Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for precious metals in the short term, with potential for recovery in the medium to long term [1][3][8]. Core Insights - The precious metals sector is currently under pressure due to tightening liquidity expectations from the Federal Reserve, but concerns over "stagflation" may enhance gold's safe-haven appeal in the medium term [1][3][9]. - The energy and chemical sector is experiencing heightened volatility due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, suggesting a cautious approach to asset allocation in this area [1][4][19]. - The black metal sector, represented by iron ore, is less sensitive to geopolitical issues and is more influenced by domestic macro policies, indicating a potential for a fluctuating market [1][16]. - Industrial metals are facing downward pressure from tightening liquidity and stagflation expectations, although aluminum prices may remain relatively strong due to supply disruptions [1][14]. - Agricultural products are expected to see increased shipping costs due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, with certain commodities like soybean oil potentially offering better value compared to industrial metals [1][21]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The South China precious metals index has decreased by 13.73% over the past two weeks, with gold and silver prices also declining significantly [3][8]. - Historical data from the 1970s oil crises shows that while gold and silver may initially drop in value, they tend to rebound over longer periods [9][12]. Energy and Chemicals - The South China energy and chemical index has increased by 1.52% recently, but geopolitical factors remain a significant risk for oil prices [4][19]. - Brent crude oil prices have shown fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing geopolitical tensions affecting supply chains [19]. Black Metals - The South China black metal index has risen by 0.63%, with iron ore prices showing stability amidst mixed domestic demand signals [16]. Industrial Metals - The South China non-ferrous metal index has decreased by 2.05%, with copper and aluminum prices under pressure due to rising energy costs and geopolitical tensions [14][19]. Agricultural Products - The South China agricultural index has seen a decline of 3.03%, with soybean oil prices expected to remain strong due to their role as a substitute for fossil fuels [21].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [5]. Core Views - The Middle East geopolitical situation is a key factor affecting global aluminum prices, with recent production cuts and damages in Middle Eastern aluminum plants expected to provide upward momentum for prices [3][40]. - The domestic copper market shows decent fundamentals, with potential support for copper prices as some smelters may enter maintenance periods [3][34]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the speed of steel inventory reduction, which could boost steel prices if seasonal demand expectations are validated [5][17]. Industry Summary Steel - The production of five major steel products has slightly decreased, with total inventory also declining, indicating a potential for price increases if demand strengthens [17][25]. - As of March 27, the capacity utilization rate for blast furnaces was 86.63%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points from the previous week [22]. Copper - The global refined copper market experienced a surplus of 17,000 tons in January 2026, down from a surplus of 168,000 tons in December 2025, indicating a tightening supply situation [34]. - On March 27, the LME copper spot price was $12,000 per ton, reflecting a 0.20% increase from the previous week [37]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum spot price on March 27 was $3,300 per ton, a decrease of 1.11% from the previous week, while domestic aluminum inventory continues to accumulate [41]. - The report anticipates that the aluminum price may remain strong in the short term due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the gradual release of domestic demand [40]. Precious Metals - Gold prices are currently under pressure due to high oil prices, but there is potential for a rebound if geopolitical tensions ease or inflation concerns diminish [46]. - As of March 27, the COMEX gold closing price was $4,521.30 per ounce, a 0.65% increase from the previous week [46]. New Energy Metals - Concerns over potential production cuts in Australian lithium mines due to energy issues may lead to a supply shortage, with lithium carbonate prices rising to 159,500 yuan per ton [52]. - The report emphasizes the need to monitor production dynamics in Australia and export policies in Zimbabwe [51]. Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The rare earth market is facing pressure due to weak demand from downstream enterprises, with prices expected to remain volatile [66]. - As of March 27, the price of light rare earth oxide neodymium praseodymium was 712,500 yuan per ton, reflecting a 1.42% increase from the previous week [66].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent upward trend in gold prices, attributing it to geopolitical tensions and changing market perceptions regarding inflation and Federal Reserve policies [1][2]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - Gold prices began to stabilize and rise from March 27, following a period of pressure due to military actions in the Middle East [2]. - Initial declines in gold prices were driven by liquidity issues, including margin calls and the attractiveness of the dollar as a safe haven compared to gold [2]. - As the expectation of prolonged conflict in the Middle East grows, the market is shifting towards viewing gold as a "ultimate safe haven" asset [2]. Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have increased demand for gold as a hedge against uncertainty [2]. - The risk of "stagflation" in the U.S. economy due to prolonged conflict could further support gold prices [2]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies - The market previously misjudged the likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, which requires specific economic conditions to be met [3]. - The Federal Reserve's recent actions, including a series of interest rate hikes starting in March 2022, aimed to combat high inflation, which peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 [3]. - In a recent speech, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that despite energy shocks from the Middle East, long-term inflation expectations remain stable, which may lead the market to price in potential rate cuts this year, providing further support for gold [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical pricing in the second quarter of the stock index has changed from chaos to clarity. The Middle - East situation is becoming more complex, and the war situation will affect the fundamentals of equity assets. It is expected that the US and Iran will go through a process of "war expansion - negotiation and compromise" in the second quarter. A - shares may experience a V - shaped trend in the second quarter. In the short term, the A - share bull market is tested, but in the medium term, the technology industry represented by artificial intelligence is still the main line of the A - share bull market. It is recommended to go long on the IM futures with higher technology content on dips [92] - High oil prices will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs, and have an impact on China's imports and exports, inflation, and economic growth. The PPI and CPI are expected to rise, and the global economic growth is predicted to decline [21][53][67] - The Chinese government is taking measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic structural adjustment, such as increasing investment in infrastructure and adjusting policies on consumption and investment [79] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 China - Iran and China - Persian Gulf Seven - Country Trade - Iran's direct trade volume with China is small, with a trade surplus of less than $4 billion. After the US sanctions in 2018, the direct trade between China and Iran decreased [5] - China's exports to the eight countries including Iran and the seven Persian - Gulf countries have been increasing in the past five years. In 2025, the total export amount to the eight countries was $169.27 billion, accounting for 4.3%. China's imports from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounted for 6.1% of the total imports, and the trade deficit turned positive in 2025, reaching $5.7 billion [6][16] - If trade with the seven Persian - Gulf countries is interrupted, China's exports will decrease by 4.3% and imports by 6.1%. China's import dependence on these countries is mainly concentrated in crude oil, natural gas, chemical raw materials, and plastic products, and some products have a share of over 20%. The export of carpets, textiles, motor vehicles, steel products, and electromechanical products may be damaged [25][29] 3.2 Energy and Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is crucial for China. About 200 - 210 million barrels of crude oil pass through it every day, accounting for about 20% of the world's seaborne oil. The liquefied natural gas transportation accounts for about 20% of the world, and the methanol transportation accounts for about 35% of the world. The closure of the strait will lead to an increase in global energy and trade costs [21] - Crude oil accounts for 18.2% of China's total energy consumption, and the external dependence is about 72%. The crude oil imported from the seven Persian - Gulf countries accounts for about 40% of the total imported crude oil. China's oil reserves can support about 100 days. If the war persists and the strait is blocked, it will impact the economic growth [34] - Before the US - Iran war, the global equity assets were in a bull market. After the war, the global risk assets were under pressure, and the stock markets generally declined. In March, only the energy and mineral sectors rose, while the technology stocks and HALO assets fell significantly [38][46] 3.3 A - share Market Performance - In March, A - shares fell in line with the global stock markets. The rising sectors include energy (coal, power utilities, and new energy), defense (banks, public utilities), and AI infrastructure (communications). The falling sectors are mainly HALO heavy - hitters such as non - ferrous metals, steel, and building materials, concept stocks such as military industry, and technology stocks such as media and computer [49] - At the tertiary industry level, coal chemical industry, lithium batteries, new energy power generation, and optical communications performed well [50] 3.4 Inflation and Economic Growth - The increase in oil prices has led to an unexpected rise in PPI and CPI. In March, the PPI is expected to approach 0 year - on - year, turn positive in the second quarter, and the annual central level will rise to about 0.5%, 1.5% higher than the initial forecast. The CPI is expected to rise to about 1%, 1% higher than the initial forecast [60] - China's exports increased significantly in the first two months, but the impact of the US - Israel - Iran conflict on the global economy will be apparent from the second quarter. The OECD estimated in March that the GDP growth rate in the four quarters of this year will decline by 0.12, 0.23, 0.31, and 0.33 percentage points respectively compared with the February forecast [67] - China's economic growth is more dependent on foreign trade, and domestic demand is weak. The fiscal stimulus in 2026 is limited, and the incremental content is mainly in policy - based financial instruments and special funds for expanding domestic demand [72] 3.5 Policy and Industry Development - The government's work report in 2026 emphasizes building a strong domestic market, with a re - balance between consumption and investment, and an increase in support for fixed - asset investment. The positions of rural revitalization, new urbanization, and improving people's livelihood are advanced [79][80] - The National Development and Reform Commission will invest more than 7 trillion yuan in "six networks" and key areas this year, and the scale of artificial - intelligence - related industries will exceed 10 trillion yuan by the end of the 15th Five - Year Plan. The Ministry of Commerce focuses on service consumption, the central bank focuses on supporting domestic demand, innovation, and small and medium - sized enterprises, and the Ministry of Finance provides loan interest subsidies for individuals and enterprises [84] - Although the valuation of technology stocks is still high, their structure is relatively healthy after the profit upward revision and valuation downward revision in the fourth quarter of last year. The non - technology stocks have relatively mild changes in valuation and profit. The policy support for the technology industry is obvious [91]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are oscillating and consolidating. Powell's dovish signals have alleviated concerns about interest rate hikes this year. The core drivers of the recent precious metals adjustment are the downward revision of interest rate cut expectations and liquidity shocks. In the long - term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to elevated geopolitical risks, concerns about the US fiscal sustainability, and the ongoing de - dollarization process. Gold has a long - term upward trend, while silver, platinum, and palladium follow the overall sector with greater volatility [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: For沪金 2606, the previous day's closing price was 998.66, yesterday's closing price was 1014.88 with a rise of 16.22 (1.62%); for沪金 2604, the previous day's closing price was 995.180, yesterday's closing price was 1011.020 with a rise of 15.840 (1.59%). The持仓量 of沪金 2606 was 180953 and the trading volume was 393515. The现货 - futures spread was - 5.92 for沪金 2606 and - 2.06 for沪金 2604 [2]. - **Silver Futures**: For沪银 2606, the previous day's closing price was 17489, yesterday's closing price was 17707 with a rise of 218 (1.25%); for沪银 2604, the previous day's closing price was 17558, yesterday's closing price was 17756 with a rise of 198 (1.13%). The持仓量 of沪银 2606 was 233885 and the trading volume was 1060304. The现货 - futures spread was - 147 for沪银 2606 and - 196 for沪银 2604 [2]. Spot Market - **Gold Spot**: Shanghai gold T + D's previous day's closing price was 992.45, yesterday's closing price was 1008.96 with a rise of 16.51 (1.66%); London gold's previous day's closing price was 4493.36, yesterday's closing price was 4513.52 with a rise of 20.16 (0.45%) [2]. - **Silver Spot**: Shanghai silver T + D's previous day's closing price was 17467, yesterday's closing price was 17560 with a rise of 93 (0.53%); London silver's previous day's closing price was 69.73, yesterday's closing price was 70.04 with a rise of 0.32 (0.45%) [2]. Inventory - **Gold Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold was 106,644 kg, unchanged from the previous value; the current COMEX gold inventory was 31,536,505 troy ounces, a decrease of 177023 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. - **Silver Inventory**: The current inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange silver was 374,427 kg, an increase of 2628 kg from the previous value; the current COMEX silver inventory was 327,589,421 troy ounces, a decrease of 707943 troy ounces from the previous value [2]. Related Markets - The current value of the US dollar index was 100.51, an increase of 0.32 from the previous value; the S&P 500 index was 6,343.72, a decrease of 25.13 from the previous value; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.35%, a decrease of 0.09% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was 108.89, an increase of 2.60 from the previous value; the US dollar - RMB exchange rate was 6.9130, an increase of 0.0025 from the previous value [2]. Derivatives - The current SPDR gold ETF holdings were 1,046.1 tons, a decrease of 3.4 tons from the previous value; the SLV silver ETF holdings were 15,288.4 tons, a decrease of 121.1 tons from the previous value; the CFTC speculators' net long position in gold was 168,327, an increase of 8458 from the previous value; the CFTC speculators' net long position in silver was 24,673, an increase of 2792 from the previous value [2]. Macro News - **Geopolitical Tensions**: European officials said Iran is pressuring the Houthi rebels to prepare for a new round of shipping attacks in the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels' leadership has internal differences on the level of radical strategies. The longer the war between the US/Israel and Iran lasts, the higher the possibility of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea [3]. - **Iran's Policy**: Iran's parliament approved a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, up to $2 million per tanker, payable in Iranian rials. The new plan also bans ships related to the US, Israel, or countries that imposed sanctions on Iran. The US does not support this move [4]. - **Oil Price**: WTI crude oil closed above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 on Monday, up more than 3% to $102.88 per barrel. Brent crude futures are expected to achieve a record - breaking increase in March. The war between the US/Israel and Iran has disrupted global markets and caused oil prices to soar [5]. - **US Policy**: The US President Trump may call on Arab countries to bear the cost of the Iran war. The White House also said that negotiations with Iran are still ongoing and progressing smoothly, but there is a difference between Iran's public statements and private communications [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The overall market is affected by factors such as the Iranian situation, with significant uncertainties and potential for increased volatility [6][9][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw a full - line increase in treasury bond futures. Given the current relatively low treasury bond yields, a stable economic recovery in China, rising core inflation, and potential for domestic demand policies, the market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index Futures - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day witnessed mixed performance in stock index futures. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is weak, and corporate profit growth is at a low level. However, domestic asset valuations are low, the economy has resilience, the policy environment is favorable, and there is potential for anti - "involution" and domestic demand expansion policies. Due to the high uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase significantly, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw increases in gold and silver futures. Given the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, and central banks' gold purchases, the long - term logic for precious metals remains strong. However, due to significant previous price increases and the uncertainty of the Iranian situation, market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [11]. Steel and Iron Ore - **Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. In the medium term, prices are determined by industry supply - demand. Rebar demand is on a decline, but the supply pressure has eased, and inventory pressure is low. Prices may rebound but with limited space. The situation for hot - rolled coil is similar. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [13][14]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. The daily output of molten iron may continue to rise, which is positive for prices, but the supply is also increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. Prices may rebound in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [16]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures showed sideways movements. The Middle East geopolitical conflict may affect futures prices sentimentally, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand pattern. Coking coal supply may increase, while demand is rising. Coke supply is stable, and demand is expanding. Prices may continue to be strong in the short term. Investors can look for low - position long - entry opportunities and manage positions carefully [18]. Ferroalloys - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron futures rose. The cost of ferroalloys is rising slightly, and production is at a low level, with weak demand and continued surplus pressure. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions [20][21]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil rose and then fell. Speculators increased their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. US energy companies reduced the number of oil and gas rigs. The situation of the US - Iran negotiation is complex, and crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely during the negotiation period. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for INE crude oil [22][23][24]. - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly reported higher prices, and the LLDPE price in Yuyao rose. Future supply pressure is expected to ease, but downstream demand growth is expected to slow, and the market trend is unclear. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [26]. Rubber - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures fell. The core contradiction lies in the cost - push and supply - demand game. Cost support is still there but weakening, supply pressure has eased slightly, and demand has recovered. The market is expected to be strongly volatile [28][29][30]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between the increase in synthetic rubber cost and natural rubber substitution demand due to the Middle East geopolitical conflict and the approaching domestic production season and slow demand recovery. The market is expected to fluctuate widely [31][32]. Chemicals - **PVC**: The previous trading day, PVC futures fell. The core contradiction is the game between overseas geopolitical conflicts, domestic spring demand, and high inventory. Cost support is strong in the short term, and prices are expected to be strongly volatile, but the upside is limited by high inventory [33][34][35]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day, urea futures rose. The core contradiction is the game between high supply and policy - imposed price ceilings. Prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, but the downside is limited due to cost support and the approaching demand peak season [36][37]. - **PX**: The previous trading day, PX futures rose. PX factories have reduced their loads due to concerns about raw material supply. The short - term PX price may fluctuate widely, and cautious operation is recommended [38][39]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day, PTA futures fell. More PTA plants have restarted, and downstream filament factories have increased their production cuts. The short - term market is in a multi - empty game, and cautious operation is recommended [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. Due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, supply from the Persian Gulf may decline, and prices may be more volatile. However, the geopolitical situation is still uncertain, and cautious attention is needed [41][42]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, short - fiber futures rose. Supply has increased, and terminal demand has declined. The short - term market is mainly driven by cost, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments, plant operations, and downstream factory resumption [43]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, bottle - chip futures rose. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed much, and the processing fee has been continuously repaired. Given the changing Middle East situation, cautious participation is recommended [44][45]. Building Materials - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, soda ash futures fell. Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is weak. Cost support is expected to be suppressed by the actual fundamentals, and the price adjustment range is limited. The market is expected to be in a stalemate [46][47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day, glass futures rose. The production line is shrinking, inventory removal is slowing down, and cost support is still there. The market sentiment is expected to fluctuate [48]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, caustic soda futures fell. Supply has decreased slightly, and inventory has not been significantly removed. The export price of high - grade caustic soda has risen strongly, and attention should be paid to changes in procurement prices and factory inventory [49][50]. Pulp - **Paper Pulp**: The previous trading day, paper pulp futures rose. Port inventory has increased rapidly, and domestic supply has also increased slightly. Inventory accumulation and weak demand restrict the rebound height [51][52]. Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day, copper futures fell. Macro - sentiment fluctuations are the key to short - term price movements. The mine supply is in a tight balance, and the consumption is structurally differentiated. The domestic inventory is in the process of reduction, and the price downside is limited [54][55]. - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, aluminum futures rose, and alumina futures fell. The supply of alumina is tightened, and the electrolytic aluminum supply is affected by geopolitical conflicts. Demand is strong, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise slightly [56][57]. - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, zinc futures rose. The mining cost provides support, and the demand has recovered slightly, but the real - estate demand is weak. The inventory is decreasing, and the price rebound space is limited [58][59]. - **Lead**: The previous trading day, lead futures rose. The supply of recycled lead is tightened, and the demand for batteries has increased, but the overseas inventory is high, and the domestic demand in the off - season is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range [60][61][62]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day, tin futures rose. The geopolitical situation affects the market risk sentiment. The supply tightness has eased, and the demand is complex. The inventory is decreasing, and the price has support, but attention should be paid to risk control [63]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, nickel futures rose. The Indonesian policy has changed, and the nickel ore supply is expected to be tight, but the stainless - steel demand is weak, and the refined nickel is in surplus. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro - events [64][65]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a good harvest, and the US soybean planting area is awaited. The short - term supply of soybeans may be tight, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [66][67]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, palm oil futures rose. Indonesia plans to promote the B50 biodiesel project, and the export volume has increased. The inventory is in the middle - high level in the past 7 years. Short - term long - entry can be considered [68][69][70]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, rapeseed futures rose. The vegetable oil market is supported by the rising crude oil price. The inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed meal is decreasing, and the inventory of rapeseed oil is increasing. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [71][72]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, domestic cotton futures showed sideways movements, and overseas cotton futures rose. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the inventory is in the process of reduction. The domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long - term, but the short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance. The long - term cotton price is expected to rise after a decline [73][74][75]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, domestic sugar futures rose and then fell, and overseas sugar futures also showed a similar trend. The overseas sugar price has support due to the Indian production shortfall and the change in Brazilian sugar - making ratio. The domestic sugar supply is sufficient, but the long - term price bottom has risen [76][77]. - **Apple**: The previous trading day, apple futures showed sideways movements. It is now the Tomb - Sweeping Festival stocking period, and attention should be paid to the weather during the apple - flowering period. The market is expected to be stable and strong [78]. - **Pig**: The previous trading day, pig futures rose. The northern market is expected to adjust slightly, and the southern market is expected to be in a stalemate. The supply pressure is large, and short - position rolling and light - position holding can be considered [79][80]. - **Egg**: The previous trading day, egg futures fell. The egg supply has improved, and the supply structure of large and small eggs is differentiated. It is advisable to stay on the sidelines [81]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures fell. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the wheat substitution effect may strengthen. The corn - starch demand has recovered slightly, but the inventory is high. For a significant price increase, attention can be paid to the out - of - the - money put options of the forward contract [82][83]. - **Log**: The previous trading day, log futures rose. The New Zealand log supply may shrink, and the domestic inventory is decreasing. The domestic demand is weak, and the overseas demand is strong. The market is affected by the geopolitical conflict [84][85][86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for both the non-ferrous metals and precious metals sectors [7]. Core Views - Recent declines in gold prices are primarily attributed to liquidity squeezes, as investors prefer holding cash during risk events, leading to the liquidation of gold and other assets [1][2]. - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and concerns over stagflation combined with weakened interest rate cut expectations have intensified volatility in risk assets, contributing to liquidity pressures [1]. - Historical parallels are drawn to the 1973-1975 oil crisis, where gold prices experienced a cycle of declines and recoveries influenced by liquidity events and economic downturns [4]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - The recent drop in gold prices is linked to a significant reduction in net long positions held by asset management institutions, which fell by 32% from 134,000 contracts on January 13 to 91,000 contracts by March 24, marking a one-year low [2]. - The current market environment reflects a shift away from gold's traditional role as an inflation hedge due to liquidity squeezes, although the reduction in long positions may signal a nearing end to selling pressure [2]. Macro Environment - Gold is currently under "de-virtualization" pressure, particularly in cash-strapped Gulf countries facing physical shortages of goods, leading to a rational choice to liquidate high-yielding gold for essential items [3]. - The report notes that global central bank and private sector gold holdings are at historical highs, with the proportion of gold in reserves expected to rise from 12.8% in 2020 to 24.5% by the end of 2025 [3]. Historical Context - The report outlines the price movements of gold during the 1973-1974 oil crisis, where gold prices initially rose following the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, then fell due to liquidity issues, before experiencing a significant recovery as economic conditions stabilized [4]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the report remains optimistic about gold's long-term value as a hedge against risk, driven by factors such as de-dollarization and unsustainable fiscal policies [5]. - The potential for gold prices to rise to $5,400-$6,800 per ounce is highlighted if the proportion of investable gold exceeds 4.3%-4.8% by 2026-2028, compared to 3.6% in 2011 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, oil prices strengthen, and the US dollar index remains high, the final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in August dropped to 53.3, highlighting consumer concerns about geopolitical conflicts. The US stock market tumbled, and the market trading logic gradually shifted from inflation to stagflation. US Treasury yields fell from high levels, boosting precious metal prices to rise in the same direction as oil [6]. - The Middle East geopolitical situation continues to escalate over the weekend, and the risk of the US intervening in a ground war is increasing. Precious metal prices may still fluctuate in the short term. However, if the trading logic shifts to precious metals, it will support precious metal prices. In summary, precious metal prices are expected to gradually bottom out in the short term, and the medium - and long - term supporting factors (geopolitical uncertainty, the US's huge debt, de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases, etc.) still exist. In the future, as factors such as geopolitical conflicts and monetary policies become clearer, the precious metal market is expected to emerge from the adjustment and return to its long - term value center. Investors are advised to seize the opportunity for long - term layout during this deep adjustment [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Tracking - **内外盘金银行情** - On March 27, 2026, London gold spot was at $4459.39/ounce, London silver spot was at $69.79/ounce, COMEX gold was at $4454.20/ounce, COMEX silver was at $69.90/ounce, AU2604 was at 995.18 yuan/gram, AG2604 was at 17558 yuan/kg, AU (T + D) was at 995.06 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was at 17475 yuan/kg. Compared with March 26, the changes were 0.0%, -0.3%, 0.0%, -0.4%, 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [5]. - **价差/比价情况** - On March 27, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price difference was -0.12 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was -83 yuan/kg, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was 3.77 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was -50 yuan/kg, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 56.68, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 63.72, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.48 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was -69 yuan/kg. Compared with March 26, the changes were -73.9%, 38.3%, 29.5%, -47.5%, 0.0%, 0.4%, 15.2%, and 46.8% respectively [5]. 3.2 Position Data - On March 27, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was N/A tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 15409.46251 tons, the non - commercial long position of COMEX gold was 220861 contracts, the non - commercial short position of COMEX gold was 52534 contracts, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX gold was 168327 contracts, the non - commercial long position of COMEX silver was 33938 contracts, the non - commercial short position of COMEX silver was 9265 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position of COMEX silver was 24673 contracts. Compared with March 26, the changes were N/A, 0.00%, 2.27%, -6.34%, 5.29%, 9.04%, 0.23%, and 12.76% respectively [5]. 3.3 Inventory Data - On March 27, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 106644 kg, the SHFE silver inventory was 371799 kg, the COMEX gold inventory was 31713528 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 328297364 troy ounces. Compared with March 26, the changes were -0.09%, 0.41%, -0.60%, and -0.08% respectively [5]. 3.4 Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On March 27, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 6.91, the US dollar index was 100.17, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.88%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, the VIX was 31.05, the S&P 500 was 6368.85, and NYMEX crude oil was $101.18/barrel. Compared with March 26, the changes were 0.12%, 0.26%, -2.02%, 0.45%, 13.16%, -1.67%, and 7.88% respectively [5]. 3.5 Market Review - On March 27, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.99% to 998.66 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 2.03% to 17489 yuan/kg [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing gold prices to rebound. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4521 per ounce, up 0.7% for the week. The upper resistance level is $4700, and the lower support level is $4400 [6] - US announced a peace - negotiation plan, market risk appetite slightly recovered, and Iran continued to close the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a rebound in silver prices. As of last Friday, the weekly gain was 2.9%, closing at $69.8 per ounce. The lower support level is $65, and the upper resistance level is $77 [9] 3.2 Weekly View - The reasons for the rebound of precious metal prices are the same as above. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, US employment slowed, and Powell said short - term Middle - East tensions pushed up inflation. The Middle - East situation caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts became more hawkish. The spread of the war is still uncertain. US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and Fed independence. Central - bank gold purchases and de - dollarization remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are moving up. Platinum and palladium lease rates remain relatively high, with support at the bottom but short - term adjustment pressure. The inventory and position data are as follows: Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate and adjust, and it is recommended to wait and be cautious in trading [11][13] 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data charts of the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rate (10 - year TIPS yield), inflation expectation (10Y), yield spread (10Y - 2Y), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), Fed balance - sheet size and its weekly change, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trend [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The preliminary value of the US SPGI manufacturing PMI in March was 52.4, the expected value was 51.3, and the previous value was 51.6. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending March 21 was 210,000, the expected value was 210,000, and the previous value was 205,000 [25] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump said on Thursday that at the request of the Iranian government, he would suspend attacks on Iranian energy facilities for 10 days and that negotiations with Tehran were progressing "very smoothly." However, an Iranian senior official said the US proposal to end the conflict was "unilateral and unfair," lacking the minimum requirements for success and only serving the interests of the US and Israel. Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. - European Central Bank President Lagarde said that even if the current energy - shock - induced inflation only briefly exceeds the ECB's inflation target, moderate policy tightening may be needed [26] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 10,598.43 kg to 986,401.72 kg, and SHFE gold inventory decreased by 201 kg to 106,644 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 136,789.80 kg to 10,211,197.05 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 9,304 kg to 371,799 kg [13][28] 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 24, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 161,335 contracts, a decrease of 2,016 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,811 contracts, an increase of 1,775 contracts from last week [13][32] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday (April 1), at 20:15, the change in US ADP employment in March; at 22:00, the US ISM manufacturing PMI in March. - On Friday (April 3), at 20:30, the seasonally - adjusted change in US non - farm payrolls in March and the US unemployment rate in March [34]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts, macro - economic conditions, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment outlooks. [5][7][10] - In the face of uncertainties, investors are advised to take different strategies for different commodities, including waiting and seeing, light - position participation, etc. [6][9][11] 3. Summary by Commodity Fixed - income - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed with mixed results. Given the current macro - economic situation, the market is expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised. [5][6] Equity - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day, stock index futures showed different trends. Although the domestic economy is stable, the recovery momentum is not strong. Considering the uncertainties in the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [7][8][9] Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The previous trading day, gold and silver futures rose. The "anti - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the value of gold. However, due to the uncertainties in the Iran situation, the market volatility is expected to increase, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [10][11] Base Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fluctuated. In the short term, the Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, while in the medium term, it is dominated by supply - demand. Rebar prices may rebound but with limited space, and hot - rolled coil may follow a similar trend. Investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities. [12][13] - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand. The increase in demand may support prices, but the high inventory may limit the upside. Technically, it may rebound in the short term, and investors can consider low - position long - entry. [14][15] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly. The Middle East conflict may affect sentiment, but has little impact on the actual supply - demand. Coking coal supply may increase, while coke demand may expand. Technically, they may continue to be strong in the short term, and investors can pay attention to low - position long - entry opportunities. [15][16] - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day, manganese silicon rose and silicon iron fell. The cost of ferroalloys is fluctuating slightly, and the supply is relatively loose. After a short - term price increase, investors can consider taking profits on long positions. [17][18] Energy - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. The increase in net long positions in futures and options shows that US funds are optimistic about the future of crude oil. The reduction in the number of drilling rigs by US shale oil producers supports prices. Due to the complex situation in the US - Iran - Israel conflict, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [19][20][22] Chemicals - **Polyolefins**: The previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou mostly rose, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao was stable. Supply pressure is expected to ease, but demand growth is slow. The market is expected to be in a high - level consolidation in the short term, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines. [23][24] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber contract rose. The cost of butadiene is high, and the supply pressure is slightly relieved. The market is expected to be in a strong - side shock. [25][26][27] - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day, natural rubber contracts rose. The market is in a short - term multi - empty game, and it is expected to be in a wide - range shock. [28][29] - **PVC**: The previous trading day, the PVC contract fell. The market is in a game between cost support, demand start, and high inventory. It is expected to be in a strong - side shock, but the upside is limited by high inventory. [30][31][32] - **Urea**: The previous trading day, the urea contract fell. The market is in a game between high supply and policy constraints. It is expected to fluctuate, and the downside is limited. [33][34] - **PX**: The previous trading day, the PX contract rose. The PX factory load has decreased, and the supply is expected to be tight. The price may fluctuate widely in the short term, and cautious operation is recommended. [35][36] - **PTA**: The previous trading day, the PTA contract rose. The PTA plant restarted, and the downstream polyester plant cut production. The short - term multi - empty game is intensifying, and cautious operation is recommended. [37] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol contract rose. The supply may decline, but the demand is weak. The price needs to be treated with caution, and attention should be paid to the negotiation progress and the situation in the Strait. [38][39] - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day, the short - fiber contract rose. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. It is still trading based on the cost logic, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and plant dynamics. [40] - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day, the bottle - chip contract rose. The supply and demand fundamentals have little change, and the processing fee is being repaired. Due to the changing Middle East situation, it is advisable to participate cautiously. [41][42] - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day, the soda - ash contract fell slightly. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is average. The cost support is affected by the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be in a stalemate. [43][44] - **Glass**: The previous trading day, the glass contract rose slightly. The production line is shrinking, and the inventory reduction is slowing down. The cost support is still there, and the market sentiment may fluctuate. [45] - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day, the caustic - soda contract fell. The supply decreased slightly, and the inventory did not decrease significantly. The price of caustic soda in Shandong and other places has risen, and attention should be paid to overseas plant dynamics and export orders. [46][47] - **Pulp**: The previous trading day, the pulp contract rose slightly. The port inventory increased rapidly, and the demand was weak, which restricted the rebound height. [48][49] Non - ferrous Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day, the lithium - carbonate contract rose. The global lithium resource supply - demand balance is being reshaped, and the supply is tight. The demand in the energy - storage and power - battery sectors is improving. The price has short - term support, but the short - term volatility may increase. [50][51] - **Copper**: The previous trading day, the copper contract fell. The macro - sentiment and fundamentals jointly affect the price. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment. [52][53] - **Aluminum**: The previous trading day, the aluminum and alumina contracts rose. The supply is affected by policies and geopolitical conflicts, and the demand is strong. The price is expected to be in an oscillatory adjustment and may rise in the long term. [54][55][56] - **Zinc**: The previous trading day, the zinc contract rose. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to be in a range - bound oscillation. [57][58] - **Lead**: The previous trading day, the lead contract fell. The supply is tightened, and the demand has rigid support. The price is expected to be in a range - bound operation. [59][60][61] - **Tin**: The previous trading day, the tin contract rose. The supply is slightly relieved, and the demand in the emerging fields is strong. The price has support, but the short - term volatility may increase. [62] - **Nickel**: The previous trading day, the nickel contract fell. The policy risk in Indonesia increases, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight. However, the downstream demand is weak, and the overall supply is in surplus. [63][64] Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day, the soybean - meal contract fell, and the soybean - oil contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be relatively loose in the medium term, and the short - term supply may be tight. It is advisable to wait and see. [65][66] - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day, the palm - oil contract rose. The export volume increased, and the inventory is at a relatively high level. It is advisable to consider closing long positions. [67][68][69] - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day, the rapeseed - meal contract fell, and the rapeseed - oil contract was stable. The imports of rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal increased, and the inventory is at different levels. It is advisable to wait and see. [70][71] - **Cotton**: The previous trading day, the cotton contract fluctuated. The global cotton production is expected to decrease, and the domestic supply is expected to be tight in the long term. The short - term supply pressure is relieved by the quota issuance. The price is expected to be strong in the long term. [72][74][75] - **Sugar**: The previous trading day, the sugar contract fluctuated. The international sugar price has support, and the domestic supply is sufficient. The long - term sugar price bottom has risen. [76][77][78] - **Apple**: The previous trading day, the apple contract fluctuated. With the peak of Tomb - Sweeping Festival备货, the demand is released, and the market is expected to be stable and strong. Attention should be paid to the weather during the flowering period. [79][80] - **Live Hogs**: The previous trading day, the live - hog contract rose. The supply pressure is still large, and the consumption is weak. It is advisable to hold short positions lightly. [81][82] - **Eggs**: The previous trading day, the egg contract rose. The egg supply is improving, and the supply structure is differentiated. It is advisable to wait and see. [83][84] - **Corn and Corn Starch**: The previous trading day, the corn and corn - starch contracts fell. The domestic corn supply and demand are basically balanced, and the corn - starch demand is slightly improving. Attention can be paid to the short - term selling opportunity of the forward contract. [85][86][87] - **Logs**: The previous trading day, the log contract rose. The supply of New Zealand logs may shrink, the downstream demand is improving, and the consumption shows a differentiated pattern. The market is affected by geopolitical conflicts. [88][89][90]