,524 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and increased by 85,478.52 tons compared with the same period last year; the domestic third - party inventory was 1,038,951 tons, slightly decreased from the beginning of the month and decreased by 1,634 tons compared with last year. Overall, the domestic natural rubber inventory decreased in October, and the inventory structure continued to improve [13]. Butadiene Price and Production Profit of Butadiene Rubber - In October 2025, the domestic butadiene market price declined. The supply was expected to be loose, and the inventory of upstream and downstream enterprises increased, intensifying the supply - demand contradiction. The decline of butadiene price improved the production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises. As of the week of October 31, the theoretical production gross profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was 153.714 yuan/ton, an increase of 48.43 yuan/ton compared with the same period last year, and turned from loss to profit compared with the beginning of October [15]. Butadiene Rubber Inventory - In October, the output of butadiene rubber enterprises was 137,579 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,269 tons and a year - on - year increase of 26,703 tons. Due to limited downstream demand, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure to decline. As of the week of October 31, the inventory of sample butadiene rubber production enterprises was 27,200 tons, an increase from the beginning of the month and an increase of 3,400 tons compared with the same period last year. The inventory of traders continued to decline, but still increased compared with the same period last year [18]. Tire Export - In September 2025, China's truck and bus tire export volume was 400,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.86% and a year - on - year increase of 8.74%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 3.6279 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 6.67%. The export volume of passenger car tires was 260,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.28% and a year - on - year increase of 2.87%. The cumulative export volume from January to September was 2.5008 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.26% with a narrowing increase. The export of truck and bus tires to the EU decreased by 25.70% month - on - month and 23.58% year - on - year, and the export of passenger car tires to the EU decreased by 38.9% month - on - month and 22.9% year - on - year, mainly due to the EU's anti - dumping policy [19]. Tire Inventory - As of the end of October, the inventory turnover days of all - steel tires were about 39.01 days, a decrease of about 0.2 days compared with the same period last year, and the inventory turnover days of semi - steel tires were about 44.82 days, an increase of about 8.33 days compared with the same period last year. After the "Double Festival" holiday in October, tire enterprises resumed production, but due to trade frictions, the export orders faced pressure, and the overall inventory declined slowly. The inventory pressure of all - steel tires was relatively small, while that of semi - steel tires was large [21]. Tire Capacity Utilization - As of October 31, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 65.34%, a year - on - year increase of 6.15%. The capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.12%, a year - on - year decrease of 7.61%. After the holiday, the production capacity gradually recovered to the pre - holiday level. In the short term, the tire capacity utilization rate is expected to remain stable. The early snow in some areas stimulated the demand for snow tires, but the weak external demand and inventory pressure will limit the further increase of capacity utilization [23]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Macro - disturbances are expected to gradually decrease, and the market will return to fundamental expectation games - The short - term support from weather in rubber - producing areas exists, but the core contradiction is the combination of supply growth expectation and demand weakening risk. The seasonal supply increase due to improved weather in rubber - producing areas is the main pressure source. The EU's anti - dumping policy has led to a decline in tire exports, and domestic demand lacks bright performance. The cost collapse of synthetic rubber and its linkage effect will also drag down the price of natural rubber - In the short term, natural rubber will mainly fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the development of Sino - US trade relations and US tariff policies, the weather in Southeast Asian main - producing areas on the supply side, and the start - up rate of domestic tire enterprises, inventory de - stocking, and the progress of the EU's anti - dumping policy on the demand side [27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9055 - 9255 for the 2601 contract [3]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling will increase in the short - term and is expected to回调 in the medium - term. The demand side, including silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, is expected to recover in the medium - term. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 54160 - 55740 for the 2601 contract [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 101,000 tons, a 2.02% increase compared to the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 94,000 tons, a 27.03% increase compared to the previous week. Polysilicon inventory is at a high level, silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, components are profitable, organic silicon inventory is at a low level, and its production is in a loss state with a comprehensive operating rate of 70.05% and flat compared to the previous week, lower than the historical average [6]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3141 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On October 30, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 145 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.53% to 559,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.17% to 167,700 tons, and major port inventory increased by 2.50% to 123,000 tons [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 29,500 tons, a 4.83% decrease compared to the previous week. The scheduled production for October is expected to be 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, silicon wafer production was 14.73GW, a 2.64% increase compared to the previous week, and inventory was 184,700 tons, a 6.70% increase compared to the previous week. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. Battery cell and component production also have different trends in production and inventory, with components being profitable [8]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 36,050 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,950 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On October 30, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2600 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 258,000 tons, a 1.97% increase compared to the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net long, and long positions decreased [8]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and spot prices of different grades remained stable [15]. - Inventory data of different regions and types showed different trends, with some decreasing and some increasing [15]. - Production and operating rates of different regions also showed different changes [15]. Polysilicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed different degrees of decline or increase, and prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable or changed slightly [17]. - Inventory, production, and export data of different products also showed different trends [17]. 3.3 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends - The basis of industrial silicon and the spread between 421 and 553 grades showed different trends over time [19][20]. 3.4 Polysilicon Disk Price Trends - The disk price, trading volume, and basis of polysilicon showed different trends over time [22][23]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Inventory - Inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprises, showed different trends over time [25][26][27]. 3.6 Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The weekly production of sample enterprises in different regions and the monthly production by specification showed different trends over time [29][30][31]. - The operating rates of sample enterprises in different regions also showed different trends over time [32][34]. 3.7 Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends - The cost and profit of 421 in Sichuan, Yunnan, and oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang showed different trends over time [36][37]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon Weekly and Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Tables - Weekly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over time [38][39]. - Monthly: Displays the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon and its related products over different months [41][42]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon DMC Price and Production Trends - DMC's daily capacity utilization rate, profit, cost, production, and price showed different trends over time [44][45]. Downstream Price Trends - The prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 showed different trends over time [46][47][48]. Import - Export and Inventory Trends - DMC's import, export, and inventory showed different trends over time [51][52][53]. 3.10 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy Price and Supply Situation - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12, import cost, profit, and import - export situation showed different trends over time [54][55]. Inventory and Production Trends - The monthly production of primary and recycled aluminum alloy ingots, operating rates, and social inventory showed different trends over time [57][58]. Demand (Automobiles and Wheel Hubs) - The monthly production, sales of automobiles, and export of aluminum alloy wheel hubs showed different trends over time [59][60][61]. 3.11 Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon Fundamental Trends - The cost, price, inventory, production, operating rate, and demand of polysilicon showed different trends over time [64][65]. Supply - Demand Balance Table - Displays the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon over different months [67][68]. Silicon Wafer Trends - The price, production, inventory, demand, and net export of silicon wafers showed different trends over time [70][71]. Battery Cell Trends - The price, production, inventory, operating rate, and export of battery cells showed different trends over time [73][74]. Photovoltaic Component Trends - The price, production, inventory, and export of photovoltaic components showed different trends over time [76][77]. Photovoltaic Accessory Trends - The price, production, import - export of photovoltaic coatings, films, glass, quartz sand, and solder strips showed different trends over time [79][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - After the implementation of interest rate cuts and tariff policies, the copper market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The shortage of copper ore supply strengthens the price bottom, but short - term rapid price increases may suppress demand. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom, and the main contract should focus on the support around 87,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate. Macro factors such as Sino - US economic and trade consultations and domestic policies support market confidence, while the supply - demand structure shows that supply is restricted and demand has structural highlights. Alumina prices are expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term, with the main contract oscillating between 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton, and the market has shown signs of bottoming out [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market continues to oscillate at a high level. Cost support is prominent, supply is shrinking, demand is moderately recovering, and social inventory is accumulating. The price of ADC12 is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate. The supply is relatively loose, but the smelting profit is compressed, and the subsequent supply increase may be limited. The demand is generally stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze, which supports the zinc price. The main contract reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Tin prices may decline in the short term due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts. The supply of tin ore is tight, but the demand is weak. If the supply in Myanmar recovers well, tin prices may weaken; otherwise, they will continue to run strongly [11]. Nickel - The nickel market is expected to oscillate. Macro factors are stable, but the inventory is accumulating, and the medium - term supply is loose. The main contract reference range is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is expected to be weak and oscillate. Macro sentiment has improved, but downstream demand during the peak season is insufficient, and the supply side has pressure from production scheduling and social inventory. The main contract reference range is 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain strong in the short term. The downstream demand is better than expected, and the industry is continuously destocking. The main contract reference range is 83,000 - 87,000 yuan/ton [17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 88,065 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous day. The import profit and loss is - 883 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread shows different changes [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 112.10 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.31%. The import volume was 33.43 million tons, an increase of 7 million tons compared with the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.38% [1]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price is 21,200 yuan/ton, up 0.14%. The import profit and loss is - 2,515 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 760.37 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.74%. Electrolytic aluminum production was 361.48 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. The import volume increased by 13.57%, and the export volume increased by 13.07% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 21,300 yuan/ton, up 0.47%. The month - to - month spread shows different changes [5]. Fundamental Data - In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 66.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.48%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 28.30 million tons, an increase of 4.43%. The import volume of non - wrought aluminum alloy ingots increased by 15.77%, and the export volume decreased by 19.24% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 0.18%. The import profit and loss is - 4,757 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [8]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 60.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%. The import volume decreased by 11.61%, and the export volume increased by 696.78% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price is 284,000 yuan/ton, down 0.42%. The LME 0 - 3 premium is 10.02 US dollars/ton, down 74.95% [11]. Fundamental Data - In September, the import of tin ore was 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. The export volume increased by 6.59%, and the average operating rate decreased by 31.77% [11]. Nickel Price and Spread - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price is 122,200 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The import profit and loss is - 1,540 yuan/ton, and the month - to - month spread has different changes [13]. Supply and Inventory - The production of refined nickel products is 32,200 tons, an increase of 1.26%. SHFE inventory is 36,075 tons, an increase of 4.81%. Social inventory is 48,802 tons, an increase of 2.29% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) is 12,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference is 385 yuan/ton, up 25.40% [15]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) is 182.17 million tons, an increase of 0.38%. The import volume increased by 2.70%, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 1.07%. The basis is - 1,740 yuan/ton, down 5.45% [17]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. The import volume decreased by 10.30%, and the export volume decreased by 59.12% [17].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily analysis of the non - ferrous metals market on October 30, 2025, covering copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, cast aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate [1]. - It includes market reviews, important information, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each metal [1][2][3]. Group 2: Market Reviews Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 87,960 yuan/ton, down 0.1%, and the Shanghai copper index increased positions by 2,982 lots to 620,000 lots. LME closed at $11,090/ton, up 0.55%. Shanghai copper spot was at a discount of 55 yuan/ton [1]. Alumina - The alumina 2601 contract decreased by 28 yuan to 2,816 yuan/ton. The northern spot comprehensive price of alumina was 2,840 yuan, up 5 yuan [8]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract decreased by 10 yuan to 21,245 yuan/ton. Spot prices in East China, South China, and Central China were 21,190 yuan (up 30), 21,070 yuan (flat), and 21,050 yuan (up 10) respectively [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy 2512 contract increased by 100 yuan to 20,750 yuan/ton. The spot price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in various regions remained flat [24]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.13% to 22,365 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai zinc index increased positions by 4,449 lots to 214,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was 22,300 - 22,425 yuan/ton [31]. Lead - The Shanghai lead 2512 contract fell 0.06% to 17,350 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai lead index decreased positions by 2,688 lots to 119,800 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead was flat at 17,200 yuan/ton [37]. Nickel - The main contract of Shanghai nickel NI2512 decreased by 40 to 120,980 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 3,185 lots. The premium of Jinchuan nickel, Russian nickel, and electrowinning nickel changed to varying degrees [42]. Stainless Steel - The main contract of stainless steel SS2512 decreased by 50 to 12,725 yuan/ton, and the index decreased positions by 8,627 lots. The spot price of cold - rolled was 12,550 - 12,850 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled was 12,450 - 12,500 yuan/ton [50]. Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 283,600 yuan/ton, down 2,650 yuan/ton or 0.93%, and the position decreased by 2,185 lots to 72,249 lots. The average spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai was 284,000 yuan/ton, down 1,300 yuan/ton [55]. Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon decreased. The spot prices of different grades in various regions remained stable [89]. Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon increased. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon and related downstream product prices had minor changes [90]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate 2601 contract increased by 980 to 83,400 yuan/ton, and the index increased positions by 36,888 lots. The spot prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased [76]. Group 3: Important Information Macro - level - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and ended quantitative tightening, but Powell's hawkish remarks on December's interest - rate cut prospects reduced the market's expectation of a December rate cut from 95% to 65% [2]. - The Sino - US economic and trade teams reached a consensus, with the US canceling a 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods and suspending a 24% reciprocal tariff for another year [16][24][56]. Industry - level - Chile's state - owned mining company ENAMI obtained environmental approval for a new $1.7 - billion copper smelter [2]. - Some zinc mines in Southwest, North, and Central China have production adjustments such as maintenance and resumption of production [32]. - A large alumina enterprise in North China has two roasting furnaces under maintenance due to heavy pollution weather [9]. - Some electrolytic aluminum plants overseas and in China have production cuts [17]. - Some stainless steel mills plan to cut production to relieve the supply - demand contradiction in the fourth quarter [51]. - Indonesia closed 1,000 illegal mining sites [57]. - The production of some polysilicon plants in Southwest China will be reduced in November [69]. - China will suspend the implementation of lithium - battery and its material export control measures for one year [78]. Group 4: Logical Analysis Copper - Macroscopically, the dollar strengthened due to Powell's hawkish remarks, and the Sino - US leaders' meeting was slightly disappointing. Fundamentally, the supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of electrolytic copper in October is expected to decline. The consumption is weak, and the spot has turned to a discount [3][4]. Alumina - The supply and demand of alumina are still significantly in surplus. The market expects production cuts in the future, which drives the price to rebound slightly at a low level. However, the non - implementation of production cuts and the open import window suppress the rebound [11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Macroscopically, the market's expectation of a December Fed rate cut has decreased, and the Sino - US economic and trade consensus eases the risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, overseas production cuts intensify the supply - demand tension, and the domestic consumption has resilience [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Macroscopically, the Fed's hawkish remarks increase uncertainty, but the Sino - US trade negotiation is positive. Fundamentally, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the supply of the regenerative aluminum alloy industry is shrinking, and the demand is resilient, supporting the price [26]. Zinc - Domestically, the winter storage of smelters has increased, the processing fees have decreased, and some smelters may cut production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken. Overseas, the inventory is relatively low, and the LME zinc price is strong. The domestic export window is open [33]. Lead - Some lead - storage enterprises' orders have improved, but they have reduced production due to high lead prices. The supply side may increase production as the price of lead scrap has not risen significantly. The lead price may decline [39]. Nickel - The Fed's interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks have an impact. The LME nickel inventory is slowly increasing, and the supply - demand is loose. The price is supported by cost, and it will fluctuate widely [45]. Stainless Steel - The terminal demand in October is not optimistic, and it is the end of the peak season. The supply side has production cuts, the cost support is not strong, and the price has encountered resistance [51]. Tin - The Sino - US leaders' meeting result is slightly disappointing. The supply of tin mines is still tight, and the production of smelters in September decreased. The demand is slowly recovering, and the downstream procurement is cautious [57]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up rate of silicon plants in Northwest China is at a high level, and those in Southwest China will stop production at the end of the month. The demand for organic silicon and aluminum alloy is stable, and the production of polysilicon will be reduced in November. There may be inventory reduction [62]. Polysilicon - The production in Southwest China will be reduced in November. The demand is expected to be poor, but there is still resilience. The market will be in a tight - balance state in November. The old warehouse receipts' negative impact on the market is weakening [69]. Lithium Carbonate - The weekly production has decreased, and the inventory is being reduced. The fundamentals are healthy, attracting bullish funds. The price is expected to continue rising [78]. Group 5: Trading Strategies Copper - Unilateral: The medium - term upward trend continues. Adopt a strategy of buying on dips, but be cautious of short - term pullbacks when chasing high [5]. - Arbitrage: Hold cross - market positive arbitrage and arrange cross - period positive arbitrage after the domestic inventory starts to decline [6]. - Options: Wait and see [7]. Alumina - Unilateral: There is an expectation of further production cuts in November. The price will bottom out in the short term [12]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [13]. - Options: Wait and see [13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate upward after the market sentiment stabilizes [19]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [20]. - Options: Wait and see [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will follow the aluminum price to adjust due to macro - sentiment and then maintain a strong trend after stabilizing [27]. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - AD short - AL arbitrage [27]. - Options: Wait and see [27]. Zinc - Unilateral: Buy on dips. Pay attention to the export volume and the commissioning of new smelters in the North [34]. - Arbitrage: Advance the operation of buying SHFE and selling LME according to the export situation [34]. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Lead - Unilateral: Partially close profitable short positions. If the resumption and increase of production of regenerative lead smelters accelerate, the lead price may fall further [40]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [40]. - Options: Exit the position by taking profit on selling out - of - the - money call options [40]. Nickel - Unilateral: Fluctuate widely [46]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [47]. - Options: Sell a wide - straddle combination of the 2512 contract [48]. Stainless Steel - Unilateral: Recommend short - selling on rebounds [52]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [53]. Tin - Unilateral: Fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the Sino - US trade relationship [58]. - Options: Wait and see [59]. Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Hold short - term long positions and exit near the previous high [63]. - Arbitrage: None [63]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [63]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Partially reduce long positions to take profit and buy on dips later [72]. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [73]. - Options: Hold long call options [74]. Lithium Carbonate - Unilateral: Buy on dips [80]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [80]. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options [80].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views Copper - The central bank's interest rate cut and the upcoming Sino - US meeting are factors affecting the market. The shortage of copper ore supply supports the price bottom, and the psychological price ceiling of downstream buyers is rising. Although short - term price increases may suppress demand, in the long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is stabilizing at a low level, but the supply is abundant and the demand is weak, so the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term. The aluminum price is strong, with a tight - balance fundamentals, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost of aluminum alloy is rigidly supported, and the supply - demand is in a tight - balance. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but high inventory and policy uncertainties are constraints [5]. Zinc - The macro - environment is warm, and the supply of zinc is gradually increasing, but the increase may be limited. The demand is stable, and the LME has the risk of a short squeeze. The zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. Due to the hawkish statement on interest rate cuts, the short - term tin price may fall, but it may rise if the supply from Myanmar does not recover well [11]. Nickel - The macro - environment is improving, and the cost is supported by the firm ore price. However, the inventory accumulation restricts the price increase. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [13]. Stainless Steel - The macro - environment is positive, but the supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and fluctuate in the short - term [14]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are improving, with increasing demand and tight raw material supply. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term, but there is pressure at the 83,000 level [16]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.16% to 87,905 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to - 30 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the electrolytic copper production decreased by 4.31% to 112.10 million tons, and the import volume increased by 26.50% to 33.43 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.05% to 21,170 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 194.5 yuan/ton [3]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread increased by 5 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the alumina production decreased by 1.74% to 760.37 million tons, and the electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 3.16% to 361.48 million tons [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,200 yuan/ton, and the scrap - refined price difference in Foshan decreased [5]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 7.48% to 66.10 million tons, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 4.43% to 28.30 million tons [5]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.09% to 22,290 yuan/ton, and the import loss decreased by 205.67 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 15 yuan/ton to - 50 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the refined zinc production decreased by 4.17% to 60.01 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 11.61% to 2.27 million tons [9]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.32% to 285,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 60% [11]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 160 yuan/ton to - 550 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the tin ore import decreased by 15.13% to 8714 tons, and the SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% to 10,510 tons [11]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.20% to 121,900 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 226 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrowon nickel decreased by 0.62% to 116,448 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production increased by 1.26% to 32,200 tons, and the SHFE inventory increased by 4.81% to 36,075 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,950 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38% to 182.17 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 6.55% to 41.85 million tons [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.83% to 79,150 yuan/ton, and the 2511 - 2512 spread decreased by 320 yuan/ton [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the lithium carbonate production increased by 2.37% to 87,260 tons, and the demand increased by 12.28% to 116,801 tons [16].