——2025 年 5 月份金融数据点评 银行业 买入（维持） 2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业研究 信用扩张走向量价平衡 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 行业与沪深 300 指数对比图 资料来源：Wind 相关研报 如何看待 4 月社融与信贷"大劈叉"？——2025 年 4 月份金融数据点评 贷款投放超预期，关注需求修复持续性——2025 年 3 月份金融数据点评 2 月信用活动的"三组关系"——2025 年 2 月份金 融数据点评 1 月信贷"开门红"超预期——2025 年 1 月份金融 数据点评 社融增速触底回升——2024 年 12 月份金融数据点 评 年末贷款增长拖累因素增多——2024 年 11 月份金 融数据点评 货币增速筑底回升，静待政策"组合拳"显效—— 2024 年 10 月份金融数据点评 政策聚焦"房"与"股"，托举资产价格助力需求 修复——2024 年 9 月份 ...

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 4 月，新增社融 1.16 万亿（前值 5.89 万亿），新增人民币贷款 2800 亿（前值 36400 亿）。社 融存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.4% ）， M2 同比增长 8 % （前值 7% ），旧口径 M1 同比增长 -1% （前 值 -0.8% ）。新口径 M1 同比增长 1.5% （前值 1.6% ）。 核心观点 1 、从经济循环的视角来看， 4 月企业居民存款剪刀差仍在持续改善，经济的循环自 2024 年 9 月以来持 续修复。 2 、 2025 年开年前四个月，非银机构新增存款规模处于过去五年最高值，背后可能对应两个逻辑，一方面 是居民存款搬家逻辑，另一方面是稳定房市股市预期的背景下，央行加大投放稳定市场底部的逻辑。 3 、从贷款数据层面，当下贷款总量偏弱的背景下，结构上存在两个变化，对于居民而言，消费贷款趋势增 长，经营贷款趋势回落；对于企业而言，短期贷款趋势增长，中长期贷款趋势回落。 报告摘要 金融资产端的三个数据观察： ...

Group 1: Financial Asset Observations - In April 2025, new social financing amounted to 1.16 trillion RMB, a decrease from 5.89 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - The total amount of new RMB loans was 280 billion RMB, down from 3.64 trillion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 8.7%, compared to 8.4% in the previous period[1] Group 2: Loan Structure Changes - Since September 2024, there has been a continuous increase in consumer loans while operating loans have been declining[2] - For enterprises, short-term loans are increasing while medium to long-term loans are decreasing[2] - The proportion of medium to long-term loans in enterprise loans has decreased from approximately 76% in 2023 to about 62% in 2025[5] Group 3: Economic Cycle Indicators - The enterprise-resident deposit scissors difference improved from -14.7% in August 2024 to -8.4% currently, indicating a recovery in the economic cycle[6] - Non-bank institutions saw a strong increase in deposits, with a total of 2.2 trillion RMB added in the first four months of 2025, higher than previous years[6] Group 4: Government Leverage and Financing - In April, the net financing of government bonds was 972.9 billion RMB, an increase of 10.67 trillion RMB year-on-year[6] - The total social financing increment was 11.59 trillion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 12.25 trillion RMB[6] - M2 growth was 8% year-on-year, up from 7% in the previous month[6]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera is experiencing a tight market with active trading and significant liquidity, reflecting a structural contrast in credit expansion and economic policies in China [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of May 15, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF is priced at 100.54 yuan, with a turnover rate of 25.28% and a trading volume of 1.521 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [2]. - The ETF has reached a new high in scale at 6.028 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 59.9751 million, ranking in the top quarter among comparable funds [3]. - Over the past five days, the ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day inflow of 286 million yuan, totaling 515 million yuan, averaging 103 million yuan daily [3]. Group 2: Financial Metrics - The ETF has recorded a maximum drawdown of 0.89% since inception, with a recovery period of 26 days, indicating resilience in performance [3]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit percentage of 66.67% and a 100% probability of profit over a three-month holding period [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - As of April 2025, China's social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, with M2 balance growing by 8%, indicating a robust monetary environment [2]. - The average interest rate for new corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down by about 4 basis points from the previous month, maintaining a historically low level [2]. - The current economic policies are focused on expanding fiscal measures to stimulate consumption and investment, with potential for further monetary easing [2].

Core Viewpoint - The central viewpoint of the article emphasizes that the combination of loose monetary policy and fiscal efforts is supporting credit expansion, with M2 and social financing growth rates exceeding expectations, despite short-term pressures from local debts and external uncertainties [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of April, M2 balance reached 325.17 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8%, surpassing the market expectation of 7.2% [3]. - M1 balance stood at 109.14 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, with a slight decline in growth rate compared to the end of March [3]. - In April, the incremental social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, which is 1.22 trillion yuan more than the previous year [3]. - The cumulative social financing increment for the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year, with government bond net financing being a major support [3]. Group 2: Loan Structure and Trends - In the first four months, new RMB loans totaled 10.06 trillion yuan, remaining stable compared to the same period last year, with April alone contributing 280 billion yuan [3][10]. - Resident loans increased by 518.4 billion yuan, with medium to long-term loans (like mortgages) rising by 760.1 billion yuan, while short-term loans decreased by 241.6 billion yuan [10]. - Corporate loans increased by 9.27 trillion yuan, accounting for 92% of the total loan increment, with a rising proportion of medium to long-term corporate loans [11]. Group 3: Economic Support and Policy Implications - The financial data from the first four months indicates that the growth rates of social financing, M2, and RMB loans continue to exceed the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting strong financial support for the real economy [13]. - The central bank's counter-cyclical adjustment policies, such as interest rate cuts and structural tools, have facilitated monetary supply expansion, alongside accelerated government bond issuance [15]. - Government bond net financing for the first four months was 4.85 trillion yuan, contributing significantly to social financing growth [16]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Future Expectations - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was 3.2%, while the personal housing loan rate was 3.1%, both at historical lows [22]. - Market expectations suggest that the central bank will continue to maintain a loose environment through interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions, with a focus on stabilizing growth and promoting reasonable price recovery [23].