能源化工日报 2025-12-24 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶研究员 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn INE 主力原油期货收涨 8.30 元/桶，涨幅 1.92%，报 440.90 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 52.00 元/吨，涨幅 2.14%，报 2483.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 42.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.42%，报 2999.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存累库 0.29 百万桶至 206.16 百万桶，环比累库 0.14%； 汽油商业库存累库 0.74 百万桶至 90.43 百万桶，环比累库 0.82%；柴油商业库存去库 0.04 百 万桶至 92.41 百万桶，环比去库 0.04%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.70 百万桶至 182.84 百万 桶，环比累库 0.39%。 【策略观点】 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素研究员 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为尽管地缘溢价已经全部消散 ...

| 业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监 午可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月20日 | | | | 纪元菲 | Z0013180 | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品和 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧S15530工业硅 | 9200 | 9200 | O | 0.00% | | | 基差(通氧S15530基准) | ર્ | 730 | -175 | -23.97% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 9650 | 9650 | O | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差 (Sl4210基准) | 205 | 380 | -175 | -46.05% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8750 | 8750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基差(新疆) | | 1080 | -175 | -16.20% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合药 | 12月18日 | 12月17日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, it's not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it's recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports to confirm the price trend [3]. - For methanol, after the bullish factors are realized, the market enters a short - term consolidation. Import arrivals will remain high, and port olefin plants have maintenance plans. The overall supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It's expected to trade in a low - level range, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. - For urea, the market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term due to reserve needs and higher compound fertilizer production. Supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. - For natural rubber, a neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, it's advisable to go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. - For polyethylene, the long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It's recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. - For PX, it's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. - For PTA, the supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. - For ethylene glycol, although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 5.10 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 429.40 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 2.01%, to 2439.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 46.00 yuan/ton, or 1.59%, to 2931.00 yuan/ton. US EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 1.27 million barrels to 424.42 million barrels, while SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 412.17 million barrels. Gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and aviation kerosene inventories all increased [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 5 yuan/ton, in Henan by - 5 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 17.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 18 yuan/ton to 2174 yuan/ton, and MTO profit was - 198 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the bullish factors are realized, the market enters short - term consolidation. The port inventory is decreasing, but future pressure remains. The supply is high, and the fundamentals are under pressure. A wait - and - see approach is recommended for single - sided trading [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, in Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, in Jiangsu by 0 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 20 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 38 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 62 yuan/ton to 1708 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is oscillating higher. Demand has improved in the short - term, and supply is expected to decline seasonally. With export policy and cost support, it's expected to build a bottom in a range. Buying on dips is recommended [10]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating. Exchange RU inventory warrants were low, and the buying demand for winter storage was a bullish factor. As of December 18, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.66%, up 1.08 percentage points from last week and 2.56 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 72.76%, down 0.24 percentage points from last week and 5.93 percentage points from the same period last year. The total social inventory of natural rubber in China was 115.2 million tons as of December 14, 2025, up 2.9 million tons, or 2.6% [12][14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: A neutral approach is taken, suggesting short - term trading and holding a hedging position of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 28 yuan to 4708 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4430 (+30) yuan/ton, and the basis was - 278 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (- 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.4%, down 0.5%. Factory inventory was 34.4 million tons (+1.8), and social inventory was 105.9 million tons (unchanged) [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Although there is a short - term emotional rebound, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended in the medium - term [17]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of East China pure benzene was 5290 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 5381 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6385 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.11%, down 0.74%. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 1.21 million tons to 13.47 million tons [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on non - integrated styrene profits before the first quarter of next year, as styrene non - integrated profits are relatively low and there is room for upward valuation repair [20]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 6476 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6510 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.58%, down 0.92%. The production enterprise inventory was 48.78 million tons, up 1.72 million tons, and the trader inventory was 3.56 million tons, down 0.20 million tons [22]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. Short the LL1 - 5 spread on rallies [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 6279 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6275 yuan/ton, unchanged. The upstream operating rate was 77.74%, down 1.66%. The production enterprise inventory was 53.78 million tons, up 0.07 million tons, the trader inventory was 19.83 million tons, down 0.9 million tons, and the port inventory was 6.75 million tons, down 0.07 million tons [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the context of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the market may be supported when the oversupply situation in the cost side changes in the first quarter of next year [25]. Polyester PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 90 yuan to 6862 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 6 dollars to 840 dollars. The Chinese PX load was 88.1%, down 0.1%, and the Asian load was 79.3%, up 0.7%. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. In early December, South Korea's PX exports to China were 13.9 million tons, down 0.5 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of October was 407.4 million tons, up 4.8 million tons month - on - month [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It's expected to see a slight inventory build - up in December. With a neutral valuation, opportunities for going long on dips can be considered [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 64 yuan to 4748 yuan. The East China spot price rose 45 yuan to 4650 yuan. The PTA load was 73.2%, down 0.5%. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 215 million tons as of December 12, down 1.9 million tons [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply is expected to increase after January, and the processing fee is under pressure. With limited upside for the processing fee, opportunities for going long on expected trading can be watched [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 9 yuan to 3767 yuan. The East China spot price was unchanged at 3667 yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 72%, up 2%. The port inventory was 84.4 million tons, up 2.5 million tons [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the domestic supply situation has improved slightly due to unexpected maintenance, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. There is a risk of a rebound due to potential further increases in maintenance [32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon spot prices stabilized, while futures prices rose and then fell. The price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main range between 8000 - 9000 yuan/ton. If production drops significantly, it may reach 10000 yuan/ton; if polysilicon production cuts are large and industrial silicon production cuts fall short of expectations, the price may drop to 7500 yuan/ton. [1] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures prices continued to rise strongly, with a large premium over the spot average. The supply is excessive, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. If production cuts are significant, the futures may remain strong; if not, the high premium may converge to the spot price. [2] Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand in some regions shows resilience. Tin prices are expected to remain strong within the year. [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market was affected by news, with the main contract rising. The fundamentals have not changed much, with both supply and demand being strong. The price may remain strong in the short - term, but there is a risk of a pullback. [5] Nickel - The nickel market was affected by Indonesian nickel ore news and macro factors. The fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price may repair slightly in the short - term, with the main reference range of 112000 - 116000 yuan/ton. [7] Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market was affected by low valuations and nickel price rebounds. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with the main operating range of 12200 - 12800 yuan/ton. [9] Zinc - The zinc market is affected by macro - level risk aversion. The supply is gradually changing from loose to tight, and the demand has a structural improvement. The short - term Shanghai zinc price may be stronger than the London zinc price. [13] Copper - The copper market is affected by macro factors and supply - side concerns. The price bottom has shifted up, and short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by macro events. [14] Aluminum - The alumina market has a pattern of high supply and high inventory, and the price is expected to remain in a bottom - level oscillation. The electrolytic aluminum market is expected to oscillate widely, with the main contract in the range of 21700 - 22400 yuan/ton. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is in a game between strong cost support and weak demand. It is expected to remain in a high - level narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. [18] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of East China oxygen - containing SI5530, SI4210, and Xinjiang 99 silicon remained unchanged on December 17 compared to December 16. The basis of various types decreased. [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of most contracts changed significantly, with some showing large decreases or increases. [1] - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17%, and the national operating rate decreased by 4.84%. The production and operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly, while those in Xinjiang increased slightly. [1] - **Inventory Changes**: Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan factory inventories and social inventories increased slightly, while the change in warehouse receipt inventory was zero. [1] Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The average prices of N - type re - feedstock and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The N - type material basis decreased significantly. [2] - **Futures Prices and Inter - month Spreads**: The main contract price rose, and the inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [2] - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 1.67%, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 14.48%. [2] - **Inventory Changes**: Polysilicon and silicon wafer inventories increased. [2] Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze River 1 tin increased by 1.65%. The LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 12.00%. [4] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed significantly. [4] - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09%. [4] - **Inventory Changes**: SHEF inventory, social inventory, and LME inventory increased. [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of lithium carbonate and related raw materials increased to varying degrees. [5] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [5] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, lithium carbonate production and demand increased, and the inventory decreased. [5] Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: The prices of various types of nickel increased slightly, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel continued to rise. [7] - **Cost of Electrolytic Nickel**: The cost of some methods of producing electrolytic nickel changed. [7] - **New Energy Material Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased slightly. [7] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [7] - **Supply, Demand and Inventory**: Chinese refined nickel production and imports decreased, while domestic inventories increased. [7] Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. [9] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of some raw materials remained stable, while the price of high - carbon ferrochrome increased slightly. [9] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [9] - **Fundamental Data**: Chinese 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports decreased significantly. [9] Zinc - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.69%, and the import loss increased. [13] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [13] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and the operating rates of some downstream industries changed. [13] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese zinc ingot social inventory decreased, while LME inventory increased. [13] Copper - **Prices and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49%, and the premium decreased. [14] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [14] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and the operating rates of some copper - related industries decreased. [14] - **Inventory Changes**: Domestic social inventory increased, while the bonded area inventory decreased. [14] Aluminum Alumina - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of alumina in various regions decreased slightly. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and the operating rate increased slightly. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Alumina plant inventory, port inventory, and electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory increased. [17] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.55%. [17] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production decreased. [17] - **Inventory Changes**: Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased slightly. [17] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of various types of cast aluminum alloy increased slightly. [18] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of some contracts changed. [18] - **Fundamental Data**: In November, the production of regenerated and primary aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the operating rates of related industries increased. [18] - **Inventory Changes**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly. [18]

（文章来源：新华财经） 新加坡企业发展局（ESG）数据显示，截至12月17日当周，新加坡燃料油库存下降140.4万桶，至4周低 点2465.8万桶；轻馏分油库存上涨65000桶达到17周高点1505.6万桶；中馏分油库存上涨71000桶，达到 843.1万桶的两周高点。 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，11 月美国非农新增 | | | | 就业 6.4 万人，高于市场预期，但 10 月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 | | | | 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认，但能否足以改变美联储对 1 | | | | 月降息的看法仍具有不确定性，但明年 1 月降息概率再回升。另外，美国 12 月 Markit | | | | 综合 PMI 初值 53，低于预期 53.9 和前值 54.2，其中制造业和服务业均低于预期，订单 | | | 铜 | 增长放缓，价格指数攀升。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示，扩大内需是明年排在 | | | | 首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME 铜库存维持 165875 | | | | 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 1652 吨至 412444 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3558 吨至 45784 | 吨； | ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）公布数据显示，上周伦锡库存整体先降后增，本周库存继续累积，最新库存 水平为3815吨，增至近十个月新高。 （文华综合） 2023年以来LME和上期所锡库存对比 以下为2025年12月以来LME和上期所锡库存数据：（单位：吨） 注：一般来说，国内外交易所库存不断下降将对期价形成支撑，反之，则对期价有所利空。 | 日期 | LME | 上期所 | | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/12/16 | 3,815 | | | 2025/12/15 | 3, 795 | | | 2025/12/12 | 3, 670 | 7, 391 | | 2025/12/11 | 3, 695 | | | 2025/12/10 | 3, 655 | | | 2025/12/9 | 3.050 | | | 2025/12/8 | 3, 075 | | | 2025/12/5 | 3, 085 | 6, 865 | | 2025/12/4 | 3.175 | | | 2025/12/3 | 3, 195 | | | 2025/12/2 | 3. 145 | | | 2025/12/1 | 3, ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-17 海外库存激增升水转贴水 重要数据 策略 单边：谨慎偏多。 套利：中性。 风险 1、海外矿预期外扰动。2、国内消费不及预期。3、流动性变化超预期。 现货方面：LME锌现货升水为-31.61美元/吨。SMM上海锌现货价较前一交易日变化-290元/吨至23180元/吨，SMM 上海锌现货升贴水85元/吨；SMM广东锌现货价较前一交易日-300元/吨至23090元/吨，广东锌现货升贴水-20元/吨； 天津锌现货价较前一交易日-290元/吨至23090元/吨，天津锌现货升贴水-5元/吨。 期货方面：2025-12-16沪锌主力合约开于23310元/吨，收于23030元/吨，较前一交易日-380元/吨，全天交易日成交 138540手，全天交易日持仓73193手，日内价格最高点达到23345元/吨，最低点达到22935元/吨。 库存方面：截至2025-12-16，SMM七地锌锭库存总量为12.57万吨，较上期变化-0.26万吨。截止2025-12-16，LME 锌库存为95550吨，较上一交易日变化31075吨。 市场分析 海外库存激增升水转为贴水，中国锌锭出口窗口关闭，压制 ...

2025年12月17日 星期三 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 属 市场表现：昨日贵金属价格震荡，国际金价基本收平。 基本面：11 月美非农数据 6.4w，好于预期，但是失业率飙升至 4.6%；美联储内部分歧严重，纽约联储总裁 威廉姆斯表示，美联储上周降息使其处于应对未来挑战的良好位置，并补充说，他认为随着就业市场降温， 通胀将会回落；费城联储主席表示通胀不再是最大敌人，就业下行风险更值得担忧，暗示支持降息；芝加哥 联储主席解释反对降息，表示应等待更多通胀数据；堪萨斯城联储主席解释反对降息理由是通胀过高。国内 黄金 ETF 小幅流入，COMEX 黄金库存为 1118.6 吨，-4.6 吨；上期所黄金库存为 91.3 吨，维持不变；黄金 ETF 持仓为 1053.1 吨，+2.3 吨；伦敦 11 月黄金库存 8906 吨，+48 吨；COMEX 白银库存为 14099.5 吨， -76.4 吨；上期所白银库存为 820.9 吨，+40.3 吨；iShares 白银 ETF 持仓为 16102 吨，+19.7 吨。伦敦 11 月白银库存增加 932 吨至 27183 吨；印度 ...

中辉能化观点 | | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | 俄乌缓和叠加过剩格局未变，油价偏空。地缘：俄乌冲突继续缓和，南美 地缘不确定性上升，美国扣押委内瑞拉油轮；核心驱动：淡季供给过剩， | | 原油 | 消费淡季叠加 | OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原油激增， | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 美国原油和成品油库存均累库，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量： | | | | 美国页岩油产量变化，俄乌以及南美地缘进展。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气走势偏弱。成本端原油，震荡调整，大趋势仍向下； | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，炼厂开工回升，商品量上升，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左 | | ★ | | 右，下游化工需求存在韧性；库存端利空，港口与厂内库存环比上升。 | | | | 两油石化库存增至同期高位，现货跟涨不足，基差大幅走弱。国内开工季 | | L | 节性回升，LL | 加权毛利压缩至同期低位，但塑料多以油制装置为主，乙烯 | | | 空头盘整 | 裂解超预期检修难度相对较高，供 ...