有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外盘铜价震荡偏弱，未能进一步延续涨势，国内现货进口处于亏损态势。宏观方 | | | | 面，美国二季度实际 GDP 年化季环比终值 3.8%，高于预期和前值 3.3%；美国二季度 | | | | PCE 物价指数年化季环比终值 2.6%，略高于预期和前值 2.5%。该数据表明美国经济 | | | | 韧性和通胀顽固性同在。美国首申失业金人数为 21.8 万人，较前周下降 1.4 万人，为 | | | | 七月以来最低水平，劳动力市场放缓担忧减缓。昨晚美联储理事米兰表示应每次降息 | | | | 50 个基点，通过"短暂且大幅"降息快速达到中性利率。库存方面，LME 库存下降 350 | | | | 吨至 144425 吨；Comex 库存增加 2564 吨至 291260 吨；SMM 周四统计国内铜社会库 | | | 铜 | 存较周一下降 0.44 万吨至 14.01 万吨。需求方面，长假到来，下游采购相对谨慎。美 | | | | Freeport M ...

终端需求整体仍显疲软，下游采购谨慎，观望情绪浓厚。供应方面，产线调整有限，市场货源较为充 裕，企业多稳价出货，实际成交灵活调整。区域库存表现分化明显，其中华东、华中、华南及西北地区 去库效果较好，而华北和西南地区仍面临一定累库压力。基本面来看，市场缺乏单边驱动因素，价格波 动空间有限，预计维持震荡运行。 建信期货：预计玻璃期货主力合约短期维持震荡走势 基本面方面，供应端玻璃整体产量呈现小幅抬升态势，但仍处于底部区间，尚未进入大规模放量阶段。 现货价格有所回升，因此行业利润有所改善。需求端，深加工订单基本维持不变，刚需为主。库存端， 重新累库。分品种看，浮法玻璃供应端压力相比去年呈现边际缓解态势，成本端有一定的支撑力，但需 求端持续疲软，短期内或难有显著突破，新房玻璃需求仍在持续下滑；伏玻璃市场迎来显著涨价行情， 需求端的强劲支撑成为本次价格上涨的关键驱动力。宏观情绪方面，随着旺季需求的提振，叠加反内卷 预期的走强。预计玻璃期货主力合约短期维持震荡走势。 东海期货：政策面情绪反复，预计玻璃短期区间震荡 9月24日盘中，玻璃期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至1241.00元。截止发稿，玻璃主力合约 报124 ...

聚烯烃产业期现日报 Z0003135 | 品中 | 9月23日 | 9月22日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7105 | 7130 | -25 | -0.35% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7193 | 7229 | -36 | -0.50% | | | PP2601 收盘价 | 6842 | 6873 | -31 | -0.45% | | | PP2509 收盘价 | 6888 | 6912 | -24 | -0.35% | | | L2509-2601 | 88 | ਰੇਰੇ | -11 | -11.11% | TT/44 | | PP2509-2601 | 46 | 39 | 7 | 17.95% | | | 华东PP拉丝现货 | 6720 | 6720 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 华北LDPE膜料现货 | 7050 | 7070 | -20 | -0.28% | | | 华北 LL基差 | -50 | -60 | 10 | -16.67% | | | 华东 pp基差 | -12 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it offers outlooks for individual metals: - Copper: Expected to be in a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [5][6] - Alumina: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish, suggesting short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines [6][7][8] - Aluminum: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] - Zinc: Expected to be volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] - Lead: Expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: Expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term, with a wait - and - see approach in the medium - to long - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: Expected to be in a volatile state [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overall for non - ferrous metals: Before the National Day holiday, downstream restocking is expected, and non - ferrous metals may stabilize and rebound. In the short - to medium - term, weak US dollar and supply disruptions support prices, while weak terminal demand limits the upside. In the long - term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin support prices [1] - For individual metals: - Copper: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions, along with the approaching peak demand season, support copper prices. However, factors such as unexpected tariff policies and weak domestic demand recovery pose risks [5][6] - Alumina: The fundamental situation remains weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. Prices are under pressure until factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions occur [6][7][8] - Aluminum: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Aluminum Alloy: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Zinc: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Lead: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Nickel: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Stainless Steel: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Tin: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp; the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suspended operations; in August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year; on September 22, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper and copper inventory changed [5] - Logic: The Fed's interest rate cut and supply disruptions support copper prices. The approaching peak demand season increases downstream restocking willingness. If the inventory continues to decline, copper prices may continue to be strong [6] - Outlook: Copper may show a moderately bullish and volatile pattern [6] 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On September 22, the spot price of alumina in different regions changed; an electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, and the price decreased; the alumina warehouse receipt increased [6][7] - Logic: The fundamentals remain weak, with excess supply and strong inventory accumulation. The price is under pressure until there are factors such as smelter losses and production cuts or ore - end policy disruptions [6][7][8] - Outlook: Short - term outlook is volatile and bearish. Consider short - selling at high prices or staying on the sidelines, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [8] 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On September 22, the price of SMM AOO aluminum, aluminum ingot inventory, aluminum rod inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipt changed; in August, China's aluminum and its products exports decreased year - on - year; the Fed cut interest rates; an Indonesian aluminum smelter plans to be put into production [9] - Logic: After the short - term interest rate cut, the demand side shows marginal improvement, but the inventory decline inflection point is not clear. The price is expected to be volatile [9][10] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a potential upward shift in the medium - term [9][10] 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On September 22, the price of Baotai ADC12, the price difference between Baotai ADC12 and SMM AOO aluminum, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipt changed; in August, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased year - on - year; the EU may impose a tax on scrap metal exports [10][11] - Logic: Cost support is strong, but the peak season demand needs to be verified. The price is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there are opportunities for cross - variety arbitrage [11][12] - Outlook: ADC12 and ADC12 - A00 are expected to be in a low - level volatile state in the short - term, with potential for an upward movement later [11][12] 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On September 22, the spot price of zinc in different regions and SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory changed; CZSPT released the guidance price range for imported zinc concentrate procurement in the fourth quarter of 2025 [12] - Logic: The supply is increasing, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, the price is expected to be volatile at a high level, and there is a downward trend in the long - term [12][13] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term, with a downward trend in the medium - to long - term [12][13] 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On September 22, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries, the price difference between primary and secondary lead, the price of SMM1 lead ingot, and lead ingot inventory changed; downstream lead - acid battery enterprises are restocking before the National Day [13][14] - Logic: Before the National Day, the demand for lead ingots increases, and the supply may tighten. The price is expected to be moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] - Outlook: Moderately bullish and volatile [14][16] 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On September 22, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt decreased; the price of high - nickel pig iron is supported by cost and the peak season, but the demand is weak; some nickel - related events such as corporate acquisitions and land seizures occurred [16][17] - Logic: The market sentiment dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are weakening marginally. The price is expected to be in a wide - range volatile pattern in the short - term [17][18] - Outlook: Wide - range volatile in the short - term, wait - and - see in the medium - to long - term [17][18] 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt inventory decreased; the spot price difference between Foshan Hongwang 304 and the stainless steel main contract, and the transaction prices of high - nickel pig iron in China and Indonesia were reported [19][22] - Logic: Pay attention to the fulfillment of peak - season demand and inventory changes. The price is expected to be volatile [19][22] - Outlook: Volatile in the short - term [19][22] 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On September 22, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased, Shanghai tin positions decreased, and the spot price of 1 tin ingot increased [23] - Logic: The supply is tight, providing strong support for the price. However, the terminal demand is weakening, and the price is expected to be in a volatile state [23] - Outlook: Volatile [23] 3.2行情监测 The report only lists the names of various metals for monitoring (copper, alumina, aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin) but does not provide specific monitoring content [25][26][40] 3.3 Commodity Index - Comprehensive Index: Not detailed - Special Index: The commodity 20 index increased by 0.44% to 2510.95, the industrial products index decreased by 0.34% to 2246.26 [151] - Sector Index: The non - ferrous metals index on September 22 was 2385.20, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day decrease of 0.85%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.33% [153]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: On Friday night, Shanghai copper opened high and went higher. Today, copper prices maintained a strong shock, with a slight decline in open interest. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. High copper prices previously led to strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment. The decline in copper prices and pre - holiday stocking demand boosted industrial restocking willingness, supporting copper prices. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 80,000 mark [4]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices fluctuated, with open interest continuously declining. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. In September, aluminum prices generally remained high, and downstream restocking willingness was weak. As futures prices declined, the accumulation of electrolytic aluminum social inventory slowed down. Technically, Shanghai aluminum pulled back after hitting a high in March, facing significant technical pressure. Pay attention to the support of the 60 - day moving average [5]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel rose and then fell, with open interest continuously rising. In the morning, the main futures price reached the 122,000 mark. After the Fed's September interest rate cut last week, short - term long - position closing was over. On the industrial side, disruptions at the Indonesian mine end were positive for nickel prices, while the continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and SHFE nickel inventory was negative for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices were still in the shock range. Pay attention to the 120,000 - 123,000 range [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Copper - In August 2025, China's copper enameled wire exports were 12,806 tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.82% and a month - on - month increase of 2.09%. From January to August, China's copper enameled wire exports totaled 94,935.7 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 25.41% [8]. - In August 2025, China's copper clad laminate (HS code: 74102110) imports were 3,417.14 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.12% and a month - on - month increase of 5.68%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 26,439.07 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.23%. In August, exports were 8,377.20 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.22% and a month - on - month increase of 15.87%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 59,867.55 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.85% [8]. Aluminum - In August 2025, the imports of unwrought aluminum alloy were 71,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.6%. From January to August, the cumulative imports were 682,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.2%. In August, the exports were 29,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.3% and a month - on - month increase of 16.7%. From January to August, the cumulative exports were 174,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [9]. - In August 2025, the exports of domestic aluminum profiles were 84,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.94% [9]. Nickel - On September 22, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 121,300 - 124,100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 122,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,300 - 2,400 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 200 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts Copper - Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] Aluminum - Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [22][24][26] Nickel - Charts include nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][38]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: The operation rating is not clearly defined in text, but it can be inferred from the star system that it may be a more bullish or bearish trend based on the context. The star rating is not specified in a way that can be directly translated to a standard investment rating, but the analysis shows a mid - term bearish trend. [1][2] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, representing a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The text does not clearly state its star rating, but the analysis provides investment suggestions. [3] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, indicating a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, suggesting a more distinct bullish or bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity. [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil: The mid - term bearish trend of crude oil prices remains unchanged. Short - term geopolitical factors may cause temporary supply fluctuations, but the rebound space is increasingly limited. A strategy combination of high - level short positions and call options is recommended. [2] - Fuel oil & Low - sulfur fuel oil: The decline of fuel - related futures is relatively limited. The low - sulfur supply pressure is limited, and it is recommended to pay attention to the strategy of expanding the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils when the spread is low. [3] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend. The price has bottom support and limited downward space. [4] - LPG: The overseas market is strong, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support, and attention should be paid to the peak - season stocking market. [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The SC11 contract fell 1.87% overnight. Last week, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels due to a sharp increase in exports, while the increase in middle - distillate inventories raised market concerns about demand. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut did not bring more - than - expected positive effects. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - After the frequent attacks on Russian refineries, the weekly loading volume of Russian fuel oil has continued to decline. The increasing operating rate of Shandong refineries is beneficial to the feedstock demand for fuel oil. The growth in ship - fuel consumption in the Singapore market is concentrated in the high - sulfur ship - fuel sector. The third - batch low - sulfur fuel oil export quota in 2025 is 700,000 tons, lower than 1 million tons in the same period last year, but the cumulative quota has increased by 900,000 tons year - on - year. The low quota utilization rate limits the low - sulfur supply pressure. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures continue the range - bound trend as crude oil continues to correct. The factory and social inventories continue to decline, but the decline has slowed down compared to the beginning of the week. As of now this week, the cumulative warehouse receipts in East China warehouses have decreased by 3,050 tons, and 1,330 tons of factory - warehouse receipts were cancelled today. The downward pressure on East China's spot prices has eased, while the spot prices in South China and Hebei remain stable. [4] LPG - The overseas market remains strong. Due to the high import demand and rising geopolitical risks, the overall sentiment is bullish. In South China, the impact of typhoons has reduced imported goods. The good chemical profit margins can maintain a high operating - rate pattern, and the short - term price - to - oil ratio is expected to be strong. The spot has good bottom support. [5]

1. Steel Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak demand and the expectation of a contraction in coal supply. With the impact of reduced coking coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space is expected to be limited, and prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 33 yuan to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions mostly declined, and the profits of rebar also showed a mixed trend [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2% increase). The production of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons (0.3% increase) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons (0.8% increase), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons (6.0% increase) [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Considering that the steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level. The low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. It is recommended to view the single - side trend as oscillating upwards, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to buy the 2601 contract of iron ore at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The basis of the 01 - contract for various iron ore powders decreased significantly. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 39.8 to 40.3 yuan/ton (- 49.7%). The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 yuan/ton (2.6%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons (29.6%), while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3 tons (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 tons (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 tons (0.6%) [4]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For coke, the market is driven by the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions in September and the bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1509 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 26 to 1709 yuan/ton (- 1.5%). The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 30 to 1230 yuan/ton (2.5%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, while the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 tons (5.1%). The raw coal output of main - producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 tons (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the demand for coking coal and coke showed an upward trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with different inventory trends among different sectors [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

Core Viewpoint - The main trend in the zinc futures market is a slight decline, with the Shanghai zinc futures main contract showing a decrease of 0.09% and closing at 22,280.00 yuan [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - According to Shenyin Wanguo Futures, zinc prices are expected to experience weak fluctuations within a range due to a potential oversupply situation, influenced by factors such as the recovery of zinc concentrate processing fees and positive growth in construction investment [2] - Jianxin Futures indicates that the Shanghai zinc market is likely to maintain a range-bound oscillation pattern, with supply remaining relatively loose despite some production declines in the zinc smelting sector [3] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The overall smelting profit has turned positive, and smelting output is expected to continue to rise, although there are indications of a slight decrease in production from some recycled zinc enterprises due to rising raw material prices [2][3] - The inventory of galvanized sheets has been increasing weekly, and while primary consumption sectors are showing improvements, the transmission of this improvement to the market remains slow [3]