据央视新闻报道，近日，已经举起的关税大棒还没放下，美国又盯上了新的目标。根据白宫日前发布的联邦通告，美国商务部已根据1962年《贸易扩展法》 第232条，于本月初开始对进口商用飞机、喷气发动机和相关零部件启动为期270天的调查，以确定其是否有损美国"国家安全"。这一调查结果，可能导致美 国政府在已有的诸多关税措施之外加征新的关税。 报道称，特朗普对包括日本在内的主要贸易伙伴还采取了更高关税措施。根据政策，日本将从7月起面对高达24%的关税，除非在此之前与华盛顿达成协 议。美国的关税政策对日本汽车行业的打击最为沉重，因为汽车作为日本经济的支柱产业，在国际市场中的竞争力直接关乎日本的整体经济表现。日本政策 制定者和执政党议员一致认为，除非美国取消针对汽车进口的25%关税，否则与美国达成协议毫无意义。日本是首个与特朗普政府开启双边贸易谈判的主要 经济体，英美间却率先达成协议。 美日（资料图） 在日本同美国连续两轮贸易谈判未能达成共识之后，《日经亚洲评论》近日报道称，日本负责谈判的官员已释放出调整策略的信号：从一开始希望美方彻底 取消关税转向可以接受美方降低关税。《日经亚洲评论》还称，日美两国政府计划在本周于加拿大举 ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-23 特朗普税收法案通过众议院，美国财政赤字担忧加剧 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进 口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同）， 对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月19日，中国 央行表示将抓好一揽子货币金融政策措施的落实和传导。5月20日，中国央行将一年期和五年期贷款市场报价利率 (LPR)分别从3.1%与3.6%下调至3%和3.5%。中国央行5月23日将开展5000亿元MLF操作。5月9日—12日何立峰副总 理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商 机制。重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对该事件敏感的商品。5月15日商务部例行发布会回应中方对美关税反制 措施调整，称因美方撤销对华加征关税而相应调整，并表明对中美经贸磋商机制持开放态度，双方将依日内瓦会 谈共识保持沟通。此外中方再次敦促美方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral overall, waiting for fundamental verification [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification. After the implementation of a package of financial policies, China's overall foreign trade in April slightly exceeded expectations, but there were differences in exports by country/region and product type. The central bank adjusted the LPR, and various economic and trade events occurred, including the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the adjustment of tariff counter - measures [1] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The "tax rate + quota" restriction idea between the UK and the US may impact global trade, and it is related to the negotiation process with other countries. The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short - term and stagflation allocation in the long - term. Different types of commodities have different price trends affected by factors such as tariffs and supply - demand relationships [3] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. By country/region, exports to the US decreased by 21% (previous value 9.1%), and exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8% (previous value 11.6%). By product, labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.7% (previous value 9.1%) [1] - On May 19, the central bank stated it would implement and transmit a package of monetary and financial policies. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one - year and five - year LPR to 3% and 3.5% respectively [1] - On May 21, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill". China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version [1][6] - From May 9 - 12, Vice - Premier He Lifeng held talks with the US during his visit to Switzerland. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, with both sides promising to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism. The Ministry of Commerce adjusted counter - tariff measures due to the US revocation of additional tariffs on China and maintained communication based on the Geneva talks consensus [1] - Before July, the macro - economy is expected to focus more on economic fact verification, especially whether there will be a new round of "rush to export" after the tariff negotiations [1] Impact of US Tariff Policies - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction idea. The UK's exports to the US will face a minimum 10% tariff, and specific products may have export limits. For example, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the US each year will be taxed at an additional 10% tariff rate, and the excess will be taxed at 25% [2] - The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are discussing a "three - stage" trade agreement and expect to reach a temporary agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][5] - The US Department of Commerce strengthened export controls on China's AI - related products. China's Ministry of Commerce responded that implementing US measures would be suspected of being illegal [2] - The expected pressure on long - term inflation may be revised downwards. The US CPI data in April was lower than expected, indicating a further easing of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end. The Fed may adjust the interest rate - setting framework, and the short - term expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is under pressure [2] Commodity Market Analysis - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of the US stock market adjustment. Agricultural products have relatively stable demand, and tariffs are more likely to cause upward price fluctuations [3] - In the energy sector, the IEA lowered the forecast for this year's oil demand, and OPEC+ plans to increase production, resulting in a relatively loose supply in the medium - term fundamentals. The EU plans to ban the import of Russian natural gas and LNG by the end of 2027 and impose new sanctions on Russia [3] Important News - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Legislative Council passed the "Stablecoin Ordinance Bill" to improve the regulatory framework for virtual asset activities [6] - China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 version, taking a key step towards signing the upgrade protocol [6] - Japan is considering accepting a US tariff reduction; India and the US are expected to reach a temporary trade agreement before early July; South Korea is in the process of foreign exchange negotiations with the US [2][6] - The US House of Representatives reached an agreement on raising the SALT deduction cap, removing a key obstacle to the Trump tax cut bill [6] - US Treasury yields rose, causing the yield curve to steepen. The dollar weakened against major currencies, oil prices rose, and spot gold reached $3320 per ounce [2] - The EU and the UK imposed new sanctions on Russia, and Chinese and UAE companies were included in the sanctions list. The EU plans to levy a €2 tax on small parcels entering the EU [3][5] - China expressed concerns about the US "Golden Dome" anti - missile system, stating that it violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space and exacerbates the risk of outer - space militarization [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, focus on the verification of economic facts. After the Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US, pay attention to whether there will be a new round of "rush to export". The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising, and the "tax rate + quota" restriction model may impact global trade. For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the short term and stagflation allocation in the long term [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Bureau, One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year-on-year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year-on-year, slightly exceeding expectations. However, exports to the US decreased by 21% year-on-year, while exports to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor-intensive product exports were significantly impacted. On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs to 3% and 3.5% respectively. The one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Geneva economic and trade talks between China and the US achieved substantial progress, and both sides promised to suspend some additional tariffs and establish a consultation mechanism [2] - The risk of further US tariff escalation is rising. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + quota" restriction model. The impact on global trade depends on the negotiation process with other countries. The US Treasury Secretary warned that if no trade agreement is reached before the tariff suspension period expires in early July, tariff rates will return to previous levels. The US 30-year Treasury yield rose to its highest level since November 2023. The Japanese 20-year bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year [2] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [3] To-Do News - On May 20, the central bank lowered the one-year and five-year LPRs by 10 basis points. The Hong Kong one-month Hibor fell below 1% for the first time since 2022, and the Hong Kong dollar is set to record its largest monthly decline since 1983. The Atlanta Fed President Bostic expects the Fed to cut interest rates only once in 2025 and may act earlier if the tariff negotiations make progress. The BIS warned that if investors unwind positions in the $113 trillion foreign exchange swap market, it may trigger a scramble for the US dollar. The Japanese 20-year government bond auction demand dropped to its lowest level since 2012, and the 30-year yield reached a new high since 1999. The Bank of Japan will maintain the current Japanese government bond reduction plan after the spring of the 2026 fiscal year. Putin said that Russia favors a peaceful solution to the Ukraine crisis after a call with Trump [2][5] Macroeconomic - The report includes charts such as the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 large and medium-sized cities' commercial housing transaction area (weekly and daily), five listed steel consumption volumes, 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6] Interest Rates - The report includes charts of the 10Y and 2Y China-US Treasury yield spreads [6][15] Foreign Exchange - The report includes charts of the US dollar exchange rate against major currencies on a weekly basis, US dollar index trend, and interest rate corridor [6][17]

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical situation is increasing demand for safe-haven assets, leading to a bullish outlook for gold prices, which have shown strong rebounds recently [1][3][8]. Market Performance - On May 20, gold prices opened at $3,230.66 per ounce, dipped to a low of $3,204.50, and then surged to a high of $3,295.52, closing at $3,289.70, marking a daily increase of $59.04 or 1.83% [1][3]. - The daily trading range was $91.02, indicating significant volatility and bullish momentum [1]. Geopolitical Influences - The announcement of new sanctions against Russia by the EU and the UK, along with tensions surrounding Iran, have heightened market concerns, driving up gold prices [3][8]. - Ongoing geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to provide long-term support for gold prices [8]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has fallen below short-term moving averages, which may provide further support for gold prices [3][8]. - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating and IMF's forecast of slower U.S. economic growth compared to global growth are contributing to a decline in the dollar's attractiveness [8]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are currently above the 5-10 month moving averages and are showing signs of a potential upward trend, with a focus on the $2,900 to $3,500 range for future movements [10][12]. - The daily chart indicates a rebound from key support levels, suggesting a bullish outlook for the near term [12][13]. Trading Strategy - Suggested trading levels include support at $3,275 or $3,255 and resistance at $3,330 or $3,350 for gold [12]. - For silver, support is noted at $32.90 or $32.75, with resistance at $33.35 or $33.70 [12].

日本或接受美国下调关税税率，以打破日美贸易谈判僵局。 5月20日周二，日本共同社援引参与谈判的未具名人士的话报道，日本正考虑接受美国下调关税税率，而非坚持要求美 国完全取消关税，尤其是在汽车、钢铁和铝产品等重点产品上。 此前据央视新闻，4月初，美国启动了第一轮对等关税措施，不仅征收10%的普遍关税，还对进口汽车零部件征收25%关 税，导致全球化受到一定冲击。 消息公布后，美元兑日元走高，截至发稿几近持平，此前一度跌超0.5%。 日本打算观察美方反应，慎重决定 在此前的谈判中，日方原本希望美方取消对汽车等的追加关税，但美国总统特朗普对于全面撤销关税持消极态度。美方 一直拒绝撤销关税，并表示不打算将日本最关心的汽车、钢铁和铝制品附加关税纳入谈判范围，这让日本感到压力。 但另一方面，美国已经和中国、英国等国家达成了多项关税降低协议。此前5月12日，据中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声 明，美国和中国宣布暂时削减关税。据央视新闻，当地时间5月8日，英国和美国就关税贸易协议条款达成一致。英国汽 车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至10%。 为了打破当前日美谈判僵局，日本正在考虑接受降低关税税率作为一种妥协方案。不过，目前日本政府 ...

黄金开盘受到阻力压制，以及隔夜尾盘的震荡回撤之力，先行表现走弱； 另外，本周数据较少，影响有限，走势将继续依托关税贸易及地缘局势方向的指引进行波动。其在两者 不确和变化无常的情况下，金价将维持震荡走盘并偏走强，反之如表现缓和乐观，金价将回落再探上升 趋势线支撑位置。 日图；金价在如期触及上升趋势线支撑和60日均线支撑位置展开反弹，虽然未能进一步延续动力走强攀 升，但连续收取的触底形态，则暗示后市仍有进一步向上突破阻力的预期，那么后市在不跌破60日及上 升趋势线支撑前，仍将继续等待打破近日调整行情反弹走强。 分析；日内无重点关注数据及事件，可留意次日凌晨1点的2025年FOMC票委、圣路易联储穆萨莱姆就 经济前景和货币政策发表讲话。根据之前表达的，通胀上行与就业市场走弱风险并存，货币政策需保持 警惕的不确定前景观点来看，预计也仍对金价产生一定的利好。 另外，美元指数日图开盘，也延续昨日尾盘回升之力，先行表现走强，对其产生压力，整体上，走势维 持近期的震荡上行趋势发展，目前未能跌破支撑，而仍有继续走强触及200日均线阻力目标的预期，而 会对金价造成压力，使其维持震荡走盘。 但由于周图，上周冲高回落，有暗示反弹触顶 ...

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and trade risks, with prices currently stabilizing around key support levels while awaiting a stronger upward movement [1][4][9]. Price Movement - On May 19, gold opened at $3218 per ounce, reached a low of $3206.49, and a high of $3249.60, closing at $3230.09, marking a daily increase of $12.09 or 0.38% [1]. - Compared to the previous week's closing price of $3198.78, gold rose by $31.31, reflecting a 0.98% increase [2]. Geopolitical and Economic Influences - The market is influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions and President Trump's comments on the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, alongside Moody's downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating, which has heightened market risk aversion [4][9]. - The potential for renewed negotiations between Russia and Ukraine has reduced immediate demand for gold as a safe haven, contributing to price volatility [4][9]. Technical Analysis - The monthly chart indicates a strong resistance level, with the price remaining above the 5-10 month moving averages and a significant trendline support [6][11]. - The weekly chart shows that gold has not breached the 10-week moving average, suggesting a potential for a wide-ranging consolidation phase, with a focus on the $3100-$3440 range [13]. - The daily chart indicates that gold has rebounded from the ascending trendline and 60-day moving average support, with expectations for further upward movement as long as these support levels hold [15]. Market Outlook - The overall sentiment remains cautiously optimistic for gold prices to strengthen in the future, despite the current lack of strong bullish catalysts [8][9]. - The market will continue to be influenced by trade agreements and geopolitical developments, with gold expected to maintain a volatile trading pattern [6][9].

张尧浠：关税出尽地缘风险升级、金价回踩支撑待涨攀升 黄金市场上周：国际黄金触底回升收线，未能跌破10周均线及上升趋势线支撑，故此后市，则有望维持在此支撑上方宽幅区间震荡，或者再度走强攀升。 具体走势上，金价自周初低开34美金至3294.82美元/盎司，便直接先行录得当周高点3305.91美元，之后连续走低跳水，于周四触及趋势线看涨支撑及60日 均线支撑等交点处，也既是当周低点3120.73美元，触底回升，强势拉升反弹，但仍遭遇一定阻力，而周五仍有所走弱运行，最终收于3198.78美元； 相对于开盘价，周振幅185.18美元，收跌96.04美元，跌幅2.91%。 相对于前周收盘价3328.85美元，周振幅208.12美元，收跌130.07美元，跌幅3.91%。 影响上，受到周末中美关税合谈和地缘局势乐观消息的影响，金价当周大幅低开并维持走低，之后，又在美国与其他国家的贸易关税协议接近达成，贸易 乐观情绪继续升温，以及美国表示不会在关税谈判中寻求弱势美元，打压金价进一步走低触及当周低点； 但由于关税压力影响有限，触及的低点又是强劲的看涨支撑，同时，美国4月CPI年率下降，提升了年内的降息预期，特朗普继续呼吁降息， ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-13 中美谈判取得实质性进展,市场情绪回暖 市场分析 短期关注经济事实验证。5月7日，"一行一局一会"出台一揽子金融政策提振经济，央行推出三大类共十项货币政 策措施，包括降准0.5个百分点，降低政策利率0.1个百分点，创设新的政策工具等；金融监管总局将推出八项增量 政策，涉房地产金融、险资入市、稳外贸等；证监会表示将"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，稳步推进市场对外开放。 值得注意的事，4月我国出口同比增长8.1%，进口同比下降0.2%，整体略超预期，但分国别或区域来看，4月出口 当月同比中，对美国-21%（前值为9.1%，下同），对东盟20.8%（11.6%）；分产品来看，劳动密集型产品出口受冲 击明显，当月同比-1.7%（9.1%）。5月9日—12日何立峰副总理于瑞士访问期间与美方举行会谈，中美日内瓦经贸 会谈取得实质进展，双方承诺暂停部分加征关税并建立协商机制，推动市场情绪显著回暖，A股主要股指高开高走 且逾4100股上涨；亚太股市普遍收涨，短期需持续关注中美谈判落地进展，重点关注原油，集运指数，黄金等对 该事件敏感的商品。 关注全球贸易政策博弈。5月8日，英国和美国宣布已经 ...